3-7-09

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  • Mr. IWS
    215 Hustler
    • Sep 2006
    • 98648

    3-7-09

    Larry Ness

    Legend Play


    Arizona was a controversial at-large selection last year, getting a bid despite an 8-10 Pac 10 mark and an overall 19-14 mark. With Lute Olson stepping down as the team's head coach before the start of play this season, many thought the Wildcats' run of 23 straight NCAA appearances would end this year. However, the Wildcats ran off seven straight wins from Jan 24 through Feb 14 and at 18-8, Arizona looked like an NCAA 'lock.' That's not the case anymore, as a two-point loss to ASU on Feb 22 began a four-game slide. Arizona enters this game 18-12 overall and just 8-9 in the Pac 10. Tonight's opponent, Stanford, won 28 games last year, making a Sweet 16 appearance. However, the Lopez twins (Brook averaged 19.3-8.3 and Robin 10.2-5.7) were NBA draft picks plus Washington (4.4-4.1) who was a two-year starter and Finger (5.9-4.4) both graduated. Worse yet, head coach Trent Johnson left his "dream" job to "take the money" at LSU. Johnny Dawkins, whose only previous coaching experience had come by sitting next to Coach K at Duke, took over. Dawkins and his team surprised almost everyone by opening 10-0 but that record was the result of a weak schedule and mostly home games. Stanford is just 7-11 since that perfect start, including 6-11 in the pac 10. Goods (15.9) and Johnson (6.9-4.2 APG) are a solid guard duo, while 6-7 swingman Fields (12.7-6.5) has had a nice season. The 6-8 Hill (13.4-6.5) is the team's best inside player with the 6-10 Owens and the 6-11 Paul (4.2) adding depth to the frontcourt. In the backcourt, Green and Brown combine to average just over 10 PPG. The Wildcats pretty much rely on three players, the 6-10 Hill (18.4-11.0), the 6-7 Budinger (17.9-6.5-3.3) and guard Wise (14.6-4.5 APG). The 6-6 Horne (6.7-5.2), freshman guard Fogg (6.3) and sophomore guard Johnson (4.9) are the only other real contributors. Now here's the rub. The Cardinal were on a 2-8 slide when they beat USC at home last Saturday and then just two days ago, shocked No. 21 ASU in Tempe, 74-64. The win was Stanford's FIRST in eight Pac 10 road games this year. This is Arizona's final home game and the Wildcats really need a win. Stanford is the perfect opponent, as the Cardinal beat them in all three meetings last year (including the Pac 10 tourney) but as I mentioned at the top, that team doesn't exist anymore. This year's team was winless on the Pac 10 road until two days ago and the Wildcats catch the Cardinal off that upset of ASU. Also, the extremely talented Budinger is finally playing his final home game for Arizona and few thought he would have stayed around all four years. Expect the Budinger-led Wildcats to "keep the dream alive" (of another NCAA bid) with a convincing win here.



    LEGEND on Arizona
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  • Mr. IWS
    215 Hustler
    • Sep 2006
    • 98648

    #2
    Re: 3-7-09

    Big Al

    10 dimes W.VA
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    • Mr. IWS
      215 Hustler
      • Sep 2006
      • 98648

      #3
      Re: 3-7-09

      Wayne Root

      Chairman- Mississippi St
      Millionaire- West Virginia (Big East GOY)
      MoneyMaker- Wyoming
      No Limit- Washington St
      Billionaire- Virginia
      Perfect Play- Texas A&M
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      • Mr. IWS
        215 Hustler
        • Sep 2006
        • 98648

        #4
        Re: 3-7-09

        DRBOB
        I have 3 Saturday Daytime Basketball Best Bets, a College 3-Star Best Bet and 2 College 2-Star Best Bets


        Saturday Daytime College Opinion
        Siena (-13) over Canisius
        Rotation #664 – 2 pm Pacific
        Siena ended their regular season with a spread loss as an 8 point favorite at Canisius (they won by just 4 points), but the Saints are in a good spot to cover against the Golden Griffins this time around. Siena applies to a rare 28-1-1 ATS conference tournament situation and Canisius applies to a negative 59-124-6 ATS situation. Siena’s two wins over Canisius were by an average of 11 points and my ratings favor the Saints by 12 points – so the line is a bit too high. I’ll lean with the Saints at -13 points and I’ll take Siena in a 2-Star Best Bet at -12 ½ points or less and for 3-Stars at -12 points.
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        • Mr. IWS
          215 Hustler
          • Sep 2006
          • 98648

          #5
          Re: 3-7-09

          Spreizter 25*- UNLV
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          • Mr. IWS
            215 Hustler
            • Sep 2006
            • 98648

