Monday 9/11/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-11-2023, 05:12 AM

Al Cimaglia: Yonkers Raceway Late Pick 4 Analysis

September 11, 2023 | By Al Cimaglia
Yonkers Raceway has a 10-race card to begin the week. The 0.50 Pick 5 with a $10,000 guaranteed pool goes in Race 5. The $1.00 Late Pick 4 starts in Race 7, and it will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 7

2-Barrywhite Hanover (12-1)-Was claimed by the Stratton barn and should be forwardly placed in a race without proven $30k claimers. The driver change to Jordan Stratton should help and will look for a price play with this 7-time winner in 2023.
5-Two Faced (2-1)-Program chalk tried to go gate to wire last time but faded down the lane. Bartlett returns and that shouldn't hurt. Could take a picture with a sharp steer.

Race 8

2-Nandolo N (5/2)-Steps-up after a solid win and still fits with this group. Could get an efficient trip and double up.
3-Rocknroll Runa A (7/2)-Runa is in good form and Kakaley could work a stalking trip. There should be an honest pace and this veteran might finish best of all.
4-Funatthebeach N (5-1)-Back in town after facing some tough foes north of the border. Stratton has some choices off the gate and has enough gate speed to land in a close-up seat.

Race 9

1-Komodo Beach (7/2)-Came up empty at Philly in the 1st start off a sick scratch. Was bet hard and Stratton gets the call, and the 5-year-old has beaten better here. Has been camera shy this year but could handle this kind if 100%.
2-Mr Ibiza N (4-1)-Bumps up after coming 2nd in a fast mile and Kakaley takes the lines. Should be racing with the leaders and seems to be acclimated to the US.
5-Family Recipe (3-1)-Drops to a soft spot and has the gate speed to land on top. Should be in play off the gate and may have met a beatable field.

Race 10

2-Sauvignon Bluechip (7/2)-Knows how to win but has to do it the hard way here because this gelding lacks gate speed. My thinking is there will be a decent pace and Brennan will have in striking range at the 3/4's pole.
5-Wichita Lineman (5/2)-Even at the age of 10 this is the best horse in the field, but recent form has been spotty. This veteran also isn't loaded with gate speed these days. Raced better in last, Bartlett gets the assignment and could be sitting on a big try.

$1.00 Late Pick 4

2,5/2,3,4/1,2,5/2,5
Total Bet=$36

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-11-2023, 05:13 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Presque Isle Downs - Race #3

#4 Rusty My Brother	Hoping she'll be just playable enough in this short field, as I like that she's got a little rating ability to her and might be able to just tuck off the more committed pace players.
#5 Simply Stated	She draws well to force the issue the entire way from the outside, and there's nothing wrong with the recent form that has her here in search of a fourth straight score. The one to beat while making her local debut.
#2 Shoshanah	She looks like she might be the quickest of the potential forward players, and she has flashed some pretty decent form over the local footing in the past. Wouldn't be a shock, but I am not sure she's getting a real breather here.
Race Summary	Rusty My Brother has some appeal from close range in this short bunch, and I wonder if being just a tiny touch off the splits might be the right place to be in the early going here.

Presque Isle Downs - Race #6

#4 Out of Stock	He's back off the bench today for the first local try, and I think he could be sitting on something better after the form soured quickly at Penn last winter. He ran a good one at first asking and took two big steps back off that before heading for a break, and he didn't come back to the tab until July -- I bet there might be a lot of built-in excuses for the dull runs.
#5 Harbor Moon	He has shown some spying route pace, so he might be able to just keep in touch in the early stages here today while cutting back to a sprint trip for the first time. Not sure he has a ton of upside at this point in time, but he has faced some better groups than he's going to find here and might be ready to fire fresh off the January break.
#1 Happyisashappydoes	All those words above and this guy probably wins this at $5. His debut here last month was pretty solid -- good tactical pace, kicked home well enough while lacking a little professionalism -- and there might be some upside today. Could see him getting a maybe tricky trip from the inside?
Race Summary	There might be some reasons to give Out of Stock a look while coming back from the layoff, as his debut run was good enough to think he can play with this group, and maybe he started heading the wrong way right after that first start.

Presque Isle Downs - Race #8

#1 Leave 'Em Loaded	He's not exactly an early burner, but he is fast enough to maybe find the front from the fence in a race with only a couple other potential forward players. He's in good form and gets a cozy first-jump trip if he doesn't find the lead.
#5 Patriot Drive	He has been inching closer as he slides down the class ladder and probably has a big claim on this while taking another drop today. He's the clear one to beat while trying this level for the first time.
#3 Spettacoli	He can be a little one-paced in some of his races, but he might find himself in a pretty nice spot spying the speed today and could plug along for a big piece of this.
Race Summary	Leave 'Em Loaded is fast enough to find a good spot right up near the top, and he can also press and pounce if one of the other potential speed types has a run for it from further outside.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-11-2023, 05:13 AM

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Thistledown - Race #1

#5 HIGHLY EXPLOSIVE (9-2)	Overpowered rivals in repeat win that could play out the same way today.
#6 OUT MY DEAR (6-1)	Romped in same spot in seasonal debut, made moves in follow-up allowances.
#1 LEXY ANNA (2-1)	Blew commanding lead in latest, starts from rail on cutback in distance.
Race Summary	HIGHLY EXPLOSIVE advanced ‘rapidly’ on the turn and won going away in a split race that timed 1/5 slower. She should sit an ideal stalking on the class rise for her new connections. Let’s make her today’s Best Bet with a win and place wager.

