Saturday 9/16/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Churchill Downs Tip Sheet - September 16

Sep. 15, 2023


Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 70% of the time at this track.

RACE #1 $92,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 12:45 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	6-1	9	Krickle	T Heard
PLACE	4-1	1	Butterfly Queen	T Gaffalione
SHOW	5-1	10	Accommodate Eva	R Gutierrez
WILD CARD	9-2	5	Mo for Us	C A Torres
ALTERNATE 1	10-1	11	Princess Is Olivia	F Arrieta
ALTERNATE 2	10-1	3	Miss Claudette	M Garcia
* EXACTA: 9-1 BOX, 1-10 BOX, 10-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/9/10 BOX, 1/5/10 BOX
RACE #2 $120,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 1 1/8 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 1:14 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	2-1	8	Single Dot Yaht	B J Hernandez Jr.
PLACE	5-2	3	Fayette Spirit	C A Torres
SHOW	3-1	6	Cairos Ghost	E Morales
WILD CARD	7-2	4	Clydes Got a Gun	O Mojica
ALTERNATE 1	6-1	5	Big Skippy	D Cannon
ALTERNATE 2	4-1	7	Real Naughty	J Graham
* EXACTA: 8-3 BOX, 3-6 BOX, 6-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/6/8 BOX, 3/4/6 BOX
RACE #3 $120,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 1:43 PM ET
BEST BET: #1 MYSTICAL CHANT
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	3-1	1	Mystical Chant	R Santana Jr.
PLACE	9-2	9	Managing Mischief	G Corrales
SHOW	7-2	14	Almostgone Rocket	F Prat
WILD CARD	4-1	10	Life Advice	T Gaffalione
ALTERNATE 1	4-1	13	Pin Up Betty	T Gaffalione
ALTERNATE 2	6-1	2	Plagne Champagne	E Morales
* EXACTA: 1-9 BOX, 9-14 BOX, 14-10 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/9/14 BOX, 9/10/14 BOX
RACE #4 $300,000 STAKES 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:13 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	6-5	3	Strobe	F Geroux
PLACE	1-1	4	Bango	T Gaffalione
SHOW	6-1	5	Gulfstream Way	R Santana Jr.
WILD CARD	8-1	6	Necker Island	M Murrill
ALTERNATE 1	30-1	2	Awesome Aaron	R Bejarano
ALTERNATE 2	30-1	1	Baytown Bear	J Elliott
* EXACTA: 3-4 BOX, 4-5 BOX, 5-6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/4/5 BOX, 4/5/6 BOX
RACE #5 $75,000 CLAIMING 7 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:45 PM ET
BEST BET: #2 DEBATE
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-2	2	Debate	E Morales
PLACE	3-1	1	Quick Hammer	G Corrales
SHOW	7-2	6	Underhills Tab	C A Torres
WILD CARD	8-1	8	Magnificent Mile	E Esquivel
ALTERNATE 1	10-1	3	Gunner Bay	J Elliott
ALTERNATE 2	10-1	5	Stand for Freedom	C Landeros
* EXACTA: 2-1 BOX, 1-6 BOX, 6-8 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/6 BOX, 1/6/8 BOX
RACE #6 $300,000 STAKES 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:18 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	3-5	2	Wicked Halo	T Gaffalione
PLACE	7-2	3	Fire On Time	M Garcia
SHOW	3-1	1	Yuugiri	F Prat
WILD CARD	12-1	4	More Than Vows	R Bejarano
ALTERNATE 1	12-1	6	Sharp Hero	J R Leparoux
ALTERNATE 2	30-1	5	Ten Rings	J Talamo
* EXACTA: 2-3 BOX, 3-1 BOX, 1-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/3 BOX, 1/3/4 BOX
RACE #7 $300,000 STAKES 1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:50 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	2-1	7	Youalmosthadme	T Gaffalione
PLACE	5-2	6	V Vs Dream	B J Hernandez Jr.
SHOW	5-1	1	Empire Island	R Santana Jr.
WILD CARD	7-2	9	Hot Beach	F Prat
ALTERNATE 1	10-1	8	Courbe	R Bejarano
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	3	Riperton	C A Torres
* EXACTA: 7-6 BOX, 6-1 BOX, 1-9 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/6/7 BOX, 1/6/9 BOX
RACE #8 $127,000 ALLOWANCE 1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 4:22 PM ET
BEST BET: #3 MUSICAL SCORE
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	4-1	3	Musical Score	F Geroux
PLACE	7-2	7	Hay Stack	F Prat
SHOW	9-2	6	Empirical View	J R Leparoux
WILD CARD	10-1	12	Star Wisher	F Arrieta
ALTERNATE 1	3-1	13	Mytown Myrules	E Morales
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	2	Storm Bay	C A Torres
* EXACTA: 3-7 BOX, 7-6 BOX, 6-12 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/6/7 BOX, 6/7/12 BOX
RACE #9 $300,000 STAKES 1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:55 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	2-1	8	Risk It	T Gaffalione
PLACE	5-1	3	Union Roll	G Corrales
SHOW	20-1	1	Liberal Arts	C A Torres
WILD CARD	7-2	9	Patriot Spirit	J L Castanon
ALTERNATE 1	8-1	2	West Saratoga	R Bejarano
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	7	Gettysburg Address	F Prat
* EXACTA: 8-3 BOX, 3-1 BOX, 1-9 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/3/8 BOX, 1/3/9 BOX
RACE #10 $400,000 STAKES 1 1/16 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 5:26 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	3-1	4	Search Results	T Gaffalione
PLACE	6-1	10	Falconet	G Corrales
SHOW	7-2	3	Le Da Vida	V Cheminaud
WILD CARD	5-1	7	A Mo Reay	F Prat
ALTERNATE 1	15-1	11	Royal Take Charge	R Gutierrez
ALTERNATE 2	5-1	2	Paulines Pearl	R Santana Jr.
* EXACTA: 4-10 BOX, 10-3 BOX, 3-7 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/4/10 BOX, 3/7/10 BOX
RACE #11 $120,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 5:58 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	2-1	10	Regulatory Risk	F Prat
PLACE	4-1	13	West Sunset	F Prat
SHOW	5-1	1	Intricate	T Gaffalione
WILD CARD	8-1	5	Aldora	J Loveberry
ALTERNATE 1	10-1	4	Clear Voice	C A Torres
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	9	Runway Lights	F Geroux
* EXACTA: 10-13 BOX, 13-1 BOX, 1-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/10/13 BOX, 1/5/13 BOX

