Wednesday 10/18/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by TrackMaster Greg at Flamboro Downs

P#	PP	HORSE NAME	M/L	DRIVER - WIN%	POINTS
RACE 9
5	5	NIGHT CLUB HANOVER	3/1	Macdonald, Brett A - 17	516.56
7	7	ROCK AND TWIST	5/2	Sorrie, Austin - 15	498.35
2	2	BETTER BE GOUDA	4/1	Henry, Travis J - 18	486.17
3	3	D M JOHNWICK	6/1	Haughan, Anthony P - 10	476.26
6	6	DOC HOUSTON	2/1	Moore, Tyler - 9	473.63
1	1	DELIGHTFUL LEADER	8/1	Thiessen, Daryl - 9	470.21
4	4	YOU CAN HAVE ITALL	10/1	Hensley, Ed F - 27	374.92

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by TrackMaster Greg at Harrington Raceway

P#	PP	HORSE NAME	M/L	DRIVER - WIN%	POINTS
RACE 13
5	5	SLIM JIMMY	7/5	Davis, Allan - 16	524.70
2	2	ROCK OF CASHEL	9/2	Callahan, Corey - 14	480.96
8	8	GREAT UNKNOWN	10/1	Poliseno, Cody - 10	476.65
3	3	MIRACLE DE VIE	7/2	Dalious, Barton - 8	466.88
4	4	POETS N PIRATES	20/1	Davis, Tyler - 4	460.83
1	1	COME HOME FOR LIFE	9/2	Kirby, Victor - 11	452.75
6	6	TRUST FUND BABY	20/1	Stafford, Art Jr - 13	441.18
7	7	TRIXAR	20/1	Porter, Trae - 7	435.30

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Monticello Raceway

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 7 - Post: 2:10 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 76 - Purse:$5400 - NW $500 PS L5 OR PS IN 2023 $6700 PC LS AE:$8000 CLM W/A J DEVAUX 5 OVER 3,4

CONSORTIUM CHOICES
	# 3 THEREISAPACEFORUS 3/1
# 2 TIDAL SHARK 5/2
# 4 TREASURE MACH 12/1

After thorough analysis by the handicapping group, THEREISAPACEFORUS comes out as the top pick. Many selectors will recognize the outstanding speed rating in the last race. Stacks up against any horse in this race. Great hitting the board percent for Merton and this entrant. A nice probability to get the score. TIDAL SHARK - Chindano knows this nice horse well. Top notch in the money results when starting with one another. This contender looks dangerous. Check out the 79 average TrackMaster Speed Rating. TREASURE MACH - Can't pass over this fine animal, especially in exotics. Pace rankings put him in the mix in this contest.

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Pocono Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 12 - Post: 4:18 - 1 mile. TROT - Class Rating: 70 - Purse:$42970 - JOHN SIMPSON, SR. MEMORIAL 2 YEAR OLD FILLIES THE DAVIDIA HANOVER 3RD DIVISION OF 3 POCONO DOWNS

CONSORTIUM CHOICES
	# 2 CAVIART IRISH LUCK 12/1
# 3 DUCHAMP S 3/1
# 4 IHAVEADREAM DE VIE 5/2

All signs point to CAVIART IRISH LUCK for the selection and is a really strong value bet given the line. She has really good class ratings, averaging 68. Worth considering for a bet today. Feel the need for speed, this interesting entrant has been turning in some great speed ratings averaging around 72. The wagering panel keenly points out that when Daley trains this fine animal, the odds of finishing in the top three go way up. DUCHAMP S - Earned a 69 TrackMaster Speed Rating last out. A duplicate performance here should get the ultimate prize in this contest. Svanstedt has been hot as a pistol this last month, winning at a great 20 percent. IHAVEADREAM DE VIE - Worth considering for this one if only for the nice TrackMaster Speed Rating recorded in the most recent competition. Recent figures for the driver - 25 percent win - make this filly a clear choice in the pack.