Thistledown - Race #3

#4 CANDY CRUSHEM (5-1)	Improved in second try off 8-month layoff, proven at distance and at track.
#7 GILES (5-2)	Plays to a steady beat, gets a break in conditions, looks good on paper.
#1 OWN THE TOWN (2-1)	Got up to finish third in last two starts at this level as the favorite.
Race Summary	CANDY CRUSHEM starts fresh off the claim, owns a 3-for-8 record at Thistledown and is a six-figure earner at one mile. He changes riders for his third start as a 7-year-old and should factor with a move forward off his latest try. Bet to win and place and play 4/1,7/ALL trifecta.

Thistledown - Race #4

#1 LEFTLANEOUTLAW (5-1)	Stepped it up a notch in final prep, barn is on a good run the last month.
#3 FAVORABLE RETURN (2-1)	Got past the favorite but out-kicked by 20-1 winner at Horseshoe Indy.
#2 MOTOWN COLLECTION (6-1)	Took money, ‘battled’ until stretch fade, tries blinkers again.
Race Summary	LEFTLANEOUTLAW debuts for a hot barn off a 1:00-4/5 gate workout over the track. His dam ran second in a $35k maiden claimer first out. Don’t like the post but like the 5-1 price for a win and place bet.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-11-2023, 05:13 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Will Rogers Downs

PURCHASE

Will Rogers Downs - Race 9	$2 Exacta / (.50) Trifecta / (.10) Superfecta / $2 Daily Double (.50) Pick 3 (Races 9-10-11) / (.50)
Trial • 350 Yards • Dirt • Age 2 • CR: 82 • Purse: $5,000 • Post: 3:20P
QUARTER HORSE 350Y, FOR OKLAHOMA-BRED TWO-YEAR-OLDS WHICH WERE NOMINATED AND REMAIN ELIGIBLE FOR THESE TRIALS. WEIGHT, 124 LBS. FINALISTS MUST PROVIDE AN ADDITIONAL NEGATIVE HAIR TEST PRIOR TO ENTERING IN THE FINAL.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * MYSTIC PAINT: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. SILVER DAKOTA MOON: Quarter horse has the highest l ast race Equibase Speed Rating. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. COUNTESS TRES SEIS: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. GRAND GOING TEMPLAR: Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Jockey/Trainer combination return on investment is at least +20.
9	MYSTIC PAINT	4/1	9/2
5	SILVER DAKOTA MOON	2/1	6/1
4	COUNTESS TRES SEIS	5/2	7/1
2	GRAND GOING TEMPLAR	6/1	8/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	FDD EASY BILLION	1	12/1	Average	76	65	0.0	0.0	0.0
2	GRAND GOING TEMPLAR	2	6/1	Average	78	66	4.4	0.0	0.0
3	BP TRES CARTEL	3	20/1	Slow	0	0	0.0	0.0	0.0
4	COUNTESS TRES SEIS	4	5/2	Average	73	73	4.7	0.0	0.0
5	SILVER DAKOTA MOON	5	2/1	Average	69	77	5.0	0.0	0.0
6	CHARLENAS FDD	6	10/1	Average	73	62	5.8	0.0	0.0
7	MH SPY THE LIGHTS	7	20/1	Slow	0	0	8.2	0.0	0.0
8	MADE HIS JACK	8	20/1	Slow/Trouble-prone	0	0	6.7	0.0	0.0
9	MYSTIC PAINT	9	4/1	Average	81	77	4.7	0.0	0.0

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-11-2023, 05:14 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Prairie MeadowsPURCHASE

Prairie Meadows - Race 6	Win/ Place/ Show/ Quinella / Exacta / Trifecta (.50 Minimum) Superfecta (.10 Minimum) / Daily Double / Pick 3 (.50 Minimum) Pick 4 (.50 Minimum)
Claiming $10,000 • 5 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 72 • Purse: $19,263 • Post: 6:06P
FOR REGISTERED STATE BRED THREE YEAR OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES OR WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE SINCE SEPTEMBER 11, 2022. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JUNE 11, 2023 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $10,000 (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $7,500 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ALLOWANCES).