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Belmont Park Hotlist - September 16

Sep. 14, 2023


By Matt Shifman and Bob Ehalt
Hot List Key:
A: A preferred horse to watch B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4^th or worst
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.
1^st race [Md Sp Wt, 6

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Churchill Downs Hotlist - September 16

Sep. 14, 2023


By Bob Ehalt and Matt Shifman
Hot List Key:
A : A preferred horse to watch B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches in the final 3 minutes and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4^th or worse
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.
1st race – (5) Mo for Us is a firster from Asmussen who seems revved up for a big effort. (1) Butterfly Queen is another firster who appears capable of a big effort. (7) Classy’n Connected has been working nicely since a useful debut. (3) Miss Claudette could have an impact in her debut. Betting strategy: 5 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-3-5-7. Doubles: 1-3-5-7 with 3-4-5-6.
2nd race – (6) Cairo’s Ghost was a troubled fourth in his debut. Was gelded since then and should welcome the added distance. (5) Big Skippy could be a factor in his debut. (3) Fayette Spirit rallied nicely late and adds blinkers here. (4) Clyde’s Got a Gun may improve off a third in his debut. Betting strategy: 6 to win, place. Exacta box: 3-4-5-6.
4th race – (4) Bango is the epitome of a horse for a course. In 18 starts at Churchill Downs, he has 10 wins, 2 seconds and 2 thirds. He adds to that win total today. (3) Strobe is highly consistent and looks like the main rival. (6) Necker Island will be dangerous on his best try. Betting strategy: 4 to win, place. Exacta box: 3-4-6.
7th race – (7) Youalmosthadme stumbled at the start of the Ellis Park Debutante and still finished third against several of her rivals here. She can prevail with better racing luck. (8) Courbe comes from a top outfit and deserves a long look in this field. (9) Hot Beach won the Debutante and gets Prat here. Seems a major threat. (3) Riperton rallied for second in the Debutante and will enjoy the longer trip. Betting strategy: 7 to win, place. Exacta box: 3-7-8-9.
9th race – (8) Risk It was an impressive debut winner at Saratoga and has the breeding to handle two turns. (9) Patriot Spirit may have benefitted from a quick racing surface at Colonial but his Beyer figure was solid and he merits respect. (7) Gettysburg Address won his debut and may have a say in the outcome. (4) Edified had a rough trip in the Saratoga Special and deserves a second chance. Betting strategy: 8 to win, place. Exacta box: 4-7-8-9.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Keeneland Select Pick of the Day | September 16, 2023

Sep. 14, 2023


Race 10 at Churchill Downs | Saturday September 16 | Post Time 5:26 PM Eastern
Locust Grove Stakes – Grade 3 | Purse $400,000 | One Mile and One Sixteenth | Fillies and Mares, Three Years Old and Upward
Analysis and Top contenders:
Le Da Vida (3) is tied with the most wins of any horse in the field with eight, in 22 races. Most importantly, her last three efforts, all since coming back from a two month layoff in May, have been the best of her career. She missed by a length in the Du Pont Stakes on Preakness weekend with a 104 Equibase Speed Figure before improving to a very strong 111 figure effort winning the $250,000 Lady Jacqueline Stakes in June, at the slightly longer distance of nine furlongs. Four weeks later in the Molly Pitcher Stakes she began seventh and was making up a ton of ground when the wire came, beaten a half-length with a 101 figure after bobbling at the start, which cost her early position. Jockey Cheminaud has been aboard for all nine of her U.S. races since importing from Chile, including all three wins, and rides Le Da Vida again in this race. She won her ONLY start at Churchill Downs, last September, and enters the race in peak for, with her Lady Jacqueline effort good enough to win if repeated as it is even better than the effort likely favorite Pauline’s Pearl (2) put forth winning the Grade 2 Fleur Di Lis Stakes here at Churchill Downs in July with a 103 figure.