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by TrackMaster Greg at Dayton Raceway

P#	PP	HORSE NAME	M/L	DRIVER - WIN%	POINTS
RACE 12
9	9	KEENE IDYLLIC	7/2	Page, Chris - 17	500.35
8	8	NEVADA VACATION	3/1	Miller, Brett - 13	495.57
2	2	TWO OCLOCK JOHNNY	9/2	Smith, Tyler - 14	491.36
5	5	MANAMONGSTBOYS	8/1	Widger, Sam - 17	481.55
4	4	ITZ MONTANA JET N	12/1	Beattie, Jason - 6	474.52
7	7	LAZY JANE	5/1	Smith, Jeremy - 22	469.77
6	6	SHER'S SPEEDYSHARK	12/1	Mccown, Cameron - 10	453.23
3	3	SOME HIGH DREAMER	6/1	Hanners, Austin - 7	445.32
1	1	SPORTS SINNER	12/1	Smith, Trevor - 7	435.81

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by TrackMaster Greg at Hoosier Park

P#	PP	HORSE NAME	M/L	DRIVER - WIN%	POINTS
RACE 10
1	1	REAL DEAL LINDY	7/5	Bender, Atlee - 10	500.01
5	5	SWEET DEE	15/1	Wilfong, Kyle - 11	436.57
3	3	FORGET ME NOT	6/1	Krueger, Matt - 8	428.33
7	7	MISS HULA DANCER	3/1	Tetrick, Trace - 21	419.67
2	2	POLK DOTLADY	5/1	Wrenn, Peter - 17	416.45
4	4	COCO CHIA	12/1	Finn, Jared - 7	388.87
6	6	VEL LITTLE BLISTER	8/1	Peterson, Mike - 7	354.35

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Flamboro Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 6 - Post: 8:30 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 58 - Purse:$6000 - HORSES & GELDINGS - N/W OF A RACE OR $5000. LIFETIME

CONSORTIUM CHOICES
	# 9 RESTIVE SPIRIT 2/1
# 4 CALL ME MO 8/1
# 7 MUCKSAIL HANOVER 3/1

The pick in this contest is RESTIVE SPIRIT. Has to be given a look based on the nice TrackMaster Speed Rating achieved in the most recent race. The driver/horse combination percentages point out that this combo are solid in the money finishers when working with one another. Cullen knows this fine animal well. Outstanding in the money record when starting together. CALL ME MO - When starting from the 4 slot, a better than expected win percentage has resulted. With a terrific driver, who has won at a very good 20 percent rate the past month, this has to be one of the top picks. MUCKSAIL HANOVER - Recorded a 59 speed rating last time out. A duplicate outing here should get the win in this one.

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at The Meadows

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 5 - Post: 2:09 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 87 - Purse:$12100 - CD ALL AGES NW $8500 L4 STS. AE: NW 7 EXT PM`S LIFE AE: HORSES WITH A TM RATING OF 84 OR LESS AS OF 10/13/2023 MORNING LINE: 4-6-2-1 D.PALONE - #1 OR 6 A.MERRIMAN - #4 OR 5

CONSORTIUM CHOICES
	# 7 ODDS ON OSIRIS 7/1
# 2 SEEYOU AT THEBEACH 9/2
# 6 DRAGON CITY 7/2

Hard not to think about ODDS ON OSIRIS as the top choice in this event especially at a such a nice price. Deserves a shot given the better than average win rate he sports. SEEYOU AT THEBEACH - This fine animal looks tough considering the high class markings. We wouldn't recommend tossing out of any exotics. No way we can pass on this gelding given one of the finest driver-trainer statistics around. DRAGON CITY - His 89 avg has this gelding among the most competitive TrackMaster SRs in this contest. This gelding has been competing versus some of the most competitive horses in this field of horses these days.

[ConleyPicks]

