Tuesday 8/29/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

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Presque Isle Downs - Race #2

#5 Becauseofthebrave	She's getting short on excuses at this point, but she turned in something last out that might be good enough here if she can repeat it. I still think that June 20 race is a pretty key one.
#7 Mulsanne	She's probably supposed to win this on overall form, but she's another with a lot of starts on her page without a win, and her running style leaves her vulnerable to coming along too late again.
#8 Holy Skull	Wouldn't be any surprise to see this one land this while making her local debut, as she's getting into the softest spot of her career and isn't meeting a particularly tough group today.
Race Summary	Becauseofthebrave will have to avoid getting caught up with some other potential pace players, but I think her local form is a bit more compelling overall than it looks at first glance.

Presque Isle Downs - Race #7

#8 Grey Invasion	Riser looks for two in a row after handling $25,000 company last out, and I like that he can settle off the splits a bit, as there are a couple committed forward players who can set the tempo. Right horse at the right time?
#2 Brumba Waffle Toes	Reliable finisher beat the top choice a couple starts back and then ran very well when making the same class hike that one will make today. Obvious player.
#1 Get Even	Nobody is going to fall out of their chair in surprise if this guy wins, but I couldn't be here at too short a price after he got beat at 50 cents on the dollar last out with similar. We're going on five straight starts here with him giving away ground in the stretch call. All that said, he might not take a ton of heat despite the big field.
Race Summary	Grey Invasion might offer a mid-range price while stepping up today, but Brumba Waffle Toes flattered his form a bit last out, and 'Invasion should find a pretty dreamy run.

Presque Isle Downs - Race #8

#8 Chief Crazy Moon	Nothing but fade jobs on the page so far, but that last one was at least a little bit better when he stuck around into midstretch, and the race flow might let him sneak away a bit without taking too much pressure early. Could pop today.
#3 Humble Joe	He couldn't hang late in the debut run behind an easy winner, but that seems like a pretty useful effort and might set him up for something better this time around. Want him on the tickets.
#9 Gruit	He moved forward nicely in that second career start, and he another step in the right direction would probably keep him in the frame again with these. Not impossible.
Race Summary	Chief Crazy Moon has some pace appeal here and should be right up on the splits early, and there is a chance he'll prove quicker than the chasers early on and might stay on better again today.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

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Fort Erie - Race #1

#1 ONE MORE RING (3-1)	Won 5F allowance, can make no mistakes in short but deep field at this level.
#5 ROYAL BIZ (9-2)	Has good first gear, sheds 12 pounds in second start for new barn.
#3 CANT GLIDE BY KATZ (2-1)	Pressed the winning favorite in 4-path, tired in stretch at 6F.
Race Summary	ONE MORE RING earned the top speed figure of his career in allowance company two back, then faded chasing the even-money winner last out. But he won twice at 5F in the spring and runs for the cheapest claiming price of his career. Bet to win and place.

Fort Erie - Race #2

#3 FLAT OUT ANGEL (5-1)	Bucked tracked bias in maiden romp, returns 10 weeks later.
#4 HEADING WEST (2-1)	Pair of seconds in allowance ranks as the favorite, strictly one to beat.
#5 ISA BREEZE (7-2)	In range, lacked stretch kick, finished 2-3/4 lengths behind ‘West’ at distance.
Race Summary	FLAT OUT ANGEL, idle since a runaway maiden victory 2-1/2 months ago, takes a confident jump into allowance company. She tracked the day’s slowest pace when he won, but she rallied 7-wide on a day when 5 of 7 winners went wire-to-wire. Bet to win and place and play a 3-4 exacta box.

Fort Erie - Race #4

#4 AUTUMN’S SO FLASHY (3	Steady check-getter at various sprint distances, makes 15th start.
#7 VIDEO VIDA (7-2)	Blew clear stretch leads in three straight at Woodbine, ideal spot to carry speed.
#6 EIN WAHRER SOLDAT (5-2)	Two slow starts, two 4-wide rallies for second to begin career.
Race Summary	AUTUMN’S SO FLASHY has three seconds and three thirds in his last eight starts, most in MSW company and most from off the pace. He gets in as the co-lightweight in the field and could upgrade to a victory at a distance that produced his top speed figure. Bet to win and place.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Louisiana Downs

