Thursday 8/31/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-31-2023, 06:16 AM

Jeff Siegel's What You Need to Know - Del Mar - 8/31/03

August 31, 2023
“What You Need to Know” – Del Mar
by Jeff Siegel, 1stbet.com Handicapper & Analyst

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, and Workout Commentary identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play

__________________________________________________ ____________________________
RACE 1: Post: 2:00 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 8-Post Facto; 7-Upward Mobility; 5-Single Track Mind
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.

Forecast: The Thursday opener is tough and challenging. Post Facto easily handled a $25,000 field that was restricted to 3-year-olds earlier this month and moves to the $40,000 level (also 3-year-olds only) for new trainer Leonard Powell. The Mineshaft gelding has a prior win on grass so the surface switch shouldn’t be a problem, and in a race that projects to have quick early splits the three-time winner (from just nine career starts) appears well placed to improve his resume once again. Upward Mobility shows up in a seller for the first time and the class drop is logical. A clever winner two runs back sprinting on dirt at Los Alamitos, the Peter Miller-trained gelding is questionable around two turns, but he’s won twice on turf, so we know he’ll handle the lawn. Single Track removes blinkers, stretches out again, and is reunited with “win rider” Umberto Rispoli. He’s a fit on figures and should be competitive from off the pace.

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RACE 2: Post: 2:32 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 2-Southern Slang
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.

Forecast: Southern Slang displayed good early speed before gradually weakening to finish third in his debut at this level three weeks ago and returns in a soft spot for a barn that hits at 21% with the second time starter angle. He’s likely to be the controlling speed and with any type of forward move he should be able to outrun this group. He’s listed at 5/2 on the morning line and we suspect he’ll go lower.

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RACE 3: Post: 3:03 PT Grade: C+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 1-Dark Marcus; 2-Luka Grazie; 9-Silver N Black
Backups/savers/Underneath: none.

Forecast: Dark Marcus is a 13-race maiden and not one to trust, but he lands the good rail in this modest maiden special weight turf miler for California-bred runners and has numbers that simply are better than these. He’s 5/2 on the morning line and no bargain at that price but rates top billing by default. Luka Grazie is about as one-paced as it gets but in a weak field he should be in the fray in the final furlong. He’ll add blinkers today but it should be noted that he has worn them in the past without any apparent positive effect. Silver N Black has hit the board in three of his last four starts but is sluggish on speed figures. In a soft race, he’s probably worth including somewhere.

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RACE 4: Post: 3:34 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 5-Liberal Lady; 8-Trouville
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.

Forecast: Liberal Lady earned a career top speed figure when third over this track and distance at this level earlier this month and with another forward move today the daughter of Mor Spirit should be able to regain her winning form. The projected soft pace scenario compliments her front running style, so there should be no excuses. Trouville has won three races from 36 starts, with 21 seconds and thirds. She’s likely to pick up another minor award at least, but her lack of winning punch makes her hard to embrace with confidence.

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RACE 5: Post: 4:05 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 6-Unconquerable Keen; 1-Ambivalent
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 4-Standing O; 7-Zofarelli.

Forecast: Unconquerable Keen finished full of run but ran out of room when an excellent runner-up over this course and distance last month and not much more will be needed for this Irish-bred to regain his winning form in this competitive second level allowance turf dash. The Phil D’Amato trained import can be tough on the front end but may be most effective when held up early and allowed to blast home. Joe Bravo stays aboard and got good run out of him last time out. Ambivalent has been sparingly raced in his career but there’s plenty of natural talent, as he displayed in his comeback win vs. softer over the local lawn earlier this meeting. He should enjoy a stalking, ground-saving trip from the rail and will be a factor if he can raise his speed figure a few points.

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RACE 6: Post: 4:35 PT Grade: X
Main ticket (in order of preference): 1-Conquistar
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.

Forecast: Conquistar makes her first start since late April and has burned money as the favorite in all three of her previous starts, so she’s not one to trust, but against this modest band of maiden special weight fillies and mares the Bob Baffert-trained filly surely will be a short price again. The daughter of Quality Road has the kind of tactical speed to place herself in the fray throughout, but her problem is that she hasn’t been able to punch it in under pressure. Listed at 8/5 on the morning line and liable to go lower, she’s a complete standout on numbers but is highly unlikely to offer any real wagering value in a race that might be best left alone.

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RACE 7: Post: 5:05 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 4-Just Nails
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 8-Organic.

Forecast: Just Nails returned a winner following a 13 month layoff when breaking her maiden in extra game fashion over this course and distance on opening weekend. She returns with sufficient rest in between races to expect a forward move, and if the Marty Jones-trained daughter of Twirling Candy steps forward as expected that she can score again in this first level allowance dash. At 5/2 on the morning line, let’s make her a win play and main push in the various rolling exotics.

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RACE 8: Post: 5:35 PT Grade: C
Main ticket (in order of preference): 10-Vulin; 8-Mimsy
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 9-Princess Tenko; 3-Tapit Rocks; 5-Midnight Silence.

Forecast: The nightcap is a messy maiden claiming miler for bottom-rung fillies and mares. Anything goes, so best advice is to spread as deep as your budget allows. Vulin is drawn on the far outside but she just finished a decent second over this track and distance at this level earlier this month, so if she can turn in two alike and avoid a wide trip from the 10-hole the daughter of Kitten’s Joy may be able to finally graduate in career start number 10. Mimsy stretches out after a modest fourth sprinting in her debut that earned a competitive speed figure with this group. We’d prefer to see another sprint under her belt, but in a weak field she may improve enough to be a strong threat.

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**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-31-2023, 06:16 AM

Jeff Siegel's What You Need to Know - Saratoga - 8/31/23

August 31, 2023
“What You Need to Know” - Saratoga
by Jeff Siegel, 1stbet.com Handicapper & Analyst

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, and Workout Commentary identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
*
Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play

__________________________________________________ ____________________________
RACE 1: Post: 1:10 ET Grade: B+
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 1-Positive Carry
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 4-Deep Conviction.

Forecast: Positive Carry, a smallish but athletic daughter of Sea the Moon, makes her debut in this middle distance inner turf event for maiden juvenile fillies and appears to have the kind of talent that can win a race like this at first asking. The Irish-bred filly, purchased as a yearling overseas for in excess of $200,000, should be quite fit based on her work tab for a barn that hits at a strong 22% with debut runners, and with Flavian Prat taking the call this well-regarded Irish-bred looks like a live item at 7/2 on the morning line. Let’s make her a win play and main push in the various rolling exotics.

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RACE 2: Post: 1:44 ET Grade: B
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 1-Life Talk; 2-Rising Inflation
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.

Forecast: We’ll double the second race, a main track miler for juvenile fillies. Life Talk has the benefit of a prior run, having finished a close second (beaten a head) in a maiden special weight sprint last month. The number was just okay, but we suspect the daughter of Gun Runner will step forward considerably with that race under her belt. Rising Inflation is a first timer with a decent series of workouts at Churchill Downs to have her fit and ready. She’s bred to be quick (Mtole), but we’ve haven’t seen her on video, so we’re largely guessing. Considering her connections, we’re compelled toss her in.

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RACE 3: Post: 2:20 ET Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): Road to Remember; 6-Mz Big Bucks; 7-Road to Remember
Backups/savers/Underneath: none.

Forecast: Road to Remember has a prior win over the local lawn and should fire a big shot fresh after being on vacation since mid-June. Now in the Raymond Handal barn, the daughter of Bellamy Road shows a steady recent work tab to have her plenty fit and back numbers that are good enough to win this second level, state-bred grass dash for fillies and mares. Mz Big Bucks is back sprinting where he probably belongs, and her New York stallion stakes win two races back at Belmont Park makes her a major player. She is quick enough to be on or near the lead throughout. Loom Cry is guaranteed a ground saving trip from her rail draw and is clearly most comfortable sprinting on grass. She’ll be the one they’ll all have to worry about the most from the furlong pole to the wire.

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RACE 4: Post: 2:52 ET Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 1-Pillbox/1a-Corner Kick; 6-Proud Foot.
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.

Forecast: Pillbox arrives from Gulfstream Park for her first outing since March and has won fresh in the past, so we’re expecting this Saffie Joseph, Jr.-trained filly to be tough to deal with in this seven furlong main track affair for starter allowance ($50,000) fillies and mares. The local works are sharp, so it’s entirely possible that this daughter of We Miss Artie will return a better version of herself. Corner Kick, a first-off-the-claim play for Robertino Diodoro, crushed a maiden $40,000 field here last month and provides the entry with strong support. Proud Foot apparently lacks a winning punch (two wins from 21 starts with nine seconds and thirds) but she remains protected by Linda Rice and was more than five lengths clear of the rest when second as the favorite two weeks ago. She figures in the fray once again.

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RACE 5: Post: 3:26 ET Grade: C+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 14-Screaming Uncle; 13-With Purpose; 1-Bargaining Power
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.

Forecast: Screaming Uncle vans up from Monmouth Park and plummets from straight maiden company to the bottom-rung maiden $20,000 level in a move that clearly indicates he’s being culled from the stable. His runner-up effort two races back makes him a standout at this level, assuming he’s reasonably healthy. With Purpose, a fair third in his debut in a maiden $40,000 affair last February at Gulfstream Park, returns cheap for Brendan Walsh, hardly a sign of confidence for the former $140,000 yearling buy. However, with Irad Ortiz, Jr., taking the call, he should be a live item against this group. Bargaining Power earned a decent enough speed figure last time out when a distant third facing $40,000 foes to make him competitive with this group. With a good trip from the rail under Flavian Prat, the Chad Brown-trained son of Frosted should be a factor at 6-1 on the morning line.

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RACE 6: Post: 4:00 ET Grade: C+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 8-Charging; 7-Billy’s Got Issues; 10-Ski Patrol
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 9-Speinofthedevil.

Forecast: Charging shows up in a seller for the first time after a pair of disappointing efforts facing stakes and allowance foes in his last pair. Three races back, the son of Candy Ride easily disposed of straight maiden foes at Keeneland and if he can run back to that race today the Brad Cox-trained colt can regain his winning form. Billy’s Got Issues, aptly named and a voided claim for this price last time out, turns back from a router and should be a late threat if he’s feeling up to it. Based on his maiden $40,000 win two races back at Belmont Park, he’s a fit with these. Ski Patrol is one of those Linda Rice droppers following a claim ($50,000 to $350,000). Some of them win, some of them don’t. He’s never sprinted, so it will be interesting to see if he can stay within contact during the first half mile.

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RACE 7: Post: 4:34 ET Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 2-Spirit Prince; 8-Carson’s Run
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 1-Gala Brand.

Forecast: Spirit Prince missed in his debut when running a winning race over this course and distance facing maidens last month and returns in this year’s edition of the With Anticipation in a clear sign of confidence by his connections. The son of Cairo Prince adds blinkers and picks up Flavian Prat, so we’re expecting a big step forward in this fairly wide open event for juveniles. His Christophe Clement-trained stable mate, Carson’s Run, is the one to fear most. A maiden debut winner here last month on the same day (but in different race) that our top pick raced, the son of Cupid figures to settle in the second flight and then produce his late kick.

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RACE 8: Post: 5:10 ET Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 3-Cicciobello; 2-Bank Frenzy
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 4-Pineapple Man; 5-G Munning.

Forecast: Cicciobello was below form when unplaced in open company over this track and distance earlier this month but faces state bred foes today and can return to winning form. A repeat of his race before last, a big figure runner-up effort at this level while six lengths clear of a next out winner, is more than good enough to handle this task. Additionally, he’s reunited with “win rider” Javier Castellano. Bank Frenzy is lightly raced, improving, and the one to fear most. He missed by a neck at 21-1 in a New York Stallion Series event sprinting at Aqueduct in April and if he returns as well as he left the Lisa Lewis-trained Central Banker colt will be right in the thick of things. The presence of Irad Ortiz, Jr. in the saddle is an additional plus.

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RACE 9: Post: 5:44 ET Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 1-Inevtabl Connection; 5-Ice Road
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 4-Kunshan Bridge; 7-Giroovin.

Forecast: Inevtabl Connection, a solid runner-up in a similar recent starter’s allowance race, lands the rail and projects to be the best of the speed types. The fractions should be moderate at best, so if the son of Connect can break cleanly and establish the running he could take some catching. Ice Road, second in his last three starts, may lack a winning punch though if he repeats his career top speed figure earned when second in a similar affair last time out the son of Keen Ice could be hard to contain late.

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RACE 10: Post: 6:18 ET Grade:
Main ticket (in order of preference): 10-Lady Hamilton; 5-Miss Bonnie T.
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 8-Miss M M.

Forecast: Lady Hamilton is stuck in the 10-hole but drops into a $35,000 claimer for the first time and at this level should be able to find a way to win. The Saffie Joseph, Jr.-trained filly has form at Gulfstream Park that is good enough to handle this level of competition on this circuit and picks up Irad Ortiz, Jr. Let’s hope she can get over and secure a nice stalking position before the field hits the first turn. Miss Bonnie T is another class dropper that should be a major player in this league. She has numbers that fit and good form over the local turf course but hasn’t been out since December. It’s hard to gauge what kind of shape she’s in.

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**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-31-2023, 06:17 AM

Race of the Week: $2M Mint Millions at Kentucky Downs | Saturday

August 30, 2023 | By Jeremy Plonk
$2,000,000 GRADE 3 MINT MILLIONS AT KENTUCKY DOWNS
Saturday, September 2, 2023
By Jeremy Plonk

The Lead:
Day two of seven at Kentucky Downs' lucrative boutique meet features this $2 million potential stop on the road to the Breeders' Cup Mile. The Mint Millions has been contested under six different names since the race was launched in 1992. Saturday's renewal goes as Race 10 on an 11-race card that also boasts the $1 million Gun Runner and $1 million Music City Stakes, all run in succession.

Field Depth:
Grade 1 winners ATONE, ANNAPOLIS and GET HER NUMBER hold upper-echelon victories, while Grade 2 winners include CABO SPIRIT and STITCHED. The French Group 3 winner ANCIENT HOME is Group 1-placed overseas. This is a high-class cast not likely to be topped on a step up in company.

Pace:
There's no devout front-runner in this lineup, so the pace could be made by a combination of ATONE, STITCHED and/or CHURCHTOWN. Don't expect favorite ANNAPOLIS to be far from the front. A deep closer would appear compromised by this race flow.

Our Eyes:
Here are my horse-by-horse notes.

1-CABO SPIRIT: Cross-entered in Thursday's Tapit Stakes (8-1 ML in that spot vs. 15-1 here), this California-based runner makes a curious equipment change to blinkers off in his 22nd career start. Del Mar shippers have just a 7% win rate in Kentucky Downs stakes, according to Betmix. Notably 0-5 since taking on elders in stakes company.

2-ATONE: Pegasus World Cup Turf winner hasn't been able to replicate that January effort in his last 3 starts, but a return to this race where he was runner-up a year ago could be the right fit. Trainer Mike Maker's runners ran 1st, 2nd and 4th in this race a year ago, winning it with Somelikeithotbrown while teamed with jockey Jose Ortiz, the return combo here.

3-STITCHED: Kentucky Downs' top stakes rider in recent years has been Florent Geroux both in volume (19 wins) and strike rate (22%). Even fifth last year in a stakes sprint and better-suited to the mile trip on Saturday. His 46-1 upset of the Grade 2 Wise Dan at Ellis Park sets him up for another decent price chance.

4-HOZIER: Won the cross-state prep for this race at Ellis Park, but will take on a decidedly tougher bunch Saturday. Highly underrated jockey-trainer combo of Acard-Brisset hit at 30% and this one paired up victories last year when rounding into form.

