Wednesday 9/20/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

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Presque Isle Downs - Race #5

#6 Rock N Reward	Debuter goes first out for a capable team, and I'm not sure there's anything to be super afraid of in this spot. Think a little debut tactical pace might go a long way here if he's got any.
#2 Hector	He has an experience edge on many of these and has already turned in a few pretty solid and respectable efforts. He's an obvious player here, but he has been sent to post at 7/5, 6/5, and 3/5 in his three losses so far, and he has also given away ground in the stretch call of every one. Your call.
#7 Rebel Warrior	He hasn't shown anything serious through two starts, but maybe the move in with the locals will wake him up a bit while trying the new footing. Chases and stays on a bit better today?
Race Summary	Get a look at Rock N Reward on the track and tote, but I don't really trust the likely chalk, Hector, even if he could well win this by three lengths.

Presque Isle Downs - Race #6

#7 Fortune Seller	Honestly not sure how the Rivelli runner is going to get bet, but I'm hoping it's enough to leave this guy at even a mildly appealing price. The barn is good with these types locally, and he's almost surely finding a softer spot today than he did at Saratoga and Woodbine to kick off his career.
#2 Baytown Bruiser	He goes first time out for a team that does okay with their young routers like this, and while I don't get too drawn into workouts on paper, I have a mild concern about nothing being published since the first of the month. Wouldn't be mad to see him win one for the Gov.
#4 Lou the Body	Debuter goes for a team I respect in almost all categories, but there are occasionally holes to poke in the paper form of their firsters going long. Wouldn't be a surprise -- take a look on the track.
Race Summary	Fortune Seller chased a next-out stakes winner in his debut at Saratoga, but he didn't back that up at Woodbine last time out. I think it's probably a pretty encouraging sign that he spins back in just 10 days off a flat run -- maybe it was just a clunker to toss and he's doing great.

Presque Isle Downs - Race #8

#1 Mr. Yasuda	He had been showing some hints of life in those starts earlier this summer, and he kicked home nicely to find the exacta for the first time in his career last out. Willing to take that at face value right now and give him a look right back.
#6 Yardman	Considered him on top, as he projects for a pretty cozy trip just in behind a few speedier players, and he should be in a spot to move and engage the leaders when the running starts.
#8 Giantsbane	His form is kind of hit or miss, but he has never been in quite this easy yet, and he's got a fairly honest ability to finish with a little enthusiasm. He can hit hard here on class, but I would be careful if the price gets short.
Race Summary	Mr. Yasuda is getting short on excuses, but he has never been in better form. That's not saying much, but it might not have to in order to land this one, and I think there is probably a fair enough pace to give him an honest chance to kick home.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

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Penn National - Race #1

#8 VALENTIN C (8-1)	Price shot if he handles the lawn for new connections.
#9 FAST FREEZE KAZ (10-1)	Barn hits at high rate with first-out claimers.
#10 TERRIBLEIGH (6-1)	Took some money, pressed pace until stretch fade in debut.
Race Summary	VALENTIN C is a live longshot if his improved form with blinkers carries over the turf. He ‘rallied well’ to finish behind the favorites in third two starts ago, then held second behind a 1-to-5 runaway in a five-horse field at Colonial Downs. Bet to win and place and play a 2-8-9-10 exacta box.

Penn National - Race #3

#1 VIOLENT PASS (10-1)	Proven 6F form, gets pace to run at, price attached.
#5 I SEE THE STARS (9-2)	Joined $100,000 Club with 5-1/2F romp at this level.
#7 KEEPING IT COUNTRY (5-1)	Upstaged dirt sprint checks with romp in second try for barn.
Race Summary	VIOLENT PASS (10-1) – Rallied to win 3 of his last 7 starts at Penn National at this distance. He lost all chance at the break two back at this level, then ran third behind Annamated Moon (9-44, $209k) last out. Bet to win and place.

