Tuesday 9/5/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[ConleyPicks]

TOKYO BRANDON

Event: (929) Seattle Mariners at (930) Cincinnati Reds

Sport/League: MLB (See all free Major League Baseball picks)

Date/Time: September 5, 2023 6:40 PM EDT

Free Major League Baseball Pick Today: Seattle Mariners -152 B Miller (RHP), C Phillips (RHP) Must Start

The Reds rotation has been decimated by COVID-19 and they have none of their top 4 starters from opening day. They are calling up Connor Phillips out of lack of any other choices. He has a 1.41 WHIP in the minors and has major command issues. Even in the minors he has trouble putting guys on base and two starts ago allowed 6ER in 2IP, and has allowed 10ER his last 3 starts.

The Mariners are better at everything, they have more HRs and a better bullpen. Take the Mariners here at -180 or better.

[ConleyPicks]

TOKYO BRANDON
Event: (929) Seattle Mariners at (930) Cincinnati Reds

Sport/League: MLB (See all free Major League Baseball picks)

Date/Time: September 5, 2023 6:40 PM EDT

Free Major League Baseball Pick Today: Bryce Miller Over 15.5 Outs Recorded

Miller is averaging 16.1 outs per start and the Reds stretch out starts by 0.2 outs the last 10 days. My over 15.5 projections win 57.7% of the time and this projection is 0.8, my projections over between 0.5 and 1 are winning 62%. Bet his over 15.5 outs recorded.

book projection average player
15.5 16.3 16.1 Bryce Miller


W L W%
Over 15.5 30 22 57.7%


W L W%
0.5 - 1 Over 40 24 62.5%

[ConleyPicks]

TOKYO BRANDON
Event: (905) New York Mets at (906) Washington Nationals

Sport/League: MLB (See all free Major League Baseball picks)

Date/Time: September 5, 2023 7:05 PM EDT

Free Major League Baseball Pick Today: Jose Quintana Over 16.5 Outs Recorded

Quintana averages 17.5 outs per start and has a really good history vs Washington batters. I project this at 18 so a play on the over 16.5 is a good value play. My Quintana overs are 2-0 this season.



book projection average player
16.5 18.0 17.5 Jos

[ConleyPicks]

JAZZ RAY
Event: (909) San Francisco Giants at (910) Chicago Cubs

Sport/League: MLB (See all free Major League Baseball picks)

Date/Time: September 5, 2023 7:40 PM EDT

Free Major League Baseball Pick Today: Chicago Cubs -139 Action

I think Chicago is worth the price of admission in this spot. The Cubs continue to push towards a possible wildcard, taking the opener here yesterday 5-0. The Giants are reeling now after four straight losses, as their playoff hopes continue to slide. This is a starting pitching matchup working in favor of Chicago, and I'm not expecting any upsets here today, with Kyle Hendricks (5-7, 3.59 ERA) being the difference-maker for me in this matchup. There's a bit of uncertainty about who will start for San Francisco today, but whoever does eventually take the hill, this particular play is all about Hendricks, who is 1-1 with a 2.48 ERA over his last five starts. Over his last three home starts he's posted a 1.96 ERA. I think at this price, and considering how "in form" Hendricks is right now, that the savvy call in this matchup is to lay the price and play the Cubs ACTION.

[ConleyPicks]

DREW MARTIN
Event: (923) Houston Astros at (924) Texas Rangers

Sport/League: MLB (See all free Major League Baseball picks)

Date/Time: September 5, 2023 8:05 PM EDT

Free Major League Baseball Pick Today: Texas Rangers +105 F Valdez (LHP), N Eovaldi (RHP) Must Start

Lonestar state battle between the Texas Rangers and the Houston Astros with playoff implications involved. We are jumping on the Rangers in tonight's big game at the plus price. Natan Eovaldi gets the start for Texas and the veteran righty makes his first start off a precautionary IL stint. The last time Eovaldi faced this Astros lineup he shut them out through seven strong innings, only letting up two hits. Framber Valdez gets the start for the Astros and the last time he faced Texas he was smacked around giving up six runs and did not make it out of the third inning. Similar situation for tonight. The home dog is barking. Bet Texas.