Handicappers' Consensus for Wednesday, October 18

KEENELAND

	Scott Hazelton	Tom Leach	Jeremy Plonk	Caton Bredar	Kim Nelson
1	9 Stage Bell 7 Jubilant Joanie 6 Velocheetah	10 Imperator Furiosa 6 Velocheetah 2 Lady Free Will	2 Lady Free Will 9 Stage Bell 7 Jubilant Joanie	9 Stage Bell 7 Jubilant Joanie 6 Velocheetah	7 Jubilant Joanie 10 Imperator Furiosa 6 Velocheetah
2	8 Tee Burns 6 Slam Dunk Sermon 7 Blue Kentucky	8 Tee Burns 5 The Distractor 3 Solidify	2 Lykan 7 Blue Kentucky 6 Slam Dunk Sermon	8 Tee Burns 5 The Distractor 7 Blue Kentucky	8 Tee Burns 9 Pure Panic 7 Blue Kentucky
3	8 I Feel the Need 7 Windy Bay 1 East Shore	8 I Feel the Need 3 Steel Racer 7 Windy Bay	1 East Shore 7 Windy Bay 8 I Feel the Need	1 East Shore 7 Windy Bay 9 Efficacious	8 I Feel the Need 1 East Shore 7 Windy Bay
4	6 Marshside Mama 5 Thestral 7 Such Sounds	5 Thestral 3 Spicy Italian 7 Such Sounds	7 Such Sounds 5 Thestral 1 Wits and Wagers	5 Thestral 7 Such Sounds 2 Mustang Lady	3 Spicy Italian 4 Sandra D 5 Thestral
5	9 It'smyluckytime 6 Justifreak 11 Air of Defiance	12 Anthem King 6 Justifreak 11 Air of Defiance	9 It'smyluckytime 11 Air of Defiance 7 So Smooth	11 Air of Defiance 6 Justifreak 4 Popweiser	6 Justifreak 9 It'smyluckytime 11 Air of Defiance
6	4 Punchbowl 5 Skratch Kat 1 Insignia	4 Punchbowl 5 Skratch Kat 1 Insignia	1 Insignia 4 Punchbowl 5 Skratch Kat	4 Punchbowl 2 Shezz Koldazice 1 Insignia	4 Punchbowl 5 Skratch Kat 1 Insignia
7	4 Our Dotsie 10 Beach Walkn 1 Empirical View	3 Tituba 5 Hola Gata 13 Be My Sunshine	4 Our Dotsie 5 Hola Gata 12 Jenny Lind	7 Holy Foley 4 Our Dotsie 5 Hola Gata	4 Our Dotsie 5 Hola Gata 10 Beach Walkn
8	6 Catalina Crush 10 Army Kid 2 Runnin Munnin	6 Catalina Crush 2 Runnin Munnin 11 Karlwithanarl	6 Catalina Crush 2 Runnin Munnin 8 Sterling Honor	6 Catalina Crush 7 Knicks Storm 9 We Miss Arlington	7 Knicks Storm 6 Catalina Crush 2 Runnin Munnin

[ConleyPicks]

Scott Hazelton

Happy Wednesday at Keeneland. A very good looking 8 race card lies ahead at Keeneland.

1st Race
9-7-6

#9 Stage Bell takes a big drop-down in class and cuts back and distance. Both things should equal and then improve effort here today. #7 Jubilant Joanie was claimed last time out by Trainer, Tom Amoss, who wins at a high percentage in races, first off the claim. #6 Velocheetah also, takes a big drop-down in class here today. Anyone of these horses is good enough in the opener today at Keeneland.


2nd Race
8-6-7

#8 Tee Burns sprung upset last time out at Churchill Downs on closing weekend and was claim that day by trainer Chris Hartman, who is very good at winning first off the claim. this horse holds very good form and is a very straightforward sort. He can track off the pace and make a run or set the pace. Whatever is needed. I like him a lot today in the early part of the card. #6 Slam Dunk Sermon looks very similar to the horse just mentioned as far as form. He's 13 races this year and fits at the level. There's nothing to knock at all about this runner. #7 Blue Kentucky might be just a cut below the other two, but he picks up checks and tries hard and can fill out a trifecta or superfecta at a solid price.


3rd Race
8-7-1

#8 I Feel the Need takes a big drop in class and gets back to dirt or she's showing a little bit more ability. Both things are enough for me to like this horse today in an amongst this kind of competition. #7 Windy Bay should hold a good Earlie position early in this race and with the first wire finish, that will go along way combined with the drop in class that this horse also takes today #1 East Shore also class drops and is gonna have to fight for some early position from post one but should be in the mix late.



4th Race
6-5-7

#6 Marshside Mama find the right group to come in from Iowa to pick off an upset Nguyen. Should be able to show some good speed and hopefully keep on going. #5 Thestral has really turned the corner in the last two races and I'm hoping that she's able to continue that trend with Jockey Tyler Gaffalione sticking with this filly for a second consecutive race. #7 Such Sounds is written by Louie Saez, who had a wonderful week here at Keeneland, so I'm looking to ride that wave combined with Trainer, Phillip Bauer, who had a very good meet with limited starters this fall at Keeneland.


5th Race
9-6-11

#9 It’smyluckytime is a first time starter by Not This Time who is progeny win 20% of the time in their debut race. I don't see any standouts in this group that have already raced, so I'm willing to take a shot with the first time starter. #6 Justifreak has had some very fast workouts for his debut, and has to be respected with John Velazquez in the saddle. He's also bred to win early, he's by Justify, 18% of the time first time out and this horses mare has produced to two-year-old winners from six to race. #11 Air of Defiance debut at Saratoga in the mud, and was defeated by an ultra impressive winner, Fierceness. on the flipside fierceness did not run well in his next start but I guess you can't hold that against this who showed some ability on debut. At least he has one race under his belt but I have a feeling he will be way over bet in here.