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Fast-paced Race. There are many horses that could vie for the early lead. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners. * KEY ANGLES * SHIP BOSS: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. I LOVE ROCKNSTROLL: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. SHUT UP MAN: Horse has run a Good Race with in the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. IT'S ALL ABOUT JOE: Today is a sprint and the horse's last start was within the last ten days. Horse's average winning distance is within half a furlong of today's dist ance (within 50 yards if a Quarter Horse race).
3	SHIP BOSS	3/1	9/2
1	I LOVE ROCKNSTROLL	2/1	6/1
6	SHUT UP MAN	4/1	7/1
5	IT'S ALL ABOUT JOE	6/1	10/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
2	FRANKLY EPIC	2	7/2	Front-runner	67	66	72.4	53.6	44.6
4	MY BOAZ	4	8/1	Front-runner	68	63	67.4	54.0	45.0
3	SHIP BOSS	3	3/1	Front-runner	85	74	64.0	61.2	57.2
6	SHUT UP MAN	6	4/1	Alternator/Front-runner	74	68	68.2	64.8	58.8
1	I LOVE ROCKNSTROLL	1	2/1	Alternator/Stalker	68	70	42.0	62.2	57.7
5	IT'S ALL ABOUT JOE	5	6/1	Alternator/Stalker	71	68	36.0	59.0	49.5

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-11-2023, 05:14 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Parx Racing - Race #10 - Post: 4:53pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $18,000 Class Rating: 77

Rating:

#1 MANOLETE (ML=9/2)
#7 THERISASTORMBREWIN (ML=6/1)

MANOLETE - A win percentage like 33 is fantastic for any rider/trainer pair. THERISASTORMBREWIN - Good return on investment for this jockey and conditioner twosome. Diaz has an 'uncoupled' entry here. Best to beware of the longer priced half. A horse coming back this rapidly after a strong outing is a good signal. This entrant wins a lot of cash per start. I believe he will boost that total in this field.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 R GOODTIME CHARLIE (ML=7/2), #11 ROCKIN COWBOY (ML=4/1), #10 HIBACHI (ML=5/1),

R GOODTIME CHARLIE - This morning-line choice may be out of form without any recent workouts. Tough to put your money on this oft beaten public's choice. Not much value. ROCKIN COWBOY - Today's race is 6 furlongs. Hasn't finished in the money in a short distance affair in the last 60 days. Not the greatest of indicators. HIBACHI - Speed ratings tell a tale of decreasing form.

GUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - MANOLETE - I'm making a wager on this one today. Easier company is going to make a big difference. Will be competitive today.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Put your money on #1 MANOLETE on the nose if you can get odds of 7/5 or more
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [1,7]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-11-2023, 05:14 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Thistledown

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 8 - Allowance - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $38400 Class Rating: 81

FOR REGISTERED OHIO FOALS THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, OPTIONAL, OR STARTER OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE AUGUST 11 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE JULY 11 ALLOWED 4 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 3 JEBIP 3/1
# 5 WILDCAT EXPRESS 9/5
# 2 TURNING PAGES 5/1

I've got to go with JEBIP. Shows signs of the look of a money-making play, averaging a solid 71 Equibase speed fig which is one of the strongest in this group. Recorded a very strong speed figure last time out. Is tough not to examine given the company run in recently. WILDCAT EXPRESS - This gelding has been consistently racing well in his latest outings. Can't overlook the connections here, a 15 winning percentage, one of the most respectable at getting into the winner's circle. TURNING PAGES - Could provide positive profits based on decent recent speed figs with an average of 68. With Severino in the saddle guiding him, this gelding will most likely be able to break out early in this event.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-11-2023, 05:15 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Assiniboia Downs

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 6 - Claiming - 7.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $14800 Class Rating: 89

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JUNE 11, 2023 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $7,500.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 6 IN THE DEEP 4/1
# 8 TOTALIZER 5/1
# 5 WARRIOR'S MAP 8/5

IN THE DEEP is my choice. Must be given a shot here on the basis of the figs in the speed realm alone. Should be considered - I like the figs from the last contest. Win percentage one of the strongest in this group. TOTALIZER - Is a key contender - given the 89 Equibase Speed Fig from his most recent race. Has performed quite well recently in sprint races, posting a nifty 77 avg Equibase Speed Figure. WARRIOR'S MAP - With a nice class fig average of 94, has one of the best class advantages in this field. Has been moving soundly and has among the best speed in the race for today's distance.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-11-2023, 05:15 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Presque Isle Downs - Race #2 - Post: 3:27pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $13,000 Class Rating: 79

Rating:

#2 PROPER MANNERS (ML=9/5)

PROPER MANNERS - Have to give this mare a chance. Ran a nice effort last time out within the last 30 days. The last speed rating of 64 is the highest last race figure in the field.

Vulnerable Contenders: #5 SONG OF INDY (ML=5/2), #6 MONGOLIAN MISSION (ML=7/2), #3 DIANNA'S JET (ML=6/1),

SONG OF INDY - Could be tough for this entrant to beat this group off of that last rating. Not probable to improve enough to run a figure close enough to today's class figure, so put her on the questionable challengers list. MONGOLIAN MISSION - When scrutinizing today's Equibase class figure, she will have to notch a much better speed fig than last race out to be competitive in this dirt sprint. DIANNA'S JET - Would have to get better off that eighth place finish last time out to make an impact here.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#2 PROPER MANNERS to win at post-time odds of 1/1 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	Pass
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Skip
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip