Saturday 10/14/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[ConleyPicks]

Handicappers' Consensus for Saturday, October 14

KEENELAND

	Scott Hazelton	Tom Leach	Jeremy Plonk	Caton Bredar	Kim Nelson
1	6 Libertango 9 Vale 5 Creative Way	5 Creative Way 3 Canavall 1 Stand for Freedom	10 Blocked 8 Bucktown 1 Stand for Freedom	5 Creative Way 6 Libertango 3 Canavall	1 Stand for Freedom 5 Creative Way 3 Canavall
2	5 Jilly's West 7 Andy's Candy 12 Patriot Hills	5 Jilly's West 3 Cruisin and Boozin 8 Stormin Love	12 Patriot Hills 5 Jilly's West 1 Salming	5 Jilly's West 7 Andy's Candy 9 Higginsville	5 Jilly's West 12 Patriot Hills 3 Cruisin and Boozin
3	7 Edified 5 Stretch Ride 6 Lightline	6 Lightline 7 Edified 3 Seize the Grey	6 Lightline 5 Stretch Ride 3 Seize the Grey	6 Lightline 7 Edified 5 Stretch Ride	6 Lightline 3 Seize the Grey 5 Stretch Ride
4	8 It Takes Heart 6 Coexist 9 Street Jam	8 It Takes Heart 7 You Gotta Have Fun (IRE) 9 Street Jam	8 It Takes Heart 4 Charriere 10 Shell Shock	8 It Takes Heart 9 Street Jam 3 Promise of Hope	8 It Takes Heart 9 Street Jam 5 Maotai
5	8 King's Secret (GB) 9 Heckled 2 Catmint	8 King's Secret (GB) 3 Zipadoo 2 Catmint	2 Catmint 9 Heckled 8 King's Secret (GB)	9 Heckled 3 Zipadoo 2 Catmint	9 Heckled 2 Catmint 10 Southampton Dock
6	2 Dornoch 12 Dive Bomber 9 No Judgment	2 Dornoch 6 Greers Ferry 3 Lat Long	12 Dive Bomber 5 Allied Victory 2 Dornoch	2 Dornoch 12 Dive Bomber 6 Greers Ferry	2 Dornoch 12 Dive Bomber 10 Tennessee Lamb
7	1 Nineeleventurbo 8 Out of Deductions 4 Sharar	6 Foreign Relations 1 Nineeleventurbo 13 Seven Charms	3 Kitten Mischief 1 Nineeleventurbo 4 Sharar	1 Nineeleventurbo 4 Sharar 6 Foreign Relations	6 Foreign Relations 10 Quadra Island 1 Nineeleventurbo
8	7 You Little Vixen 10 Accede 2 Pumpkin Scone	10 Accede 9 Zeitlos 2 Pumpkin Scone	11 Rarify 10 Accede 2 Pumpkin Scone	10 Accede 2 Pumpkin Scone 3 Mucho Macho Girl	11 Rarify 2 Pumpkin Scone 7 You Little Vixen
9	4 Mawj (IRE) 7 Sounds of Heaven (GB) 9 Heavenly Sunday	7 Sounds of Heaven (GB) 2 Elusive Princess (FR) 4 Mawj (IRE)	11 Prerequisite 4 Mawj (IRE) 2 Elusive Princess (FR)	12 Papilio (IRE) 4 Mawj (IRE) 1 Mission of Joy	2 Elusive Princess (FR) 11 Prerequisite 3 Safeen
10	1 First Mission 8 Saqeel 10 Creative Minister	1 First Mission 10 Creative Minister 2 Keystone Field	1 First Mission 10 Creative Minister 8 Saqeel	1 First Mission 10 Creative Minister 12 Implementation	1 First Mission 8 Saqeel 10 Creative Minister

[ConleyPicks]

Scott Hazelton

Happy Saturday at Keeneland!!

1st Race
6-9-5

#6 Libertango takes a drop in class that will help. This horse is much better today and should be forward and be able to stick around longer with that job in class. #9 Vale has moved around to different barns via the claim box as of late and easily fits in amongst this group as a contender more so than what the morning line suggests at 20 to 1. #5 Creative Way is the lake least favorite in here but to me is not an absolute stand out as he cuts back in distance, and has never sprinted before, but he does come off of a nice one at Churchill Downs.


2nd Race
5-7-12

#5 Jilly’s West debuts in a maiden claiming race for trainer, Wesley Ward, who wins at a godly 38% of the time when he debuts horses in maiden claimers. The one to beat. #7 Andy’s Candy had one run so far in his Young career and it wasn't even six place finish after not breaking all that fast. Should be better today with the move down in class. #12 Patriot Hills also takes a big move down in class and change the surfaces to dirt and to me has more of a dirt Pedigree then turf which he debuted on.


