Sunday 8/20/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-20-2023, 10:32 AM

Jeff Siegel's What You Need to Know - Saratoga - 8/20/23

August 20, 2023
“What You Need to Know” - Saratoga
by Jeff Siegel, 1stbet.com Handicapper & Analyst

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, and Workout Commentary identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play

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RACE 1: Post: 1:10 ET Grade: C+
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 1-Fast Kimmie; 2-Strand of Gold; 5-Elle Est Forte
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 3-My Lion; 8-Red Hot Chick.

Forecast: The Sunday opener is a challenging handicapping exercise with several contenders to consider in this restricted (nw-2) $50,000 grass router for fillies and mares. Fast Kimmie, unplaced in her four outings following her maiden special weight win at Gulfstream Park more than a year ago, is realistically lowered in class while seeking her proper level and should fit nicely in this considerably easier spot. The Phil Serpe-trained filly should settle into a second flight, stalking position and then have her chance to rally when called upon. She’s a fit on speed figures, retains Jose Lezcano, and offers a bit of value at 5-1 on the morning line. Strand of Gold broke her maiden in Florida in good style in May, makes her first start since, and while she’s shy of where she needs to be on numbers the lightly raced Lookin At Lucky filly certainly has a right to improve with added experience. Her rail post guarantees a ground saving trip and the presence of Irad Ortiz, Jr., won’t hurt, either. Elle Est Forte is strong on numbers but may lack a winning punch (she’s 1-for-16 with eight seconds and thirds). Like our top pick, she’s dropping into a seller for the first time and should greatly appreciate the soft company.

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RACE 2: Post: 1:44 ET Grade: C+
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 4-Alpine Queen; 3-Liberty Flame
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Alpine Queen nosedives in class in her first start since early May, so her current condition is a big question, but if she brings her best race the veteran mare should be capable of regaining her winning form in this $12,500 sprint for fillies and mares. She’s won over this main track in the past and switches to Luis Saez. Liberty Flame is back where she belongs after being completely out of her element in a starter $50,000 dash last month. She’s a need-the-lead type, and if she can clear the field during the early stages she could get brave late.

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RACE 3: Post: 2:20 ET Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 3-Tass
Backups/savers/Underneath: none.

Forecast: Tass, claimed in her last pair, is raised to the $40,000 ranks for new trainer Rob Atras (a solid 19% with this angle) and has recent speed figures that are good enough to win at this level. She’s drawn nicely inside and projects to enjoy a comfortable stalking trip or, better yet, the role as the controlling speed in this middle distance inner turf affair for fillies and mares. Her record over the local lawn (6-0-0-1) is the one major concern. Let’s take a stand a make her a win play and rolling exotic single at or near her morning line of 5/2.

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RACE 4: Post: 2:52 ET Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 3-Amidst Waves
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.

Forecast: Amidst Waves seeks her third straight win and should be a short price to extend her streak in this year’s edition of the Bolton Landing Stakes for juvenile fillies sprinting on grass. A maiden winner at Belmont Park two races back and then convincing in victory in the Colleen Stakes at Monmouth Park last month, the daughter of Midshipman clearly has found her niche as a grass sprinter, and while she has plenty of speed she is comfortable in a stalk-and-pounce role should the race flow dictate that strategy. At what probably will be a shorter price than her 8/5 morning line, the George Weaver-trained filly seems like a logical rolling exotic single.

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RACE 5: Post: 3:27 ET Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 1-Catherine Wheel; 11-Ella Elizabeth
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.

Forecast: Catherine Wheel, a debuting daughter of Into Mischief, brought $725,000 at the OBS April sale, where she breezed a furlong in a blistering :9 4/5 in effortless fashion. She has been equally impressive in her local drills for Chad Brown and looks to have the ability to win at first asking. And while the rail with a first timer always is a concern, she’s certain to receive a ton of action on the tote (deservedly so) so we’ll be surprised if she doesn’t leave lower than her morning line of 3-1. Ella Elizabeth has the potential to be very good as well, and has the benefit of the cozy outside draw. The daughter of Take Charge Indy was a $510,000 purchase at Timonium in May after previewing in :10 flat over a traditional dirt surface (normally a tick or two slower than the OBS all-weather track) and is a quick-actioned ball of energy with plenty of early zip. We’ll be surprised if the winner isn’t one or the other and while Catherine Wheel gets top billing both should be included in rolling exotic play.

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RACE 6: Post: 4:00 ET Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 8-Lamorna; 1-Steel Lute
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.

Forecast: Lamorna had been very impressive in morning drills leading up to her debut last month and was “supposed” to win, but a poor break cost her valuable early position and she simply was given too much to do when rallying bravely to wind up a close fourth, beaten less than two lengths, while probably best. With that turf sprint behind her and a bullet breeze on grass (3f, :35.1b, fastest of 16) just as few days ago, the daughter of Munnings should be set to graduate in this middle distance turf affair for juvenile fillies. The Bill Mott-trained filly is listed at 7/2 on the morning line and is a gamble at that price. For protection, you should also include on your ticket the Chad Brown-trained Steel Lute, who we believe is better than her 10-1 morning line,. The daughter of Midnight Lute has looked like a nice sort in her recent breezes, gets the rail and Flavian Prat, and should be plenty fit for a big try in her first career outing. Worth noting is that she brought $370,000 at the OBS March sale, where she previewed in :10 flat while displaying a long, athletic stride.
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RACE 7: Post: 4:37 ET Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 5-Bramito; 4-Mount Up; 9-Sundaeswithsandy
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.

