Saturday 10/14/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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[ConleyPicks]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Thistledown

PURCHASE

Thistledown - Race 9	$1 Exacta / $1 Trifecta / $.10 Superfecta
Allowance • 1 Mile • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 86 • Purse: $29,700 • Post: 4:50P
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE SEPTEMBER 13 ALLOWED 2 LBS. SUCH A RACE SINCE AUGUST 13 ALLOWED 4 LBS. (CLAIMING RACES FOR $12,500 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN WEIGHT ALLOWANCES) (OHIO REGISTERED FOALS PREFERRED).

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Lone Front-runner. GOODBYELLOWBRICKRD is the Lone Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * GOODBYELLOWBRICKRD: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse has the highest average Equibas e Class Rating at the distance/surface. CITY OF CLOUDS: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. CYCLONE: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. CENTSOFWANDER: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
2	GOODBYELLOWBRICKRD	5/2	4/1
6	CITY OF CLOUDS	2/1	6/1
7	CYCLONE	5/1	7/1
4	CENTSOFWANDER	9/2	7/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
2	GOODBYELLOWBRICKRD	2	5/2	Front-runner	88	75	77.0	78.3	70.3
6	CITY OF CLOUDS	6	2/1	Stalker	84	86	68.2	73.5	67.5
1	HURRY ON OUT	1	10/1	Trailer	84	70	65.8	56.7	47.2
4	CENTSOFWANDER	4	9/2	Trailer	87	83	55.8	81.6	74.6
7	CYCLONE	7	5/1	Trailer	86	79	49.8	80.2	75.2
5	FALK	5	12/1	Alternator/Non-contender	68	75	93.9	53.1	41.1
3	R CARDINAL PRINCE	3	6/1	Alternator/Non-contender	87	81	53.6	75.8	68.8

[ConleyPicks]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Charles TownPURCHASE

Charles Town - Race 8	Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta
Maiden Special • 4 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3-6 • CR: 53 • Purse: $26,500 • Post: 10:32
FOR ACCREDITED WEST VIRGINIA-BRED MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE, FOUR, FIVE, AND SIX YEARS OLD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Dominant Stalker. RIGHT TO REFUSE is the Dominant Stalker of the race. * KEY ANGLES * RIGHT TO REFUSE: Horse is dropping into a race which has an Class Rating at least five points lower than the Class Rating of its last race. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. VERY VENUS: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. MISS ARGENTINA: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has the highe st average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
11	RIGHT TO REFUSE	7/2	9/2
4	VERY VENUS	5/2	5/1
5	MISS ARGENTINA	3/1	7/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
8	OUR BREW	8	8/1	Alternator/Front-runner	52	39	57.2	36.5	30.5
5	MISS ARGENTINA	5	3/1	Stalker	49	47	9.1	45.2	39.2
11	RIGHT TO REFUSE	11	7/2	Alternator/Stalker	0	0	65.4	53.1	48.6
4	VERY VENUS	4	5/2	Alternator/Stalker	49	43	58.2	43.4	36.9
3	S S FOUR QUEENS	3	6/1	Alternator/Stalker	42	33	25.0	33.1	21.1
2	FAR MORE	2	8/1	Trailer	51	45	35.6	41.0	31.5
1	PALACIO	1	30/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	45.5	22.8	7.8
7	SHE'S A BRICKHOUSE	7	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	27.5	31.3	18.8

Unknown Running Style: GANGSTER AMERICANO (10/1) [Jockey: Rodriguez Victor - Trainer: Joy Kevin J], PRINCESS URSULA (15/1) [Jockey: Araujo Denis - Trainer: Schottroffe Edward T], PRINCESS MARGARET (5/1) [Jockey: Hiraldo Christian - Trainer: Grams Tim

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Remington Park

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 8 - Allowance - 5.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $36000 Class Rating: 101

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER, OR STATE BRED OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES OR WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE SINCE JANUARY 13, 2023. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE SEPTEMBER 13, 2023 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE AUGUST 13, 2023 ALLOWED 4 LBS. (MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER, OR

