Thursday 9/21/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

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Presque Isle Downs - Race #1

#4 Cupid Missed	She flashed some pace and faded late in that second career start, but I bet there is still a little room for better on the front end. She draws well to make a pace trip more difficult for either of the forward players down near the fence. Price might be OK.
#2 Maiden Lane	She has a big claim on top honors here, but I worry that the choice might be attached to her outside the entire way if she tries to have a go for it, and she hasn't yet shown that she's much for passing horses late.
#6 A Rose for Tina	Think there is a way this one sets up well enough for her to rally late while cutting back, but she'd probably need a decent pace battle to get all the way home.
Race Summary	Cupid Missed draws best of the likely forward players in here, and her more committed pace from the outside might at least throw a small wrench into the plans for some of the more logical players.

Presque Isle Downs - Race #2

#4 Chief Crazy Moon	Pace dropper has to deal with a couple other forward players here, but he has been able to clear early in recent starts and was overtaken last out by a guy who went on to win by better than 10 at 2/5, and the runner-up was back to win on top in this space earlier in the week. Might feel a lot tougher in the lane with this kind.
#7 Kenji's Empire	He's likely to be right up on the splits as well in here, but I'm not sure he's going to be at his best if the top choice is able to beat him to the front here. Obvious player sucked me in last time at a short price, but he's really short on excuses at what'll likely be another modest price today.
#2 Gizmo's Mission	He has made a couple of decent middle moves in his career so far, and he can probably get himself in the picture late with another similar rally. He's a really logical player on race shape if the top two go at it.
Race Summary	I gave Chief Crazy Moon a look here earlier this month, but he flashed his typical brief speed and folded behind a monster favorite who won that day. He finds a much softer group on paper today and might stick around better at a still attractive price. I'll also take a second try at adding #3 Piton on a couple of reach tickets -- he's making these mild moves a lot lately and can share at a big price.

Presque Isle Downs - Race #8

#2 Mountain Tree	He should be another decent price today, and he might get a decent kind of tactical trip today in behind a couple potential pace players. He never had a real chance when chasing a winner last out who went slow and unchallenged on the lead the entire way. Expecting better.
#1 Clemson Tiger	He ran a good one when taking a bump late that got the winner taken down in that last start, and he projects for a really cozy trip from the inside draw. Lots to like even as the price gets quite a bit shorter.
#5 Spettacoli	His recent running lines aren't too imposing, but his often one-paced kind of style will probably leave him in another good spot as they turn for home. Wouldn't be a shock on top, but there's not a ton of enthusiasm here for me. Most likely in the gimmicks.
Race Summary	Mountain Tree might get a decent enough race flow upgrade today after trying to finish into a negative race shape last time out. If he can spy the pace and move at the right time, I don't think he's impossible at a midrange price.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

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Penn National - Race #1

#1 GRAEL (9-2)	Well-spotted off claim, projects ideal trip from the rail in repeat bid.
#3 LUCKY RUNNING CAT (7-2)	Ran 1-2 on firm and yielding turf in last three starts.
#5 WARRIOR’S CAUSE (6-1)	Plays catch-me-if-you-can on stretch out in distance.
Race Summary	GRAEL launched a winning 4-wide rally while the favorite was bottled up in traffic, but he padded his turf bankroll to $128k and gets plenty of pace to rally into tonight. Bet to win and place.

Penn National - Race #3

#2 BESTSURGARDADDYEVER (5-1)	Validated bullet gate work with solid comeback try in allowance.
#7 REBEL RULER (4-1)	Good first gear, good record at Penn National, re-claimed by Kulp.
#1 SKIMBLE SHANKS (10-1)	Can rally into gimmick wagers at good price from the rail.
Race Summary	In a field loaded with stretch-out sprinters, BESTSUGARDADDYEVER gets the call in his second start after a year layoff and second with Lasix. He ‘finished well’ at 6F, beat 1-1/2 lengths by multiple stakes-placed Andiamo A Firenze (3-11, $305k). Bet to win and place.

