Friday 9/29/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-29-2023, 07:16 AM

Jeff Siegel's What You Need to Know - Santa Anita - 9/29/23

September 29, 2023
“What You Need to Know” – Santa Anita
by Jeff Siegel, 1stbet.com Handicapper & Analyst

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, & Wagering Strategies identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play

__________________________________________________ ____________________________
RACE 1: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 6-Give Me the Lute
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 4-Margot’s Boy.

Forecast: Though he’s hardly one to trust (winless in eight starts over the local course with six off-the-board finishes), Give Me the Lute appears to have found a proper spot in this six furlong turf dash for older $32,000 claimers. He’s a first-off-the-claim play for a barn that has good stats with this angle and shows recent speed figures that make him a solid fit. The always popular route-to-sprint maneuver is evident as well, plus he retains top rider Juan Hernandez, so this former grass sprint stakes winner should have every chance to regain his winning form in a below standard race for the level.

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RACE 2: Post: 1:32 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 1-Poetica
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 5-Kristi’s Tiger.

Forecast:Poetica broke thru the gate prior to the start but then did something that you rarely see when this happens – she won, anyway – and did so like a filly who can successfully take the class leap from maiden to the first level allowance ranks. The lightly raced daughter of Speightstown switches to top rider Juan Hernandez, and with rising speed figures in each of her previous three outings the Peter Eurton-trained sophomore can be expected to produce another forward move. She’s listed as the second choice on the morning line at 5/2 and would offer extreme value at that price, but we suspect she’ll go favored.

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RACE 3: Post: 2:06 PT Grade: C+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 1-Grand Tiger
Backups/savers/Underneath: 5-Man O Rose.

Forecast: Grand Tiger has plenty of zip but suspect stamina, so while he’s clearly the controlling speed in this six furlong state-bred maiden turf sprint the son of Smiling Tiger may find today’s extra furlong especially taxing. Still, the Brian Koriner-trained gelding is the top pick by default in a race that offers no other viable alternative. He’s the 2-1 morning line favorite and doesn’t really offer a whole lot of wagering value at that price, so tread lightly.

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RACE 4: Post: 2:36 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 5-Sweet Hello
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.

Forecast: Sweet Hello had no excuse when squandering a “lone f” trip at this trip and level at Del Mar last month but not much more will be needed to wire this modest restricted (nw-2) $16,000 claiming field of older fillies and mares. The daughter of Dazing Candy likes this main track (a win, two seconds, two thirds in six starts), and in a race lacking in effective closers the Bob Hess, Jr.-trained filly should be tough to catch as the no value 8/5 morning line favorite.

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RACE 5: Post: 3:06 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 2-Potito; 9-Nestuka; 1-High King.
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.

Forecast This Cal-bred turf sprint for maiden juveniles came up extremely weak, so nothing would surprise. Best advice is to include as many as your budget allows. Potito had excuses in both of his starts and today adds blinkers, so perhaps we’ve haven’t seen his best quite yet. The Carla Gaines-trained son of Grazen flashed good speed in his debut before weakening; against this group a similar effort could carry him a long way. At 7/2 on the morning line, he’s as good as any on paper. Nestuka wasn’t terrible in his first start when finishing fifth after a wide trip on dirt at Del Mar, and as a son of Grazen he shouldn’t have any issue with the switch to grass. High King hails from a barn whose first timers often run better than they work. The Tim Yakteen-trained colt may have a look if he leaves cleanly from the rail.

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RACE 6: Post: 3:36 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 7-Shes Just Fluffy
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 5-Just Is.

Forecast: Shes Just Fluffy had a prior run last winter at Santa Anita when trained by Jonathan Wong and returns for new conditioner Mark Glatt with a series of recent workouts that indicate she’s likely a better type this time around. Comfortably drawn outside in this soft maiden $50,000 maiden claiming sprint for state-bred fillies and mares, she figures to settle just off the pace outside and then have every chance from the quarter pole home. Also, her third place effort in a similar affair in her debut charts well enough to win, so at 3-1 on the morning line there’s some value to be found in the win pool and in the various rolling exotics.

