Friday 11/3/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Harrah's Philadelphia

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

---

Race 5 - Post: 3:50 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 91 - Purse:$15300 - WINNERS OF 4 BUT NOT MORE THAN 7 EXT. PM RACES LIFETIME. AE: NON WINNERS $100,000 LIFETIME

CONSORTIUM CHOICES
	# 5 MOMENT IS HERE 2/1
# 4 JUST BET IT ALL 4/1
# 6 BELMONT ROYALE N 5/1

MOMENT IS HERE will not be denied the triumph today. Worth considering here given the ratings in the TrackMaster Speed Rating department alone. Good for a win wager just off the fantastic prior class figures. Have to like this entrant. Could most likely take this group of animals given the 94 speed rating recorded in his most recent gathering. JUST BET IT ALL - Should be considered for this race if only for the very good speed figure achieved in the last race. A really strong win percentage has been achieved by race horses beginning from the 4 post. BELMONT ROYALE N - A very nice play in here as he has one of the highest winning percentages in the field of starters as well as tremendous credentials all around.

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Freehold Raceway

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

---

Race 1 - Post: 12:30 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 70 - Purse:$4000 - FILLIES & MARES HORSES WITH A TMR OF 68.50

CONSORTIUM CHOICES
	# 2 EA MUSHU 8/5
# 3 UNNREAL 4/1
# 7 PANTY LINE 6/1

EA MUSHU will not be denied the trip to the winner's circle in this one. This race could be controlled by this filly. Just one look at the avgerage speed rating will prove that. Has a formidable shot for this one, if she can race to her back racing class. This standardbred achieved a nice speed rating in last race. Looks sharp to come right back. UNNREAL - Most definitely think these two have a good thing going. Molnar sending the horse out means a good chance to get the trip to the winner's circle. PANTY LINE - Overall figures appear very good. Can't throw out at this point.

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by TrackMaster Greg at Harrah's Philadelphia

P#	PP	HORSE NAME	M/L	DRIVER - WIN%	POINTS
RACE 7
3	3	ENERGETIC HANOVER	5/1	Ahle, Johnathan - 8	566.47
6	6	PAT MCGARRY A	4/1	Bongiorno, Joe - 18	561.11
5	5	SIMON SAYS HANOVER	3/1	Dube, Daniel - 10	556.31
4	4	BRUE HANOVER	5/2	Allard, Simon - 17	548.39
2	2	SOARING NOW	7/1	Mccarthy, Andrew - 18	541.35
1	1	DRAGONONTHEBEACH	7/1	Tetrick, Tim - 25	511.63
7	7	JILLIBY DYNAMITE A	7/1	Miller, Marcus - 7	501.25

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by TrackMaster Greg at Yonkers Raceway

P#	PP	HORSE NAME	M/L	DRIVER - WIN%	POINTS
RACE 8
4	4	MORNING HAS BROKEN	5/2	Kakaley, Matt - 18	525.05
1	1	MILIEU HANOVER	7/2	Pantaleano, Jim - 13	518.82
5	5	DRAGONS LUCKY LADY	6/1	Bartlett, Jason - 24	512.54
2	2	FADE OUT	3/1	Buter, Tyler - 12	507.45
3	3	VILLAGE JADE	9/2	Brennan, George - 16	503.00
7	7	EASY TO PLEASE	15/1	Stratton, Jordan - 13	486.56
6	6	HEAVENS SHOWGIRL A	8/1	Siegelman, Austin - 10	484.73
8	8	LOOKATMYART	20/1	Holland, Brent - 11	425.35

[ConleyPicks]

BRIAN W. SPENCER'S DAILY PICKS

---

Remington Park - Race #7

#3 Pascala	Hoping she winds up just playable if the one to her inside takes some cash, as I liked the winner of her last a little bit and think that race might be OK on the rise. Capable.
#2 Woke Joke	She's another stepping up from the $7,500 price, and she rallied with some enthusiasm in the debut try. Obvious player if she moves forward from that.
#4 Liquor Cat	She didn't show a whole lot at first asking, but she faced better that day and probably has enough upside to land a piece of this.
Race Summary	Pascala has shown a bit of versatility in her running style that might serve her well in a spot without a whole lot of good form to write home about. Spy and finish?

Remington Park - Race #8

#10 Our Davina	She had only tried turf once before outrunning her 43/1 odds last time out, so I'm going to take that at face value and give her a chance to back it up here. In the mix.
#2 Shade	She is pretty much all or nothing on the pace, and she still has some proving to do with the locals. That said, her dangerous dirt pace could be of use here if she likes the new footing.
#4 Outlining	Her baseline effort keeps her in the mix here with some really honest turf form on the page. Price probably won't be all that appealing. I'm hesitant.
Race Summary	Our Davina shortens in price after a big run last time out, but I think she seems likely enough to run right back to it.

Remington Park - Race #9

#4 My Boy Bling	There are much more likely winners in here, but I'm not that excited about a couple who figure to take some cash, and this guy goes second off the bench while turning back. Think the race flow might suit where he's going to end up.
#2 Rifey	His best form stacks up nicely here, and he has at least some presumable upside while moving into the new barn off the claim. Late runner can land this.
#1 Lamutanaaty	Anything like his best stuff would handle these, but that was also the case heading into the last one when he was a kind of flat fourth at 4/5 on the board. Yes, he can win this by five, but you can have him.
Race Summary	My Boy Bling is a bit of a reach for me in here, but there are some runners in here with pretty high ceilings who figure to take some cash, and I wonder if 'Bling might be in the right spot to overcome what appears to be a bit of an overall class deficit.

[ConleyPicks]

FRANK CARULLI'S DAILY PICKS

---

Laurel Park - Race #1

#5 ALL THE WAY (5-2)	Ran winning-type race from post 11, projects ideal trip in shorter sprint.
#7 NEVER GREW UP (8-5)	Second in 3 of first 4 starts against better, troubled fave in latest.
#6 MY ENDEAVOR (15-1)	Took debut money off solid works from the gate but didn’t factor.
Race Summary	ALL THE WAY stalked the pace 4- and 5-wide, joined the leaders for the stretch drive, won the duel but ran second to a late-running, 9-2 first-time starter. He should sit an ideal stalking trip and can reward his loyal backers in start number three. Bet to win and place and play a 5-ALL exacta.