3rd Race
7-5-6

#7 Edified is a well bred son of Tapit, 1/2 brother to G1 winner, Constellation. He walked out of the gate in his most recent race against much tougher, and should be sharper today dropping down in class from a grade 3 stakes at Saratoga. #5 Stretch Ride won his debut at Horseshoe Indianapolis, coming from off the pace with a wide move. It was very strong. This is definitely a move up in competition but here's a horse. That's already a winner in one race. #6 Lightline what is a flashy debut winner at Horseshoe Indianapolis as well and I think there's a chance that he gets over bad, but you still have to respect the horse that won by 13 lengths, and his only start.


4th Race
8-6-9

#8 It Takes Heart was claim last time out of a huge win up at Saratoga, and has been put into a very competitive spot given what she has done thus far in her career. Clearly, the one to beat to me in this race. #6 Coexist was a flashy winner last time out in upset fashion but he's been in consistent good form as of late and I don't think that that race and that win can be disrespected here today.



5th Race
8-9-2

#8 King’s Secret add blinkers today, and also at the distance in her race with a Pedigree that screams for longer distances I like these changes enough to make my top selection. #9 Heckled is a well bred Godolphin Fiilly, who has knocked on the door several times as of late and easily could break through today. I think the fast ground today will help her as she likes to sit close to the pace. #2 Catmint it's 52 in the morning line and it's already run well at this distance, something that a lot of these horses cannot say that they have done, but she might before out of it, which cost her in the end.



6th Race
2-12-9

#2 Dornoch is a full brother to KY Derby winner, Mage, who has run too good races so far in his career. He was second against “Noted’ in stakes Company and his most recent star, and that horse was second in the G2 Castle & Key Bourbon Stakes here on opening weekend. Have to respect his two races in the companies kept in those races. #12 Dive Bomber it's Colorado ground for the first time in his career and has a Pedigree to do so. Just not in love with the outside draw that's giving the number two horse and not over him today. #9 No Judgment also stretches out to for the race after one sprint and should appreciate it based on his breeding.


7th Race
1-8-4

#1 Nineeleventurbo comes in from Southern California with extremely good form and easily could've run in yesterdays G2 Sycamore Stakes. But they opted for the easier route, and I like to move because he has a stand out, but only in this race, but probably the most likely winner of the day. #8 Out of Deductions is a well bred horse will be testing class but he will be better 30 to 1 in the morning. Lyne suggests he gets jockey Luis Saez in the saddle. #4 Sharar should be able to close today as longer distance lay back and make one run with one of the best ever do it in the saddle, John Velazquez.



8th Race
7-10-2

#7 You Little Vixen write a very fast race on debut in Iowa and one by 7 1/2 lengths. Easily can handle this bunch here today don't overlook her because of where she's coming from. #10 Accede gets back on dirt and cuts back in distance, and her two sprint races have been two of her best races so far. #2 Pumpkin Scone could easily make the lead in this race, or at least make the leading hold on for a piece of it in the end.


9th Race
4-7-9

#4 Mawj has missed a lot of time this year and comes into this race having not run in over five months. She won the G1 1000 Guineas, one of the premiere races for three year old fillies in England. This race is being used as a steppingstone to the Breeders’ Cup, and if she is at her best, she will be very tough today for Godolphin. #7 Sounds of Heaven has held very good company in her career as she makes her US debut. If she handles the fast ground, which I think you have to expect she will otherwise she will not be here. She will run a big race. #9 Heavenly Sunday has speed to carry this field around there and try to blitz them at a price. She's trained by Brad Cox who doesn't just show up in grade one races to simply have a runner.


10th Race
1-8-10

#1 First Mission won the G3 Stonestreet Lexington Stakes in the spring here at Keeneland. But that's the last time we saw him run. If he's anywhere near what we have seen from him in his career, he will be awfully tough and be primed for a big stake race in his next start and obviously a big 2024. #8 Saqeel beat a group of younger horses in his most recent start at Churchill Downs. He's a seasoned five-year-old that absolutely can handle this group and if you're looking for a very live price play, this is your guy in race number 10 to close out the card. #10 Creative Minister has made a lot of money in his career with only two wins I'm asking over a half $1 million in earnings. He'll try to come running out them late but it may be tough to do but if you're playing wagers that include horses finishing second third fourth or fifth, this is a horse you have to include.

[ConleyPicks]

Jeremy Plonk

Jeremy Plonk’s Keeneland Keys for Saturday, October 14, 2023

What to Watch for Today: An absolutely elite cast of 3-year-old fillies will battle in the Grade 1 $600,000 Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup in Race 9. English 1000 Guineas winner Mawj brings impeccable credentials, along with French 1000 Guineas runner-up Lindy and Group 1 Coronation third-place finisher Sounds of Heaven. They’ll meet up with French export Elusive Princess, already a winner stateside of the Saratoga Oaks Invitational.

Today’s Keeneland Turf Pick Three races will be Races 5,7,9 for the $3 minimum, a 15% takeout wager.

Handicapping Head-start: Be sure to join me at 8:30 pm ET on the night before each racing day’s card for the Keeneland Look-Ahead video podcast. It streams live on the Keeneland YouTube page as well on Twitter @Keenelandracing, @BetKeeneland and @Horseplayernow.