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RACE 7: Post: 4:06 ET Grade: C+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 10-Numero Dix; 4-Lone Scout.
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 6-Brother Reid.

Forecast: This restricted (nw-2) $32,000 claiming turf miler for older horses is a bit of a mess. Runner-up in a similar affair on grass at this distance at Del Mar, Numero Dix looks best on paper, though his extreme outside draw is a cause for concern. The Jeff Mullins-trained gelding is winless in six starts since being imported from France, but the veteran gelding earned the type of number than can win at this level in his most recent appearance when finishing second with a good late kick despite a less-than-ideal trip. The barn’s go-to rider Hector Berrios stays aboard and knows him well. Lone Scout has only one win from 12 starts but at least that victory was accomplished over the local lawn. He’s a one paced grinder without tactical speed but has several back speed figures that put him in the fray. Small ticket players and can sink or swim with these two, but if you can afford to go deeper, feel free to do so.

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RACE 8: Post: 4:36 PT Grade: X
Main ticket (in order of preference): 5-Eda
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 4-Elm Drive.

Forecast: It’s really hard to get past Eda in this year’s renewal of the Chillingworth Stakes-G3 for sprinting fillies and mares. The daughter of Munnings has won seven straight, eight of 10 overall, and is a perfect four-for-four over the Santa Anita main track. She often makes hard work of it – her combined margin of victory in her last five wins totals less than three lengths – but she always seems to find a way to get there. The Bob Baffert-trained filly should draft into a cozy outside stalking position and have dead aim and every chance from the quarter pole home.

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RACE 9: Post: 5:06- PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 2-Six Magpies
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 6-Belmont Bill

Forecast: Six Magpies has been away since last November and has raced only twice overall, so there’s plenty of room for improvement and not much will be needed in this modest maiden $50,000 claimer for older horses over a mile on grass. The Neil Drysdale-trained import has looked solid in morning drills, will add blinkers and Lasix, and earned a speed figure in his lone U.S. outing vs. straight maidens at Del Mar that should be good enough to beat this field. Additionally, his lone effort in Ireland (third of 14 with a strong 85 Timeform Rating) was better than par. He’s 4-1 on the morning line and seems like a reasonable gamble at or near that price.

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**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-29-2023, 07:17 AM

Al Cimaglia: Hawthorne Racecourse Late Pick 4 Analysis

September 29, 2023 | By Al Cimaglia
Hawthorne Racecourse begins the weekend with a compact 8-race card. The 0.50 Late Pick 4 starts in Race 5. The sequence has a $10,000 guaranteed pool, and it will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 5

1-Allegheny Hanover (3/2)-This 3-year-old is no bargain at 3/2 but there isn't much form in the entire field. Recently cashed a 2nd place check at HoP in a conditioned $18k claimer. Warren should be on top turning for the wire and may need to be as this youngster doesn't like to pass down the lane.
3-Sportsmadness (9-1)-Won at a huge price, then bumped up to this level and finished last. Gets a new driver in Stewart and that change might matter. Could get a suck-around trip and can offer a decent price.

Race 6

2-Millindasfear (7/2)-Hoosier shipper makes its Stickney debut and should relish the company. Warren should have the 3-year-old forwardly placed off the gate.
5-Rags To Riches (7-1)-Stewart takes the lines and he has been hot. Got on the point and faded on 9-15. Should fit with this crew and will look for a different trip and a better finish.
6-Rockin Q (8-1)-Raced from the back in a needed start in its Haw debut. Smolin rolled the 2nd half in 55.1, should be tighter and could be in the hunt at the wire.

Race 7

1-PlaytoRock (8-1)-Didn't get the best of trips or drives last time. Won, but was Dq'd and now Warren takes the lines. Not sure the 8-1 morning line holds up but looks like a main player with a clean trip.
3-Checkme (12-1)-Took some money, left aggressively last week, and danced in the first turn. The 0-10 record is tough to swallow at short odds but should offer a decent price tonight. The best chance for a picture is probably being on top turning for the wire. Has a shot with a good steer.
7-Fox Valley Treason (5-1)-Drops and has enough gate speed to get a good early seat. Looking for Seekman to have the pedal down when the wings fold.

