Tuesday 9/19/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

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Horseshoe Indianapolis - Race #3

#5 Classic Kitten	Think she might be the right alternative to a couple of really logical players drawn further inside, as her only route try came in the debut and might not be an indication of her true two-turn potential. Capable.
#1 When's Forever	She can be tough in here while making her second career start with some potential upside here. There might be a little other stretchout pace to keep her honest, but she checks a lot of the boxes you want to see checked in a spot like this. All but the price.
#2 Rafaella	She and the rail runner figure capable in here, and the drop out of stakes company should help this one's chances today. The two-back run around two turns was solid and gives her an open-lengths advantage on Classic Kitten in that spot.
Race Summary	Classic Kitten has a lot of space to turn on Rafaella if she's going to land this, but I bet she's capable of something better going long now that she has a little experience under her belt. Midrange price as the third choice?

Horseshoe Indianapolis - Race #4

#7 Old Fashioned Girl	She might find the right kind of tracking trip in a race with a few players who should be done with their running by the top of the lane, and it wouldn't be a surprise to see her move up a bit on the local turf.
#5 Highlands	She goes first out for Brad Cox in a race that doesn't have a lot to write home about on paper, and it really looks like it's begging for someone who can finish a race off -- guessing she'll be ready to.
#1 Distant Lover	She didn't have a really easy pace-chasing trip in the Colonial debut, so there's reason to think she might be able to do better this time around. Still, I wouldn't want too short a price to land here.
Race Summary	Old Fashioned Girl might get just a bit forgotten on the tote in here while rising in claiming price off the Colonial runs. I bet there's still a little something better here.

Horseshoe Indianapolis - Race #5

#8 Rusty	Debuter draws well to watch things unfold, and I think there are enough other intriguing players in here to keep the price playable. Guessing he'll be an honest type.
#6 Quarryman	Not going to argue with anyone who will try to use this guy as a free space -- the price will be short, and he's supposed to win this -- but I'm not 100% sure he's going to be sitting on a ton of upside. Willing to consider others.
#4 Raccoon Rodeo	He stacked up pretty well with the locals last out after a couple modest Ellis runs, but he has a couple lengths to turn on Quarryman out of their common meeting here last month. Not impossible.
Race Summary	Get a look at Rusty on the tote and track ahead of this, but I think he might be ready enough to make some noise in a race that opens up a whole lot if Quarryman doesn't roll these.

Presque Isle Downs - Race #1

#4 Quiero Dinero	Think she'll find a pretty cozy trip while tracking the pace, and it wouldn't be a shock to see her a bit more tactical and professional this time around. Interesting.
#1 Lemon Curry	Got a thrill from this one last out when holding until midstretch at 12/1, and her overall form seems competitive right back with this group. Chance to wire them.
#6 Dark Dahlia	Her local form is fine, and she owns a couple lines that would probably handle these, but there are some awfully dull efforts mixed in on the page, so I wouldn't want to be here at any kind of short price to find out which filly is showing up today.
Race Summary	Quiero Dinero should trip out while tracking the splits here, and I am hoping she can sit just a touch closer today to keep tabs on Lemon Curry, who is the other attractive player in here at a slightly better price.

Presque Isle Downs - Race #4

#4 Aleman	Not sure he's offering much of a price after that useful debut run as Jose Ortiz signs on, but he is not meeting a ton on paper here and can land this with any reasonable upside today.
#1 Bee Well	He has faced some better company at Keeneland and Saratoga, but I would have liked to see a little flash of interest at some point recently before dropping in with claiming company. Better running lines keep him in the mix, but I'd want to take a good check on the price.
#3 Bundaburg	He was no real threat when a distant third in the common race with Aleman, and a similar effort probably keeps him in line for a very similar kind of share today. Second route start could produce some upside, but I'm not really seeing it.
Race Summary	Aleman turned in a decent debut effort going long, and that route experience could have him in line for something better this time around. Tighter today for the score.