Penn National - Race #4

#6 MAGIC SPIN (4-1)	Fast, game, solid record at Penn National and at distance.
#2 HEADS OR TAILS (8-1)	Maryland invader ranged up behind duelers, came up empty in 2-turn sprint.
#7 YES SIR ROBERT (7-2)	Idle two months since claim out of easy victory.
Race Summary	MAGIC SPIN has good speed, good recent form and doesn’t shy from the photo-finish camera. He shook a duel on the turn and just missed after a stretch-long battle with the rail-running winner. Bet to win and place.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Parx Racing

PURCHASE

Parx Racing - Race 1	Daily Double / Pick 3 (Races 1-2-3) / Exacta / 50 cent Trifecta 10 cent Superfecta / 50 cent Philly BIG 5
Claiming $12,500 • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 66 • Purse: $23,000 • Post: 12:40
(PLUS UP TO 40% PABF) FOR FILLIES THREE YEARS OLD OR FILLIES AND MARES FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE AUGUST 20 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $12,500.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Dominant Stalker. SCINTILLATING STAR is the Dominant Stalker of the race. * KEY ANGLES * SCINTILLATING STAR: Horse racing off a layoff of 90+ days and trainer's win percentage with horses coming off a layoff is at least 25. Horse racin g off a layoff of 90+ days and horse has run well in the past in its first and/or second starts after a long layoff. TUDOR PEAK: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the di stance/surface. BIG AMBITION: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. HIP HOP HOORAY: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourt h start after a layoff. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days.
1	SCINTILLATING STAR	3/1	7/2
7	TUDOR PEAK	7/2	6/1
8	BIG AMBITION	4/1	8/1
5	HIP HOP HOORAY	9/2	10/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	SCINTILLATING STAR	1	3/1	Stalker	72	68	76.8	65.4	61.9
8	BIG AMBITION	8	4/1	Stalker	70	62	67.2	57.4	50.4
4	BACK TO D' FUTURE	4	5/1	Stalker	49	55	65.0	48.0	38.0
5	HIP HOP HOORAY	5	9/2	Stalker	57	60	61.8	58.6	49.6
7	TUDOR PEAK	7	7/2	Alternator/Stalker	64	63	64.8	63.0	56.5
2	SO SWELL	2	12/1	Trailer	62	50	24.2	49.2	36.7
3	LA LUISA	3	15/1	Alternator/Non-contender	78	71	72.8	49.6	39.6
6	AKNA	6	15/1	Alternator/Non-contender	77	80	26.5	45.5	34.0

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Presque Isle DownsPURCHASE

Presque Isle Downs - Race 8	$2 WPS / $2 Exacta / Trifecta (min .50 cent) / Superfecta (min .10 cent)
Maiden Claiming $7,500 • 1 Mile • All-Weather • Ages 3 and up • CR: 66 • Purse: $13,000 • Post: 6:09P
(PLUS UP TO 30% PABF) FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $7,500 (LIMITED TO10 STARTERS).

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Paceless Race. There is no true early speed in this race. * KEY ANGLES * GIANTSBANE: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. YARDMAN: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMast er Power Rating. GIZMO'S MISSION: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Jockey/Trainer combination return on investment is at least +20.
8	GIANTSBANE	3/1	9/2
6	YARDMAN	7/2	6/1
9	SHARP PLAY BOY	10/1	7/1
4	GIZMO'S MISSION	4/1	9/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
8	GIANTSBANE	8	3/1	Stalker	73	71	76.2	64.8	59.3
6	YARDMAN	6	7/2	Alternator/Stalker	69	66	83.1	57.2	47.7
5	THREE O ONE	5	8/1	Alternator/Stalker	76	70	54.3	52.4	41.9
4	GIZMO'S MISSION	4	4/1	Alternator/Stalker	75	62	53.6	53.6	46.1
9	SHARP PLAY BOY	9	10/1	Trailer	70	47	90.1	59.7	51.2
1	MR. YASUDA	1	6/1	Trailer	72	63	60.6	52.0	42.0
7	ROUND ROBIN	7	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	60	18	94.7	31.7	14.2
10	SHAKEN AND SHIMMY	10	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	64.6	50.8	35.3
11	LOZ	11	8/1	Alternator/Non-contender	76	75	52.1	17.1	8.6
3	CALL ME NOW	3	15/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	25.9	25.9	7.4
2	SHEP	2	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	15.9	15.9	0.0

