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Jeremy Plonk: Kentucky Downs Today | Wednesday, September 13, 202

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September 12, 2023 | By Jeremy Plonk
First Post:

1:30 pm ET; final day of 2023 meeting

Extra Juice:

$10 Money-Back Special on all races. Up to $10 back if your win bet finishes 2nd, 3rd when you play with Xpressbet or 1/ST BET

Where Do We Stand:

Sunday’s lone best bet to make the gate was a winner, Seisai (paying $16.42 in Race 5). That makes us 14: 3-1-4 on the meeting with $35.46 in $2 win returns and an overall profit of nearly 27%. With five money-back special refunds if you’re playing with Xpressbet or 1/ST BET, the plays are 3-for-9 for the same $35.46 back, nearly doubling the bankroll needed to make each play at the meet. No matter what happens today, we wind up with a flat-bet profit. Let’s add on.

Featured Races:

Race 8 – $500,000 Juvenile Sprint Stakes
Race 9 – $500,000 Untapable Stakes

Betmix Stat of the Day:

From the 66 races at the current Kentucky Downs meeting, maidens have produced an average winner of 5.73-1, allowance races 6.99-1 and stakes 9.61-1. Trainer Rusty Arnold has the only barn to win multiple races with horses 10-1 or more, capturing $46 and $48 longshot scores.

Jeremy’s Best Bets:

Race 1 (1:30 pm ET)

#9 Dr. Ray D. (8-1 ML)

Trainer Mike Maker has run only 3 two-year-old maidens at the meet with Saratoga experience like this one, netting two wins and a third-place finish. He’s won a trio of 2-year-old maiden special weights at the meet from 9 starters overall, best of any barn. Love the sprint-route-sprint form cycle, bringing added stamina, and there’s a bullet workout since leaving the Spa. On this same front, don’t sleep on #10 Sherriff Joe in Race 2 for a potential Maker daily double.

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Race 5 (3:41 pm ET)

#7 Pray for Champagne (15-1 ML)
Mentioned above that Rusty Arnold has had a longshot hook this meet on a few occasions, and don’t be surprised if this disappointing debut beaten favorite doesn’t wake up immediately in start two. Few trainers in America are more proficient at improving from the first to second start as Arnold. He’s 22% second-time out since the start of 2021 with a $1.62 ROI for every $1 bet. Compare that with just 6.7% and $0.98 ROI with first-time starters during the same span.

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Race 10 (6:28 pm ET)

#12 Agent (20-1 ML)
Longshot look in the meet send-off is filly by Astern, a sire with limited starters at Kentucky Downs but some notable success. There’s a $21 winner, a runner-up and a 12-1 show runner from just 7 starters to date, while trainer Paulo Lobo has won with 3 of his last 4 older maidens to start at Kentucky Downs in 2022-’23. This one’s first two starts are competitive vs. these if she can get back to them.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

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Kentucky Downs - Race #1

#7 Movin' On Up	She won't be any secret for a barn that has come alive and stayed that way for quite some time, and any reasonable second-out upside would make her tough.
#4 Ocean Mermaid	Can't rule out 2-year-olds from this barn, and she might relax just a touch better this time around while removing the blinkers. Think she has probably run into a couple decent players so far. Obvious chance.
#11 Asternia	She couldn't hang in the final yards in the debut, but I think she's got the right kind of pace to find a really good spot tracking the splits here, and she might have a midrange price chance if she handles the turf.
Race Summary	Movin' On Up can be tough here with some obvious room to improve, and she should be able to find a nice spying spot while adding a little ground today.

Kentucky Downs - Race #8

#9 Bledsoe	He was a popular winner at 78 cents on the dollar in April at Keeneland, and he's likely to be a prominent pace player in this spot. Guessing he'll be primed to do.
#3 Vote No	He should be a price off a modest enough Presque Isle debut win, but he might like the surface switch here and can probably find a first-over run. Price should be right to see if he has any business with this kind.
#5 Good Lord Lorrie	Show horse in his Saratoga debut score was slated to run in the opener, so maybe that one will help give an idea how this one fits here. He's likely to get bet off that score, but he looked pretty good in the debut win. Tough call -- capable, but maybe at too short a price.
Race Summary	Bledsoe got bet and posted a win in his Keeneland debut -- a familiar sight with runners out of the Ward barn -- and he probably has some upside on the move to the turf today in this second start.

