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Sunday 10/15/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc
This is a play on the INDIANAPOLIS COLTS+4 for our Sunday Free Play. Jacksonville is back home following a two-week stay in London where it won both games against the Falcons and Bills. Against Atlanta, the Jaguars won the yardage battle by only 13 total yards but benefitted from a 3-0 turnover margin that included a 61-yard interception returned for a touchdown. Last week, they caught the Bills in a perfect spot as they were the ones travelling prior to the game and Buffalo was coming off a big home win over Miami that had a lot of build up to it. Jacksonville is now 3-2 but it remains middle of the pack in EPA on both sides and comes in with a net EPA rank of No. 18. The Colts bounced back from their overtime loss against the Rams to defeat Tennessee last week as it used two fourth quarter field goals to seal the win. Quarterback Anthony Richardson had to leave the game once again and he has been put on the IR so he will miss at least four weeks, putting a halt to his promising start to his rookie season. Backup Gardner Minshew has played well coming off the bench twice and making one start as he has a 95.1 quarterback rating while completing 68.7 percent of his passes with a pair of touchdowns and no interceptions. Running back Jonathan Taylor returned last week and was eased back in so he and Zack Moss form a solid one-two punch in the backfield. The Colts are now 3-2 as well and possess a net EPA ranking of No. 16 and they are catching an overpriced line in what has the makings of a field goal game either way. Play (263) Indianapolis Colts
At Professionalsportspicks we see a future where those handicapping sports without advanced analytics and data-driven strategies will be left behind. Our data-driven picks use data integration, search and discovery, and knowledge management along with collaboration with our in-house handicappers. By isolating relevant trends, removing human bias, and targeting only lines with a positive expected value above a certain threshold, our data-driven picks promise to outperform any and all human competitors.
Our models suggest that the value is on the favorite. New Orleans are 6-3 in their last 9 games. Houston are 1-8 in their last 9 games at home.
The Chicago Bears are 5-0 to the over on the season, but it sure isn't because of their own ability to put points on the board. Sure, the Bears are coming off a 40-20 win at Washington, but their numbers through the first four weeks of the season were a lot worse. Here they'll take on a Vikings team that will have to do without their top playmaker Justin Jefferson, and I expect this game to go under the total.
Both the Chicago Bears and Minnesota Vikings sit at 1-4 this season. But I like the direction and the mindset of the Bears right now more than that of the Vikings. The Bears didn't have many expectations this season, and they have responded well after and 0-3 start while getting embarrassed by the Kansas City Chiefs three weeks ago.
The Bears came back and took a 28-7 lead on the Denver Broncos the next week. Of course, they found a way to blow that lead in a game they dominated the box score. They outgained Denver 471 to 311, or by 160 total yards. Justin Fields had the key fumble that was returned for a TD in what was an otherwise flawless game for him.
The Bears could have folded after that loss on a short week and traveling to Washington. Instead, they put forth their best effort of the season in a 40-20 win as 6-point underdogs. The Bears had another huge offensive game racking up 451 total yards while outgaining Washington by 63 yards in the win. Fields now has 8 touchdown passes against only one interception the past two games.
The Bears have had great balance in their last two contests rushing for 171 yards and throwing for 300 against the Broncos while rushing for 178 and throwing for 273 against the Commanders. Now they face another poor defense here in the Minnesota Vikings, who allowed 259 rushing yards to the Eagles in the lone game they played against a potent rushing attack. The Bears have rushed for at least 116 yards in four of their five games this season, and now Fields is forming chemistry with his receivers, especially DJ Moore.
No question this Chicago defense has been poor up to this point. But injuries in the secondary have been a big reason why, and now reinforcements are on the way as they are expected to have a healthy Eddie Jackson, Jaylon Johnson and Terell Smith in the defensive backfield. While the Bears are getting healthier on defense, the Vikings are getting the injury bug at a bad time on offense.
WR Justin Jefferson went down with a hamstring injury against the Chiefs last week and has been put on injured reserve. You could argue Jefferson is worth more points to the spread than any other non-QB in the league. WR Jordan Addison is battling an ankle injury and listed as questionable. Not having Jefferson will severely limit Minnesota's passing attack, which is their bread and butter.
Also affecting Minnesota's passing attack is the weather forecast, which is calling for a 50% chance of rain and 17 MPH crosswinds at Soldier Field Sunday. The Vikings are going to be forced to try and move the football on the ground, and they have been held to 70 or fewer rushing yards in three of their five games this season. They only average 81 rushing yards per game. If Cousins and the offense get pass-happy, it's going to lead to turnovers in Chicago's favor. I'll gladly side with the better rushing team and the dual-threat QB in Fields given these weather conditions.
Minnesota went 13-4 last season while going a ridiculous 11-0 in one-score games. They were extremely lucky last year. The regression has hit hard in 2023 as they are 1-4 with all five games being decided by a single score. They realize their season may be over already, and it's going to be tough for them to get back up off the mat this week, especially after losing by 7 at home to the defending Super Bowl champion Chiefs last week. The Bears have extra time to prep for this game after playing last Thursday as well. Bet the Bears Sunday.
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