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Jeremy Plonk: Kentucky Downs Today | Sunday, September 3, 2023

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September 3, 2023 | By Jeremy Plonk
First Post:

1:30 pm ET

Extra Juice:

$10 Money-Back Special on all races. Up to $10 back if your win bet finishes 2nd, 3rd when you play with Xpressbet or 1/ST BET

Featured Races:

Race 10 – $1 million Dueling Grounds Oaks

Race 11 – $1 million Dueling Grounds Derby

Race 12 - $500,000 Handicap

Betmix Stat of the Day:

Seven of the first 21 races at the 2023 Kentucky Downs meeting have been won by horses 10-1 or more odds with an average winner at 8.4-1 odds. Favorites are 6-for-21 (29%), which tracks identically with the last five years of local racing (93-324, 29%).

Jeremy’s Best Bets:

It was a brutal beat yesterday with 24-1 Stitched leading every call until losing by a half-length in the $2 million Mint Millions. Hopefully you got some exacta or place action.

Race 1 (1:30 pm ET)

#4 Smokey Smokey (7-2 ML)

Outdueled a 6-5 favorite for Wesley Ward in Saratoga 2-year-old turf sprint debut, but lost the war when second-best to rallying winner. Should carry speed the mile trip in second start based on pedigree and additional foundation. Lean to experience in these 2-year-old maiden races as 7 of 8 at meet (and over 75% historically) are won by horses with at least one prior start.

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Race 5 (3:41 pm ET)

#2 Love to Eat (8-1 ML)

Troubled start at Saratoga we can draw a line through the end result, it’s the debut third rally behind a 1-2 carousel that I like most about this filly. The runner-up in that Ellis race came back to whistle by nearly 4 lengths the next time. Daughter of sprint champ Mitole, who has turf winners at Colonial and Woodbine in limited starters since going to stud, Love to Eat’s dam was solid on both dirt and turf and won her third career start, the same form cycle we hit here. Like Race 1, a reminder: Lean to experience in these 2-year-old maiden races as 7 of 8 at meet (and over 75% historically) are won by horses with at least one prior start.

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Race 10 (6:28 pm ET)

#8 Flashy Gem (4-1 ML)

Respect the strong paces this one has been a part of at Canterbury and Ellis in her last two (:47, 1:10-2/5 in each) and how that will translate in the Dueling Grounds Oaks with her on or near the lead over a 1-5/16 miles trip most of these won’t want to go. Expect her to control the tempo and the outcome for a Corrales/Cox team that’s 34% wins and 54% in the exacta from 70 tandem starts.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jeff Siegel's What You Need to Know - Del Mar - 9/3/23

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September 3, 2023
“What You Need to Know” – Del Mar
by Jeff Siegel, 1stbet.com Handicapper & Analyst

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, and Workout Commentary identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
*
For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
*
Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play

__________________________________________________ ____________________________
RACE 1: Post: 1:30 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 2-Hondo Crouch; 3-California Tiger
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.

Forecast: Hondo Crouch earned a career top speed figure when second in a similar state-bred maiden special weight sprint here last month and not much more will be needed to earn his diploma in this moderate affair. The Mark Glatt-trained gelding should settle in the second flight and have dead aim and every chance from the quarter pole home. California Tiger, a beaten favorite when fifth the same race our top pick exits, gets off the race and probably will be in the first flight throughout. His race before last – a nose defeat last spring at Santa Anita – charts quite well and makes him a “must use” in rolling exotic play.

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RACE 2: Post: 2:04 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 1-Precocious Times; 7-In Your Face.
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.

Forecast: Precocious Times lands the good rail and is guaranteed to soft, ground-saving trip. She ran into a roadblock when third in a similar affair, and a strong case can be made she actually should have won. With clear sailing today, the John Sadler-trained filly should be along in time. In Your Face makes her second start off a layoff and should be fitter and sharper today after finishing second in the same race our top pick exits. She has a prior win over the local lawn and with expected improvement today the Peter Eurton-trained daughter of Violence projects to settle in the second flight and then produce a dangerous late kick.

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RACE 3: Post: 2:36 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 5-Breakfast Ride; 6-Divine Armor
Backups/savers/Underneath: none.

Forecast: Breakfast Ride, a first-off-the-claim play for Peter Miller, makes his first start since being gelded, so we’re expecting the son of Distorted Humor to improve considerably over a main track we know he prefers. There are a couple of speed types drawn inside, so we anticipate him settling in the second flight outside and then responding when called upon. Additionally, he’s reunited with “win rider” Juan Hernandez, another najor plus factor. Divine Armor was scratched yesterday for this spot and probably can improve his last outing. However, the barn has been ice cold in recent months and makes him hard to back with confidence.

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RACE 4: Post: 3:07 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 3-Daddysruby; 4-Gentle
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.

Forecast: Daddysruby is undefeated in three starts and moves into open company after handling state-bred rivals over the local lawn in gate to wire fashion last month with a career top speed figure. She’s certainly not a need-the-lead type, so top rider Juan Hernandez can assess the early pace flow and pick his strategy. Gentle was very impressive in victory when breaking her maiden fresh off the place last month over this course and distance while earning speed figure good enough to win right back at this level. She needs to be held up early before producing her strong late kick.

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RACE 5: Post: 3:38 PT Grade: C+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 5-Strange Addiction
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.

Forecast: Strange Addiction doesn’t have a whole lot to beat in this maiden $50,000 claiming abbreviated sprint so we’ll go with her on top but without any great degree of confidence in a race that really offers no viable alternative. This will be her first start in a seller and the class drop should make a winning difference. The daughter of Good Magic is listed as the 5/2 morning line favorite, and we probably should not take much less.

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RACE 6: Post: 4:10 PT Grade: C+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 10-Over Attracted; 7-Teen Drama.
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 8-Inner Beauty, 12-Rakassah.

Forecast: Over Attracted was overmatched in the Osunitas Stakes around two turns but today drops in class and backs up to a sprint,. A two time winner over the local lawn and arguably most effective going short, she projects to enjoy a comfortable second flight trip and have her chance to tag the speed close home. Teen Drama just won at this level over this course last month with a solid number, and if she can turn in two alike the Steve Knapp-trained filly can be dangerous again. We’ll sink or swim using just these two on our main ticket but if you feel the need to include a few more, go right ahead.

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RACE 7: Post: 4:40 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 6-Mr Fisk; 1-Tahoe Sunrise
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 2-Clouseau.

Forecast: Mr Fisk had a disastrous trip in the Oceanside Stakes on grass, so just toss that race out and key on his excellent runner up performance behind Geaux Rocket Ride in the Affirmed Stakes at Santa Anita. He’s reunited with “win rider” Juan Hernandez and could produce a winning late kick if given the patient ride he prefers. Trainer Bob Baffert’s other entrant has a big chance as well. Tahoe Sunrise stretches out for the first time and based on pedigree the son of American Pharoah should handle the trip. From his inside draw, he might be wise to take the initiative as the controlling speed, and with steadily rising speed figures he could easily be this good at 4-1 on the morning line.