Forecast: It’s difficulty to accurately assess the debut performance by Bramito at Ellis Park, because while he was visually pleasing and the number came up very strong, the win was accomplished over a sloppy surface that may (or may not) have moved him up. The son of Gun Runner, a $400,000 2-year-old in training purchase last year, gets a chance today to show what he’s made of in this first level allowance main track miler that hopefully will be staged over a fast track. Mount Up has improving speed figures and will be adding blinkers in this, his fourth career start, so another forward move is likely. The Todd Pletcher-trained son of Army Mule was more than five lengths clear of the rest when a solid runner-up over this track and distance last month and is the one that Bramito may have to fear most. Sundaeswithsandy is fast on figures and may try gate-to-wire tactics from his extreme outside draw. He’s moving up from state-bred company but on his best day he can act at this level.

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RACE 8: Post: 5:14 ET Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 7-Digitize; 2-Magico
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.

Forecast: Trainer Chad Brown saddles the two main contenders in this seven furlong maiden affair for older horses, and both should be included in rolling exotic play. Digitize launches a comeback after displaying some promise in a pair of maiden races back in the spring of 2022. The works at Monmouth Park look solid and should have him plenty fit, so we’re expecting the son of Maclean’s Music to return as well as he left. His speed figures from either one of his 3-year-old races would probably win this race. Stable mate Magico was a distant second in his debut over a sloppy surface at Belmont Park last month and has a right to step forward with that bit of experience behind him. The barn’s record with second time starters (30%) is exemplary, so significant improvement can be expected.

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RACE 9: Post: 5:44 ET Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 9-Java Buzz; 3-Quality G; 2-Empire Attraction
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.

Forecast: Java Buzz joins the Linda Rice barn for his first start since March, and the committed front runner will employ his usual tactics in this restricted (nw-2) $35,000 inner turf route affair that projects to have a soft early pace. He’s performed well over this course in the past and can fire fresh as well, so we’re hoping the Mshawish gelding can wire the field at 7/2 on the morning line. Quality G has as good stalking style and is likely to be first over on ‘Buzz should that one fail to stay the trip. The son of Quality Road has gradually improving speed figures, and with another forward move he’ll give our top pick all he can handle. Empire Attraction, freshened for a couple of months and a recent arrival from South Florida, lands Irad Ortiz, Jr. and has finished first or second in five of eight career starts. He’s a tad light on numbers but should at least get a piece of it.

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RACE 10: Post: 6:21 ET Grade: C+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 2-Conquist; 9-Chalky Chalk
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.

Forecast: Conquist is a 12-race maiden and certainly not one to trust, but his edge in speed figures over the rest of this maiden claiming sprint field is readily apparent so perhaps he has finally found a field he can outrun. Chalky Cat shows up in a modest seller for the first time after chasing straight maiden in his first four career starts. His numbers are moderately competitive, so we’ll include him on our ticket as well.

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**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-20-2023, 10:32 AM

Al Cimaglia: The Red Mile Early Pick 4 Analysis

August 20, 2023 | By Al Cimaglia
The Red Mile has a 13-race matinee card ready to go with a 1:00 PM EST first post. The $1.00 Early Pick 4 starts in Race 6. The sequence has a $10,000 guaranteed pool with a very low 12% takeout.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 6 (2:35 PM EST)

5-Longfellow S (3-1)-Has raced from the back in both starts and has no issue going a .56 back half. Sears could land closer to the lead off the gate this time. Looks like a player, and certainly could double up.
6-Vocalize (20-1)-Todd McCarthy takes over for his brother and this Alagna pupil has learned some lesson in the last 2 starts. Raced from the back in his debut and then left aggressively from post 7 and faded. My guess is, a pocket ride behind the one below is not out of the question. Could rally down the lane and pop at a price.
7-Karl (8/5)-This Takter pupil had his way with the last field at M1. Drew off by 6 lengths but went to the 1/2 in a tepid 58.2 and that probably won't happen here. Will respect connections, Yannick Gingras will be headed for the top and the price will be small.

Race 7 (2:54 PM EST)

1-Prideful (7-1)-Will fade #3-Two Pistol Annie (9/5) and look for some value in this leg. Has hit the board in 6 of 7 at The Red Mile and should compete with this crew. Andy Miller could get the 2-hole and use an efficient trip to take a picture.
7-Duchenne (7/2)-This 3-year-old was in with some tough customers this year at Wbsb and PcD. In the 1st race here was driven from the back and came the 2nd half in a lively 54.2 with a 26.2 last quarter. That was a nice debut, short field shouldn't hurt and will look for another big try today.