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 8 JACKMAN'S RIDE 5/1
# 3 ALTO ROAD 8/1
# 7 ALGEBRA 4/1

JACKMAN'S RIDE looks solid to best this field. Risk takers should feel comfortable with this pick given Diego's recent gains at the window. With Diego on top him, this gelding will almost certainly be able to break out sharply here. Has to be carefully examined based on the very good Equibase speed fig recorded in the last race. ALTO ROAD - Difficult to pass on this colt with Fuentes in the irons. Has to be given a shot for this event if only for the formidable speed figure garnered in the last contest. ALGEBRA - This pony has a terrific winning percentage in dirt sprints. Overall the Speed Figures of this animal look very strong in this affair.

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Belmont at the Big A - Race #1 - Post: 12:35pm - Maiden Special - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $75,000 Class Rating: 81

Rating:

#7 KHADULLAH (ML=8/1)
#2 INONIT (ML=9/2)


KHADULLAH - Last raced at Saratoga carrying 5 pounds more. The lower weight assigned in this field should serve him well. Have to forget about that last race on the turf. This colt should do better hitting the dirt today. INONIT - Horse didn't get the best of trips in his debut. I look for an improvement today. That 64 fig this colt garnered in his last race tells me he's a major player in today's event.

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 WISECRACKER (ML=5/2), #6 PANDAGATE (ML=3/1), #1 MAMA'S MIDDIE (ML=7/2),

WISECRACKER - The finish position of sixth in the last event shows me that this horse may be going off form. Not likely that the fig he garnered on September 4th will be good enough in this race. PANDAGATE - I just don't possess a good sensation about this mount in this affair. MAMA'S MIDDIE - Last ran on Aug 12th at Saratoga, finishing sixth. Unlikely to get better off of that try in today's event.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Put your money on #7 KHADULLAH on the nose if you can get odds of 3/2 or more
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [2,7]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Skip

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Laurel

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 2 - Maiden Claiming - 8.0f on the Turf. Purse: $36000 Class Rating: 68

FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE, FOUR, AND FIVE YEARS OLD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 123 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $30,000, IF FOR $24,000, ALLOWED 4 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 10 HAINT BLUE (FR) 2/1
# 16 BELLESHAZZA 5/2
# 11 IMAGINETHEODDS 5/1

I think HAINT BLUE (FR) is a very good choice. Overall the speed figures of this pony look very strong in this affair. Has to be given consideration - I like the figures from the last competition. The average class figure of 75 makes this entrant difficult to beat. BELLESHAZZA - Ought to come out sharp - I have liked the way this filly has moved promptly to the front end recently. Solid average speed figures in turf route races make this racer a contender.

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Delaware Park - Race #3 - Post: 1:30pm - Claiming - 8.3 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $14,000 Class Rating: 75

Rating:

#1 MOLIERE (ML=8/1)
#5 LIFESPAN (ML=6/1)


MOLIERE - Faced tougher last time around the track at Parx Racing. Based on Equibase class figures, this is a weaker bunch, so I will put this horse on my list of contenders. LIFESPAN - Was in a $6,250 Claiming race at Delaware Park in the last race. That event had a class number of 86 and he is moving down right here in this race. A certain win candidate. This horse ran off the board at Delaware Park in the last race on the mud. He should improve right here under better track conditions.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 SALTY HEIR (ML=5/2), #2 WARRIOR IN CHIEF (ML=6/1), #8 ROARING RIVER (ML=8/1),

SALTY HEIR - Couldn't close any ground at any point on Sep 7th. Hard to bet on this time around at the expected odds. This racer ran a most unsatisfactory speed fig last time out. He shouldn't run much better and will likely lose in today's race running that number. WARRIOR IN CHIEF - Doubtful that this questionable contender can take the punishment of another grueling run down the stretch after the last two efforts. The speed figure last time out doesn't fit very well in this event when I look at the Equibase class figure of today's race. Mark this mount as a likely underlay. ROARING RIVER - Hard to put your cash on the win end of any entrant that finishes second and third as often as this thoroughbred does.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#1 MOLIERE is the play if we get odds of 3/2 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [1,5]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	None
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Charles Town