6th Race
4-5-1

#4 Punchbowl showed some serious ability at the beginning of the year and came within feet of winning the G1 Central Bank Ashland Stakes here at Keeneland in her most recent start. But that's the last time we saw her over six months ago in that race. Trainer Brad Cox never brings in my opinion a horse into a race off of the layoff short on fitness so it's just a matter of how she'll handle facing older company for the first time in this comeback race. #5 Skratch Kat is horse trained by Phillip Bauer today who looks alive and changes things up by adding blinkers. She's run some races not really improving position but holding good position in her recent races so hopefully those blinkers will help her out today. #1 Insignia is another Brad Cox trainee who has recent racing under her belt and has yet to run a bad race. Definitely a top three contender at the bare minimum.


7th Race
4-10-1

#4 Our Dotsie gets Luis Saez in the saddle who I think is set up for another big day at Keeneland based on the live mounts he has and the week he had last week which was very successful. Will give her a pass on her last race at Kentucky Downs, and expect her to bounce back today. Beach Walkn is another one we can give a pass for her most recent race, Kentucky Downs, and expect her to return to the prior form that we saw her put fourth, which was a win back in July at Ellis Park, a more similar type of race and racecourse that run over today at Keeneland. #1 Empirical View his trained by Jimmy DiVito, who says "she has talent, but her issue is her composure, and if she can relax, she run good.” keep an eye on how this one is acting in the lead up to the race because she could be primed for an upset performance.


8th Race
6-10-2

#6 Catalina Crush has run twice well against New York bred company. The two race experience should really help versus a group of largely inexperienced and debut runners. #10 Army Kid is a colt by Army Mule who is progeny win 19% of the time in their debut race. Should be a good price and worth a shot in your exotic wagers at the bare minimum especially the Toyota super high five wager. #2 Runnin Munnin ran even on debut and got tired. Hopefully can take a step forward today.

[ConleyPicks]

Jeremy Plonk

Jeremy Plonk’s Keeneland Keys for Wednesday, October 18, 2023

What to Watch for Today: A pick 6 carryover of $52,497 welcomes Week 3 of the Fall Meet. The $1 pick 6 wager begins in Race 3 on an 8-race card. Note that the 8-race programs include key swing races in the 4th and 5th that are vital in the early and late pick fours and fives.

The Keeneland Turf Pick Three will not be offered with just Race 7 slated for grass Wednesday. The Turf Pick Three returns Thursday.

Handicapping Head-start: Be sure to join me at 8:30 pm ET on the night before each racing day’s card for the Keeneland Look-Ahead video podcast. It streams live on the Keeneland YouTube page as well on Twitter @Keenelandracing, @BetKeeneland and @Horseplayernow.

Weather: Mostly sunny skies with autumn temps in the upper 60s are in the forecast.

My Selections: You can get my top 3 picks in each race on the track simulcast feed before each race as well on the Keeneland.com handicappers’ consensus page (https://www.keeneland.com/racing/wag...pers-consensus).

Keeneland Handicapping 101: Most information is gleaned from the free Keeneland Handicapping database (http://apps.keeneland.com/awstats/Default.asp) that you can manipulate and search for yourself as well!

1st Race
Maiden claimers sprint 7 furlongs to open the early pick five. Favorites are 1-9 in MCL races so far this Fall Meet, but 8 winners have been 7-1 or less and very good betting races. Churchill preppers have 4 of the wins and first-timers have been shut out. Ellis Park has a pair of victories. Speed has not held as well as past meets in these MCL sprints with the average winner more than 3 lengths back after the opening half-mile – more than 2 lengths farther back than MCL sprint par over the years. Closers via Churchill may be the play, giving edges to Lady Free Will (by sharp Kee dirt sire Jimmy Creed), Stage Bell (by excellent local sire Union Rags) and Imperator Furiosa (by another strong Kee dirt sire in Super Saver).


2nd Race
The early pick four begins with a 6-furlong starter allowance sprint. We’ve had 51 starter allowances on dirt in the Fall Meets and the average winner has been 5-1 odds with favorites way underperforming at 14-51. But note 44 of 51 winners were 8-1 or less, including all 4 this meet between 3-1 and 5-1. These have been excellent betting chances for fair prices. Churchill preppers own 20 of the wins, far outgunning Horseshoe Indianapolis next with 5. The 4 races this Fall Meet have been spread out, however. Lykan was a maiden special weight winner here in Fall 2021 as a 2YO over this 6F trip. Blue Kentucky is also a local winner (with 2 runner-ups in 3 starts at Kee on dirt), winning a 7F claiming sprint here in Fall 2022. Both come off recent wins and are in peak form.


