Service Plays Thursday 9/7/23

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bob Balfe:

MLB
6:40 PM EST
Rotation #902
Marlins -105 over Dodgers
Garrett/Pepiot
Miami has been hitting the ball well as of late, and shockingly, the Dodgers, the 6th highest payroll in baseball, have been below average against left-handers this season. Dodger pitcher Ryan Pepiot has looked sharp in his limited action but can be wild sometimes, allowing key walks. Miami pitcher Braxton Garrett doesn’t walk a lot of batters and has been pitching well this year. Take the Marlins.

[ConleyPicks]

WinWithWeiss

Anytime TD Scorer
Isiah Pacheco-105

SG Parlay +178
Jarred Goff 225+ Pass Yards
Isiah Pacheco 40+ Rush Yards
Jaymyr Gibbs 25+ Rush Yards

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tom Stryker

10-2 ATS NFL THURSDAY NIGHT BEST BET

KC Chiefs

[Can'tPickAWinner]

The Insider

KC -4.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

LV LOCKLINE
TOP
CUBS ASSAD RISK 160

[ConleyPicks]

WinWithWeiss

Anytime TD Scorer
Isiah Pacheco-105

SG Parlay +178
Jarred Goff 225+ Pass Yards
Isiah Pacheco 40+ Rush Yards
Jaymyr Gibbs 25+ Rush Yards

2 more

SG Parlay +632
Isiah Pacheco 60+ Rush Yards
Isiah Pacheco Anytime TD Scorer
Amon-Ra St. Brown Anytime TD Scorer

SG Parlay +3785
Jahmyr Gibbs Anytime TD Scorer
Jerick McKinnon Anytime TD Scorer
Patrick Mahomes Anytime TD Scorer

[ConleyPicks]

SmartMoneySports

Kansas City Chiefs-5 -110 (3u 7:15e)
Kansas City Team Total Over 30 -115 (1u 7:15e)

[ConleyPicks]

Midwestmikesports

7U PLAY OF THE DAY

$8.4K on KANSAS CITY-4 -120 (Buy Pt +0.5)
To win $7k

[Joe$$Moneyline]

Northcoast anyone?

[Mustwin2day]

Does anyone see Brandon Lang

[Mustwin2day]

Brandon Lang has a 75 dime selection on KC/Det. Thank you

[pm5959]