Race 8

1-Frankiepark (3-1)-Frankie has 2 wins in the last 48 tries, and most of this field wins annually. Leonard took the lines last time and the 6-year-old came up with a strong try. Will look for the upswing to continue.
5-Jimmy The Duke (7/2)-This veteran has easily won both of its starts at Haw. He is the one to beat and this field can't be much tougher than the last group.
9-Dash Around (5-1)-This is a competitive level but needs a sharp steer. Husted is back for his 2nd straight appearance and should offer a square price. Could be in the hunt if gets a good seat off the gate.

0.50 Late Pick 4

1,3/2,5,6/1,3,7/1,5,9
Total Bet=$27

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-29-2023, 07:17 AM

Laurel Park Pick 4 Ticket | Friday, Sept. 29

September 29, 2023 | By Frank Carulli
LAUREL PARK PICK 4
Friday, Sept. 29

Fillies and mares will be in the spotlight when Laurel Park’s Fall Meet begins this Friday. A pair of high-end allowance optional claiming races surround a one-mile Maiden Special Weight turf test to start the 50-cent Late Pick 4. Here’s a closer look:

LRL 7th race (3:42 P.M. EST) -- HAINT BLUE beat a suspect allowance field on a sloppy track at Delaware Park but looked good doing it. She was far back on the backstretch, accelerated on the turn and got to the leaders quickly in the stretch, foiling Biogenic Babe’s three-peat bid with ease. Her sire, Done Talking, won the 1-1/8-mile, Grade III Illinois Derby as a 3-year-old. PEYTON ELIZABETH has tactical speed, the rail and a 3-for-3 record at Parx since the claim by Ness. COVER THE SPREAD blew past a weak field off similar rest two starts back but was a non-factor in the Grade III Delaware Oaks won by Foggy Night, who followed with a second in the Grade III Monmouth Oaks and a minor stakes victory. She gets back on Lasix today and that could make the difference.

LRL 8th race (4:13 P.M. EST) -- HIDDEN PRESENCE saved ground tracking a slow pace and willingly chased the two favorites in the stretch to finish third. Her trainer, Graham Motion, strikes with 24 percent winners in their second start. PARISH LANE debuts for Matz, who is 20-percent plus with 2-year-olds and debut turf runners. Her dam, Silk and Scarlet, was a Group 2 winner in Ireland. With some room to spare on the Pick 4 ticket, LISA’S PALACE is worth using at 20-1 off the Gonzalez claim. Her dam broke her maiden at one mile on the turf and won an allowance at 7-1/2F.

LRL 9th race (4:44 P.M. EST) -- FILLE D’ESPRIT tries to pick up where she left off seven months ago, winning stakes at three tracks in the second half of 2022, making a ‘gritty run’ at Grade III winner Swayin to and Fro (9-16, $476k) in the Barbara Fritchie Stakes in February and increasing her 7F earnings to more than $300,000. QUICK MUNNY was in a good spot to use her speed and did so with an easy victory despite drifting out in at the top of the stretch. She has to carry her speed farther for a barn that boasts a 26 percent ‘repeat’ rate.

LRL 10th race (5:15 P.M. EST) -- WHISKEYINTHEJARO arrives from Penn National with a :48.1 bullet workout from the gate last month for a 22-percent barn with maiden claimers. His dam, Bread and Butter, was a first-out MSW winner at Churchill Downs and repeated in an allowance at Oaklawn Park. GALLANT RULER kept a busy work tab in August that included a :48.2 move over the track. His stakes-placed dam, Gallant Dreamer, had good speed and finished first or second in 8 of 12 starts. KINGS RIVER returns to the main track, where he broke slowly and didn’t threaten in a debut race that produced two MSW winners. VOLPE was reluctant loading for the second start in a row and didn’t fire for a high-percentage claim barn, but he showed speed first out and can’t be discounted.