Weather: A 40% chance of morning showers are in the forecast with temperatures in the upper 60s.

My Selections: You can get my top 3 picks in each race on the track simulcast feed before each race as well on the Keeneland.com handicappers’ consensus page (https://www.keeneland.com/racing/wag...pers-consensus).

Keeneland Handicapping 101: Most information is gleaned from the free Keeneland Handicapping database (http://apps.keeneland.com/awstats/Default.asp) that you can manipulate and search for yourself as well!


1st Race
Non-winners of 2 lifetime (N2L) claimers sprint the about 7-furlong distance to open the early pick five. Early speed has been potent in the 19 such Fall Meet N2L 7F claimers we’ve had – 15 winners were within 1-1/2 lengths of the lead after the first half-mile. Favorites are just 4-for-19 and we’ve had as many winners at 11-1 or more (4) than chalks. Blocked went wire-to-wire in winning an Indy MSW, arguably the best victory on paper in this field. Bucktown (MSW, Tampa) and Libertango (MSW, Turfway) could also be in that quality discussion, but neither has the early speed of Blocked.



2nd Race
Two-year-old maiden claimers match up at 6 furlongs for the start of the early pick four. Lean heavily toward experienced runners here, who have won 39 of 49 such MCL juvenile dashes in past Fall Meets on dirt. Favorites underperform slightly around 30% with an average winner a very juicy 7.2-to-1 odds. Churchill preppers have 20 of the wins (no other circuit more than 5). This field includes The Rush Is On, Andy’s Candy and Stormin Love via CD. Patriot Hills doesn’t check a lot of trends boxes, but could improve on the surface change, drop in class and bullet workout for high-percentage trainer Robertino Diodoro at a square price (6-1 ML).



3rd Race
First-level (N1X) allowance 2-year-olds stretch out to 1-1/16 miles on the dirt. The most famous alumni of these very races was Gun Runner in the 2015 Fall Meet. Average winners in these races are just 7-2 odds. Churchill preppers have 7 wins, leading Kentucky Downs with 4. The CD set includes 5 of the 7 entrants. Trainer Brad Cox has 5 Fall Meet 2YO ALW wins on dirt (2 at this distance), most of any trainer and sends out Lightline, a dominant Indy winner in his debut. Cox’s horses are exceptional at Kee in 1-1/16 miles dirt races over the years and Lightline is the horse to beat, regardless of his last start locale.



4th Race
Dual-condition claimers square off at 6-1/2 furlongs. We have a few 3-year-olds who already cleared the non-winners of 3 lifetime condition be eligible here that are interesting, It Takes Heart and Coexist. The historical trends for Keeneland Fall Meet dual-condition claimers are formful races with an average winner at 4-1 odds and less than 5% won by horses 10-1 or more … though 15-1 Navy Soul popped here Sunday in a similar spot, while odds-on favorite Sicilian Grandma scored as chalk in Wednesday’s opener. Churchill preppers win more than a third of them overall and tower over the prep locale competition, though Horseshoe Indianapolis is competitive with the others and included Sunday’s winner from Indy. The CD crew here is Roc’s Princess, Promise of Hope, Coexist and Street Jam – but only Coexist interests on paper to this eye. I’ll lean to It Takes Heart for high-percentage claiming trainer Robert Falcone via NY.



5th Race
The Keeneland Turf Pick Three and the pick six launch with a maiden special weight test at 1-1/8 miles on grass. Coming into the week, we’ve only had 9 prior Fall Meet elder MSWs on turf at this 9F trip, 6 of them won by horses who last raced at 9F or longer. First-time starters have been blanked. The average winner has been a healthy 7-1 odds. The average winner in these races is just over 2 lengths off the lead after the opening half-mile, showing more propensity for early position than all other classes of races at Keeneland for this trip/surface, where the average winner is more than 3 lengths off the front at that juncture. Kentucky Downs and NYRA share about one-quarter each of the Fall Meet MSW turf winners as prep locales and the best places to look – but there are 7 such KD options in the main body of this field. Catmint intrigues off a CD runner-up at this distance as a daughter of Kitten’s Joy and Antonoe, the dam winner of the Just A Game and third in the Diana. Heckled is a half-sister to $1.1 million earner Pixelate.



6th Race
Two-year-old maiden special weight performers stretch their legs over 1-1/16 miles on the main track in the first leg of the late pick five. These historically are very formful races when 2YOs route on the dirt in MSWs. Favorites have won 22 of 48 offered with an average winner just 7-2 odds. Only 3 first-time starters have won, so demand some experience. Churchill preppers have a big 23-9 edge over NYRA. Seven here exit CD races. Only 9 of these 48 have been won by horses making a surface change like several of these attempt, so I’ll lean to the horses exiting dirt preps. Sires Liam’s Map (Lat Long) and Omaha Beach (Allied Victory, Dive Bomber) already have a pair of winners on the dirt at the young ’23 Fall Meet.