3rd Race
The $52,497 carryover pick six starts with a 1-1/16 miles non-winners of 2 lifetime (N2L) claimer. Favorites are just over 30% in N2L claimers in Fall Meets over the years. Churchill and Ellis preppers have each won 2 of the first 5 at the current meet. Horses coming out of one-turn miles have won 9 of the 34 Fall Meet N2L claiming routes (including Ellis as one-turn with its unique configuration). That’s good news for East Shore via Ellis and Windy Bay via Kentucky Downs on turf. Among these N2Ls, the best maiden win on paper is East Shore’s open maiden special weight at Churchill.


4th Race
Non-winners of 2 lifetime (N2L) claimers route 1-1/16 miles on dirt to kickstart the late pick five. Favorites are just over 30% in N2L claimers in Fall Meets over the years. Churchill and Ellis preppers have each won 2 of the first 5 at the current meet. Horses coming out of one-turn miles have won 9 of the 34 Fall Meet N2L claiming routes (including Ellis as one-turn with its unique configuration). That’s good news for Wits and Wagers and CC Cruise Control. Among these N2Ls, the best maiden win on paper is Such Sounds open maiden special weight on turf here at Keeneland in the ’23 Spring Meet. She’s by Cairo Prince, an outstanding Kee dirt sire, while Wits and Wagers is by strong Kee dirt sire Union Rags.


5th Race
Two-year-old maiden special weight sprinters match up over 7 furlongs in the opening leg of the late pick four. More than two-thirds of MSW 2YO dirt Fall races are won by horses via Churchill Downs or first-time starters. They've won 7 of 9 so far this meet, including 5 rookies. The CD alumni here don’t inspire, so first-time starter It’smyluckytime is among several rookies of note here. He’s by strong Kee dirt sire Not This Time and trainer Todd Pletcher already has won 3 juvenile races this meeting, including the Alcibiades Stakes and Breeders’ Futurity. So Smooth is a Chad Brown trainee by strong Kee dirt sire Curlin and formidable. Steve Asmussen’s 4 wins in Kee Fall 7F 2YO MSW races are most of any trainer and he’s got Blue Line debuting. Note Pletcher (3 such wins) as well as Brad Cox (3 such wins) are repped, the latter by Air of Defiance.


6th Race
Second-level (N2X) allowance runners go 1-1/16 miles on dirt in Wednesday’s feature race. Trainer Brad Cox has more Fall Meet dirt route ALW wins than any other trainer (8) and sends out Ashland runner-up Punchbowl and Curlin filly Insignia from the rail. We’ve noted here Cox hits more than 31% in Kee 1-1/16 miles races (45% with favorites) and is phenomenal with those runners from the rail, winning an incredible 9 of 13, so perhaps Insignia can upset her more noted stablemate. Scratch Kat was second in a similar race to this one during the ’22 Fall Meet, while Jag Warrior won here during the same meet at 7F via disqualification.


7th Race
The lone turf race on the card is a 1-1/16 miles grass allowance for entry-level (N1X) runners. Turf allowance races have been total chalk this meet so far with 7 of 10 favorites winning and not a single payoff above 4-1 odds. Five winners hailed from Kentucky Downs preps, no other circuit more than 1 winner so far. Seven of these come via KD, but it’s the right place to start whittling. If the chalk train continues, Chad Brown’s KD recent winner Hola Gata would be no surprise at all. Trainer Victoria Oliver has a pair of grass wins at the current meet and aims for a third with Our Dotsie off a Kentucky Downs effort. The average winner in 1-1/16 miles turf races this meet so far has been 5 lengths off the lead after the opening half-mile, playing heavily toward late runners.


8th Race
Two-year-old maiden claimers sprint 6 furlongs on dirt in the finale. Lean heavily toward experienced runners here, who have won 40 of 50 such MCL juvenile dashes in past Fall Meets on dirt. Favorites underperform slightly around 30% with an average winner a very juicy 7-to-1 odds. Churchill preppers have 21 of the wins (no other circuit more than 5), including Andy’s Candy at 3-1 in last week’s offering. Running Munnin and This Time Blue are the CD reps worth a long look (the latter trained by Chris Hartman, who saddled Andy’s Candy in a similar win last week), while experienced NYRA prepper Catalina Crush also makes a ton of sense. The winner figures to come from that group if Ozone fails to draw in from the AE list.

[ConleyPicks]

Caton Bredar

Keeneland Race Comments Wednesday Oct 18

1st Race
Maiden claimers can be unpredictable but in the opener, the top contenders seems to have the upper hand. 9-Stage Bell exits better maiden special weight competition, turns back in distance and moves from turf back to the dirt where she's enjoyed her best finish. Likely to sit a stalking trip and, with experience, be running strong at the end. 6-Velocheetah also drops in for a claiming price for the first time and managed a second place finish in her debut against better. 7-Jubilant Joanie takes the blinkers off and will likely set the pace but for how long? Filly moves up in class off the claim for a good claiming trainer in Tom Amoss.