5-SMOKIN' T: Won the restricted Lure Stakes at Saratoga last out and it's notable that trainer Shug McGaughey is a wicked 7-14 with Spa shippers to Kentucky Downs in recent years, though his last stakes win here came in 2018. Consistent colt has fared best with John Velazquez in the saddle, and he's back Saturday.

6-ANCIENT ROME: Top-class British trainer Charlie Hills took over this one from French legend Andre Fabre and immediately found success at Goodwood at a 33-1 upset number. War Front colt should be backed stronger on the venture to the US and has quality from a mile to 10 furlongs, so he should handle this trip and demanding course very well.

7-GRAY'S FABLE: Fifth in this race at 18-1 last year, he was beaten favorite when chasing Hozier in Ellis Park's prep for this race. Deep closer will not get a favorable pace set-up as it appears on paper.

8-CHURCHTOWN: Woodbine-based 4-year-old makes his first foray to Kentucky Downs and lures the leading local pilot over the years, Julien Leparoux, who is looking to bounce back from a poor showing at Saratoga. This one's mile efforts are among his best on paper and expect him to be in the hunt throughout in terms of early pace.

9-GET HER NUMBER: Dirt performer has had some limited grass success, but meets a strong group here while stretching out in distance and changing surfaces. The lack of success from Del Mar shippers in KD stakes over the years doesn't inspire confidence, but jockey Gerardo Corrales does a super job here.

10-ANNAPOLIS: Strong 8-5 morning line favorite has been racing against top-class foes and has found his grove as a pure miler. His 10-for-11 lifetime mark in the exacta screams consistency and there's no reason to think he won't hold his form. The only question would be first time over the unique KD course. Obvious player, but short on value.

11-DHABAB: British export makes his second US start for Ed Vaughan after a flat fifth at Ellis Park in allowance company. Group 2-placed in 2021, he's got to find his old form to step up against these.

12-MAX K.O.: Joins Atone in a bid for trainer Mike Maker to win this race in back-to-back years and this is the only horse in the field to have won at Kentucky Downs. In fact, he's 2-for-2 here and the rest of the field is 0-for-4. Local wins were allowance and starter allowance level, and he hasn't sustained his late kick in his last couple of starts. Tough task.

Most Certain Exotics Contender:
ANNAPOLIS has finished out of the exacta just once in 11 starts, that in the Breeders' Cup Mile last year. New venue or not, he's trustworthy given the relatively soft pace here.

Best Longshot Exotics Contender:
STITCHED will be in the pace mix and has a penchant for playing at a price, winning at 46-1, 15-1 and 11-1 odds.

Sending it in ($100 bankroll):
Let's try to get STITCHED in the mix with ANNAPOLIS and ATONE. $20 win STITCHED. $40 exacta ANNAPOLIS over STITCHED. $20 exacta ATONE over STITCHED. $15 exacta STITCHED over ANNAPOLIS. $5 exacta STITCHTED over ATONE.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-31-2023, 06:17 AM

Jon White: Pacific Classic Selections

August 30, 2023 | By Jon White
What a difference a year makes.

The Grade I, $1 million Pacific Classic at Del Mar this Saturday (Sept. 2) has lured a field of 11 with no real standout. Last year’s renewal drew a shorter field of just five with a definite standout.

I have installed Geaux Rocket Ride as the morning-line favorite in this year’s Pacific Classic.

From the rail out, the field consists of Geaux Rocket Ride (5-2 on the morning line), Katonah (20-1), Stilleto Boy (8-1), Tripoli (20-1), Defunded (4-1), Order and Law (30-1), Slow Down Andy (8-1), Senor Buscador (10-1), Arabian Knight (3-1), Piroli (20-1) and Skinner (10-1).

Last year, I pegged the undefeated and untested Flightline as a 1-5 favorite on the Pacific Classic morning-line.

Mac MacBride, Del Mar’s director of media, noted that in the history of the Pacific Classic, which was first run in 1991, the only other horse to be such a short-priced morning-line favorite in this race was Cigar in 1996.

Trainer Richard Mandella sent out Dare and Go to win the 1996 Pacific Classic in a 39-1 shocker. The great Cigar, bet down to 1-10 favoritism, had to settle for second. This time Mandella has the Pacific Classic favorite on the morning line in Geaux Rocket Ride instead of a longshot like Dare and Go.

Mandella has three Pacific Classic wins to his credit other than Dare and Go. The Hall of Fame horseman also won this race with Gentlemen in 1997, Pleasantly Perfect in 2004 and the marvelous mare Beholder in 2015.

When I made Flightline’s price 1-5 on the Pacific Classic morning line last year, it drew some criticism. Gee, imagine that, someone knocking a morning line.

What happened? When Flightline broke from the starting gate in the Pacific Classic, his price on the board was 1-5. He then made his low price look like a tremendous overlay by coming up with one of the most impressive performances on the American racing stage in this century so far.

“To call last Saturday’s Grade I, $1 million Pacific Classic a race just doesn’t seem right. Was it really a race? No. It was a wipeout,” I wrote in my recap for Xpressbet.com. “…What Flightline did last Saturday at Del Mar turned out about the same as if LeBron James played a high school kid in a one-on-one basketball game.

“When you get right down to it, the 2022 Pacific Classic at Del Mar just wasn’t fair,” I added. “Flightline really should have been asked to give the others a head start, or at least be ridden by a sumo wrestler instead of Flavien Prat.”

Flightline won by 19 1/4 lengths.

Country Grammer finished second. Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert quipped afterward that Flightline was so far in front at the finish that Country Grammer thought he won the race.

Another Hall of Fame trainer, Bill Mott, who trained two-time Horse of the Year Cigar, said that Flightline “looked spectacular” in a BloodHorse article written by Tim Wilkin. “To me, it was a Secretariat-type performance that we saw. There’s not much more to say about it.”

It was not hyperbole for Mott to say Flightline’s Pacific Classic was a “Secretariat-type performance.” Flightline’s final time was faster than Secretariat’s when he won the 1973 Kentucky Derby.

When Secretariat won the Run for the Roses, he completed 1 1/4 miles in 1:59 2/5 to break Northern Dancer’s track record of 2:00 set in 1964.

Flightline won the Pacific Classic in 1:59 1/5 (1:59.28 in hundredths).

“If Prat had simply flicked his wrists approaching the finish, or maybe even just sneezed, Flightline would have broken the 19-year-old track record of 1:59.11 set by another undefeated runner, Candy Ride, in 2003,” I wrote.

Flightline’s margin of victory demolished the Pacific Classic record of 12 1/2 lengths set by Accelerate in the 2018 Pacific Classic. Accelerate would go on to win the Grade I Breeders’ Cup Classic that year and was voted a 2018 Eclipse Award as champion older male. Flightline likewise went on to win the Grade I BC Classic and was voted 2022 Horse of the Year.

John Sadler trained both Accelerate and Flightline. Sadler, remarkably, has won four of the last five Pacific Classics, as listed below:

2022 Flightline
2021 Tripoli
2019 Higher Power
2018 Accelerate

Tripoli is back for this year’s Pacific Classic. He’s seeking to become a two-time winner of this race. Tripoli was 6-1 when he won it in 2021. He is expected to be a much bigger price this time. I made him 20-1 on the morning line. But by making him 20-1, I actually cut his price virtually in half from his most recent start in Del Mar’s Grade II San Diego Handicap at 1 1/16 miles on July 29. He finished fifth at 38-1 that day.

Since Tripoli won the 2021 Pacific Classic, he’s won just once in 12 starts. That victory came in an allowance contest this year on March 19 at Golden Gate Fields.

I found this to be a very difficult Pacific Classic to try and predict what the final odds are going to be. Mainly due to the size of the field, I made a number of horses a higher price on the morning line than I would have liked.

I’m expecting many people are going to disagree with some of these Pacific Classic prices. And, look, it’s perfectly okay for people to disagree with someone’s morning line. Anyone who makes morning lines knows that comes with the territory. Unfortunately, there are those who can’t seem to help themselves from expressing their disagreement in a scornful, low-class manner.