7th Race
This turf marathon allowance at 1-1/2 miles serves as second leg of the Keeneland Turf Pick Three and kicks off the late pick four. We’ve had 35 of these in our database in Fall Meets and no winner has been over 9-1 odds (average just 7-2 odds). Deep closers have ruled with an average winner 5-3/4 lengths back after the first half-mile. Kentucky Downs and NYRA preppers each have 10 wins. Note 27 of 35 winners prepped at 1-1/8 miles or longer last out. Kitten Mischief is a son of Kitten’s Point, who won the 12 furlong Dowager over this course to end her career. Trainer Mike Maker’s 5 such wins are tied (with Graham Motion) for most and he’ll saddle Stolen Base.



8th Race
Entry-level (N1X) allowance sprinters clash at 6-1/2 furlongs on dirt. The historical trends for Keeneland Fall Meet first-level dirt ALW races is to look for Churchill preppers, who have dominated. Horses who added distance since their last start have won two-thirds of the Fall Meet ALW sprints at this trip. Only 2 of 32 winners rallied from more than 3 lengths back after the first half-mile to win, so lean speed. Rarify comes off a year layoff as the lone local dirt winner in the lineup, winning easily in maiden company here for Wesley Ward. He’s fast and adds distance, fitting the profile similar to Pumpkin Scone, Mucho Macho Girl and You Little Vixen.



9th Race
The Grade 1 $600,000 Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup is the Saturday feature race and final leg of the Keeneland Turf Pick Three. In the last 17 years of our online database, favorites are 4-17 in the QE2, but note 11 of the last 12 winners were 5-1 or less. This has been a great betting race in that respect. Nine of the last 17 winners came via the NYRA circuit (Sar/Bel/Aqu). The last 9 winners have been an average of just three-quarters of a length off the lead after the opening half-mile and no winner closed more than 3 lengths. The trends point to a NY prepper with some early pace effectiveness, which Prerequisite and Heavenly Sunday would fit. Those runners contend but must face exceptional European raiders like Mawj and the second-time French raider (via NY, a plus) Elusive Princess.



10th Race
The curtain falls with a second-level (N2X) allowance dirt route at 1-1/16 miles. Spring Meet Lexington Stakes winner First Mission makes a much anticipated return to action for Brad Cox. His victory here came over the eventual Pacific Classic winner (Arabian Lion) and Travers runner-up (Disarm). Cox trainees win more than 30% at 1-1/16 miles on the Kee dirt. Now get this: those Cox trainees are 11: 7-0-1 when drawing the rail at this trip, like First Mission has Saturday. This classy field includes 2022 Preakness third-place finisher Creative Minister, who broke his maiden over this track and distance during the 2022 Spring Meet.

[ConleyPicks]

Ed DeRosa

1st Race
This is one of the most competitive races I've ever handicapped, as I truly believe six of the ten entrants have good chances of winning, and depending on how the betting goes, good chances of being worth a wager. #6 Libertango returns to dirt for trainer Wayne Catalano and looks to have a nice run behind the speed.

PICKS: 6-8-7-4

2nd Race
Nothing I've seen from those who have run make me think they're worth taking over any of the newcomers here. We're going to trust the Horse Racing Nation first-timer Power Ratings report to point us in the right direction, and that leads us to #5 Jilly's West for trainer Wesley Ward, who is having a good meet and needs no introduction with two-year-olds at Keeneland. #3 Cruisin and Boozin has been locally prepared by trainer Doug O'Neill's team and must be used given he shares a 5-star rating with our top pick.

PICKS: 5-3-11-10-1

3rd Race
We're 5-3 in the second, and we're 5-3 in the third, but that's not really the story here considering we're trying to beat a horse who's 4-to-5 on the morning line. #6 Lightline certainly looked great on debut at Horseshoe Indianapolis, but winning at a mile out of the box does not require the brilliance that some of these have already shown. #5 Stretch Ride was very professional on debut, getting a good number with an off-the-pace trip. #3 has Seize the Grey hasn't been able to get up against stakes company but the numbers fit with any of these, and the class relief while stretching out should help this D. Wayne Lukas trainee improve.

PICKS: 5-3-2-7 against 6

4th Race
I'm choosing to believe what we saw last time from #8 It Takes Heart, who got a big number in that win in which he was also claimed. The barn changed, but the jockey didn't, as Luis Saez retains the mount; I always see that as a positive sign. #5 Maotai comes in off a long layoff but her best fits with these. Of course, getting her best nearly 8 months since her last race is no guarantee, but the price is right. I'm not as against #9 Street Jam as I am other favorites on the card, but 2-to-1 is a little light in my estimation since if It Takes Heart runs remotely close to his her last she's a winner.

PICKS: 8-5-9

5th Race
Not a lot of love for #2 Catmint here, the 5-to-2 morning line choice who is just only as good as the rest of these at best. No thank you.
#4 Boltoro has had a lot of chances, but she makes it interesting with 5 seconds from 10 lifetime starts. Don't love the futility in the win column, but 8-to-1 would be a fair price. #9 Heckled only has two 9-furlong races, and they were her two best. Let's hope #3 Zipadoo isn't named for my performance today. I figure she'll get the jump on our top pick.