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Penn National - Race #4 - Post: 7:28pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $18,100 Class Rating: 87

Rating:

#7 YES SIR ROBERT (ML=7/2)
#8 NICE WEATHER (ML=6/1)
#3 ANNAMATED MOON (ML=8/1)
#5 ZILLION (ML=8/1)


YES SIR ROBERT - Took a significant drop in class rating in the last race at Penn National. Returning to a similar level right here. Should do well. NICE WEATHER - Cora is back for another event today after sitting atop this animal for the first attempt on Aug 25th and ought to know the ropes to this one a little better. You always have to be on the prowl for money making rider/trainer teams; we have one right here. Multiple trips to the winner's circle over the surface right here at Penn National. Maybe, another trip to the winner's circle in this race. ANNAMATED MOON - Look at this gelding's PP lines. With each contest he keeps getting closer. I like to play this handicapping theory, a thoroughbred coming back off a good race within the last thirty days. This jock and trainer have a positive return on investment when they work together. Three consecutive improved speed figs (77-79-81) make this animal a dominant contender. ZILLION - A pony coming back this soon after a nice race is a good omen.

Vulnerable Contenders: #4 DON'T LOSEMYMONEY (ML=3/1), #6 MAGIC SPIN (ML=4/1), #1 BEYOND THE BEND (ML=8/1),

DON'T LOSEMYMONEY - A pattern of deteriorating Equibase speed figures 84/72/65 for this entrant. Hasn't been on the Penn National oval in the last three weeks. Cause for some concern. MAGIC SPIN - Would have to get much more than the oddsmaker's morning line of 4/1 to wager on this horse. BEYOND THE BEND - Difficult to take this runner at these odds after the finish (third) in the last race. Unlikely that the speed rating he earned on Aug 25th will be enough in this affair.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Play #7 YES SIR ROBERT to win if you can get odds of 7/2 or more
EXACTA WAGERS:	7 with [3,5,8]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	7 with [3,5,8] with [3,5,8] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	7 with [3,5,8] with [3,5,8] with [3,5,8] Total Cost: $6

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Ajax Downs

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 5 - Stakes - 440y on the Dirt. Purse: $10500 Class Rating: 85

QUARTER HORSE 440Y, QROOI OVERNIGHT DISTANCE SERIES 3 S. - FOR NOMINATED THREE YEAR OLDS & UPWARD. 10 HIGHEST MONEY EARNERS PREFERRED. FINAL PURSE BASED ON NUMBER OF ENTRIES AT TIME OF DRAW

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 3 FIRST COLD WAVE 3/1
# 4 HANOVER HILL THERESA 2/1
# 1 JESS A DEAL 5/2

I've got to go with FIRST COLD WAVE. Could provide positive profits based on very good recent Equibase speed figs with an average of 81. Well above average win clip at this distance/surface. Pascoe has him trained soundly to break promptly out of the starting gate. HANOVER HILL THERESA - Could best this group of animals based on the speed fig - 79 - of her last contest. Her 75 average has this mare with among the strongest speed figures in this contest. JESS A DEAL - With a formidable 79 average speed figure at the distance, seems well suited for today's contest. Going in a short race gives this mare a formidable shot.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Thistledown - Race #8 - Post: 4:20pm - Allowance - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $40,100 Class Rating: 77

Rating:

#6 GONE IN A FLASH (ML=8/1)
#3 NEED TO KNOW BASIS (ML=9/5)
#4 BLAZING BURROUGHS (ML=12/1)


GONE IN A FLASH - Last time out, finished fourth on a track listed as good at Thistledown. Should do much better right here in this race. NEED TO KNOW BASIS - This horse has done very well at this distance. This gelding's last speed rating is good enough to win here, I'll bet on him back again this time out. BLAZING BURROUGHS - Got to appreciate a good work horse. This gelding's last prep was second fastest of the day for the distance. Ran a less than stellar race at Belterra Park in the last race. Racing without the off-track conditions puts this gelding at the top of my list of contenders. Dillion adds Lasix to this one today. I'd look for a significant improvement.