Penn National - Race #6

#5 SAVE GRACE (5-2)	Been burning serious money, no excuse in this spot for new barn.
#3 COSMOLOGICAL (3-1)	Hit gate, dueled on the turn, held okay when passed at 1/8th pole.
#4 UNCAPTURED GRACE (5-1)	Tries to upstage string of four consecutive in-the-money finishes.
Race Summary	SAVE GRACE, the beaten favorite in 5 of her last 7 starts at various distances, runs for the cheapest claiming tag of her career. She should benefit from a good pace set-up in her first start for new connections. Bet to win and place.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Lone Star Park

PURCHASE

Lone Star Park - Race 4	Exacta / $.50 Trifecta / $.10 Superfecta / Daily Double $.50 Pick 3 (Races 4-5-6)
Maiden • 400 Yards • Dirt • Age 2 • CR: 75 • Purse: $18,000 • Post: 7:29P
QUARTER HORSE 400Y, FOR TEXAS ACCREDITED MAIDENS, COLTS AND GELDINGS TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 124 LBS.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * EYES LIKE AN EAGLE: Quarter Horse has a Fast Break Style designation and no horse in a post position next to it gets out of the gate fast. Quarter horse has the highest last race Equibase Speed Rating. SCOTTIE PIPPEN PZ: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. REVOLUTIONEYEZ: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
6	EYES LIKE AN EAGLE	8/5	7/2
5	SCOTTIE PIPPEN PZ	2/1	9/2
4	REVOLUTIONEYEZ	12/1	5/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	LETHAL CORONA BUG	1	10/1	Slow	61	47	6.9	0.0	0.0
2	SAN SEBASTIAN	2	15/1	Average	0	0	3.8	0.0	0.0
3	THRILL AND FURY	3	15/1	Average	0	0	3.9	0.0	0.0
4	REVOLUTIONEYEZ	4	12/1	Slow	87	60	6.4	0.0	0.0
5	SCOTTIE PIPPEN PZ	5	2/1	Average	76	69	4.2	0.0	0.0
6	EYES LIKE AN EAGLE	6	8/5	Fast	77	71	3.5	0.0	0.0
7	VP ROCKET RYON	7	4/1	Slow	62	56	0.0	0.0	0.0

Unknown Running Style: GERMAKIN (15/1) [Jockey: Duenez Luciano - Trainer: Lewis Arnold].

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Horseshoe IndianapolisPURCHASE

Horseshoe Indianapolis - Race 9	Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta / 50 Cent Trifecta / Superfecta 10 Cent Superfecta / 50 Cent Pick 3 (Races 9-10-11) 10 Cent QH Only Grand High 5 (Pentafecta - Separate Carryover)
Stakes • 350 Yards • Dirt • Age 2 • CR: 75 • Purse: $43,197 • Post: 6:18P
QUARTER HORSE 350Y, JOHN DEERE JUVENILE CHALLENGE FINAL S. - FOR REGISTERED QUARTER HORSES, TWO YEAR OLDS. WEIGHT: 124 LBS. SEE AQHA REGIONAL CHALLENGE SCHEDULE.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * CLEAVE: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. HG FAVORITE ENERGY: Quarter Horse has a Fast Break Style designation. IMMEDIATE : Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. AJ PURE GOLD: Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. LETZ GO BRANDAN: Quarter horse has the highest last race Equibase Speed Rating.
9	CLEAVE	9/2	6/1
6	HG FAVORITE ENERGY	5/2	6/1
7	IMMEDIATE	3/1	7/1
1	AJ PURE GOLD	8/1	7/1
4	LETZ GO BRANDAN	4/1	8/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	AJ PURE GOLD	1	8/1	Slow	72	66	7.8	0.0	0.0
3	FIONA SEIS	3	20/1	Slow	69	61	6.3	0.0	0.0
4	LETZ GO BRANDAN	4	4/1	Average	70	68	5.7	0.0	0.0
5	IZA FAVORITE	5	30/1	Average	60	51	0.0	0.0	0.0
6	HG FAVORITE ENERGY	6	5/2	Fast	74	71	0.0	0.0	0.0
7	IMMEDIATE	7	3/1	Fast	71	66	0.0	0.0	0.0
8	SHIRLEY TWO FOUR	8	30/1	Slow	0	0	0.0	0.0	0.0
9	CLEAVE	9	9/2	Fast	72	72	0.0	0.0	0.0
10	LUCKY FAVORITE	10	20/1	Fast	67	55	0.0	0.0	0.0

Unknown Running Style: JACK D FIRE (20/1) [Jockey: Hunt Aron - Trainer: Raper Ron].