Laurel Park - Race #2

#12 NEW YORK PANTHER (3-1)	Perfectly spotted off upset win, won 3 of last 7 starts, post the concern.
#7 JOE BRAINS (12-1)	Always in the hunt at this level, switches pilots, value remains.
#3 FUN LOVIN CRIMINAL (9-2)	Wore blinkers, got up for second behind 2-1 winner.
Race Summary	NEW YORK PANTHER is the only three-race winner in a field that is a combined 25-for-213. He comes off a 36-1 upset victory for a higher claiming tag and ran second to Bonded (5-17, $133k) in his prior grass route at Laurel Park. He draws post 12 but is worth a win and place bet nonetheless.

Laurel Park - Race #5

#5 THIS IS GOOD (6-1)	Good recovery from troubled start, good price in second go-round.
#10 JOLLY BOSS (4-1)	Took ‘command’ at 3/8ths pole, saved place spot in well-bet debut.
#1 MEDAGOOCH (8-1)	Stepped it up for final work; dam was 3-for-9 and a $56k earner.
Race Summary	THIS IS GOOD broke awkwardly, costing himself several lengths and forcing him to rush wide between rivals in a crowded field. He emerged on the scene while under a drive on the turn, but flattened out in mid-stretch. Bet to win and place.

[ConleyPicks]

“What You Need to Know” – Santa Anita
by Jeff Siegel, 1stbet.com Handicapper & Analyst

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, & Wagering Strategies identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
*
For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
*
Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play

__________________________________________________ ____________________________
RACE 1: Post: 11:30 PT Grade: A
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 4-Ultra Power
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.

Forecast: Ultra Power raced far below expectations in his debut at Del Mar when despite being well backed on the tote he wound up last of six, beaten more than 17 lengths. However, the son of Curlin produced a massive amount of improvement in his next outing at Los Alamitos when checking in four lengths clear of the rest while earning a nice speed figure in what has proven to be a productive seven furlong maiden special weight affair. From the extraordinary race mare Unique Bella, this promising 2-year-old returned to breeze five furlongs in :59 4/5 from the gate while tons best over a stablemate and giving every indication that he’ll thoroughly enjoy the stretch out in trip. Frankie picks up the mount, and in a race without much speed he should have this colt on or near the lead every step of the way. At anything near his morning line of 3-1, the Bob Baffert-trained colt in a strong win play and confident rolling exotic single.

*

RACE 2: Post: 12:05 PT Grade: A
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 5-Mirinda
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.

Forecast: Mirinda demolished a Del Mar maiden field by more than six lengths in her debut and did it easily and with plenty left. She returns in this California-bred stakes for juvenile fillies and will be a short price – and deservedly so – to take the class hike in stride. The daughter of Mitole clearly is a filly with high quality and has trained in superb fashion in the interim, so while she won’t need to improve to win she’ll probably step forward before going on to bigger and better things. She’s a logical rolling exotic single.

*

RACE 3: Post: 12:40 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): Elm Drive; 2-White Moonlight; 12-Playlist
Backups/savers/Underneath: 13-Rose Maddox.

Forecast: Elm Drive is a perfect one-for-one over the tricky Hillside Turf Course, and while she has plenty of early zip she showed in that sharp tally in the Mizdirection Stakes in May that she can be equally effective employing stalk and pounce tactics. Slightly below form in her most recent three races, she’s returning off a five week freshening with a series of sharp local workouts, and with the switch to Flavian Pratt the daughter of Mohaymen seems likely to bounce back in a big way. At 6-1 on the morning line, the Phil D’Amato-trained filly offers a good gamble. White Moonlight is a sneaky 6-year-old Godolphin mare from Europe with Timeform Ratings that make her dangerous. She had excuses when unplaced in the Oak Tree Stakes-G3 at Goodwood last time out but before that captured a pair of listed events in such a manner that makes her a “must use.” Playlist is an intriguing Eastern shipper with New York form that makes her a solid fit on this circuit at this level. She earned a powerful speed figure when second facing the boys in the Franklin-Simpson Stakes-G2 at Kentucky Derby in September and her stalking style she should be effective in this downhill slalom event.

*

RACE 4: Post: 1:15 PT Grade: A-
Main ticket (in order of preference): Private Gem
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.

Forecast: Private Gem turned in a miraculous winning performance in his debut despite a horrendous trip marked by severe traffic trouble before producing a furious late kick after finally getting clear 70 yards from the wire. The margin of victory was a desperate nose, but he was several lengths the best, and this talented 2-year-old seems likely to provide a quick dividend for trainer Mark Glatt, who appears to have made a terrific $50,000 claim with the son of Lookin At Lucky. The speed figure earned in victory matches up nicely with the others and given today’s extra distance we’re expecting him to score right back in this year’s edition of the $175,000 Golden State Juvenile Stakes. At 8-1 on the morning line (hope we get it) and with Flavian Prat picking up the mount we’ll make him a strong value play in the win pool and a single in the various rolling exotics.

*

RACE 5: Post: 2:00 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 4-Big Evs; 1-Crimson Advocate; 2-No Nay Mets; 3-Tiger Belle
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 9-Amidst Waves; 11-Slider.

Forecast: As you would expect in a Grade 1 stakes over five furlongs on grass, this year’s renewal of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint is overloaded with blazing types, perhaps none quicker than Big Evs, who demolished his rivals in the Flying Childers Stakes-G2 at Doncaster in his most recent appearance in mid-September. The Michael Appleby-trained colt was previously successful in the Molecomb Stakes-G2 at Goodwood and before that the Windsor Castle Stakes at Royal Ascot, so he’s hardly a one hit wonder. He’s also won on firm ground and should love the extremely glib grass surface at Santa Anita. However, he’d better break quickly because drawn directly inside of him, from the rail out, are Queen Mary Stakes-G1 winner Crimson Advocate, who outran 25 rivals in that early summer five furlong affair at Royal Ascot; No Nay Mets, a rocket ship who has won his last two turf sprints by daylight but against lesser foes; and Tiger Belle, who wired an excellent field in the Prix d’Arenberg at Longchamp in late August and reportedly excels over top of the ground. What happens if they all hook up early and create a pace meltdown? That’s why this race is borderline inscrutable. A spread strategy using as many as your budget allows might be the safest way to go.

