3-9-09

[Mr. IWS]

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 3-9-09

BIG AL

NBA ROADKILL WINNER

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Hawks plus the points over New Orleans. The Hornets come into tonight's game on a seven-game win streak, and have won their last two games by double digits (104-88 vs. Dallas and 108-90 vs. Oklahoma City). Unfortunately, New Orleans is 25-46 ATS on the road off a double digit win, including 11-29 ATS vs. a foe off a SU/ATS win. And the Hornets are 0-12 ATS on the road off back-to-back home games, provided they're not favored by 4.5 points. Finally, over the past 10 seasons, NBA road teams have covered just 20 of 86 games off back-to-back double-digit wins, if they're not favored by more than three points against a foe that's off exactly one win and cover, provided such opponent was favored in its last game. With Atlanta in off an 87-83 home triumph vs. Detroit, we'll play on the Hawks tonight

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 3-9-09

Ben Burns
- Conf. Tourny GAME OF THE YEAR!

I'm laying the points with SIENA.

These teams both had excellent regular seasons and were clearly the two top teams in the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference. That was expected from the Saints but one could argue that the Purple Eagles over-achieved somewhat. Either way, here they are squaring off against each other in the MAAC title game for the third time in the last eight years. While I respect the Purple Eagles, I still believe that the Saints are the stronger team. Perhaps more importantly, they've got the "situation" in their favor here. The Saints appear to be peaking at the right time, as they're coming off back to back double-digit victories. Note that yesterday's 80-65 victory started at 6:30pm EST. On the other hand, Niagara is coming off an exhausting "thriller" against Rider last night, a game which started at 8:30pm EST. I use words like "exhausting" and "thriller," as the Purple Eagles needed a "30 foot prayer" at the end of regulation to force overtime. The first overtime period would solve nothing, with Niagara eventually winning in double-overtime. I believe that type of "gruelling" late night victory will make it very tough on the Purple Eagles here. In addition to facing a powerful Siena squad, they also have to play on the Saints' home floor. Note that the teams split a pair of meetings this season with the home team winning by double-digits each time. In fact, the Saints are 4-0 SU and 3-0-1 ATS the last four times they were a host in this series, each of the last three victories coming by double-digits. Including this season's earlier victory, when they were favored by 5.5 points, the Saints are 5-1 ATS the last six times that they were listed as home favorites in the -3.5 to -6 range. Looking back further and we find them at 15-9-2 ATS the last 26 times that they were home favorites in this range. You may remember the Saints scoring a decisive victory over Vandy in the Big Dance last year. They brought back all the same players from that team and anything less than another Conf. Tournament title and another trip to the tournament will be a major disappointment. Look for them to be the fresher team as they earn the big win and cover the relatively small number along the way. *MAAC Tourny GOY - Monday Main Event

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 3-9-09

Brandon Lang:

15 Dimer VCU

15 Dimer College of Charleston

15 Dimer Arkansas Little Rock

5 Dimer on North Texas

5 Dimer on Niagara,


FREE - Portland Trailblazers


15 Dimer VCU - Get off that George Mason-bandwagon. It?s a distant memory from that Cinderella season, and the Patriots are no longer the power team in this conference. Surprise, surprise, it?s VCU ? the regular-season champ ? and tonight we?re going to see it come alive behind two-time Player of the Year Eric Maynor and waltz right into the Big Dance with the automatic bid. It won?t be easy, I believe that, but the Rams have the better overall team. And because we have a player like Maynor on our side, I believe we may be seeing the 2009 version of Davidson right before our very eyes.

The fact is, as much as I am impressed by the Rams, is as dismayed as I am about George Mason?s semi-final struggle with 11th-seeded Towson. Two straight days, and two straight eight-point wins. Quite frankly, I expected more from the Patriots. In the long regular season clash between these two teams, on Jan. 24th, the Rams earned the 76-71 win. That will go a long way tonight in terms of the confidence the Rams will have.