Race 8 (3:13 PM EST)

1-Samwise The Brave (3-1)-Beaten chalk has been conservatively handled in all 3 races. This is only a 2-year-old learning its lessons. But the teaching point this time could be to race near the top of the stack and that can lead to a win.
2-Six Pack Mack (2-1)-Morning line chalk deserves that status and comes off a very nice effort. Was used a couple of times in a quick mile and faded late. Won't be anywhere near 19-1 but should be a main player and hopefully isn't over bet.
6-JGS Pal (5/2)-Drew off versus this kind in its Lex debut on 7-30 and then broke at the start the following race. Will respect the Linda Toscano-Scott Zeron combo and will look for much better with a flat mile.

Race 9 (3:32 PM EST)

2-Pick Pocket (3-2)-The Stable 2-year-old looks like a good one but not sure the colt is 3/2 worthy. That said, should be in the mix and if improves off the last win in the 2nd time hoppled, there could be more value than appears.
5-Fly By (8-1)-Hoping the morning line price holds true because this could be a chance to get on the engine or in the 2 hole off the gate. Willing to take a swing we will see better from this Chapter 7 colt.
7-Show Me (4-1)-Team Miller entry was able to land on the point with a 28.3 opening quarter but still faded down the lane. My guess is a different trip happens today. Not going to criticize the last performance as much as some. Got on the engine and went to the 3/4's in 1.26 and that took its toll. Not sure anyone in this group would do much better and could be a square price.

$1.00 Early Pick 4

5,6,7/1,7/1,2,6/2,5,7
Total Bet=$54

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-20-2023, 10:33 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Ellis Park - Race #5

#4 Mya's Halo	Price probably isn't going to be much here, but she flashed some dangerous pace in that debut run here last month, and another good break could make her the one to catch again today. Tough with any upside.
#10 Whatta World	Wouldn't be shocked to see him land this as a reasonable alternative while moving into a barn that does pretty good work with these types. Prompting pace draws well for the turf debut.
#2 Star Performance	She didn't show much in the debut, but I think it's at least a little encouraging that she comes back at the same trip for this second career start. Needs a lot better, but the price might be ok.
Race Summary	Mya's Halo had sharp speed and just couldn't stay in that first try here in July, but she's not meeting a ton of super serious early burn on paper and might scoot away while racing for a new team.

Ellis Park - Race #7

#3 Rock to Fame	Get a look at him on the track and tote ahead of this, but the price is probably going to be right for a team that has always been capable of getting youngsters ready to go early. Sneaky chance with this solid-looking group.
#8 Flotation Station	He chased and stayed on well in that first try, and he's got a right to stick around better here with that experience under his belt. Price probably gets a lot shorter today.
#6 Alder	He turned in a bullet work since the first trip to post ended with him declared a non-starter, but I worry he's going to be overbet in a race that doesn't feel like one of the softer ones for the level.
Race Summary	Rock to Fame might have a claim on this at a decent price while going first out, and it's likely the other two listed here will take their share of cash. Think 'Fame has a fairly intriguing win-early profile.

Ellis Park - Race #8

#7 Gunton Roe	Price might be right to give him a look with turf form that actually holds up pretty well, and he's more committed to the pace than most in here. Wouldn't be a real surprise to see him win right back.
#3 Corelli	He ran on well enough in that Gulfstream try going long off the lengthy layoff, and he'll have to fire fresh to score today -- I just wonder how much upside he has at this point in time. Capable class.
#5 Ethical Judgement	He has a little versatility in running style that should serve him well to track the top choice early, and he has some pretty tough customers in those company lines over the last year. Think he should be on the tickets.
Race Summary	Gunton Roe was nearly 16/1 when scoring on the engine last out, and he might be able to control the tempo again this time around. His form is pretty appealing when just isolating the turf races on the page.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-20-2023, 10:33 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Ely

PURCHASE

Ely - Race 5	$2 Win, Place, Show $2 2nd Half Daily Double $2 Exacta / $2 Quinella / $2 Trifecta($1 Box)
Trial • 5 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 89 • Purse: $6,500 • Post: 3:00P
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND OLDER. NO ENTRY FEE. (HORSES THAT ENTER TRIALS ELIGIBLE FOR THE ELY/ELKO STAKES TO BE RUN IN ELKO, TOP 4 FROM EACH TRIAL HAVE FIRST PREFERENCE.).