*

RACE 6: Post: 2:40 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 7-Tamara
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 12-Just F Y I; 1-Candied

Forecast: Tamara wasn’t even favored in her racing debut because she had trained good but not great leading up to that race at Del Mar in mid-August. Well, she ran great. And she ran great again when winning the Del Mar Debutante-G1 the following month while earning a speed figure that should more than sufficient to solidify her status as the best in her class in this year’s renewal of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies. Two turns not only won’t be a problem, but she actually should be even better over a distance of ground (Beholder was). Drawn comfortably in the middle of the field and likely to secure an ideal second flight, talking position, the daughter of Bolt d’Oro is listed at 4/5 on the morning line and seems certain to leave as the shortest priced favorite on either of the Cup’s two day programs.

*

RACE 7: Post: 3:20 ET Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 6-Porta Fortuna; 9-Carla’s Way; 5-Content
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 3-Buchu; 11-She Feels Pretty.

Forecast: Here’s another extremely difficult race for juvenile fillies, this one over a mile on grass that brings together an international field loaded with talent. Based strictly on evaluations from video replays, the Europeans are a powerful lot, an impression that is confirmed by the always dependable Timeform Ratings. The best of the overseas gang might very well be Porto Fortuna, who delivered a career top performance when winning the prestigious Cheveley Park S.-G1 at Newmarket five weeks ago. The concern is the stretch out to a mile, a distance that you would think would be within her range, but maybe not. A winner of four of six career starts including the Albany Stakes-G3 over firm turf, the daughter of Caravaggio has been given a proper foundation to tackle a longer trip, and as we always say, if she’s ever going to handle a distance of ground, it’ll be in her first try. Carla’s Way looked quite good winning the Rockfel Stakes-G2 in Newmarket in late September over seven furlongs, and if you can win at that trip over the testing Newmarket straightway course, you certainly should be able to handle a mile at Santa Anita, the extra turn notwithstanding. For whatever it’s worth, Porto Fortuna was assigned a 97 Timeform mark while Carla’s Way achieved a 96. The third European invader we’ll toss in is the Aidan O’Brien-trained Content, who was anchored back to last in the one mile Staffordstown Stud S.-G3 at The Curragh in her most recent start and then when given her head cut loose with an impressive turn of foot to win going away like a high class filly. She had previously been allowed to barrel off on the front end but the change in tactics made all the difference and points her out as a legitimate off-the-pace threat at 15-1 on the morning line.

*

RACE 8: Post: 4:00 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 6-Locked; 9-Fierceness; 4-Timberlake.
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 2-Prince of Monaco; 10-Muth; 3-Wine Me Up.

Forecast: Here’s yet another challenging affair, the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, a wide open affair in which a legitimate case can be made for at least a half dozen entrants, and maybe more. Two year old’s this time of the year are in different stages of development, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see one or more produce a huge leap. Locked overcame an extremely wide trip to register a highly impressive (and highly rated) victory in the Breeders’ Futurity-G1 at Keeneland four weeks ago in a performance that verified the favorable impression he made when graduating at Saratoga the previous month. Taken at face value, this effort was the best we’ve seen in the division, but it obviously was taxing, and we have to wonder if it chips away at the conditioning of the Gun Runner colt from Todd Pletcher’s barn. Stable mate Fierceness missed the break in the Champagne, rushed up prematurely, and then was spent and eased through the lane in a race that is a complete toss pout. Prior to that outing, the City of Light colt turned heads in his 10 length debut maiden romp while earning a number that is as good as anything in this race. Timberlake certainly was pleasing in his Champagne Stakes-G1 romp, but that race came over a sloppy surface, so it’s possible the wet track moved him up (we think not, this colt is plain good). Then you have the Baffert trio of Prince of Monaco, Muth, and Wine Me Up, who have the benefit of the home track advantage. All three have a right to win based on several positive factors in their respective past performance charts.

*

RACE 9: Post: 4:40 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 2-River Tiber
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 8-Unquestionable; 9-Endlessly; 14-Carson’s Run

Forecast: Okay, finally, an easy one (no, not really). The Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf-G1 is similar to the fillies race in that it contains strong representation from Europe, topped by River Tiber, never off the board in five starts on a resume that includes three wins, powerful Timeform Ratings, and a significant score at Royal Ascot in the 20-runner Coventry Stakes during in the summer. Third in a subsequent pair of Group 1 affairs but losing nothing in defeat in either one, the Aidan O’Brien-trained colt stretches out from six furlongs to a mile, but we seriously doubt he’ll have any issue with the extra distance and the additional turn. From his comfortable inside draw, the Irish-bred colt should inherit an ideal stalking, ground saving early position and then have every chance from there. For those seeking a rolling exotic single on an otherwise extremely challenging Friday card, he’s a viable candidate to fill the role.

*

RACE 10: Post: 5:10 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): Ghost of Midnight
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 4-Bus Buzz; 3-Hejazi

Forecast: Ghost of Midnight was cut out to be a stakes quality runner but various setbacks delayed his career until age five at Del Mar, where he debuted in a bottom rung maiden $20,000 claimer that he won for fun (and, luckily for his connections, wasn’t claimed). Protected in starter’s allowance company in his next start, the son of Ghostzapper was even more impressive while earning a speed figure 14 points better than the one his debut was assigned. He’ll need another forward move to remain unbeaten in this first level allowance sprint, but we think he’ll be up to it. The Mark Glatt-trained gelding continues to impress in the morning and projects to settle somewhere in mid pack behind what should be quick early fractions and then take hold when given his cue at the head of the lane. He’s 4-1 on the morning line and we’ll take that if we can get it.

[ConleyPicks]

GEORGE ORTUZAR

Santa Anita 11-3-2023I have my preliminary selections here where we will use Thorograph (TG) Numbersand Data as the main criterion for our analysis.