PICKS: 4-9-3 against 2

6th Race
#4 Django took a big step forward last out, making the lead late before getting collared and finishing second while earning one of the best numbers in the field. She had gate issues in her first two career starts, and while that was improved last out, it still wasn't a great start. At 8-to-1 morning line I'll gamble on her ability to put it all together today. #3 Lat Long is the uncoupled stablemate of our top pick, and I like the stretch out here. #2 Dornoch and #12 Dive Bomber are both short prices on the morning line with a penchant for early zip. I'll play the race for one of the McPeeks to run them down.

PICKS: 4-3-2-12

7th Race
#1 Nineeleventurbo is certainly the one to beat here, but 6-to-5 in a full field when he's never gone this far and his speed ratings are only as good as some of these? No thanks. I may be a profligate when it comes to my funds, but not here.
#4 Sharar has yet to go this far, but he stretched out last out and improved despite a wide journey. #7 O P Firecracker is a huge price on the morning line (30-to-1), and I just can't ignore the Frank Angst jockey angle here since Cristian Torres was aboard for the serviceable turf bow and returns here.

PICKS: 4-7-2-3 against 1

8th Race
Finally one of the more straightforward races on the day (and really a straightforward double given my opinion race 9), as #10 Accede returns to dirt second off the layoff and has some good races to run back to sprinting. #9 Zeitlos is also making that turf-to-dirt move.

PICKS: 10-9-11-2

9th Race
It's the feature and last Grade 1 race in Kentucky until Thanksgiving weekend at Churchill Downs. And what a race this is to send Grade 1 races to Santa Anita Park, as 13 entered with 12 able to line up for the Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup.
I have an extremely strong lean toward #4 Mawj, who is the only filly to defeat Tahyira in her illustrious three-time-Group-1-winning career. A couple minor negatives for Mawj are the layoff, and that she's never gone 9 furlongs, which is why I'll be a stickler for my fair odds off that 2-to-1 morning line.
It's important to note that #13 Freydis the Red is an also eligible. If she scratches then Mawj's fair odds go to 3-to-2. If Freydis stays in, then I think she's playable with Mawj in the gimmicks.

PICKS: 4-13-7-8

10th Race
The nightcap could send us out with a bang as we're once again opposing a heavy favorite (from the barn of Brad Cox again no less). Or maybe it'll bang us. Either way, I can't take this short of a price on #1 First Mission off a six-month layoff--even if he was going to be second choice to Kentucky Derby winner Mage in the Preakness Stakes before scratching the day before the race.
#8 Saqeel is going be winging it on the front end, and we saw trainer Diodoro work that to his advantage int he Friday nightcap, and it certainly helps that Saqeel is 5-for-15 at this distance. #2 Keystone Field returns to his conditions and Irad Ortiz Jr. coming along for the ride is interesting. If the race completely falls apart then #10 Creative Minister will benefit most.

PICKS: 8-2-10 against 1

[ConleyPicks]

Tom Leach

There's a strong European flavor to this year's QEII Challenge Cup and that adds some mystery to a typically tough handicapping challenge in that race. For these three-year old fillies, it's sometimes more about projecting improvement than analyzing current form. Good luck!

1st Race
5-Creative Way was claimed last time by a barn that hits at a 21 percent rate with newcomers to the barn and this gelding comes off an impressive win that produced a career-best speed figure. 3-Canavall has been improved since returning from a break and the win last time was his best yet, albeit against lesser foes. 1-Stand for Freedom drops in class and this barn's runners have been firing but this gelding's come from behind style may comprimise his chances.


2nd Race
5-Jilly's West gets the nod here as a Wesley Ward-trained first-timer with some good local works. Both the trainer and jock are off to good starts at the meet. 3-Cruisin and Boozin has also worked well here for a barn that certainly win with a firster. 8-Stormin Love hasn't shown much yet but the move into maiden-claiming company could produce an improved performance. 7-Andy's Candy makes a similar drop in class and had a slow start in his debut.


3rd Race
6-Lightline was dazzling in his debut win and has followed it with good workouts. The only question mark is that he's facing winners for the first time so if he loses, it will likely to be a more experienced foe like 7-Edified or 3-Seize the Grey. The former competed in two graded stakes races in the last two starts and the latter was fourth in a grade 3 last time out and he's been producing consistent numbers through the last three starts.


4th Race
8-It Takes Heart made a dramatic move up in form last time out at Saratoga, romping by almost ten lengths while producing a career-best Beyer figure. And he was claimed out of that race by an outfit that wins at a high rate when running a horse first time off the claim. 7-You Gotta Have Fun makes her second start for the Maker barn. If you write off her first out for Maker to a disdain for turf, this one figures to have a shot on the class drop. 9-Streeet Jam has been improved since a short break but her late-running style may hurt her chances.