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Dominant Class. BETTOR TRIP NICK is the Dominant Class of the race. * KEY ANGLES * BETTOR TRIP NICK: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse ha s the highest average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface.
4	BETTOR TRIP NICK	8/5	9/5

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
4	BETTOR TRIP NICK	4	8/5	Front-runner	97	93	97.8	86.2	84.2
6	DARKSABER	6	9/2	Front-runner	76	70	96.0	71.0	65.5
1	SOLA	1	3/1	Front-runner	79	78	0.0	70.2	63.7
3	ROYAL TAP	3	5/2	Front-runner	80	77	0.0	62.6	54.1
2	ACE AND KINGS	2	8/1	Stalker	79	84	66.0	59.0	52.0
5	TOOTHLESS WONDER	5	10/1	Alternator/Non-contender	75	67	0.0	56.4	44.4

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-20-2023, 10:34 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Los Alamitos (Quarter Horse)PURCHASE

Los Alamitos (Quarter Horse) - Race 6	$1 Exacta / $1 Trifecta Superfecta (.10 cent minimum wager) $1 Pick Four
Allowance • 110 Yards • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 85 • Purse: $13,700 • Post: 8:32P
QUARTER HORSE 110Y, FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 126 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * KOALITION: Quarter horse has the highest last race Equibase Speed Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. AJ RUN FOR CASH: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Pow er Rating. Jockey/Trainer combination return on investment is at least +20. LA BEVERLY HILLS: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. DOCS BEST WOMAN: Quarter Horse has a Fast Break Style designation and no horse in a post positi on next to it gets out of the gate fast. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
3	KOALITION	9/5	4/1
6	AJ RUN FOR CASH	7/2	6/1
5	LA BEVERLY HILLS	5/2	7/1
4	DOCS BEST WOMAN	4/1	9/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	PRINCESA ROCK	1	8/1	Average	76	68	0.0	0.0	0.0
2	KNOCK YOUR FAVORITE	2	10/1	Average	71	63	0.0	0.0	0.0
3	KOALITION	3	9/5	Average	88	86	5.7	0.0	0.0
4	DOCS BEST WOMAN	4	4/1	Fast	77	76	2.8	0.0	0.0
5	LA BEVERLY HILLS	5	5/2	Average	89	80	4.2	0.0	0.0
6	AJ RUN FOR CASH	6	7/2	Average	83	84	5.4	0.0	0.0

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-20-2023, 10:34 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Emerald Downs

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 11 - Claiming - 5.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $9500 Class Rating: 77

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON TWO RACES SINCE FEBRUARY 20, 2023 OR WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE SINCE MAY 20, 2023 OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $3,500

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 6 SEVEN SISTERS 6/5
# 5 V BUCKS 4/1
# 1 HEAT SEEKING LETA 9/2

SEVEN SISTERS is tough to overlook as the bet in here. Should finish in the top three without any worries. With a reliable 72 average speed figure at the distance, seems well suited for today's race. With one of the top riders in terms of profits at the window, don't count this mare out. V BUCKS - She has been racing solidly recently while recording strong speed figures. Is a solid choice - given the 76 speed fig from her most recent race. HEAT SEEKING LETA - The average class fig of 70 makes this one difficult to beat. Must be given a chance - I like the figs from the last outing.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-20-2023, 10:34 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Monmouth Park - Race #4 - Post: 2:03pm - Maiden Special - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $71,875 Class Rating: 55

Rating:

#2 LILY THE KID (ML=8/1)
#6 KATE'S CUBAN KISS (ML=6/1)

LILY THE KID - The race may set up nicely for this racer's late kick and she's probably the best late runner in the field. Dropping 7 lbs from last race. Could be a deciding factor today. KATE'S CUBAN KISS - Faced tougher last race out at Monmouth Park. Based on class figures, this is a weaker bunch, so I will put this horse on my list of probable winners in this race. Krebs moves this filly to the main track today. Look for a significant improvement from the most recent race on the turf.

Vulnerable Contenders: #8 CARATS FOREVER (ML=3/5), #1 WITHOUT A NET (ML=5/1), #3 ROCKY SEAS (ML=8/1),

CARATS FOREVER - Didn't come through as the public's top choice twice. Probably won't gain a winning effort today either. This filly didn't race too well last time out of the box. WITHOUT A NET - No picnic to play any less than sharp equine in a short distance event if she hasn't finished in the money in a sprint in the last 60 days. Registered a mediocre speed rating last time around the track in a Maiden Special race on July 23rd. Improbable to see an improved performance off of that figure. ROCKY SEAS - 8/1 odds isn't enough for this one when checking the most recent efforts. No success for this entrant in a sprint race over the last two months tells me that this filly is in a formidable situation not probable that the speed figure she recorded on July 21st will be enough in this race.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#2 LILY THE KID is going to be the play if we are getting 3/1 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [2,6]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	None
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-20-2023, 10:34 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Gulfstream Park

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 4 - Claiming - 8.3f on the Dirt. Purse: $20000 Class Rating: 74

FOR FILLIES THREE YEARS OLD OR FILLIES AND MARES FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $8,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 7 TAPPLE CIDER 5/2
# 1 FORBIDDEN DREAM 7/2
# 3 TAKE THE PODIUM 3/1