Suggested 50-Cent Ticket
LRL 7th Race: 1, 7, 8
LRL 8th Race: 1, 6, 7
LRL 9th Race: 4, 6
LRL 10th Race: 2, 4, 6, 7
Cost: $36

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-29-2023, 07:17 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Santa Anita - Race #5

#13 Just a Guess	He'll need a lot of help to get in while third on the also-eligible list, but the barn has been dangerous with this kind in the past and might have this one ready for better on turf if he gets in today.
#4 Last Call Paul	Turf will be a question for him, but he's coming out of a couple really good races at the Del Mar meeting and is a great fit here on class. The one in the main body.
#8 Annan	Get a look at him on the track ahead of this, but I'm guessing he might be interesting for a piece if he's ready to roll today?
Race Summary	Consider #11 Kiss for Lulu if he goes, too, making the also-eligibles really appealing for me in this race if they get to run. Last Call Paul has a right to be tough with this group if he brings his baseline A-game.

Santa Anita - Race #8

#5 Eda	She's not going to offer much on the board in the feature, but I think the one she put away easily two starts back is the main pace threat again today, and the chalk gets another perfect draw to prompt the entire way.
#4 Elm Drive	Think she's the main danger if she somehow sneaks away a touch, but I just think the top choice is too tough here. She isn't impossible on the cutback, but I'm also not sure the price will be attractive enough to make taking the shot worth it.
#1 Clearly Unhinged	She might still have some upside here with just four starts under her belt, but I'd take the last one with a bit of caution, as she was really on her way to running a non-threatening third that day.
Race Summary	Unless Eda is taking a decent step back here, I am fairly certain she'll land her eighth race in a row -- the race flow doesn't appear too taxing for her style, and she draws perfectly to be the thorn in the side of the other pace.

Santa Anita - Race #9

#3 Quintecents	He's getting short on excuses with a lot of underneath shares, but I think he's in line for a dreamy trip right up near the top that should give him the jump on some of the other logical threats. Don't think he'd be the worst stand to take in the multi-race plays.
#8 Chiefs Blanket	He should appreciate getting back in with his friends after a couple starts against winners, and I am honestly not all that sure how he's going to stack up here. Maybe on reach tickets, and even with a solid lean to the top choice, I definitely wouldn't argue too much with anyone landing here.
#10 Autoline	He had to tap on the brakes just a touch and then angle out in that last one when facing tougher, but he was still going pretty evenly late, and I worry he'll be overbet on the drop in with claimers.
Race Summary	Quintecents has been in some pretty good form while catching a couple potentially decent winners along the way, and he should get the run of the race today if he's good enough.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-29-2023, 07:18 AM

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Gulfstream Park - Race #1

#8 KOZEM (3-1)	Sat good trip, swung wide, out-kicked with blinkers on, reunited with Perez.
#3 CASTELLANA (6-1)	‘Edged closer’ on turn, lacked kick in MSW debut against Florida breds.
#7 MISS ATLETIC (9-2)	Good speed, held for minor awards at three sprint distances recently.
Race Summary	KOZEM stalked dueling leaders, swung wide in lane and finished third with blinkers on. She is reunited with Perez and could reward her loyal backers on the slight class drop. Bet to win and place and play a 3-7-8 exacta box.

Gulfstream Park - Race #3

#5 NO PROBLEM JOE (7-5)	Chased longshot winners in last pair, now or never on class drop.
#3 KINGY (9-2)	Followed move of winner, ran second at 20-1 for $16,000 tag two back.
#7 BIANCA LUNA (5-2)	Filly chased the odds-on fave, faded at quarter pole, drops and shortens up.
Race Summary	NO PROBLEM JOE towers over the field on paper, though he made ‘no impact’ in the stretch while chasing the 18-1 winner last out. He makes his third start in 26 days but will have no excuses to not graduate. Bet to win and place.