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 6 - Maiden Special Weight - 6.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $26500 Class Rating: 58

FOR ACCREDITED WEST VIRGINIA-BRED MAIDENS, THREE, FOUR, FIVE, AND SIX YEARS OLD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 7 JUST CALL ME AL 7/5
# 9 GREATANDGOOD 8/1
# 1 ALDARIGHTTRICKS 9/2

JUST CALL ME AL looks respectable to best this field. Overall, has one of the top earnings per start in dirt sprint contests in this field of horses. Has performed well recently in sprint races, posting a nifty 56 avg speed fig. Must be given a chance here on the basis of the figures in the speed realm alone. GREATANDGOOD - This colt could improve with second time Lasix. Must be given a chance given the class of races run recently. ALDARIGHTTRICKS - Looks quite good versus this group and will probably be one of the leaders.

[ConleyPicks]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Lone Star Park

Lone Star Park - Race 5	Exacta / $.50 Trifecta / $.10 Superfecta / Daily Double $.50 Pick 3 (Races 5-6-7) / $.50 Pick 6 (Races 5-6-7-8-9-10)
Allowance • 350 Yards • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 81 •Purse: $17,000 • Post: 7:57P
QUARTER HORSE 350Y, FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 125 LBS.; OLDER, 128 LBS.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * RIDE AROUND: Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. FIRST TIME FOR WINE: Quarter horse has the highest last race Equibase Speed Rating. IM SITA: Qua rter Horse has a Fast Break Style designation and no horse in a post position next to it gets out of the gate fast. DOS CORONA FLASH: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. CANDY FACE: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating.
1	RIDE AROUND	8/1	5/1
7	FIRST TIME FOR WINE	5/2	7/1
10	IM SITA	3/1	7/1
12	DOS CORONA FLASH	30/1	8/1
3	CANDY FACE	15/1	8/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	RIDE AROUND	1	8/1	Average	83	92	4.9	0.0	0.0
2	CJ CLASSY SASSY CHIC	2	12/1	Slow	74	77	6.1	0.0	0.0
3	CANDY FACE	3	15/1	Average	81	83	3.6	0.0	0.0
4	JUST DE VINE	4	20/1	Average	81	67	4.7	0.0	0.0
5	CHICKS CUTIE	5	2/1	Average	77	78	5.0	0.0	0.0
6	CARDI B CORONA	6	20/1	Fast	82	70	3.2	0.0	0.0
7	FIRST TIME FOR WINE	7	5/2	Average	80	81	4.3	0.0	0.0
8	TONIGHT IS THE NIGHT	8	20/1	Average	79	69	4.1	0.0	0.0
9	OVER THE MOONIN	9	20/1	Average	77	76	4.7	0.0	0.0
10	IM SITA	10	3/1	Fast	79	81	2.7	0.0	0.0
11	PRECIOUS DYNASTY	11	10/1	Average	82	76	4.7	0.0	0.0
12	DOS CORONA FLASH	12	30/1	Slow	85	86	6.3	0.0	0.0

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Thistledown - Race #6 - Post: 3:20pm - SO - 12.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $20,000 Class Rating: 90

Rating:

#7 ITASCA (ML=5/1)
#4 BOURBON WISDOM (ML=8/1)
#1 MY BROTHER CAM (ML=3/1)
#3 ROYAL DRAGOON (ML=4/1)


ITASCA - Jock hops back aboard after getting to know the horse by riding last time around the track. That's always a helpful angle. Be loyal to this racer. Coming off the pace, I think he'll be in a fantastic spot to crush them in the stretch. This gelding is in fine form, having run a good race on September 26th, finishing third. BOURBON WISDOM - This thoroughbred coming off a good effort in the last month is a contender in my humble opinion. MY BROTHER CAM - Have to make this gelding a serious competitor; he comes off a solid effort on September 26th. ROYAL DRAGOON - Bowen and Urieta getting together are a horse gambler's friend. Have to give this gelding a shot. Ran a strong effort last race out within the last month or so.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 ZERO GRAVITY (ML=5/2), #2 CINDY'S STORM (ML=9/2),