VCU has limited foes to a mere 40 percent shooting from the field, resulting in 63.8 points per game allowed and a scoring margin of better than eight points per game. The pats may bet the defending conference tourney champs, but this is VCU?s year, and I?m laying it with the right side.

15 Dimer College of Charleston - Davidson is out, and the road to the Big Dance now goes through legendary coach Bobby Cremins. I remember his tenacity when he was with Georgia Tech, and now he?s instilled that with the Cougars. Yesterday they shocked the world by negating a nine-point deficit to knock off Stephen Curry and Davidson, and while the Wildcats will be hoping for an at-large bid, the Cougars will make it the old fashioned way ? they?ll earn it.

I don?t trust a Chattanooga team that needed a close 79-78 squeaker over Elon to get it done in the second round, and that certainly doesn?t have the offensive horsepower to overcome Charleston?s defense. The Cougars have won 12 of 21 meetings with Chattanooga in the all-time serie, including an 86-77 decision over the Mocs earlier this season inside this same McKenzie Arena.

Charleston rolls in having covered six of eight ? all in Southern Conference play ? and 11 of 15 against winning teams. And since the Mocs are 1-6 in their last seven in league action, I like the slim chalk here.

15 Dimer Arkansas Little Rock - Interesting game between South Alabama and Ark-Little Rock, and though it might seem as if I am going against the Jaguars because they knocked off Troy last night and ruined my winning day, I honestly wasn?t impressed and would take Troy again if the two played again tonight. USA was the beneficiary of a terrible shooting performance in the second half by the Trojans.

Tonight that won?t be the case against these set of Trojans, who won the West Division of the Sun Belt Conference with a 15-3 mark, and most certainly have the better all-around team ? both offensively and defensively. And when you have a team that virtually manhandled John Calipari?s Memphis Tigers in non-conference play, and you?re a mid-major, you have a team to reckon with.

When Arkansas Little Rock lost 59-51 to Memphis, I called my boy Chris Jordan in Las Vegas and told him personally we would be discussing the Trojans in March and how this team would be battling for the Sun Belt title. Incidentally, he alerted me to Tennessee-Chattanooga in that same conversation. Turns out we were both right with our keen senses on these mid-majors.

The Trojans are on ATS runs of 4-1 against teams with a winning record on the wood, 9-3 in their last 12 as a favorite of no more than 6-1/2 points and 11-4 overall ? all of which were in Sun Belt play. On the flipside, the Jaguars come into this one on a bevy of spread slides, including being 3-7 as an underdog, 4-14 ATS in their last 18 against winning teams, 1-4 after an ATS win, 1-5 when catching points on a neutral court and 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games overall ? all in conference play.

We take it to the betting numbers for these bonus 5-Dimers, because one thing to remember with the postseason, is there is no lying when it comes to true numbers in basketball. They give a true gauge of how a team is playing, and that?s why the betting numbers are good to look at in the conference finals.

For instance, with my 5 Dimer on Niagara, we find the Purple Eagles are on spread streaks of 9-3 when installed as an underdog, 4-1 off an ATS loss, 8-3 in conference play and 13-5 whenever taking on a team that has won more than 60 percent of its games. On the flipside, Siena, the regular-season conference titlist, is mired in ATS skids of 5-13 on an unbiased basketball court and 2-6 when laying chalk on a neutral hardwood.

With my 5 Dimer on North Texas, we see the Mean Green is on ATS runs of 16-3 on a neutral court, 4-1 against winning teams, 20-6 when installed as the pup, 10-3 when catching points on an impartial court and 8-3 overall ? all in Sun Belt play. On the flipside, the Hilltoppers tend to fall flat on their face after a stellar defensive effort, as they?re on a 1-5 ATS skid after giving up less than 50 in their last contest. Let?s play the Mean Green Eagles here, as they roll to the win and cover.

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[Mr. IWS]

Re: 3-9-09

Dr. Bob - also has 2 best bets this evening.