Northcoast

Marquee
Det/KC OVER

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Calling Our Shots

Thursday's MLB Picks for September 7th


Let’s go 3-0 in the MLB today.
The Picks:
1u - Adam Wainwright OVER 3.5 Earned Runs (-115, DraftKings)
1u - Mookie Betts (LAD) & Austin Riley (ATL) Each to Record a Hit Parlay (-109, Bet365)
1u - Diamondbacks/Cubs UNDER 8.5 (-105, BetMGM)
~~~~~

NFL Picks

Lions-Chiefs Best Bets: Player Prop, Spread Pick & Underdog Fantasy Entry

CallingOurShot
Hello all! The NFL is BACK! Excited to have a great season with you all aboard.

Since starting the Calling Our Shot Channel, here have been our NFL Season Results:
2021-2022: +43.12 Units
2022-2023: +24.43 Units

We had some rough breaks last year but still finished up a respectable amount. Let’s lock in and dominate this season. On Friday, I will have posted my favorite Spread Picks for Sunday. Then on Saturday, I will post my favorite player props for Sunday. I’ll try to get those plays out around 12PM ET on their respective days.

Let’s get this season started with my Lions-Chiefs Card:

1u: David Montgomery (DET) OVER 64.5 Rushing+Receiving Yards (-114, FanDuel)

Playable up to 72.5
A decent sized line discrepancy here on FanDuel, but I am confident Montgomery gets 80+ yards to cash all of these.
If you are unable to take both rushing+receiving, I prefer rushing yards.
Here are his other lines:
Rushing Yards: 53.5 (-110)
Receiving Yards: 12.5 (-110)
Rush Attempts: 12.5 (-135)
Receptions: 1.5 (-200)
While everyone is excited for Jahymr Gibbs (as I am too), he is still a rookie making his 1st ever start in the NFL. I expect Montgomery to handle a bulk of the workload behind a very good offensive lines.
Over the last 2 seasons, Montgomery has 10+ rush attempts & 1+ reception in 23 games. In those games, he’s OVER 63.5 Rush+Rec Yards in 20 of 23 games.
Clearly, I can’t definitely say that Montgomery gets either 10 rushing attempts or 1 reception, but the sportsbooks clearly expect that workload.
With the Lions limited on playmakers and now relying on Gibbs & LaPorta (a TE), 2 rookies, I expect them to lean on the run early in this game.
According to Pro Football Focus, the Lions Offense Line currently ranks 5th best in the NFL, which would be the best Montgomery has ever played behind.
A lot of people want to go out and back Gibbs Week 1, and while I hope he does well, I will trust the veteran, Montgomery, to handle the load.
He’s a talented pass catcher, and I expect him to see a little more work in that area than Jamaal Williams did last year.
I wouldn’t be surprised if there are several occasions where Gibbs and Montgomery are on the field at the same time and we see them fake a screen to Gibbs and get it to Montgomery.
I expect the Chiefs to have a bigger gameplan to try to slow down Amon-Ra & likely Gibbs.
Let’s roll with David Montgomery, who looks to win over some Lions fans in his 1st game with the team after replacing Jamaal Williams, a fan favorite.

1u: Chiefs-4.5 (-110, BetMGM)

I was between this or the Chiefs to win by 1-13 points which is +110 on FanDuel (I’ll take those plays throughout the season).
However, on Opening Night, I will roll with the reigning Super Bowl Champs.
Will Travis Kelce play? Will Chris Jones play? Who knows. While I would love those guys out there, that is why we are getting a discount from where this line was at +6.5 just a few days ago.
People have high hopes for the Lions this season, and rightfully so after how big of a surprise they were last season.
In Week 1’s with Patrick Mahomes, the Chiefs have won by 23, 4, 14, 14 & 10 points.
Lions backers will point to last year and say ‘we only lost by 3 in Week 1 to the Eagles’. While that is true, they were down 17 going into the 4th and had two TDs to get that one close.
I am just a believer in the Chiefs Defense to step up. Everyone is putting them out for dead without Chris Jones. Steve Spagnulo (Chiefs DC) will get the guys ready to play.
I rather back the Chiefs, at home, in Arrowhead, with the crowd playing a factor for Goff and the Lions Offense. I also am not sold on this Lions defense either, which wasn’t great last year.
I feel like with the Kelce News coming on Tuesday, people were quick to jump all aboard Lions on the spread and ML. On Thursday, the better team should take care of business and get the job done.
Give me the Chiefs-4.5.

Let’s move to Underdog Fantasy, who has a Free Square for Thursday’s Game: Patrick Mahomes OVER 0.5 Passing Yards.

I’m pretty confident Mahomes will throw for 1+ yards lol.
If you sign up for Underdog Fantasy using code ‘COS’, you will get a 100% Deposit Match up to $100!
Underdog is available in a TON of states in the US!

Link to Underdog: https://play.underdogfantasy.com/p-calling-our-shot

Here’s how I am using it.

5 Legs: $10 to win $200
Isaiah Pacheco HIGHER 50.5 Rushing Yards
Patrick Mahomes HIGHER 0.5 Total Yards
David Montgomery HIGHER 69.5 Rush+Rec Yards
Amon-Ra St. Brown HIGHER 75.5 Receiving Yards
Sam LaPorta LOWER 3 Receptions

That’ll do it. Let’s have a great start to the NFL Season! Looking forward to making a lot of money with you all!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Fezzik

NFL
2* Lions +7 (-10)

MLB
2* Grand Salami: HOME TEAMS (-60)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Rob vincilletti

Lions vs. Chiefs O 53.5