ZERO GRAVITY - The speed ratings continue to drop, 96/85/76. Not a good signal. Don't feel this racer will make an impact in today's race. That last rating was mediocre when compared with today's class rating. CINDY'S STORM - Tough to keep stabbing at this sort of 'hanger' horse. Doubtful that the speed fig he earned on Sep 28th will be good enough in this race.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Have to go with #7 ITASCA on the win end if we get at least 9/2 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [4,7]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Fresno

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 3 - SA - 5.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $16000 Class Rating: 88

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $8,000 OR LESS IN 2022 - 2023. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF TWO RACES SINCE AUGUST 15 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE THEN ALLOWED 4 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 5 MORNING ADDICTION 5/2
# 4 BLUEBERRY MUFFIN 2/1
# 1 AIR FORCE WOMAN 3/1

I think MORNING ADDICTION is a very strong choice. He has been racing well lately while recording strong speed figures. Jockey's recent return on investment figures make this horse a good wager. Will most likely be one of the leaders of the group going into the halfway point of the competition. BLUEBERRY MUFFIN - Has to be given consideration in this event if only for the quite good speed figure put up in the last race. Cruz has a win percentage of 24 over the last month. AIR FORCE WOMAN- This mare has a good win percent in dirt sprint races. Like the finish positions in the last several events.

[ConleyPicks]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Meadowlands

Meadowlands - Race 3	Win, Place and Show Exacta, 50-Cent Trifecta and 10-Cent Superfecta Daily Double (Races 3-4)/50-Cent Pick 3 (Races 3-4-5) 50-Cent Pick 4 (Races 3-4-5-6)
Maiden Claiming $10,000 • 1 1/16 Miles • Turf • Ages 3 and up • CR: 66 • Purse: $16,000 • Post: 7:53P
(RAIL AT 17 FEET). (PLUS UP TO 40% NJB) FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $10,000.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Lone Stalker. BOOYAH is the Lone Stalker of the race, but has been deemed a non-contender due to a low Platinum Figure or other overall low ratings. * KEY ANGLES * TWO MINUTES APART: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Spee d Figure at the distance/surface. Horse has the highest average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. DOOQ: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. FAST STUDY: Horse ha s a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. SILVER SPRINTER: Jockey/Trainer combination return on investment is at least +20. Horse has a 4F workout since its last race, and the workout ti me is faster than its own half-mile time in its last race.
5	TWO MINUTES APART	5/1	6/1
3	DOOQ	3/1	6/1
1	FAST STUDY	7/2	6/1
7	SILVER SPRINTER	10/1	7/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
3	DOOQ	3	3/1	Front-runner	74	66	71.6	62.0	53.0
5	TWO MINUTES APART	5	5/1	Alternator/Front-runner	71	62	86.7	58.4	50.9
4	PASCHAL MOON	4	4/1	Alternator/Front-runner	0	0	69.7	55.7	48.7
9	BOOYAH	9	20/1	Alternator/Stalker	0	0	77.7	55.0	42.5
7	SILVER SPRINTER	7	10/1	Trailer	76	70	68.2	50.2	42.7
8	DRUID	8	15/1	Alternator/Trailer	0	0	70.2	57.6	48.6
1	FAST STUDY	1	7/2	Alternator/Trailer	67	59	70.1	60.7	53.7
10	SYNCOPATED	10	10/1	Alternator/Non-contender	64	59	66.0	56.0	42.0
2	AFFAMATO	2	10/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	64.5	37.9	19.9
11	FIFTH ELEMENT	11	10/1	Alternator/Non-contender	61	55	40.2	44.0	27.0

Unknown Running Style: HARTSBEATLIKTHUNDR (6/1) [Jockey: Luzzi Lane J - Trainer: Falcone Jr Robert N].

[ConleyPicks]

Keeneland Select Pick of the Day | October 14, 2023
Oct. 12, 2023
Race 9 at Keeneland | Saturday October 14 | Post Time 5:16 PM Eastern

Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup Stakes Presented by Dixiana – Grade 1 | Purse $600,000 | One Mile and One Eighth on Turf | Fillies, Three Years Old


Analysis and Top contenders:


A VERY strong field of three year old filly turf stars lines up for this pretty prestigious race, one of the last grade 1 stakes restricted to three year olds on the year. As is the case with many a top turf race in North America, European horses have an edge, particularly three year olds at this time of year and they have faced tougher and are often farther along physically and mentally.