Pauline’s Pearl (2) is next most probable to succeed but will very likely go to post at much lower odds than Le Da Vida, having won the higher level Fleur Di Lis over the track when last seen, as well as the higher level Grade 1 La Troienne Stakes in 2022. She was badly beaten when sixth in this year’s La Troienne, having finished seven of eight prior to that in the Grade 1 Beholder Mile. Having returned to winning form in the Fleur Di Lis, with a career best 103 figure, Pauline’s Pearl could be a factor if Le Da Vida does not run as well as she did in the Lady Jacqueline (111 figure) and more like she did when second in the Molly Pitcher (101 figure) or third in the Du Pont Stakes (104) figure, and that means we must consider Pauline’s Pearl for exacta wagers we make in this race although she is likely a poorer win bet than Le Da Vida.
A Mo Reay (7) and Falconet (10) are two with a shot, although less probable than either of the two horses above. A Mo Reay won the similar Grade 3 Bayakoa Stakes at this distance in February and won the Grade 1 Beholder Mile, with a 100 figure, beating Pauline’s Pearl handily. However, she regressed when fourth in the La Troienne in May, before finishing third in the three horse field Fleur Di Lis before being place second by the original runner-up, who bumped with A Mo Reay repeatedly in the stretch. In summary, she’s now earned 102 figure in three of her last five and those efforts may be competitive if repeated, but they also appear a cut below the best efforts Pauline’s Pearl and Le Da Vida appear capable of today.
Falconet (10) won the non-graded Groupie Doll Stakes on August 13, a career best effort with a 105 figure. As a four year old she may be able to run even better, and there’s no faulting her career record of five wins and four runner-up efforts in 11 races, just twice finishing worse than second. One of those was in the Du Pont Stakes in May, where Le Da Vida finished a close up third. Although she’s only run in two graded stakes in her career, finishing fourth in one and second in the other (for three year olds only), Falconet could be competitive here and be part of the exacta at the least.
Search Results (4) and Hidden Connection (6) can be considered for second on exacta tickets, and for third if you play trifecta tickets. Search Results has lost ground in the last eighth of a mile in her last three races and in five of her last seven, and appears to be a cut below where she was last year when winning the Molly Pitcher and Ruffian Stakes, although she has been second or third in four of her last five races. Hidden Connection made the lead in the Groupie Doll but was run down by Falconet. She had finished second in the Doubledogdare Stakes at this distance in April and in the Houston Ladies Classic in January and has a 3-4-1 record in her career, which are more reasons to believe she can’t win this race but could complete the exacta or trifecta.
Bets:
Win: Le Da Vida (3) to win at 2 to 1 or more.
Exactas: Pauline’s Pearl (2) and Le Da Vida (3) over Pauline’s Pearl (2), Le Da Vida (3), A Mo Reay (7) and Falconet (10).
Because it will be unlikely we can bet Pauline’s Pearl to win at low odds, we can play additional exacta tickets with her in the win position, as follows: Pauline’s Pearl (2) over Le Da Vida (3), A Mo Reay (7) and Falconet (10).
Trifectas: Pauline’s Pearl (2) and Le Da Vida (3) over Pauline’s Pearl (2), Le Da Vida (3), A Mo Reay (7) and Falconet (10) over Pauline’s Pearl (2), Le Da Vida (3), A Mo Reay (7), Falconet (10), Search Results (4) and Hidden Connection (6).