5th Race
8-King's Secret is a 10-1 shot with a big chance to get the win here. He had some trouble in his last outing at Kentucky Downs but the previous race's 74 Beyer figure would put her right in the mix in this spot and this barn does well when adding blinkers. 3-Zipadoo ran her best race in the first start of the year last month and the switch to Prat in the saddle is noteworthy. 2-Catmint ran well last time out at this nine-furlong distance. 6-Blessing the Flag ran a race two starts back that would make her competitive and then she had a wide trip last time out at Kentucky Downs, limiting her chances of winning. 9-Heckled is worth a look off consistent recent form.


6th Race
2-Dornoch ran a good second as the favorite in a stakes race last time out and the added distance in this spot should enhance her chances. 6-Greers Ferry has run three times but only once did he gets what is likely his best matchup--going long on the dirt--and he produced a solid effort. 3-Lat Long was a rally third in his debut and this barn's runners often improve with more distance. 4-Django ran a much-improved race last out when he got to run around two turns. 12-Dive Bomber ran well in his second outing but this is a horrible post for this distance.


7th Race
6-Foreign Relations gets to run against softer competition than he's seen in recent starts and this gelding ran very well in his only start on this turf course (although a foul cost him the win). 1-Nineeleventurbo has been consistent in his five starts this year with superior speed figures but he hasn't played as tough of a schedule as the top pick. 13-Seven Charms has run well in two races against the '1' horse. 2-Altazor ran a much-improved race last time for a cagey barn that puts its runners in good spots.


8th Race
The turf experiment didn't go well last time for 10-Accede but she was beaten by grade 1-level stakes winners in the previous three spots. The softer company here makes her the top pick. 9-Zeitlos has been consistent and her early speed enchances her chances of beating the '10' horse. 2-Pumpkin Scone romped against maidens in her third start. 11-Rarify comes off a layoff but ran well on this track last fall. I could see any of these four horses getting to the winner's circle.


9th Race
In the grade 1 Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup, there's a strong European flavor and there's an 8-1 shot that merits a long look. 7-Sounds of Heaven was a good third in a group 1 race at the Royal Ascot meet and her pedigree suggests she'll relish getting more distance. Also, the trainer has said her charge prefers the firmer ground she'll get in this spot and the soft turf last time is why you can forgive that subpar run. 2-Elusive Princess was smashing in her US debut at Saratoga and was second in a group 1 overseas. 4-Mawj has top-class form, too, but the distance is a question mark. 8-Elouda Queen has won two of her last three and that last outing was in group 3 company.


10th Race
1-First Mission was a good-looking winner of the Lexington Stakes here back in April and was being pointed for the Preakness off that effort. If he's ready off the layoff, he wins. If he loses, I think 10-Creative Minister will pull the upset as he's more battle-tested and he loves the Keeneland surface. 2-Keystone Field has seven wins and a lot of graded stakes experience.

[ConleyPicks]

Ellis Starr

Saturday October 14, 2023
Race 7 at Keeneland
Post Time 4:12 p.m. eastern time
Key Win Contender(s) in preference order with minimum odds for considering win bets:
#3 Kitten Mischief – minimum win betting odds 3 to 1
#1 Nineeleventurbo – minimum win betting odds – 3 to 1
#6 Foreign Relations – minimum win betting odds – 3 to 1
Kitten Mischief is one of only two horses in this full field who has won at this mile and one-half turf trip and that could be a significant factor. He earned that win at the one lower non-winners of one other than maiden level in January with a strong off-the-pace effort after racing about two lengths behind the early leader. Nearly four months later he ran in a race identical to this one, here at Keeneland, and was well-regarded at 7 to 2, finishing fourth of nine. He had also run well over the Keeneland turf last fall when third of nine. After the race in April at Keeneland, he moved to dirt for a stakes race at this distance and was fourth again. Then he cut back to nine furlongs for his most recent race and didn’t do much, ending up fifth of eight. With this race being a return to the distance and surface of his win, and with his fourth place effort at this class level in the spring at Keeneland also a decent effort, plus with a jockey change to Florent Geroux for trainer Thomas, who wins at a very high 25% rate in nearly every type of race this year, Kitten Mischief gets slight preference as he may go to post at high odds.
Nineeleventurbo is likely to be the public favorite because his most recent race was against tougher horses in the Grade 2 Del Mar Handicap, where he led in the stretch and finished second of 11. That was at the distance of one mile and three-eighths, slightly horses than this mile and one-half distance. He won at the mile and three-eighths distance prior to that, for his fourth straight win, and he missed by a neck in his only previous race at Keeneland (in the spring of 2021). Although he has run against tougher, and is in top form, his overall record of 4-6-3 isn’t so strong as to warrant betting him to win at low odds but he is certainly capable of winning and should be considered for wagers like the exacta as he could add to his consistent record of finishing first, or second.
Foreign Relations is also entered in Friday’s Sycamore Stakes as of this writing, but I believe his trainer will opt for this easier spot. He won easily here in the spring at this distance at the one lower allowance level, but was disqualified and placed last. He proved that win was no fluke by winning the Louisville Stakes the following month at the distance, at Churchill Downs, but is winless in three races since then. The last two of those three were in significantly higher class levels as both were graded stakes, so the change in class and return to a track he’s won over bode well for a return to top form good enough to win.