Gulfstream Park - Race #6

#5 EXCHANGE DAY (5-1)	Rallied to win on turf, likes all-weather track more, projects ideal trip.
#2 STARTINGONAHIGHNOTE (3-1)	Ran lights out off similar rest to break maiden in third start.
#7 AWESOME CRUSADER (4-1)	Piles up the checks, ended long drought with back-to-back wins.
Race Summary	EXCHANGE DAY split rivals late and seized the moment after the favorite was reluctant loading to win on the Monmouth turf. He has some big back numbers on Gulfstream’s all-weather track to summon and gets plenty of pace to rally into. Play a 5-ALL exacta.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-29-2023, 07:18 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Charles Town

PURCHASE

Charles Town - Race 6	Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta / Daily Double (Races 6-7) / Pick 3 (Races 6-7-8)
Maiden Special • 4 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3-6 • CR: 53 • Purse: $26,500 • Post: 9:32P
FOR ACCREDITED WEST VIRGINIA-BRED MAIDENS, THREE, FOUR, FIVE, AND SIX YEARS OLD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Dominant Front-runner. KARMA BUS is the Dominant Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * KARMA BUS: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equi base Speed Figure at the distance/surface. GREY BOUQUET: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/sur face.
9	KARMA BUS	9/5	7/5
7	GREY BOUQUET	5/1	7/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
9	KARMA BUS	9	9/5	Front-runner	58	55	55.2	52.4	49.9
1	CALYPSO JOHN	1	9/2	Alternator/Stalker	0	0	45.2	46.6	41.1
5	DIMELO PAPI	5	15/1	Alternator/Stalker	0	0	27.5	39.8	31.3
7	GREY BOUQUET	7	5/1	Trailer	62	47	18.8	46.5	42.5
6	ARYA CHARMING	6	30/1	Trailer	0	0	2.8	33.2	23.2
8	DON'T GET CAUGHTUP	8	50/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	31.4	17.6	7.1
3	ESPRESSO	3	6/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	0.0	0.0	0.0

Unknown Running Style: GOLDEN ASSET (15/1) [Jockey: Mawing Anthony - Trainer: McDonald Timothy], MAGICAL SURPRISE (4/1) [Jockey: Barbosa Jeiron - Trainer: Walters David], THEIRREGISTRDIMNOT (12/1) [Jockey: Mendez Marshall - Trainer: Carlisle John C].

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-29-2023, 07:18 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Prairie MeadowsPURCHASE

Prairie Meadows - Race 7	Win/ Place/ Show/ Quinella / Exacta / Trifecta (.50 Minimum) Superfecta (.10 Minimum) / Daily Double / Pick 3 (.50 Minimum) Jackpot Pick 5 (.50 Minimum)
Starter Allowance $30,000 • 1 Mile • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 65 • Purse: $36,429 • Post: 8:33P
FOR REGISTERED STATE BRED FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $30,000 OR LESS AND WHICH HAVE NEVER WON A RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN OR CLAIMING. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE JUNE 29, 2023 ALLOWED 2 LBS. (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $25,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ALLOWANCES).

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Lone Stalker. STREAKIN' EASY is the Lone Stalker of the race. * KEY ANGLES * SIMMERING: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. HARD SPIRITS: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. STREAKIN' EASY: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. KAYLOR: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. SING LUCY SING: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
2	SIMMERING	2/1	5/1
6	HARD SPIRITS	3/1	5/1
5	STREAKIN' EASY	4/1	8/1
1	KAYLOR	5/2	9/1
3	SING LUCY SING	10/1	10/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	KAYLOR	1	5/2	Front-runner	65	53	57.6	50.6	42.6
3	SING LUCY SING	3	10/1	Alternator/Front-runner	56	59	52.6	53.3	44.3
2	SIMMERING	2	2/1	Alternator/Front-runner	65	65	50.0	57.0	54.5
5	STREAKIN' EASY	5	4/1	Alternator/Stalker	65	52	37.0	49.6	41.6
6	HARD SPIRITS	6	3/1	Trailer	63	59	41.7	61.6	56.1
4	THE AWFUL TRUTH	4	10/1	Trailer	50	56	29.4	42.7	31.2
7	RUDY TOOTY	7	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	51	49	34.8	32.6	21.6

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-29-2023, 07:18 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Churchill Downs