2nd Race
Tricky starter allowance where a case can be made for just about everyone. 8-Tee Burns rides a three race win streak and was claimed last out for $40,000 in a winning effort which definitely puts him at the top of this class. Colt can lead but is equally effective sitting just off the pace, and there appears to be a lot of pace courtesy of 6-Slam Dunk Sermon and 9-Pure Panic. 5-The Distractor is another who can show speed but may be better off stalking, as he did in victory going shorter at Gulfstream last fall. Second start off the layoff with Tyler Gaffalione getting the call, although barn has been a bit quiet this meet. 7-Blue Kentucky likes Keeneland and just won at this level at Churchill following a 90 day layoff, although this appears to be a slightly tougher group. Still has to be respected in a very tough race.


3rd Race
1-East Shore races off the layoff for Dale Romans and has been knocking on the door against better. Filly broke her maiden at this 1-1/16th distance. Look for her to sit a perfect stalking trip on the rail. 7-Windy Bay will likely supply a bit of early pace and, if left alone, could get brave. 9-Efficacious has never raced on dirt nor has she gone beyond 6 furlongs, but she's a half sister to a horse who won long on dirt, and the Presque Isle invader has a pedigree to adapt. She also may find herself on or close to the pace with everyone else having to run and chase her home. 8-I Feel the Need doesn't have much early turn of foot but off the layoff, could be the one to pick up the pieces if there is a battle up front.


4th Race
5-Thestral has done more lately than most of her rivals, with a win and runner up finish in her last two starts. She can press or stalk and seems to be putting things together. 7-Such Sounds makes her second start on the dirt and didn't run badly in her first try. She's another who can stalk the pace with several who could vie for the lead early to create a pretty solid pace. 2-Mustang Lady moves turf to dirt and, coming out of longer races, will likely be running late but could definitely be a fringe player.


5th Race
Fun group of maiden two year olds kick off the late Pick 4 with half the field having the benefit of a start. Edge to 11-Air of Defiance who exits a particularly tough maiden race at Saratoga on a muddy track. The son of Quality Road got off awkwardly and still ran well to be second. He's trained well since for trainer Brad Cox, who has an amazing 57% strike rate with current leading rider Luis Saez up, and the extra furlong seems to suit. First time starter 6-Justifreak is out of a broodmare whose offspring frequently win first out (4 of 5 foals to race all won their respective debuts). 4-Popweiser is a half brother to the talented graded stakes winner Search Results and he's been working well at Keeneland for Wayne Catalano, who knows a thing or two about getting a juvenile ready.


6th Race
4-Punchbowl looks a stand out in a second level allowance after finishing a close second in the Ashland at Keeneland in the spring. The Cox charge makes her first start since the spring and is reunited with Flavian Prat, who was aboard when she broke her maiden in her debut at Oaklawn as well as in the Ashland. Cox appears to have a powerful 1-2 punch with 1-InSignia making her third start off a layoff and definitely capable at the distance. The daughter of Curlin can sit a stalking trip and finish strongly. 2-Shezz Koldazice is also interesting off the claim for Mike Maker. The filly appears to like Keeneland and has been popular at the claim box.


7th Race
A very competitive first level turf allowance features several horses coming off rough trips. 7-Holy Foley appeared to lose all chance after getting pinched way back at the start of her most recent out at Kentucky Downs. She rallied to finish second that day in a race that has already produced a Keeneland winner in Lilac Girl, and she possesses a great late turn of foot. 5-Hola Gate has also been the victim of some tough luck but put it together to break her maiden last out at Kentucky Downs. The daughter of Kitten's Joy fits with these ability wise although the competition gets tougher now that she's facing winners. 4-Our Dotsie is an improving daughter of Oscar Performance who should be even better with longer distances. 1-Empirical View is another who has been running well despite trouble and, moving up off her maiden victory, is interesting at a price.


8th Race
The finale features maiden two year olds running for a $150,000 claiming price and, as can be expected, is tough to decipher. New York-bred 6-Catalina Crush ran two solid efforts in NY in restricted company. While it's probably a lateral move from those races to this, he's done enough to think he can get the job done here if he just improves a little. 7-Knicks Storm debuts for Ben Colebrook who doesn't usually gear a horse up for his debut, but the colt is training very quickly in the morning at Keeneland. 9-We Miss Arlington also shows some quick works and debuts for Jimmy DiVito, a sharp conditioner with young horses particularly.

