Monday 10/30/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-30-2023, 01:45 PM

Al Cimaglia: Yonkers Raceway Late Pick 4 Analysis

October 30, 2023 | By Al Cimaglia
Yonkers Raceway has a compact 9-race card to begin the week. The 0.50 Pick 5 starts in Race 5, and it has a $10,000 guaranteed pool. The $1.00 Late Pick 4 rolls in Race 6, and it will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 6 (8:40 PM EST)

5-Idealsomemagic A 9/2-Had won 2 straight, then moved up to this class and raced evenly. Looking for a better effort with Jordan Stratton taking the lines for his brother. The main foes start outside, and the price is right to use. The best chance to win might be to leave hard.
6-American Mercury 7/2-Comes off an efficient win against this kind. Left with good speed and landed in the 2 hole which led to a trip out win. Joe B might try a similar plan and the outcome could be the same.
7-Backstreet Shadow 5/2-Ships back after not doing well in his Breeders Crown Elimination at HoP. This veteran knows how to win, has taken 11 pictures in 30 starts this year. May need to come off cover with this post draw but the fractions should be lively. Has won 43% of its starts at YR, and it’s risky to leave off the ticket even with the 7-hole.

Race 7 (9:00 PM EST)

2-Covered Bridge 5/2-The classy veteran has been battling better. It has been quite a while since facing this competition and should relish the company. Stratton will probably look to take control early on and not look back.

Race 8 (9:20 PM EST)

1-Seven Hundred (5/2)-Faced this kind leaving from post 3 last time and just missed. Should get the top or a pocket ride and is a player but has missed a start.
3-Jack's Legend N (2-1)-Beaten chalk landed at the back off the gate last week and will look for a better beginning. Went off at even money and probably won't get that kind of respect this time.
5-Luckbewithalex (7/2)-Tried to wire the field and faded late. Will look for a different plan tonight. Has the gate speed to get a decent seat. The fractions should be lively, Buter could duck and then rally down the lane.

Race 9 (9:40 PM EST)

1-Won Last Feeling (4-1)-Recent form has been dull when facing $50k claimers and now drops. Did beat the $40k claimers on 10-2. The driver change to Dube might make a difference and could be sitting on big try.
3-Ballerat Boomerang (5/2)- Beat the $40k claimers on 10/16 and was claimed. Now makes the first start for the Temming barn, right back at the same level. Won easily last time, and Brennan could work a similar trip from this post.

$1.00 Late Pick 4

5,6,7/2/1,3,5/1,3
Total Bet=$18

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-30-2023, 01:45 PM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Mahoning Valley - Race #1

#6 El Bandido	Think he's coming into this the right way while rising off some improving form with cheaper, and the price might be right with a decent spying trip waiting for him.
#3 Knicks Story	He's supposed to win this on paper with the shift from Horseshoe Indianapolis, but I worry that he has already come up short in races in which he looked really logical, and I wonder if he might settle underneath again at a short price. Tough call.
#2 Finistere	He showed little in the debut run at Thistledown, but I wouldn't be shocked to see something at least a little bit better with that race under his belt. Get a look on the track.
Race Summary	El Bandido has a little price appeal for me while stepping up in the best form of his career. Outside of the likely chalk, I'm not sure who else you're supposed to be really afraid of in here.

Mahoning Valley - Race #7

#7 Returnoninvestment	He had already landed a couple underneath shares in stakes company before even winning his first race, so he's got a little quality to him for this kind of race. He has rattled off two easy scores -- both at 10 cents on the dollar -- and is probably going to be a handful again here if he can hold form.
#4 Specialized	He has a pace edge on the top choice, so there is some chance he shakes off the other potential pace player and winds up being the one to catch turning for home. Most likely alternative.
#3 A Prayer for Kids	He might sneak by at a midrange price in here, but I think his two- and three-back route tries would keep him in the frame for a some piece of this if he can get back to them while stretching out again.
Race Summary	Returnoninvestment isn't going to be any kind of price in here, but he also seems unlikely to lose if he brings his baseline effort again today. Specialized has a high enough ceiling to take advantage if that guy doesn't fire his best, but I wouldn't want to be two-deep on a ticket with a couple potential short prices. I'll stand with the one looking for a hat trick.