            #6
            Re: 3-7-09

            Ben Burns*
            Play Title ***HUGE*** Burns' Underdog GAME OF THE YEAR! (Day)
            Play Selected Point Spread: 4.5/-110
            I'm taking the points with WYOMING. One could certainly argue that this is a bigger game for New Mexico. That's because the Lobos enter the weekend in a 3-way tie for first place in the Mountain West, tied with both BYU and Utah. Naturally, they'd badly like to claim at least a share of the regular season conference title. Meanwhile, Wyoming is already assured of the sixth seed in the MWC tournament. That doesn't mean that this isn't an absolutely huge game for the Cowboys too, though. For starters, they're looking to strengthen their postseason resume. Perhaps more importantly, they've got four seniors, who will be honored before the game, and they're looking to send them out in style. The Lobos won big when these teams met at Albuquerque. That's not all that surprising though. New Mexico has been great at The Pit for years and was a perfect 8-0 there in conference play this season. Playing on the road has been a different story for the Lobos though, as they're just 5-6 in true road games and 5-8 away from Albuquerque overall. Like their guests, the Cowboys have been MUCH better at home. Despite losing vs. BYU last time out, the Cowboys have been terrific here overall. They're 13-2 in home games overall, including 8-2 SU and 7-3 ATS in home lined games and 1-0 SU/ATS as a home underdog in the +3.5 to +6 range. Looking back a bit further and we find Wyoming at a profitable 21-11 ATS its last 32 home lined games. Its also worth noting that the Cowboys have won 10 of the last 11 meetings vs. the Lobos, here in Laramie. As Wyoming coach Heath Schroyer had to say: "...New Mexico is playing as well as anyone in the league, but they will have to come to our place..." Senior Brandon Ewing is one of the best players to ever play here at Wyoming. Indeed, he's the second leading scorer and assist man in school history, while also starting the most career games. Playing his last game at Arena-Auditorium, look for him to lead by example as the Cowboys bounce back with a massive effort and improve to 6-2 ATS when coming off a conference loss. *Underdog GOY
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            • Mr. IWS
              215 Hustler
              • Sep 2006
              • 98648

              #7
              Re: 3-7-09

              Dr Bob

              3 Daytime Best Bets.
              Rotation #529 St. Joseph's (-12 1/2) 2-Stars at -13 or less.
              Rotation #546 Iowa (-2 1/2) 3-Stars at -3 or less, 2-Stars up to -4.
              Rotation #654 Davidson (-15 1/2) 2-Stars at -16 or less
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              • Mr. IWS
                215 Hustler
                • Sep 2006
                • 98648

                #8
                Re: 3-7-09

                LANG

                30 Dime Maryland

                10 Dime Tulane

                5 Dime Citadel

                5 Dime Texas A&M

                5 Dime Auburn
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                • Mr. IWS
                  215 Hustler
                  • Sep 2006
                  • 98648

                  #9
                  Re: 3-7-09

                  SCOTT SPREITZER

                  Mia Fl
                  Iowa St
                  Miss

                  Cleve Cavs
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                  • Mr. IWS
                    215 Hustler
                    • Sep 2006
                    • 98648

                    #10
                    Re: 3-7-09

                    DRBOB, has 3 other best bets as well as these.


                    Saturday Night College Opinions
                    RICHMOND (+6) over Xavier
                    Rotation #590 – 4 pm Pacific
                    Richmond applies to a 78-34-3 ATS last home game situation that is 26-4-1 ATS when applying to underdogs of 3 points or more. The Spiders are 20-6 ATS as an underdog of 3 points or more the last two seasons (9-2 ATS this season), including 7-0 ATS at home. Unfortunately, my ratings favor Xavier by 7 points in this game, so I’ll just lean with the Spiders at +6 or +6 ½ points and I’d take Richmond in a 2-Star Best Bet at +7 or more.

                    Niagara (-13) over Marist
                    Rotation #666 – 4:30 pm Pacific
                    Niagara had a tough time with Marist this season, losing by 18 points on the road and winning by just 10 points as an 18 point home favorite last weekend. However, those games should give coach Joe Mihalich some ammunition to get his team focused and the Purple Eagles apply to a solid 57-20-2 ATS conference tournament big favorite situation. My ratings favor Niagara by 13 points, so the line is fair, but I’ll just lean with the Purple Eagles at -13 points and I’d take Niagara in a 2-Star Best Bet at -12 ½ points or less.

                    Rider (-5 ½) over St. Peter’s
                    Rotation #668 – 7 pm Pacific
                    Rider and St. Peter’s split their two games this season with Rider winning by 11 points on a neutral floor and St. Pete’s winning by 1 point at Rider. For Rider to out-score the Peacocks by a total of 10 points overall is impressive given that St. Pete’s made a ridiculous 17 of 30 3-point shots in those two games (compared to 17 of 44 for Rider). Three-point shooting percentages are highly variable from game to game, so it was mostly just good fortune that the Peacocks made 57% of their 3-pointers against Rider. My math model projects each team to make 37% from long range when pitted against each other and if each team shot their expected percentages from 3-point range and from the free-throw line then Rider would have won those games by a combined 23 points rather than 10 points. While Rider seems to match-up pretty well with St. Peter’s, and the Broncs apply to a very good 141-44-5 ATS conference tournament situation, I am going to pass on this game as a Best Bet because of the lack of line value. The line opened at 4 ½ points and my ratings favor Rider by 4.8 points, but the line has climbed to 5 ½ and 6 points and I’m not willing to give up the line value to make this game a Best Bet. I’ll lean with the Broncos at -6 or -5 ½ points and I’ll take Rider in a 2-Star Best Bet at -5 points or less.
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