For example, in the Pacific Classic, I really wanted to make Defunded a shorter price than 4-1. He was 1-5 when he won Santa Anita’s Grade II Californian Stakes and 3-5 when victorious in the Hollywood Gold Cup at the Great Race Place. He was 4-5 when he ran fourth in the San Diego. After being odds-on in three consecutive starts, is his price now going to rise to 4-1? The problem is, if I had lowered him to 3-1 in the Pacific Classic, I then would have had to raise the prices on a number of horses whose odds already are pretty high, such as Stilleto Boy, Senor Buscador and Skinner.

The principal reason for making Defunded 4-1 is I see this as being a much stronger, deeper field than those he defeated in the Californian and Gold Cup.

In the Californian, the runner-up was Royal Ship, who is not nearly as good this year at age 7 as he once was. He finished sixth in the San Diego.

In the Gold Cup, Piroli ran second at odds of 28-1. Kiss Today Goodbye finished third at 37-1. In Piroli’s next start, he could finish no better than fourth as the 9-5 favorite in an allowance/optional claiming contest, though he did stumble at the start and had a wide trip. In Kiss Today Goodbye’s next start, he lost Del Mar’s Grade III Cougar II Stakes by nearly 55 lengths as the 2-1 favorite.

Those recent efforts by Royal Ship, Piroli and Kiss Today Goodbye certainly do not flatter Defunded.

With 11 horses in the Pacific Classic, I just could not go lower than 4-1 on Defunded.

I wanted to make Stilleto Boy 6-1. But again, primarily because of the size of the field, I ended up putting him at 8-1. I reluctantly raised him to 8-1 partly because he’s never been one to get a ton of respect from the bettors.

I made Stilleto Boy 5-1 on the morning line for the Grade I Santa Anita Handicap. He went off at 13-1. (That was fine with me. I bet him at that price and he won.)

Even off Stilleto Boy’s Big ’Cap victory, he didn’t receive strong support in his next race, going off at almost 6-1 when he finished a close third in the Grade II Oaklawn Handicap.

In Stilleto Boy’s most recent start, he was 7-1 in the Grade I Stephen Foster Handicap on July 1. He finished sixth.

When push came to shove in crafting the Pacific Classic morning line, I went with 8-1 on Stilleto Boy instead of the 6-1 that I would have been able to do if there were fewer than 11 horses in the race.

I also would have liked to have made Senor Buscador’s price on the morning line a notch lower at 8-1 than 10-1. Nick Hines on FanDuel TV said the 10-1 morning line on Senor Buscador “is a slap in his face.”

Well, I’m certainly not intending to slap Senor Buscador in the face, figuratively speaking. I am only trying as best I can to forecast what his odds are going to be Saturday. Keep in mind Senor Buscador’s morning line price of 10-1 is LOWER than the 13-1 he was when he won Del Mar’s Grade II San Diego.

As I said, I would have liked to have made Senor Buscador 8-1. Will he end up being lower than 10-1? It wouldn’t surprise me. But I do not expect 10-1 to be way off the mark.

Some may say, “When Senor Buscador won the San Diego, he ran right by Slow Down Andy in the stretch. So why is Senor Buscador 10-1 and Slow Down Andy a shorter price at 8-1?”

Good question. There are two chief reasons for that.

First, in the San Diego, Slow Down Andy at 7-2 was a considerably shorter price than Senor Buscador at 13-1. That’s a big reason why Slow Down Andy is a slightly lower price than Senor Buscador on the Pacific Classic morning line.

Second, Senor Buscador’s record in races farther than 1 1/16 miles has left something to be desired.

When Senor Buscador has gone farther than 1 1/16 miles, he has finished fifth in Fair Grounds’ Grade II Risen Star Stakes, fourth in the Grade II Oaklawn Handicap and fifth in the Hollywood Gold Cup.

I think Senor Buscador has an excellent trainer in Todd Fincher. Based on a comment he made to Daily Racing Form’s Steve Andersen, it does appear that Fincher would prefer the Pacific Classic pace to be faster than what he seems to think it will be.

“I think there will be a decent pace,” Fincher said. “I don’t think it will be a crazy pace. I wish it was.”

I also would have liked to have made Skinner 8-1 instead of 10-1. I know there are a lot of people who feel that this is a very talented Curlin colt in the hands of a master trainer in John Shirreffs. I’m one of them.

But just how much money is Skinner going to take in the wagering Saturday? He has yet to win a stakes race. Heck, he’s still eligible to run in a race restricted to non-winners of two races lifetime.

In his most recent start, Skinner wasn’t even the favorite in the ungraded Los Alamitos Derby, which had a field of five 3-year-olds. Is he really going to get all that much play this time in a Grade I race against older horses and highly regarded 3-year-olds Geaux Rocket Ride and Arabian Knight?

Granted, I would have been able to make Stilleto Boy, Senor Buscador and/or Skinner lower prices simply by raising the odds for Geaux Rocket Ride to 3-1 or 7-2 instead of 5-2. But I just don’t see Geaux Rocket Ride being higher than 5-2. I actually think there is a chance that he will go off lower than 5-2. In a way, I hope that happens. Because if Geaux Rocket Ride goes off at lower than 5-2, it will ensure that the prices I did make on Stilleto Boy, Senor Buscador and/or Skinner likely won’t be considerably higher than their closing odds.

Additionally, because co-favorites on a morning line are a no-no, if I had made Geaux Rocket Ride 3-1 or 7-2, that would have meant having to also raise Arabian Knight to 7-2 or 4-1. I would not feel comfortable making Arabian Knight, a highly regarded Bob Baffert-trained pricey auction purchase, higher than 3-1 in this situation.

Expectations at the barn of Hall of Famer Baffert have been sky high on Arabian Knight, a $2.3 million auction purchase, all along. Yes, he got beat in the Haskell. But don’t forget he was making his first start since Jan. 28. Also don’t forget that Arabian Knight was sent off as the Haskell favorite at slightly more than even money, while Geaux Rocket Ride’s odds were 12-1.

Based on the disparity in the prices between Arabian Knight and Geaux Rocket Ride in the Haskell, plus the way Arabian Knight was bet in his first two races as if he were the second coming of Secretariat, I think there even is a possibility that Arabian Knight will go off as the favorite in the Pacific Classic. That’s why I was not about to make him any higher than 3-1.

In the Haskell, Arabian Knight got into an early pace tussle with 61-1 longshot Awesome Strong, who wound up last in the field of eight.

After losing the 1 1/8-mile Haskell by 3 3/4 lengths, Arabian Knight now must go a furlong further in the Pacific Classic. But I think the pace scenario might be much more to Arabian Knight’s liking this time. I won’t be surprised if he’s able to show the way early without having to go crazy fast. If that does happen, he could get mighty difficult to run down in the stretch.

As for how I envision the Pacific Classic unfolding for Geaux Rocket Ride,
I expect him to save ground while stalking early after beginning from the inside post. It then will be up to his rider, “Big Money” Mike Smith, to find a way to put Geaux Rocket Ride in a prime position to win the race at the top of the lane. From there, it will be up to Kentucky-bred colt to show that he’s up to the task. If he is, it will be Geaux Rocket Ride’s fourth victory in five career starts and his third straight stakes win after taking Santa Anita’s Affirmed Stakes on June 4 and Monmouth Park’s Grade I Haskell Stakes on July 22.

Arcangelo won the Grade I Travers Stakes last week at Saratoga, following in the footsteps of his sire, Arrogate, who broke the track record when he won that race in 2016.

Will it be a similar story this week with Geaux Rocket Ride? Is he going to win the Grade I Pacific Classic, following in the footsteps of his sire, Candy Ride, who broke the track record when he won this race in 2003? I think so.

Below are my Travers Stakes selections:

1. Geaux Rocket Ride
2. Arabian Knight
3. Defunded
4. Stilleto Boy

ARCANGELO MAKES HISTORY

When Arcangelo won the Grade I Travers Stakes at Saratoga last Saturday (Aug. 26), he made racing history.