Race 1 5 – 8 – 1#5 Go With Gusto – And so it begins! A two-day spectacular of the best the worldhas to offer in Thoroughbred racing. Let’s get right into it. This filly is one of twotrying the boys in here and boy has she looked good in her two lifetime starts. Theboys will have a tough time beating her. #8 Asean – This first race is not a BCrace, but it has an overseas runner in it, and he sure looks solid as many of theseimports do. Afterall, these runners are here for a reason not the season. This onehas done good work overseas and will be a threat. #1 Ace of Clubs – Looks likethe best of the USA contingent.

Race 2 5 – 11 – 7 Best Bet of the Day#5 Mirinda – Wow! What a performance by this filly on debut. A repeat of thatrace would blow this field away. No reason to expect her to repeat that race, in factI think she has every right to get better. Watch Out! Let’s make her my best bet ofthe day. #11 Crazy Hot – All 4 of her starts were wonderful. Two wins and twothirds with three of those races in Stakes company. A must use. #7 Grand SlamSmile – Has won 2 of her 3 races and ran 2nd in the other. Another good looker.

Race 3 12 – 2 – 4#12 Playlist – Ward is tremendous with youngsters like this. He goes to Johnny Vto ride this filly with some of the best TG numbers in the race. #2 WhiteMoonlight – Invades here from GB with topflight connections. She has won two ofher last 3 races and deserves to be one of the favorites. #4 Elm Drive – She has atouch of class and plenty of early speed which is always dangerous.

Race 4 10 – 6 – 1#10 Last Call London – Dr. No No will probably be the favorite in here. But Ithink he can be beat. This guy was only half a length behind the Dr. He now is afirst time gelding which usually helps a runner concentrate on racing. I expect bigtime improvement. #6 Private Gem – His lone race was against easier MCLers.But he did win that race. He was claimed out of that race by a trainer that has beenon fire of late. He wins with about 20% of his new acquisitions and I expect him toimprove this runner into a major contender here. #1 Dr. No No – He is looking forthe hat trick and is looking good. But let’s try to beat him for the win.

Race 5 1 – 4 – 2#1 Crimson Advocate – OK this is the first of the BC races. It is 5f on the grass.They thought enough of this gal to ship her all the way to GB after her big win inthe Royal Palm. They were right as she went out there and won that big Grade II.She is back in the states and is now ready to win her first Grace I. I advocate heras my top pick. #4 Big Evs – Brought over here by one of the great trainers of ourtime having won 3 of her 5 races and 2 of them in Grade III races. Very dangerousin here. #2 No Nay Mets – Not sure what happened in the Norfolk where he camein 9th, but he is undefeated in his other three races. He is a major threat here.

Race 6 7 – 1 - 12 – 9 Best Bet of the Day II#7 Tamara – This is my best bet of the day and probably the MOST probablewinner of the weekend. She has looked spectacular winning her two races withoverwhelming ease. She truly can be any kind. Sit back and enjoy a current andfuture superstar of our sport. #1 Candied – She too is undefeated in two startsand has a win going two turns that Tamara does not have. She looks like Tamara’sbiggest competition. #12 Just F Y I – And yes, this filly is also 2 for 2. #9Brightwork – Do not leave this girl out of your exotics. Sure she was beaten lasttime out by a couple in here. But I think she is better than her last and she will be aprice. What a race – what a day – what a weekend!

Race 7 6 – 9 – 11#6 Porta Fortuna – She reeled off three consecutive wins to start out her career.Her last race was a win, and she earned an “8” in that race. That represents thebest last race TG number. #9 Carla’s Way – She too just ran an “8”. I think oneof these two imports will win. #11 She Feels Pretty – She is undefeated andimproved second time out. If she improves again, she will make some noise here.

Race 8 9 – 2 – 10#9 Fierceness – Even though his last race was horrible and Irad has abandonedhim for Noted. I cannot get that first race out of my head. I saw that race live andit was incredibly impressive. He blew away a field that had numerous come backwinners. It looks like he will be a nice price as he is 6-1 on the Morning Line. I lovethis colt today. I will be singling him in every multi-race bet. #2 Prince of Monaco– Baffert trains this one and he is undefeated in 3 starts. That race two back earneda “2” which is the best that any of these have ever earned. If she takes to twoturns he could be king! #10 Muth – He has looked stellar with his only loss toPrince of Monaco. Baffert is no joke on these big days.

Race 9 8 – 2 – 9#8 Unquestionable – This is our last BC race of the day. Two imports look best. Iwill give this one a slight edge as he just ran a “7” on the TG which is best. #2River Tiber – Just ran an “8” over in GB. A clear and present danger. #9Endlessly – This is an undefeated colt that has gotten better and better with eachand every race. He looks best of the Americans.

Race 10 2 – 3 – 4#2 Ghost of Midnight – He improved leaps and bounds from the first race to thesecond. If he does not “bounce” off of that race, then he probably will be taking hispicture after the race. #3 Hejazi – He has always shown great promise. He justhasn’t developed that shine of greatness. But he fits here and can’t be ignored. #4Bus Buzz – He is super fast. Catch him to win. Well I hope you had a great dayand let’s do it again tomorrow for the main event of the Breeders’ Cup !

[ConleyPicks]

THE PICK 4 MATRIX
featuring the Santa Anita Late P4
By Frank R. Scatoni

https://www.frankscatoni.com

(follow on Twitter @ScatoniSureShot and also visit @OptixEQ)
11/3/2023
NOTE: Because this analysis is posted in advance, always check my Twitter feed
@ScatoniSureShot for real-time updates based on scratches and track conditions—as this
analysis is written for surfaces that are fast and firm. For more information about all of my
work, please visit: www.frankscatoni.com. Thanks!
INTRO:
Unless you’ve been living under a rock, you know that today kicks off the first day of Breeders’
Cup weekend at Santa Anita Park. It’s a day for the juveniles, so we get to see some future
stars. Of course, big fields and such good horses make for a tough Late Pick 4—but let’s see
what we can do.


SA LATE P4 LEG 1 (SA R7):
We begin today’s sequence with a very competitive $1 million Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies
Turf (G1) for 2-year-old ladies going one mile on the lawn with the rails at zero feet.
#1 BUTTERCREAM BABE (30/1) ran a good second in the local prep for this event, but
I’m not sure how that field stacks up against the best in the world. I do like that she’s tactical
and draws the rail, but she’ll have to use some speed to get position, and that will likely soften
her up late. GRADE: X.
#2 FLATTERY (20/1) has a very strong late kick, so it’s no surprise that she won two in a
row at Del Mar to start her career, but she could only manage third last time against a few of
these while racing over the Santa Anita sod, which is pretty tough on stretch runners. I think
there is ability here, and maybe she can round out the super, but she needs a big step forward
against the best in here. GRADE: X.
#3 BUCHU (6/1) was impressive when winning the Jessamine (G2), coming from the
clouds and blasting home to get the W. It was a very nice effort, but do note that it came at 8.5-
furlongs, so we’ll see if she has the same kick today going a mile. Two back, she was a little
more tactical, and I think she’ll have to be tactical today. Maybe more for underneath. GRADE:
C.
#4 LAULNE (FR) (15/1) has very good French form, but do note that Les Pavots (Ire) has
her on form. That said, that race was on heavy ground, and this gal seems to prefer firmer
ground, as is evidenced by her three wins. It’s interesting that she ends up in the Phil D’Amato
barn, and he’s typically good with imports. I think she can certainly compete for a slice, but she
will need to do a little bit better for the W. GRADE: B.
#5 CONTENT (IRE) (15/1) stepped up with a very nice win in a Group 3 last time at a very
big price. Can this Aidan O’Brien trainee do it again? The best jock in the world is enticed to
ride, and that’s enough for me to take notice. I also like that the best race of her life came last
time when she tried a mile for the first time. I think there are some better horses in here, but
she’s worthy of inclusion at a big price. GRADE: B.
#6 PORTA FORTUNA (IRE) (5/1) exits a Group 1 where she did the business against 10
other horses. I love that she has acted really well on good to firm ground overseas, meaning she
should adapt very well over here. She has had a tough campaign, however, so it’s possible that
she’s over the top, but she needs to be on some of your tickets. GRADE: B.
#7 GALA BRAND (12/1) just lost to a few of these, but she had some traffic issues,
mostly because she likes to come from way off the pace. She’s going to need some luck with
pace and traffic issues here, but maybe she can run on late for a small slice. GRADE: C.
#8 LIFE’S AN AUDIBLE (15/1) just missed in the Miss Grillo (G2) last time, trying to
overcome a slow pace, but she couldn’t quite get there. I think she’ll appreciate a slight cutback
to a mile today after that 8.5-furlong race, because she showed a nice turn of foot in a 5.5-
furlong sprint to break her maiden. That said, she seems better for underneath. GRADE: C.
#9 CARLA’S WAY (IRE) (6/1) has a defeat to Porta Fortuna (Ire), but that gal stayed in
training while this one was freshened up and now makes the third start of her form cycle. I liked
her Group 2 win on good to firm ground, so she will probably like the Santa Anita course,
making her interesting in here. GRADE: A.
#10 AUSTERE (12/1) has won two in a row, but she had perfect trips, and I’m not sure
she was facing much. I do like that she’s tactical, so she should be forwardly placed, but she’s
probably looking at a wide stalking journey, and that’s not the kind of trip that wins turf races.
GRADE: X.
#11 SHE FEELS PRETTY (4/1) is a very nice gal, but she will have to overcome a tough
outside post and work out a trip. She looked terrific when winning the Natalma (G1) in just her
second career start, and that race has been a reliable prep for this event. She came home in
:23.31 seconds last time, and that’s the sign of a quality animal. GRADE: A.
#12 HARD TO JUSTIFY (6/1) is another one who will have to work out a trip from out
here, but she seems pretty tactical, so at least Prat will have some options. She’s a perfect 2-
for-2, and Chad Brown knows what to do with a good horse like this one. She gives hope to the
Americans. GRADE: A.
#13 DREAMFYRE (15/1) only knows one way to go, so sit back and watch her run as fast
as she can for as far as she can. I liked her to do that last time in the Surfer Girl (G3) here, and
she did not disappoint. This, however, is a whole other kettle of fish. GRADE: X.
#14 LES PAVOTS (IRE) (8/1) has a solid late kick, and she could certainly win, but note
that her best work overseas has come with cut in the ground, so we’ll see how she handles a
firm turf course. She’ll also have to overcome a tough post. Expect her on the scene late.
GRADE: B.
#15 GO WITH GUSTO (15/1) (AE) is a little interesting if she gets in, since she’s been
racing against the boys and doing pretty darn good. She’ll now face fillies for the first time, so
she’s getting class-relief in some way! Don’t sell her too short, but she will need to work out a
trip, which is why I’m not more bullish on her. GRADE: C.
#16 MO FOX GIVIN (30/1) (AE) switches barns, and Powell is pretty good with his new
acquisitions—but this gal, as good as her two races were, seems a bit outclassed against these.
GRADE: X.


