Friday 9/15/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Al Cimaglia: Hoosier Park Late Pick 4 Analysis

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September 15, 2023 | By Al Cimaglia
Grand Circuit stakes headline the 14-race Hoosier Park card along with Indiana Sire Stakes action. The 0.50 Late Pick 4 starts in Race 11, and the sequence will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 11

4-Jada Caroline (8-1)-Comes off a sharp win on 9-7 after being 14 lengths back at the half and rallied strongly. It's doubtful that type of plan will work here, even if the 54.4 back half is repeated. But the Erv Miller trainee looks to be on the improve. Will need its best race ever and the price should be right to justify using on top and underneath in gimmicks.
5-Teelatini (2-1)-This is the obvious choice who very well could make it 6 in a row with a clean trip. There isn't anything to criticize and deserves respect. But the other selections appear to be getting better and could be in the mix at the top of lane.
7-All JK (5/2)-Likes to get on the engine and in the last 2 starts did just that versus Teelatini but couldn't hold the lead. Trace Tetrick set a tepid pace in the last start but to no avail. Not sure what his plan will be tonight. Is worth using but hopefully won't be over bet.
10-Lets Go Endofaera (3-1)-Team De Long pupil has been racing well. Could be rolling down the lane if gets away from the gate in good shape from the 2nd tier. This pilot isn't a slouch, and his task could be made easier if one of the long shots with inside post draws show some gate speed.

Race 12

3-Mars Hill (9/2)-Lost to T C I, the odds-on chalk in the Wellwood, that one got the jump and was driven aggressively like an overwhelming favorite. This is a nice Muscle Hill colt and should be a threat if takes to the Hoosier Park oval. Probably won't be 6 lengths behind the favorite at the half tonight and is worth a swing at the morning line price.
4-T C I (6/5)-This freshman has won 7 of 8 with the lone blemish a 2nd place finish in its first start of the year at M1. The wins have been almost effortless, and many could single here with good reason But that won't be my stance in its Hoosier debut.

Race 13

1-Tellmeitmatters (2-1)-Has been a player in every start except the two when the Welch entry left from post 9. Came off 2 straight wins and then lost last week even after pacing the 2nd half in 54.3. Has a big chance to return to winning ways.
3-Prestigious Prince (5/2)-Has hit the board in 4 of 6 finishing 2nd three times. Lewayne Miller could work a cozy trip and should be there at the wire.

Race 14

5-Round Here Buzz (7/2)-Not sure if 7/2 is a fair price for Buzz, with a 1-26 record. But drops to a better level for success and gets a new set of hands in Scott Zeron. A quick pace could help and that looks like a possibility in a competitive affair.
6-Magnificent Mark (9/2)-Winner of 2 straight has been claimed in the last 3 races. This claim could reap benefits right away, appears to fit well and isn't in a for a tag. Jacob Fox is the owner trainer, and the barn hasn't done much but this might be one of the favorites.
9-Vespa N (10-1)-Should offer a very nice price due to post 9. Finished 3rd in last at 20-1. Will look for a big try, could surprise if gets a good seat off the gate and the pace is hot.
11-Peter Dalt (15-1)-Peter gets the services of Ronnie Wrenn and that should help. Leaving from the 2nd tier isn't ideal but has been facing better and should like the company. If #2 shows some gate speed things might set-up for this long shot.

0.50 Late Pick 4

4,5,7,10/3,4/1,3/5,6,9,11
Total Bet=$32

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jeremy Plonk: Pimlico Friday Pick 4 Analysis

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September 14, 2023 | By Jeremy Plonk
Pinch-hitting this week for Frank Carulli in the ‘Fridays with Frank’ space as he enjoys a week of vacation. Week two of the Pimlico short stand kicks off with a nine-race card at Old Hilltop where the late pick four has 40 horses in the entry box with two turf races bookending a pair of dirt allowance co-feature races. Clear skies are in the forecast.

Let’s get to work.

Pimlico| Race 6 | starter optional claiming turf sprint

The inside four runners all have a ton of early gate speed, so I’m looking for the pair of finishers in this race with the best late kick. #7 Lenten Rose should be beautifully drawn with all that speed leaving insider her and be able to save ground and rally. #11 Puppymonkeybaby goes for a red-hot Keiron Magee barn and has the most formidable closing move.

Pimlico | Race 7 | allowance sprint on dirt

Brittany Russell hasn’t missed often with previous Bob Baffert transfers from California to Maryland, so expect #7 Murray to be an even-money morning line favorite extremely tough to topple. All seven rivals here have appeared for at least one claiming tag in their careers, so there’s a wide class gap. Take the single, but that fact means a shorter overall payoff expected and therefore you’ll want to keep the number of combinations down in other races and not spread too thin.

