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Brandon Lang
25 Dimer Seton Hall
5 Dimer Under GTown/St. Johns
5 Dimer Cleveland State
5 Dimer Weber State
25 Dimer Seton Hall
5 Dimer Under GTown/St. Johns
5 Dimer Cleveland State
5 Dimer Weber State
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Re: 3-10-09
Al
At 2:20 pm, our BIG EAST Conference Tourney Blowout of the Year is on the Georgetown Hoyas minus the points over St Johns.
At 9:30 pm, our High Roller selection is on Montana State plus the points over Weber State.
At 9 pm, our selection is on the Butler Bulldogs minus the points over Cleveland State. -
Re: 3-10-09
Dr Bob.
2 Star Selection
Dallas (+6) over PHOENIX
10-Mar-09 07:05 PM Pacific Time
The Mavericks and Suns have split their two games this season, with Dallas winning the first meeting by 15 points and the Phoenix winning the most recent match-up by 28 points. That 28 point thrashing sets up the Mavericks in a very good 50-11-3 ATS humiliation revenge situation tonight and the line is a bit high in this game. The Suns appeared to be a better team when they fired coach Terry Porter and went back to their up-tempo style that had been so successful in recent years, but the season ending injury to All-Star F Amare Stoudemire has hurt the Suns a bit and most of their recent wins have come against bad teams. After starting the Alvin Gentry era with blowout wins over the Clippers twice and Oklahoma City, the Suns are just 3-6 straight up since and my ratings favor the Suns by just 4 points using their games without Stoudemire against the Mavericks’ 18 games this season without Josh Howard, who is also out for this game. I also get 4 points using the Mavericks’ games without Howard against all the Suns games this season with point guard Steve Nash playing, so a line of Phoenix by 6 appears to be much too high. I’ll take Dallas in a 2-Star Best Bet at +5 points or more.
2-Stars at +5 or more.
COLLEGE
4 Star Selection
BUTLER (-5 ½) over Cleveland State
10-Mar-09 06:00 PM Pacific Time
Butler had a tough time with Cleveland State this season, as both of the Bulldogs’ victories were by just 2 points. However, Butler made just 10 of their 37 3-point shots in those 2 games (27%) and converted on only 18 of 34 free-throws, which is pretty random considering that Butler has made 36% of their 3-pointers for the season and is a very good free-throw shooting team (72.5%). Cleveland State is a good defensive team, but they allowed 33% 3-point shooting to teams that combine to averaged 34% long range shooting and my math model projects 34.5% 3-point shooting for Butler after factoring in Cleveland State’s defense. Butler would have won the two games against Cleveland State by an average of 8 points had the Bulldogs and Vikings both shot their expected percentage from 3-point range and the free-throw line and Butler should win this game at home by more than 6 points. My ratings favor Butler by 9 points and the Bulldogs apply to a very strong 29-1 ATS conference tournament home team situation that won for us last week with Wright State over Valparaiso and they also apply to a very strong 52-9-1 ATS conference tournament final game situation that won last night with Gonzaga. That same situation also applied to Butler last year in a 70-55 win as a 9 point favorite over Cleveland State in the finals of this tournament. Cleveland State is without one of their best players in guard D’Aundrey Brown, who not only shot 51% from the floor this season, but also grabbed an average of 5.7 rebounds (excellent for a guard) and averaged 1.7 steals per game. Brown missed some time in the middle of the season and Cleveland State struggled as the visitor without him, losing at Wright State by 9 points after losing Brown 12 minutes into the game and the Vikings also lost by 15 at Green Bay and lost and failed to cover at Milwaukee and Youngstown. That’s 0-4 straight up and ATS as the road team without Brown and overall the Vikings played about 1 ½ points worse in 10 games without Brown this season and that is certainly not factored into this line. I lost a Best Bet on Butler -7 against Cleveland State on February 28th, but that loss was a function of random negative variance, as Butler made just 3 of 16 3-pointers and only 9 of 21 foul shots in that game instead of the 5 to 6 3-pointers and 15 free-throws that they should have made in that game. Butler would have covered that game had they simply made their normal 72% from the line instead of 43% - even with the poor 3-point shooting. In this meeting at Butler the spread is one point lower than it was a few weeks ago and Cleveland State is without one of their most effective players, so this is an even better bet. I’ll take Butler in a 4-Star Best Bet at -6 or less, for 3-Stars from -6 ½ to -8 and for 2-Stars at -8 ½ or -9.
4-Stars at -6 or less, 3-Stars from -6 1/2 to -8, 2-Stars at -8 1/2 or -9.
3 Star Selection
Western Kentucky (-4) over South Alabama
10-Mar-09 07:00 PM Pacific Time
Western Kentucky applies to a very good 110-36-4 ATS conference tournament situation that is 42-12-2 ATS in the final, and my ratings favor the Hilltoppers by 4 ½ points – so the line is fair. I’ll take Western Kentucky in a 3-Star Best Bet at -4 points or less and for 2-Stars at -4 ½ or -5 points.
3-Stars at -4 or less, 2-Stars at -4 1/2 or -5.
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