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4 Unit Play. #562. Take the Los Angeles Clippers +11 over the Cleveland Cavaliers (Tuesday @ 10:30pm est). Glad we were able to cash with Portland +2 Outright over the Lakers in an easy cash. Let's focus and cash today's winner with the Clippers +11 today. There is a specific reason why I waited to release this play as the line opened up at +9 and has moved to +11 which is beautiful. Who is to say that it doesn't move up to +11.5, so just wait around until game time. For starters, I think the public gets buried today as 73% are on the Cavs. But why? "Oh, the Cavs are so great, they are awesome, unbeileveable, fabulous, blah, blah, blah". This is the same nonsense that got the Lakers backers buried last night as they took it up the backside on the road at Portland. Now, I'm not saying the Cavs lose SU here. But, I am saying we have a great shot at a cover here. Remember, this is the same Clippers team that defeated the Celtics at home. This is the same Clippers team that beat the Warriors at home and was leading by 13 against the Pacers at home in their last game to lose by a point. On top of that, this is the same Clippers team that was tied on the road at Cleveland at the half 54-54. That's right, tied 54-54 as 15 Point Underdogs. Now, having said that, Cleveland came back in the second half and beat this team 17 as they hit the cover late. Now, some key differences. Zach Randolph did not play that game for the Clippers and Baron Davis only played 23 Minutes - plus that game was in the Cleveland where the Cavs get every call. This game is in L.A, Randolph is back, Baron specifically rested for this game which is why he sat out the Pacer game and Eric Gordon will once again play in this contest. Oh, and I almost forgot, Al Thornton will be playing this game as well! How big is Thornton? How about the fact he played 43 minutes in the last contest agains the Pacers and dropped 22 points and grabbed 9 boards. In short, we have Thornton back, Zach back, we are in L.A., the Clippers know they can play with this team as they were tied at the half last time and a rested Baron Davis - let's Roll baby! The home team is 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings beteween these two teams of late.
4 Unit Play. #592. Take the North Dakota State Bisons -4 over Oakland (Tuesday @ 8pm est). Before I forget, do note, that I will be making more than 1 selection per day during the Madness as I step out more during this time as we lead up to the Dance and during the Dance. This is when you just let it ride given what you know and what you've followed. When you make Selections for the Madness, in the early goings, favorites rule. This is what i have traked over the past few years and for a dog play like myself usually, it's a bit irritating. Granted, although we had Portland +2 in the NBA which was an Outright winner essentially early on, I was still upset at Charleston given that every other favorite covered that night it seemd with VCU, Western Kentuck, Gonzaga and Siena - although South Alabama did cover. So, favorites won yesterday to a tune of 4-2. This is usually the case in conference tournaments. Such is the case today as we take North Dakota State -4 on the relative cheap today. The Bisons are a strong team. This team is 25-6 and they do play on the court of South Dakota State today which is essentially a semi-home game as Oakland will not have as much of a fan base there. This team has relative comfort in playing in South Dakota as they defeated even South Dakota State by 10 in overtime this year. Why can they not beat Oakland in a semi-home game this year? In many ways, this game reminds me of the VCU vs. George Mason game yesterday. The public does like VCU, that was basically a semi-home game for them, they were laying similar small chalk, were the better team during the regular season and was the much better free throw shooting team. North Dakota State shoot 74.1% from the charity stripe, are a well disciplined team that lost to Oakland by 1 on the road this year to then beat them by 10 at home this year. Oakland is a good looking team and they have played a tough non-conference schedule. In fact, Oakland has looked very strong in the early goings of the Summitt Tournament defeating IUPUI Fort Wayne and South Dakota State. Having said that, I will lay it on the line with North Dakota State as our play given their strength from the line, the fact that it is a semi-home game and the Bison are 6-1 ATS over their last 7 games overall. Let's take the more disciplined team as we look to step out later this week with more college hoops selections per day.
NSA's Selections
CBB Georgetown vs St John's 2:20 PM EST 20* St John's +6.5
CBB Cleveland St vs Butler 9:00 PM EST 20* Cleveland St +6
CBB Rutgers vs Notre Dame 7:00 PM EST 10* Notre Dame -10.5
CBB Depaul vs Cincinnati 12:00 PM EST 10* Cincinnati -8
CBB No Illinois vs Kent St 2:20 PM EST 10* Kent St -11.5
NBA New York @ Milwaukee 7:05 PM EST 10* New York +3.5
Pick title: 3* Cleveland -11
Pick Date: 03/10/2009
Pick description:
Who says you can't lay big points and be successful. In today's NBA research, "The Animal" made the surprising discovery Cleveland is 9-0 ATS since January 30th when favored by 7 1/2 points or more. That streak started with a 112-95 blowout of the Clippers at home giving 15 points. 11 actually seems cheap when you comprehend the Clippers on this current homestand losing to Memphis and San Antonio by margins of 23 and 28 points. Also note the Cavs have won five straight over the Clippers (scoreboard and wallet) with all but one by a dozen or more. The Cavs are a 70 percent proposition when giving 10 or more points this year at 14-6 ATS and LEADING THE LEAGUE in that category. LeBron in Los Angeles sounds like a recipte of disaster for the home team. Yikes! The Clippers have allowed 106 or more in their last three home games versus the Spurs without Ginobili, Memphis with Rudy Gay a season-high 35, and Indiana without Granger or Dunleavy. Also the Clips are minus Marcus Camby tonight and I'm not sure if I can recover from the shock of that. LA coming off a pathetic 16-point 4th quarter in a one-point home loss to Indiana on Saturday. Not trying to be a wise ass, but why the hell are we not playing against the Clippers every night? They are 7-30 ATS since December 20th. Cleveland is 46-21 ATS in their last 67. We couldn't ask for better long term numbers. Write it down: Take Milwaukee 'OVER' and anti-Clippers the next month and see where we stand starting tonight.
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