Kentucky Downs - Race #9

#10 Buttercream Babe	She's back pretty quickly off the Aug. 31 debut win here, but I liked her score that day and think it might set her up for a chance to land this on the rise right back. Hoping she can relax just a bit to press this pace.
#7 Song of Norway	She showed pace and drew off easily in the debut run at Ellis, and she looked like a pretty typical Wesley Ward youngster when winning that day. Think she makes as much sense as any in here.
#4 Honey Dijon	She moved up really nicely in that second start, and she should be right up on the splits while trying turf for the first time. Wouldn't be shocked if she liked it here.
Race Summary	Buttercream Babe is already a local winner, and she's back to face winners with what I'm hoping is some prompting pace from her outside draw. Think #6 Hidden Class is another with a big claim on this, but probably at a shorter kind of number.

Presque Isle Downs - Race #3

#6 Reactive	I like that she has worked nine furlongs since that last start, as she has made small moves but been unable to sustain them longterm in her two starts so far. Still, that last one was a move forward, and more improvement today might keep her in the frame as maybe the second or third choice.
#2 Treasured Gem	She has come up short at unappealing prices in her last two, but she still makes a lot of sense on paper with some pace that likely puts her on the lead into the far turn. The one to beat.
#3 Idle Chatter	Her form has been hit or miss so far, but her better stuff has come when racing from off the pace, and I wonder if she's going to get the kind of setup to loop past these -- she hasn't run a good one yet when spying the pace. Tough call.
Race Summary	Reactive probably still has some upside with those two starts to her name, and I think she's going to get the right kind of trip tracking Treasured Gem in the early going. Would want every bit of the 4/1 ML price, if not more.

Presque Isle Downs - Race #4

#6 Mcsteamy	Think that Delaware turf run last out was a bit better than first glance, and he has been a pretty honest runner over the local course in the past. His three-back run here came off a nearly two-year break, so I think it's fair to imagine he might offer better today with a few starts under his belt.
#2 Willie Wando	Wondering whether he can move up a bit after that two-turn run last out, and he finished with a bit of energy that day after some hit or miss sprint tries. He doesn't always hold form, so demand a fair price.
#1 Colonel Poppy	His form is a little difficult to decipher at points, as he has done a little bit of everything style-wise on his page. Guessing he'll wind up in a tracking spot along the fence, and that probably keeps him in the mix here.
Race Summary	#3 T Rex is listed at 9/5 on the morning line after a romping score on the Penn turf against starter company, but his local form is a little spotty and leaves me a bit underwhelmed on class, too. Mcsteamy could be sitting on something better today now that he's gotten his legs back underneath him.

Presque Isle Downs - Race #7

#8 Shakin It Up Larry	He's got some proving to do on class, but he's rising at the right time after a couple sharp efforts, and I think he's going to get a pretty favorable race shape to flash his speed while meeting mostly cutback pace.
#5 Get Even	He's got some lines on his page that are fast enough to keep him in the picture early even while turning back, but I think the top choice is going to be a thorn in his side the entire way if he has a go for it.
#4 Youmustbea Weasley	He owns some sprint tries on his page that make him appealing enough while turning back, and he might offer a pretty playable number with form that maybe isn't as imposing as some times last year.
Race Summary	Shakin It Up Larry has some pace appeal while stepping up in class, and this might be the right kind of crew for him to be competitive at this level.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Horseshoe Indianapolis

PURCHASE

Horseshoe Indianapolis - Race 11	Exacta / Trifecta / 50 Cent Trifecta / Superfecta / 10 Cent Superfecta 10 Cent QH Only Grand High 5 (Pentafecta - Separate Carryover)
Allowance • 330 Yards • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 72 • Purse: $18,500 • Post: 7:40P
QUARTER HORSE 330Y, FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 126 LBS.; OLDER, 128 LBS.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * CV APOLLITICAL CHICK: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. MAJESTIC COCKTAIL: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surfa ce. THE POLITICAL SIGN: Quarter horse has the highest last race Equibase Speed Rating. HABITS LIL TELLER: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. CC SWEET THING: Quarter Horse has a Fast Break Style designation and no horse in a post position next to it gets out of the gate fast. SEPARATE INCIDENT: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
7	CV APOLLITICAL CHICK	3/1	7/1
12	MAJESTIC COCKTAIL	20/1	7/1
6	THE POLITICAL SIGN	7/2	8/1
13	HABITS LIL TELLER	6/1	10/1
5	CC SWEET THING	10/1	10/1
11	SEPARATE INCIDENT	15/1	10/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	FURRST HANKA	1	15/1	Average	77	70	5.4	0.0	0.0
2	JUST A BLUE PEANUT	2	20/1	Slow	76	66	6.4	0.0	0.0
3	TRES OF GLORY	3	30/1	Slow	64	62	6.5	0.0	0.0
4	VEGAS MODELO	4	15/1	Average	74	52	4.3	0.0	0.0
5	CC SWEET THING	5	10/1	Fast	70	68	2.5	0.0	0.0
6	THE POLITICAL SIGN	6	7/2	Average	77	69	4.3	0.0	0.0
7	CV APOLLITICAL CHICK	7	3/1	Average	76	72	3.9	0.0	0.0
8	WANNA BE A RUNAWAY	8	5/1	Fast	71	69	3.3	0.0	0.0
9	THE FIRST DYNASTY	9	9/2	Average	73	70	5.5	0.0	0.0
10	EGOIST	10	10/1	Slow	74	66	6.7	0.0	0.0
11	SEPARATE INCIDENT	11	15/1	Average	75	68	4.1	0.0	0.0
12	MAJESTIC COCKTAIL	12	20/1	Average	82	71	3.9	0.0	0.0
13	HABITS LIL TELLER	13	6/1	Slow	79	69	6.8	0.0	0.0