Vulnerable Contenders: #5 INTO GOLD (ML=2/1), #1 CASUAL ATTIRE (ML=7/2), #2 CONDEMNATION (ML=5/1),

INTO GOLD - Difficult to put any dough on this gelding on the front end. Likes to finish in the money though. CASUAL ATTIRE - Don't feel this pony will do much running in today's event. That last speed figure was mediocre when compared with today's class rating. CONDEMNATION - Could be tough for this entrant to beat this field off of that last speed fig. Improbable to improve enough to run a figure close to today's class rating, so put him on the questionable challengers list.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Bet on #6 GONE IN A FLASH to win if we can get at least 3/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [3,4,6]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [3,4,6] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Albuquerque

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 9 - Maiden Claiming - 5.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $17500 Class Rating: 50

FOR REGISTERED NEW MEXICO BRED MAIDENS, TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 120 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $10,000 RACE WILL BE LASIX FREE.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 4 AARON WHO 3/1
# 9 HORNS N HALOS 7/2
# 8 EVERYROSEHASATHORN 9/2

I think AARON WHO is a solid choice. In this field, this entrant is at the top in earnings per start in dirt sprint races. Fincher has a solid win percentage with horses racing in dirt sprint races. Will most likely be one of the early speedsters of the pack going into the midpoint of the affair. HORNS N HALOS - Will almost certainly compete soundly in the pace contest which bodes well with this field. Lately Fincher has provided wagerers with a quite good winning percentage with horses racing in dirt sprint races. EVERYROSEHASATHORN - Have to look at solely on class, with some of the top class figs of this group of horses. This gelding has some longshot handicapping angles I like to take a chance on.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Horseshoe Indianapolis Tip Sheet - September 20

Sep. 19, 2023


Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 63% of the time at this track.