With that in mind Elusive Princess (2) gets top billing, although she has already made her U.S. debut. That came in August in the Saratoga Oaks Invitational where she rallied in visually impressive fashion from sixth with a quarter mile to go, nearly 12 paths wide on the turn, to get to the front in the stretch, before widening her lead. The effort earned a strong 106 Equibase Figure, the BEST among any North American effort any of the rest have put in. She comes back from a similar two month layoff, with Prat riding back and those are good signs for a repeat. Elusive Princess’ European form was strong as well as she was second in the Group 1 Prix Saint-Alary Stakes in May, at 10 furlongs, earning a 117 figure. The Saratoga Oaks was run at one mile and three-sixteenths so this mile and one-eighth trip is perfect for another big effort, particularly as none of the other four European horses, have run this far.

Mawj (4) has won five of eight races, including the Group 1 1000 Guineas Stakes when last seen in May. She’s never run farther than a mile but her breeding suggests this nine furlong trip is well within her reach. Top European jockey Oisin Murphy comes across the pond to ride and was up for the first time when Mawj won the 1000 Guineas and that effort earned a 121 figure which, if repeated, is certainly good enough to win here. Even though she opens at 2 to 1 compared to 3 to 1 for Elusive Princess, those odds likely being a bit low for a win bet, Mawj must be used as a win contender on any exacta or trifecta tickets played involving this race.

Sounds of Heaven (7) rounds out the trio of top contenders. She has only run five times and has won twice, but her best effort came when third in the Group 1 Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot in June, where she was beaten a neck for second and a length for the win and earned a 116 Equibase figure. She’s a daughter of Kingman which means this nine furlong trip she’s running for the first time is no problem at all. Like Mawj, Sounds of Heaven brings her European based jockey, Shane Foley, along to ride and he was aboard for one of her two wins. Just like the most recent races in Europe run by Elusive Princess (the Group 1 Prix de Diane or French Oaks) and my Mawj (the Group 1 1000 Guineas), Sounds of Heaven faced much tougher (than the North American horses have faced) when running in the Group 1 Prix Rothschild at the end of July and in spite of finishing sixth still earned a 109 speed figure better than any of the U.S. runners have earned.

For second position on some exacta tickets, and for third on trifecta tickets, we can include a few other, some which will offer double digit odds. That group consists of Lindy (6), Elounda Queen (8), Papilio (12) and Freydis the Red (13).

Bets:

Win: Elusive Princess (2) can and should be considered for a win bet at 8 to 5 or higher.

Mawj (4) can be considered for a win bet at 9 to 5 or higher.

Sounds of Heaven (7) can be considered for a win bet at 3 to 1 or higher.

Exactas:

Box Elusive Princess (2) and Mawj (4)

Box Elusive Princess (2), Mawj (4) and Sounds of Heaven (7)

Elusive Princess (2), Mawj (4) and Sounds of Heaven (7) over Elusive Princess (2), Mawj (4), Sounds of Heaven (7), Lindy (6), Elounda Queen (8), Papilio (12) and Freydis the Red (13).

Trifecta:

Elusive Princess (2), Mawj (4) and Sounds of Heaven (7) over Elusive Princess (2), Mawj (4), Sounds of Heaven (7), Lindy (6), Elounda Queen (8), Papilio (12) and Freydis the Red (13) over Elusive Princess (2), Mawj (4) and Sounds of Heaven (7)

[ConleyPicks]

Keeneland Tip Sheet - October 14

Oct. 13, 2023

Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 63% of the time at this track