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RACE 8: Post: 5:10 PT Grade: C+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 3-Don’t Ju Forget; 11-Cornelia Fort; 12-Golden Again
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.

Forecast: Don’t Ju Forget seems as good as any in this first level allowance turf raffle for fillies and mares. Second in her last pair with solid numbers, the daughter of Misremembered is drawn nicely inside and should settle into an ideal second flight, ground-saving trip and have every chance when the pressure is turned on. She’s unproven around two turns but we still believe that under the right conditions she can handle the distance. Cornelia Fort and Golden Again have form that make them contenders but are drawn poorly for this distance and will need some luck to get over and save ground before the field hits the clubhouse turn. Tread lightly here.

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RACE 9: Post: 5:40 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 9-She Is Romantic
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 5-Spice; 3-Tap Your Dream.

Forecast: She Is Romantic had enough trouble from her rail post position to cost her a chance when debuting in a similar maiden main track sprint for juvenile fillies last month. The Peter Eurton-trained daughter of Blame, a $550,000 OBS April sale purchase, remains highly regarded and should be given a chance to step forward big time from today’s much better post. Two nice easy breezes since raced should tick her over nicely. Spice and Tap Your Dream were impressive in the preview sessions at their respective sales and both could be live at first asking. Toss then in for protection.

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RACE 10: Post: 6:10 PT Grade: A-
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 5-Almendares; 2-Conclude
Backups/savers: none.

Forecast: We absolutely loved the way Almendras blew past his outclassed rivals in his U.S. debut in a much softer allowance event earlier this meeting and despite the step up class we think the Phil D’Amato-trained gelding can handle this tougher assignment, especially with an extra furlong to work with. We expect to see him settled somewhere in mid-pack and then be ready to cut loose when given his cue at the head of the lane. D’Amato also will saddle the morning line favorite, Conclude, who is a quality colt but may be challenged by today’s trip. If allowed to cruise early without being pressured, the son of Collected could take this field a very long way.

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RACE 11: Post: 6:40 PT Grade: B
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 6-Big Hand; 1-James Gang
Backups/savers: none.

Forecast: Big Hand is the one to beat in the nightcap, assuming he has one good one left. The Tim Yakteen-trained gelding plummets to the $16,000 restricted (nw-2) claiming level after failing to be competitive in a string of allowances races, so it appears he’s simply being culled from the stable. At 4-1 on the morning line he’d be a reasonable gamble, but we suspect he’ll go lower in this six furlong main track dash. James Gang is a “must use” in his first start since being claimed for Doug O’Neill for this price last month. We like the blinkers off maneuver and the bullet gate drill since raced.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jeff Siegel's What You Need to Know - Saratoga - 9/3/23

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September 3, 2023
“What You Need to Know” - Saratoga
by Jeff Siegel, 1stbet.com Handicapper & Analyst

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, and Workout Commentary identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
*
For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
*
Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play

__________________________________________________ ____________________________
RACE 1: Post: 12:40 ET Grade: B
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 8-Weigh the Risks; 7-Appellate
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.

Forecast: Weight the Risks was supposed to win her debut (she was even money) but just fell short by a neck, though to be truthful she did have every chance to seal the deal in the closing stages but simply couldn’t get by the winner. The number was okay, not great, so she has something to prove. Appellate also missed in a photo in her first start when rallying into slow fractions to fall a bit short in a promising run for trainer Todd Pletcher. Like our top pick, she has every right to produce a significant forward move.

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RACE 2: Post: 1:13 ET Grade: B-
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 9-Mim; 4-Bon Adieu
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.

Forecast: Mim shows up in a claimer for the first time and should greatly appreciate the class drop. She has numbers that are good enough to win in this maiden $30,000 state-bred level, and while the class drop is understandable her morning line of 9/5 doesn’t make her any great gamble. Bon Adieu is another first-time-in-a-claimer play and shows speed figures similar to our top pick’s. She’s a one-paced grinder but that style works at this seven furlong distance in a field such as this.

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RACE 3: Post: 1:48 ET Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 4-Olympic Dreams; 5-Film Star
Backups/savers/Underneath: none.

Forecast: Olympic Dreams earned a career top speed figure when winning over this track and distance last month and looks capable of winning right back with a repeat of that effort today. He’s a versatile type that can win as the controlling speed or from a stalking position, so regular rider Trevor McCarthy can assess the pace flow and choose his strategy. Film Star has been stuck on seconds – he’s been a runner-up in his last five outings – though in his last start he wound up more than eight lengths clear of the rest while running a winning race in defeat. He’s clearly the one to fear most.

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RACE 4: Post: 2:19 ET Grade: X
Main ticket (in order of preference): 7-Magnolia Midnight
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 1-Durkin’s Call.

Forecast: Magnolia Midnight crushed a restricted ($35,000) field by 11 lengths in an off-the-turf affair here in mid-July but was a voided claim and returned to the Linda Rice barn. Today he shows up for $16,000 and likely will win again at a short price if he can make it past the morning vet inspection. If it’s not him, Durkin’s Call is the logical alternative. This is probably a good race to sit out.

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RACE 5: Post: 2:52 ET Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 2-Cowes; 10-Piccata Prince
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.

Forecast: Cowes has recorded a few good workout clocking’s and seems cranked up for a good effort in his debut in this restricted maiden special weight turf dash for juveniles. We haven’t seen him on video so we’re operating on blind faith. Piccata Prince has the benefit of a prior run over this course and distance and did well to close with interest before winding up a solid second, but with an ordinary speed figure. There really isn’t much to work with here.

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RACE 6: Post: 3:26 ET Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 2-Genetics
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 4-Alpine Princess; 5-Nikitis; 9-Caitlinheergrtness.

Forecast: Genetics ran a winning race in her debut but had to settle for third after breaking slowly, moving up to press the pace, hitting the front, failing to change leads, and then paying the price late. She’ll be fitter and stronger today for trainer Bill Mott, so if she doesn’t make any mistakes the daughter of Tapit should be set to graduate. An easy breeze to tick her over since raced is another positive factor, though once again she failed to change leads in that drill.
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RACE 7: Post: 4:00 ET Grade: C+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 2-Ski Patrol; 1a-Jarreau/1-Watasha; 3-Born a Gambler
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 4-Empire Attraction.

Forecast: Ski Patrol makes his first start since being claimed for $50,000 by Linda Rice and is protected by his new barn in a sign of confidence. He lands the good inside post and is guaranteed and ground-saving, second flight trip in this nine furlong starter allowance turf event for older horses. He’s a lightly raced 5-year-old gelding with the possibility of improvement, though he’s always been a one paced grinding type and not really one to trust. Jarreau was nosed out in a similar affair over the local lawn last month in a solid performance that if repeated today makes him the one to beat. The problem is he’s just 2-for-25 with 13 seconds and thirds and has never been known to give you too much under pressure when it counts the most. Born a Gambler is a fit on numbers and has a reasonable look based on his solid score at Belmont Park two races back.