PURCHASE

Louisiana Downs - Race 3	Daily Double / Exacta / .50 Trifecta / .10 Superfecta .50 Pick 3 (Races 3-4-5) / .50 Pick 5 (Races 3-4-5-6-7)
Maiden Claiming $12,500 • 5 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Age 2 • CR: 51 • Purse: $12,000 • Post: 5:01P
FOR MAIDENS, TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 119 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $12,500.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Paceless Race. There is no true early speed in this race. * KEY ANGLES * STOVALL: A first time starter with a trainer that has a win percentage with first time starters of at least 25 (minimum 10 starts). Horse is a first time starter and its mare's win percentage with first timers is at least 50. HERCULES N LOVE: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. NOT LIKELY: Today is a sprint and the horse's last start was within the last ten days. Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. WINONESOON: Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
8	STOVALL	6/1	3/1
9	HERCULES N LOVE	20/1	10/1
10	NOT LIKELY	12/1	10/1
1	WINONESOON	15/1	10/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
10	NOT LIKELY	10	12/1	Alternator/Trailer	0	0	51.2	19.9	14.9
9	HERCULES N LOVE	9	20/1	Alternator/Trailer	0	0	44.6	20.9	16.4
1	WINONESOON	1	15/1	Alternator/Trailer	0	0	38.0	26.4	20.9
6	JACK THE WHISTLE	6	15/1	Alternator/Trailer	0	0	17.1	23.7	18.7
4	AUTUMN ROB	4	7/2	Alternator/Trailer	0	0	14.2	25.6	20.1
11	FRUIT CUP	11	5/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	32.2	19.0	12.0
7	YAKETY YAK	7	10/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	25.6	10.4	0.0

Unknown Running Style: COUNTRY GUY (8/1) [Jockey: Lozada Carlos - Trainer: Jeansonne Justin], CLEARING CUSTOMS (10/1) [Jockey: Mcmahon Cj - Trainer: Diodoro Robertino], MINOR DISCREPANCY (9/2) [Jockey: Castillo Alexander - Trainer: Asmussen Steven M]

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[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Assiniboia DownsPURCHASE

Assiniboia Downs - Race 6	$1 CLASSIC HI 5 / LATE DAILY DOUBLE (Races 6-7) / .20 SUPERFECTA .20 TRIACTOR / EXACTOR
Optional Claiming $10,000 • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 82 • Purse: $16,500 • Post: 9:40P
FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON A RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER, OR RESTRICTED OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 117 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE IN 2023 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $10,000.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Dominant Front-runner. KATE'S PRINCESS is the Dominant Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * KATE'S PRINCESS: Today is a sprint, horse is a Front-runner with an inside post position. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. LOAD ABROAD: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. CHICAGO RIVER: Today is a sprint and the horse's last start was within the last ten days. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days.
2	KATE'S PRINCESS	1/1	5/2
7	LOAD ABROAD	25/1	8/1
5	CHICAGO RIVER	10/1	8/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
2	KATE'S PRINCESS	2	1/1	Front-runner	81	84	94.8	81.0	77.5
7	LOAD ABROAD	7	25/1	Front-runner	72	78	92.4	65.6	56.1
5	CHICAGO RIVER	5	10/1	Front-runner	76	74	87.2	65.8	56.3
3	OUR PETUNIA	3	20/1	Stalker	74	71	0.0	71.4	60.9
1	EAGLE EXPRESS	1	5/2	Alternator/Stalker	77	74	70.8	71.2	66.7
6	SOMEONE ELSE	6	8/1	Alternator/Non-contender	76	61	84.4	62.2	51.2
4	MISS M J	4	15/1	Alternator/Non-contender	72	64	67.7	56.6	44.6
8	SWEET DESIGN	8	6/1	Alternator/Non-contender	83	56	41.4	62.6	52.6

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Presque Isle Downs

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 8 - Maiden Special Weight - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $30000 Class Rating: 61

FOR REGISTERED PA-BRED MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 11 REELED IN 5/2
# 10 DONAHUE 3/1
# 1 RECKLESS JONES 15/1

I've got to go with REELED IN. Likely to see a much stronger performance with the drop. Has a strong shot in this competition if you like back class. Reliable average Equibase Speed Figures in dirt sprint races make this pony a key contender. DONAHUE - Could wake up with Lasix change (with second time Lasix) today. Morales has a winning percentage of 25 over the last month. RECKLESS JONES - With a decent 51 speed figure last time out, will clearly be a factor in this affair.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Mountaineer Park - Race #1 - Post: 7:00pm - Claiming - 7.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $11,300 Class Rating: 72

Rating:

#8 QUANTUM THEORY (ML=3/1)
#2 ROLL DEM BONES (ML=6/1)