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[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Remington Park

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 1 - Maiden Special Weight - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $34000 Class Rating: 70

FOR ACCREDITED OKLAHOMA-BREDS MAIDENS, THREE, FOUR, AND FIVE YEARS OLD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 122 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 2 QUALITY BLASTOFF 3/1
# 9 SMACKZILLA 4/1
# 4 NIGHT VISION 8/1

My choice for this race is QUALITY BLASTOFF. He has been racing soundly recently while recording very solid speed figures. Looks quite good against this group of horses and should be one of the leaders. With a solid 68 Equibase speed fig last time out, will surely be a factor in this competition. SMACKZILLA - Had one of the top speed figures of this field in his last race. Must be given a chance given the class of races run as of late. NIGHT VISION - Looks very good to be up on the lead at the first call. A solid 70 avg class rating may give this gelding a distinct class edge versus this group.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Churchill Downs - Race #6 - Post: 7:25pm - Allowance - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $127,000 Class Rating: 94

Rating:

#7 CANCEL THIS (ML=6/1)
#8 LITTLE MOMBO (ML=8/1)
#3 PISTOL (ML=9/2)
#4 TEN RINGS (ML=20/1)
#10 HIGH CLASS (ML=4/1)


CANCEL THIS - Don't often see a lucrative ROI like +27. This jockey/conditioner duet has done well together over the last twelve months. This filly is almost always on the board. I know the outfit is serious today. The filly gets Lasix for the first time. LITTLE MOMBO - Don't throw this thoroughbred out due to her last clash at Saratoga where she finished sixth on the soft turf. Expect better today. PISTOL - I like to bet on this angle, a pony coming back off a nice outing within the last 30 days. Recent Equibase speed figures show strong pattern of improvement. A repeat of that recent performance on August 26th where she garnered a speed fig of 96 looks lofty enough to win in this race. TEN RINGS - The recent bullet 59.8 work should put this filly on track for today's outing. Last ran at Turfway Park and finished sixth. Reviewing her handicapping information, I see she was close at the finish, within five of the winner. HIGH CLASS - It looks like Torres had to 'know' this filly on August 26th when riding her for the initial time. Back atop again today. This filly is in good physical condition. Ended up third on August 26th. This thoroughbred has increased her speed ratings in each of the last two races. That kind of progress is worth taking a look at.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 HUNTRESS FOR HIRE (ML=7/2), #11 THE GREAT MAYBE (ML=9/2),

HUNTRESS FOR HIRE - Didn't perform too well last time out. Probably won't make an impact in today's race. THE GREAT MAYBE - No success for this entrant in a short distance event over the last 60 days tells me that this filly is in a formidable spot Should probably pass on this youngster, she hasn't had enough experience to win this kind of race.

GUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - LITTLE MOMBO - When a pony has a big edge over the rest of the field in TM Power Rating, I make a bet.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#7 CANCEL THIS to win at post-time odds of 5/1 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [7,8] Box [4,7]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	[3,7,8] with [3,4,7,8,10] with [3,4,7,8,10] Total Cost: $36
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	[7,8] with [3,7,8] with [3,4,7,8,10] with [3,4,7,8,10] Total Cost: $24
SUPER HI-5 WAGERS:	[3,7,8] with [3,4,7,8,10] with [3,4,7,8,10] with [3,4,7,8,10] with [3,4,7,8,10] Total Cost: $72

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Penn National - Race #1 - Post: 6:00pm - SO - 8.3 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $19,000 Class Rating: 80

Rating:

#7 RECYCLE (ML=6/1)
#1 GRAEL (ML=9/2)
#10 RECONVENE (ML=8/1)


RECYCLE - Stand by this horse. No other viable pace gives this horse a strong chance at the winner's circle. Ran in the last race against a much better field at Parx Racing. The move down in the class scale should suit him well. Entered an Allowance race at Parx Racing last out and raced on the soft turf finishing seventh. Expect better right here. GRAEL - This campaigner coming off a good try in the last month or so is a serious competitor in my book. Have to give this race horse a serious look. In recent races, has posted the best speed figures on the turf at this distance. RECONVENE - Looking over this gelding's PPs I see that the last time he tried this trip he got a speed figure that would be good enough to win today's event.