The Travers dates back to the Civil War. Last Saturday was only the fourth time in that three different winners of a Triple Crown race had ever clashed in the Travers. It happened previously in 1918, 1982 and 2017.

How did Arcangelo make history? Last Saturday, for the first time when three different winners of a Triple Crown race have competed in the Travers, this 1 1/4-mile event was won by one of those three Triple Crown race victors.

In 1918, Sun Briar captured the Travers while defeating Kentucky Derby winner Exterminator, Preakness Stakes winner War Cloud and Belmont Stakes winner Johren.

In 1982, Runaway Groom got the job done in the Travers while outrunning Kentucky Derby winner Gato Del Sol, Preakness winner Aloma’s Ruler and Belmont winner Conquistador Cielo.

In 2017, West Coast took the Travers while beating Kentucky Derby winner Always Dreaming, Preakness winner Cloud Computing and Belmont winner Taprit.

When Arcangelo won the Grade I Belmont Stakes on June 10, his trainer, Jena Antonucci, made history. It marked the first time that a female trainer had won any of the Triple Crown races in the more than 100 years that the three events for 3-year-olds have existed.

It took until the 452nd Triple Crown race, as the Los Angeles Times’ John Cherwa pointed out, for Antonucci to break through with a victory in the Kentucky Derby, Preakness Stakes or Belmont Stakes.

Using various media guides as sources, I compiled a list of all the female trainers to have sent out a horse to finish first, second or third in a Triple Crown race:

Finish Trainer (Horse, Year Triple Crown Race)

1st Jena Antonucci (Arcangelo, 2023 Belmont)
2nd Dianne Carpenter (Kingpost, 1988 Belmont)
2nd Shelley Riley (Casual Lies, 1992 Kentucky Derby)
2nd Nancy Alberts (Magic Weisner, 2002 Preakness)
3rd Shelley Riley (Casual Lies, 1992 Preakness)
3rd Kristin Mulhall (Imperialism, 2004 Kentucky Derby)
3rd Kathy Ritvo (Mucho Macho Man, 2011 Kentucky Derby)
3rd Linda Rice (Max Player, 2020 Belmont)

Earlier this year, Hall of Fame jockey Javier Castellano won his first Kentucky Derby on Mage. Castellano subsequently won his first Belmont aboard Arcangelo.

Castellano rode Arcangelo in the Travers. Flavien Prat piloted Mage.

This was far from Castellano’s first Travers victory. He now has won the Midsummer Derby a record seven times, as listed below:

2023 Arcangelo ($7.40)
2018 Catholic Boy ($16.20)
2015 Keen Ice ($34.00)
2014 V.E. Day ($41.00)
2011 Stay Thirsty ($6.80)
2010 Afleet Express ($16.00)
2006 Bernardini ($2.70)

Castellano’s ride on Arcangelo in the Travers was terrific. After being caught in a minor scrum in the run to the first turn, Castellano was able get Arcangelo into a close-up position in fourth on the backstretch while saving ground inside. Castellano then swung Arcangelo “four to five wide into upper stretch and rallied to take command three-sixteenths from home,” as noted in the Equibase chart comments.

Arcangelo’s stretch run in the Travers was pretty similar to his stretch run in the Belmont.

In the Belmont, Arcangelo opened a 3 1/2-length lead a furlong out and went on to win by 1 1/2 lengths. In the Travers, he had a three-length advantage with a furlong to go and went on to prevail by one length in 2:02.23.

Disarm finished second in the Travers at 12-1 after determinedly coming through claustrophobic quarters in upper stretch to seriously threaten at the sixteenth pole, but he could not run down Arcangelo in the last sixteenth. Still, it was a fine try by Disarm, who finished fourth in the Grade I Kentucky Derby, won the Grade III Matt Winn Stakes and finished fourth in the Grade II Jim Dandy Stakes prior to the Travers.

Tapit Trice, racing with blinkers for the first time, finished third in the Travers at 13-1. He was followed across the finish line by 8-5 favorite Forte, National Treasure at 6-1, Scotland at 7-1 and Mage at 9-2.

UPWARD BEYER TRAJECTORY CONTINUES

“I think all it might take to win this year’s Travers will be something similar to the 105 Beyer when Code of Honor won this race in 2019 or the 104 Beyer when Catholic Boy was victorious in 2018,” I wrote for Xpressbet.com last week.

Arcangelo was credited with a 105 Beyer for his Travers triumph as his figures continue to climb. He posted a 53 at first asking last Dec. 17 at Gulfstream Park, followed by a 70, 84, 97, 102 and last Saturday’s 105.

You rarely see a horse with an improving Beyer Speed Figure pattern in that many races.

Below are Beyer Speed Figures for Travers winners going back to 1990 (the first year they were listed in the American Racing Manual):

2023 Arcangelo (105)
2022 Epicenter (112)
2021 Essential Quality (107)
2020 Tiz the Law (109)
2019 Code of Honor (105)
2018 Catholic Boy (104)
2017 West Coast (108)
2016 Arrogate (122)
2015 Keen Ice (106)
2014 V.E. Day (102)
2013 Will Take Charge (107)
2012 Alpha (100)*
2012 Golden Ticket (100)*
2011 Stay Thirsty (101)
2010 Afleet Express (105)
2009 Summer Bird (110)
2008 Colonel John (106)
2007 Street Sense (108)
2006 Bernardini (116)
2005 Flower Alley (110)
2004 Birdstone (108)
2003 Ten Most Wanted (112)
2002 Medaglia d’Oro (113)
2001 Point Given (117)
2000 Unshaded (109)
1999 Lemon Drop Kid (110)
1998 Coronado’s Quest (107)
1997 Deputy Commander (110)
1996 Will’s Way (114)
1995 Thunder Gulch (110)
1994 Holy Bull (115)
1993 Sea Hero (109)
1992 Thunder Rumble (109)
1991 Corporate Report (109)
1990 Rhythm (104)

*Dead heat

LONGINES BREEDERS’ CUP CLASSIC RANKINGS

Following Arcangelo’s Travers victory, he has ascended to the top spot in this week’s Longines Breeders’ Cup Classic Rankings. He was No. 5 last week.

Forte had been No. 1 in the poll for the past three weeks. He drops to fourth this week after finishing fourth in the Travers.

The Breeders’ Cup will be held this year at Santa Anita on Nov. 3-4. The $6 million Classic will be on Nov. 4.

The Longines Breeders’ Cup Classic Rankings are determined by a panel of voters comprised of members of the Breeders’ Cup Racing/Secretaries Panel, international racing and sports media, plus racing analysts.

The rankings will be updated weekly through Oct. 10.

The Top 10 in this week’s rankings are below:

Rank Points Horse (First-Place Votes)

1. 318 Arcangelo (17)
2. 260 White Abarrio (8)
3. 231 Geaux Rocket Ride (2)
4. 273 Forte (1)
5. 230 Rattle N Roll (2)
6. 111 Defunded (2)
7. 108 Disarm
8. 91 Zandon
9. 78 Proxy
10. 61 Mage

TOP 10 IN THIS WEEK’S NTRA TOP THOROUGHBRED POLL

Arcangelo, who was No. 15 last week, soared to the No. 2 spot in this week’s NTRA Top Thoroughbred Poll in the wake of his win in the Travers.

Cody’s Wish, No. 2 last week, is No. 1 this week.

Elite Power, No. 1 last week, drops to No. 3 this week after finishing second to Gunite in the Grade I Forego Stakes at Saratoga last Saturday.

Gunite is a newcomer on the Top 10 this week at No. 6.

Echo Zulu and Idiomatic are two more newcomers on this week’s Top 10. Echo Zulu is No. 4 after winning Saratoga’s Grade I Ballerina Handicap with aplomb. Idomatic is No. 9 after her front-running win in the Grade I Personal Ensign Stakes at the Spa last Friday (Aug. 25).