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RACE 8: Post: 5:10 ET Grade: C+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 10-Dontmesswithtess; 9-Proud Foot
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.

Forecast: Dontmesswithtess struck the front too soon and was worn down late when second in a similar starter allowance turf event at Belmont Park in mid-July and returns following a nearly two month vacation in a race her best can win. She’s been giving herself too much to do in recent races; hopefully she can keep the leaders in sight during the early stages this time. Proud Foot returns to grass and may prefer this surface, though her dirt form isn’t bad. The Linda Rice-trained mare is a one-paced sort more likely to finish second and third (13 times) than win (twice). Both should be included in rolling exotic play plus you can toss in anything else that catches your eye.

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RACE 9: Post: 5:10 ET Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 8-Ways and Means; 9-Brightwork
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.

Forecast: Ways and Means won off and hid in her debut like a top prospect and will be favored to step up and repeat in this year’s renewal of the Spinaway Stakes-G1 for juvenile fillies. She won with plenty left and was extremely fast with a huge speed figure. This task will be tough, but she could be something special. Brightwork already is a two-time stakes winner with numbers that continue to rise. Her style suggests that this seven furlong trip will be well within her range and we’re expecting the daughter of Outwork will give our top pick plenty to think about.

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RACE 10: Post: 5:44 ET Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 8-Adressable Market; 9-Dark Pool
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.

Forecast: Addressable Market has been sparingly raced and is returning off yet another layoff (nearly three months) but on form she beats this field, though twice in three career starts she has failed to deliver the goods when favored. Dark Pool, a solid runner-up in her only outing at Laurel Park last month when protected for this price in a two turn grass affair, is likely to improve with that race under her belt and earned a number in that race that makes her dangerous on this circuit. We’re expecting the winner to be one of these two.

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[Can'tPickAWinner]

Al Cimaglia: Red Mile Under The Lights Early Pick 4 Analysis

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September 3, 2023 | By Al Cimaglia
This is a rare occasion as tonight, The Red Mile will be racing under the lights. The 14-race card starts at 5:50 PM EST. The headliners are 2-year-old Kentucky breds competing in Sires Stakes action. The $1.00 Pick 4 has a low 12% takeout and a $10,000 guaranteed pool. The sequence rolls in Race 6, and it will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 6 (7:25 PM EST)

1-Jules Hill (5-1)-If Tyler Smith stays close to the two chalks (3-6) and works a stalking trip good things could happen. It's s short field but will look for an honest pace and that will help down the lane.
6-Every Man Dreams (8/5)-This Burke trainee lost to the program chalk, #2-Direction by a length but this is a revenge opportunity that could go his way. In context that was his 1st start at Lex and was off a couple of weeks. Winner of 2 straight can keep the streak alive with a smooth trip.

Race 7 (7:44 PM EST)

1-In Or Out (8-1)-Twice beaten chalk steps up but raced better last time. Dunn sticks with the Ryder entry #7 but having Tim Tetrick take over won't hurt. Will look for some value as the chalk deserves respect but is not a true standout.
4-Doctrine (3-1)-Has been a bridesmaid in the last 2 starts and should be in the mix. Could top this bunch but at a short price would be tough to swallow.
5-Odds On Live Ball (3-1)-My feeling is the team Wrenn entry will be overlooked and offer a solid price. Broke slowly in last and had to come 1st over. Then hung in the lane and wasn't as good as some others. Didn't quit and did beat #4 the race before. Using and looking for a better trip.
7-Moonlight Miki (8/5)-Did just enough to win as an odds-on chalk and now steps up. Not sure how good this freshman can be. Was still able to get his nose on the wire first, and the trip wasn't the best. Will respect connections but not sure if worthy of strong favoritism.

Race 8 (8:03 PM EST)

1-Flawless (9/5)-Last week Gingras got caught wide into the opening turn and had to work hard before ending up in the pocket. The one below proved to be the best and his trip wasn't great either. Best to respect from the rail but not loving the short price.
5-Fearless Bettor (5/2)-Comes off an impressive win, was behind stalled cover and when shook free, gobbled up ground down the lane to beat the one above. Offers some value and has 3 wins in 4 starts with one 2nd place finish at Lex.

Race 9 (8:22 PM EST)

7-Karl (1-1)-Wasn't fully on board with Karl last week in his Red Mile debut. Used him on my ticket but wasn't sold he would win at first asking in Kentucky, and that was way off base. Drew off by over 7 lengths to beat 4 from this field in 152.1, which he did all on his own. Doesn't need to lead right off the gate but looks the best unless the trip is very bumpy.

$1.00 Late Pick 4

1,6/1,4,5,7/1,5/7
Total Bet=$16

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

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Del Mar - Race #1

#3 California Tiger	Hoping the guy drawn just inside of him will help keep the price just on the edge of playable, as he's got a couple lengths to turn on that guy but probably has a little room to bounce back.
#2 Hondo Crouch	Guessing one of these two shorter-priced runners will land the opener, and this guy should be in line for another decent trip while close to whatever pace there is.
#5 City of Angels	He only chased briefly before giving way in the debut try, but he's not meeting a whole lot outside of the top pair and might have enough upside to land a small share today.
Race Summary	California Tiger might offer a touch better price this time around, and he should get a pretty good trip while right up on the splits. Not the worst single to kick off the Pick-5.

Del Mar - Race #9

#6 Glo Glo	Get a look at her on the track and tote ahead of this, but the team has done some decent work with similar runners here the last few years and might have this one ready to go out of the box.
#11 Elegant	She's obviously a big player in here despite fading late at even money in her debut run, but she might relax and stick around a bit better while losing blinks. Barn dominates these races locally, but I wouldn't be too thrilled to sign up for a short price here.
#9 She Is Romantic	I wasn't mad about the debut run on the turf here last month, and she might be able to find a pretty sweet spying trip from out here. Potential underlay?
Race Summary	Glo Glo makes her first trip to post with a bit of appeal in a race where a couple with experience further outside might dominate the wagering.

Del Mar - Race #10

#5 Almendares	He looked good in the American debut here in July, and I'm not sure he's all that far off the better runners in here if he can bring something similar or take a small step forward. Let's see how good he is.
#2 Conclude	I wasn't totally sure he could shut off enough to settle in a race with a decent bit of pace on paper last out, but he spied that leader and moved nicely when asked. Something similar makes him tough with these with an advantageous race flow waiting for him, but I worry he'll be overbet against what feels like a competitive group.
#3 Maltese Falcon	Think there is a really good case for any of these top three, and this guy landed his first career win in Grade III company here last month. Reliable finisher might be along too late here, but maybe he brings a more tactical trip like last time out if the pace is modest.
Race Summary	Almendares impressed here in July, and I'm hoping the price will stay just honest enough while he takes this class test. Mild worry about the race shape, but he might not care.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Kentucky Downs Tip Sheet - September 3

Sep. 02, 2023


Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 53% of the time at this track.

