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Saturday 8/26/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc
Saturday CFB Free play. My selection is on the 'under' between Navy and Notre Dame at 2:30 pm et on Saturday.
We saw a wild, high-scoring affair between these two teams in last year's matchup as Notre Dame pulled out a 35-32 victory. I expect nothing of the sort in this rematch in Dublin. Weather conditions are expected to be rather gloomy with the temperature in the 50's and some showers expected. That should have little impact on the game. I simply feel we'll see Navy's defense rise to the occasion against this new-look Notre Dame offense which will be run by QB Sam Hartman. Navy, meanwhile, is installing a new offense of its own - shifting away slightly from the option-based attack we've come to expect from them. There will undoubtedly be some kinks to work out in the early going and this certainly isn't an easy matchup against a potentially elite Notre Dame defense. Note that Navy has seen an average total of just 44.7 points scored when listed as an underdog of between 10.5 and 21 points over the last two seasons (six-game sample size), as is the case here. I'm confident we'll see the Irish control the game, and the clock, and come away with a rather straightforward victory in Week 0 action. Take the under.
On Saturday the college football schedule opens up with a Week 0 matchup between the Navy Midshipmen and the Notre Dame Fighting Irish. ND is a -18.5 pt. favorite, and the O/U is set at 48.5. With new QB Sam Hartman, Notre Dame is heavily favored by 3 TD's for their season opener in Ireland.
Excluding last year's 35-32 final score which saw the Irish up by 35-13 at halftime—they've consistently outplayed Navy in recent matchups. In their recent 11 matchups ND have outscored Navy by almost 19PPG.
Hartman, known for his prolific passing at Wake Forest, significantly enhances the offense. Despite winning by only 3 in 2022, Notre Dame has a 10-1 record against the Midshipmen. Navy has struggled in their last eight Week 1 matches, holding a 1-7 SU and 2-6 ATS record.
Some trends to consider, The total has gone OVER in 6 of Navy's last 8 games, and the total has gone OVER in 5 of Navy's last 7 games played on a Saturday. On the other side the total has gone OVER in all of Notre Dame's last 7 games, and 9 of Notre Dame's last 12 games against Navy.
We're expecting a ton of points in this one, and I see this total coming in over 55. This one flies over.
My first of two FREE NCAAF WINNERS: Notre Dame Fighting Irish.
Saturday, August 26, 2023
Dublin, Ireland
11:30 AM PT
Navy vs. Notre Dame
Fighting Irish -20.5/49
Normally, I don’t like laying a lot of wood this early in the season. And reports of inclement weather would usually benefit a ground attack like Navy possesses. However, with a new star quarterback at the helm, and a reported much improved defense, Notre Dame should make a statement here. If you recall, last year they lost their first two contests of the season, which really put them out of major bowl opportunities. They will come out and take no prisoners, especially against a team that they eked by with only a three-point win last season. Having had several months to prepare for the Midshipmen triple-option will benefit the Fighting Irish “D”. Notre Dame by 24. Tale the Irish. Thank you.
*3 Star Free Play on Over* The UTEP Miners have an excellent offensive line. Jacksonville State is an FBS team for the first time, and I think the Gamecocks defensive front has a tough task in front of them in trying to slow down the UTEP Miners. UTEP's quarterback Hardison is underrated as well. He is a good deep ball passer, and Jacksonville State is a bit weak at the safety spot too. I think UTEP will put up their fair share of points here.
Jacksonville State has a 7th year quarterback in Zion Webb. They are very talented in the backfield, and averaged 5.6 ypc last year. I would expect Rich Rodriguez to scheme up some good spots for Jacksonville State's offense in this one. UTEP is weaker in the secondary and some big plays from Jacksonville State wouldn't be a surprise here.
The weather here calls for very hot temperatures during this game. Temperatures in the 90's during the game is a positive for scoring with hot weather games trending toward the over quite a bit in the last decade.
NY Jets @ NY Giants (6:00 PM EST) Play On: NY Jets -6
The New York Jets take on the New York Giants on Saturday night in NFL preseason action. Robert Saleh is 6-2-1 SU and 6-3 ATS so far in the preseason since he took over as Head Coach of the Jets. NY Giants Head Coach Brian Daboll is 0-5 ATS in all preseason games since he became the Head Coach. The Jets are 2-0 SU and ATS against the Giants in the preseason the past 3 years. The Jets are 10-3 ATS last 13 games when playing at the Giants in the preseason. We'll recommend a small play on the NY Jets tonight! Thanks and good luck, Rocky
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