QUANTUM THEORY - Flopped as the betting favorite in his last start. Ran well considering the speed fig registered was good enough to make him one of the contenders in today's contest. Notched a nice turf fig on July 16th at Mountaineer Park. A repeat right here in this race, and this one has a great shot to win. ROLL DEM BONES - Rode this horse on Aug 15th and Barrios is right back in the irons this race. Flopped as the betting favorite in his last start. Ran well considering the speed figure notched was good enough to make him one of the contenders in today's race. This thoroughbred has increased his speed ratings from a fig of 59 to 72 to 76 in succession. Have to make this gelding a solid contender; he comes off a strong contest on August 15th.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 CHEEKY CHAPS (ML=4/1), #4 HARTEL (ML=9/2), #3 VENEZUELANDREAMERS (ML=8/1),

CHEEKY CHAPS - The fig in the last race doesn't fit very well in this race when I look at the class figure of today's contest. Mark this racer as a possibly overvalued equine. HARTEL - Hard to put your money on the win end of any thoroughbred that finishes second and third as frequently as this one does. Doesn't seem inspiring to me after the lack of any type of closing ability on Aug 20th. This gelding registered a speed fig in his last event which probably isn't good enough in today's event. VENEZUELANDREAMERS - No favorable outcomes for this racer in a sprint event over the last sixty days tells me that this gelding is in a thorny circumstance This gelding earned a speed rating in his last race which probably isn't good enough in today's race.

GUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - QUANTUM THEORY - That bullet move should put this mount on edge versus the rest of the field. Worth a bet today.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Putting our cash on #8 QUANTUM THEORY to win. Have to have odds of at least 3/1 or better though
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [2,8]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Skip
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Thistledown

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 3 - Claiming - 8.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $16000 Class Rating: 68

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE JULY 29 ALLOWED 2 LBS. SUCH A RACE SINCE JUNE 29 ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $12,500

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 6 TIME FOR CUPID 3/1
# 4 LEWD 7/2
# 2 ROWDY DAISY 5/2

I think TIME FOR CUPID is a competitive choice. The winning percentage shown by horses entered by Rivera running at this distance are the best in this group. Will probably come out sharp - I have liked the way this filly has moved rapidly to the lead recently. Ought to be given consideration based on the decent Equibase speed fig garnered in the last contest. LEWD - Has run solidly when running a dirt route race. Overall the Equibase Speed Figs of this horse look respectable in this competition. ROWDY DAISY - Will most likely come out strong - I have liked the way this filly has moved swiftly to the front end recently. Always hard to beat Feliciano and Feliciano working together, winning 26 percent of their races.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Belterra Park - Race #6 - Post: 2:35pm - Maiden Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $9,100 Class Rating: 62

Rating:

#5 PROUD PERFORMER (ML=9/2)


PROUD PERFORMER - Trainer, King, has been deliberate with this filly off the layoff. Look for a solid effort today. Ran last time around the track against a better field at Ellis Park. The move down the class ladder should suit her well. Trying to break maiden moving from a race on the grass to the dirt. I think King will have her in good shape for today's race.

Vulnerable Contenders: #4 KINGMAKING (GB) (ML=5/2), #7 SHORT ON THE SUGAR (ML=7/2), #3 TRANQUIL TIMES (ML=4/1),

KINGMAKING (GB) - You should normally gamble against morning-line choices that haven't raced or show no activity in the morning over the last three weeks. SHORT ON THE SUGAR - This filly hasn't had any in the money efforts in sprint races in the last couple months. TRANQUIL TIMES - The Equibase speed figs continue to fall, 31/27/16. Not a healthy signal. This filly hasn't had any recent good fortune in sprint races. I find it hard to wager on her in this race.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Go with #5 PROUD PERFORMER on top if we're getting at least 1/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Skip
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	None
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by TrackMaster Greg at Running Aces

P#	PP	HORSE NAME	M/L	DRIVER - WIN%	POINTS
RACE 8
2	2	SCHWARTZ BROS PAT	5/2	Warren, Todd - 17	488.97
4	4	REAGAN BLUE CHIP	8/1	Cutting, Jacob - 16	487.29
8	8	ALBERGO HANOVER	12/1	Lackey, James - 14	467.73
6	6	YNOTTHISHOS	10/1	Magee, Rick - 10	457.77
3	3	TREY ROCKETTE	4/1	Smithpeters, Sean - 6	454.75
7	7	MARKTENTWENTYSEVEN	5/1	Jenson, Brady - 16	454.24
1	1	MIKI'S MAGIC RIDE	10/1	Magee, Dean - 13	431.67
9	9	AMERICAN CRUISER	6/1	Plano, Luke - 22	430.83
5	5	BE THE CAPTAIN	8/1	Svendsen, Lemoyne - 13	424.37

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by Compubet Standard at Harrington Raceway

CompuBet Free Pick!