Pimlico | Race 8 | allowance route on dirt

Standing against 2-1 morning line favorite #3 All Threes here, not sure he’s as good around two turns or at Pimlico vs. Laurel. Can also toss #4 Outlier in my plays. That leaves four legitimate contenders, including either half of the Jamie Ness coupling. Preferences to #5 Iywaan and #2 Everett’s Song, the latter 3-for-3 on the local main track.

Pimlico | Race 9 | claiming turf route

As with most any non-winners of 2 lifetime claimer, I’m giving the edge to horses with the strongest single victories on their resumes. #11 Cumberland Falls’ $50,000 level Gulfstream win during the strength of the Championship Meet in late March stands out vs. these. The turf form is solid and totally disregard the last start in a dirt sprint. Despite a large field size, resist the temptation to spread and utilize the real value in singling when others are diluting their tickets.

The Ticket
7,11 with 7 with 5,2,1,6 with 11 = $4 for $.50 play

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

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Churchill Downs - Race #4

#5 Scatlie	Think this race might be begging for anyone who can finish with a little authority, and she has shown a little ability to stay on in a couple of those starts so far. I'd want something more like the 4/1 ML price than the even-money offering from last out.
#7 Cowichan	Yeah, she's probably supposed to win this and will take cash accordingly, but it's tough to love a short price after five close underneath slices from as many starts. She could win by three, but I also wouldn't be surprised to see her find a way to lose again.
#11 Sassy Walker	Considered her for a long time, and I think she's in line for a great pressing trip from out here. She hasn't quite shown the final gear needed to punch past late, and that's the only concern keeping her from the top spot for me today -- same issue as the likely chalk.
Race Summary	Scatlie could get a dreamy trip in here while spying the speed, and her ability to get past some horses late should serve her well in a race where some of the logical players may be spinning their wheels a bit late.

Churchill Downs - Race #9

#5 Joyful Applause	She might be a touch better price here than she has been in her recent starts, and I think her simultaneously tactical and one-paced style might play really well from right near the pace today. Solid lead.
#6 One Time Mo	Nothing really wrong with the overall form and the way it fits here, but her late-running style can always leave her vulnerable to leaving too much to do. Think someone a bit more tactical might make sense here.
#3 Honey Hauler	You won't catch me tossing too many Presque Isle shippers if they make any sense at all on paper, and I think this one has a little bit of appeal while getting on the local turf. Price might be interesting enough to give her a look.
Race Summary	Lot of things to like about Joyful Applause here for me, as I think she might trip out while close to the splits in a spot where the race flow should give her the jump on a couple of the other key runners.

Churchill Downs - Race #10

#9 Crushed Ice	She's in the picture here with any additional move in the right direction, and I think she might find a nice spot to spy the leader from out here. Something last her last might keep her there.
#4 Chanel Point	She didn't run all that badly with some trouble in the debut in her only career dirt start, so maybe the surface switch will wake her up a little bit after a couple flat turf tries.
#6 Stagflation	She swung wide and chased a tough winner in the debut try, but there's some reasonable expectation of upside today with that run under her belt. I take her pretty seriously here, but the huge drop in price off the 59/1 debut does dampen my enthusiasm a little bit.
Race Summary	Crushed Ice might be tough in here with a good draw for the likely race shape, and I don't get the feeling that anyone's going to remember this as the deepest maiden spot of the meet.

Remington Park - Race #7

#2 Behemah Star	Think his Louisiana-bred stakes form looks competitive with this group, as he has been keeping company with a tough customer in Touchuponastar. Cozy and clever fit here.
#5 Call of Honor	He's meeting a couple others with a little bit of forward ability, but he looks like the most committed early player, and he wouldn't be a total shock for a piece. He has been in a bit tough with similar in the past, so make sure he's offering a playable price.
#1 Cosmo	Something like his last would probably make him a win candidate right back, but I don't totally trust today's race flow and think the top choice might get a touch more tactical trip.
Race Summary	Behemah Star is super reliable and has earned nearly a quarter million dollars while still being eligible for this spot. Think his baseline try makes him tough.

Remington Park - Race #8

#2 Da Prairie Girl	She's not a serious early burner, but she might find herself in an advantageous spot right up on the splits even while turning back off the bench. In the mix.
#5 Dicey	She's a pretty honest finisher and has run well locally in a few tough spots, but her overall form makes me think she's probably a slight underlay in the win pool tonight based on her realistic chances of winning this.
#1 Sinnin N Grinnin	She rarely runs a bad one in the state, and she's fast enough to never lose touch early on from the inside. She's probably adaptable enough to give her rider a couple options out of the gate. Wouldn't be any surprise.
Race Summary	Da Prairie Girl has not run often through two seasons, but her better stuff keeps her in the mix here despite having become a route runner late in her campaign last year.