[ConleyPicks]

RONALD CABANG
Event: (927) Toronto Blue Jays at (928) Oakland Athletics

Sport/League: MLB (See all free Major League Baseball picks)

Date/Time: September 5, 2023 9:40 PM EDT

Free Major League Baseball Pick Today: Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 (-113) C Bassitt (RHP), K Waldichuk (LHP) Must Start

Starting Pitchers
Chris Bassitt (TOR):
With 28 starts under his belt, Bassitt has pitched 165.1 innings this season. His K/9 is a solid 8.22, and his BB/9 is a respectable 2.83. His ERA sits at 3.81, but his FIP is higher at 4.56, indicating potential negative regression.

Ken Waldichuk (OAK):
Waldichuk has made 19 starts this season, accumulating 86 innings pitched. His K/9 is 8.69, but his BB/9 is quite high at 4.81. His ERA is 6.07 with a FIP of 6.13, suggesting that his performance is as bad as it appears.

Team Batting
Blue Jays:
The Blue Jays have a wRC+ of 109 and a wOBA of .327. They average around 1.18 HRs per game with an ISO of .161. Their BABIP is .307, which suggests they've been relatively lucky.

Athletics:
The Athletics have a wRC+ of 89 and a wOBA of .294. They average fewer home runs per game at 1.03 and have a lower ISO of .145. Their BABIP is .276, suggesting they have room for positive regression.

Bullpen
Blue Jays:
The Blue Jays bullpen boasts a K/9 of 9.7 and a low BB/9 of 2.96. Their ERA is 3.55, and the FIP is 3.84, indicating a stable and effective bullpen.

Athletics:
The Athletics' bullpen has a K/9 of 8.34 and a high BB/9 of 4.85. Their ERA is a whopping 5.32 with a FIP of 4.83, indicating a shaky bullpen performance.

Summary
Starting Pitching:
Chris Bassitt offers a more reliable performance with better control and a more favorable ERA. Waldichuk struggles with control and has an inflated ERA and FIP, indicating negative regression.

Offense:
The Blue Jays have the upper hand offensively with a higher wRC+, wOBA, and HR/G. They also have a higher BABIP, but it's likely sustainable given their hard-hit and barrel percentages.

Bullpen:
The Blue Jays' bullpen is far superior, offering better control and a lower ERA. The Athletics' bullpen is struggling in all metrics, especially in control and earned runs.

Projected Score
TOR: 6 vs. OAK: 3

[ConleyPicks]

TOKYO BRANDON
Event: (913) Philadelphia Phillies at (914) San Diego Padres

Sport/League: MLB (See all free Major League Baseball picks)

Date/Time: September 5, 2023 9:40 PM EDT

Free Major League Baseball Pick Today: Michael Lorenzen Over 16.5 Outs Recorded

Lorenzen averages 17.9 outs per start and the Padres help pitchers extend their outings by 0.9 outs a start. Lorenzen has great numbers vs Padre batters (sub .700 OPS against) and my projections are 2-0 on his over projections. Take the over 16.5 outs recorded. Lorenzen has reached 5.2 innings in all but 1 of his last 5 starts.



book projection average player
16.5 18.8 17.9 Michael Lorenzen

[ConleyPicks]

JIMMY ADAMS
Event: (927) Toronto Blue Jays at (928) Oakland Athletics

Sport/League: MLB (See all free Major League Baseball picks)

Date/Time: September 5, 2023 9:40 PM EDT

Free Major League Baseball Pick Today: Toronto Blue Jays Total Over 4.5 (-130) K Waldichuk (LHP) Must Start

Ken Waldichuk was pushed back to Tuesday so yesterday’s free play was graded no action. We’ll take the same approach as he gets set to take the mound for game two. This was my partial analysis for yesterday’s contest:


We’ll jump on the Blue Jays Team Total in what is an important series for Toronto. Games like these are imperative for the Blue Jays as they continue to fight for a Wild Card spot. We’ll focus on fading Ken Waldichuk and his 5.52 FIP. Waldichuk’s analytics are terrible, ranking in the 3rd percentile in pitching run value and entering with a wOBA of .374. He also had 5 walks in his last start and has a hard hit rate of 42.3%. Waldichuk faced Toronto earlier in the season, getting rocked for 6 earned in just 2.1 innings. Take the Blue Jays Team Total OVER.