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Belterra ParkPURCHASE

Belterra Park - Race 2	Exacta / 50 cent Trifecta / 10 cent Superfecta / 50 cent Pick 3 (Races 2-3-4) 50 cent Pick 4 (Races 2-3-4-5)
Maiden Claiming $12,500 • 6 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3-6 • CR: 37 • Purse: $16,900 • Post: 12:35
FOR REGISTERED OHIO BRED MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE, FOUR, FIVE, AND SIX YEARS OLD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $12,500.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Lone Stalker. SUPER SCAMP is the Lone Stalker of the race. * KEY ANGLES * SISSY'S MAY: Today is a sprint and the horse's last start was within the last ten days. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. TWILIGHT BEAUTY: Hors e has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. SHEZ IN A TIZZY: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. SUPER SCAM P: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Jockey/Trainer combination return on investment is at least +20.
4	SISSY'S MAY	5/2	9/2
1	TWILIGHT BEAUTY	7/2	5/1
5	SHEZ IN A TIZZY	4/1	7/1
2	SUPER SCAMP	9/2	9/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	TWILIGHT BEAUTY	1	7/2	Front-runner	33	27	57.2	21.1	17.6
5	SHEZ IN A TIZZY	5	4/1	Front-runner	33	23	55.3	22.1	16.1
2	SUPER SCAMP	2	9/2	Alternator/Stalker	0	0	44.6	25.6	17.6
4	SISSY'S MAY	4	5/2	Trailer	38	22	8.6	30.0	25.5
6	APPALACHIAN SPIRIT	6	6/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	60.5	13.9	4.4
3	MYSTIC ANN	3	10/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	12.3	2.8	0.0

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Finger Lakes

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 1 - Maiden Claiming - 5.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $12600 Class Rating: 62

FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 4 IT'S NOT MY FAULT 7/2
# 1 BANKINGONACHANCE 1/2
# 2 GREEK EASTER 12/1

IT'S NOT MY FAULT is my choice. Will probably go to the lead and should never look back. The average Equibase class figure of 24 makes this one hard to beat. He has a good opportunity for this event as trainer, Englehart, has strong win rate with horses going this distance. BANKINGONACHANCE - Demonstrates the look of a money-making play, averaging a solid 64 speed fig which is one of the most competitive in this field. Could beat this group of animals given the 62 speed figure recorded in his last outing. GREEK EASTER - This gelding must be given a chance just off the earnings per start in dirt sprint contests alone.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Kentucky Downs - Race #5 - Post: 2:41pm - Maiden Special - 8.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $150,000 Class Rating: 76

Rating:

#6 SISTINA CHAPEL (ML=5/2)
#10 SHOW OFF (ML=10/1)


SISTINA CHAPEL - Jock hops right back atop after getting to know the race horse by riding last out. That's always a green light. I expect a lot from this mount. Her speed figures under similar conditions are tops in this bunch. This filly is in nice condition. Ended up second on Aug 18th. Another way to identify class is earnings per race. This mount has the uppermost in the bunch. I think she'll be close at the finish. SHOW OFF - When Cox gives Corrales a leg up on any steed, you sense that with their winning percentage you have more than a fighting chance. This conditioner (Cox) has a great win percentage with first time starters. This trainer brings horses to the turf fit and ready to go, winning over 20 pct of the time under similar conditions.