TAPPLE CIDER looks to be a very good contender. Earnings per start in dirt route races is solid for this pony. Has quite good Equibase Class Figures relative to this field - worth a look. With a strong 74 average speed figure at the distance, seems well suited for today's affair. FORBIDDEN DREAM - With Scampton in the saddle guiding her, this mare will probably be able to break out sharply in this race. Could best this group based on the speed figure - 68 - of her last race. TAKE THE PODIUM - Pinchin has this filly running well and is a formidable choice based on the very strong speed figures posted in route races lately.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-20-2023, 10:35 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Prairie Meadows - Race #9 - Post: 7:24pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $17,800 Class Rating: 85

Rating:

#3 LUCKY DUDE (ML=2/1)

LUCKY DUDE - Gonzalez and Johnston partnered together are a handicapper's friend. My expertise says this is the sole presser in the race. This campaigner coming off a strong effort in the last thirty days is a solid contender in my humble opinion.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 HUNKA BURNING LOVE (ML=9/5), #4 ONCE UPON A DREAM (ML=7/2), #2 REPLETE (ML=4/1),

HUNKA BURNING LOVE - This gelding hasn't been getting the job done as the chalk. ONCE UPON A DREAM - This gelding earned a speed figure in his last event which probably isn't good enough today. REPLETE - That was merely not a very good showing in the last race.

GUEST COMMENTARY: The Brain - LUCKY DUDE - A tried and true angle. Take a sprinter in the third and fourth start after a mini 'vacation'. That's the time when they peak.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#3 LUCKY DUDE is going to be the play if we are getting 1/1 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	Skip
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	None

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-20-2023, 10:36 AM

Saratoga Tip Sheet - August 20

Aug. 19, 2023

Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 64% of the time at this track.

RACE #1 $50,000 CLAIMING 1 1/16 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 1:10 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	5-2	5	Elle Est Forte	L Saez
PLACE	8-1	9	Lady Firefoot	K Carmouche
SHOW	8-1	12	Tap It Up	D Davis
WILD CARD	12-1	7	Smokin Hot Kitty	R Santana Jr.

ALTERNATE 1	5-1	1A	Miscreant	L Saez
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	4	From Hello	K Davis

* EXACTA: 5-9 BOX, 9-12 BOX, 12-7 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 5/9/12 BOX, 7/9/12 BOX

RACE #2 $12,500 CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 1:44 PM ET
BEST BET: #4 ALPINE QUEEN

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	2-1	4	Alpine Queen	L Saez
PLACE	3-1	5	Sue Ellen Mishkin	R Santana Jr.
SHOW	5-2	6	Diva Banker	I Ortiz Jr.
WILD CARD	8-1	2	Backed by Gold	O Hernandez Moreno

ALTERNATE 1	6-1	3	Liberty Flame	D Davis
ALTERNATE 2	6-1	1	Beautiful Karen	J A Torres

* EXACTA: 4-5 BOX, 5-6 BOX, 6-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4/5/6 BOX, 2/5/6 BOX

RACE #3 $40,000 CLAIMING 1 1/16 MILES ON THE INNER TURF - POST TIME: 2:20 PM ET
BEST BET: #6 CAFE FLEUR

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	2-1	6	Cafe Fleur	I Ortiz Jr.
PLACE	6-1	2	Strong Odor	M Franco
SHOW	5-2	3	Tass	D Davis
WILD CARD	3-1	8	Halo City	M Franco

ALTERNATE 1	8-1	5	Peace Seeker	K Carmouche
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	7	Toned Up	R Santana Jr.

* EXACTA: 6-2 BOX, 2-3 BOX, 3-8 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/3/6 BOX, 2/3/8 BOX

RACE #4 $150,000 STAKES 5 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 2:52 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	7-2	4	Gram	J Rosario
PLACE	8-5	3	Amidst Waves	I Ortiz Jr.
SHOW	6-1	6	Astonesthrowaway	L Saez
WILD CARD	7-2	2	Crown Imperial	T Gaffalione

ALTERNATE 1	4-1	5	Shes Fire	J L Ortiz
ALTERNATE 2	10-1	1	Takemetothebeach	R Montanez

* EXACTA: 4-3 BOX, 3-6 BOX, 6-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/4/6 BOX, 2/3/6 BOX

RACE #5 $136,500 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:27 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	3-1	1	Catherine Wheel	I Ortiz Jr.
PLACE	7-2	5	Candied	L Saez
SHOW	6-1	9	Dancing Nancy	F Prat
WILD CARD	10-1	3	Most of All	J Lezcano

ALTERNATE 1	6-1	6	Munny Rockette	J Alvarado
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	4	Brookmesa	K Carmouche

* EXACTA: 1-5 BOX, 5-9 BOX, 9-3 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/5/9 BOX, 3/5/9 BOX

RACE #6 $136,500 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 1 1/16 MILES ON THE INNER TURF - POST TIME: 4:02 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	6-1	10	Snow Dance	J Lezcano
PLACE	7-2	8	Lamorna	L Saez
SHOW	10-1	3	Buchu	T Gaffalione
WILD CARD	5-1	5	Growth Rate	J L Ortiz

ALTERNATE 1	8-1	11	Sassy Princess	T Gaffalione
ALTERNATE 2	6-1	6	Goodnight My Angel	I Ortiz Jr.

