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Saturday 10/21/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc
This is a play on the WISCONSIN BADGERS-2.5 for our Saturday Free Play. Wisconsin is coming off a loss at home against Iowa despite outgaining the Hawkeyes as it was -2 in turnovers and could not solve the stout Iowa defense. The Badgers have outgained all but two opponents this season and those two were just by a combined 12 yards as turnovers have been a difference throughout the season, losing the takeaway battle four times. The other loss was at Washington St. where they were -3 in turnovers so had they taken better care of the ball in both nine-point defeats, Wisconsin could be undefeated right now. The Badgers own defense checks the boxes as they are No. 38 overall and No. 20 in scoring while the offense has a much easier test this week despite the loss of quarterback Tanner Mordecai who has not been very good to begin with. Illinois is coming off an upset at Maryland as a 13-point underdog despite getting outgained and that was the sixth time in seven games the Liili have been outgained. The win can bring in some momentum but being on the wrong side of the stats game in and game out is a problem. The three wins have been by a combined 12 points while their four losses have been by a total of 66 points and all have been by double digits. The offense has struggled to score as they are No. 119 in scoring offense and defensively they have been bad all around, ranking No. 82 or worse in overall, scoring, rushing and passing defense. This is a great bounce back spot for Wisconsin and it will have revenge in mind after a 24-point home loss last season. Play (365) Wisconsin Badgers
Free Play from Doc’s Sports. Take #369 Over 31.5 in Minnesota Golden Gophers @ Iowa Hawkeyes (3:30p.m., Saturday, October 21 NBC) It is not often you find a total in college football this low, but Iowa and Minnesota have a lot of issues on offense. That being said, I expect one of these teams to reach the twenties in scoring and if that happen, we should be in great shape to collect with the over. Iowa offensive coordinator Brian Ferentz had a stipulation in his contract to average at least 24 points per game. He has fallen below that pace and needs an offensive output in one of the games going forward. Minnesota has gone way over this total in their last 4 games and this one should reach the forties. We will not worry about who wins this game and instead just focus on the over. Do not miss out on Doc’s Sports weekend card highlighted by our famous Big 10 Game of the Year. Sign-up now once it is released and let Doc provide you this big play winner for a third straight week.
Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. Here in this game the recent history of these two teams is particularly significant.
- The Under is 4-1 in Tennessee's last 5 games.
- The Under is 5-1 in Tennessee's last 6 games on the road.
- The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Tennessee's last 9 games against an opponent in the West Division.
Verdict: Points should be hard to come by in this game.
Give me Washington State +20.5 on the road against the Ducks. The stock on the Cougars has plummeted the last two weeks. First it was a 17-25 loss at UCLA, where the defense failed to get going against a good Bruins defense. Then came a shocking 38-point loss at home to Arizona as a 7.5-point favorite last week. Hard to believe we will see a worst performance by the Cougars all season. I just don't see this team coming out flat after that embarrassing opponent. Not when they are facing a team like Oregon. Washington State has quality wins over both Wisconsin and Oregon State. I expect them to put up a fight against Oregon and if they do, they should have no problem keeping this within 3 scores. I also feel like it's a bit of a flat spot for the Ducks, who just had their undefeated season snapped in a 33-36 loss at Washington. Oregon put everything they had into that game. I could sleep-walking thru the 1st half of this game and needing a late charge to pull out a win. Give me Washington State +20.5!
North Texas has the No. 1 rated offense in the American Athletic Conference. So why am I laying three touchdowns with Tulane?
Because the Mean Green offense is going to have problems on the road against Tulane's defense, which ranks sixth in fewest rushing yards allowed and is eighth in sacks.
The 23th-ranked Green Wave also are capable of unleashing a ton of points against North Texas, which has one of the worst defenses in the country. The Mean Green rank last in run defense, sixth from the bottom in total defense and 122nd in scoring defense surrendering 35.5 points a game.
Michael Pratt is one of the best quarterbacks in the land and he has plenty of weapons to exploit North Texas, which lost, 58-21, to California. The Green Wave have the top-rated offense in the American Athletic Conference.
Tulane is an underrated power having won 17 of its last 20 games. Tulane coach Willie Fritz said his team has yet to play their best game. That's a scary thought for North Texas.
There will be some weather at UConn on Saturday which is suppressing this total. I think it has been bet down too far at this point, and there's value with the OVER. South Florida is 4-0 OVER in its last four games overall with 71, 74, 91 and 70 combined points. UConn is 3-0 OVER in its last three games coming off 69 and 67 combined points against Rice and Utah State, respectively. South Florida plays at the 2nd-fastest tempo in the entire country so there will be more possessions for both teams. The Bulls give up 36.1 points per game, 455 yards per game and 6.4 yards per play on the season. UConn gives up 31.5 points per game and 6.0 yards per play on the season. UConn's offense has shows big improvements in recent weeks scoring 33 on Utah State and 38 on Rice. Both teams should be able to get 30-plus in this one, but we don't even need that much to cash this ticket. Give me the OVER.
*3 Star Free Play on Over 61 Colorado State/UNLV* The UNLV Rebels have piled up the points in every game they have played except for when they played Michigan. No one scores on Michigan, so we definitely won't hold that against them. In their other games, UNLV has scored 44, 40, 45, 44, and 45 points. Barry Odom's team is playing at a top 35 pace in the country, and their efficiency has been extremely impressive.
Colorado State's offense plays at a top ten pace. The Rams have a freak of an athlete on the outside in Tory Horton. No one from UNLV is a great cover corner. Horton should have a big day here. Fowler-Nicolosi is a gunslinger at quarterback for Colorado State. He has a big arm and is capable of some great things, but he is also very capable of pick sixes going the other way.
I think there will be both a ton of possessions in this game and a lot of passing. Colorado State is throwing the ball on 65% of their offensive snaps.
I couldn't blame you if you like Florida State here. I mean, going as far back as we can remember, they have won all 21 previous meetings with Duke. Does it matter that they've only met twice over the last decade? Probably not. They are 6-0 straight up on the season, covering four of their six outings. Going back to last season, they are riding a 12-game straight up win streak. And yes, the Blue Devils quarterback situation remains uncertain as of posting this play. But I think we can all agree that at times this season, the Seminoles have looked vulnerable. Lest we forget not only did Duke play well against the likes of Clemson, Notre Dame, and NC State, winning two of those SU. They did hang tough with the Fighting Irish, we can't take that away from them. They enter this match up with the nation’s 20th ranked rushing attack. They can move the chains on the ground and eat up some clock. On the flipside, they possess the fourth-ranked defense in college football, allowing just 9.8 points per game. FSU just might come in here a little overconfident and get caught off guard. Too many points. Take the Blue Devils. Thank you.
So last week the Trojans lost 48-20 at Notre Dame, and they turned the ball over five times. This has me thinking of last year, when they lead the nation in turnover margin. That good fortune was not going to last forever, and they come into this week with a negative turnover margin on the season. The Utes rank Top 10 in the country in turnover margin, and they dominated USC in both meetings last year. The fact that USC is asked to cover 7-points here coming off a brutal loss, suggests that people expect them to just flip the switch and get back to their winning ways. What if the team that lost to Notre Dame is a more accurate representation of this team than in any other game this season? Utah definitely misses Cam Rising and their starting TE, but they still have an elite defense and they ran for over 300 yards and four TDs in a win over Cal last week. If you are thinking to yourself that "Cal sucks".. yeah sure but defensively USC is roughly the same. I will roll the dice here, expecting Utah to score enough, and cause enough havoc on defense to keep this a close game.
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