Below is the Top 10 in this week’s NTRA Top Thoroughbred Poll:

Rank Points Horse (First-Place Votes)

1. 292 Cody’s Wish (6)
2. 290 Arcangelo (21)
3. 251 Elite Power (3)
4. 216 Echo Zulu (2)
5. 200 White Abarrio (1)
6. 190 Gunite (2)
7. 140 Up to the Mark (2)
8. 79 Casa Creed
9. 67 Idiomatic
10. 65 Nest

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-31-2023, 06:18 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Del Mar - Race #5

#9 Prince Lancealot	Price might be right on this Grade III dropper who only made a mild move with some trouble in the North American debut, but he can probably build on that effort while facing a softer group, and he seems like a late threat today.
#1 Ambivalent	He rallied well off the layoff to score last time out, and he'd be in the mix right back with better if he can step forward at all with that race under his belt. Enough to like in a fun race.
#6 Unconquerable Keen	Love his versatility that has allowed him to turn in big runs on the lead and from far back so far in his North American tries, and maybe that all translates into a decent spying trip today?
Race Summary	Think you can make a good case for several of them in a tough one, but Prince Lancealot has a little midrange price appeal here while dropping out of the Daytona and finding a couple potential pace players to set an honest tempo?

Del Mar - Race #6

#6 Anacaro	She was a little one-paced late in the comeback run, but she caught a good winner that day and presumably has some upside in this one. Sprint to route move might help her home.
#1 Conquistar	She's supposed to win this one on overall form, but she has settled for three runner-up finishes in as many trips to post, and she's probably going to get bet again here. Not totally sold.
#3 Enclosure	She'll go from the same team as the formidable rail runner, but she's getting around two turns for the first time after running evenly going short. Wouldn't surprise to see something better at this longer trip.
Race Summary	Anacaro might be just playable enough on the tote while getting around two turns, as she has a little bit of spying pace and should be in a good spot turning for home while running from off it. Hoping for a small step forward today.

Del Mar - Race #7

#11 Dorine's Wild Cat	She hasn't shown much or made any real moves through three starts, but those have all come going short against better company. The class drop and a more leisurely route tempo might allow her to plug along the whole way and land this.
#5 Midnight Silence	Think she's the solid one to beat, and I wouldn't argue at all with anyone landing here. She has already had a handful of starts, but she found her home with this kind and has a little bit of speed in a race that doesn't have a whole lot of it. Probably right there at the turn in.
#10 Mystra	I wouldn't feel too safe with this one off my tickets, but she's short on excuses at this point in time and races for a barn that is not only cold this meet, but one that typically doesn't do good work locally with these types. I don't know, but she's probably an underlay either way.
Race Summary	Think #8 Mimsy probably belongs on the tickets today, but Dorine's Wild Cat has some appeal on the move around two turns with a potentially nice pressing or spying trip waiting for her on modest splits.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-31-2023, 06:18 AM

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Delaware Park - Race #2

#2 SAGAMOOSE (10-1)	No threat in well-bet debut at this level, adds blinkers, price shot.
#1 STAVROS (7-5)	Beaten by 36-1/2 lengths in three MSW starts for top barns, takes the plunge.
#3 BIG BROOK (4-1)	Good works over track, Rodriguez gets call on one of two Ness-trained firsters.
Race Summary	SAGAMOOSE took money in her debut but lacked kick from a good striking position. His dam was a stakes winner early in her career. He gets blinkers and second-time Lasix. Bet to win and place.

Delaware Park - Race #3

#5 BALI KUTA (6-1)	Ultra-consistent grass router can be excused for latest, price goes up.
#2 NO VALLA (5-2)	Steadied, dueled, held off second favorite at this distance at Monmouth.
#1 WHITE LILACS (9-5)	Carried speed to 5-12 turf record with $120,000 in earnings, draws rail.
Race Summary	BALI KUTA, first or second in 8 of 10 starts at various turf venues, projects an ideal stalking trip at a decent price. She won three times off similar rest in her last seven starts. Bet to win and place.

Delaware Park - Race #4

#1 BAZOO (8-1)	Good first gear, tempting price at proven distance off the claim.
#2 RAISE THE RENT (8-5)	Romped at 5-1/2F, ran second to Caramel Chip (8-31, $203k) when in for tag.
#6 DEFEND (2-1)	Plunges below claim level, adds blinkers, tries to recapture 3-year-old form.
Race Summary	BAZOO steps up in class for a barn whose claim record is far better than recent numbers indicate. He sheds 8 pounds and can use his speed well from the rail in this spot. Play a 1-ALL and 2-1 exactas.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-31-2023, 06:19 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Del Mar

PURCHASE

Del Mar - Race 1	$1 Exacta / $2 Quinella / 50 cent Trifecta / $2 Rolling Double $1 Place Pick All / 50 cent min. Rolling Pick Three $1 Superfecta (10-cent min.) / 50 cent Early Pick 5 / $2 WPS Parlay
Claiming $40,000 • 1 Mile • Turf • Age 3 • CR: 96 • Purse: $53,000 • Post: 2:00P
(RAIL AT 30 FEET). FOR THREE YEAR OLDS. WEIGHT, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF TWO RACES AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE MAY 31 ALLOWED 2 LBS. SUCH A RACE SINCE THEN ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $40,000, IF FOR $35,000, ALLOWED 2 LBS. (MAIDEN RACES AND CLAIMING RACES FOR $32,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED).

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Dominant Stalker. SILENT SUNDAY is the Dominant Stalker of the race. * KEY ANGLES * SINGLE TRACK MIND (IRE): Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/ surface. SILENT SUNDAY: Today is a horse's first or second race on turf, and turf starters from this sire have a win percentage of at least 15 (minimum of 50 starts). Jockey/Trainer combination win percentage is at least 30. HACKING IT UP: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation.
5	SINGLE TRACK MIND (IRE)	6/1	4/1
4	SILENT SUNDAY	8/1	5/1
9	HACKING IT UP	8/1	6/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
6	EDDIE'S LAST	6	5/1	Front-runner	84	78	86.3	80.6	69.1
1	TOM AND JAZZY	1	10/1	Alternator/Front-runner	90	83	74.6	82.0	68.5
4	SILENT SUNDAY	4	8/1	Alternator/Stalker	88	87	88.2	88.2	75.2
5	SINGLE TRACK MIND (IRE)	5	6/1	Alternator/Stalker	92	99	88.0	85.2	79.7
9	HACKING IT UP	9	8/1	Alternator/Stalker	90	89	78.3	81.2	71.7
2	ACQUIRED CLASS	2	3/1	Alternator/Stalker	95	99	52.1	58.8	50.8
3	THEMAINPROTAGONIST (IRE)	3	20/1	Alternator/Trailer	97	99	74.9	66.4	58.4
7	UPWARD MOBILITY	7	6/1	Alternator/Trailer	93	91	63.0	79.2	70.2
10	POWERTRAIN	10	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	77	72	75.8	75.8	57.8
8	POST FACTO	8	4/1	Alternator/Non-contender	90	83	73.4	78.4	66.9

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-31-2023, 06:19 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Delta DownsPURCHASE

Delta Downs - Race 8	Exacta / Trifecta (.50 min.) Superfecta (.10 min) Daily Double (Races 8-9) ($1 min.)
Allowance • 250 Yards • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 85 • Purse: $14,000 • Post: 9:05P
QUARTER HORSE 250Y, FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 126 LBS.; OLDER, 128 LBS. (CONDITION ELIGIBILITY PREFERRED).