* EXACTA: 10-8 BOX, 8-3 BOX, 3-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/8/10 BOX, 3/5/8 BOX

RACE #7 $149,500 ALLOWANCE 1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:37 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	8-1	10	Chileno	M Franco
PLACE	2-1	5	Bramito	T Gaffalione
SHOW	8-1	4	Mount Up	I Ortiz Jr.
WILD CARD	4-1	9	Sundaeswithsandy	K Carmouche

ALTERNATE 1	20-1	6	Fromanothamutha	D Davis
ALTERNATE 2	10-1	2	Set Sail	J Alvarado

* EXACTA: 10-5 BOX, 5-4 BOX, 4-9 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4/5/10 BOX, 4/5/9 BOX

RACE #8 $136,500 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 7 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 5:14 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	3-1	2	Magico	M Franco
PLACE	5-2	7	Digitize	F Prat
SHOW	8-1	6	Silo Ridge	L Saez
WILD CARD	9-2	9	Black Rain	I Ortiz Jr.

ALTERNATE 1	8-1	5	Quality Chic	J L Ortiz
ALTERNATE 2	15-1	3	Macho Villa	T Gaffalione

* EXACTA: 2-7 BOX, 7-6 BOX, 6-9 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/6/7 BOX, 6/7/9 BOX

RACE #9 $35,000 CLAIMING 1 1/16 MILES ON THE INNER TURF - POST TIME: 5:48 PM ET
BEST BET: #13 GATE RUNNER

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	5-2	13	Gate Runner	Rider TBA
PLACE	3-1	3	Quality G	M Franco
SHOW	4-1	2	Empire Attraction	I Ortiz Jr.
WILD CARD	7-2	9	Java Buzz	J L Ortiz

ALTERNATE 1	5-1	10	Forwardly	T Gaffalione
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	6	Billys Got Issues	D Davis

* EXACTA: 13-3 BOX, 3-2 BOX, 2-9 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/3/13 BOX, 2/3/9 BOX

RACE #10 $30,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 6:21 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	4-1	10	Mudville Nine	J L Ortiz
PLACE	5-2	9	Chalky Cat	K Carmouche
SHOW	10-1	3	Two Chuckles	T Gaffalione
WILD CARD	5-1	5	Under the Knife	I Ortiz Jr.

ALTERNATE 1	9-2	2	Conquist	J A Torres
ALTERNATE 2	15-1	8	Woodside Warrior	D Davis

* EXACTA: 10-9 BOX, 9-3 BOX, 3-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/9/10 BOX, 3/5/9 BOX

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-20-2023, 10:37 AM

Ellis Park Tip Sheet - August 20

Aug. 19, 2023

Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 65% of the time at this track.

RACE #1 $50,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING 5 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 12:45 PM ET
BEST BET: #9 WRECK IT RUBY

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	5-2	9	Wreck It Ruby	T Heard
PLACE	6-1	2	Sweetcatherinerose	C A Torres
SHOW	5-1	6	Sweet Guitar	J Talamo
WILD CARD	10-1	7	Honkey Tonk Time	E Morales

ALTERNATE 1	12-1	8	Blame Game	J Gilligan
ALTERNATE 2	5-1	1	Espere	D Cohen

* EXACTA: 9-2 BOX, 2-6 BOX, 6-7 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/6/9 BOX, 2/6/7 BOX

RACE #2 $10,000 CLAIMING 1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 1:14 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	7-2	4	Mad Adam	E Morales
PLACE	3-1	6	Boldish	Y Navas
SHOW	8-1	5	Mr. Peterkin	D Cannon
WILD CARD	5-2	3	Santa Cruiser	C J Hernandez

ALTERNATE 1	5-1	2	Orient Magic	A Ortiz
ALTERNATE 2	15-1	1	El Franco	L Machado

* EXACTA: 4-6 BOX, 6-5 BOX, 5-3 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4/5/6 BOX, 3/5/6 BOX

RACE #3 $30,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING 1 1/8 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 1:43 PM ET
BEST BET: #8 SIMPLY JACK

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	4-1	8	Simply Jack	C A Emigh
PLACE	5-1	6	Brown Liquor Man	G Corrales
SHOW	3-1	4	My Uncle Frank	J Talamo
WILD CARD	7-2	9	My Brother Keith	C A Torres

ALTERNATE 1	20-1	3	Stroke of Midnight	L Machado
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	7	Coal Boss	M Murrill

* EXACTA: 8-6 BOX, 6-4 BOX, 4-9 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4/6/8 BOX, 4/6/9 BOX

RACE #4 $16,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING 1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:13 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	9-5	5	Shortly	C A Emigh
PLACE	9-2	2	Time to Meddle	C J Lanerie
SHOW	3-1	4	Booster Shot	E Morales
WILD CARD	6-1	7	My Favorite Uncle	D Cannon

ALTERNATE 1	5-1	6	The Big Mozz	T C Stevens
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	1	Storm Strategy	W A Rodriguez