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 LUCKY RUNNING CAT (ML=7/2), #5 WARRIOR'S CAUSE (ML=6/1), #2 LA PAZ (ML=6/1),

LUCKY RUNNING CAT - Looked like he was in good form on Aug 31st. Hasn't been near the track since then though. Not a positive sign. WARRIOR'S CAUSE - Even though victorious in last, didn't finish the way you'd like to see when stepping up to face tougher competition. LA PAZ - The effort last time around the track on Aug 9th probably won't hold up against stronger opponents when they turn for home. Not likely that the speed fig he notched on Aug 9th will hold up in this affair.

GUEST COMMENTARY: The Turf Man - GRAEL - Best average class rating amongst these horses. This mount figures to be tough today.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Play #7 RECYCLE to win if you can get odds of 3/1 or more
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [1,7,10]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [1,7,10] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	[1,7,10] with [1,7,10] with [1,3,4,7,10] with [1,3,4,7,10] Total Cost: $36

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Delaware Park

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 4 - Claiming - 8.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $13000 Class Rating: 59

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE AUGUST 21, 2023 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $6,250, IF FOR $5,000, ALLOWED 2 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 1 MY JO JO 8/5
# 2 SHE SO COOL 5/1
# 6 PURRFECT DANI 6/1

MY JO JO is the top bet in this race. Put up a strong speed rating last time out. Have to examine solely on class, with some of the best class figures of this group. Shows strong speed figures on average overall when compared with the rest of this group of horses. SHE SO COOL - Must be considered - I like the figs from the last race. PURRFECT DANI - Must be considered - I like the figs from the last outing.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Churchill Downs Tip Sheet - September 21

Sep. 20, 2023


Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 70% of the time at this track.