RACE #1 $10,000 CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:30 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	9-5	5	Metallic Man	J D Ramos
PLACE	3-1	7	Flowerpecker	M Burnham
SHOW	15-1	4	Sacred Sky	F De La Cruz
WILD CARD	4-1	6	Idea Man	S E Bermudez
ALTERNATE 1	10-1	1	Sudden Shift	E E Perez
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	8	Shipshape	R A Prescott
* EXACTA: 5-7 BOX, 7-4 BOX, 4-6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4/5/7 BOX, 4/6/7 BOX
RACE #2 $5,000 CLAIMING 1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:01 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	6-5	2	Fredericia	J D Ramos
PLACE	9-2	4	Daltons Love	S E Bermudez
SHOW	15-1	7	With Cause	A Burgos
WILD CARD	5-2	3	Happy Sails	G Terraza
ALTERNATE 1	6-1	6	Wicked Ecstasy	M Burnham
ALTERNATE 2	20-1	1	She Ranup the Amex	M Franklin
* EXACTA: 2-4 BOX, 4-7 BOX, 7-3 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/4/7 BOX, 3/4/7 BOX
RACE #3 $43,000 ALLOWANCE 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:32 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	9-5	2	Good Forever	F De La Cruz
PLACE	9-2	6	Spotonjustice	A P Ulloa
SHOW	8-1	4	Butchs Best	M Anderson
WILD CARD	7-2	7	Wire the Cash	O Mojica
ALTERNATE 1	5-1	5	C. Js Storm	A Burgos
ALTERNATE 2	15-1	1	Cowboy Image	J K Court
* EXACTA: 2-6 BOX, 6-4 BOX, 4-7 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/4/6 BOX, 4/6/7 BOX
RACE #4 $34,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 7 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 4:03 PM ET
BEST BET: #10 CLEARLY COPPER
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	3-1	10	Clearly Copper	K J Asmussen
PLACE	9-2	5	Isle of Hope	E Esquivel
SHOW	7-2	7	Georgia On Esmind	R Diaz
WILD CARD	20-1	3	Margarets Lady	M Franklin
ALTERNATE 1	12-1	2	Nativity	R A Prescott
ALTERNATE 2	5-1	6	By Heart	J D Ramos
* EXACTA: 10-5 BOX, 5-7 BOX, 7-3 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 5/7/10 BOX, 3/5/7 BOX
RACE #5 $5,000 CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:34 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	6-1	9	Overthetopjustice	F De La Cruz
PLACE	15-1	1	Second to No One	E E Perez
SHOW	9-2	7	Pablos Sun	M Franklin
WILD CARD	5-1	10	Boulder Bay	R Diaz
ALTERNATE 1	12-1	4	Mister Macho	O Mojica
ALTERNATE 2	3-1	5	Cant Say Elly Mae	R A Prescott
* EXACTA: 9-1 BOX, 1-7 BOX, 7-10 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/7/9 BOX, 1/7/10 BOX
RACE #6 $20,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING 1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 5:05 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-2	1	Simply Jack	C A Emigh
PLACE	4-1	10	Ghost Bike	O Mojica
SHOW	9-2	9	Step On It	R A Prescott
WILD CARD	10-1	4	Bold Bali	T Heard
ALTERNATE 1	8-1	12	Electric Charge	A Bendezu
ALTERNATE 2	30-1	8	Action Seeker	E E Perez
* EXACTA: 1-10 BOX, 10-9 BOX, 9-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/9/10 BOX, 4/9/10 BOX
RACE #7 $20,000 STARTER OPTIONAL CLAIMING 5 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 5:36 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	2-1	3	Silver Moon Road	S E Bermudez
PLACE	9-2	7	Trikitraki	F De La Cruz
SHOW	12-1	4	Fenestra	M Anderson
WILD CARD	3-1	1	Optimal Courage	M A Perez
ALTERNATE 1	20-1	2	Uncle Earl	J D Ramos
ALTERNATE 2	10-1	9	El Rosillo	M Burnham
* EXACTA: 3-7 BOX, 7-4 BOX, 4-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/4/7 BOX, 1/4/7 BOX
RACE #8 $36,000 ALLOWANCE 1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 6:07 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-1	1	Nerves of Steel	J Talamo
PLACE	5-2	10	Altazor	J D Ramos
SHOW	8-1	14	Driven One	C A Emigh
WILD CARD	10-1	9	Circle Back Jack	R Diaz
ALTERNATE 1	6-1	11	Leave It to Kitten	S E Bermudez
ALTERNATE 2	6-1	5	Nip N Tuck	E Esquivel
* EXACTA: 1-10 BOX, 10-14 BOX, 14-9 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/10/14 BOX, 9/10/14 BOX
RACE #9 $15,000 TRIALS 400 YARDS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 6:35 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	4-5	2	Tachas Secret	F Morin
PLACE	8-1	4	Winner Spirit	A Hernandez-Lopez
SHOW	6-1	8	Cv Struttinforakiss	E Diaz
WILD CARD	5-1	3	Ajk Forgiven	J M Ruiz
ALTERNATE 1	12-1	6	Miri V	G Vazquez-Gomez
ALTERNATE 2	20-1	5	One Famous Amos	G A ONeal
* EXACTA: 2-4 BOX, 4-8 BOX, 8-3 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/4/8 BOX, 3/4/8 BOX
RACE #10 $15,000 TRIALS 400 YARDS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 7:03 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	6-1	4	Royal Sin	I Banuelos
PLACE	5-1	2	Streakindownthebeach	R D Pina
SHOW	5-2	7	Seize Greatness	S Jackson
WILD CARD	4-1	9	Rb Ec Mystery Zoom	E Diaz
ALTERNATE 1	7-2	3	Sundays Best	G Vazquez-Gomez
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	1	Runaway Beach Chic	L D Martinez
* EXACTA: 4-2 BOX, 2-7 BOX, 7-9 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/4/7 BOX, 2/7/9 BOX