[ConleyPicks]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Emerald Downs

Emerald Downs - Race 8	$1 Exacta / $.50 Trifecta / $.10 Superfecta $.50 Pentafecta / Super Hi-5
Maiden Claiming $8,000 • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up• CR: 64 • Purse: $10,000 • Post: 8:08P
FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $8,000, IF FOR $7,000, ALLOWED 2 LBS.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Paceless Race. There is no true early speed in this race. * KEY ANGLES * MY YVONNE: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. POCKE T KNIFE: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. ITSTEQUILA TALKIN: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. H orse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. CAPE UNION: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
5	MY YVONNE	5/1	4/1
2	POCKET KNIFE	8/1	6/1
9	ITSTEQUILA TALKIN	5/2	6/1
8	CAPE UNION	7/2	8/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
9	ITSTEQUILA TALKIN	8	5/2	Alternator/Stalker	68	60	64.9	35.6	30.6
5	MY YVONNE	4	5/1	Alternator/Stalker	68	61	48.9	55.6	52.1
8	CAPE UNION	7	7/2	Trailer	0	0	40.8	55.9	50.9
2	POCKET KNIFE	2	8/1	Trailer	67	59	34.2	52.0	45.5
7	NADITA	6	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	58	43	33.3	31.8	21.8

Unknown Running Style: RIVER DANCE (6/1) [Jockey: Anderson Mckenna - Trainer: Freeman Scott], APRICOT BRANDY (12/1) [Jockey: Anaya Alex V - Trainer: Nunnally Jennifer], BELLAREIGN (15/1) [Jockey: Ortiz Neptali A - Trainer: Bozell Alan].