Mahoning Valley - Race #8

#4 Miss Springsteen	She hasn't really finished any of her races with a lot of punch, but the barn does pretty good work in this kind of spot locally, and the price should be right to see if she can grind out a score over the new footing.
#8 R Secret Love	Guessing she's going to take some action for a Wesley Ward barn that is known for getting their debuters ready to roll out of the box, but it's worth noting Ward rarely sends them here and lost with one at 4/5 here a few years back in the only similar local start. The one to beat, but I doubt she has to win this.
#7 Compute This	She showed tracking pace but couldn't quite hang late in the debut run, but she took a little action that day and might have something better to offer after that first trip to post. Forward threat.
Race Summary	R Secret Love probably takes cash for a team that deserves it given their overall reputation with first-time starters, but Miss Springsteen makes the local debut with a few races under her belt, and I could see her even running style working a bit better with this group.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-30-2023, 01:45 PM

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Golden Gate - Race #1

#2 TWELVE VOLT (6-1)	Joins cast of stretch-out sprinters, changes riders, sire was top-shelf router.
#3 CLASSY CITY (9-5)	Should lead for as far as he goes on drop from MSW ranks.
#7 KLIMIT A P (9-2)	Only entrant with good one-mile race to summon, returns on similar rest.
Race Summary	TWELVE VOLT improved position in his most recent sprint, now takes a class drop for a high-percentage barn with maiden claimers. He has been well-backed at the windows but should offer good value in his first route attempt. Bet to win and place.

Golden Gate - Race #4

#3 BRANNIGAN (6-1)	Took 27 starts to break maiden but did it well, taken to repeat.
#5 COUNT ASHER (4-1)	Stalked fast pace and faded in return as a gelding for a $12,500 tag.
#7 ANTHONY’S BEST (5-2)	Won in a photo finish, lost in a photo finish at Golden Gate recently.
Race Summary	BRANNIGAN earned the top speed figure of his career in a front-end win at Fresno on short rest last out. He took command at the quarter pole and held off the late-running favorite to prevail. He was 0-for-26 going in but there’s no reason to think he can’t repeat in a field that is a combined 9-for-110. Bet to win and place.

Golden Gate - Race #7

#6 WILL IS CHILL (6-1)	Good try off seven-month layoff two back, class drop could be winning answer.
#5 SEA OF LIBERTY (2-1)	Looks best on paper but ‘For Sale’ sign is up on drop to bottom level.
#3 TAM’S TIME (10-1)	Sports 6/2-1-3 mark in last six starts on all-weather track.
Race Summary	WILL IS CHILL made two unsuccessful runs at the pace setter before the favorite passed by both of them on the main track two back. It was his first start after seven months away and he looms dangerous again on the class drop. Bet to win and place.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-30-2023, 01:48 PM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Horsemen's Park

PURCHASE

Horsemen's Park - Race 1	WIN WAGERING ONLY
Claiming $5,000 • 1 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 65 • Purse: $8,500 • Post: 11:00
FOR CERTIFIED NE BRED COLTS AND GELDINGS THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WITH $8,500 OF WHICH $3,200 TO THE OWNER OF THE WINNER; $2,150 TO SECOND AND $1,500 TO THIRD; ADDITIONALLY, JOCKEYS ARE TO BE PAID $550 EACH. THE FIELD WILL BE LIMITED TO THREE HORSES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 123 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000 FIRST PREFERENCE TO HORSES THAT HAVE STARTED IN NEBRASKA IN 2023.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Dominant Stalker. CHIEF TY HE is the Dominant Stalker of the race. * KEY ANGLES * CHIEF TY HE: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. REPORT TO DUTY: Horse ranks in the top t hree in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. LUCKY LIQUOR SHOT: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days.
1	CHIEF TY HE	7/2	8/5
3	REPORT TO DUTY	8/5	5/1
2	LUCKY LIQUOR SHOT	2/1	6/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	CHIEF TY HE	1	7/2	Alternator/Stalker	67	50	48.8	54.8	52.3
2	LUCKY LIQUOR SHOT	2	2/1	Alternator/Stalker	56	54	46.2	35.4	29.9
3	REPORT TO DUTY	3	8/5	Trailer	61	54	41.8	51.2	47.7