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Thistledown Tip Sheet - September 20

Sep. 19, 2023


Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 74% of the time at this track

RACE #1 $5,000 CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 12:50 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	6-1	7	Vavite	V Severino
PLACE	12-1	1	Danzing Chick	R Halledeen
SHOW	3-1	5	May Beau	F Salazar Becerra
WILD CARD	2-1	2	Pearlintherough	D Smith
ALTERNATE 1	7-2	3	Fall Campaign	J S Toledo
ALTERNATE 2	9-2	4	Sky	A I Diaz
* EXACTA: 7-1 BOX, 1-5 BOX, 5-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/5/7 BOX, 1/2/5 BOX
RACE #2 $21,700 STARTER OPTIONAL CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 1:20 PM ET
BEST BET: #4 BLUSHING BETTY
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	8-5	4	Blushing Betty	E Barbaran
PLACE	3-1	5	Princess Halime	L A Batista
SHOW	2-1	3	Prospective Forum	F Salazar Becerra
WILD CARD	5-1	2	Ceviche	A Guerere
ALTERNATE 1	8-1	1	Jens Battle	A I Diaz
* EXACTA: 4-5 BOX, 5-3 BOX, 3-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/4/5 BOX, 2/3/5 BOX
RACE #3 $7,500 CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 1:50 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	7-2	5	Spin Doctor	D J Haldar
PLACE	5-2	3	Accurate	A I Diaz
SHOW	8-1	8	Classic Mo	G Rodriguez
WILD CARD	4-1	6	Traitor Amongst Us	M Cedillo
ALTERNATE 1	8-1	2	The Man Can	J S Toledo
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	4	Fu Roo	R Feliciano
* EXACTA: 5-3 BOX, 3-8 BOX, 8-6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/5/8 BOX, 3/6/8 BOX
RACE #4 $28,000 ALLOWANCE 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:20 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	3-1	3	Miss Easy	A I Diaz
PLACE	2-1	4	Viola	J Loveberry
SHOW	8-1	2	Honorable Woman	L A Batista
WILD CARD	9-2	6	Charlottes Way	L A Gonzalez
ALTERNATE 1	6-1	5	Coromandel	R Bowen
ALTERNATE 2	7-2	1	Immortallove	S Spieth
* EXACTA: 3-4 BOX, 4-2 BOX, 2-6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/3/4 BOX, 2/4/6 BOX
RACE #5 $12,500 CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:50 PM ET
BEST BET: #2 FALK
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	9-5	2	Falk	R Bowen
PLACE	9-2	6	Misterchilliwilli	R Feliciano
SHOW	3-1	3	Marsico	F Salazar Becerra
WILD CARD	5-2	1	Flawless Cat	J A Bracho
ALTERNATE 1	12-1	4	Fever Dream	A I Diaz
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	5	Napa Dude	A Guerere
* EXACTA: 2-6 BOX, 6-3 BOX, 3-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/3/6 BOX, 1/3/6 BOX
RACE #6 $7,500 CLAIMING 1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:20 PM ET
BEST BET: #3 BELLAVALENCIA
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	8-5	3	Bellavalencia	G Rodriguez
PLACE	2-1	5	Mangorita	A I Diaz
SHOW	5-2	1	Dancing for Money	J S Toledo
WILD CARD	9-2	4	Angels Destiny	H Berrios
ALTERNATE 1	15-1	2	Precision Prado	Y Aviles
* EXACTA: 3-5 BOX, 5-1 BOX, 1-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/3/5 BOX, 1/4/5 BOX
RACE #7 $5,000 CLAIMING 1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:50 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	9-5	5	Calendula	L A Gonzalez
PLACE	5-2	2	Opulent Ways	R Bowen
SHOW	6-1	1	Manhattan Lady	A Guerere
WILD CARD	9-2	4	Sweet Belen	L A Batista
ALTERNATE 1	12-1	6	Courted	G Rodriguez
* EXACTA: 5-2 BOX, 2-1 BOX, 1-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/5 BOX, 1/2/4 BOX
RACE #8 $40,100 ALLOWANCE 1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:20 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	9-5	3	Need to Know Basis	G Rodriguez
PLACE	7-2	1	Casual Attire	R Bowen
SHOW	2-1	5	Into Gold	D Smith
WILD CARD	5-1	2	Condemnation	F Salazar Becerra
ALTERNATE 1	8-1	6	Gone in a Flash	E Barbaran
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	4	Blazing Burroughs	J Panaijo
* EXACTA: 3-1 BOX, 1-5 BOX, 5-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/3/5 BOX, 1/2/5 BOX