Remington Park - Race #9

#7 Jazzy Lassie	Interested to see what kind of price she's going to offer on the rise from $25,000 at Lone Star, but I'll take an in-form riser with competitive lines any day if the price is right -- check the tote.
#3 Hooray for Credit	She stuck around well last out and has taken nicely to this turf route game, but she is getting short on excuses at this point and might find one or two of them a bit too tough late.
#4 Leopard Bait	Considered this one on top as she gets around two turns and tries the turf for the first time, as I could see those even types of one-turn efforts translating well to this new trip.
Race Summary	I think this is a pretty competitive spot with several win candidates, but Jazzy Lassie steps up into special weight company with reliable running lines, and I think she's going to get a dreamy trip tracking the pace.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Gulfstream Park

PURCHASE

Gulfstream Park - Race 7	$1 Daily Double / $1 Exacta / $.50 Trifecta / $.10 Superfecta / $1 Super Hi 5
Optional Claiming $25,000 • 5 Furlongs • All-Weather • Ages 3 and up • CR: 91 • Purse: $51,000 • Post: 3:53P
FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON $12,000 ONCE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER OR RESTRICTED OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OR CLAIMING PRICE $25,000. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JUNE 15 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $25,000 (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $20,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ALLOWANCES)(MAIDEN RACES NOT CONSIDERED IN ALLOWANCES).

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Lone Front-runner. MISTICA TRAVIESA (CHI) is the Lone Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * GITANA: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. MISTICA TRAVIESA (CHI): Jockey/Trainer combination return on investment is at least +20. Horse's average winning distance is within half a furlong of today's distance (within 50 yards if a Quarter Horse race). FAWNING: Horse had a bullet workout wi thin the last seven days. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. GUNESH: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/ surface.
6	GITANA	7/2	5/1
1	MISTICA TRAVIESA (CHI)	12/1	6/1
2	FAWNING	9/2	7/1
7	GUNESH	9/2	8/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	MISTICA TRAVIESA (CHI)	1	12/1	Front-runner	84	79	92.9	55.9	44.4
7	GUNESH	7	9/2	Stalker	90	90	83.7	78.0	74.0
6	GITANA	6	7/2	Stalker	90	87	78.8	87.4	81.9
4	THE MRS	4	5/2	Stalker	81	82	73.4	78.4	70.9
2	FAWNING	2	9/2	Alternator/Stalker	91	84	83.1	75.9	69.4
5	ANATOMY	5	3/1	Trailer	84	84	74.4	70.2	62.2
3	ZOSTEROP	3	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	78	77	50.0	37.5	25.0

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for AlbuquerquePURCHASE

Albuquerque - Race 9	Exacta / 50 Cent Trifecta / 10 Cent Superfecta / Last Leg Pick 4 Second Half Late Daily Double
Claiming $6,250 • 1 Mile • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 92 • Purse: $14,900 • Post: 4:50P
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON TWO RACES SINCE MARCH 15, 2023 OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JUNE 15 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $6,250. NEW MEXICO BRED CLAIMING PRICE $8,000.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Dominant Front-runner. ASTRONOMICAL is the Dominant Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * ASTRONOMICAL: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/su rface. Horse has the highest average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. NORTHCUT: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average E quibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
3	ASTRONOMICAL	3/1	7/5
9	NORTHCUT	9/2	6/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
3	ASTRONOMICAL	3	3/1	Front-runner	93	92	84.8	83.6	80.6
7	ALLERGIC TO LOGIC	7	6/1	Front-runner	73	67	58.6	60.1	45.1
9	NORTHCUT	9	9/2	Alternator/Stalker	92	84	83.4	78.7	75.7
5	STOCK DEAL	5	10/1	Alternator/Stalker	86	76	63.8	75.0	66.0
6	REVOLT AND RIOT	6	6/1	Alternator/Stalker	71	76	52.6	70.9	57.4
2	GLENDORA MINECAT	2	7/2	Alternator/Non-contender	85	70	72.2	70.4	63.9
1	FORT STANTON SCOUT	1	15/1	Alternator/Non-contender	72	69	63.0	65.4	53.4
4	DOM WAYNE	4	12/1	Alternator/Non-contender	78	69	58.7	60.7	46.7
8	MONEY LENDER	8	10/1	Alternator/Non-contender	70	75	53.8	60.4	47.4

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Meadowlands - Race #2 - Post: 7:28pm - Claiming - 5.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $21,000 Class Rating: 82

Rating:

#8 THE SWEATY FOX (ML=6/1)
#1 FAST COREY (ML=4/1)
#6 BEN'S SUNNY ISLAND (ML=3/1)


THE SWEATY FOX - This rider and trainer have a positive ROI when they join forces. This filly usually does her best running late. Look for her way back early in the race and rolling down the lane on the tiring speed horses. In this race here, this beautiful animal has garnered the highest speed rating at the distance, so I have to give her the edge. FAST COREY - Filly has shown some pace. This shorter distance should be better for her. This horse picks up a lot of cash per start. I believe she will add to that bankroll in this event. BEN'S SUNNY ISLAND - This filly's last speed fig recorded on August 13th is in the top spot in last race speed ratings.

