Saturday 10/14/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[ConleyPicks]

Freddy Wills

Michigan State +4.5 1.1% Free Play

The Spartans are off a bye, and despite all the noise surrounding this team and their head coach they just out gained Maryland and Iowa despite losing. I see value in this team, and Rutgers is getting a bit too much credit. I understand they have done some nice things, but at the end of the day they are still a one dimensional offense, and not a very good one at that ranking 80th in yards per play, 83rd in success rate, and for as well as this defense has played they rank 120th in rushing success rate defense with garbage time taken out. This game shoudl be a battle, and one that the Sparty could win if they DON'T lost the turnover battle.

[ConleyPicks]

Stephen Nover

Free Play: Indiana +33.5

You remember Rod Carey, the former head coach at Northern Illinois and Temple? He's the new offensive coordinator at Indiana replacing Walt Bell, who was let go last week during the Hooisers' bye week.

Carey has a unique clause in his contract. He will earn a $50,000 bonus if Indiana is able to average 24 points a game. Carey isn't rushing off to the bank just yet, though, because his first game as offensive coordinator comes against Michigan. The Wolverines are the stingiest defensive team in the nation giving up a meager 6.7 points.

But I'm not taking this boatload of points with Indiana because of its offense, even though Carey probably put in a few new wrinkles during the bye last week, but because the Hooisers' defense can prevent a massacre.

That's hard to write after Indiana lost, 44-17, to Maryland in its last game. It was Indiana's worst game of the season. It's one of many reasons why Michigan is in a prime letdown spot. The Wolverines are returning home having slaughtered Nebraska, 45-7, and Minnesota, 52-10, on the road the past two weeks. They are fat and happy. The Wolverines also are at Michigan State next week. That long-time in-state rivalry matchup is a game that will motivate them, not this one.

Indiana is 2-3 with two of its losses occurring to third-ranked Ohio State, 23-3, and to 14th-rated Louisville, 21-14. It's proof the Hooisers can step up defensively against elite competition.

[ConleyPicks]

Kyle Hunter

*3 Star Free Play Under* The Northern Illinois Huskies host the Ohio Bobcats in DeKalb on Saturday afternoon.

Northern Illinois put up 55 points and ran for 380 yards on Akron last week. I think that was far more about Akron than Northern Illinois. The Huskies only scored 11 points on Southern Illinois. They scored 11 points on Nebraska. They could only score 14 points against Tulsa too.

Ohio looks like the best defense in the MAC. The Bobcats are 8th in the nation in yards per play allowed. They are 12th in success rate allowed.

Ohio is playing very slowly with the 122nd rated tempo in the country. The Bobcats are just 107th in yards per play. Northern Illinois is 38th in yards per play allowed this year.

The weather in DeKalb calls for sustained winds of 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph. That kind of wind is a clear plus for the under. The game should be played in a more conservative way.

Take the under here.

[ConleyPicks]

Jack Jones

Jack's Free Pick Saturday: Iowa/Wisconsin UNDER 35

Playing conditions are expected to be terrible at Wisconsin with an 85% chance of rain and 28 MPH crosswinds Saturday afternoon. This is a very low total for a college football game, but it's not low enough given the conditions, these two elite defenses and Iowa's putrid offense.

Kirk Ferentz has worked wonders getting this Iowa team to 5-1 in spite of an offense that is averaging more punt yards this season than total yards. Iowa is only averaging 250 yards per game and 4.6 yards per play on offense this season. Backup QB Deacon Hill has been atrocious taking over for an injured Cade McNamara.

Hill has completed 21-of-56 (37.5%) passes while averaging just 4.9 yards per attempt with two touchdowns and two interceptions. The Hawkeyes are without their top target in TE Lachey and have other significant injuries at WR and RB. Their offensive line is getting no push and is one of the worst offensive lines of the Ferentz era.

Iowa has gotten to 5-1 thanks to great defense and special teams. The Hawkeyes have one of the best punters in the nation who is an absolute weapon. They have a defense that allows 16.3 points per game, 324 yards per game and 4.3 yards per play. They are holding opponents to 12.6 points per game below their season averages.

Wisconsin has yet another elite defense this season allowing just 18.4 points per game, holding opponents to nearly 13 points per game below their season averages. They only allow 108 rushing yards per game and 3.7 per carry as well. They do have an improved offense this season, but it hasn't been as good as offseason expectations as they are only averaging 40 yards per game more than their opponents allow on average despite an easy schedule of opposing defenses.