[ConleyPicks]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Lethbridge

Lethbridge - Race 8	Exactor / Triactor / Superfecta
Allowance • 7 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 57 •Purse: $6,800 • Post: 4:10P
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OR AB BREDS THAT HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 124 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. (WINNERS AND AB BRED WINNERS OF 2 PREFERRED.).

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Dominant Stalker. DOT AND DASH is the Dominant Stalker of the race. * KEY ANGLES * DOT AND DASH: Today is a sprint and the horse's last start was within the last ten days. Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. CLEVER CONNECTION: Horse is dropping into a race which has an Class Rating at least five points lower than the Class Rating of its last race. Horse is dropping in class, has an inside post position and isn't a Trailer. TEE CLASS: Today is a sprint and the horse's last start was within the last ten days. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. WE NEED V L TS PLZ: Today is a sprint and the horse's last start was within the last ten days. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equ ibase Class Rating at the distance/surface.
3	DOT AND DASH	8/5	5/2
2	CLEVER CONNECTION	7/2	8/1
6	TEE CLASS	2/1	9/1
1	WE NEED V L TS PLZ	10/1	10/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
3	DOT AND DASH	3	8/5	Stalker	60	57	66.3	56.6	52.6
2	CLEVER CONNECTION	2	7/2	Alternator/Stalker	55	53	43.8	43.2	36.2
1	WE NEED V L TS PLZ	1	10/1	Alternator/Stalker	62	51	0.0	45.8	38.8
6	TEE CLASS	6	2/1	Alternator/Trailer	65	51	39.3	47.0	42.0
5	BLACK WOLF	5	12/1	Alternator/Non-contender	49	41	58.2	38.0	28.5
4	STAY OUTA MY WAY	4	7/1	Alternator/Non-contender	68	53	0.0	32.9	23.9

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Woodbine

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 5 - Optional Claiming - 7.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $111000 Class Rating: 87

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OR THREE YEARS OLD CLAIMING PRICE $50,000. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JULY 16 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $50,000

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 2 HAPPY VALENTINE 5/2
# 5 GAYELETTE 4/1
# 3 SCOTTISH SYMPHONY 2/1

HAPPY VALENTINE is the top bet in this race. The speed rating of 86 from her most recent affair looks very strong in here. Have to examine solely on class, with some of the strongest class figures of this field. Has posted reliable Speed Figures in dirt sprint races in the past. GAYELETTE - Is tough not to look at based on Equibase speed figs which have been solid - 85 avg - of late. Change in Lasix (on Lasix) may be the secret to a major improvement. SCOTTISH SYMPHONY - Hernandez will probably be able to get this filly to break out quickly in here. Her 77 average has this filly with among the top speed figs in this contest.

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Gulfstream Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 6 - SO - 8.3f on the Dirt. Purse: $29000 Class Rating: 86

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $12,500 OR LESS SINCE SEPTEMBER 16, 2021 OR CLAIMING PRICE $20,000. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF TWO RACES OTHER THAN MAIDEN OR CLAIMING SINCE JUNE 16 ALLOWED 3 LBS. SUCH A RACE SINCE THEN ALLOWED 5 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $20,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 3 BATTLE CRY 8/5
# 8 DEMOGORGON 6/1
# 6 LADY JAE 4/1

BATTLE CRY figures to be the wager in here. Is a strong contender based on figures earned recently under today's conditions. With better than average trips to the winner's circle, Gonzalez should have this mare in excellent position to win the contest. Could best this group of animals based on the speed figure - 97 - of her last effort. DEMOGORGON - Has put up strong Equibase speed figs in dirt route races in the past. Displays sound Equibase Speed Figures on average overall when compared with the rest of this group of horses. LADY JAE - The Equibase speed fig of 86 from her last race looks respectable in here. With a nice class figure average of 97, has one of the top class advantages in this group of animals.