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 WHATCHAMACALL (ML=7/2), #5 TAK E LADY (ML=9/2), #2 BETTER CALL MAMA (ML=5/1),

WHATCHAMACALL - In any event of 5 furlongs, I like to play a contender that has been on the board in sprint events of late. Finished sixth last time. Would have to improve to finish in the money in today's event. Not probable that the speed figure she garnered on Aug 13th will be enough in this affair. TAK E LADY - Awfully hard to bet on this entrant when she hasn't been showing any gumption of late. You think this animal is going to be victorious just because she's always close. Just doesn't finish on top often. Don't think this questionable contender will make an impact in today's event. That last rating was run-of-the-mill when compared with today's Equibase class figure. BETTER CALL MAMA - Not easy to wager on this mount today. Make her show you something in a sprint event before you play her in a race of 5 furlongs. This horse just hasn't looked fit of late. Don't think this steed will do much running in today's race. That last speed rating was mediocre when compared with today's class rating.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#8 THE SWEATY FOX is the play if we get odds of 3/1 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	8 with [1,6]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [1,6,8] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Prairie Meadows

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 6 - Maiden Special Weight - 5.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $43243 Class Rating: 53

FOR REGISTERED STATE BRED MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE, FOUR, FIVE, AND SIX YEARS OLD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 7 HOP AWAY HOTTIE 2/1
# 2 CLIMB TO GLORY 7/2
# 3 CAN'T MAKE ME 3/1

HOP AWAY HOTTIE has a very good shot to take this race. She has recorded formidable figures under today's conditions and will probably fare well against this field. I like the rider on this filly - very good chance to win the competition. Will probably go to the front end and should never look back. CLIMB TO GLORY - This filly with Delacruz in the irons makes her a contender. She looks quite good in this slot and I expect will be on the lead or close at the midpoint. CAN'T MAKE ME - The duo of Tohill/McShane has one of the best ROI percentages in this field. This handler has the top return on investment in this group with entries running at this distance and surface.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Charles Town - Race #8 - Post: 10:32pm - Maiden Special - 6.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $26,500 Class Rating: 52

Rating:

#3 VERY VENUS (ML=9/2)


VERY VENUS - Have to make this filly a win candidate; she comes off a solid race on Aug 25th.

Vulnerable Contenders: #5 JUST HAVE FAITH (ML=8/5), #6 FAR MORE (ML=3/1), #7 OUR BREW (ML=5/1),

JUST HAVE FAITH - This closer will probably be closing much too late to make a mark in this race. FAR MORE - The Equibase speed figs are going downward. I'm not playing this horse off of that trend.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Putting our cash on #3 VERY VENUS to win. Have to have odds of at least 1/1 or better though
EXACTA WAGERS:	Skip
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Skip
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Penn National

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 3 - Maiden Special Weight - 5.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $27100 Class Rating: 66

FOR MAIDENS, TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 119 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 7 SONG OF THE EAST 8/1
# 5 PTERODACTYL 4/1
# 6 CIRCLE P 15/1

SONG OF THE EAST has a solid shot to take this race and could score at a price in here. Must be given consideration as sire's progeny has among the best win rate as two-year olds. The conditioner wheels this one back quickly to race again. Sire's offspring have run admirably recently. PTERODACTYL - Must be given consideration as sire's progeny has among the best win rate as two-year olds. He is worth a look given that the trainer wins 24 percent of his races with two-year olds, which is clearly among the most respectable in the race. Kravets has earned solid returns (+36 return on investment ) with first asking starters.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Belmont Park Hotlist - September 15