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-30-2023, 01:49 PM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Mountaineer ParkPURCHASE

Mountaineer Park - Race 4	2nd Half Daily Double $2 Exacta $1 Box $1 Trifecta $.50 Box $1 Superfecta $.20 Box $2 Pick 5 (races 4-8) $.50 Wheel
Maiden Special • 1 Mile • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 64 • Purse: $16,500 • Post: 8:15P
FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Dominant Trailer. THE MONSTER IRUS is the Dominant Trailer of the race. * KEY ANGLES * THE MONSTER IRUS: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. INSACIABLE PRINCE: H orse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. WILLIAM'S CAUSE: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface.
8	THE MONSTER IRUS	7/5	5/2
7	INSACIABLE PRINCE	9/2	5/1
5	WILLIAM'S CAUSE	20/1	8/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
3	ANDYLITHIC	3	8/1	Alternator/Front-runner	70	58	39.8	36.0	24.5
1	KNOCKOUT GUY	1	8/1	Alternator/Stalker	67	64	62.3	44.8	40.8
8	THE MONSTER IRUS	8	7/5	Trailer	69	68	62.6	59.7	56.2
7	INSACIABLE PRINCE	7	9/2	Trailer	65	51	56.0	55.8	48.8
5	WILLIAM'S CAUSE	5	20/1	Alternator/Trailer	74	69	50.0	49.0	40.5
9	WILDERZAR	9	5/1	Alternator/Non-contender	57	44	53.3	33.6	22.1
4	MR HARRY	4	15/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	39.5	39.5	27.0
6	ECHOLITE	6	8/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	34.8	34.8	22.8
2	CAB BEEF	2	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	81	76	19.2	19.2	1.2

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-30-2023, 01:49 PM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Finger Lakes

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 7 - Claiming - 5.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $12600 Class Rating: 79

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON TWO RACES SINCE JANUARY 1, 2023. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE AUGUST 30 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 10 DIGITAL FUTURE 5/2
# 5 SAMAY 7/2
# 9 PREPARE FOR GLORY 8/1

DIGITAL FUTURE looks quite good to best this field. He should be considered given the very good speed figs. Could best this group of horses based on the Equibase Speed Fig - 81 - of his last affair. Appears to have a formidable class edge based on the most recent company kept. SAMAY - Shows signs of the look of a money-making play, averaging a solid 71 speed figure which is one of the top in this group. PREPARE FOR GLORY - Can't overlook the connections here, a 15 winning percentage, one of the most competitive at getting into the winner's circle. Has to be carefully examined against this group displaying strong numbers recently and an average speed fig of 71 under similar conditions.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-30-2023, 01:49 PM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Mahoning Valley Race Course - Race #3 - Post: 1:51pm - Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $17,500 Class Rating: 82

Rating:

#4 R CARDINAL PRINCE (ML=5/1)
#1 VAIL OF HONOR (ML=3/1)

R CARDINAL PRINCE - This gelding is in fine form, having run a good race on October 13th, finishing third. Possibly a peak effort for this gelding today. Been getting closer with each recent start. That 78 fig this gelding garnered in his last race tells me he's a key player this time out. VAIL OF HONOR - Horse didn't hit the board in last race, but did beat half the field, and made up ground down the stretch. A slight improvement and this horse should be right there at the end.

Vulnerable Contenders: #9 TOM'S SPIRIT (ML=7/2), #8 POT COMMITTED (ML=4/1), #3 CENTSOFWANDER (ML=6/1),

TOM'S SPIRIT - Will be hard for this horse to beat this group off of that last speed figure. Not probable to improve enough to run a figure close enough to today's Equibase class figure, so put him on the possibly overvalued equines list. POT COMMITTED - Have to put a question mark next to the last speed figure since it was garnered on a muddy track. Will be tough for this mount to beat this group off of that last speed fig. Not probable to improve enough to run a figure close enough to today's class figure, so put him on the likely underlays list. CENTSOFWANDER - I'd like to see better recent outings with oddsmaker's morning line of 6/1. Speed figs of 85/77/74 are started the wrong direction.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Bet on #4 R CARDINAL PRINCE to win if you can get at least 2/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [1,4]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	[1,4] with [1,4] with [2,5,7,8,9] Total Cost: $10
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	[1,4] with [1,4] with [2,5,7] with [2,5,7,8,9] Total Cost: $24

