Monday 9/25/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-25-2023, 10:19 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Fort Erie

PURCHASE

Fort Erie - Race 4	WPS, Exactor, 20 Cent Triactor, Daily Double, 20 Cent Superfecta 20 Cent Pick 3 (Races 4-5-6), 20 Cent Guaranteed $10,000 Pick 5 (Races 4-5-6-7-8)
Claiming $4,000 • 7 Furlongs • Turf • Ages 3 and up • CR: 75 • Purse: $13,500 • Post: 4:24P
FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE AUGUST 25 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,000 (LIMITED TO 10 STARTERS)(*PLUS UP TO $540 ONTARIO BRED/ONTARIO SIRED BREEDERS AWARDS). IF DEEMED INADVISABLE BY MANAGEMENT TO RUN ON THE TURF, THIS RACE WILL BE RUN AT A DISTANCE OF SIX AND ONE HALF FURLONGS ON THE MAIN TRACK.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * CRUMLIN BIRD: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt o r turf) is at least 50. Today is a sprint and the horse's last start was within the last ten days. KHOZZY VALINTINE: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Today is a sprint and the horse is carrying at least 120 lbs. SAVVY'S SISTER: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. REIGN BY REIN: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating.
3	CRUMLIN BIRD	4/1	5/1
8	KHOZZY VALINTINE	8/5	6/1
5	SAVVY'S SISTER	10/1	7/1
4	REIGN BY REIN	8/1	8/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
4	REIGN BY REIN	4	8/1	Front-runner	72	68	92.9	55.0	47.5
3	CRUMLIN BIRD	3	4/1	Front-runner	70	71	78.8	58.6	52.6
7	AWILDAS TREASURE	7	2/1	Stalker	78	68	66.4	62.6	53.1
1	SEEDS OF GRANDEUR	1	3/1	Stalker	60	58	25.0	55.2	42.2
2	ROAD MAP	2	8/1	Alternator/Stalker	68	65	55.2	58.4	46.9
8	KHOZZY VALINTINE	8	8/5	Trailer	76	76	59.2	72.4	68.4
5	SAVVY'S SISTER	5	10/1	Alternator/Trailer	76	71	50.4	62.6	55.1
6	SILENT BUT VIOLENT	6	6/1	Alternator/Non-contender	67	61	69.2	54.8	42.8

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-25-2023, 10:20 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Presque Isle DownsPURCHASE

Presque Isle Downs - Race 5	$2 WPS / $2 Exacta / Trifecta (min .50 cent) / Superfecta (min .10 cent) $2 Daily Double / Pick 3 (min .50 cent) (Races 5-6-7) Pick 4 (min .50 cent) (Races 5-6-7-8)
Claiming $25,000 • 1 Mile • All-Weather • Ages 3 and up • CR: 90 • Purse: $21,000 • Post: 4:48P
(PLUS UP TO 30% PABF) FOR THREE YEAR OLDS OR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE AUGUST 25 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $25,000 (CLAIMING RACES FOR $15,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ESTIMATING ALLOWANCES) (LIMITED TO10 STARTERS).

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Dominant Stalker. AMERICA'S GUEST is the Dominant Stalker of the race. * KEY ANGLES * AMERICA'S GUEST: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has the hig hest TrackMaster Power Rating. DAWGMENTALITY: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
3	AMERICA'S GUEST	5/1	3/1
6	DAWGMENTALITY	3/1	7/2

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
2	SHY DA RUNNER	2	8/1	Front-runner	80	79	65.3	50.9	38.9
4	NIGHT RIDE	4	8/1	Alternator/Front-runner	90	68	61.8	77.6	67.1
6	DAWGMENTALITY	6	3/1	Stalker	81	83	78.2	82.2	77.7
7	STRICTLY CONFIDENT	7	5/2	Stalker	88	90	57.8	68.3	59.3
3	AMERICA'S GUEST	3	5/1	Alternator/Stalker	90	86	83.8	84.4	79.4
5	GOOSE HUNTER	5	12/1	Alternator/Stalker	90	68	38.4	65.3	54.8
1	RICHARD HOOTY	1	12/1	Trailer	85	63	47.4	71.8	61.8
8	GAMBLING TZAR	8	4/1	Alternator/Non-contender	83	71	72.6	65.8	56.8

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-25-2023, 10:20 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Grants Pass

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 3 - Allowance - 5.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $9500 Class Rating: 68

FOR OREGON BRED THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 124 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 3 BEING A BOSS 3/1
# 7 SNICKER'N DAN 6/1
# 5 MR MEMPHIS 4/1