Sep. 14, 2023


By Matt Shifman and Bob Ehalt
Hot List Key:
A: A preferred horse to watch B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4^th or worse
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.
1^st race [Clm 16000 N2L, 6F] – (2) Maggie moved from a maiden claiming score to running second at this level and was claimed. (4) Champagne Poetry was claimed for $30,000 two races back and was then moved up to a starter allowance. She has plenty of back class and drops to the softest spot of her career. (3) Phinneys Harbor was a front-end winner last month at Saratoga after moving from turf to dirt and moves to the right level to try and win again. (1) Serenade Soldier returned from a nine month layoff in a $35,000 claimer last month where she pressed the pace.
3^rd race [Alw 50000s, 6F] – (5) Clubhouse was a winner two races back for a $25,000 tag by more than five lengths and gets blinkers on. Earlier in the year he was second in the Jimmy Winkfield at Aqueduct. (6) Tivy set the pace, finished second about two weeks ago, and was claimed for $35,000 by Jena Antonucci. (1) Pay Zone broke his maiden for a $40,000 tag and is projected to be on the lead in this small field. (2) Tenebris was fourth and second in his last two starts at this level but is cross-entered at Pimlico.
7^th race [OC 80k/C, 6

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Churchill Downs Hotlist - September 15

Sep. 14, 2023


By Bob Ehalt and Matt Shifman
Hot List Key:
A : A preferred horse to watch B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches in the final 3 minutes and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4^th or worse
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.
1st race – (6) Derrick was a game third in his debut and should post a maiden win here in a claimer. (8) Active Duty will welcome a return to a claimer. (2) Luna Vieja fits in nicely here. (4) Game Warden looms a threat in the final furlong. Betting strategy: 6 to win, place. Exacta box: 2-4-6-8.
3rd race – (3) Stanley Market steps up off a claim after a good second but can work out a good trip here. (5) Donya Know It takes a suspicious drop off a big win but looms as the one to fear. (1) Priddis has enough speed to be a threat from the rail. (10) Tap N Sway might wake up here. Betting strategy: 3 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-3-5-10. Doubles: 1-3-5-10 with 2-3-5-7. Pick 3: 1-3-5-10 with 2-3-5-7 with 4-6-8-9.
4th race – (5) Scatlie missed by a head last time and seems poised for a winning effort here. (7) Cowichan returns from a layoff and looks like the main threat. (2) Mon Dieu is a firster who can be troublesome here. (3) Red River Magic was second in her debut and cannot be ignored. Betting strategy: 5 to win, place. Exacta box: 2-3-5-7. Doubles: 2-3-5-7 with 4-6-8-9.
5th race – (8) B Wayne was widely regarded and heavily bet before his disappointing debut. Deserves a second chance here. (9) Omex was fourth in a stakes and should be the main rival. (4) Mo Rhodes can move forward off a useful debut. (6) Northen Flame was third last time and may take a step forward here. Betting strategy: 8 to win, place. Exacta box: 4-6-8-9.
8th race – (2) Normandy Hero took a big step forward in his second start and should produce another strong effort here. (3) American Rascal returns from Royal Ascot and has been working sharply. (5) Call Me Andy has been turning in good efforts in stakes company and figures to be a big threat here. (6) Balta has a nice turn of speed and could hang around until the end. Betting strategy: 2 to win, place. Exacta box: 2-3-5-6.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Los Alamitos Tip Sheet - September 15

Sep. 14, 2023


Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 68% of the time at this track.