Presque Isle Downs - Race #8

#2 Mr. Redolfo	He has been a distant runner up in his last two starts, but I like that he sort of handled the hike last out behind a guy who dropped more than 10 lengths on them at 2/5 on the tote. Let's see if that kind of tactical, but one-paced, effort is good enough without anyone like that winner signed on.
#11 On an Island	He has landed some shares with similar in the past, but he's short on excuses and will have to handle another hike here. Wouldn't be a shock, but I'd guess he's going to be an underlay in the win pool.
#3 Reckless Jones	He was in the mix for second choice on the board in that common race many of these exit, but he never got involved and faded fast after briefly trying to keep up. Second off the layoff brings out something a bit better?
Race Summary	Mr. Redolfo stepped up to this level in an unfortunate spot last out and caught a tough winner, but a similar effort would probably keep him in the frame early and give him a chance to plug away late to hold.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for FanDuel Horse Racing

PURCHASE

FanDuel Horse Racing - Race 8	Exacta / .50 Cent Trifecta (Minimum $1.00 Wager) / .10 Cent Superfecta
Optional Claiming $10,000 • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 67 • Purse: $23,500 • Post: 4:16P
FOR (REGISTERED BRED AND/OR FOALED IN ILLINOIS) THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OR OPTIONAL CLAIMING 10,000 FOR HORSES THAT HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JUNE 19 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $10,000 (CLAIMING RACES FOR $7,500 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ALLOWANCES).

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Lone Stalker. ON THE MONEY RED is the Lone Stalker of the race. * KEY ANGLES * I'M YOUR CAPTAIN: Horse has a TrackMaster "B" designation. ON THE MONEY RED: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. TRUIST: Today is a sprint a nd this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. BRIANS WAY: Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. FAST CROSS TRAFFIC: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff .
4	I'M YOUR CAPTAIN	4/1	5/1
1	ON THE MONEY RED	3/1	6/1
6	TRUIST	6/1	7/1
2	BRIANS WAY	8/1	9/1
7	FAST CROSS TRAFFIC	8/1	9/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
4	I'M YOUR CAPTAIN	4	4/1	Front-runner	74	69	75.8	57.2	50.7
5	RUN THE TABLE	5	9/2	Front-runner	55	50	75.8	50.8	38.3
7	FAST CROSS TRAFFIC	7	8/1	Front-runner	62	54	75.3	52.3	46.3
1	ON THE MONEY RED	1	3/1	Alternator/Stalker	69	66	59.0	56.2	47.2
2	BRIANS WAY	2	8/1	Alternator/Trailer	71	62	45.4	58.6	51.1
6	TRUIST	6	6/1	Alternator/Trailer	68	63	44.6	56.4	49.9
8	SKIP AWAY CARTER	8	10/1	Alternator/Non-contender	58	56	42.0	45.0	34.0
3	DIAMND CON SUERTE	3	7/2	Alternator/Non-contender	54	57	37.2	48.2	36.2

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Will Rogers DownsPURCHASE

Will Rogers Downs - Race 10	$2 Exacta / (.50) Trifecta / (.10) Superfecta / $2 Daily Double (.50) Pick 3 (Races 10-11-12)
Maiden • 330 Yards • Dirt • Age 2 • CR: 69 • Purse: $16,500 • Post: 3:45P
QUARTER HORSE 330Y, FOR MAIDENS, TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 124 LBS. HORSES THAT HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $7,500 OR LESS IN THEIR LAST THREE STARTS ARE LEAST PREFERRED.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * IFYOUFLYIN YOUWINNIN: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. MY TEMPTATION: Quarter Horse has a Fast Break Style designation and no horse in a post position next to it gets out of the gate fast. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. VANNYS HONEY WAGON: Quarter Horse has a Fast Break Style designation and no horse in a post position next to it gets out of the gate fast. Quarter horse has the highest last race Equibase Speed Rating. PAINT ME DIFFERENCE: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Sp eed Figure at the distance/surface.
10	IFYOUFLYIN YOUWINNIN	3/1	5/1
9	MY TEMPTATION	7/2	5/1
2	VANNYS HONEY WAGON	6/1	7/1
7	PAINT ME DIFFERENCE	4/1	9/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	RUBY RED SLIPPERZ	1	15/1	Slow	0	0	6.7	0.0	0.0
2	VANNYS HONEY WAGON	2	6/1	Fast	67	62	0.0	0.0	0.0
3	FED EX PRES	3	15/1	Average	71	41	3.6	0.0	0.0
5	PRIZED CONTENDER	5	8/1	Average	56	48	5.4	0.0	0.0
6	REDNECK FUN	6	12/1	Fast	63	50	2.2	0.0	0.0
7	PAINT ME DIFFERENCE	7	4/1	Slow	67	58	6.7	0.0	0.0
9	MY TEMPTATION	9	7/2	Fast	70	61	0.0	0.0	0.0
10	IFYOUFLYIN YOUWINNIN	10	3/1	Average	72	66	3.9	0.0	0.0

Unknown Running Style: VIKINO JESS CASH (12/1) [Jockey: Esqueda Erik N - Trainer: Chavira Luz], SKYLINE KING (15/1) [Jockey: Cruz Roman - Trainer: Ruiz Jesus Ruben].