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-30-2023, 01:49 PM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Golden Gate Fields - Race #4 - Post: 2:46pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $13,400 Class Rating: 78

Rating:

#5 COUNT ASHER (ML=4/1)
#7 ANTHONY'S BEST (ML=5/2)
#2 BRONZE ONE (ML=8/1)
#3 BRANNIGAN (ML=6/1)

COUNT ASHER - Taking a trip down the ladder based on class rating points; has the class ability to make his presence felt. This gelding is number one in EPS (earnings per start). Take a long look at this horse in the post parade. ANTHONY'S BEST - The September 16th affair at Golden Gate Fields was at a class level of (83). Dropping down the ladder based on class rating points considerably, so he should be in a good position to win. BRONZE ONE - I like to bet on this handicapping theory, a horse coming back off a strong race within the last thirty days. Gelding took a little vacation, but has been racing into shape. Three consecutive improved speed figures (65-67-69) make this one a powerful contender. BRANNIGAN - Chavez is right back for another affair today after riding on board this horse for the first time on Oct 14th and ought to know the ropes to this one a little better. Chavez and Perez teamed up together are a handicapper's friend. This thoroughbred coming off a nice race in the last thirty days is a strong challenger in my book. Three consecutive improved speed figs (57-59-86) make this one a solid contender.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 ONE LITTLE INDIAN (ML=5/1), #9 TITOS WITH A TWIST (ML=6/1),

ONE LITTLE INDIAN - Can't play this steed in today's sprint of 6 furlongs. Hasn't even finished in the money in a sprint affair lately. Don't believe this questionable contender will do much running in today's event. That last speed rating was most unsatisfactory when compared with today's class rating. TITOS WITH A TWIST - A bit of a less than stellar try when this gelding finished seventh. This gelding hasn't had any in the money results in short distance races in the last sixty days. Should take this one off your contenders roll call with the shortage of speed in that last route contest.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Go with #5 COUNT ASHER on top if we're getting at least 4/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [2,5]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPER HIGH FIVE WAGERS:	[5,7] with [2,3,5,7] with [2,3,5,7] with [1,2,3,4,5,7] with [1,2,3,4,5,7] Total Cost: $72

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-30-2023, 01:49 PM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Horseshoe Indianapolis

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 1 - Claiming - 8.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $14000 Class Rating: 81

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES OR THREE YEARS OLD OR WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE SINCE JANUARY 30, 2023. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE SEPTEMBER 30 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000 INDIANA BRED MAIDENS AND

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 4 SUBURBAN PRINCE 9/5
# 7 GET THROUGH 8/1
# 3 BLOOMING GARDEN 5/2

I think SUBURBAN PRINCE is a strong choice. The big drop in class can only help this entrant today. Has put up solid Equibase Speed Figures in dirt route races in the past. He has been running quite well and the speed figures are among the best in this group. GET THROUGH - Is worth considering and may be a bet - strong Equibase Speed Figures (70 average) at today's distance and surface recently. Entrants trained by Vandenberg in dirt route races are usually reliable. BLOOMING GARDEN - Giles ought to be able to get this gelding to break out sharply for this event. Ran a solid last race.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-30-2023, 01:52 PM

Someone is slacking off in this thread!!!

**ConleyPicks** · 10-31-2023, 07:13 AM

Hey CPAW

Sorry I have been very busy with school and personal stuff recently so I haven’t had time to post on here.

I would appreciate it if you would respect this in the future next time. I’ll try my best this week to post

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-03-2023, 07:18 AM

Originally posted by ConleyPicks

Hey CPAW

Sorry I have been very busy with school and personal stuff recently so I haven’t had time to post on here.

I would appreciate it if you would respect this in the future next time. I’ll try my best this week to post

That was a joke buddy - and I did thank you!