RACE #1 $30,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING 5 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:00 PM ET
BEST BET: #2 WORK IT
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	2-1	2	Work It	E A Maldonado
PLACE	7-5	1	Details Matter	J Valdivia Jr.
SHOW	6-1	4	Pleaseusetheportal	J Torrealba
WILD CARD	5-1	6	Pharoahs List	R A Vazquez
ALTERNATE 1	10-1	3	Dawson	C Ortega
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	5	Screaming Virginia	J D Lopez
* EXACTA: 2-1 BOX, 1-4 BOX, 4-6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/4 BOX, 1/4/6 BOX
RACE #2 $10,000 CLAIMING 5 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:28 PM ET
BEST BET: #2 ROSE GIRL
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-2	2	Rose Girl	A Alsagoor
PLACE	2-1	4	Bella Baby	R A Vazquez
SHOW	9-5	1	Parco	E Payeras
WILD CARD	9-2	5	Sapadilla	D A Herrera
ALTERNATE 1	8-1	3	Zzyzx	J Couton
* EXACTA: 2-4 BOX, 4-1 BOX, 1-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/4 BOX, 1/4/5 BOX
RACE #3 $20,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:56 PM ET
BEST BET: #6 MY BROTHER MIKE
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-2	6	My Brother Mike	E A Maldonado
PLACE	3-1	2	Ranger Joe	R A Vazquez
SHOW	4-1	5	Road of Love	C Ortega
WILD CARD	2-1	1	Bluegrass Ryder	A Escobedo
ALTERNATE 1	6-1	3	Acceleray	R S Ramirez
ALTERNATE 2	20-1	4	Number One Son	J Torrealba
* EXACTA: 6-2 BOX, 2-5 BOX, 5-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/5/6 BOX, 1/2/5 BOX
RACE #4 $21,000 STARTER ALLOWANCE 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 5:24 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	3-1	3	Lasting Love	R A Vazquez
PLACE	7-2	1	Gayles Evening	R S Ramirez
SHOW	5-2	2	Indys Star	D A Herrera
WILD CARD	9-2	4	Aloha Kitten	M Gutierrez
ALTERNATE 1	3-1	5	A New Peace	A Ayuso
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	6	Flat Out Joy	C Figueroa
* EXACTA: 3-1 BOX, 1-2 BOX, 2-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/3 BOX, 1/2/4 BOX
RACE #5 $17,000 STARTER ALLOWANCE 5 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 5:52 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-2	1	Project Leader	R S Ramirez
PLACE	1-1	4	My Man Bags	T J Pereira
SHOW	7-2	3	Handrsdream	E Payeras
WILD CARD	12-1	5	Nolongerahobby	G Franco
ALTERNATE 1	8-1	6	Equipo A	R A Vazquez
ALTERNATE 2	15-1	2	Debt Monger	D A Herrera
* EXACTA: 1-4 BOX, 4-3 BOX, 3-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/3/4 BOX, 3/4/5 BOX
RACE #6 $28,000 STARTER ALLOWANCE 6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 6:20 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-2	3	So Im Told	E Payeras
PLACE	8-5	6	The Key Is Unity	H I Berrios
SHOW	4-1	4	Soul of Midnight	R S Ramirez
WILD CARD	7-2	1	Mars On Fire	T J Pereira
ALTERNATE 1	15-1	5	Tigers Arrow	C Ortega
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	2	Galoping Cat	E A Maldonado
* EXACTA: 3-6 BOX, 6-4 BOX, 4-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/4/6 BOX, 1/4/6 BOX
RACE #7 $10,000 CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 6:48 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-2	2	Tembo	A Alsagoor
PLACE	7-2	7	Red Cross Knight	E A Maldonado
SHOW	2-1	8	Midnight Special	R A Vazquez
WILD CARD	7-2	6	Perfect D	E Payeras
ALTERNATE 1	10-1	1	Dr. Troutman	R S Ramirez
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	4	Fast Per Se	E Hernandez
* EXACTA: 2-7 BOX, 7-8 BOX, 8-6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/7/8 BOX, 6/7/8 BOX

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Belmont Park Tip Sheet - September 15

Sep. 14, 2023

Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 71% of the time at this track.