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * MEGASTAR CARTEL: Quarter horse has the highest last race Equibase Speed Rating. DLJ JESS THRILL ME: Quarter Horse has a Fast Break Style designation and no horse in a post position next t o it gets out of the gate fast. FACE OF A ROGUE: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. MARVELOUS ONE: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface.
2	MEGASTAR CARTEL	4/1	6/1
8	DLJ JESS THRILL ME	12/1	6/1
5	FACE OF A ROGUE	6/1	7/1
9	MARVELOUS ONE	6/1	7/1
3	MARTINIS MONEYMAKER	20/1	8/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	GUCCIA FAST TEE	1	10/1	Average	82	73	0.0	0.0	0.0
2	MEGASTAR CARTEL	2	4/1	Average	79	83	4.6	0.0	0.0
3	MARTINIS MONEYMAKER	3	20/1	Average	84	81	4.6	0.0	0.0
4	DYNASTY BLOOD	4	10/1	Average	81	82	0.0	0.0	0.0
5	FACE OF A ROGUE	5	6/1	Average	81	84	5.7	0.0	0.0
6	BLUE BUENO	6	20/1	Fast	76	65	2.8	0.0	0.0
7	SHEZ JET FAST	7	9/2	Average	74	76	0.0	0.0	0.0
8	DLJ JESS THRILL ME	8	12/1	Fast	81	83	0.0	0.0	0.0
9	MARVELOUS ONE	9	6/1	Slow	79	82	7.7	0.0	0.0
10	FIVE BAR PRESENCE	10	3/1	Average	85	77	4.7	0.0	0.0

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-31-2023, 06:19 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Colonial Downs

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 7 - Claiming - 5.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $34500 Class Rating: 72

OUTER TURF FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JUNE 30 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $16,000

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 4 BABY LUCK 7/2
# 8 MYSTIC SEAPORT 2/1
# 2 MATTY BO 5/2

BABY LUCK has a very good shot to take this race. Her 75 average has this filly with among the strongest Equibase speed figs in this race. The Equibase Speed Figure of 67 from her most recent race looks quite good in here. Is difficult not to examine given the company run in recently. MYSTIC SEAPORT - Change in Lasix (with second time Lasix) may be the means to a comeback. Hard to pass on this filly with Boyce in the saddle. MATTY BO - Extra focus caused by blinkers change (going off today) likely to result in a big race. Will almost certainly come out solid - I have liked the way this filly has moved quickly to the lead recently.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-31-2023, 06:20 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Camarero Race Track

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 5 - Claiming - 8.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $6000 Class Rating: 76

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON TWO RACES SINCE AUGUST 31 AND WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $8,000 OR LESS. THREE YEAR OLDS, 117 LBS.; OLDER, 121 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE AUGUST 16 ALLOWED 1 LBS. A RACE SINCE JULY 31 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE JUNE 30 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 7 D'GUAPO 10/1
# 8 RUN ON THE TRAIL 7/2
# 2 RED FOG 15/1

D'GUAPO has a formidable shot to take this affair especially at such a decent 10/1. Difficult to pass on this horse with Diaz in the saddle. He has been running strongly and the speed figures are among the strongest in this group. RUN ON THE TRAIL - Conditioner boasts sharp win numbers at this distance and surface. With Santiago in the saddle guiding him, this gelding will probably be able to break out early for this event.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-31-2023, 06:20 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Remington Park - Race #4 - Post: 8:31pm - Maiden Special - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $34,000 Class Rating: 70

Rating:

#4 ACCELERATE JUDY (ML=7/2)

ACCELERATE JUDY - Looking at the pps on all of these ponies, this is the only one to stalk. Worth a long hard look at this horse. The last figure of 70 is the best last race speed figure in the field. Ran last time out against a higher rated class of horses at Lone Star Park. The move down the class scale should suit her well.

Vulnerable Contenders: #5 BULLEIT ROCKS (ML=3/1), #2 BELLE ELENA (ML=4/1), #3 AZTEC CITY (ML=6/1),

BULLEIT ROCKS - I'm foretelling a lackluster go of it out of her in today's event. BELLE ELENA - Not probable that this animal will finish better than she did last time out of the box when finishing sixth. Hasn't hit the board in any short distance events lately. Doubtful to see her doing it this time either. AZTEC CITY - I'm prognosticating a lackluster attempt out of her today.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Bet on #4 ACCELERATE JUDY to win if we can get at least 1/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	4 with [5,9]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Skip
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-31-2023, 06:20 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Belterra Park - Race #1 - Post: 12:05pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $9,100 Class Rating: 67

Rating:

#1 MOMMA RIO (ML=9/2)
#2 ELLIE DELI (ML=5/2)
#3 FLATTER ME ZEN (ML=3/1)

MOMMA RIO - The most dangerous animal in racing is the lone speed horse. If they let her get away early they probably won't catch her. The February 9th contest at Turfway Park was at a class level of (79). Dropping down the class scale a significant amount, so she should be in a good position. Carrying 6 pounds less this race. Trainer has her in a good spot. ELLIE DELI - Hasn't run at today's trip recently but does have a speed rating garnered last time she tried this trip good enough to win. This filly's last speed rating is strong enough to win here, I'll bet on her right back this time out. Ranks number one in earnings per race. A solid outing right here can increase the lifetime bankroll. FLATTER ME ZEN - Have to give this filly a good chance. Ran a sharp contest last time out within the last thirty days. This filly is certainly on the improve with speed figs of 42, 46, 53 last 3 out.

Vulnerable Contenders: #5 WANNAGOCAMPING (ML=7/2), #6 MAXIMUM JOY (ML=5/1), #4 THREE POINT KUZ (ML=8/1),

WANNAGOCAMPING - Tough to take this racer at the odds after the finish position (sixth) in the last race. Run-of-the-mill fig last out at Belterra Park at 5 furlongs. Don't believe this horse will improve too much today. MAXIMUM JOY - 5/1 odds isn't enough for this entrant when scrutinizing the most recent efforts. In any affair of 6 furlongs, I like to wager on a contender that has been looking good in sprint contests recently. THREE POINT KUZ - Tough to take this horse at the odds after the finish (third) in the last event.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Bet on #1 MOMMA RIO to win if we can get at least 7/2 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Skip
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [1,2,3] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-31-2023, 06:22 AM

Del Mar Tip Sheet - August 31

Aug. 30, 2023

Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 65% of the time at this track

RACE #1 $35,000 CLAIMING 1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 5:00 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	4-1	8	Post Facto	T J Pereira
PLACE	6-1	7	Upward Mobility	J J Hernandez
SHOW	3-1	2	Acquired Class	D A Herrera
WILD CARD	8-1	4	Silent Sunday	K J Desormeaux

ALTERNATE 1	6-1	5	Single Track Mind	U Rispoli
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	9	Hacking It Up	A Fresu

* EXACTA: 8-7 BOX, 7-2 BOX, 2-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/7/8 BOX, 2/4/7 BOX

RACE #2 $32,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 5:32 PM ET
BEST BET: #2 SOUTHERN SLANG

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	5-2	2	Southern Slang	D Van Dyke
PLACE	6-5	5	Greenteaze	E A Maldonado
SHOW	5-1	1	Youreinthearmynow	R Gonzalez
WILD CARD	5-1	4	Im Gunna	U Rispoli

ALTERNATE 1	4-1	6	Just Step On It	A Aguilar

* EXACTA: 2-5 BOX, 5-1 BOX, 1-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/5 BOX, 1/4/5 BOX

RACE #3 $82,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 1 1/16 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 6:03 PM ET
BEST BET: #2 LUKA GRAZIE

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	3-1	2	Luka Grazie	J J Hernandez
PLACE	5-2	1	Dark Marcus	R A Vazquez
SHOW	4-1	10	Chrome to Riches	A Fresu
WILD CARD	4-1	3	Maxville	R Gonzalez

ALTERNATE 1	6-1	9	Silver N Black	K J Desormeaux
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	4	Stop Whining	M Gutierrez

* EXACTA: 2-1 BOX, 1-10 BOX, 10-3 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/10 BOX, 1/3/10 BOX

RACE #4 $83,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING 1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 6:34 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	8-5	5	Liberal Lady	D A Herrera
PLACE	5-2	4	Rose Dawson	J J Hernandez
SHOW	4-1	8	Trouville	A Fresu
WILD CARD	5-1	6	Unfaithful Ways	J Torrealba

ALTERNATE 1	6-1	1	Cliquish	R A Vazquez
ALTERNATE 2	15-1	2	Keen Lady	T J Pereira

* EXACTA: 5-4 BOX, 4-8 BOX, 8-6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4/5/8 BOX, 4/6/8 BOX