Vulnerable Contenders: #12 BUSINESS AS USUAL (ML=9/2), #3 CHRISTINABARCELONA (ML=6/1), #4 FLORIBUNDA (ML=8/1),

BUSINESS AS USUAL - Not the right 'fit' in this event. CHRISTINABARCELONA - 6/1 is too short of a price to take on this entrant. FLORIBUNDA - 8/1 is too short of a price to take on this thoroughbred.

GUEST COMMENTARY: The Turf Man - SISTINA CHAPEL - You got to like this horse against this competition. She has the top turf number off her last race.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#6 SISTINA CHAPEL to win at post-time odds of 2/1 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [6,10]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	None
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Remington Park

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 3 - Claiming - 7.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $17000 Class Rating: 86

FOR ACCREDITED OKLAHOMA-BREDS THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE AUGUST 13 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE JULY 13 ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $10,000

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 8 OUR CORNERSTONE 9/2
# 6 SWEET BAKER 5/1
# 2 TAG ME 5/2

OUR CORNERSTONE looks to be a competitive contender. Has to be given a shot based on the respectable speed rating posted in the last race. Over time, this handler has a solid ROI at this distance/surface. SWEET BAKER - Conditioner boasts solid win numbers at this distance and surface. Eramia should be able to get this gelding to break out sharply for this event. TAG ME - Has a solid record at the distance and surface, which makes me give the nod to this gelding. Had one of the top Equibase Speed Figures of this field in his last outing.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Thistledown - Race #6 - Post: 3:20pm - Allowance - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $35,800 Class Rating: 65

Rating:

#6 SURROUNDER (ML=4/1)
#4 MAMAS HOME COOKING (ML=7/2)
#2 GIBBY MY CORN (ML=12/1)


SURROUNDER - Like the way this gelding's finish positions keep getting better. That's a sure sign of improving form. I really like sprinters that make a quick turnaround. Have to make this gelding a serious competitor; he comes off a nice effort on Sep 4th. Widely used angle - 3rd or 4th start after a vacation generally leads to a big effort. Today's the day. A repeat of that most recent performance on September 4th where he notched a speed figure of 65 looks strong enough to prove victorious in this event. MAMAS HOME COOKING - Rosario is right back for another race today after riding on board this animal for the 1st ride on August 2nd and ought to know the ropes to this one a little better. I like when a racer wins after shipping in from elsewhere. It shows that they really like the track here. I'll take this gelding to win again. I like the case that this gelding's last fig, 65, is tops in this field. GIBBY MY CORN - Lower weight carried of -5. In my opinion, a movement of 5 is important, so this gelding falls into this category.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 LITTLE TOY GUNS (ML=9/5), #3 COLOR BEARER (ML=2/1),

LITTLE TOY GUNS - Mediocre rating last time around the track at Thistledown at 6 furlongs. Don't feel this steed will improve too much in today's race. COLOR BEARER - A bit of a lackluster outing when this gelding finished fourth.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Go with #6 SURROUNDER on top if we're getting at least 4/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [2,4,6]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [2,4,6] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	[2,4,6] with [2,4,6] with [2,3,4,5,6] with [2,3,4,5,6] Total Cost: $36

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Horseshoe Indianapolis Tip Sheet - September 13

Sep. 12, 2023


Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 63% of the time at this track.