Monday Opinion/Possible Best Bet
Gonzaga (-7 ½) over St. Mary’s
Rotation #520 – 6 pm Pacific
Gonzaga applies to a very strong 51-9-1 ATS conference tournament final situation and a 142-53-4 ATS situation, but the line has gone up from 6 points to 7 ½ points and I’m not willing to give up that much line value to make the Zags a Best Bet. St. Mary’s got star point guard Patti Mills back last night for their game with Portland and my ratings favor Gonzaga by just 6 ½ points using only St. Mary’s games with Mills playing. Mills was a bit rusty shooting the ball (3 for 12 from the field) but he reportedly was shooting the ball very well in practice this past week so I can not assume he’s struggle again tonight. The situation is so strong that I’m willing to give up some line value, but I’d only take Gonzaga in a 2-Star Best Bet at -7 points or less (3-Stars at -6 or less). I’ll still lean with Gonzaga at -7 ½ or -8 points based on the very strong situation.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 3-9-09

Larry Ness
REASON FOR PICK: There is no denying that the Lakers have the league's best record (50-12) as well as its best road mark (21-8). However, LA has lost its last six games and 12 of its last 14 when visiting the Rose Garden. Kobe (18.4-5.5-4.9), Gasol (18.4-9.4) and Fisher (10.7-3.5 SAPG) have been the team's constants, as Bynum's return is still unknown and the team's fifth starter has been "up for grabs" for most of this season. That's not to say that LA doesn't have a 'boatful' of talent in reserve. Odom (10.7-7.9), a longtime starter in this league, began the year on the bench but when Bynum went down on Jan 31, became a starter. He was terrific through 13 games, averaging 16.5 PPG and an incredible 13.4 RPG but over his last three games, is averaging just 2.7 PPG and 8.0 RPG (Jackson is concerned). As for the Blazers. Oden's absence has meant little, as Pryzbilla (5.1-8.1) is averaging 9.7 PPG over the last 10 games (coinciding with Oden's latest mishap), while the Blazers have gone 7-3, including 6-0 at home. Roy (22.9-4.7-5.1) is "something special" and power forward Aldridge (17.9-7.0) will surely look forward to the challenge of going up against Gasol. Outlaw (12.4-4.2) has almost replicated his career-best numbers from last year (13.3-4.6) while rookie guard Fernandez (10.4) has been a HUGE scoring boost off the bench all season. Blake's (10.7-4.9) return to health at the point has also been important, as who would have ever thought that the best NBA player off Maryland's 2002 national championship team would turn out to be Steve Blake? LA is not the only team having trouble up in Portland this year, as the Blazers have won 11 straight home games, upping their mark to 26-5 SU and 19-12 ATS on the year (outscoing opponents on average,102.4-92.3). LA has easily won both home games this year vs Portland but let me remind you again that the Lakers have lost their last six (and 12 of 14) in Portland. Let me also remind you that those Portland teams were non-playoff teams (Blazers have missed five straight postseasons), while this year's edition is 39-23 and well on its way to the playoffs. Weekly Wipeout Winner Por Blazers (7.5*).