RACE #1 $30,000 CLAIMING 7 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 1:00 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	8-1	6	Libertango	W A Rodriguez
PLACE	7-2	3	Canavall	L Saez
SHOW	5-2	5	Creative Way	T Gaffalione
WILD CARD	9-2	1	Stand for Freedom	C Landeros
ALTERNATE 1	20-1	9	Vale	R Santana Jr.
ALTERNATE 2	6-1	4	Shotshell	C A Torres
* EXACTA: 6-3 BOX, 3-5 BOX, 5-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/5/6 BOX, 1/3/5 BOX
RACE #2 $75,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 1:32 PM ET
BEST BET: #7 ANDYS CANDY
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	7-2	7	Andys Candy	F Arrieta
PLACE	20-1	4	Cajun Fool	J Rocco Jr.
SHOW	6-1	12	Patriot Hills	R Santana Jr.
WILD CARD	6-1	2	Tap Anchor	K J Asmussen
ALTERNATE 1	50-1	6	The Rush Is On	M Strandberg
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	11	Stormy Mesa	L Saez
* EXACTA: 7-4 BOX, 4-12 BOX, 12-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4/7/12 BOX, 2/4/12 BOX
RACE #3 $110,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING 1 1/16 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:04 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	4-5	6	Lightline	T Gaffalione
PLACE	6-1	5	Stretch Ride	M Chuan
SHOW	20-1	4	Sticky Note	A Achard
WILD CARD	7-2	3	Seize the Grey	J A Torres
ALTERNATE 1	9-2	7	Edified	J Rosario
ALTERNATE 2	10-1	2	Astronomico	C A Torres
* EXACTA: 6-5 BOX, 5-4 BOX, 4-3 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4/5/6 BOX, 3/4/5 BOX
RACE #4 $62,500 CLAIMING 6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:36 PM ET
BEST BET: #8 IT TAKES HEART
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-2	8	It Takes Heart	L Saez
PLACE	8-1	10	Shell Shock	K J Asmussen
SHOW	12-1	6	Coexist	E Morales
WILD CARD	2-1	9	Street Jam	C J Lanerie
ALTERNATE 1	6-1	5	Maotai	R Mojica Jr.
ALTERNATE 2	15-1	1	Willow Bend	I Ortiz Jr.
* EXACTA: 8-10 BOX, 10-6 BOX, 6-9 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 6/8/10 BOX, 6/9/10 BOX
RACE #5 $100,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 1 1/8 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 3:08 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	8-1	4	Boltoro	J Castellano
PLACE	3-1	9	Heckled	J Rosario
SHOW	5-2	2	Catmint	F Geroux
WILD CARD	15-1	5	English Treasure	A Beschizza
ALTERNATE 1	9-2	3	Zipadoo	F Prat
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	10	Southampton Dock	L Saez
* EXACTA: 4-9 BOX, 9-2 BOX, 2-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/4/9 BOX, 2/5/9 BOX
RACE #6 $100,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 1 1/16 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:40 PM ET
BEST BET: #12 DIVE BOMBER
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-2	12	Dive Bomber	F Geroux
PLACE	7-2	2	Dornoch	L Saez
SHOW	5-1	3	Lat Long	B J Hernandez Jr.
WILD CARD	8-1	4	Django	J R Leparoux
ALTERNATE 1	10-1	9	No Judgment	R Bejarano
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	5	Allied Victory	G Corrales
* EXACTA: 12-2 BOX, 2-3 BOX, 3-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/3/12 BOX, 2/3/4 BOX
RACE #7 $120,000 ALLOWANCE 1 1/2 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 4:12 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	6-5	1	Nineeleventurbo	F Prat
PLACE	15-1	3	Kitten Mischief	F Geroux
SHOW	15-1	5	Stolen Base	J Rosario
WILD CARD	12-1	4	Sharar	J R Velazquez
ALTERNATE 1	9-2	6	Foreign Relations	T Gaffalione
ALTERNATE 2	6-1	12	Microphone	E Morales
* EXACTA: 1-3 BOX, 3-5 BOX, 5-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/3/5 BOX, 3/4/5 BOX
RACE #8 $110,000 ALLOWANCE 6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:44 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	8-1	11	Rarify	J Rosario
PLACE	5-1	9	Zeitlos	C A Torres
SHOW	9-2	2	Pumpkin Scone	G Corrales
WILD CARD	10-1	7	You Little Vixen	T Gaffalione
ALTERNATE 1	7-2	10	Accede	I Ortiz Jr.
ALTERNATE 2	6-1	8	Little Blaze	J A Torres
* EXACTA: 11-9 BOX, 9-2 BOX, 2-7 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/9/11 BOX, 2/7/9 BOX
RACE #9 $600,000 STAKES 1 1/8 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 5:16 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	10-1	12	Papilio	J Castellano
PLACE	3-1	2	Elusive Princess	F Prat
SHOW	30-1	9	Heavenly Sunday	F Geroux
WILD CARD	2-1	4	Mawj	O Murphy
ALTERNATE 1	30-1	3	Safeen	C A Torres
ALTERNATE 2	20-1	5	Be Your Best	R Santana Jr.
* EXACTA: 12-2 BOX, 2-9 BOX, 9-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/9/12 BOX, 2/4/9 BOX
RACE #10 $120,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING 1 1/16 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 5:48 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	1-1	1	First Mission	L Saez
PLACE	6-1	2	Keystone Field	I Ortiz Jr.
SHOW	20-1	12	Implementation	T Gaffalione
WILD CARD	6-1	10	Creative Minister	B J Hernandez Jr.
ALTERNATE 1	8-1	7	Cooke Creek	J Rosario
ALTERNATE 2	10-1	13	Airtime	C A Torres
* EXACTA: 1-2 BOX, 2-12 BOX, 12-10 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/12 BOX, 2/10/12 BOX