I think BEING A BOSS is a solid choice. Has to be carefully examined as he drops to compete against this easier bunch. Have to look at solely on class, with some of the most competitive class numbers of this group. The speed figure of 67 from his last affair looks very good in here. SNICKER'N DAN - Overall the Equibase Speed Figs of this animal look strong in this contest. Muro will most likely be able to get this gelding to break out early for this race. MR MEMPHIS - Has been racing in the most competitive company of the field recently. Is a solid choice - given the 69 speed rating from his most recent race.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-25-2023, 10:21 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Thistledown - Race #3 - Post: 1:50pm - SO - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $20,000 Class Rating: 80

Rating:

#1 YEARS AGO (ML=2/1)

YEARS AGO - Ran a nice speed rating of 87 on August 17th. Followed it up with another Equibase speed figure of 81. Either effort is good enough to win this race. This filly is in good condition. Finished first on Sep 6th. As the only speedball in the race, I expect this filly to be long gone. This filly's last speed figure is strong enough to prove victorious here, I'll bet on her right back this time out. You have to bet this horse at a location she likes. There's nothing like being comfortable out on the track when it's time to race.

Vulnerable Contenders: #4 MAMA LOU (ML=3/1), #3 RIPLEY EFFECT (ML=7/2), #7 BACKSPLASH (ML=5/1),

MAMA LOU - I cannot play this habitual non-winner. Gets the assignment completed infrequently. RIPLEY EFFECT - This come from behinder will probably be rolling fast from far back much too late to make a mark in this race. BACKSPLASH - This closer will probably be rolling down the lane much too late to make an impression in this event.

GUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - YEARS AGO - This filly is at the top in the group in earnings per start. I'm betting on this one.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Play #1 YEARS AGO to win if you can get odds of 1/1 or more
EXACTA WAGERS:	1 with [3,4]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Skip
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-25-2023, 10:22 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Golden Gate Fields

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 7 - Claiming - 8.0f on the Turf. Purse: $27000 Class Rating: 106

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE JULY 15 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $32,000, IF FOR $30,000, ALLOWED 2 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 5 KENNEBEC 5/2
# 3 KINGMEISTER 5/1
# 4 HARMON 10/1

KENNEBEC is the most competitive bet in this race. Overall the Equibase Speed Figures of this equine look respectable in this contest. The speed rating of 106 from his most recent contest looks solid in here. Seems to have a solid class edge based on the recent company kept. KINGMEISTER - Looks competitive to be up near the lead at the first call. Must be given a shot - I like the numbers from the last contest. HARMON - Going off blinkers can produce noticeable speed increases. Could go off at a nice price and has some positive attributes going for him.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-25-2023, 10:22 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Mountaineer Park - Race #8 - Post: 9:55pm - Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $7,900 Class Rating: 79

Rating:

#4 FULL OF LUCK (CHI) (ML=5/2)
#7 ATTORNEY TIM (ML=7/2)

FULL OF LUCK (CHI) - This is a classic 'Lone Front-runner' scenario. If Yaranga gets him out of the gate cleanly it'll likely be smooth sailing. This gelding's last speed fig garnered on September 5th is number one in last race Equibase speed figs. I like to invest in this handicapping theory, a thoroughbred coming back off a sharp outing within the last 30 days. ATTORNEY TIM - Faced tougher last time out at Presque Isle Downs. Based on Equibase class ratings, this is a weaker field, so I will put this thoroughbred on my list of choice plays. This horse collects a lot of cash per race. Uppermost in this contest.

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 BRIAR JUMPER (ML=9/2), #1 UNION STATION (ML=6/1), #8 BIG FALCON ROCKET (ML=8/1),

BRIAR JUMPER - Granted the last race was strong, finishing third. The lack of any recent activity raises some concerns though. I can't play this repeated non-winner. Gets the job fulfilled from time to time. UNION STATION - 6/1 odds isn't enough for this participant when looking at the most recent outings. This gelding probably needs a more conducive pace situation to make his late move. BIG FALCON ROCKET - If you keep betting these sort of 'bridesmaid' types, you're going to be dissatisfied most every time. No wins for this vulnerable equine at Mountaineer Park. Not probable that the speed fig he recorded on Sep 12th will hold up in this event.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Bet on #4 FULL OF LUCK (CHI) to win if you can get at least 3/2 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [4,7]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	None
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip

Monday 9/25/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

Monday 9/25/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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