[ConleyPicks]

Ed DeRosa

Hard to believe we're already making the turn toward the end of the meeting. I.e., 7 days down w/ 8 to go. I.e. Today is the literal halfway point of the 2023 fall meeting. Hump day? You bet! ��
Another hump I'd like to think I'm getting over is the mound of shame for those who do not pick winners. We had a couple hat tricks to close out week 2, and while our ROI is still well in red, I feel good about the last two days.
And I feel good about Wednesday, Oct. 18! Current stats: 78-16-15-10 (20.5% win, 52.5% ItM, -19.6% ROI)

1st Race
Thought both #s 7 & 9 were close here, but two variables made it a no brainer to put #7 Jubilant Joanie on top. For one, Jubilant Joanie is 6-to-1 on the morning line versus 7-to-2 for #9 Stage Bell. But even more important, Jubilant Joanie looks to have a decided pace edge against these. Trainer Tom Amoss has good numbers off the claim, and horses coming out of the Ortiz barn after a claim are 20% winners.

PICKS: 7-9-2-6

2nd Race
#6 Slam Dunk Sermon has consistently shown he fits this level, and trainers agree given that the six-year-old gelding is on his fifth barn in the past 16 months. And again, he's been consistent. He just fits this group and figures to get the right trip given he has shown ability either on or right off the pace. #2 Lyken ships in from Illinois and sports some number power that makes him a must use at the 8-to-1 morning line.

PICKS: 6-2-5-7-8

3rd Race
We took a big swing in the lid lifter on Sunday, and while our top pick didn't get his picture taken, felt he vindicated our tab with a third-place finish at 40-to-1. We're on a similar longshot here in #9 Efficacious, stretching out for his dirt debut after a couple good efforts on the Tapeta at Presque Isle Downs. She'll be overlooked because of the connections but she fits. #8 I Feel the Need will be running late.

PICKS: 9-8-1-7

4th Race
I gave a long look to #4 Sandra D as a front-end threat at 4-to-1 morning line but ultimately landed on favorite #5 Thestral, who is making his second start for the Tom Amoss barn. First effort was a good one, getting caught late but Gaffalione returns for this race and any improvement makes her tough.

PICKS: 5-4-2-7

5th Race
We'll see if we actually get 8-to-1 on a debut runner from the barn of Todd Pletcher, though Joel Rosario is having a rough meet, so maybe that'll temper enthusiasm. Not This Time colt was a $450,000 yearling buy and working steadily toward this. #7 So Smooth is a similarly nice price from a powerful barn (Chad Brown), but unlike our top pick only cost a modest $200,000 at a yearling sale last year. I say "only" and "modest" because that price was off a $225,000 stud fee. #11 Air of Defiance was fine on debut from the rail but now get marooned on the outside.

PICKS: 9-7-11

6th Race
The most likely winner of the day is #4 Punchbowl, who I upgraded after seeing First Mission be much the best on Saturday at Keeneland. Brad Cox trains both, and like Punchbowl, First Mission was off since the Keeneland spring meeting. She's just better than these. Where the value hopefully comes from is I'm not sure any of #s 2, 3, or 6 are any worse than #s 1 & 5, the clear next tier of choices behind Punchbowl.

PICKS: 4-2-3-6

7th Race
No stakes until Saturday, so I guess that makes this allowance the feature, and it's a good one. And you know me, if I like an also eligible then I love an also eligible. #13 Be My Sunshine hasn't had a bad race on turf, and even the lone synthetic try was an OK speed-and-fade against graded stakes types. Then she stretched out at Kentucky Downs and passed some horses to get into contention before stalling after a wide journey against a full field. #5 Hola Gata will need pace to run into. She also might need a new jockey if Gaffalione sticks with the also eligible if that one draws in. #8 Charlee O could crash the verticals at 20-to-1 morning line. Will try to lead them all the way.

PICKS: 13-5-8-7

8th Race
Trainer Norm Casse has huge numbers on the drop to maiden claiming, and #6 Catalina Crush figures to benefit from that move as neither of his starts to date were all that bad--he was just outclassed. Of the firsters, give #3 Track Light the best look given the ideal draw and trainer Brendan Walsh has a flat-bet profit with his debut maiden claimers.

PICKS: 6-3-10

[ConleyPicks]

Tom Leach

The runnerup from the grade 1 Ashland Stakes makes her comeback in today's sixth race. That's a potential single in the late pick 4 but the other races around that one are hard to narrow down.