SA LATE P4 LEG 2 (SA R8):
Today’s second leg is an excellent renewal of the $2 million Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1), an 8.5-
furlong main-track affair for the best sophomores in the world. Of course, Baffert and Pletcher
have multiple entries, as to be expected, but the race isn’t only about those guys!
#1 THE WINE STEWARD (8/1) was game in defeat last time when stretching out for the
first time. He lost to Locked, who had a tougher trip, so he’ll have to make up lengths on that
top contender, but I expect a move forward today for this shockingly good New York–bred.
GRADE: B.
#2 PRINCE OF MONACO (4/1) is the best of the three Bafferts, in my humble opinion.
He’s undefeated. Prat bothered to come out to California to win both of his stakes races this
summer—and after his victory in the Del Mar Futurity (G1), Baffert put him through the ropes
to train up to this race. He’s never been two turns, but sky’s the limit for this one if he can
handle the distance. GRADE: A.
#3 WINE ME UP (15/1), the second Baffert, looked like a target for Muth last time when
they squared off in the American Pharoah (G1). His stablemate beat him easily, so this guy will
need a massive step forward today. In his defense, however, it was only his second start, so
improvement is in the cards. Will it be enough? I’m not so sure. GRADE: X.
#4 TIMBERLAKE (4/1) looked very good when winning the Champagne (G1) at “BAqueduct,” but he did catch a sloppy/sealed track, so we’ll see if he can take his game to the
hard California dirt. He does have form over a fast main track, so I’m not too worried. Is he
good enough to beat the Bafferts and the Pletchers? He might be. GRADE: A.
#5 ECORO NEO (30/1) is still a maiden, but this Japanese invader came on with a furious
late run last time to just miss in a 6-furlong sprint. They debuted him long on turf, so I don’t
think distance will be an issue at all—it’s just a matter of where he fits class-wise against a very
talented U.S. contingent. I’ll watch one. GRADE: X.
#6 LOCKED (7/2) looks loaded in here. I don’t think Pletcher was close to getting to the
bottom of this guy last time, yet he still easily wore down a game The Wine Steward in the
Breeders’ Futurity (G1) at this 8.5-furlong distance. A handicapper I have tremendous respect
for thinks he’s the best 2-year-old in the country. He might be right. GRADE: A.
#7 CUBAN THUNDER (IRE) (30/1) has been box-cars in all of his races versus winners
overseas, including races on both turf and synth. This seems like an ambitious spot for a horse
who is bred top and bottom to run on the lawn. I’ll watch one. GRADE: X.
#8 GENERAL PARTNER (8/1) is a speedy type who was easily outfinished last time by
Timberlake in the Champagne (G1). Granted, the track was off that day, so maybe this one can
do better today getting back on firm dirt. His maiden-breaker two back was visually impressive,
but he got a loose lead on a speed-favoring track, so I’m going to take that with a grain of salt.
GRADE: X.
#9 FIERCENESS (6/1) has never been on a fast dirt track, but he was certainly a buzz
horse when he was sent off in his debut at 11/10. He destroyed that group, prompting Pletcher
to try him in the Champagne (G1), but he had a rough beginning and never really got untracked.
There is ability here, but do note that Irad Ortiz defected to another. GRADE: X.
#10 MUTH (4/1), the third and final Baffert, was poised to win the American Pharoah
(G1) last time, so I’m a little hesitant to get on board today. Of course, he can win, being trained
by one of the best, but I prefer others more. GRADE: C.
#11 NOTED (20/1), the third Pletcher, is a perfect 4-for-4 in the money, with wins on dirt
and turf, so he’s extremely versatile. The issue is he looks a bit too slow. It’s encouraging that
Irad Ortiz chooses this one over Fierceness, but I’m doubtful this guy is fast enough to get the
W. GRADE: X.


SA LATE P4 LEG 3 (SA R9):
Today’s third leg is another competitive Breeders’ Cup race, this one being the Juvenile Turf
(G1), a one-mile turf affair with the rails set at zero feet.
#1 AIR RECRUIT (20/1) has done fine work in his three-race career, but I’m not sure how
good that mid-Atlantic form is. GRADE: X.
#2 RIVER TIBER (IRE) (3/1) has been facing the best of Europe, exiting two Group races.
Unlike typical Aidan O’Brien runners who often come here over the top (but with stellar form),
this one should be ready for a big step forward, making the third start of his form cycle. GRADE:
A.
#3 TOK TOK (20/1) finished up nicely in the Bourbon (G2) despite some traffic issues, so
perhaps that’s why Motion will add blinkers today to try and get this guy involved earlier. He
has improved in every race, so it wouldn’t shock me if he fired big one today with the
equipment change, but I think the minor awards are his ceiling. GRADE: C.
#4 CAN GROUP (12/1) won the aforementioned Bourbon (G2) with a strong late kick and
a perfectly timed ride. His finishing ability is not to be questioned, but it does mean he’ll need
some help up front. At least he gets Prat to do the steering. GRADE: B.
#5 MY BOY PRINCE (8/1) only knows one way to go, and that’s to the lead. If he wires
this field, I’ll tip my cap. GRADE: X.
#6 STAY HOT (20/1) tried turf for the first time, and he came on with a strong late rally
to break his maiden for the white-hot Eurton. That was a nice race, and I respect his final
quarter mile time, which suggests a horse who can keep moving forward, but this is a whole
other ballgame. GRADE: C.
#7 AGATE ROAD (8/1) is a steadily improving youngster who has finished up well despite
wide trips. I’m not sure if the cutback to a mile will help his cause, since his two wins came
going longer, but he’s done nothing wrong since getting on turf. GRADE: C.
#8 UNQUESTIONABLE (FR) (4/1), the second O’Brien runner, has just one win, but he
has very good form against some tough Group 1 animals, so he’s not impossible here. Moore
sides with the stablemate, to no one’s surprise, but Dettori takes the call, so….GRADE: A.
#9 ENDLESSLY (5/1) is undefeated in three starts, and he has a win over this course, so
it’s tough to say anything negative about him. The worst I can say is that he hasn’t been facing
the toughest animals in the world, so he’ll get a class test today. I think 5/1 is a little short, to be
honest. GRADE: C.
#10 FULMINEO (20/1) has a nice late kick, and even though he lost to Agate Road last
time, he was running on despite having some trouble. He can turn the tables on that foe, but is
he good enough to win? We shall see, but I’ve seen a lot worse 20/1 shots than this guy.
GRADE: C.
#11 LIAM’S JOURNEY (30/1) is still a maiden, so if he wins, I lose. GRADE: X.
#12 MOUNTAIN BEAR (IRE) (12/1), another O’Brien trainee, just won a listed stakes
overseas on synth, so he’s not as flashy as his stablemates—plus, he draws a bum post. GRADE:
C.
#13 GRAND MO THE FIRST (20/1) ran on late to finish third in the local prep here, but
I’m not sure that race will end up being all that strong in a field filled with some really nice turf
horses. He can build off that race, but will it be enough? GRADE: X.
#14 CARSON’S RUN (6/1) drew a bum post, but he has the look of a contender based on
his solid three-race career. I’m partial to the Woodbine preps for these juvenile turf races (for
both sexes), and this guy was solid when winning the Summer (G1) there. He’ll have to angle
over and make one run—and need a lot of luck—so demand value. I’d like him a lot more with a
better post. GRADE: B.


