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Saturday 10/21/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc
PSP's Data Driven 1* NCAAF Free Pick.
Free Pick: Penn State+5.5
At Professionalsportspicks we see a future where those handicapping sports without advanced analytics and data-driven strategies will be left behind. Our data-driven picks use data integration, search and discovery, and knowledge management along with collaboration with our in-house handicappers. By isolating relevant trends, removing human bias, and targeting only lines with a positive expected value above a certain threshold, our data-driven picks promise to outperform any and all human competitors.
Our models suggest that the value is on the Underdog. Penn State are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games. Penn State are 7-0 in their last 7 games against an opponent in the Big Ten conference.
Both Penn State and Ohio State are coming into the weekend 6-0 SU, but the Nittany Lions are 6-0 ATS while the Buckeyes are 3-3 ATS. I think Penn State's success against the spread will continue here.
The Buckeyes are dealing with injuries to their running backs and star receiver Emeka Egbuka. They'll need all possible threats to break a defense that ranks first in the nation with only 193.7 yards per game allowed. The Buckeyes' defense is also solid, but I much rather take the points than give points if this is going to turn into a defensive battle, which it most likely will.
Over the last three seasons, the Nittany Lions are 9-3 ATS on the road and 14-6 ATS against conference opponents. PSU is 6-1 ATS in the last seven head-to-heads.
Penn State has not played a soul, and I’m sure their players and coaching staff have heard it all week, but I still like them here, and the fact that the total has come crashing down below some key numbers, but the spread has gone the other way making those points even more valuable. Penn State’s defense seems legit, and they also seem to have the better rushing offense despite the strength of schedule. Ohio State also has been banged up quite a bit, and I’ve seen some red flags from this team at different points. First of all they are only averaging 3.47 ypc in conference play, their game against Indiana looks a lot worse now, and the game against Notre Dame they should have lost. Kyle McCord’s #’s look outstanding, but there are some things that I have seen from him that make me worry against a top defense like Penn State. Penn State’s overall #’s are better than Notre Dames, and I just think this game is going to come down to a field goal.
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