RACE #1 $150,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 1:30 PM ET
BEST BET: #4 SMOKEY SMOKEY
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	7-2	4	Smokey Smokey	G Corrales
PLACE	5-1	5	Frontline Warrior	J L Ortiz
SHOW	15-1	11	Modica	F Geroux
WILD CARD	4-1	3	Hanalei Bay	T Gaffalione
ALTERNATE 1	9-2	10	Crusading	C A Torres
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	9	Adventurous Spirit	J Rosario
* EXACTA: 4-5 BOX, 5-11 BOX, 11-3 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4/5/11 BOX, 3/5/11 BOX
RACE #2 $150,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 7 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 2:02 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	4-1	14	Blessing the Flag	V Cheminaud
PLACE	3-1	16	Le Beau	T Gaffalione
SHOW	5-2	1	Best Performer	T Gaffalione
WILD CARD	9-2	8	Junoesque	C J Lanerie
ALTERNATE 1	8-1	11	Beautiful Mandate	F Geroux
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	7	Inventing Anna	G Corrales
* EXACTA: 14-16 BOX, 16-1 BOX, 1-8 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/14/16 BOX, 1/8/16 BOX
RACE #3 $180,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING 6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 2:34 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	15-1	3	Chewing Gum	J L Ortiz
PLACE	8-5	7	Let My People Go	R Bejarano
SHOW	6-1	5	Cloudy	V Cheminaud
WILD CARD	7-2	2	Purple Dream	J Talamo
ALTERNATE 1	12-1	8	Two Birds	J Graham
ALTERNATE 2	9-2	4	Mark of the Z	J Rosario
* EXACTA: 3-7 BOX, 7-5 BOX, 5-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/5/7 BOX, 2/5/7 BOX
RACE #4 $160,000 ALLOWANCE 1 5/16 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 3:06 PM ET
BEST BET: #14 TRULY QUALITY
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	7-2	14	Truly Quality	F Geroux
PLACE	9-2	2	King Curlin	C A Emigh
SHOW	3-1	15	Baba Voss	T Gaffalione
WILD CARD	7-2	8	Tulchan	J Rosario
ALTERNATE 1	6-1	1	Fearless Soldier	J L Ortiz
ALTERNATE 2	6-1	7	Sherlocks Jewel	V Cheminaud
* EXACTA: 14-2 BOX, 2-15 BOX, 15-8 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/14/15 BOX, 2/8/15 BOX
RACE #5 $150,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 7 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 3:41 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	9-2	11	Savannamarie	C J Lanerie
PLACE	8-1	2	Love to Eat	G Corrales
SHOW	10-1	15	Spiritual Lady	T Gaffalione
WILD CARD	7-2	6	Block Trade	T Gaffalione
ALTERNATE 1	4-1	4	Pendulum	D Cannon
ALTERNATE 2	10-1	5	Sierra Sky	J L Ortiz
* EXACTA: 11-2 BOX, 2-15 BOX, 15-6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/11/15 BOX, 2/6/15 BOX
RACE #6 $50,000 CLAIMING 1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 4:14 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	7-2	9	Aaliyah Ezri	G Corrales
PLACE	2-1	3	Strong Odor	J Rosario
SHOW	5-1	7	Russian Mafia	C J Lanerie
WILD CARD	12-1	8	Guana Cay	A Beschizza
ALTERNATE 1	6-1	5	Forever Dreaming	C A Torres
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	6	Founders Day	E Morales
* EXACTA: 9-3 BOX, 3-7 BOX, 7-8 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/7/9 BOX, 3/7/8 BOX
RACE #7 $150,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 1 1/2 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 4:48 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	1-1	8	Swore	T Gaffalione
PLACE	2-1	13	Smart Uncle	F Geroux
SHOW	10-1	12	Missionaire	C A Torres
WILD CARD	12-1	6	Fast Chad	G Corrales
ALTERNATE 1	9-2	3	Qualified	J Rosario
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	10	Surface to Air	A Beschizza
* EXACTA: 8-13 BOX, 13-12 BOX, 12-6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 8/12/13 BOX, 6/12/13 BOX
RACE #8 $70,000 STARTER ALLOWANCE 1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 5:21 PM ET
BEST BET: #4 SICILIAN GRANDMA
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	3-1	4	Sicilian Grandma	F Geroux
PLACE	10-1	8	Strand of Gold	E J Zayas
SHOW	4-1	1	R Rose All Day	T Gaffalione
WILD CARD	15-1	9	Cant Keep Me Down	G Corrales
ALTERNATE 1	8-1	2	Autism Community	J Talamo
ALTERNATE 2	7-2	3	Air One	J Riquelme
* EXACTA: 4-8 BOX, 8-1 BOX, 1-9 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/4/8 BOX, 1/8/9 BOX
RACE #9 $170,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING 1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 5:54 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-2	6	Golden Alchemist	T Gaffalione
PLACE	8-1	5	Johnys Fireball	M Garcia
SHOW	20-1	2	Policy Option	F Arrieta
WILD CARD	4-1	3	Fort Washington	J L Ortiz
ALTERNATE 1	5-1	7	Point Me By	D Cannon
ALTERNATE 2	6-1	12	Kentucky Ghost	F Geroux
* EXACTA: 6-5 BOX, 5-2 BOX, 2-3 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/5/6 BOX, 2/3/5 BOX
RACE #10 $1,000,000 STAKES 1 5/16 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 6:28 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	7-2	4	Safeen	T Gaffalione
PLACE	4-1	8	Flashy Gem	G Corrales
SHOW	20-1	3	Sabalenka	D Cannon
WILD CARD	15-1	1	Callies Grit	C A Torres
ALTERNATE 1	5-1	5	Mrs. Astor	F Geroux
ALTERNATE 2	30-1	2	Soft Talk	L R Rivera
* EXACTA: 4-8 BOX, 8-3 BOX, 3-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/4/8 BOX, 1/3/8 BOX
RACE #11 $1,000,000 STAKES 1 5/16 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 7:00 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	7-2	1	Red Route One	C A Torres
PLACE	8-5	9	Far Bridge	J L Ortiz
SHOW	15-1	3	Really Good	F Geroux
WILD CARD	6-1	7	Highway Robber	M Murrill
ALTERNATE 1	20-1	10	Battle of Normandy	T Gaffalione
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	6	Anglophile	D Cannon
* EXACTA: 1-9 BOX, 9-3 BOX, 3-7 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/3/9 BOX, 3/7/9 BOX
RACE #12 $500,000 HANDICAP 1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 7:32 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	9-2	10	Time for Trouble	J Talamo
PLACE	6-1	9	Fuerteventura	F Geroux
SHOW	5-2	1	Siege of Boston	J Ruiz
WILD CARD	7-2	2	Eons	J Rosario
ALTERNATE 1	6-1	4	King Cause	G Corrales
ALTERNATE 2	15-1	5	Accredit	L Machado
* EXACTA: 10-9 BOX, 9-1 BOX, 1-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/9/10 BOX, 1/2/9 BOX