RACE #1 $25,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING 5 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:30 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	9-5	7	Master of Disguise	G McEntee
PLACE	7-2	8	Nations Dream	R A Prescott
SHOW	8-1	6	Yellow Jacket	F De La Cruz
WILD CARD	4-1	2	Moon Charger	J E Lopez
ALTERNATE 1	10-1	3	Dynamic Devotion	J Elliott
ALTERNATE 2	15-1	4	Mister Ezra	M Burnham
* EXACTA: 7-8 BOX, 8-6 BOX, 6-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 6/7/8 BOX, 2/6/8 BOX
RACE #2 $5,000 CLAIMING 5 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:01 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	7-2	6	Mr Manning	M Franklin
PLACE	9-5	4	Cielo Azul	O Mojica
SHOW	5-1	1	Maters N Taters	R A Prescott
WILD CARD	3-1	3	Black Storm	Y Navas
ALTERNATE 1	8-1	2	Swiss Guard	H Leahey
ALTERNATE 2	10-1	7	Good Sugar	A Burgos
* EXACTA: 6-4 BOX, 4-1 BOX, 1-3 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/4/6 BOX, 1/3/4 BOX
RACE #3 $34,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 1 MILE 70 YARDS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:32 PM ET
BEST BET: #1 EYES OF GOLD
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	9-5	1	Eyes of Gold	A Achard
PLACE	6-1	2	Wicked Beautiful	E E Perez
SHOW	4-1	7	Goldcrest	E Esquivel
WILD CARD	12-1	3	Happy Helen	J Elliott
ALTERNATE 1	7-2	5	Lil Carrie D	C Orm
ALTERNATE 2	5-1	4	Pool Noodle	J D Ramos
* EXACTA: 1-2 BOX, 2-7 BOX, 7-3 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/7 BOX, 2/3/7 BOX
RACE #4 $40,000 CLAIMING 1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 4:03 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-2	2	Little Sister Sue	R Diaz
PLACE	5-1	4	Tall Girl	J D Ramos
SHOW	4-1	1	Kendal Grace	R A Prescott
WILD CARD	9-2	6	Midnight Tango	O Mojica
ALTERNATE 1	3-1	7	Three Coins	E Morales
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	3	Secret Operation	C Hughes
* EXACTA: 2-4 BOX, 4-1 BOX, 1-6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/4 BOX, 1/4/6 BOX
RACE #5 $5,000 CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:34 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	7-2	5	Shooter Justice	H Leahey
PLACE	5-1	8	Fierce Justice	E Esquivel
SHOW	9-2	2	Bold Bizness	O Mojica
WILD CARD	20-1	4	C F V Texas Red	S E Bermudez
ALTERNATE 1	15-1	1	Mikie OPrado	M Burnham
ALTERNATE 2	10-1	3	Gimmefuelgimmefire	M Franklin
* EXACTA: 5-8 BOX, 8-2 BOX, 2-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/5/8 BOX, 2/4/8 BOX
RACE #6 $36,000 ALLOWANCE 5 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 5:05 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	6-1	1	Riparound	E Morales
PLACE	12-1	6	Designated	H Leahey
SHOW	15-1	7	Gigis World	R Aragon
WILD CARD	10-1	2	Fairhopecurly	E Esquivel