[ConleyPicks]

Santa Anita Park Tip Sheet - October 14

Oct. 13, 2023

Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 68% of the time at this track

RACE #1 $32,000 CLAIMING 1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 3:30 PM ET
BEST BET: #9 IN YOUR FACE
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	7-2	9	In Your Face	J J Hernandez
PLACE	4-1	4	Katerini	U Rispoli
SHOW	6-1	6	Dolly May	A Ayuso
WILD CARD	8-1	8	Mimsy	G Franco
ALTERNATE 1	6-1	14	Violet Storm	A Aguilar
ALTERNATE 2	6-1	12	Downburst	H I Berrios
* EXACTA: 9-4 BOX, 4-6 BOX, 6-8 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4/6/9 BOX, 4/6/8 BOX
RACE #2 $61,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:00 PM ET
BEST BET: #5 NOTHING LIKE YOU
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	9-5	5	Nothing Like You	J J Hernandez
PLACE	5-2	2	Tianma	T J Pereira
SHOW	4-1	1	Dont Bring Crazy	R A Vazquez
WILD CARD	3-1	6	Flynns Chance	U Rispoli
ALTERNATE 1	8-1	3	Great Forty Eight	J Torrealba
ALTERNATE 2	10-1	4	Arctic Breeze	A Aguilar
* EXACTA: 5-2 BOX, 2-1 BOX, 1-6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/5 BOX, 1/2/6 BOX
RACE #3 $61,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 1 1/8 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 4:30 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	6-5	6	Legislator	U Rispoli
PLACE	4-1	2	Calm Sea	M Gutierrez
SHOW	8-1	7	St Ignacio	K J Desormeaux
WILD CARD	8-1	4	Hula Candy	H I Berrios
ALTERNATE 1	4-1	5	Smooth Salute	T J Pereira
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	3	My Partner Glen	T Baze
* EXACTA: 6-2 BOX, 2-7 BOX, 7-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/6/7 BOX, 2/4/7 BOX
RACE #4 $63,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 5:00 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	4-5	5	Super Chief	J J Hernandez
PLACE	3-1	1	Colt Fiction	R A Vazquez
SHOW	8-1	4	Sauls Call	K Frey
WILD CARD	5-1	6	El Diablo Rojo	G Franco
ALTERNATE 1	6-1	3	Stay in the Game	T J Pereira
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	2	Seattle Breakout	A Aguilar
* EXACTA: 5-1 BOX, 1-4 BOX, 4-6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/4/5 BOX, 1/4/6 BOX
RACE #5 $61,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 6 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 5:30 PM ET
BEST BET: #2 RESPECT THE CROWN
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	3-1	2	Respect the Crown	H I Berrios
PLACE	6-1	1	Not A Sinner	U Rispoli
SHOW	4-1	9	Cailin Dana	K J Desormeaux
WILD CARD	12-1	5	Feisty Mitole	A Aguilar
ALTERNATE 1	4-1	3	Ellie Moore	D A Herrera
ALTERNATE 2	5-1	6	Iscreamuscream	R A Vazquez
* EXACTA: 2-1 BOX, 1-9 BOX, 9-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/9 BOX, 1/5/9 BOX
RACE #6 $20,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING 5 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 6:00 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	3-1	9	Habeas	D A Herrera