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 2 - Claiming - 7.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $48000 Class Rating: 92

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE AUGUST 29 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $16,000

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 3 TWO WORLDS 3/1
# 1 AFTER FIVE 5/2
# 7 KHOZAN'S SUCCESS 10/1

I have to consider TWO WORLDS here. Vandenberg has a very strong win percentage with horses racing in dirt sprint races. Must be given consideration based on the very good speed fig put up in the last affair. Looks quite good for the conditions of this contest today, showing solid numbers in dirt sprint races lately. AFTER FIVE - Has very good Equibase speed figs and has to be considered for a wager in this event. With better than average trips to the winner's circle, Torres will most likely have this gelding in excellent position to win the competition. KHOZAN'S SUCCESS - Had one of the strongest Equibase Speed Figs of this group of animals in his last race. Has very good Equibase speed figs and has to be considered for a bet in this contest.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-29-2023, 07:19 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Belterra Park - Race #4 - Post: 1:35pm - Claiming - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $13,600 Class Rating: 72

Rating:

#5 MOMMA RIO (ML=9/2)

MOMMA RIO - Mare looks like the lone speed here. She may turn the race into a procession. You always have to be on the watch for money generating jockey/trainer duos; we have an instance right here. This front runner is shortening up today. Should aid her likelihood of winning.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 MISS FOXANN (ML=5/2), #2 WATER FIGHT (ML=3/1), #6 HAPPYSECRET (ML=7/2),

MISS FOXANN - Aug 31st is the last time we've seen this filly around. Have to be a little bit leery. This filly is always in the mix, but just doesn't win. Tough to play her on the front end. When looking at today's class rating, she will have to register a better fig than last time out to be competitive in this dirt sprint. WATER FIGHT - Tough to take this horse at these odds after the finish (third) in the last event. HAPPYSECRET - This horse hasn't been close in either of her last two efforts. Finished sixth in her most recent race with a mediocre speed rating. When I look at today's class rating, it would take an improved performance to win after that in this group.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Have to go with #5 MOMMA RIO on the win end if we get at least 1/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	None
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	None
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-29-2023, 07:19 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Santa Anita - Race #4 - Post: 2:36pm - Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $24,000 Class Rating: 77

Rating:

#6 POINT AND SHOOT (ML=6/1)

POINT AND SHOOT - Taking a trip down in the class scale; has the ability to make her presence felt.

Vulnerable Contenders: #5 SWEET HELLO (ML=8/5), #4 MISS KALINE (ML=2/1), #3 LIKE NO OTHER (ML=2/1),

SWEET HELLO - This filly hasn't been getting the job done as the public's choice. MISS KALINE - The speed figure last time around the track doesn't fit very well in this affair when I look at the class figure of today's contest. Mark this horse as a likely underlay. LIKE NO OTHER - This filly hasn't been showing me anything positive in the last two races. Don't think this steed will do much running in today's event. That last speed rating was common when compared with today's class rating.

GUEST COMMENTARY: Hal - POINT AND SHOOT - This filly's superior last speed number of 76, against these ponies, makes her the overwhelming choice.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Have to go with #6 POINT AND SHOOT on the win end if we get at least 1/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	6 with 1
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	None

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-29-2023, 07:19 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Meadowlands

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 4 - Claiming - 8.5f on the Turf. Purse: $23000 Class Rating: 93

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF TWO RACES AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE JULY 29 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE THEN ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $12,500, FOR EACH $1,000 TO $10,500 1 LB.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 7 MONTAUK SUMMER 8/1
# 9 MONARCHS GLEN (GB) 4/1
# 8 GRADED ON A CURVE 2/1

I like MONTAUK SUMMER in this competition and the potential return justifies the precarious nature of the long odds. Strong choice to take this race going in a turf route. He has put up decent figures under today's conditions and should fare well against this field. MONARCHS GLEN (GB) - Should best this group here, showing very strong figs of late. Ran a strong last race. GRADED ON A CURVE - Delgado has this gelding running well and is a decent pick based on the strong Equibase Speed Figures earned in route races recently. Win percentage one of the most favorable in this field.