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Churchill Downs Hotlist - September 20

Sep. 19, 2023


Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 70% of the time at this track

RACE #1 $16,000 CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 12:45 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	9-2	3	Shes a Secret	E Morales
PLACE	3-1	6	Goldblooded	F Arrieta
SHOW	2-1	5	Oath of Allegiance	T Gaffalione
WILD CARD	6-1	2	Dogwoodsmilliejane	R Bejarano
ALTERNATE 1	5-1	1	Tamaras Way	G Corrales
ALTERNATE 2	6-1	4	Social Mandate	D Cannon
* EXACTA: 3-6 BOX, 6-5 BOX, 5-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/5/6 BOX, 2/5/6 BOX
RACE #2 $30,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING 1 1/16 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 1:14 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	7-2	7	Wreck It Ruby	T Heard
PLACE	4-1	5	Choctaw Grace	E Morales
SHOW	5-2	9	Scarlet Miss	R Bejarano
WILD CARD	5-1	4	Dooblay	J Graham
ALTERNATE 1	5-1	6	Puckered	R Gutierrez
ALTERNATE 2	15-1	2	Rose Darling	Y Navas
* EXACTA: 7-5 BOX, 5-9 BOX, 9-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 5/7/9 BOX, 4/5/9 BOX
RACE #3 $54,000 STARTER ALLOWANCE 1 1/16 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 1:43 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-1	2	Long Crow	C A Torres
PLACE	7-2	4	Coastal Defense	R Bejarano
SHOW	3-1	6	Master Game	J Graham
WILD CARD	5-2	1	Treaty	F Arrieta
ALTERNATE 1	4-1	7	Sant Antimo	R Santana Jr.
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	5	Navy Cross	C J Lanerie
* EXACTA: 2-4 BOX, 4-6 BOX, 6-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/4/6 BOX, 1/4/6 BOX
RACE #4 $16,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING 1 1/16 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:13 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	10-1	2	Booster Shot	E Morales
PLACE	20-1	5	Scotch No Rocks	C J Hernandez
SHOW	7-2	4	My Brother Keith	C A Torres
WILD CARD	10-1	3	Spuns Son	D Cannon
ALTERNATE 1	5-1	6	Gordys Label	R Gutierrez
ALTERNATE 2	3-1	8	Creative Way	T Gaffalione
* EXACTA: 2-5 BOX, 5-4 BOX, 4-3 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/4/5 BOX, 3/4/5 BOX
RACE #5 $50,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:45 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	6-5	10	Stormquist	G Corrales
PLACE	10-1	8	Debt Paid	C A Torres
SHOW	6-1	9	Wecallemfuncoupons	R Gutierrez
WILD CARD	15-1	2	Wauhatchie	J Gilligan
ALTERNATE 1	8-1	5	East From West	C J Lanerie
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	3	Vino Fa Danza	A Achard
* EXACTA: 10-8 BOX, 8-9 BOX, 9-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 8/9/10 BOX, 2/8/9 BOX
RACE #6 $30,000 CLAIMING 7 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:18 PM ET
BEST BET: #7 BEAUXS ARTES
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	7-2	7	Beauxs Artes	M Garcia
PLACE	9-2	6	Mean Sue	J Rocco Jr.
SHOW	3-1	2	Mischievous Gal	E Morales
WILD CARD	8-1	9	Candy Kick	G Ashton
ALTERNATE 1	6-1	1	Wiki Lio	F Arrieta
ALTERNATE 2	10-1	3	Mended We Stand	R Bejarano
* EXACTA: 7-6 BOX, 6-2 BOX, 2-9 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/6/7 BOX, 2/6/9 BOX
RACE #7 $141,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING 5 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 3:50 PM ET
BEST BET: #1 COPPOLA
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	9-5	1	Coppola	M Garcia
PLACE	5-1	5	Bodenheimer	L Wade
SHOW	5-2	2	Shimmer Me Timbers	A Beschizza
WILD CARD	5-1	4	Vulcan	F Arrieta
ALTERNATE 1	4-1	6	Kavod	T Gaffalione
ALTERNATE 2	10-1	3	Johnny Unleashed	G Corrales
* EXACTA: 1-5 BOX, 5-2 BOX, 2-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/5 BOX, 2/4/5 BOX
RACE #8 $134,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:22 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	12-1	4	Bromley	C A Torres
PLACE	8-1	9	Retained	R Bejarano
SHOW	6-1	1	Briterdayzahead	C J Lanerie
WILD CARD	4-1	3	Blue Light	F Geroux
ALTERNATE 1	5-1	2	Elite Forces	G Corrales
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	8	Two Eagles River	F Arrieta
* EXACTA: 4-9 BOX, 9-1 BOX, 1-3 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/4/9 BOX, 1/3/9 BOX
RACE #9 $92,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:55 PM ET
BEST BET: #5 UP ON THE EDGE
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	7-2	5	Up On the Edge	A Achard
PLACE	5-2	12	Shimmering Allure	B J Hernandez Jr.
SHOW	5-1	4	Promisemeanempire	C A Torres
WILD CARD	12-1	10	Wee Bit O Mischief	M Chuan
ALTERNATE 1	20-1	6	Sterling Luck	J Graham
ALTERNATE 2	15-1	3	Chiquita Reina	G Corrales
* EXACTA: 5-12 BOX, 12-4 BOX, 4-10 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4/5/12 BOX, 4/10/12 BOX

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Churchill Downs Hotlist - September 20

Sep. 19, 2023


By Bob Ehalt and Matt Shifman
Hot List Key:
A : A preferred horse to watch B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches in the final 3 minutes and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4^th or worse
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.
1st race – (3) Shes a Secret was a distant second at this level but seems best here. (1) Tamara’s Way should welcome a return to a claimer. (5) Oath of Allegiance drops in class and fits nicely here. (4) Social Mandate adds blinkers and is worth a look. Betting strategy: 3 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-3-4-5.
3rd race – (1) Treaty has speed from the rail and will be tough to catch here. (7) Sant’ Antimo seeks a third straight win and should be a main contender. (6) Master Game was second in his last two starts and should be in the picture once again. (2) Long Crow should be a factor in the final furlong. Betting strategy: 1 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-2-6-7.
5th race – (10) Stormquist drops into a claimer and looks best in this field. (6) Waldrip is working nicely for his career debut. (1) Notorious Sixohtwo may wake up in a claimer. (5) East from West has showed some speed while training for his debut. Betting strategy: 10 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-5-6-10.
7th race – (1) Coppola missed by a head at Saratoga and makes amends here. (6) Kavod could perk up on turf. (5) Bodenheimer has speed and could be tough to catch. Betting strategy: 1 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-5-6. Doubles: 1-5-6 with 2-3-5-9.
8th race – (2) Elite Forces is undefeated in two starts and can make it three straight here. (5) Giant Mischief exits stakes company and should be the main rival. (9) Retained has been no worse than third in his last four starts and belongs in the exotics. (3) Blue Light returns to a sprint and should be a top contender. Betting strategy: 2 to win, place. Exacta box: 2-3-5-9.