CompuBet 08/29 HARRINGTON
Prog Contestant M/L Points Pre Mud_Q X_>21 Form "I"Class Fav Adj SpdDriver Points
Race#: 3- - PACE 08/29 HARRINGTON
1 Sharkine N 7/5 617.35 100 MUD 81.7 80.0 B/F 1:54.8 Scicluna, Chris 14
8 Harper Seelster 20/1 569.69 80 MUD 85.0 73.4 1:55.9 Morgan, Anthony 26
5 Fifth Fav 7/1 544.18 90 23.3 79.0 1:56.3 Dalious, Barton 21
2 Legal Jeopardy 4/1 539.23 80 11.7 80.1 1:56.3 Wolfenden, Ross 18
4 Giggles N Wiggles 7/2 537.30 80 80.0 77.0 1:56.9 Davis, Allan 24

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by TrackMaster Greg at The Red Mile

P#	PP	HORSE NAME	M/L	DRIVER - WIN%	POINTS
RACE 4
4	4	CHARLESTON	9/5	Tetrick, Tim - 14	631.84
2	2	STRONG POISON	8/5	Gingras, Yannick - 21	612.17
3	3	CULTURED	3/1	Zeron, Scott - 18	608.34
1	1	ZANATTA	3/1	Sears, Brian - 13	590.99

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by Compubet Standard at Du Quoin State Fair

CompuBet Free Pick!

CompuBet 08/29 DUQUOIN STATE FAIR
Prog Contestant M/L Points Pre Mud_Q X_>21 Form "I"Class Fav Adj SpdDriver Points
Race#: 3- - TROT 08/29 DUQUOIN STATE FAIR
8 Hope's Star 9/5 329.33 100 83.3 49.0 2:03.0 Stewart, Cordarius 18
6 Dooleyville Lou 3/1 298.30 70 86.7 48.0 2:04.2 Finn, Harold Jr 13
2 Dashing Durango 20/1 266.23 70 48.3 49.0 2:04.6 Daniels, Jerome 13
5 Shady Maple Ace 5/1 259.81 50 51.7 47.0 2:05.2 Avenatti, Wyatt 18
4 Lou's Miracle 7/1 109.38 40 X 35.0 48.6 2:09.6 Leonard, Casey 10

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Hoosier Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 6 - Post: 8:00 - 1 mile. TROT - Class Rating: 77 - Purse:$10000 - FILLIES AND MARES NON WINNERS OF 2

CONSORTIUM CHOICES
	# 9 FIVE STAR PHOTO 5/2
# 3 SASSY REAGAN 6/1
# 1 GLOBAL PRINCESS 3/1

We've got a feeling FIVE STAR PHOTO is going to get the top prize. This standardbred may have some hidden form, a victory would be a pleasant surprise. This harness racer looks dangerous considering the high class statistics. We wouldn't recommend tossing out of any exotics. Has to be given a look based on the really good TrackMaster Speed Rating achieved in the most recent competition. SASSY REAGAN - Her 80 avg has this filly among the finest speed figures in this event. With a 79 avg class stat, this contender has one of the most favorable class edges in the group of horses. GLOBAL PRINCESS - Could surprise us at a decent price. Don't leave out. Has great speed figs and more than likely has to be thought of for a bet here.

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Scioto Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 10 - Post: 6:42 - 1 mile. TROT - Class Rating: 78 - Purse:$15000 - HORSES AND GELDINGS NON WINNERS OF 2 PMRLT

CONSORTIUM CHOICES
	# 7 SEND RIP 4/1
# 5 TEAM BRAVO 7/2
# 6 GREAT CAREER 2/1

If you want a competitive play for this race, feast your eyes on SEND RIP. With a very good 77 TrackMaster Speed Rating last time out, will very likely be a factor in this competition. TEAM BRAVO - Starters win from this post at Scioto Downs with better than average regularity, suggesting this magnificent bet. Deserves a shot given the successful win percentage he sports. GREAT CAREER - Feel the need for speed, this race horse has been turning in some top notch speed figures averaging around 82. This solid standardbred looks very good considering the high class ratings. Don't toss out of any exotics.