RACE #1 $50,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 5:00 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-2	3	Whatta World	E Morales
PLACE	2-1	2	Scrupulous	T Gaffalione
SHOW	5-1	9	No Violence	R Santana Jr.
WILD CARD	12-1	5	Interception	C J Lanerie
ALTERNATE 1	10-1	8	Summer Dance	F Peterson
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	4	Loveya Loveya More	J Gilligan
* EXACTA: 3-2 BOX, 2-9 BOX, 9-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/3/9 BOX, 2/5/9 BOX
RACE #2 $92,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 5:29 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	2-1	5	Astronomico	C A Torres
PLACE	6-1	4	Skypass	L Machado
SHOW	5-1	6	Tiz My Hero	C J Lanerie
WILD CARD	8-1	7	Spin the Boulevard	C A Emigh
ALTERNATE 1	6-1	3	Hope Joes Right	T Gaffalione
ALTERNATE 2	15-1	1	Wauhatchie	J Gilligan
* EXACTA: 5-4 BOX, 4-6 BOX, 6-7 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4/5/6 BOX, 4/6/7 BOX
RACE #3 $120,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 7 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 5:58 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	3-1	10	Mugen	R Santana Jr.
PLACE	7-2	6	Controlled Temper	T Gaffalione
SHOW	5-1	9	Fundamentally	C A Torres
WILD CARD	6-1	5	West Omaha	F Geroux
ALTERNATE 1	10-1	8	Class Act	G Corrales
ALTERNATE 2	6-1	1	Candy Landy	M Garcia
* EXACTA: 10-6 BOX, 6-9 BOX, 9-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 6/9/10 BOX, 5/6/9 BOX
RACE #4 $75,000 CLAIMING 1 1/16 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 6:27 PM ET
BEST BET: #6 AINT BROKE
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-2	6	Aint Broke	C A Torres
PLACE	8-1	8	Thestral	T Gaffalione
SHOW	3-1	4	Mytown Myrules	E Morales
WILD CARD	10-1	7	Steel Racer	G Corrales
ALTERNATE 1	12-1	3	Sad Cafe	C J Lanerie
ALTERNATE 2	4-1	1	Such Sounds	M Garcia
* EXACTA: 6-8 BOX, 8-4 BOX, 4-7 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4/6/8 BOX, 4/7/8 BOX
RACE #5 $120,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 7 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 6:56 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	3-1	9	Gin Gin	F Geroux
PLACE	4-1	4	Perfect Shot	R Santana Jr.
SHOW	8-1	8	Flight to Paris	C A Torres
WILD CARD	10-1	5	Magic Gathering	D Cannon
ALTERNATE 1	8-1	11	Platinum Minit	T Gaffalione
ALTERNATE 2	15-1	1	Miss Harmonic	C J Lanerie
* EXACTA: 9-4 BOX, 4-8 BOX, 8-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4/8/9 BOX, 4/5/8 BOX
RACE #6 $127,000 ALLOWANCE 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 7:25 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	7-2	1	Huntress for Hire	L Machado
PLACE	4-1	10	High Class	C A Torres
SHOW	9-2	3	Pistol	F Arrieta
WILD CARD	8-1	8	Little Mombo	M Murrill
ALTERNATE 1	6-1	7	Cancel This	B J Hernandez Jr.
ALTERNATE 2	20-1	13	Lakeside Music	V Lebron
* EXACTA: 1-10 BOX, 10-3 BOX, 3-8 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/3/10 BOX, 3/8/10 BOX
RACE #7 $134,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING 1 1/16 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 7:54 PM ET
BEST BET: #13 SPEED BIAS
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-2	13	Speed Bias	T Gaffalione
PLACE	6-1	10	Kings Ovation	M Garcia
SHOW	5-1	9	Masqueparade	L Machado
WILD CARD	6-1	7	Gasoline	G Corrales
ALTERNATE 1	12-1	12	Roman Centurian	J Talamo
ALTERNATE 2	10-1	4	Ethical Judgement	D Cannon
* EXACTA: 13-10 BOX, 10-9 BOX, 9-7 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 9/10/13 BOX, 7/9/10 BOX
RACE #8 $120,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 8:23 PM ET
BEST BET: #9 CONCERTED
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	7-2	9	Concerted	F Geroux
PLACE	3-1	3	Mo Fight	R Santana Jr.
SHOW	5-1	10	Create Trouble	T Gaffalione
WILD CARD	15-1	5	Spielman	J Graham
ALTERNATE 1	8-1	6	Heros Medal	J A Torres
ALTERNATE 2	6-1	1	Sahalat	G Corrales
* EXACTA: 9-3 BOX, 3-10 BOX, 10-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/9/10 BOX, 3/5/10 BOX

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Horseshoe Indianapolis Tip Sheet - September 21

Sep. 20, 2023


Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 63% of the time at this track