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[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Fort Erie

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 3 - SO - 5.0f on the Turf. Purse: $24600 Class Rating: 82

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $10,000 OR LESS SINCE SEPTEMBER 19, 2021 OR CLAIMING PRICE $12,500. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE AUGUST 19 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $12,500, IF FOR $12,000, ALLOWED 2 LBS. (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $10,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 4 BODACIOUS MISS 2/1
# 6 SPARKLE SAMMY 4/1
# 3 MY FINAL TRICK 8/1

I've got to go with BODACIOUS MISS. Has to be given a shot against this group displaying decent numbers recently and an average speed rating of 82 under similar conditions. Posted a reliable speed figure in the last race. Can run another good one in this affair. Has been moving strongly in races of this distance, going 2 for 9 under similar conditions. SPARKLE SAMMY - Demonstrates the look of a money-making play, averaging a solid 79 speed rating which is one of the most competitive in this group of horses in this race. Is hard not to consider given the company run in lately. MY FINAL TRICK - She looks respectable in this slot and I expect will be on the front end or close at the midpoint. Displays solid Equibase Speed Figs on average overall when compared with the rest of this group.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Parx Racing - Race #1 - Post: 12:40pm - Maiden Claiming - 8.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $19,000 Class Rating: 56

Rating:

#4 CURTEIS (ML=5/2)


CURTEIS - Was in a $10,000 Maiden Claiming race at Delaware Park last time around the track. That clash had an Equibase class figure of 62 and he is moving down in this race. A certain serious competitor. This gelding is in good form, having run a nice race on Sep 9th, finishing third. This animal wins a lot of money per race around the track. I believe he can increase that bankroll in this event.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 FLORIANOPOLIS (ML=3/1), #3 CHIP'S FRIEND (ML=7/2), #7 SETTE STELLE (ML=8/1),

FLORIANOPOLIS - This gelding recorded a speed fig in his last clash which likely isn't good enough today. CHIP'S FRIEND - Could be tough for this mount to beat this field off of that last fig. Doubtful to improve enough to run a figure anywhere near today's Equibase class figure, so put him on the questionable challengers list. SETTE STELLE - Difficult to put any money on this gelding on the front end. Likes to land in the top three though. Could be tough for this entrant to beat this bunch off of that last speed figure. Improbable to improve enough to run a figure anywhere near today's class figure, so put him on the likely underpriced equines list.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Play #4 CURTEIS to win if you can get odds of 1/1 or more
EXACTA WAGERS:	None
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Skip
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Presque Isle Downs

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 8 - Maiden Special Weight - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $30000 Class Rating: 62

FOR REGISTERED PA-BRED MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 5 CHANGE THE HOUR 5/1
# 8 HUMBLE JOE 10/1
# 11 ON AN ISLAND 7/2

I've got to go with CHANGE THE HOUR. Has to be given a shot in this race if only for the very good speed rating earned in the last competition. Has garnered sound speed figs in dirt sprint races in the past. It's a good sign that Russell is using Martinez on this entrant. ON AN ISLAND - He has been racing very well lately while recording solid speed figs. Will most likely compete quite well in the pace battle which bodes well with this group.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Mountaineer Park - Race #8 - Post: 9:55pm - Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $7,800 Class Rating: 67

Rating:

#4 HAPPY YEARS (ML=4/1)


HAPPY YEARS - Looking at today's Equibase class figure, this thoroughbred is encountering an easier bunch than in the last race at Mountaineer Park. This colt likes to stalk the pace and the way things shape up here, he should get a gorgeous trip. I like this colt. Has the top earnings per race in this contest. You may want to discount that last race at Mountaineer Park on the soft turf where he finished out of the money. Should do well in this event on a non-sloppy track.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 PONTI PRIDE (ML=5/2), #3 ROSE'S PEPINO (ML=7/2), #7 MY SWEET LORD (ML=9/2),

PONTI PRIDE - Hard to wager on any thoroughbred to turn things around if there is no value to taking the chance. MY SWEET LORD - Ran a long time ago on April 24th. We should watch a race or two.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Play #4 HAPPY YEARS to win if you can get odds of 1/1 or more
EXACTA WAGERS:	4 with [5,7]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Skip
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass