Saturday 10/14/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[ConleyPicks]

DREW MARTIN

Event: (215) USC at (216) Notre Dame
Sport/League: CFB
Date/Time: October 14, 2023 7:30 PM EDT

Free College Football Pick Today: Notre Dame -2.5 (-110)

Primetime Saturday night on NBC featuring the USC Trojans vs the Notre Dame Fighting Irish in South Bend, Indiana. Intriguing handicap with the Irish coming off a loss to Louisville and now having dropped two of their last three games. Up against a Trojans team with a sparkling (6-0) record on the season. The oddsmakers pinning the two loss team as the favorite is very telling. Reading the writing on the wall, we are laying it with the under rated Irish.

USC is undefeated on the year, however they are a money burning (2-4) against the spread. Including losing each of the last three games against the number by an astonishing 55 points off the closing point spread. Meaning they have been drastically overpriced in the betting markets. It is not surprising that bettors would be paying up to bet on USC, returning last year's Heisman winner Caleb Williams. Although, the defense has been gashed game in game out, giving up 40+ points in each of their last two times out.

The QB battle alone is worth tuning in with Williams and Hartmann being two of the top college football quarterbacks in the nation. We have it as the Notre Dame defense being the difference. Considering the strength of schedule, the Irish ranking in the top 20 nationally in both scoring defense and yards per play against is a spectacular start. Notre Dame pressure will make Williams' day a tough one, against by far the best defensive unit the Trojans will have played year to date. Notre Dame wins, number good through (-3). Bet Irish.

[ConleyPicks]

TOKYO BRANDON

Event: (301219) Hiroshima D at (301220) Saga
Sport/League: JBL
Date/Time: October 14, 2023 3:05 AM EDT

Free Japan B League Pick Today: Under 153.5 Hiroshima D/Saga

The last two games between these two ended in an average of 144. Through two games and put into the formula it also comes to 144. I project this at 146 in a 81-65 game so make a small play on the under 153.5.

[ConleyPicks]

JEFF MICHAELS

Event: (187) Oregon at (188) Washington
Sport/League: CFB
Date/Time: October 14, 2023 3:30 PM EDT

Free College Football Pick Today: Oregon +3.0 (+100)

1% Oregon Ducks (+3) over Washington —
There is no denying that these are two of the best passing offenses in the country … Penix leads the nation in YPA (11.2), while Nix leads the nation in completion % (80.4%) of all qualifying QBs.
Both of these teams are currently 5-0, but only one of them is ALSO 5-0 ATS on the season and that is Oregon. Plus, the Ducks have won and covered 15 of the L18 meetings between these two teams and have a NOTICEABLY better pass defense. That pass defense will be the difference maker in this game.
Oregon ranks 5th nationally in passing YPG allowed (153.6), while Washington ranks 92nd and is allowing 90 YPG MORE through the air. I expect and explosive game here, but Nix’s 15/1 TD:INT ratio is just too impressive, and this Oregon team is more of a threat on BOTH sides of the ball.

[ConleyPicks]

TOKYO BRANDON

Event: (304671) Lotte Giants at (304672) Hanwha Eagles
Sport/League: KBO
Date/Time: October 14, 2023 4:00 AM EDT
Free KBO League Pick Today: 1H Lotte Giants +0.5 (-135)

Han has an amazing history vs Hanwha. In three starts this season he has a 3-0 record with a 0.59 ERA. Yes, Pena is a good pitcher but if Han can do what he has been doing all season vs a depleted Hanwha lineup that ranks 10 of 10 teams in WoBA, even a 0-0 tie can pay off this bet. Take a +0.5 in the first 5 this is being offered at Draft Kings now at -135.

[ConleyPicks]

THE GOLD SHEET

Event: (159) Marshall at (160) Georgia State
Sport/League: CFB
Date/Time: October 14, 2023 7:00 PM EDT
Free College Football Pick Today: Total Over 53.0 Marshall/ Georgia State (-110)

Marshall has been involved in back-to-back games that have each featured six turnovers: A 41-35 home win over Old Dominion followed by a 48-41 road loss at NC State. This is not your Marshall team of old. Previous editions of the Herd were built on defense, running the ball and operating at a slow pace. Running back Rasheen Ali is still the best player on the team, but this year's version of Marshall is much more explosive on offense. Quarterback Cam Fancher attempted 51 passes against NC State last week in a game where Marshall was leading for large stretches and were never really in "comeback mode." The week prior against Old Dominion, Fancher was 29-of-35 for 278 yards and two touchdowns. Georgia State has scored 30+ in four of its five games this season, and the Panthers are coming off a bye week. Darren Grainger is one of the best quarterbacks in the Sun Belt. This should be an entertaining affair.

[ConleyPicks]

DWAYNE BRYANT

Event: (161) Georgia Southern at (162) James Madison
Sport/League: CFB
Date/Time: October 14, 2023 12:00 PM EDT
Free College Football Pick Today: Total Over 59.5 Georgia Southern/James Madison (-110)

KEY TREND:
Since last season, the OVER is 8-0 when James Madison is coming off an ATS win (covered the spread). These games went OVER by an average of 13.5 points per game. Average total points scored: 68.4

[ConleyPicks]

DWAYNE BRYANT

Event: (163) Toledo at (164) Ball State
Sport/League: CFB
Date/Time: October 14, 2023 2:00 PM EDT
Free College Football Pick Today: Total Under 48.5 Toledo/Ball State (-110)

KEY TREND:
Since 2021, the UNDER is 9-0 when Ball State is coming off a conference loss. These games stayed UNDER by an average of 12.1 points per game. Average total points scored: 41.5

[ConleyPicks]

ROB VENO

Event: (213) San Diego State at (214) Hawaii
Sport/League: CFB
Date/Time: October 14, 2023 11:00 PM EDT
Free College Football Pick Today: Total Over 52.5 San Diego State/Hawaii (-110)

(213) San Diego State at (214) Hawaii (Game Analysis Below)
Play Rating: 3%
Play Type: Full Game Total
Play: Total Over 52.5 (-110)
Date/Time: Oct 14, 2023 11:00 PM EDT / Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line

San Diego State weakeness vs. the run not likely to be exposed here
The 4 weeks prior to their Bye last week the Aztecs gave up 287 / 241 / 191 / 254 rushing yards to run dominant offenses (Air Force / Boise State / Oregon State / UCLA)
That’s 973 total yards rushing in 4 games (243.3 per game) & 5.9 per carry
Those numbers are not skewed by sack yardage (SDS only 3 sacks for -26 yards in those games)
But Hawaii doesn’t run (only 60.2 rypg) and the play calling is lopsided (38.4% run / 62.6% pass) so can’t expect them to play to their weakness and be successful
However, they could still have success vs the SDSU pass defense which has not applied a lot of pressure and did get hit for 931 py & 18.6 per completion vs the 4 teams I mentioned above
That said, Hawaii has not stopped anything defensively this year (allowed 449 including 337 on the ground to UNLV last week), 560 to Oregon and 406 to Stanford
QB Jalen Mayden has sparked the offense a bit when faced with lesser foes and SDSU has been a bit more balanced and quicker tempo in spots
This is a huge step down in class for the Aztecs offense so expect them to be balanced & productive because they’ll be able to get the running game going

[ConleyPicks]

DWAYNE BRYANT

Event: (151) Iowa State at (152) Cincinnati
Sport/League: CFB
Date/Time: October 14, 2023 12:00 PM EDT
Free College Football Pick Today: Total Under 43.0 Iowa State/Cincinnati (-110)

Just can't pull the trigger now at 43 when I could've had 50 a few days ago.
KEY TREND:
The UNDER is 9-0 when Iowa State is a road underdog of 7 or fewer points under head coach Matt Campbell. These games stayed UNDER by an average of 18.6 points per game. Average total points scored: 35.7

[ConleyPicks]

THE PREZ

Event: (191) Arizona at (192) Washington State
Sport/League: CFB
Date/Time: October 14, 2023 7:00 PM EDT
Free College Football Pick Today: Arizona +7.5 (-110)

Arizona-Washington State
The final score for Washington State last week against UCLA may have ended up as a 25-17 loss, but the fact of the matter is they should have been beaten much worse. UCLA outgained them 471-216 and had it not been for a INT return for a touchdown right before the half, the Cougars would have been blown out of the water. Coming off their first loss of 2023, Wazzu returns home to face a dangerous Arizona squad that just played Washington and USC very tough. The Wildcats should have probably beaten USC last week. It was their second overtime loss of the season so don’t be fooled by a 3-3 overall record. They’ve yet to lose a game by more than 7 so there’s no reason Washington State (who isn’t as good as either Washington or USC) should be laying this many points here. Arizona outgained USC 506-365 despite playing with a backup QB. Grab the points with Arizona.

[ConleyPicks]

STEVE MERRIL

Event: (153) Miami Florida at (154) North Carolina
Sport/League: CFB
Date/Time: October 14, 2023 7:30 PM EDT
Free College Football Pick Today: North Carolina -3.0 (-110)

-Miami comes in off an inexplicable loss when they could have run out the clock; hangover
-North Carolina is a perfect 5-0 on the season; their biggest home game in awhile; big effort
-Tar Heels defense is allowing just 19 points per game on 5.3 yards per play this season
Play NORTH CAROLINA (-3).

[ConleyPicks]

DAVE COKIN

Event: (205) Temple at (206) North Texas
Sport/League: CFB
Date/Time: October 14, 2023 12:00 PM EDT
Free College Football Pick Today: Temple +6.0 (-110)

[ConleyPicks]

BRYAN LEONARD

Event: (199) Auburn at (200) LSU
Sport/League: CFB
Date/Time: October 14, 2023 7:00 PM EDT
Free College Football Pick Today: Total Over 60.0 Auburn/LSU (-110)

Auburn at LSU
Auburn had last week off after taking #1 Georgia to the buzzer in a 27-20 loss. That’s two losses in a row after starting the season 3-0. Coach Hugh Freeze is at his best in the underdog role, posting a 28-13 ATS mark. The underdog in this series has also cashed seven straight, while Auburn has won four straight ATS.
Auburn struggled against the run last year, allowing 4.6 ypc. We are seeing more of the same this season. They have done a nice job in pass defense, but Auburn hasn’t had much offensive success through the air. The running game has been productive, but until they complement that through the air this offense will be suspect. They were able to score 59 and 45 against weak competition. But against Power Five teams they managed just 14, 10 and 20 points.
LSU has a solid home field advantage, especially in night games. They were 6-1 ATS in Brian Kelly’s inaugural season. LSU enters play at 4-2 on the season with losses to #4 Florida State and #13 Mississippi.
Unlike their opponent LSU has been terrific through the air offensively. Posting a Quarterback Rating of 185.80, with a 19 to 2 TD to INT ratio. This is a very dynamic offense which should have no trouble moving the football.
Unfortunately they are allowing over 5 yards per carry on the ground, and Auburn can exploit that.
Let’s look for a high scoring affair as we just don’t trust either stop unit.
PLAY OVER

[ConleyPicks]

DON BUSTER

Event: (135) Missouri at (136) Kentucky
Sport/League: CFB
Date/Time: October 14, 2023 7:30 PM EDT
Free College Football Pick Today: Kentucky -2.5 (-110)

Two teams that took really bad losses in their last game play in Lexington. Georgia took Kentucky to the woodshed. and Missouri coughed up a big lead and lost to LSU. Which one will bounce back? I break down this game on my twitter homepage at don_buster. So lets get the job done with the Kentucky Wildcats as your free play for CFB.

[ConleyPicks]

ADAM TRIGGER

Event: (205) Temple at (206) North Texas
Sport/League: CFB
Date/Time: October 14, 2023 12:00 PM EDT
Free College Football Pick Today: Temple +6.5 (-110)

FanDuel and DK back to 6.5. I think other spots will follow suit. I will lock in here.