* EXACTA: 5-2 BOX, 2-4 BOX, 4-7 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/4/5 BOX, 2/4/7 BOX

RACE #5 $70,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 5 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 2:45 PM ET
BEST BET: #4 MYAS HALO

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	2-1	4	Myas Halo	D Cannon
PLACE	5-2	16	Wonder Wave	R Bejarano
SHOW	10-1	8	Krickle	T Heard
WILD CARD	8-1	3	Star Performance	G Corrales

ALTERNATE 1	8-1	10	Whatta World	E Morales
ALTERNATE 2	10-1	5	Walk Street	R Bejarano

* EXACTA: 4-16 BOX, 16-8 BOX, 8-3 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4/8/16 BOX, 3/8/16 BOX

RACE #6 $74,000 ALLOWANCE 6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:18 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	3-1	6	Elite Forces	G Corrales
PLACE	5-2	5	Pensacola	A Achard
SHOW	5-1	4	Elis Promise	M Murrill
WILD CARD	8-1	1	Spend Benjamins	R Bejarano

ALTERNATE 1	2-1	3	B Sudd	R Gutierrez
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	2	Lupos Legacy	C A Emigh

* EXACTA: 6-5 BOX, 5-4 BOX, 4-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4/5/6 BOX, 1/4/5 BOX

RACE #7 $70,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 5 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:50 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	5-1	8	Flotation Station	K J Asmussen
PLACE	6-1	5	Runnin Rocket	J Graham
SHOW	2-1	6	Alder	G Corrales
WILD CARD	3-1	1	Rowdy Riot	M Garcia

ALTERNATE 1	8-1	2	Ceepeegee	D Cannon
ALTERNATE 2	10-1	7	Tapitboy	C A Torres

* EXACTA: 8-5 BOX, 5-6 BOX, 6-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 5/6/8 BOX, 1/5/6 BOX

RACE #8 $80,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING 1 1/16 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 4:22 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	7-2	1	Vintage Print	G Corrales
PLACE	9-2	6	Tuts Revenge	R Bejarano
SHOW	12-1	7	Gunton Roe	C A Torres
WILD CARD	6-1	5	Ethical Judgement	M Garcia

ALTERNATE 1	5-2	3	Corelli	A Beschizza
ALTERNATE 2	10-1	8	Decision Maker	J Graham

* EXACTA: 1-6 BOX, 6-7 BOX, 7-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/6/7 BOX, 5/6/7 BOX

RACE #9 $16,000 CLAIMING 1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 4:55 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	4-1	9	Fixitwithforward	J Talamo
PLACE	2-1	3	Ten Count	C A Emigh
SHOW	3-1	10	Lemon Drop Shot	R Bejarano
WILD CARD	8-1	7	Magna Ruler	J Padron-Barcenas

ALTERNATE 1	5-1	1	Levy	D Cannon
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	5	Born Flawless	M Murrill

* EXACTA: 9-3 BOX, 3-10 BOX, 10-7 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/9/10 BOX, 3/7/10 BOX

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-20-2023, 10:37 AM

Monmouth Park Tip Sheet - August 20

Aug. 19, 2023

Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 67% of the time at this track.

RACE #1 $14,000 CLAIMING 1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 12:40 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	3-1	7	Tap the Candy	A A Rodriguez
PLACE	9-2	5	Pleasant Valiant	J Rendon
SHOW	12-1	11	Morethanicanhandle	L R Rivera Jr.
WILD CARD	10-1	6	Okletsgo	S Marin

ALTERNATE 1	6-1	10	General Command	M Iorio
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	9	Steel Pier	L R Rivera Jr.

* EXACTA: 7-5 BOX, 5-11 BOX, 11-6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 5/7/11 BOX, 5/6/11 BOX

RACE #2 $14,000 CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 1:08 PM ET
BEST BET: #4 WHEELINGNDEALING

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	5-2	4	Wheelingndealing	S Marin
PLACE	2-1	3	Astonishing Anabel	P Lopez
SHOW	3-1	5	Belmar Summer	M Olver
WILD CARD	8-1	6	London Lady	J Rendon

ALTERNATE 1	4-1	1	Angelas Party Girl	A A Rodriguez
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	2	Throwback	L R Rivera Jr.

* EXACTA: 4-3 BOX, 3-5 BOX, 5-6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/4/5 BOX, 3/5/6 BOX

RACE #3 $57,500 ALLOWANCE 5 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 1:35 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	6-1	3	Tapestry Colors	J Rendon
PLACE	10-1	5	On the Payroll	N Juarez
SHOW	3-1	1	Miss Sakamoto	J A Gomez
WILD CARD	4-1	9	Athenas Wisdom	S Camacho

ALTERNATE 1	4-1	6	Hihellohowareyou	S Camacho
ALTERNATE 2	7-2	8	Insatiable	P Lopez

* EXACTA: 3-5 BOX, 5-1 BOX, 1-9 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/3/5 BOX, 1/5/9 BOX

RACE #4 $71,875 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:03 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	3-5	8	Carats Forever	S Marin
PLACE	8-1	2	Lily the Kid	M Martin
SHOW	8-1	3	Rocky Seas	N Juarez
WILD CARD	15-1	4	Twyla	F Gonzalez Jr.

ALTERNATE 1	20-1	7	Charlize Chub	L J Luzzi
ALTERNATE 2	5-1	1	Without a Net	J A Gomez

* EXACTA: 8-2 BOX, 2-3 BOX, 3-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/3/8 BOX, 2/3/4 BOX

RACE #5 $55,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 5 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 2:30 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	3-1	7	Horsepower	S Marin
PLACE	9-2	12	Johnny From Boston	P Lopez
SHOW	8-1	6	Bingo Was His Name	L J Luzzi
WILD CARD	7-2	1	Donegal Dreamer	J Rendon

ALTERNATE 1	5-1	4	Perrotto	P Lopez
ALTERNATE 2	6-1	3	Roi Soleil	T McCarthy

* EXACTA: 7-12 BOX, 12-6 BOX, 6-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 6/7/12 BOX, 1/6/12 BOX

RACE #6 $25,000 CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:57 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	2-1	1	One America	P Lopez
PLACE	5-1	4	Threethirtythree	L J Luzzi
SHOW	9-2	7	Lookin Super	L R Rivera Jr.
WILD CARD	3-1	8	East Coast Girl	S Camacho

ALTERNATE 1	8-1	2	Cowboy Jim	J Rendon
ALTERNATE 2	10-1	3	Cantankerous Cat	S Marin

* EXACTA: 1-4 BOX, 4-7 BOX, 7-8 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/4/7 BOX, 4/7/8 BOX

RACE #7 $57,500 ALLOWANCE 5 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 3:26 PM ET
BEST BET: #6 YEAGER

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	7-2	6	Yeager	P Lopez
PLACE	10-1	13	Hardscrabble	N Juarez
SHOW	4-1	2	Baby Boomer	A A Rodriguez
WILD CARD	8-1	3	Tap First	J Torres

ALTERNATE 1	10-1	4	Fitts	S Marin
ALTERNATE 2	3-1	7	King Moonracer	S Camacho

* EXACTA: 6-13 BOX, 13-2 BOX, 2-3 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/6/13 BOX, 2/3/13 BOX

RACE #8 $200,000 STAKES 1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:55 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	7-2	6	Princess Indy	C E Rojas
PLACE	8-1	2	Dlightful Summer	S Camacho
SHOW	12-1	1	Mila Junes	J A Vargas Jr.
WILD CARD	9-5	7	Wine On Tap	T McCarthy

ALTERNATE 1	5-1	4	Lagonisi	J Ruiz
ALTERNATE 2	9-2	8	Classy Mischief	P Lopez

* EXACTA: 6-2 BOX, 2-1 BOX, 1-7 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/6 BOX, 1/2/7 BOX

RACE #9 $14,000 CLAIMING 1 1/16 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 4:24 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	8-1	7	Stirlings Gold	S Camacho
PLACE	4-1	1	Couth	M Olver
SHOW	7-2	4	Larger Than Life	J A Vargas Jr.
WILD CARD	3-1	2	I Lucked Out	P Lopez

ALTERNATE 1	15-1	8	Chief Engineer	L R Rivera Jr.
ALTERNATE 2	9-2	12	Husband Material	N Juarez

* EXACTA: 7-1 BOX, 1-4 BOX, 4-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/4/7 BOX, 1/2/4 BOX

RACE #10 $7,000 CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:52 PM ET
BEST BET: #7 MISTER J T

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	3-1	7	Mister J T	J Rendon
PLACE	2-1	5	Box of Chocolates	P Lopez
SHOW	7-2	4	Mr. Extension	C Olivero
WILD CARD	12-1	1	Shea On the Lam	C E Rojas

ALTERNATE 1	6-1	3	Justinspeightofit	N Juarez
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	2	Tankinator	R Mitchell

* EXACTA: 7-5 BOX, 5-4 BOX, 4-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4/5/7 BOX, 1/4/5 BOX

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-20-2023, 10:37 AM

Saratoga Hotlist - August 20

Aug. 19, 2023

By Matt Shifman and Bob Ehalt
Hot List Key:
A: A preferred horse to watch B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4^th or worse
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.
2^nd race [Clm 12500, 6F] – (4) Alpine Queen makes a significant drop down to the lowest level in recent races. At Aqueduct she had a win and a second against much better company. (3) Liberty Flame also drops down with good races against better and is projected to be on the lead against this field. (6) Diva Banker was claimed for $32,000 twice recently with a second-place finish at that level and 10 wins in her career. (5) Sue Ellen Mishkin was claimed for $20,000 at Churchill Downs in November and ran against better since the allowance wins at Oaklawn Park and at Indiana.
4^th race [Bolton Landing, 5

**ConleyPicks** · 08-20-2023, 11:18 AM

Free play from Mike Wynn
Free Pick: Baltimore w/Bradish -190 over Oakland