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Kim Nelson

Saturdays card features a very competitive Grade 1 Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup presented by Dixiana. A full field of twelve 3 year old fillies will go to post.

1st Race
#1 Stand for Freedom drops to a new low in the claiming ranks and the Wilkes barn has been hot so far this meet. #5 Creative Way is first off the claim for a barn that does very well with this type. He is fresh off the maiden win. #3 Canavall is also fresh off the maiden win and can boast the best last Beyer Speed figure. Top Picks #1, #5 and #3


2nd Race
#1 Jilly's West is a firster for the Ward barn. Barn is quite successful with debut runners especially 2 year olds. She also has the home court advantage. #12 Patriot Hills showed little in his first try but the well bred colt is due to improve here. #3 Cruisin and Boozin has been working well over the local going and expect a big effort. Top Picks #1, #12 and #3


3rd Race
#6 Lightline comes over as the 4-5 early favorite and deservedly so off his debut effort. A runaway winner at first asking for the formidable Brad Cox barn. #3 Seize the Grey has faced tough stakes company in his last 2 races and has been very competitive. Sharp works for the Coach and the softer company should suit him. #5 Stretch Ride is another coming off a maiden win at first asking. Top Picks #6, #3 and #5


4th Race
#8 It Takes Heart is fresh off the claim and comes over with a barn that gets 30% winners with this type. She has early foot and could take this field gate to wire. #9 Street Jam just missed in her last start and recent form suggest this company will suit her. #5 Maotai is making her first off the layoff. Past form is strong enough to expect her to land a share. Top Picks #8, #9 and #5


5th Race
#9 Heckled has landed 2nd place finishes in her last 4 starts. She stretches back out off her last and she looks capable of finding the wire first with these. #2 Catmint tried this distance on the grass last time out and landed a 2nd. That was only her 2nd career start and she should be quite competitive here. #10 Southampton Dock is actually backing up in distance and expect a strong kick down the lane from her. Top Picks #9, #2 and #10


6th Race
#2 Dornoch is an improving sort making his 3rd career start. He exits tough stakes company and expect him to show up sharp here. #12 Dive Bomber has posted strong Beyer numbers in both his career starts and if he can overcome the outside post should be tough. #10 Tennessee Lamb was slow out of the gates last time but look for improvement here and could boost exotics. Top Picks #2, #12 and #10


7th Race
#6 Foreign Relations won the Grade 3 Louisville at this distance during the spring meet at Churchill. He didn't take well to Kentucky Downs last time out but can overlook that one and expect a big effort here. #10 Quadra Island comes in off a win going the route of ground on the grass. That was his first off the layoff and like the Kitten's Joy gelding to make a big impact here. #1 Nineeleventurbo is a consistent sort going routes on the grass. He comes over as the early 6-5 favorite. Top Picks #6, #10 and #1


8th Race
#11 Rarify has been on a long vacation but barn is so good off the layoff and she gets Lasix for the first time this start. She broke her maiden over the Keeneland course and should be quick enough to overcome the outside post. #2 Pumpkin Scone blew away a field of maidens in her last start. She should be sharp again here. #7 You Little Vixen is another coming off an impressive maiden win. She lands Tyler Gaffalione in the saddle. Top Picks #11, #2 and #7


9th Race
#2 Elusive Princess exits a Grade 3 win which was her first start on this side of the pond. She is an impressive sort that seldom misses a check and she looks well prepared for this task. #11 Prerequisite is 2 for 2 at this distance including a Grade 2 win. Chad Brown teams up with Irad Ortiz, Jr and can't leave this filly out. #4 Mawj brings a 3 race win streak including a Grade 1 win. She is the early favorite at 2-1. Top Picks #2, #11 and #4


10th Race
#1 First Mission won the Grade 3 Lexington in his last start and has taken the summer off. If he comes back as strong he will be very tough to beat. #8 Saqeel has only missed one check this year in 8 starts. His Beyer numbers are consistent and he has the early foot to gain good early position. #10 Creative Minister can bring a late kick that could make the rush to the wire very exciting. Top Picks #1, #8 and #10

[ConleyPicks]

Laurel Park Picks by the Experts from Laurel
maryland millions Day

Tim Tullock Kali Francois
R1: 4-11-3 3-8-1
R2: 3-6-13 3-9-5
R3: 4-3-6 3-4-6
R4: 9-14-6 6-10-9
R5: 8-9-7 6-9-7
R6: 6-11-9 11-6-5
R7: 4-7-5 7-4-5
R8: 5-9-3 5-3-7
R9: 6-12-11 6-12-4
R10: 5-10-2 10-5-8
R11: 6-4-2 6-2-1
R12: 9-7-5 3-4-9