RACE #1 $15,000 CLAIMING 1 MILE 70 YARDS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:10 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	8-5	7	No Trust	J D Ramos
PLACE	5-2	6	Sheza Nut	S E Bermudez
SHOW	10-1	4	Mean Elenita	M Anderson
WILD CARD	6-1	1	Empire Sunrise	H Leahey
ALTERNATE 1	8-1	2	Bicarb Betty	A Burgos
ALTERNATE 2	6-1	3	Quite Whimsical	F De La Cruz
* EXACTA: 7-6 BOX, 6-4 BOX, 4-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4/6/7 BOX, 1/4/6 BOX
RACE #2 $36,000 ALLOWANCE 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:41 PM ET
BEST BET: #5 CIBOLO
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-2	5	Cibolo	E Esquivel
PLACE	9-2	6	Whosforjustice	F De La Cruz
SHOW	3-1	7	Circle Back Jack	R Diaz
WILD CARD	10-1	3	Hard Luck Justice	S E Bermudez
ALTERNATE 1	8-1	2	Hot Pastrami	O Mojica
ALTERNATE 2	5-1	4	Manuelito	A Burgos
* EXACTA: 5-6 BOX, 6-7 BOX, 7-3 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 5/6/7 BOX, 3/6/7 BOX
RACE #3 $41,000 ALLOWANCE 1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 3:12 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	2-1	2	Backyard Justice	A P Ulloa
PLACE	4-1	7	Killer Hotrod	E E Perez
SHOW	3-1	3	Scenic Justice	S E Bermudez
WILD CARD	15-1	5	Epic the Legend	F De La Cruz
ALTERNATE 1	6-1	4	Musty Red	H Leahey
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	6	Mystery Impact	O Mojica
* EXACTA: 2-7 BOX, 7-3 BOX, 3-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/3/7 BOX, 3/5/7 BOX
RACE #4 $42,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:43 PM ET
BEST BET: #8 CHANDANA
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	8-5	8	Chandana	R A Prescott
PLACE	7-2	3	Ekati Flatter	S E Bermudez
SHOW	9-2	1	Image Run	E Esquivel
WILD CARD	8-1	2	Verry Amelia	O Mojica
ALTERNATE 1	10-1	5	Brittanysgldnfaith	M Anderson
ALTERNATE 2	6-1	4	Mintchocolatechip	J D Ramos
* EXACTA: 8-3 BOX, 3-1 BOX, 1-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/3/8 BOX, 1/2/3 BOX
RACE #5 $20,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING 1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 4:14 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	3-1	9	Englished	E Esquivel
PLACE	8-1	4	Goodbetterbest	M A Perez
SHOW	6-1	11	Shes Magic	K J Asmussen
WILD CARD	12-1	3	A Star for Cora	A Centeno
ALTERNATE 1	9-2	2	Calm Cool	R Diaz
ALTERNATE 2	6-1	8	Swigert	A Lezcano
* EXACTA: 9-4 BOX, 4-11 BOX, 11-3 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4/9/11 BOX, 3/4/11 BOX
RACE #6 $36,000 ALLOWANCE 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:45 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	9-2	2	Caribbean Beauty	K J Asmussen
PLACE	7-2	1	Moment to Shine	J Loveberry
SHOW	9-2	7	Sweet Little Lisa	A Centeno
WILD CARD	6-1	5	Angel Express	E Esquivel
ALTERNATE 1	15-1	8	Liturgia	F De La Cruz
ALTERNATE 2	20-1	6	Seachrome	S E Bermudez
* EXACTA: 2-1 BOX, 1-7 BOX, 7-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/7 BOX, 1/5/7 BOX
RACE #7 $36,000 ALLOWANCE 5 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 5:16 PM ET
BEST BET: #5 MISS BEE HAPPY
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	20-1	5	Miss Bee Happy	C J Hernandez
PLACE	7-2	11	La V.	K J Asmussen
SHOW	3-1	3	Numero Seis	E Esquivel
WILD CARD	9-2	8	Caumsett	A Burgos
ALTERNATE 1	6-1	1	Belperron	E T Baird
ALTERNATE 2	10-1	4	Angie From Kulm	J D Ramos
* EXACTA: 5-11 BOX, 11-3 BOX, 3-8 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/5/11 BOX, 3/8/11 BOX
RACE #8 $34,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 5:47 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	9-5	2	Rivoli	C J Hernandez
PLACE	7-2	4	Time Andbeyond	R Diaz
SHOW	4-1	6	Runandscore	F De La Cruz
WILD CARD	10-1	3	B Adman	J D Ramos
ALTERNATE 1	8-1	1	Our Majestic	O Mojica
ALTERNATE 2	6-1	5	Mining Camp	C Orm
* EXACTA: 2-4 BOX, 4-6 BOX, 6-3 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/4/6 BOX, 3/4/6 BOX
RACE #9 $43,197 STAKES 350 YARDS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 6:18 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	9-2	9	Cleave	L S Martinez
PLACE	20-1	10	Lucky Favorite	G Vazquez-Gomez
SHOW	3-1	7	Immediate	D Villamil Bocanegra
WILD CARD	5-2	6	Hg Favorite Energy	L D Martinez
ALTERNATE 1	4-1	4	Letz Go Brandan	B Candanosa
ALTERNATE 2	20-1	2	Jack D Fire	A Hunt
* EXACTA: 9-10 BOX, 10-7 BOX, 7-6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 7/9/10 BOX, 6/7/10 BOX
RACE #10 $29,266 STAKES 400 YARDS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 6:46 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	8-5	4	Eye Live for Candy	R D Pina
PLACE	5-2	3	One Coldhearted Diva	G Vazquez-Gomez
SHOW	4-1	7	Country Celebration	M Munoz
WILD CARD	10-1	6	Sawyer Strange	L S Martinez
ALTERNATE 1	20-1	1	This Ladys On Fire	F Quintero
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	2	Ec Abella	B Candanosa
* EXACTA: 4-3 BOX, 3-7 BOX, 7-6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/4/7 BOX, 3/6/7 BOX
RACE #11 $35,530 DERBY 400 YARDS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 7:14 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	3-5	1	All Night Roc	B Candanosa
PLACE	8-1	2	Aprollific Jess	M Munoz
SHOW	3-1	3	Rogues Last Game	R D Pina
WILD CARD	10-1	5	What Else Is New	F Morin
ALTERNATE 1	15-1	6	Lota Cruising	L S Martinez
ALTERNATE 2	15-1	4	Braveaux	G Vazquez-Gomez
* EXACTA: 1-2 BOX, 2-3 BOX, 3-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/3 BOX, 2/3/5 BOX