Iowa is 12-4 UNDER in its last 16 games with a total of 42 or less. The Hawkeyes are 9-1 UNDER in their last 10 games following a home game. Iowa and Wisconsin haven't combined for more than 35 points in any of their last three meetings, and given the weather conditions they won't combine for more than 35 in this one, either. Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

[ConleyPicks]

Info Plays

1* FREE INFO PLAY on Iowa/Wisconsin Over 34.5 -105

[ConleyPicks]

Rob Vinciletti

Saturday card has the 25-1 PAC 12 Game of the Year headlining along with a TIER 1 in the USC Notre Dame game and 3 more best bets. There is also our Early Season NHL System plays off to a 3-1 start. BIG 10 Comp play below.

The Big 10 Comp play is on Iowa plus the 9 to 10 points at 4 eastern. The Hawkeyes fit a nice system here that plays on road dogs with a total that is less than 35. These teams have covered 12 of 14 times. Iowa is 5-1 with the lone loss at Penn St. They have a solid defense that has allowed 16 or less in 5 of 6 games. Wisky has a solid defense as well and neither team has a big time offense. Iowa has covered 3 of 4 in the series. The Badgers have failed to cover the last 6 after allowing less than 14 points. Look for Iowa to hang around here today and get the Cover. On Saturday a loaded card is up with the 25-1 PAC 12 Game of the Year and the Executive Level Tier 1 in the USC vs Notre Dame game and 3 more top plays including a big total and our Exclusive NHL Early season system plays. Jump on now and put the power of this cutting edge data on your side. For the Comp plays tale go with Iowa Plus the 9 points. Rob V-

[ConleyPicks]

Dave Price

Dave's Saturday Free Play:

1* on UNLV -9

The Key: UNLV is 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS this year and one of the most improved teams in college football under head coach Barry Odom. The market hasn't caught up to how good this team is yet, and still hasn't listing the Rebels as a single-digit favorite over one of the worst teams in college football in Nevada. The Wolf Pack are 0-5 this season with 4 losses by double-digits. That includes a 33-6 home loss to FCS Idaho. Nevada is only averaging 4.4 YPP on offense and allowing 8.4 YPP on defense. That's the worst YPP differential in college football. This is a huge rivalry and sometimes rivalry games are played closer than expected. But that won't be the case in this one. Take UNLV.

[ConleyPicks]

Steve Janus

1* Free Sharp Play on New Mexico+9

[ConleyPicks]

ASA

#146 ASA FREE PLAY ON Pittsburgh +7.5 over Louisville, Saturday at 6:30 PM ET - Great spot here to grab the home dog of more than a TD coming off a bye. While the Panthers are rested, they get Louisville off a huge home win last week vs Notre Dame and now on the road where the Cards have not performed all that well this season. They are 0-3 ATS away from home this season but have only played 1 true road game in an opponent’s stadium. They struggled to beat NC State on the road coming from 10 down in the 2nd half to win by 3. In their other 2 “road” games they faced a bad Indiana team in Indianapolis (@ Colts stadium) and only won 21-14 and then had to come from 15 points down in the 2nd half vs a pretty average Georgia Tech team in a game played at the Falcons stadium. Pitt makes the switch at QB going from Jurkovec who has been poor this season (50% completion rate) and Penn State transfer Veilleux will get the start. The Louisville defense has no film on him and will be flying a bit blind in this game as far as Pitt’s game plan. Veilleux has had 2 weeks to practice with the 1’s due to the bye and we think he brings a spark to a Pitt offense that struggled with Jurkovec at QB. The Panther defense is solid. They rank in the top 25 in both total defense and YPP allowed. The Panthers have played only 2 FBS home games this season losing 27-21 vs Cincinnati and 41-24 vs UNC. The UNC game was much closer as they defense held a potent Tar Heel offense to just 5.4 YPP but North Carolina but lost the turnover battle 3-0. Pitt was +7 in that home game vs UNC and now they are getting more than that vs Louisville in a perfect spot for the Panthers? This one goes to the wire as all Louisville road games have, and we’ll take the points.

[ConleyPicks]

Sean Murphy

Saturday CFB Free play. My selection is on Washington State minus the points over Arizona at 7 pm et on Saturday.

Arizona nearly pulled off a massive upset on the road against USC last week but ultimately fell just short. Now I can't help but feel the Wildcats are in for a letdown as they stay on the road to face a Washington State squad that is sure to be in a foul mood following a tough loss at UCLA. The Cougars couldn't get anything going offensively and despite their defense's best efforts, fell just short against the Bruins. I like the bounce-back spot here, noting that Washington State has taken on all comers at home this season, notching wins over the likes of Wisconsin and Oregon State. Arizona is an even 3-3 on the campaign which is about as good as it could have hoped for through six games. The Wildcats covered double-digit spreads in each of the last two games but both contests resulted in losses. Here, I look for Arizona to run out of gas noting that it is a long-term 6-22 ATS when coming off consecutive ATS wins. Take Washington State.

[ConleyPicks]

Ricky Tran

Ricky's 1* play on ND-135

Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. Here in this game the recent history of these two teams is particularly significant.