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Pimlico - Race #1 - Post: 12:25pm - Claiming - 8.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $27,000 Class Rating: 72

Rating:

#8 ALOTTACENTS (ML=5/1)
#4 FOOD FOODIE (ML=5/1)


ALOTTACENTS - Got to like a race horse who can make up a ton of ground in the stretch. This gelding came flying late sprinting last time out and should relish the longer distance of today's race. FOOD FOODIE - Farrior has this gelding spotted in the ideal race.

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 IMPETUD (ML=2/1), #5 VOTETHEMALLOUT (ML=4/1), #2 ADMIT NOTHING (ML=9/2),

IMPETUD - The speed ratings continue to drop, 72/56/50. Not a positive sign. Awfully difficult to play this racer when he hasn't been showing any signs of life lately. VOTETHEMALLOUT - This thoroughbred just hasn't looked sharp of late. The fig in the last race doesn't fit very well in this race when I look at the class figure of today's affair. Mark this horse as a likely underpriced equine. A closer like this one needs an early speed duel to set things up and he isn't likely to get one this time around. ADMIT NOTHING - In the last event this racer finished fourth. Doesn't look promising for his chances this time around.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Play #8 ALOTTACENTS to win if you can get odds of 5/2 or more
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [4,8]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Golden Gate Fields - Race #3 - Post: 2:47pm - Maiden Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $16,000 Class Rating: 74

Rating:

#4 I'M GONNA SHINE (ML=8/1)
#6 ADAPTED MEMORY (ML=6/1)
#8 OH ANGEL (ML=2/1)


I'M GONNA SHINE - I like to wager on this handicapping theory, a thoroughbred coming back off a nice outing within the last 30 days. Registered a nice turf fig on Aug 26th at Golden Gate Fields. A repeat in this race, and this one has a great shot to win. ADAPTED MEMORY - The morning line odds on this filly are higher than those of the other entrant from the shedrow of trainer Wright. Often the longer-priced part of a 'split' entry wins. Coming off a fourth place finish at Santa Rosa, some may pass this horse. I'm not. She just missed hitting the show spot, and has pretty good morning line odds today. Last race out at Santa Rosa this horse finished ahead of today's morning line favorite. Potential play if the public follows the morning line odds. OH ANGEL - This filly was impressive in finishing third on a slow track on January 13th. A signal that she should do well against these horses in her first turf try. Was in a Maiden Special race at Santa Rosa in the last race. That event had a class rating of 79 and she is moving down in today's race. A certain strong challenger.

Vulnerable Contenders: #7 CHERRY CHAOS (ML=3/1), #3 J AND M EXPRESS (ML=4/1),

CHERRY CHAOS - 3/1 is not enough of a reward to take on most any thoroughbred that has run poorly in back to back races. J AND M EXPRESS - The fig in the last race doesn't fit very well in this event when I look at the class rating of today's contest. Mark this horse as a vulnerable contender.

GUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - ADAPTED MEMORY - When a beautiful animal takes such a big drop in the Equibase class figure department, I always take a glance. I like what I see with this one and am making a wager on her.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#4 I'M GONNA SHINE is going to be the play if we are getting 4/1 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [4,6,8]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [4,6,8] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPER HIGH FIVE WAGERS:	None

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by Compubet Standard at Freehold Raceway

CompuBet Free Pick!

CompuBet 09/16 FREEHOLD
Prog Contestant M/L Points Pre Mud_Q X_>21 Form "I"Class Fav Adj SpdDriver Points
Race#: 2- - PACE 09/16 FREEHOLD
2 Moonwards Hanover 3/1 531.95 100 MUD 96.7 76.0 1:57.8 Ahle, Johnathan 17
8 Magazine Theme 12/1 482.81 90 MUD 80.0 74.1 1:58.0 Foley, James 8
7 Harry Hanover 4/1 479.66 80 53.3 76.0 1:58.2 Slendorn, James 12
6 Matters Most 4/1 470.91 90 63.3 76.7 1:58.0 Siegelman, Austin 20
4 Maybe Ned 9/1 449.91 90 33.3 73.0 1:58.9 Ginsburg, Vincent 17