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Belmont Park Tip Sheet - September 21

Sep. 20, 2023


Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 44% of the time at this track

RACE #1 $75,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 1:05 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	6-5	4	Mischief Joke	J Rosario
PLACE	9-2	3	Perliano	M Franco
SHOW	2-1	6	Mamas Dream	I Ortiz Jr.
WILD CARD	20-1	5	Wonder Wonderland	L R Rivera Jr.
ALTERNATE 1	12-1	1	Fratellino	T McCarthy
ALTERNATE 2	10-1	2	Lao Way	D Davis
* EXACTA: 4-3 BOX, 3-6 BOX, 6-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/4/6 BOX, 3/5/6 BOX
RACE #2 $105,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING 1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 1:36 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	9-2	4	Sheriff Bianco	J L Ortiz
PLACE	7-2	5	Kinetic Sky	M Franco
SHOW	6-1	6	Uncle Moonlight	K Carmouche
WILD CARD	2-1	3	Best Actor	F Prat
ALTERNATE 1	3-1	1	Business Model	I Castillo
ALTERNATE 2	6-1	2	Baby Yoda	J Rosario
* EXACTA: 4-5 BOX, 5-6 BOX, 6-3 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4/5/6 BOX, 3/5/6 BOX
RACE #3 $52,000 STARTER ALLOWANCE 1 1/8 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:07 PM ET
BEST BET: #7 MYSTIC NIGHT
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-2	7	Mystic Night	M Franco
PLACE	5-1	6	Cut the Cord	K Carmouche
SHOW	5-1	1	Portos	J Castellano
WILD CARD	2-1	5	Lookin At Roses	I Ortiz Jr.
ALTERNATE 1	10-1	3	Higher Quality	R R Maragh
ALTERNATE 2	4-1	4	Classic Mark	J Rosario
* EXACTA: 7-6 BOX, 6-1 BOX, 1-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/6/7 BOX, 1/5/6 BOX
RACE #4 $105,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING 1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 2:39 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-2	2	Kuramata	F Prat
PLACE	9-2	7	Call Me Harry	J Castellano
SHOW	5-1	1A	Mid Day Image	I Ortiz Jr.
WILD CARD	4-1	6	Winfromwithin	M Olver
ALTERNATE 1	3-1	4	Duke of Hazzard	K Carmouche
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	5	Main Event	J R Velazquez
* EXACTA: 2-7 BOX, 7-1 BOX, 1-6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/7 BOX, 1/6/7 BOX
RACE #5 $90,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 6 FURLONGS ON THE OUTER TURF - POST TIME: 3:11 PM ET
BEST BET: #3 MATERIAL WITNESS
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	7-2	3	Material Witness	M Franco
PLACE	6-1	7	Oolong Hai	J L Ortiz
SHOW	15-1	12	Millie Jean	J Castellano
WILD CARD	9-2	1	Madakets Arrow	J R Velazquez
ALTERNATE 1	6-1	4	You Only Live Once	I Ortiz Jr.
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	9	Isola	T McCarthy
* EXACTA: 3-7 BOX, 7-12 BOX, 12-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/7/12 BOX, 1/7/12 BOX
RACE #6 $25,000 CLAIMING 1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:43 PM ET
BEST BET: #4 SIX PERCENT
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	3-1	4	Six Percent	D Davis
PLACE	9-2	3	Salto de Tigre	I Castillo
SHOW	6-1	5	Durkins Call	M Franco
WILD CARD	5-1	1A	Two Thirty Five	J L Ortiz
ALTERNATE 1	8-1	2	Rocco Strong	K Carmouche
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	7	Burgee	J Castellano
* EXACTA: 4-3 BOX, 3-5 BOX, 5-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/4/5 BOX, 1/3/5 BOX
RACE #7 $102,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING 1 1/8 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 4:17 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	6-1	5	Freedom Trail	J L Ortiz
PLACE	7-2	4	Daunt	J Castellano
SHOW	8-1	3	Good Skate	M Franco
WILD CARD	8-5	8	Francesco Clemente	F Prat
ALTERNATE 1	4-1	1	Exact Estimate	I Ortiz Jr.
ALTERNATE 2	10-1	2	Tide of the Sea	K Davis
* EXACTA: 5-4 BOX, 4-3 BOX, 3-8 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/4/5 BOX, 3/4/8 BOX
RACE #8 $85,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:49 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-2	5	Perfect Munnings	J L Ortiz
PLACE	7-2	4	Mariachi	K Carmouche
SHOW	9-2	6	Radio Red	J Rosario
WILD CARD	10-1	7	Zeebear	J Lezcano
ALTERNATE 1	6-1	8	Big Engine	M Franco
ALTERNATE 2	10-1	2	Dont Lose Cruz	I Ortiz Jr.
* EXACTA: 5-4 BOX, 4-6 BOX, 6-7 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4/5/6 BOX, 4/6/7 BOX
RACE #9 $40,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING 1 1/16 MILES ON THE OUTER TURF - POST TIME: 5:21 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-1	12	Atlantas Acuna	J Castellano
PLACE	4-1	9	Zapruder	I Ortiz Jr.
SHOW	6-1	13	Just for Luck	J Castellano
WILD CARD	15-1	6	Thatsmyboxer	J A Gomez
ALTERNATE 1	5-1	11	Myles	T McCarthy
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	7	Utamaro	M Franco
* EXACTA: 12-9 BOX, 9-13 BOX, 13-6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 9/12/13 BOX, 6/9/13 BOX