ALTERNATE 1	3-1	9	April Clover	J D Ramos
ALTERNATE 2	7-2	5	Shot Girl	A Lezcano
* EXACTA: 1-6 BOX, 6-7 BOX, 7-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/6/7 BOX, 2/6/7 BOX
RACE #7 $100,000 STAKES 1 1/16 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 5:36 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-1	2	Evil Intentions	R A Prescott
PLACE	7-2	8	Hungarian Princess	S E Bermudez
SHOW	9-2	9	Quick and Easy	F De La Cruz
WILD CARD	5-2	7	Diamond Solitaire	J D Ramos
ALTERNATE 1	8-1	6	Botox Katie	E Esquivel
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	5	Compressed Energy	R Diaz
* EXACTA: 2-8 BOX, 8-9 BOX, 9-7 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/8/9 BOX, 7/8/9 BOX
RACE #8 $100,000 STAKES 1 1/16 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 6:07 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	3-1	7	Mr Chaos	O Mojica
PLACE	2-1	6	Cash Logistics	R A Prescott
SHOW	6-1	3	Me and Chili	J D Ramos
WILD CARD	10-1	9	Starspangledxpress	S E Bermudez
ALTERNATE 1	12-1	8	Stop Hammertime	E Esquivel
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	4	Grand in Bay	F De La Cruz
* EXACTA: 7-6 BOX, 6-3 BOX, 3-9 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/6/7 BOX, 3/6/9 BOX
RACE #9 $38,000 ALLOWANCE 1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 6:38 PM ET
BEST BET: #8 PAYNTERS CANVAS
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	6-1	8	Paynters Canvas	E Esquivel
PLACE	8-1	1	Air Marshal	M Burnham
SHOW	8-5	7	Humble Warrior	S E Bermudez
WILD CARD	7-2	3	Silent Sonata	F De La Cruz
ALTERNATE 1	20-1	10	Do Ya Wanna Dance	R Aragon
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	6	Secreto de Amore	E Morales
* EXACTA: 8-1 BOX, 1-7 BOX, 7-3 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/7/8 BOX, 1/3/7 BOX
RACE #10 $19,500 ALLOWANCE 350 YARDS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 7:09 PM ET
BEST BET: #7 MY LIQUID LOVE
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	9-2	7	My Liquid Love	D Villamil Bocanegra
PLACE	7-2	10	Booray	M Munoz
SHOW	6-1	5	El Fulano	E N Esqueda
WILD CARD	8-1	8	Country Maker	J Byrd
ALTERNATE 1	10-1	9	Invited	F Quintero
ALTERNATE 2	4-1	3	Alota Lovin	A Hernandez-Lopez
* EXACTA: 7-10 BOX, 10-5 BOX, 5-8 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 5/7/10 BOX, 5/8/10 BOX
RACE #11 $18,500 ALLOWANCE 330 YARDS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 7:40 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	7-2	6	The Political Sign	M Munoz
PLACE	9-2	9	The First Dynasty	R D Pina
SHOW	3-1	7	Cv Apollitical Chick	E Diaz
WILD CARD	10-1	5	Cc Sweet Thing	H Macias
ALTERNATE 1	5-1	8	Wanna Be a Runaway	S Lopez
ALTERNATE 2	10-1	10	Egoist	F Morin
* EXACTA: 6-9 BOX, 9-7 BOX, 7-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 6/7/9 BOX, 5/7/9 BOX