SA LATE P4 LEG 4 (SA R10):
We end the Santa Anita card with a $50K optional-claiming/N1X contested at 6-furlongs on the
main track.
#1 THIRSTY JOHN (12/1) has speed, and he’ll have to use it while breaking from the rail.
Note he won the Cal Cup Derby, so he has a whiff of class, but I think he’ll be compromised in
this spot, facing elders for the first time. GRADE: C.
#2 GHOST OF MIDNIGHT (4/1) has won two in a row stylishly, but he’s been facing way
lesser company. Is he good enough to step up and beat allowance foes? I honestly don’t know,
but it’s nice to see a 5-year-old reward his owners after taking such a long time to get to the
races. I think Glatt feels like he snuck one by the goalie when this guy debuted for $20K as a 5-
year-old. GRADE: B.
#3 HEJAZI (7/5) has run some monster speed figures, and he has form against some
really good 3-year-olds. On paper, he’s the one to beat, as I’m sure Baffert will have him
breathing fire off the April layoff. Imagine running a 100 Beyer Speed Figure as a 2-year-old and
losing! He finished second that September 2022 day, losing to his stablemate Speed Boat
Beach, who just so happens to be 3/1 on the morning-line in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint (G1) on
Saturday. GRADE: A.
#4 BUS BUZZ (9/5) is one fast S.O.B. All of his best races have come on the engine, so
he’ll probably clear early, and then we’ll see if he can stick around late. Last time, he got run
down, but that was at 6.5-furlongs. He shortens up a smidge today, so that should help his
cause. I think this Cal-bred will get run down late, but I’m excited to see him throw it down.
GRADE: B.
#5 MAN CHILD (12/1) has been facing some really tough horses, and he hasn’t been
totally disgraced—but I can’t ignore the fact that he broke his maiden loose on the lead at Los
Al in his debut, and he hasn’t won since. He’s not getting the lead today. GRADE: X.
#6 ELECTOR (6/1) is coming off a year-plus layoff for Sadler, who used to stink with
horses like this, but he’s gotten so much better the last few years. Note that this guy is in for
the $50K tag because he cleared this hurdle back in 2022. I really wanted to make him my wise-
guy play because Irad shows up to ride, but this guy also likes to be forwardly placed, and I’m
having a hard time seeing him keep up with Bus Buzz and then outkick Hejazi. GRADE: C.
#7 FEROCIOUSLY (20/1) is in an impossible spot. He just beat conditional claimers in wire
fashion, and there’s no way he’s making the lead today. If he wins, it will be the biggest upset
on the entire card. I’m dead-set against, but I will say this: I do like that Moger protected him as
a waive-claim last time, and he won, and now he protects him again (albeit against much better
animals). GRADE: X.

P4 Ticket 1: 9,11,12/2,4,6/2,8/3/
P4 Ticket 2: 4,5,6,14/1/4,14/2,4
P4 Ticket 3: 3,7,8,15/10/3,6,7,9,10,12/1,6

[ConleyPicks]

SANTA ANITA
Expert Analysis
By Brad Free
BEST BET: Elm Drive (3rd race)
First Race
1. Go With Gusto 2. Asean 3. Ultra Power
Breeders' Cup Friday, first post 11:30 a.m. Grade 1-placed ~GO WITH GUSTO^ is the choce in this $150k turf mile stakes for juveniles, based on her two starts at Woodbine. She
followed her sharp maiden win with a third-place finish in the G1 Summer, from which the runner-up returned to win a stakes. 'GUSTO can sit, wait, and blast home for the win.
~ASEAN^ is a stakes-winning import returning to firm ground after misfiring in a G3 on "yielding." This is her first start around a turn, she will rally late. ~ULTRA POWER^ looks
like the speed of the field off his last-out maiden sprint win. If the Curlin-Unique Bella gray handles turf, he could be gone. MO FOX GIVIN finished more than four lengths clear of
third last out in an allowance turf mile in Kentucky.

Second Race
1. Mirinda 2. Grand Slam Smile 3. Crazy Hot
Debut winner ~MIRINDA^ and stakes winner ~GRAND SLAM SMILE^ top this stakes for Cal-bred juvenile fillies; MIRINDA is the one to beat. She dazzled by more than six
lengths with an 82 Beyer that towers over these. Her lack of seasoning is not a major concern. This state-bred stakes was won the last two years by second-time starters who scored
impressive debut wins. MIRINDA has the same pattern. The challenge is she faces more speed. GRAND SLAM SMILE returns from a three-month break after a solid three-start
summer campaign. She won her debut at Golden Gate, a stakes at Santa Anita, and finished second in a Cal-bred stakes at Del Mar. Sharp workouts for her comeback suggest she
is ready to fire. The top pair both stretch from five and one-half furlongs, to seven. Last-out stakes winner ~CRAZY HOT^ drew comfortably outside where she can press the pace,
while longshot PUTT FOR DOUGH goes route to sprint in a race that could unfold at a quick pace. 'DOUGH will rally at long odds.

Third Race
1. Elm Drive 2. Unbridled Mary 3. White Moonlight
Front-running hillside stakes winner ~ELM DRIVE^ has a tactical advantage over late-running horse-for-course ~UNBRIDLED MARY^ in this filly-mare hillside stakes. ELM
DRIVE faces a softer pace scenario than the G3 dirt sprint she got chewed up in last time; she could get an easy-pace trip similar to the trip that produced her hillside stakes victory
in spring. UNBRIDLED MARY will rally late while shortening from a third-place finish at a mile. Best as a closing sprinter, 'MARY is 2-for-4 on the hill. ~WHITE MOONLIGHT^
won a pair of stakes in summer in England; this is her U.S. debut. FREEDOM FLYER also is a horse to course, having won a hillside stakes in February, and an allowance last fall.

Fourth Race
1. Magic Spoon 2. Last Call London 3. Private Gem
Favorites are 6-for-9 in this Cal-bred juvenile sprint stakes since it was shortened to seven furlongs, but this year's favorite is not easily identified. Debut winner ~MAGIC SPOON^
can post an upset. He overcome a slow start from the rail, and early trouble, to win his debut going away. Although he benefitted from a pace collapse, he is believed to have more
speed than he showed. The manner he finished at six furlongs suggests seven is fine. ~LAST CALL LONDON^, stakes-placed twice this summer at Del Mar, makes his first start in
two months and first since he was gelded. The versatile 2yo runs as if he will relish seven furlongs. ~PRIVATE GEM^ looms an upset candidate. He won his $50k maiden-claiming
debut rallying from behind despite trouble, and his pedigree suggests the stretch-out from five and a half furlongs to seven will benefit. Big jump up in class first off the claim, but he
will be finishing. DR. NO NO won his last two starts including a stakes, but after breaking from the outside post all three starts, now he is buried on the rail.