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Saratoga Hotlist - September 3

Sep. 02, 2023


By Matt Shifman and Bob Ehalt
Hot List Key:
A: A preferred horse to watch B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4^th or worse
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.
1^st race [NY, Md Sp Wt, 1 1/16 mi TURF] – (7) Appellate had the lead after rallying and was beaten by a head in her debut for Todd Pletcher at 5-1. (8) Weigh the Risks was second by a neck in her first start for Chad Brown after closing from the back of the field as a heavy favorite. (4) Progeny has an excellent work tab for her debut for George Weaver showing a couple of turf works. (5) Later Darling dwelt at the start of her first race for Pletcher and then rallied from far back to finish fourth after making up a lot of ground.
2^nd race [NY, Md 30000, 7F] – (5) Scherzer (B) back in May was head strong and hard to handle when finishing fourth in her debut at Belmont Park. (9) Mim ran well in five starts in maiden special weights and now makes the drop into a claimer. (4) Bon Adieu could get the same comment as the second choice Mim. (2) Marley’s Ghost has a pair of second-place finishes at this level in his most recent starts.
3^rd race [NY, Alw 149500, 1 1/8 mi] – (4) Olympic Dreams won his way through the NY-bred allowance conditions impressively with a second in a state-bred stakes race mixed in there. (5) Film Star has five second-place finishes in a row at this allowance level. (1) Leading Contender / (1A) Moore’s Law make a Chad Brown entry where both are win contenders. (2) Certified Loverboy was an impressive maiden winner last time in a race that came off the turf.
9^th race [Spinaway (G1), 7F] – (8) Ways and Means (A) got bumped around at the break of her debut but ran away from the field by almost 13 lengths. (3) Sugar Hi (A) was a six length winner of her first race for Bill Mott whose youngsters improve a lot in their second starts. (1) Miz Sense (A) rallied to an easy win in her first start for Todd Pletcher. (9) Brightwork has a perfect record in three starts with a five-length score in the Adirondack (G3) at Saratoga.
Best bets: Olympic Dreams (3^rd); Ways and Means (9^th). Best value: Appellate (1^st); Scherzer (2^nd).

No.	Name	Letter/ last race	Today's Race	Comments
(5)	Scherzer	B on 5/12	2	Headstrong and hard to handle in debut.
(1)	Miz Sense	A on 7/30	9	Open length winner in debut for Pletcher.
(3)	Super Hi	A on 7/13	9	Wrapped up debut winner for Bill Mott.
(8)	Ways and Means	A on 8/6	9	Winner by almost 13 lengths after a rough start.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Kentucky Downs Hotlist - September 3

Sep. 02, 2023


By Bob Ehalt and Matt Shifman
Hot List Key:
A : A preferred horse to watch B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches in the final 3 minutes and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4^th or worse
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.
1st race – (3) Hanalei Bay was second in his debut. Gets Gaffalione and graduates today. (11) Modica tired in his debut and may improve off that effort. (4) Smokey Smokey was also second in his debut and should like the longer distance. (5) Frontline Warrior was an even third in his debut and seems capable of a better try here. Betting strategy: 3 to win, place. Exacta box: 3-4-5-11.
4th race – (1) Fearless Soldier has a nice turn of speed and may be hard to catch here. (12) Our Dream Rye’d will be a factor if he can overcome the post. (8) Tulchan has never been worse than third in four career starts and belongs in the exotics. (3) Winston Wolf flopped as a favorite but can rebound here. Betting strategy: 1 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-3-8-12.
5th race – (6) Block Trade debuts for Brown and seems best in this field. (7) Talonnade had a useful debut and will be the main threat. (11) Savannamarie has interesting breeding for turf. (4) Pendulum may swing into action here. Betting strategy: 6 to win, place. Exacta box: 4-6-7-11.
7th race – (8) Swore was third by only a neck at Saratoga and was moved up to 2^nd through a DQ. Makes amends for that setback here. (1) The Jackal will be dangerous from the rail. (3) Qualified should be closing at the end. (6) Fast Chad has some appeal in this field. Betting strategy: 8 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-3-6-8.
10th race – (4) Safeen has two wins in her last three starts and looks best here. (5) Mrs. Astor should be helped by the longer distance. (8) Flashy Gem is worth a look while stretching out. (1) Callie’s Grit gets back on turf and could take a step forward. Betting strategy: 4 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-4-5-8.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Saratoga Tip Sheet - September 3

Sep. 02, 2023


Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 65% of the time at this track.