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Kentucky Downs Tip Sheet - September 13

Sep. 12, 2023


Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 52% of the time at this track.

RACE #1 $150,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 1:30 PM ET
BEST BET: #4 OCEAN MERMAID
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-2	4	Ocean Mermaid	J L Ortiz
PLACE	7-2	7	Movin On Up	T Gaffalione
SHOW	8-1	11	Asternia	M Chuan
WILD CARD	8-1	9	Dr. Ray D.	I Ortiz Jr.
ALTERNATE 1	5-1	10	Star Performance	G Corrales
ALTERNATE 2	10-1	5	Satin Blue	J Rosario
* EXACTA: 4-7 BOX, 7-11 BOX, 11-9 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4/7/11 BOX, 7/9/11 BOX
RACE #2 $150,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 2:02 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	6-1	7	Coastal Brink	K J Asmussen
PLACE	5-1	12	Divine Empire	J Rosario
SHOW	9-2	9	American Decision	D Cannon
WILD CARD	7-2	11	Veracruzin	J R Leparoux
ALTERNATE 1	8-1	8	Tireless	I Ortiz Jr.
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	3	Jacked	F Geroux
* EXACTA: 7-12 BOX, 12-9 BOX, 9-11 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 7/9/12 BOX, 9/11/12 BOX
RACE #3 $50,000 CLAIMING 6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 2:34 PM ET
BEST BET: #1 OUTADORE
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	9-5	1	Outadore	I Ortiz Jr.
PLACE	7-2	2	Tilted Towers	C A Emigh
SHOW	8-1	6	Pure Panic	W A Rodriguez
WILD CARD	10-1	7	Mailman Money	F Arrieta
ALTERNATE 1	6-1	8	Spycraft	T Gaffalione
ALTERNATE 2	20-1	4	Casanova Kitten	G Corrales
* EXACTA: 1-2 BOX, 2-6 BOX, 6-7 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/6 BOX, 2/6/7 BOX
RACE #4 $160,000 ALLOWANCE 6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 3:06 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-1	6	Zambezi	K J Asmussen
PLACE	12-1	2	Mendels Secret	I Ortiz Jr.
SHOW	4-1	7	Implementation	T Gaffalione
WILD CARD	10-1	4	Eddie M	J L Ortiz
ALTERNATE 1	6-1	15	Vocalize	R Santana Jr.
ALTERNATE 2	10-1	11	Zartownis	C A Torres
* EXACTA: 6-2 BOX, 2-7 BOX, 7-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/6/7 BOX, 2/4/7 BOX
RACE #5 $150,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 3:41 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-2	6	Sistina Chapel	B J Hernandez Jr.
PLACE	9-2	12	Business as Usual	I Ortiz Jr.
SHOW	12-1	15	Stephanieswarrior	R Miranda
WILD CARD	8-1	9	Tonalite	M Garcia
ALTERNATE 1	8-1	4	Floribunda	J L Ortiz
ALTERNATE 2	6-1	3	Christinabarcelona	J Rosario
* EXACTA: 6-12 BOX, 12-15 BOX, 15-9 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 6/12/15 BOX, 9/12/15 BOX
RACE #6 $180,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING 1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 4:14 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-1	8	Max K. O.	I Ortiz Jr.
PLACE	7-2	3	Kentucky Ghost	F Geroux
SHOW	3-1	6	Win for the Money	J L Ortiz
WILD CARD	12-1	4	Dominican Pioneer	J R Velazquez
ALTERNATE 1	6-1	10	Big Blue Line	J Rosario
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	2	Fenwick Station	D Cannon
* EXACTA: 8-3 BOX, 3-6 BOX, 6-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/6/8 BOX, 3/4/6 BOX
RACE #7 $160,000 ALLOWANCE 7 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 4:48 PM ET
BEST BET: #14 LAMASCO
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	9-2	14	Lamasco	C A Torres
PLACE	9-5	1	Sahlabiya	T Gaffalione
SHOW	8-1	8	Private Credit	I Ortiz Jr.
WILD CARD	30-1	3	Miss Peabody	M Murrill
ALTERNATE 1	3-1	11	Howboutdemapples	R Gutierrez
ALTERNATE 2	30-1	12	Miss Shipman	J K Court
* EXACTA: 14-1 BOX, 1-8 BOX, 8-3 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/8/14 BOX, 1/3/8 BOX
RACE #8 $500,000 STAKES 6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 5:21 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	2-1	5	Good Lord Lorrie	J L Ortiz
PLACE	5-2	7	Hedwig	J Graham
SHOW	9-2	9	Bledsoe	J Rosario
WILD CARD	6-1	2	Jimmythetooth	T Gaffalione
ALTERNATE 1	15-1	8	Darkroom	D Cannon
ALTERNATE 2	20-1	3	Vote No	G Corrales
* EXACTA: 5-7 BOX, 7-9 BOX, 9-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 5/7/9 BOX, 2/7/9 BOX
RACE #9 $500,000 STAKES 6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 5:54 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	8-1	10	Buttercream Babe	I Ortiz Jr.
PLACE	7-2	6	Hidden Class	J Rosario
SHOW	4-1	7	Song of Norway	J R Velazquez
WILD CARD	6-1	12	Crown Imperial	R Santana Jr.
ALTERNATE 1	8-1	2	Myas Halo	D Cannon
ALTERNATE 2	20-1	8	Zo Lee	A Beschizza
* EXACTA: 10-6 BOX, 6-7 BOX, 7-12 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 6/7/10 BOX, 6/7/12 BOX
RACE #10 $150,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 6:28 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	3-1	9	Kara and Colleen	F Geroux
PLACE	7-2	10	Fancy Caber Neigh	T Gaffalione
SHOW	10-1	6	Kids Last Laugh	B J Hernandez Jr.
WILD CARD	12-1	11	Words of Praise	I Ortiz Jr.
ALTERNATE 1	9-2	5	Snow Princess	J Graham
ALTERNATE 2	6-1	7	Tidal Tactics	C A Torres
* EXACTA: 9-10 BOX, 10-6 BOX, 6-11 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 6/9/10 BOX, 6/10/11 BOX