1st Race
10-Imperator Furiosa had the rail for her debut and that can be tough on a first-timer unless the horse break fast, which this one did not. Trainer Ben Colebrook does really well on this angle of dropping into maiden-claiming company. 6-Velocheetah had trouble at the start last time so we'll forgive that dismal effort that followed and her debut back in May would give her a big chance in this field. 2-Lady Free Will showed a little late run in the debut and any positive is worth noting in this group.


2nd Race
8-Tee Burns in lifetime best form with three straight wins and the trainer has great numbers with horses that he just claimed. 5-The Distractor makes the second start off a layoff and gets Gafflione to ride. 3-Solidify has eight lifetime wins and this barn's runners have done well in limited starts at this meet. 6-Slam Dunk Sermon has won three of his last five. 7-Blue Kentucky likes this track.


3rd Race
8-I Feel the Need has been facing better than she sees here and maybe this is the one that will get Lanerie to that magic 5,000 wins. 3-Steel Racer ran well two starts back and may have moved up too far in class for the first try against winners. Dropping to the 40k level might move her forward and you get Saez in the saddle. 7-Windy Bay has good speed but I'm skeptical of her win chances with five runnerup finishes. 4-Catherine Blaze comes off a nice win.


4th Race
5-Thestral ran her best race in the first start for the Amoss barn and she ran well here last fall. 3-Spicy Italian drops into claiming company and Catalano has good numbers in that department. 7-Such Sounds wasn't far behind the top pick last time out.


5th Race
12-Anthem King is a first-timer and seven furlongs is a big ask for the debut but I like the six-furlong work last week. That suggest a little extra amount of fitness for this one and the previous week, he broke a minute for five furlongs. 6-Justifreak draws Johnny V in the saddle for the Kenneally barn--I don't recall seeing that combo too often here. 11-Air of Defense was second in the debut but the winner didn't do much running next time out. 4-Popweiser shows fast works here for a barn that seems to have some promising two-year olds. And I have to include 9-Its'myluckytime because the Pletcher babies have run so well here.


6th Race
4-Punchbowl looks like a "single" in the late pick 4. She was second in the grade 1 Ashland in only her third start. If she loses, 5-Skratch Kat will likely be the one to pull off the upset. She's run well here and worked very well last week. 1-Insignia is the "other" Cox runner and the barn merits respect.



7th Race
3-Tituba is an interesting one to consider at 8-1 on the morning line. He had a 73 Beyer figure on September 13 at Kentucky Downs and was wide when you needed to be inside to win. Also, it's the third start for this new barn. 5-Hola Gata ran well in his last two starts. 13-Be My Sunshine merits respect for the Ramsey-Joseph-Gafflione team. 7-Holy Foley has been solid in two of the last three starts. 1-Empirical View really improved in his turf debut.


8th Race
No strong opinion here. 6-Catalina Crush was third in his debut at Saratoga and the Norm Casse barn does well on this drop to MCL angle. 2-Runnin Munnin was fourth in the debut and might improve in the second start. 3-Track Light is a first-timer from the Walsh barn. 8-Sterling Honor debuts for the Riley Mott barn and they won with a firster earlier this meet. 11-Karlwithanarl is a first-timer with some solid works at the training center.

[ConleyPicks]

Ellis Starr

Wednesday October 18, 2023

Race 6 at Keeneland
Post Time 3:40 p.m. eastern time
Key Win Contender(s) in preference order with minimum odds for considering win bets:
#1 Insignia – minimum win betting odds 3 to 2
#4 Punchbowl – minimum win betting odds – 3 to 2
Exactas: Box 1, 4

Insignia and Punchbowl are both trained by Brad Cox and both have similar records. Insignia has won twice and placed twice in five races. Punchbowl has won twice and placed once in three races. Insignia gets slight preference as she ran in July and in August whereas Punchbowl last ran in April, and as her starting odds are 7 to 2 as compared to 4 to 5 for Punchbowl. The reason Punchbowl opens as the heavy favorite is that her last race before the layoff came in the Grade 1 Ashland Stakes, a prep for the Kentucky Oaks. Punchbowl finished second in that race and was the betting favorite after a strong win one month earlier. Punchbowl did not participate in the Oaks and went on break before resuming training this summer. Punchbowl is a very good filly but there is a question of being able to run back to those races from March and April compared to Insignia, who just ran as well in July and in August, winning the race in July then finishing second at this allowance level in August. Cox brought First Mission back from a layoff since April in the 10th race on Sunday and the colt won, but just by a neck, so there is little doubt Punchbowl can win, but I feel Insignia has races which are as fast as her stablemate and she gets a good inside position which might afford her the slightest advantage in the final yards.