RACE #1 $16,000 CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 1:05 PM ET
BEST BET: #4 CHAMPAGNE POETRY
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	2-1	4	Champagne Poetry	K Davis
PLACE	9-5	2	Maggie	D Davis
SHOW	6-1	1	Serenade Soldier	R Silvera
WILD CARD	6-1	3	Phinneys Harbor	L R Rivera Jr.
ALTERNATE 1	9-2	5	Baby Sox	M Iorio
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	6	Goodbye Kyle	I Castillo
* EXACTA: 4-2 BOX, 2-1 BOX, 1-3 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/4 BOX, 1/2/3 BOX
RACE #2 $30,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING 1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 1:36 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-2	5	Mucho Mama Mia	I Ortiz Jr.
PLACE	9-2	1	Unholy	T McCarthy
SHOW	6-1	8	Cause Im Elegant	J A Gomez
WILD CARD	7-2	2	Strange Fruit	J L Ortiz
ALTERNATE 1	10-1	4	Power and Glory	M Iorio
ALTERNATE 2	5-1	6	Shotgun Patsy	J R Martinez
* EXACTA: 5-1 BOX, 1-8 BOX, 8-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/5/8 BOX, 1/2/8 BOX
RACE #3 $65,000 STARTER ALLOWANCE 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:07 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	9-2	3	Barons Legacy	M Franco
PLACE	9-5	6	Tivy	J Castellano
SHOW	7-2	2	Tenebris	D Davis
WILD CARD	4-1	4	Built to Last	K Carmouche
ALTERNATE 1	6-1	5	Clubhouse	F Prat
ALTERNATE 2	5-1	1	Pay Zone	J Lezcano
* EXACTA: 3-6 BOX, 6-2 BOX, 2-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/3/6 BOX, 2/4/6 BOX
RACE #4 $85,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING 1 1/16 MILES ON THE OUTER TURF - POST TIME: 2:39 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	7-2	5	Lets Go Big Blue	J Lezcano
PLACE	5-1	10	Rough Draft	I Ortiz Jr.
SHOW	6-1	3	Rinaldi	K Davis
WILD CARD	9-2	2	Agent Creed	J L Ortiz
ALTERNATE 1	6-1	8	Citizen K	M Franco
ALTERNATE 2	6-1	6	Straight Arrow	J Rosario
* EXACTA: 5-10 BOX, 10-3 BOX, 3-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/5/10 BOX, 2/3/10 BOX
RACE #5 $75,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 1 1/16 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 3:11 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-1	8	She Is All Busines	J Alvarado
PLACE	6-1	3	Awesome Czech	M Franco
SHOW	7-2	7	Once an Eagle	F Prat
WILD CARD	10-1	9	Free for Me	J L Ortiz
ALTERNATE 1	9-2	12	Alittlebitnaughty	I Ortiz Jr.
ALTERNATE 2	10-1	2	Boxed Wine	J Castellano
* EXACTA: 8-3 BOX, 3-7 BOX, 7-9 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/7/8 BOX, 3/7/9 BOX
RACE #6 $90,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:43 PM ET
BEST BET: #4 ONLOOKER
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-2	4	Onlooker	I Ortiz Jr.
PLACE	9-2	6	La Girvina	J L Ortiz
SHOW	7-2	8	Thought Experiment	M Franco
WILD CARD	6-1	7	Put the Crazy Away	F Prat
ALTERNATE 1	9-2	1	Feathering	J Alvarado
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	5	Risk Free	J Rosario
* EXACTA: 4-6 BOX, 6-8 BOX, 8-7 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4/6/8 BOX, 6/7/8 BOX
RACE #7 $105,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING 6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:17 PM ET
BEST BET: #8 ROTKNEE
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	7-2	8	Rotknee	J Lezcano
PLACE	9-2	6	Ny Traffic	I Ortiz Jr.
SHOW	5-1	7	Kinetic Sky	M Franco
WILD CARD	4-1	1A	Colonel Bowman	I Castillo
ALTERNATE 1	4-1	1	Synthesis	J Castellano
ALTERNATE 2	6-1	4	Sheriff Bianco	J L Ortiz
* EXACTA: 8-6 BOX, 6-7 BOX, 7-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 6/7/8 BOX, 1/6/7 BOX
RACE #8 $135,000 STAKES 1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 4:49 PM ET
** BONUS COMMENTARY ** $135,000 WINTER MEMORIES STAKES
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	6-1	3	Sacred Wish	J R Velazquez
PLACE	4-1	1	Liguria	I Ortiz Jr.
SHOW	7-2	8	Tax Implications	M Franco
WILD CARD	6-1	7	Soviet Excess	D Davis
ALTERNATE 1	5-1	5	Silver Skillet	J Rosario
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	10	Lady Beth	F Prat
* EXACTA: 3-1 BOX, 1-8 BOX, 8-7 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/3/8 BOX, 1/7/8 BOX
COMMENTS: SACRED WISH gets to try turf for the first time and fits here is she likes it. LIGURIA has as many turf wins as anyone in this field. TAX IMPLICATIONS if she gets a better trip than last time will be tough in here. SOVIET EXCESS is very consistent and should be around at the end.
RACE #9 $75,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 6 FURLONGS ON THE OUTER TURF - POST TIME: 5:21 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	7-2	8	Gioia Mia	I Ortiz Jr.
PLACE	6-1	4	Sun and Wind	F Prat
SHOW	3-1	1	Being Betty	J Lezcano
WILD CARD	6-1	9	Follow Your Arrow	J Rosario
ALTERNATE 1	5-1	10	Stormy Disco	T McCarthy
ALTERNATE 2	10-1	5	Needed	J Castellano
* EXACTA: 8-4 BOX, 4-1 BOX, 1-9 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/4/8 BOX, 1/4/9 BOX

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Churchill Downs Tip Sheet - September 15

Sep. 14, 2023


Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 70% of the time at this track.