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Thistledown Tip Sheet - September 13

Sep. 12, 2023


Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 74% of the time at this track.

RACE #1 $12,500 CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 12:50 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	8-1	6	Simply Valid	F Salazar Becerra
PLACE	5-2	1	American Prince	L R Rivera
SHOW	7-2	2	Wile E Peyote	E Barbaran
WILD CARD	5-1	7	Muni Muni Slew	L A Gonzalez
ALTERNATE 1	6-1	4	Unclejackomo	L A Batista
ALTERNATE 2	4-1	3	Master	A Guerere
* EXACTA: 6-1 BOX, 1-2 BOX, 2-7 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/6 BOX, 1/2/7 BOX
RACE #2 $16,000 CLAIMING 1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 1:20 PM ET
BEST BET: #2 HIGH FIRE
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-2	2	High Fire	C Keiser
PLACE	4-1	4	Penny Shots	F Salazar Becerra
SHOW	10-1	5	Sheza Fine Justice	L A Gonzalez
WILD CARD	6-1	6	Mobil Meister	L A Batista
ALTERNATE 1	5-1	7	Perfectingtheview	R Bowen
ALTERNATE 2	3-1	3	No Twowaysaboutit	G Rodriguez
* EXACTA: 2-4 BOX, 4-5 BOX, 5-6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/4/5 BOX, 4/5/6 BOX
RACE #3 $26,400 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 5 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 1:50 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	3-1	1	Full Time Strutin	F Salazar Becerra
PLACE	8-1	4	Vimisofa	J S Toledo
SHOW	5-2	2	Defender Gal	R Feliciano
WILD CARD	7-2	9	Dance My Way	R Bowen
ALTERNATE 1	8-1	5	First Blue	A I Diaz
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	3	Trama Queen	D J Haldar
* EXACTA: 1-4 BOX, 4-2 BOX, 2-9 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/4 BOX, 2/4/9 BOX
RACE #4 $28,000 ALLOWANCE 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:20 PM ET
BEST BET: #7 MR LOOOCH
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-2	7	Mr Loooch	R Feliciano
PLACE	4-1	6	Raise the Purses	F Salazar Becerra
SHOW	8-1	5	O Cigano	A I Diaz
WILD CARD	6-1	1	Moester	R Bowen
ALTERNATE 1	9-2	4	Susies Kid	T D Houghton
ALTERNATE 2	10-1	3	Garrett	R Halledeen
* EXACTA: 7-6 BOX, 6-5 BOX, 5-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 5/6/7 BOX, 1/5/6 BOX
RACE #5 $50,000 CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:50 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-1	6	Matthews Patriot	L A Gonzalez
PLACE	3-1	2	Stars N Space	G Rodriguez
SHOW	5-1	7	Overload	E Barbaran
WILD CARD	9-2	8	Oklahoma Joe	J A Bracho
ALTERNATE 1	8-1	5	Danes Heart	D J Haldar
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	3	Controller	R Bowen
* EXACTA: 6-2 BOX, 2-7 BOX, 7-8 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/6/7 BOX, 2/7/8 BOX
RACE #6 $35,800 ALLOWANCE 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:20 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	7-2	4	Mamas Home Cooking	H L Rosario Jr.
PLACE	9-5	1	Little Toy Guns	J A Bracho
SHOW	4-1	6	Surrounder	A I Diaz
WILD CARD	2-1	3	Color Bearer	L R Rivera
ALTERNATE 1	12-1	2	Gibby My Corn	R Halledeen
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	5	Music Gem	R Feliciano
* EXACTA: 4-1 BOX, 1-6 BOX, 6-3 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/4/6 BOX, 1/3/6 BOX
RACE #7 $7,500 CLAIMING 1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:50 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-2	2	Montauk Cove	M Cedillo
PLACE	4-1	5	Auld Lange Syne	J S Toledo
SHOW	7-2	7	Fishing for Fun	A I Diaz
WILD CARD	8-1	1	Exonerated Prez	Y Aviles
ALTERNATE 1	3-1	6	Golden Tone	H Berrios
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	4	At the Beach	J Sanchez
* EXACTA: 2-5 BOX, 5-7 BOX, 7-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/5/7 BOX, 1/5/7 BOX
RACE #8 $29,700 ALLOWANCE 1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:20 PM ET
BEST BET: #5 FAIR AND SQUARE
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-2	5	Fair and Square	R Bowen
PLACE	9-2	1	Raison Karter	J A Bracho
SHOW	7-2	4	Silence	G Rodriguez
WILD CARD	3-1	2	To Win	A I Diaz
ALTERNATE 1	5-1	6	Raven Moon	L A Batista
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	7	Relish the Ride	L R Rivera
* EXACTA: 5-1 BOX, 1-4 BOX, 4-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/4/5 BOX, 1/2/4 BOX

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Kentucky Downs Hotlist - September 13

Sep. 12, 2023


By Bob Ehalt and Matt Shifman
Hot List Key:
A : A preferred horse to watch B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches in the final 3 minutes and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4^th or worse
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.
3rd race – (1) Outadore has speed from the rail and should be tough to catch in this field. (12) Voodoo Zip drops in class and could be dangerous here. (7) Mailman Money could perk up here. (2) Tilted Towers may be a threat from an inside post. Betting strategy: 1 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-2-7-12.
5th race – (6) Sistina Chapel missed by a nose in her debut and should make amends here. (2) Cleopatra’s Nile may wake up on turf. (1) Silver Majesty could take a step forward on turf. (4) Floribunda could make some noise in her debut. Betting strategy: 6 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-2-4-6.
7th race – (1) Sahlabiya can control the pace from the inside and register a victory. (5) Jenny Lind will welcome a return to turf. (8) Private Credit has speed and can last for a big share of the purse. (4) Pure Country should be a factor in the final furlong. Betting strategy: 1 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-4-5-8. Doubles: 1-4-5-8 with 5-6-7-9.
8th race – (5) Good Lord Lorrie was a sharp debut winner at Saratoga and can return to the winner’s circle here. (7) Hedwig should be the one to fear. (9) Bledsoe merits attention in this field. (6) Go Otto Go might show some improvement on turf. Betting strategy: 5 to win, place. Exacta box: 5-6-7-9.
10th race – (5) Snow Princess will relish the added ground and should graduate here. (9) Kara and Colleen looks like the one to catch in the stretch. (2) Last Glimmer is nicely bred for turf. (10) Fancy Caber Neigh will be part of the early pace and could hang around until the finish. Betting strategy: 5 to win, place. Exacta box: 2-5-9-10.