RACE #1 $136,500 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 1 1/16 MILES ON THE INNER TURF - POST TIME: 12:40 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-2	8	Weigh the Risks	I Ortiz Jr.
PLACE	7-2	7	Appellate	J Castellano
SHOW	9-2	5	Later Darling	R Santana Jr.
WILD CARD	10-1	1	Stents and Statins	F Prat
ALTERNATE 1	6-1	9	Sensing Flatter	M Franco
ALTERNATE 2	20-1	11	Ba Dee Yah	K Carmouche
* EXACTA: 8-7 BOX, 7-5 BOX, 5-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 5/7/8 BOX, 1/5/7 BOX
RACE #2 $30,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING 7 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 1:13 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	7-2	4	Bon Adieu	K Davis
PLACE	9-5	9	Mim	D Davis
SHOW	8-1	2	Marleys Ghost	J Lezcano
WILD CARD	8-1	7	Sweet Liberty	J A Davis
ALTERNATE 1	10-1	8	Northway	I Ortiz Jr.
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	3	Follow the Fed	R Silvera
* EXACTA: 4-9 BOX, 9-2 BOX, 2-7 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/4/9 BOX, 2/7/9 BOX
RACE #3 $149,500 ALLOWANCE 1 1/8 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 1:48 PM ET
BEST BET: #4 OLYMPIC DREAMS
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	2-1	4	Olympic Dreams	T McCarthy
PLACE	9-5	5	Film Star	I Ortiz Jr.
SHOW	5-1	1A	Moores Law	F Prat
WILD CARD	10-1	6	Implementation	M Franco
ALTERNATE 1	15-1	2	Certified Loverboy	D Davis
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	3	The Princes Spur	K Carmouche
* EXACTA: 4-5 BOX, 5-1 BOX, 1-6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/4/5 BOX, 1/5/6 BOX
RACE #4 $16,000 CLAIMING 1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:19 PM ET
BEST BET: #7 MAGNOLIA MIDNIGHT
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	7-5	7	Magnolia Midnight	I Ortiz Jr.
PLACE	8-1	6	Hammerin Aamer	T McCarthy
SHOW	9-2	1	Durkins Call	D Davis
WILD CARD	10-1	2	Silver Dust	J Lezcano
ALTERNATE 1	9-2	1A	Invisible War	J Alvarado
ALTERNATE 2	20-1	4	Hang Tight	K Davis
* EXACTA: 7-6 BOX, 6-1 BOX, 1-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/6/7 BOX, 1/2/6 BOX
RACE #5 $83,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 5 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 2:52 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-2	10	Piccata Prince	M Franco
PLACE	6-1	6	Magic Beach	F Prat
SHOW	7-2	2	Cowes	J Lezcano
WILD CARD	8-1	13	Yaqui Valley	M Franco
ALTERNATE 1	10-1	1A	King Freud	J A Gomez
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	4	Three Point Strut	R Santana Jr.
* EXACTA: 10-6 BOX, 6-2 BOX, 2-13 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/6/10 BOX, 2/6/13 BOX
RACE #6 $136,500 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 7 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:26 PM ET
BEST BET: #2 GENETICS
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	3-1	2	Genetics	J Lezcano
PLACE	4-1	4	Alpine Princess	M Franco
SHOW	8-1	7	Snow Dance	R Silvera
WILD CARD	6-1	10	Scalable	I Ortiz Jr.
ALTERNATE 1	5-1	9	Caitlinhergrtness	J R Velazquez
ALTERNATE 2	5-1	5	Nikitis	F Prat
* EXACTA: 2-4 BOX, 4-7 BOX, 7-10 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/4/7 BOX, 4/7/10 BOX
RACE #7 $70,000 STARTER ALLOWANCE 1 1/8 MILES ON THE INNER TURF - POST TIME: 4:00 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	7-2	2	Ski Patrol	F Prat
PLACE	7-2	9	Harry Hood	J R Velazquez
SHOW	3-1	1A	Jarreau	I Ortiz Jr.
WILD CARD	10-1	7	Indian Mischief	J Lezcano
ALTERNATE 1	9-2	4	Empire Attraction	K Carmouche
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	3	Born a Gambler	M Franco
* EXACTA: 2-9 BOX, 9-1 BOX, 1-7 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/9 BOX, 1/7/9 BOX
RACE #8 $70,000 STARTER ALLOWANCE 1 1/8 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 4:36 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	8-1	1	River Tay	K Davis
PLACE	10-1	9	Proud Foot	J Lezcano
SHOW	5-1	8	Diamond Status	J R Velazquez
WILD CARD	5-2	10	Dontmesswithtess	I Ortiz Jr.
ALTERNATE 1	8-1	1A	From Hello	T McCarthy
ALTERNATE 2	5-1	14	Thestral	Rider TBA
* EXACTA: 1-9 BOX, 9-8 BOX, 8-10 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/8/9 BOX, 8/9/10 BOX
RACE #9 $300,000 STAKES 7 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 5:10 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-2	9	Brightwork	I Ortiz Jr.
PLACE	7-5	8	Ways and Means	F Prat
SHOW	6-1	3	Sugar Hi	J Alvarado
WILD CARD	15-1	6	Alys Beach	D Davis
ALTERNATE 1	15-1	1	Miz Sense	M Franco
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	7	Wonder Ride	J R Leparoux
* EXACTA: 9-8 BOX, 8-3 BOX, 3-6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/8/9 BOX, 3/6/8 BOX
RACE #10 $40,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING 1 1/16 MILES ON THE INNER TURF - POST TIME: 5:44 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	9-2	3	Whiskey Lullaby	R Santana Jr.
PLACE	7-2	8	Addressable Market	I Ortiz Jr.
SHOW	5-1	9	Dark Pool	D Davis
WILD CARD	4-1	1	Jet City Woman	J R Velazquez
ALTERNATE 1	12-1	12	Lakeside Getaway	T McCarthy
ALTERNATE 2	5-2	15	Duke Girls	M Franco
* EXACTA: 3-8 BOX, 8-9 BOX, 9-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/8/9 BOX, 1/8/9 BOX

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Golden Gate Tip Sheet - September 3

Sep. 02, 2023


Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 69% of the time at this track.

RACE #1 $12,500 MAIDEN CLAIMING 5 FURLONGS ON THE ALL WEATHER TRACK - POST TIME: 4:45 PM ET
BEST BET: #3 ARTESIAN FLOW
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	9-5	3	Artesian Flow	F Duran
PLACE	7-2	4	Mumbles Brockman	F T Alvarado
SHOW	5-2	5	Thirsty for Love	S Rivera
WILD CARD	5-1	6	Icy Mischief	L M Jimenez Aburto
ALTERNATE 1	10-1	2	God Is a Gael	C Herrera
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	1	Weeping Willows	A Castellanos
* EXACTA: 3-4 BOX, 4-5 BOX, 5-6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/4/5 BOX, 4/5/6 BOX
RACE #2 $10,500 CLAIMING 5 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE ALL WEATHER TRACK - POST TIME: 5:19 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	9-5	4	Chaokoon	A Chavez
PLACE	2-1	3	Dinos Dixie	F Duran
SHOW	9-2	2	Wild Billy D	B Pena
WILD CARD	5-2	5	George Herman Ruth	F T Alvarado
ALTERNATE 1	10-1	1	Mr. Fighter	P Flores
* EXACTA: 4-3 BOX, 3-2 BOX, 2-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/3/4 BOX, 2/3/5 BOX
RACE #3 $12,500 MAIDEN CLAIMING 5 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE ALL WEATHER TRACK - POST TIME: 5:51 PM ET
BEST BET: #6 CHROMES BEST COPY
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-2	6	Chromes Best Copy	E A Roman
PLACE	9-5	3	Standforgrit	W Antongeorgi III
SHOW	5-1	2	Smilin Ruby	C Herrera
WILD CARD	6-1	4	Ammara	H Herrera
ALTERNATE 1	7-2	1	Rafanelli	A Chavez
ALTERNATE 2	10-1	5	Zee Perfect Run	A Castellanos
* EXACTA: 6-3 BOX, 3-2 BOX, 2-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/3/6 BOX, 2/3/4 BOX
RACE #4 $32,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS ON THE ALL WEATHER TRACK - POST TIME: 6:22 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	8-5	1	Rager	A Espinoza
PLACE	2-1	2	Trip to Spain	A Chavez
SHOW	3-1	5	Playing Hardball	C Martinez
WILD CARD	5-1	3	Unraptured	F T Alvarado
ALTERNATE 1	8-1	4	Cool Mountain Lad	E A Roman
* EXACTA: 1-2 BOX, 2-5 BOX, 5-3 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/5 BOX, 2/3/5 BOX
RACE #5 $22,500 MAIDEN CLAIMING 5 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE ALL WEATHER TRACK - POST TIME: 6:53 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	6-1	4	Twelve Volt	B Pena
PLACE	5-2	6	Regal Redwood	A Chavez
SHOW	8-5	5	Alpine Sermon	F T Alvarado
WILD CARD	6-1	3	Randysfurryfriend	S Rivera
ALTERNATE 1	8-1	2	Ramathorn	L M Jimenez Aburto
ALTERNATE 2	5-1	1	It Aint Over	A Gomez
* EXACTA: 4-6 BOX, 6-5 BOX, 5-3 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4/5/6 BOX, 3/5/6 BOX
RACE #6 $12,500 MAIDEN CLAIMING 5 FURLONGS ON THE ALL WEATHER TRACK - POST TIME: 7:25 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	9-5	4	Half Throttle	F T Alvarado
PLACE	9-2	2	Ill Smokem	S Rivera
SHOW	5-2	3	Puddin Head Jones	C Herrera
WILD CARD	12-1	6	Uncle Leon	A Castellanos
ALTERNATE 1	10-1	7	Old Triangle	H Herrera
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	1	Far to Long	W Antongeorgi III
* EXACTA: 4-2 BOX, 2-3 BOX, 3-6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/3/4 BOX, 2/3/6 BOX
RACE #7 $33,000 ALLOWANCE 6 FURLONGS ON THE ALL WEATHER TRACK - POST TIME: 7:55 PM ET
BEST BET: #2 MISS UNION
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	9-2	2	Miss Union	E A Roman
PLACE	2-1	1	Blue Wildcat	A Espinoza
SHOW	9-5	4	Lexington Humor	B Pena
WILD CARD	7-2	5	Anthonys Cleopatra	F T Alvarado
ALTERNATE 1	8-1	3	Tams Little Angel	C Martinez
* EXACTA: 2-1 BOX, 1-4 BOX, 4-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/4 BOX, 1/4/5 BOX
RACE #8 $30,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 6 FURLONGS ON THE ALL WEATHER TRACK - POST TIME: 8:25 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	4-1	2	Laura Branigan	W Antongeorgi III
PLACE	2-1	3	Giant Kid	A Espinoza
SHOW	5-2	1	Magic Wanderer	S Rivera
WILD CARD	10-1	5	Gadding	L M Jimenez Aburto
ALTERNATE 1	6-1	4	Fly South	E A Roman
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	6	Berry Valley	A Chavez
* EXACTA: 2-3 BOX, 3-1 BOX, 1-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/3 BOX, 1/3/5 BOX