Larry Ness
REASON FOR PICK: Niagara's leading scorer is guard Lewis (16.2-4.7), who was MVP of the 2007 MAAC tourney when the Purple Aces beat Siena for the title. Siena had beaten Niagara twice during the regular season that year but the "third time was the charm" for the Purple Aces. Siena again won both regular season meetings against Niagara last year (scoring 94 points each time) and took the MAAC regular season and tourney title, although the teams didn't meet in the conference tourney. Beside Lewis, Niagara has swingman Benn (14.2.9.3) and guard Garrison (11.0-2.8-2.6) both former Big East players (Benn from 'Nova and Garrison from U Conn). PG Nelson (8.0-4.4-5.4) does an excellent job running the team and the 6-10 Ejemonye (17.8-6.9) is by far the team's best inside player (although the 6-5 Benn does average 9.2 RPG). Siena went 16-2 in MAAC play this year to win the regular season title by two games over Niagara, led by an outstanding backcourt. The 6-6 Ubiles (14.8-5.0) will offer Benn quite a challenge, while PG Moore (8.8-3.3-6.3) and Hasbrouck (14.7-3.3-2.8) start with Jackson (8.4) coming off the bench. Joining Hasbrouck, Moore and Ubiles in the starting lineup are small forward Franklin (13.5-7.4), who like Benn is an outstanding rebounder for his size, plus the 6-9 Rossiter (9.8-7.5). Both teams are worthy of at-large consideration but both know that's a long shot. Siena is the regular season champ and has a high RPI but the Saints "will not be fooled" into thinking they are in. Siena is quite a team and has played an impressive non-conference schedule to toughen them up. The Saints lost neutral site games to Tennessee and Okla St in late November plus traveled (and lost) to Pitt and Kansas, acquitting themselves admirably both times. So where are we here? Since losing at Lawrence, Kansas 91-84 on Jan 6 (Siena fell behind 30-10 but lost by just SEVEN!), the Saints have won 15 of 17. The losses came at Rider (90-88) and late in the year (Feb 27), at Niagara (100-85). The Saints get this game in their home city of Albany (not their home court but that's HUGE edge), are playing with some recent revenge (for that Feb 27 loss) plus best of all, catch the Purple Aces off a double-OT win last night, in which FOUR of the team's starters (Benn, Garrison, Lewis and Nelson) all played at least 44 minutes, while the team's lone big man (Ejemonye), played 36. That sounds like a "perfect storm" to me! PERFECT STORM on Siena (9*).

Larry Ness
REASON FOR PICK: Ark-LR won the Sun Belt's Western Division by four games with a 15-3 league mark and will take a 23-7 record into this semi-final game with South Alabama. The team suspended leading scorer, point guard Steven Moore (13.6-3.2 APG), after the team's Feb 19 loss at Western Kentucky. The Trojans have won all four games since, but I believe they are "ripe for the taking," tonight. The starting guards now are Mouzy (10.2) and Patterson (6.1-4.0-2.8), joined in the lineup by the 6-7 Edwards (12.0-5.4). 6-4 small forward Fowler (6.8-4.9) and the 6-8 Burton (3.6-2.8). The 6-7 Smith (6.8-4.9) is a solid contributor off the bench. Watch out for South Alabama! Ronnie Arrow returned to Mobile last year (had led the Jags to NCAA bids back in '89 and '91), after building up Texas A&M-CC from the ground up and taking them to the NCAA tourney in 2007 (scared Wisconsin!). His first season was a HUGE success, as the Jags went 16-2 during the regular season and despite falling in the SBC tourney, the Jags' 26 wins were enough for them to get an at-large bid (rare for the SBC). South Alabama lost leading scorer Bennett (19.7-5.8) and PG Merritt (11.5-5.5 APG) off that team and things have not gone as smoothly this year. However, the Jags have won EIGHT of their last 10 games and will be poised to avenge a Jan 22 home loss of 61-59 to the Trojans. In that game, the Jags shot just 36.3 percent from the floor, including 3-of-16 on threes. Senior guard Tiford had some late-summer legal problems but he's been "good-to-go" all season, averaging 16.4 PPG. He's joined by fellow seniors, the 6-6 Davis (12.6-7.4), the 6-7 Coleman (11.2-8.2) and the 6-8 Douglas (6.1-4.2). Two JUCOs, the 6-5 Watson (7.4-4.4) and guard Sherrer (5.1) have been nice additions, as has freshman guard Garner (5.1). Ark-LR just escaped against Denver on Sunday, winning 58-55 by outscoring the Pioneers, 32-18 in the second half. Without PG Moore, starting guards Mouzy and Patterson made a combined 4-of-15 shots (10 points) but the remaining team members connected on an amazing 19-of-27 (that won't happen again!). Let's remember, the Denver team Ark-LR beat is best known for almost NEVER winning way from home, as the Pioneers just ended a 43-game road losing streak this past Feb 21. Sou Alabama knows that no at-large bid awaits them this year and Ronnie Arrow has proven he knows how to coach in games like this. Expect a double digit win by the Jags. Bailout Mismatch on Sou Alabama (7*).