RACE #5 $84,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING 5 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 7:05 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	4-1	1	Ambivalent	M Gutierrez
PLACE	5-2	6	Unconquerable Keen	J Bravo
SHOW	3-1	4	Standing O	U Rispoli
WILD CARD	7-2	7	Zoffarelli	H I Berrios

ALTERNATE 1	12-1	5	Arman	A Fresu
ALTERNATE 2	15-1	2	Evenerevenworse	E A Maldonado

* EXACTA: 1-6 BOX, 6-4 BOX, 4-7 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/4/6 BOX, 4/6/7 BOX

RACE #6 $82,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 7:35 PM ET
BEST BET: #1 CONQUISTAR

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	8-5	1	Conquistar	J J Hernandez
PLACE	5-1	6	Anacaro	M E Smith
SHOW	6-1	5	Colettes Joy	A Aguilar
WILD CARD	4-1	3	Enclosure	H I Berrios

ALTERNATE 1	8-1	2	Duchessofbayridge	T J Pereira
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	8	Golden Skyline	D A Herrera

* EXACTA: 1-6 BOX, 6-5 BOX, 5-3 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/5/6 BOX, 3/5/6 BOX

RACE #7 $83,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING 5 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 8:05 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	5-2	4	Just Nails	K J Desormeaux
PLACE	3-1	8	Organic	U Rispoli
SHOW	5-1	10	Shes Resilient	M Gutierrez
WILD CARD	5-1	5	Denim in Gold	E A Maldonado

ALTERNATE 1	6-1	6	Hayley Levade	V Espinoza
ALTERNATE 2	6-1	7	Halfway to Nowhere	J Torrealba

* EXACTA: 4-8 BOX, 8-10 BOX, 10-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4/8/10 BOX, 5/8/10 BOX

RACE #8 $20,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING 1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 8:35 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	3-1	10	Vulin	A Fresu
PLACE	5-2	5	Midnight Silence	J Bravo
SHOW	5-1	9	Princess Tenko	A Ayuso
WILD CARD	6-1	8	Mimsy	G Franco

ALTERNATE 1	15-1	2	Shambala Girl	R Gonzalez
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	11	Dorines Wild Cat	J Torrealba

* EXACTA: 10-5 BOX, 5-9 BOX, 9-8 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 5/9/10 BOX, 5/8/9 BOX

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-31-2023, 06:22 AM

Horseshoe Indianapolis Tip Sheet - August 31

Aug. 30, 2023

Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 63% of the time at this track

RACE #1 $5,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING 5 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:10 PM ET
BEST BET: #4 ANGELSNDISGUISE

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	7-5	4	Angelsndisguise	F De La Cruz
PLACE	5-2	6	Woo Woo Girl	M Anderson
SHOW	6-1	8	Cabin Abby	M Burnham
WILD CARD	9-2	7	Golden Heist	C Hughes

ALTERNATE 1	20-1	2	Paddis Wish	S E Bermudez
ALTERNATE 2	20-1	5	Ziinzi	A Burgos

* EXACTA: 4-6 BOX, 6-8 BOX, 8-7 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4/6/8 BOX, 6/7/8 BOX

RACE #2 $12,500 MAIDEN CLAIMING 1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:41 PM ET
BEST BET: #2 BREAKOUT STAR

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	5-2	2	Breakout Star	F De La Cruz
PLACE	4-1	8	Matlock	J D Ramos
SHOW	9-2	7	Small Sailor	M Burnham
WILD CARD	7-2	5	Risky Choice	H Leahey

ALTERNATE 1	15-1	6	Reiteration	S E Bermudez
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	3	Totalitarian	E E Perez

* EXACTA: 2-8 BOX, 8-7 BOX, 7-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/7/8 BOX, 5/7/8 BOX

RACE #3 $36,000 ALLOWANCE 5 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 3:12 PM ET
BEST BET: #8 LA V.

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	9-5	8	La V.	K J Asmussen
PLACE	20-1	1	Azurita	E Esquivel
SHOW	3-1	5	Mornin Boss	F Peterson
WILD CARD	5-1	2	Yoga Queen	T Canuto

ALTERNATE 1	10-1	9	Montgomery Park	O Mojica

* EXACTA: 8-1 BOX, 1-5 BOX, 5-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/5/8 BOX, 1/2/5 BOX

RACE #4 $5,000 CLAIMING 1 MILE 70 YARDS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:43 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	3-1	2	Mygaljustice	J Morales
PLACE	2-1	1	West Coast Justice	M Burnham
SHOW	12-1	5	Suttons Pass	F De La Cruz
WILD CARD	5-1	7	Red Rosebush	J D Ramos

ALTERNATE 1	6-1	3	New Years Delight	S E Bermudez
ALTERNATE 2	6-1	6	Lizzsaidno	M Anderson

* EXACTA: 2-1 BOX, 1-5 BOX, 5-7 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/5 BOX, 1/5/7 BOX

RACE #5 $12,500 CLAIMING 1 1/16 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 4:14 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	9-2	4	Oh Pollyanna	J D Ramos
PLACE	5-2	7	Band of Roses	A P Ulloa
SHOW	5-1	1	Ligeia	W A Rodriguez
WILD CARD	7-2	6	Bia Bolt Runner	E E Perez

ALTERNATE 1	15-1	3	Seachrome	J Morales
ALTERNATE 2	20-1	8	In a Peach	R Aragon

* EXACTA: 4-7 BOX, 7-1 BOX, 1-6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/4/7 BOX, 1/6/7 BOX

RACE #6 $38,500 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:45 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	7-2	2	Captains Best	S E Bermudez
PLACE	3-1	9	Dattts Life	O Mojica
SHOW	6-1	7	Kingsbury Road	E E Perez
WILD CARD	8-1	8	Cinco de Oros	H Leahey

ALTERNATE 1	9-2	6	Greewhiz	F De La Cruz
ALTERNATE 2	10-1	5	Discreet Justice	A P Ulloa

* EXACTA: 2-9 BOX, 9-7 BOX, 7-8 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/7/9 BOX, 7/8/9 BOX

RACE #7 $20,000 STARTER OPTIONAL CLAIMING 1 1/16 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 5:16 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	8-5	7	Summer Assault	J D Ramos
PLACE	6-1	5	Graceful Kitten	E Esquivel
SHOW	3-1	3	Leave It to Kitten	A Burgos
WILD CARD	10-1	6	Nicholas Jones	R A Prescott

ALTERNATE 1	10-1	10	Yak	E Esquivel
ALTERNATE 2	15-1	4	Charlies Medal	F De La Cruz

* EXACTA: 7-5 BOX, 5-3 BOX, 3-6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/5/7 BOX, 3/5/6 BOX

RACE #8 $42,000 ALLOWANCE 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 5:47 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	5-1	4	Image Run	E Esquivel
PLACE	9-2	5	Imagine the Moon	A Burgos
SHOW	10-1	6	Bella Bolle	J D Ramos
WILD CARD	3-1	3	Ekati Flatter	S E Bermudez

ALTERNATE 1	8-1	2	Cactus Flower	R A Prescott
ALTERNATE 2	4-1	8	Trafalgar Shore	R Diaz

* EXACTA: 4-5 BOX, 5-6 BOX, 6-3 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4/5/6 BOX, 3/5/6 BOX

RACE #9 $34,000 STAKES 350 YARDS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 6:15 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	7-2	3	Tachas Secret	F Morin
PLACE	3-1	10	Carters Law	A Rodriguez
SHOW	12-1	11	Kaysweetlass	M Munoz
WILD CARD	5-1	4	Rk Lady Dana	F Quintero

ALTERNATE 1	9-2	7	Jess Go Blue	R D Pina
ALTERNATE 2	15-1	6	On a New Note	E N Esqueda

* EXACTA: 3-10 BOX, 10-11 BOX, 11-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/10/11 BOX, 4/10/11 BOX