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Belmont Park Hotlist - September 21

Sep. 20, 2023


By Matt Shifman and Bob Ehalt
Hot List Key:
A: A preferred horse to watch B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4^th or worse
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.
1^st race [NY, Md Sp Wt, 6

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Churchill Downs Hotlist - September 21

Sep. 20, 2023


By Bob Ehalt and Matt Shifman
Hot List Key:
A : A preferred horse to watch B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches in the final 3 minutes and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4^th or worse
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.
1st race – (3) Whatta World returns to turf and seems primed for a winning effort. (2) Scrupulous should appreciate a drop into a claimer. (5) Interception could pick this one off in her debut. (9) No Violence is a firster Asmussen who merits attention. Betting strategy: 3 to win, place. Exacta box: 2-3-5-9.
3rd race – (5) West Omaha is a firster from Cox who seems set for a big effort in her debut. (6) Controlled Temper was second in her debut and is the one to fear. (9) Fundamentally cannot be ignored off a second in her first start. (10) Mugen showed speed and settled for third. Could be tough to catch with the right pace scenario. Betting strategy: 5 to win, place. Exacta box: 5-6-9-10.
5th race – (9) Gin Gin was second in her first try for Cox and gets the nod here. (11) Platinum Minit was hurt by a wide trip and can rebound here. (4) Perfect Shot is an Asmussen firster who appears to have some potential. (8) Flight to Paris seems on edge for a strong effort. Betting strategy: 9 to win, place. Exacta box: 4-8-9-11. Doubles: 4-8-9-11 with 1-3-10-11.
6th race – (1) Huntress for Hire cuts back to six furlongs and will be a top contender from the rail. (3) Pistol was second in her last two tries and can complete the exacta again. (10) High Class has enough speed to be a factor throughout. (11) The Great Maybe makes her 2023 debut and is working sharply. Betting strategy: 1 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-3-10-11.
8th race – (3) Mo Fight missed by a neck last time in an improved performance. Gets his diploma today. (10) Create Trouble disappointed last time but can rebound here. (1) Sahalat will benefit from a rail trip. (6) Hero’s Medal could shine at a one-turn mile. Betting strategy: 3 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-3-6-10.