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Del Mar Tip Sheet - September 3

Sep. 02, 2023


Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 65% of the time at this track

RACE #1 $82,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:30 PM ET
BEST BET: #2 HONDO CROUCH
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	9-5	2	Hondo Crouch	A Fresu
PLACE	2-1	3	California Tiger	H I Berrios
SHOW	5-1	4	Ghostly Act	J Couton
WILD CARD	12-1	1	El Rey Dorado	E A Maldonado
ALTERNATE 1	6-1	8	Cribbage Board	D Van Dyke
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	6	Information	J Torrealba
* EXACTA: 2-3 BOX, 3-4 BOX, 4-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/3/4 BOX, 1/3/4 BOX
RACE #2 $43,000 STARTER ALLOWANCE 1 1/16 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 5:04 PM ET
BEST BET: #2 RUFF RIDE
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	3-1	2	Ruff Ride	J J Hernandez
PLACE	5-2	1	Precocious Times	H I Berrios
SHOW	3-1	7	In Your Face	D Van Dyke
WILD CARD	4-1	3	Tiergarten	U Rispoli
ALTERNATE 1	5-1	5	Dolly May	A Ayuso
ALTERNATE 2	10-1	4	Corporal Violette	J Torrealba
* EXACTA: 2-1 BOX, 1-7 BOX, 7-3 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/7 BOX, 1/3/7 BOX
RACE #3 $84,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING 1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 5:36 PM ET
BEST BET: #5 BREAKFAST RIDE
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	2-1	5	Breakfast Ride	J J Hernandez
PLACE	4-1	6	Divine Armor	A Fresu
SHOW	7-2	3	Affable	D A Herrera
WILD CARD	6-1	4	K P Kwest	R A Vazquez
ALTERNATE 1	12-1	2	Mbagnick	H I Berrios
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	7	Restrainedvengence	G Franco
* EXACTA: 5-6 BOX, 6-3 BOX, 3-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/5/6 BOX, 3/4/6 BOX
RACE #4 $83,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING 1 1/16 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 6:07 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	2-1	3	Daddysruby	J J Hernandez
PLACE	5-2	4	Gentle	U Rispoli
SHOW	5-1	9	Sell the Dream	R A Vazquez
WILD CARD	6-1	8	Tea N Conversation	T J Pereira
ALTERNATE 1	10-1	6	Carole Lombard	H I Berrios
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	5	Luminiferous	A Fresu
* EXACTA: 3-4 BOX, 4-9 BOX, 9-8 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/4/9 BOX, 4/8/9 BOX
RACE #5 $50,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING 5 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 6:38 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	4-1	1	Hollywood Rumor	D A Herrera
PLACE	5-2	5	Strange Addiction	R A Vazquez
SHOW	10-1	6	Smiling Amy	A Fresu
WILD CARD	8-1	9	Just Is	H I Berrios
ALTERNATE 1	5-1	4	Fursace	J Valdivia Jr.
ALTERNATE 2	6-1	3	Chevy Girl	K J Desormeaux
* EXACTA: 1-5 BOX, 5-6 BOX, 6-9 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/5/6 BOX, 5/6/9 BOX
RACE #6 $28,000 CLAIMING 5 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 7:10 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	7-2	7	Teen Drama	U Rispoli
PLACE	8-1	4	Dancing Soul	C Ortega
SHOW	5-1	12	Rakassah	R Gonzalez
WILD CARD	4-1	8	Inner Beauty	J J Hernandez
ALTERNATE 1	5-1	10	Over Attracted	J Bravo
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	6	Gypsy Lynn	K J Desormeaux
* EXACTA: 7-4 BOX, 4-12 BOX, 12-8 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4/7/12 BOX, 4/8/12 BOX
RACE #7 $125,000 STAKES 1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 7:40 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	4-1	1	Tahoe Sunrise	V Espinoza
PLACE	6-1	2	Clouseau	H I Berrios
SHOW	2-1	6	Mr Fisk	J J Hernandez
WILD CARD	5-2	3	Henry Q	A Fresu
ALTERNATE 1	12-1	4	Low Expectations	M Gutierrez
ALTERNATE 2	3-1	5	Smart Mo	J Bravo
* EXACTA: 1-2 BOX, 2-6 BOX, 6-3 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/6 BOX, 2/3/6 BOX
RACE #8 $83,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING 1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 8:10 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	8-1	11	Cornelia Fort	K J Desormeaux
PLACE	3-1	3	Dont Ju Forget	A Fresu
SHOW	5-1	9	Issa Court	J J Hernandez
WILD CARD	8-1	12	Golden Again	T J Pereira
ALTERNATE 1	4-1	6	Song of Fire	G Franco
ALTERNATE 2	15-1	8	Sensible Move	R A Vazquez
* EXACTA: 11-3 BOX, 3-9 BOX, 9-12 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/9/11 BOX, 3/9/12 BOX
RACE #9 $82,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 8:40 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	8-5	11	Elegant	J J Hernandez
PLACE	5-2	9	She Is Romantic	A Fresu
SHOW	4-1	5	Spice	U Rispoli
WILD CARD	8-1	12	Pacific Rose	M Gutierrez
ALTERNATE 1	6-1	4	Dont Bring Crazy	T J Pereira
ALTERNATE 2	5-1	6	Glo Glo	R A Vazquez
* EXACTA: 11-9 BOX, 9-5 BOX, 5-12 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 5/9/11 BOX, 5/9/12 BOX
RACE #10 $300,000 STAKES 1 1/8 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 9:10 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	9-5	2	Conclude	H I Berrios
PLACE	3-1	3	Maltese Falcon	J J Hernandez
SHOW	15-1	4	Reiquist	R A Vazquez
WILD CARD	3-1	5	Almendares	A Fresu
ALTERNATE 1	12-1	7	Smart Code	M E Smith
ALTERNATE 2	15-1	1	Ah Jeez	T J Pereira
* EXACTA: 2-3 BOX, 3-4 BOX, 4-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/3/4 BOX, 3/4/5 BOX
RACE #11 $14,000 CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 9:40 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	7-2	10	James Gang	A Fresu
PLACE	4-1	8	Cathedral Light	J Torrealba
SHOW	4-1	6	Big Hand	R A Vazquez
WILD CARD	12-1	9	Sir Flatter	T J Pereira
ALTERNATE 1	5-1	13	Missed Call	R A Vazquez
ALTERNATE 2	15-1	12	What an Idea	D Van Dyke
* EXACTA: 10-8 BOX, 8-6 BOX, 6-9 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 6/8/10 BOX, 6/8/9 BOX