PLACE	5-2	3	Chaos Reigns	U Rispoli
SHOW	10-1	10	King Zog	H I Berrios
WILD CARD	8-1	1	John Grey	H R Lopez
ALTERNATE 1	4-1	7	Take Action	J Torrealba
ALTERNATE 2	6-1	8	Pop Pops Ride	R A Vazquez
* EXACTA: 9-3 BOX, 3-10 BOX, 10-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/9/10 BOX, 1/3/10 BOX
RACE #7 $100,000 STAKES 6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DOWNHILL TURF - POST TIME: 6:30 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-2	6	Rose Maddox	T J Pereira
PLACE	2-1	5	Rose Dawson	J J Hernandez
SHOW	10-1	1	Organic	H I Berrios
WILD CARD	3-1	3	Ultimate Hy	U Rispoli
ALTERNATE 1	15-1	7	Madiha	V Espinoza
ALTERNATE 2	5-1	2	Kleen Karma	D A Herrera
* EXACTA: 6-5 BOX, 5-1 BOX, 1-3 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/5/6 BOX, 1/3/5 BOX
RACE #8 $12,500 CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 7:00 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	3-1	4	Sheza Girly Girl	A Alsagoor
PLACE	5-2	3	A New Peace	A Ayuso
SHOW	6-1	2	Never Sway	M E Smith
WILD CARD	6-1	10	Awesome Taylor	T Baze
ALTERNATE 1	8-1	7	Code Ribbon	R A Vazquez
ALTERNATE 2	20-1	5	Mo Connelly	C Figueroa
* EXACTA: 4-3 BOX, 3-2 BOX, 2-10 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/3/4 BOX, 2/3/10 BOX
RACE #9 $38,000 STARTER ALLOWANCE 1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 7:30 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	7-2	7	Big Coupe	D A Herrera
PLACE	6-1	4	Giovinazzo	T J Pereira
SHOW	6-1	5	Aurelian Man	G Franco
WILD CARD	3-1	2	Big Hat Willie	J J Hernandez
ALTERNATE 1	4-1	9	Caisson	A Ayuso
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	8	Low Expectations	M Gutierrez
* EXACTA: 7-4 BOX, 4-5 BOX, 5-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4/5/7 BOX, 2/4/5 BOX
RACE #10 $63,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING 1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 8:00 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	10-1	8	Clouseau	K J Desormeaux
PLACE	5-2	9	Stamp My Passport	J J Hernandez
SHOW	5-1	4	Arrowthegreat	V Espinoza
WILD CARD	6-1	7	Smart Mo	J Bravo
ALTERNATE 1	7-2	1	Ghazaaly	H Berrios
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	3	Finneus	U Rispoli
* EXACTA: 8-9 BOX, 9-4 BOX, 4-7 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4/8/9 BOX, 4/7/9 BOX
RACE #11 $22,500 CLAIMING 1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 8:30 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	3-1	8	Tiz Plus	R A Vazquez
PLACE	5-2	3	Overdue	T J Pereira
SHOW	20-1	9	Perfectionistic	J Torrealba
WILD CARD	8-1	5	Cali Bay	A Aguilar
ALTERNATE 1	4-1	7	Grape Nuts Warrior	K J Desormeaux
ALTERNATE 2	5-1	6	Birth of Cool	H I Berrios
* EXACTA: 8-3 BOX, 3-9 BOX, 9-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/8/9 BOX, 3/5/9 BOX