- Notre Dame are 11-3 in their last 14 games.

- Southern California are 1-4 in their last 5 games against Notre Dame.

- Southern California are 0-5 in their last 5 games when playing on the road against Notre Dame.

Verdict: The value is on the home favorite.

[ConleyPicks]

Jesse Schule

This is a free play on MIA-FL+3.5 -115

Nobody wants to pick Miami after seeing them blow the game last week at home versus Georgia Tech. I will go against the grain here, and suggest that last week's results don't mean a whole hell of a lot when it comes to how the Canes match up here against the Tar Heels this week. It's not a "Dream Crusher" spot, as there is still plenty of room for a one loss ACC champion. The Canes have lost four in a row versus the Tar Heels, but three of those losses came in games decided by three points. Last year Miami out-gained UNC 538-470 in total yards, and Tyler Van Dyke went off for 496 yards and three TDs on 42-of-57 passing. I think it's a huge mistake to write Miami off after what happened last week.

GL,

Jesse Schule

[ConleyPicks]

Rocky Atkinson

Rocketman Sports FREE CFB play Saturday 10-14-23

Miami Florida @ North Carolina (7:30 PM EST)
Play On: Miami Florida +4

The Miami Florida Hurricanes travel to North Carolina to take on the Tar Heels on Saturday night. Both of these teams should be 5-0 coming into this game but Miami made a huge mistake at the end of their last game and lost in the final seconds so they are 4-1 on the season. Miami Florida is averaging 211 rushing yards per game, 294.8 passing yards per game and a whopping 505.8 total yards per game this year. Their defense has been solid allowing only 58.2 rushing yards per game and 268.4 total yards per game this season. North Carolina allows 152.6 rushing yards per game this year so I think Miami will be able to move the ball here. Miami Florida is scoring 39 points per game overall this year and 41 points per game on the road this season. Miami Florida is allowing only 14.6 points per game overall this year, 7 points per game on the road this season and 12.3 points per game past 3 games overall. I'll recommend a small play on Miami Florida on Saturday night! Thanks and good luck, Rocky

[ConleyPicks]

John Martin

1 Unit FREE PLAY on Missouri/Kentucky UNDER 51.5

With a 62% chance of rain and nearly 20 MPH winds expected in Kentucky on Saturday, this is going to be an ugly, low-scoring game between the Missouri Tigers and Wildcats. This game will be played mostly on the ground and both run defenses have been stellar. Kentucky only gives up 92 rushing yards per game and 3.1 per carry while Missouri gives up 108 rushing yards per game and 3.4 per carry. The UNDER is 4-1 in the last five meetings with 38 or fewer combined points in four of the five. Kentucky is 14-5 UNDER in its last 19 games overall. Give me the UNDER.

[ConleyPicks]

Joseph D'Amico

Saturday’s FREE WINNER: Missouri Tigers+2.5 -105

Game 135.

4:30 PM PST/7:30 PM EST.

I think we can all agree that this college football regular season is full of surprises each week. Yes, Kentucky has had their way with Missouri, winning seven of the last 10 straight up, covering six of those 10. And yes, the Wildcats are ranked 24th, While, the Tigers are just outside of the top-25. This season they share some similarities as well. They both enter this contest coming off their first loss of the season, as they are both 5-1 straight up. Missouri took down some solid opponents in Kansas State and Memphis, covering both of those games. But come off their first loss of the season, a 49-39 home defeat in which they failed to cover at the hands of LSU. To be quite honest, they played that game a lot closer than the score. The only solid opponent Kentucky took down was Florida, a few weeks back at home. Last week they were absolutely humbled and embarrassed on the road at Georgia, getting routed, 51-12. My friends, the Wildcats are not a team that could bounce back from such a devastating defeat so easily. This is a team known for their defense. However, they did allow the less than stellar, Commodores to post 28 points on them. Let's not even get into the Bulldogs numbers (LOL). Although their defense is solid, they still rank 104th against the pass. How the heck are they going to slow down, let alone stop the 12th ranked passing attack of the Tigers. Missouri's quarterback, Brady Cook has been outstanding, tossing for over 1,879 yards, with a 71.8% completion rate, 13 TDs and only two INT's. He also has several solid ball-carriers at his disposal to keep the Kentucky defense honest. Offensively, the Wildcats are pretty good. But you may not realize so is the Tigers defense. They're not going to move the chain so easily against the very aggressive, Missouri stop-unit. My friends, Wildcats quarterback, Devin, Leary is good. But I think we can all agree. He is the definition of Jekyll and Hyde. Against both the Gators and the Bulldogs, his numbers plummeted. The Tigers know this, and will be very aggressive, wreaking havoc on the shaky QB. Take Missouri. Thank you.