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by TrackMaster Greg at Hoosier Park

P#	PP	HORSE NAME	M/L	DRIVER - WIN%	POINTS
RACE 11
5	5	FAMOUS FATHER	5/2	Plano, Rick - 14	620.98
3	3	BRIDGE TO JESSE'S	4/1	De Long, John - 16	615.98
4	4	ER KIM	8/1	Ferguson, Brad - 5	598.91
2	2	MAY BABY	5/1	Yoder, James - 11	594.73
8	8	TUG AND COOP	15/1	Ross, Jordan - 11	573.07
6	6	CASSIUS LANE	7/2	Oosting, Michael - 13	553.52
1	1	KID TYLER	6/1	Tetrick, Trace - 22	549.11
7	7	PILGRIMS IMAGE	20/1	Krueger, Matt - 7	513.83

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Northfield Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 3 - Post: 6:44 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 68 - Purse:$9000 - FILLIES & MARES NON WINNERS 1 PARI-MUTUEL RACE OR $10,000 LIFETIME. AE: N/W 2 PM RACES OR $20,000 LIFETIME CLAIMING PRICE $15,000

CONSORTIUM CHOICES
	# 7 LA MERINA 2/1
# 1 MS HILLFIGER 5/2
# 2 LILLY BY THE SEA 5/1

Hey, listen up! LA MERINA is the sharp wager if you like to win. Overall numbers look really good. Can't throw her out of the picture. Worth considering here looking at the statistics in the TrackMaster Speed Rating department alone. This filly has been squaring off against some of the most competitive horses in this grouping lately. MS HILLFIGER - This solid standardbred could get the trip to the winner's circle here beginning from the Northfield Park 1 slot. LILLY BY THE SEA - Overall stats look formidable. Can't throw her out of the picture.

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by Compubet Standard at Flamboro Downs

CompuBet Free Pick!

CompuBet 09/16 FLAMBORO DOWNS
Prog Contestant M/L Points Pre Mud_Q X_>21 Form "I"Class Fav Adj SpdDriver Points
Race#: 7- - PACE 09/16 FLAMBORO DOWNS
2 Sound Bite Hanover 5/2 553.75 100 78.3 71.0 1:56.1 Kelly, Colin 26
1 Ms Meaghan Sparkel 2/1 515.01 80 41.7 72.0 1:56.9 Desroche, Ryan P 12
4 Battle With Desire 4/1 513.98 50 X 21.7 IM 68.0 1:57.0 Coulter, Scott 21
3 Beyond The Moon 3/1 500.66 80 26.7 78.0 1:56.8 Ratchford, Todd 8
7 Blossom Onthebeach 6/1 447.04 80 10.0 78.0 1:58.5 Henry, Travis J 23

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by TrackMaster Greg at The Meadows

P#	PP	HORSE NAME	M/L	DRIVER - WIN%	POINTS
RACE 12
1	1	BELLAS TITAN	6/5	Palone, Dave - 24	448.12
8	8	OKIEDOKIESMOKIE	7/1	Macdonald, Anthony - 20	399.39
3	3	ROCKABYE FASHION	8/1	Bush, Steven - 0	394.51
2	2	HONORABLE LADY	5/1	Brown, Brady - 8	393.44
6	6	BARS OPEN	5/1	Wilder, Mike - 18	392.06
9	9	TOMMY BOY	15/1	Walters, Justin - 7	383.93
4	4	HOT ROD HARLEY	20/1	Zendt, Brian - 8	370.06
5	5	A ROWDY PUB PARTY	20/1	Indof, Jeremy - 11	368.69
7	7	JOLENE VOLO	20/1	Pantaleano, Jim - 10	311.16