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Timonium

PURCHASE

Timonium - Race 3	EXACTA, TRIFECTA &DAILY DOUBLE (RACES 3-4) / 10 cent SUPERFECTA 50 cent PICK 3 (RACES 3-4-5)
Maiden Claiming $12,500 • 4 Furlongs • Dirt • Age 2 • CR: 46 • Purse: $20,000 • Post: 1:27P
(PLUS UP TO 15% MBF) FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 122 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $12,500.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Lone Front-runner. NOW I'M HERE is the Lone Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * NOW I'M HERE: Horse is dropping into a race which has an Class Rating at least five points lower than the Class Rating of its last race. ANOTHERDAYOFW ORK: Today is a sprint and the horse's last start was within the last ten days. EL DORADO QUEEN: A first time starter with a trainer that has a return on investment with first time starters of at least +50 (minimum 10 starts). CUNDI: Today is a spr int and the horse's last start was within the last ten days. STOLEN LAUGHTER: Jockey/Trainer combination return on investment is at least +20.
2	NOW I'M HERE	2/1	7/2
5	EL DORADO QUEEN	3/1	9/1
1	ANOTHERDAYOFWORK	15/1	9/1
3	CUNDI	10/1	9/1
6	STOLEN LAUGHTER	5/2	9/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
2	NOW I'M HERE	2	2/1	Front-runner	0	0	59.7	25.6	21.1
1	ANOTHERDAYOFWORK	1	15/1	Alternator/Trailer	0	0	31.8	24.1	21.6
3	CUNDI	3	10/1	Alternator/Trailer	0	0	19.7	25.9	21.4

Unknown Running Style: SOMETHING SILLY (7/2) [Jockey: Hiraldo John - Trainer: Robb Gina], EL DORADO QUEEN (3/1) [Jockey: Hernandez Jorge F - Trainer: Gonzalez Claudio A], STOLEN LAUGHTER (5/2) [Jockey: Perez Xavier - Trainer: Robb Gina].

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for LethbridgePURCHASE

Lethbridge - Race 6	Exactor / Triactor / Superfecta
Allowance • 5 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 60 • Purse: $7,800 • Post: 3:20P
QUARTER HORSE 5F, FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 124 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Dominant Front-runner. DEFINITE PLEASURE (T) is the Dominant Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * ABRAA JABRAA (T): Horse is highest ranked on Good Speed and Good Class. Horse is dropping into a race which has an Class Rating at le ast five points lower than the Class Rating of its last race. DEFINITE PLEASURE (T): Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. Today is a sprint, horse is a Front-runner with an inside post p osition. COUNTESS CAT (T): Horse is dropping into a race which has an Class Rating at least five points lower than the Class Rating of its last race. Today is a sprint, horse is a Front-runner with an inside post position. CAPALLI (T): Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days.
1	ABRAA JABRAA (T)	1/1	9/2
4	DEFINITE PLEASURE (T)	3/1	9/2
2	COUNTESS CAT (T)	5/2	6/1
7	CAPALLI (T)	5/1	8/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
4	DEFINITE PLEASURE (T)	4	3/1	Front-runner	62	57	0.0	56.9	53.9
7	CAPALLI (T)	7	5/1	Front-runner	63	55	0.0	47.4	41.4
1	ABRAA JABRAA (T)	1	1/1	Alternator/Front-runner	77	80	0.0	0.0	0.0
2	COUNTESS CAT (T)	2	5/2	Alternator/Front-runner	67	63	0.0	0.0	0.0
3	TRUST ELLA	3	6/1	Alternator/Stalker	68	53	0.0	37.2	29.7
6	CANDY RED (T)	6	8/1	Trailer	68	57	0.0	0.0	0.0
5	FOREST SONG (T)	5	10/1	Alternator/Non-contender	74	46	0.0	0.0	0.0

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Emerald Downs - Race #8 - Post: 5:51pm - Optional Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $25,000 Class Rating: 100

Rating:

#2 YOU'RE THE CAUSE (ML=12/1)
#5 SMILING GOODBYE (ML=6/1)
#4 EL ALTO HOMBRE (ML=8/1)
#8 PRAYER OF JABEZ (ML=4/1)


YOU'RE THE CAUSE - I know the outfit is serious today. The gelding gets Lasix for the first time. Multiple wins in this horse's life, all at Emerald Downs. Could add another win right here. SMILING GOODBYE - You always have to be on the lookout for bankroll building jock/handler combinations; we have one right here. That last workout tells me this gelding is set for a top effort. EL ALTO HOMBRE - This gelding is in fine condition, having run a nice race on Aug 20th, finishing third. PRAYER OF JABEZ - This gelding is in nice condition. Ran second on Aug 20th. The 100 last race speed fig looks mighty good on paper. Came home in quick time in the last race. A positive sign.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 MISSED THE BOAT (ML=5/2), #6 LANGSTON ROAD (ML=9/2), #3 MUNCEY (ML=6/1),

MISSED THE BOAT - I don't normally play a chalk horse that hasn't been to the track in the last few weeks. He's almost certainly going to get baked on the top end. May bounce off of that last bang up job. LANGSTON ROAD - There's speed, early zip, and more early speed in this race. Doesn't look promising for this animal. MUNCEY - You figure that this horse is going to finish first just because he's always close. Just doesn't finish on top frequently.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#2 YOU'RE THE CAUSE is the play if we get odds of 5/1 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [2,4,5]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Skip
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip