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Sunday 8/20/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc
Sean Murphy Sunday MLB Free play. My selection is on Houston over Seattle at 1:05 pm et on Sunday.
Sean is 6-4 L10 Free Plays
Mariners rookie Emerson Hancock has been very fortunate to go undefeated in his first two big league starts, despite allowing six earned runs on 11 hits and three walks while striking out only four in 10 innings of work. Here, I look for the Astros bats to catch up with him and help avoid the series sweep at home. Hunter Brown is coming off a shaky start for Houston but still worked six innings for a fourth straight outing. He's been at his best in daytime starts this season, recording a 3.32 ERA and 1.18 WHIP in 40 2/3 innings while guiding the Astros to a 5-2 record. Despite the team's overall struggles in this series, the Astros bullpen continues to pitch well, logging a 2.91 ERA and 0.92 WHIP over the last seven games. Houston has blown only four saves at home all season. Take Houston.
Jack's Free Pick Sunday: Tigers/Guardians UNDER 7.5
Jack Jones is 7-3 L10 and on a 4-0 streak
There are expected to be 10-15 MPH winds blowing in from left-center in Cleveland today that will make runs hard to come by between the Tigers and Guardians. These are two of the worst offenses in baseball as it is. The Guardians hit .245 and score 3.6 runs per game at home, while the Tigers hit .224 and score 4.0 runs per game on the road.
Ace Eduardo Rodriquez goes for the Tigers today. He is 8-6 with a 3.13 ERA and 1.100 WHIP in 18 starts this season. Rodriquez is also 4-0 with a 2.59 ERA and 1.056 WHIP in six career starts against the Guardians.
Logan Allen is 6-5 with a 3.33 ERA in 18 starts for the Guardians this season, including 2-1 with a 1.59 ERA in his last three. He should shut down a Detroit lineup that has been held to 4 runs or fewer in seven of its last nine games overall. The Guardians have been held to 4 runs or fewer in five consecutive games.
Cleveland is 30-8 UNDER vs. division opponents this season. The UNDER is 8-1 in nine meetings between the Guardians and Tigers this season with 7 or fewer combined runs in eight of the nine games. Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.
Two of the worst starting pitchers in baseball go in this game between the Pittsburgh Pirates and Minnesota Twins today. Osvaldo Bido is 0-2 with a 6.06 ERA and 1.47 WHIP in eight starts for the Pirates this season, including 0-1 with a 9.31 ERA and 1.45 WHIP in his last three. Dallas Keuchel is 0-1 with a 9.45 ERA and 2.70 WHIP in two starts for the Twins this season, giving up 7 earned runs and 18 base runners in 6 2/3 innings. The OVER is 27-15 in Pirates last 42 games overall. Give me the OVER.
This is a play on the NEW YORK METS for our Sunday Free Play. Two of the biggest disappointments in baseball square off for the series finale Sunday with the Mets looking for the sweep. New York has won four straight games and six of its last seven although it might be too little, two late as the Mets are six games back in the Wild Card. The Cardinals have dropped four straight games following a 5-1 run and they remain well back in the playoff picture and are just riding this one out. The offense has been non-existent, scoring just five runs total during this losing streak. Carlos Carrasco looks to keep them in check as he had a horrible run of four straight starts but has rebounded with a pair of decent efforts although his last one was just three innings. Dakota Hudson counters for St. Louis and he has been average since making his debut last month. In four starts, he has a 4.15 ERA and he has struggled with the long ball while not missing many bats, posting just 13 strikeouts. Here, we play against home teams with a starting pitcher whose gives up 1 or more home runs per start and after two straight games where the bullpen allowed four or more earned runs. This situation is 66-33 (66.7 percent) since 1997. Play (903) New York Mets
At Professionalsportspicks we see a future where those handicapping sports without advanced analytics and data-driven strategies will be left behind. Our data-driven picks use data integration, search and discovery, and knowledge management along with collaboration with our in-house handicappers. By isolating relevant trends, removing human bias, and targeting only lines with a positive expected value above a certain threshold, our data-driven picks promise to outperform any and all human competitors.
Our models suggest that the value is on the favorite. Chi Cubs are 10-4 in their last 14 home games. Kansas City are 1-4 in their last 5 overall.
Jeff Alexander is 5-5 on L10 but is on a 0-4 FP streak
1* MLB - Brewers/Rangers FREE Pick on Rangers -1.5, +100
Sunday's Free MLB Pick is on the Texas Rangers to cover the -1.5 run line at home against the Milwaukee Brewers. I really like the Rangers to put an end to their 3-game skid with a comfortable win today. Texas will have Max Scherzer on the mound in this one. Scherzer has a 1.80 ERA and 0.800 WHIP in his last 3 starts. He's got a 2.15 ERA in 9 home starts. Rangers are 7-2 in those 9 starts. Adrian Houser will be on the mound for Milwaukee. He's got a 4.81 ERA and 1.488 WHIP in 8 road starts this season. I could see Texas putting up a big number here, but they probably don't need more than 5 to win here by 2 or more. Bet the Rangers -1.5, +100!
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