Tim's Best Bet: R1 #4 Chelichna
Tim's Price Play: R10 #5 Malibu Beauty

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BRIAN W. SPENCER'S DAILY PICKS

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Keeneland - Race #6

#7 Coppola	I honestly think you can make a case for most of these relative to their price in a really fun race, and this has held good form while proving competitive with some of the players he'll meet today. Draws well for a perfect first-jump trip if he's good enough.
#6 Olympic Runner	I really liked his last finishing effort on a course that wasn't super kind to those types this season, and he is probably going to find a similar closing trip while turning back a bit. He scored at this sharper trip two starts back, and I don't think he's out of the question here with something similar.
#2 Live in the Dream	He'll make his North American debut off an upset win at 28/1, and he probably has enough pace to get in the mix early on if he can avoid missing what is sometimes a troublesome American start at a short trip that doesn't leave a lot of room for error.
Race Summary	Coppola is one of many with a claim on this, and I'm hoping he'll be able to punch home from a dreamy spot at a midrange price. Think there are a few who are going to be looking to land that exact same trip, and this is a spot in which I really wouldn't argue with anyone.

Keeneland - Race #9

#7 Just Steel	Giving him a chance to bounce back a bit here, as he might find a pressing spot right up near the top with a bit more modest tempo while trying two turns. Decent price with a small shot today.
#9 Locked	He finished behind the top choice in his debut run before graduating by better than seven lengths when stretching out for the first time, and I wouldn't be shocked to see him with some more upside at this point. Can be tough.
#5 West Saratoga	He's aiming for his third straight today, and he has been in the mix with a couple of the interesting players lined up today. Worth a look if the price is right.
Race Summary	Just Steel has a little appeal for me in here, as he's fast enough to be right up on the splits, and I'm hoping a few of these will want to see if they can settle a bit while going long.

Keeneland - Race #11

#5 Miyagi	Get a look at him on the track and tote, but he's been drilling locally ahead of this and snags Gaffalione for the first trip to post. Could see it.
#7 Booth	He feels like the type that Asmussen might have ready to roll in a spot like this, as this team has done some serious work with similar horses in the past here. Obvious chance on paper.
#1 Nash	He's bred to be a good one and might be solid enough to win going short at first asking, but I'm more interested to see what this guy's bringing going a mile or so in his next start.
Race Summary	Think there are a few potentially interesting players out on the also-eligible list, so make sure to take another spin through after scratches. Miyagi has the most appeal on paper for me in here, and I like that Gaffalione signs on at first asking for a team that can get the right ones ready.

[ConleyPicks]

FRANK CARULLI'S DAILY PICKS

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Laurel Park - Race #2

#3 SHINY SLAM (4-1)	Rallied widest in lane to win in second try off Gonzalez claim after pace fell apart.
#5 EVERLY’S GIRL (1-1)	Proven allowance form against Cal breds, first start off cross-country journey.
#1 HAPPY CLOUDS (7-2)	First or second in 9 of 10 starts this year, all at 2-1 odds or less.
Race Summary	SHINY SLAM benefitted from an ideal set-up but raced 7-wide in the stretch to prevail. She surged late to defeat the second favorite, earning the top speed figure of her career. She has her work cut out to repeat, but the price should be right for a win and place wager.

Laurel Park - Race #3

#7 LA FANTASMA (7-2)	Tries to follow in turf footsteps of her dam in debut route attempt.
#3 WARIDI CANDI (10-1)	Took lead while in-hand on turn, out-gamed by the fave in improved try.
#1 CHICKEN PARM (9-2)	Russell firster has bloodlines to run long; sire was G-I winner of $2.9 million.
Race Summary	LA FANTASMA shows a three-month break in her workout tab, but she is in capable hands to win at first asking and her dam, Special Event, was multiple graded stakes-placed on turf. Play a 7-ALL exacta.

Laurel Park - Race #8

#3 CALL ANOTHER PLAY (4-1)	Ability showed on turf and dirt, expect another big effort in third start.
#6 CAP CLASSIQUE (5-2)	Stalked 3- and 4-wide, wore down 2-1 first-time starter to prevail.
#4 BEACHFRONT BREEZE (3-1)	Good speed, shorter distance, fourth track in as many starts.
Race Summary	CALL ANOTHER PLAY finished second in her debut to Determined Driver, who came back to finish second in a $75,000 stakes race at Timonium. She switched to the main track and drew away in the stretch despite lugging in when clear. Bet to win and place.

[ConleyPicks]

Free play from Mike Wynn

Free Pick: San Jose St -7 over New Mexico

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Free play from Totals4U

Early Saturday Free Selection: Michigan State Spartans/Rutgers Scarlet Knights under 39 1/2

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Free play from #1 Sports

Early Saturday's Free Play: California Golden Bears + 11

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Free play from Easy Money Sports

Free Early Saturday FootballSelection From Lee
Rutgers -4.5

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Free play from Huddle Up Sports

Saturday Free Play
Duke -3' Saturday CFB