RACE #1 $75,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING 1 1/16 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 12:45 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	7-2	5	Dr Kringle	C Landeros
PLACE	4-1	6	Derrick	T Gaffalione
SHOW	9-2	2	Luna Vieja	E Morales
WILD CARD	3-1	4	Game Warden	M Garcia
ALTERNATE 1	10-1	3	First Player	B J Hernandez Jr.
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	1	Fear of Union	J Graham
* EXACTA: 5-6 BOX, 6-2 BOX, 2-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/5/6 BOX, 2/4/6 BOX
RACE #2 $20,000 CLAIMING 1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 1:14 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	3-1	5	Longshadow	T Gaffalione
PLACE	7-2	1	Lucky Boss	E Esquivel
SHOW	5-2	7	Carmichael	C A Torres
WILD CARD	8-1	3	Mr. Peterkin	L Machado
ALTERNATE 1	7-2	6	Trigger Happy	F Arrieta
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	4	Coalminers Kitten	R Miranda
* EXACTA: 5-1 BOX, 1-7 BOX, 7-3 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/5/7 BOX, 1/3/7 BOX
RACE #3 $10,000 CLAIMING 6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 1:43 PM ET
BEST BET: #3 STANLEY MARKET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	3-1	3	Stanley Market	Y Navas
PLACE	6-1	4	Duplicitous	F Arrieta
SHOW	9-5	5	Donya Know It	F Geroux
WILD CARD	8-1	10	Tap N Sway	T Gaffalione
ALTERNATE 1	15-1	7	Joans Way	J Loveberry
ALTERNATE 2	6-1	1	Priddis	C A Emigh
* EXACTA: 3-4 BOX, 4-5 BOX, 5-10 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/4/5 BOX, 4/5/10 BOX
RACE #4 $120,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 5 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 2:13 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	4-1	5	Scatlie	D Cannon
PLACE	12-1	4	Three Polks	G Saez
SHOW	2-1	7	Cowichan	G Corrales
WILD CARD	6-1	3	Red River Magic	F Arrieta
ALTERNATE 1	8-1	9	Endora	T Gaffalione
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	2	Mon Dieu	C A Torres
* EXACTA: 5-4 BOX, 4-7 BOX, 7-3 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4/5/7 BOX, 3/4/7 BOX
RACE #5 $120,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 1 1/16 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:45 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-1	8	B Wayne	F Geroux
PLACE	6-1	6	Northern Flame	J R Leparoux
SHOW	5-2	1	Real Men Violin	B J Hernandez Jr.
WILD CARD	10-1	3	Farm Team	C J Lanerie
ALTERNATE 1	3-1	9	Omex	T Gaffalione
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	7	Phreddie Mac	C A Torres
* EXACTA: 8-6 BOX, 6-1 BOX, 1-3 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/6/8 BOX, 1/3/6 BOX
RACE #6 $72,000 STARTER ALLOWANCE 6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:18 PM ET
BEST BET: #5 CONDIMENT GIRL
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	3-1	5	Condiment Girl	C A Torres
PLACE	4-1	7	Home Port	L Machado
SHOW	5-2	2	Whats to Do	J Talamo
WILD CARD	9-2	4	One Way Or Another	M Garcia
ALTERNATE 1	7-2	3	Argumental	T Gaffalione
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	1	Coexist	E Morales
* EXACTA: 5-7 BOX, 7-2 BOX, 2-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/5/7 BOX, 2/4/7 BOX
RACE #7 $120,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 1 1/16 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:50 PM ET
BEST BET: #3 BLACK DIAMOND
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	4-1	3	Black Diamond	C Landeros
PLACE	6-1	4	Parchment Party	J Graham
SHOW	5-1	6	Collins	T Gaffalione
WILD CARD	7-2	1	Le Gris	J R Leparoux
ALTERNATE 1	8-1	7	Allied Victory	L Machado
ALTERNATE 2	9-2	9	Django	B J Hernandez Jr.
* EXACTA: 3-4 BOX, 4-6 BOX, 6-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/4/6 BOX, 1/4/6 BOX
RACE #8 $127,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING 6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:22 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	3-1	2	Normandy Hero	A Achard
PLACE	8-5	3	American Rascal	T Gaffalione
SHOW	5-1	6	Balta	C A Torres
WILD CARD	6-1	4	Coulditbemajic	R Bejarano
ALTERNATE 1	9-2	5	Call Me Andy	M Garcia
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	1	Sponge Bath	F Arrieta
* EXACTA: 2-3 BOX, 3-6 BOX, 6-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/3/6 BOX, 3/4/6 BOX
RACE #9 $134,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING 1 1/8 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 4:55 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	4-1	6	One Time Mo	C J Lanerie
PLACE	3-1	8	Fancy Martini	J Graham
SHOW	12-1	4	Friendlypersuasion	J A Torres
WILD CARD	5-1	1	Shes Gone	M Garcia
ALTERNATE 1	6-1	5	Joyful Applause	O Mojica
ALTERNATE 2	9-2	7	Lady Hideaway	B J Hernandez Jr.
* EXACTA: 6-8 BOX, 8-4 BOX, 4-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4/6/8 BOX, 1/4/8 BOX
RACE #10 $92,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 5:26 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-1	8	Itsablingthing	F Peterson
PLACE	3-1	6	Stagflation	J Graham
SHOW	6-1	4	Chanel Point	F Arrieta
WILD CARD	6-1	7	My Best Day Ever	C J Lanerie
ALTERNATE 1	8-1	1	Imperator Furiosa	L Machado
ALTERNATE 2	4-1	9	Crushed Ice	R Gutierrez
* EXACTA: 8-6 BOX, 6-4 BOX, 4-7 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4/6/8 BOX, 4/6/7 BOX