Fifth Race
1. Big Evs 2. Crimson Advocate 3. Committee of One
The blinding speed demonstrated by England-based ~BIG EVS^ suggests the three-time Group winner can win the BC Juvenile Turf Sprint. 'EVS also is game, as he showed three
starts back. He was virtually headed in deep stretch, fought back inside, and refused to lose. The BC was mentioned as a possibility way back in August, and after his G2 runaway
in mid-September, he has arrived. BIG EVS is drawn outside his main pace rival. That is U.S.-based front-runner ~CRIMSON ADVOCATE^, who shipped to England early this
year and upset a G2 against a good field. The runner-up subsequently won a G2, the third-place finisher won a listed race two starts later, the fourth-place finisher later won a G3.
'ADVOCATE is quick; she set the pace both turf starts. It has been more than four months since her last start, but her work pattern is solid. She cannot make any mistakes from the
inside post. It is all or nothing. If a pace duel compromises the top pair, late-closing ~COMMITTEE OF ONE^ must be reckoned with. He beat a good stakes-winning rival last time
rallying from the back. That could be the trip he gets here. The past two years at Santa Anita, only a handful of rails-down five-furlong turf sprints have been run: 4 of the 7 were won
from the back half of the field. It's not easy, because a closer must still negotiate traffic, but it can be done. NO NAY METS is speed, like the top pair. She beat good fields her last
two starts, both races produced multiple winners including next-out stakes winners from each.

Sixth Race
1. Tamara 2. Candied 3. Scalable
The fast-pace G1 victory by ~TAMARA^ in the seven-furlong Del Mar Debutante stamps her a proper favorite in the BC Juvenile Fillies, a race her dam Beholder won in 2012.
Though TAMARA has not raced in eight weeks, she is the fastest on numbers (91 Beyer), and her DMR Debutante win was validated when the fourth-place finisher returned to win
a G2. As long as she avoids a duel, TAMARA could be gone at underlay odds. Lightly raced G1 winner ~CANDIED^ has something the favorite lacks. That is, experience around
two turns. CANDIED followed her debut sprint victory with a rally-wide win in the Alcibiades at Keeneland despite racing on her wrong lead to the wire. The runner-up finished
nearly six lengths clear of third. CANDIED is the most likely to upset the locally based favorite. ~SCALABLE^ rallied from behind a slow pace to finish second in a better-thanlooked effort in a G2 route. She is a maiden running in a race never won by a maiden, but if she gets pace to run at, she could upset. CHATALAS got loose on easy splits and wired a
G2 route. Proven long, she might be underrated.

Seventh Race
1. She Feels Pretty 2. Hard to Justify 3. Porta Fortuna
A dominating victory in the G1 Natalma over a deep Woodbine field stamps ~SHE FEELS PRETTY^ the choice in the BC Juvenile Fillies Turf. Her win by more than four lengths,
with a strong :23.31 quarter, was at the expense of a stellar field. Five she defeated returned to win their next start including three stakes. 'PRETTY will make just the third start,
which is standard. Six of the last nine JFT winners, eight of 14 overall, were making their third start. ~HARD TO JUSTIFY^ scored a game victory in the G2 Miss Grillo, a race
that produced more JFT winners (five) than any prep. 'JUSTIFY has much to prove moving up in class after her half-length win over a modest field, but her trainer won this race a
record five times, many with the same two-race pattern as the top selections: maiden race, stakes, JFT. ~PORTA FORTUNA^ leads the European contingent; her G1 victory last out
was already her third Group victory. The win by 'FORTUNA was in the same race 2022 JFT winner Meditate exited, with virtually the same Timeform Rating (Porta Fortuna, 97;
Meditate, 98). European G2 winner CARLA'S WAY hits this in peak form with an upward cycle. Each start better than the start before as the distances increase.

Eighth Race
1. Muth 2. Prince of Monaco 3. Wine Me Up
Three SoCal stablemates with speed get top billing in the BC Juvenile. None is a certainty vs. top G1 winners from Kentucky and New York, while a longshot maiden from Japan
might be worth a stab. Looks like a good field. ~MUTH^, G1 winner at Santa Anita around two turns, has improved each successive start. He showed a new dimension in his
route win; he tucked inside just off the pace, rated behind the speed, and dominated. Not sure what was behind him, but the $2 million colt is good and getting better. The 3-for-3
graded winner ~PRINCE OF MONACO^ stretches to two turns. He was less impressive winning the G1 DMR Futurity than two back in the G3 Best Pal, but 'MONACO has had
two months to crank up again and prepare for this route. He handled MUTH easily their only meeting. ~WINE ME UP^ is a candidate to set the pace, which he has in both starts
including a runner-up finish behind MUTH in just the second start of his career. Come and catch him. ECORO NEO is the maiden from Japan who could be the longest shot in the
field. He finished next-to-last in his debut on turf, then moved to dirt second out and unleashed a devastating late kick to miss by a half-length. He appeared to make up about a dozen
lengths the final furlong. The quality of the field he ran against is uncertain, but his rally was eye-catching, and it says something the maiden ships from Japan to take a shot. Bombs
away? LOCKED won a G1 route at KEE with a big number; TIMBERLAKE likewise won a G1 although the track was wet and the race was just one turn.

Ninth Race
1. River Tiber 2. Unquestionable 3. Mountain Bear
~RIVER TIBER^ and ~UNQUESTIONABLE^, G1-caliber European imports from the deep stable of trainer Aidan O'Brien, top the BC Juvenile Turf. The trainer's 21 JT starters
produced five wins, five seconds. All his winners were ridden by Ryan Moore, who apparently had his pick between the two O'Brien runners. Moore rode both throughout the season
and sticks with RIVER TIBER, third in a pair of G1s following a summer G2 win. 'TIBER might be the class of this field though this is his first start in a race with a turn. This mile
race also is his first beyond six furlongs, and the G1 race he exits has never produced a JT winner. But the colt has proven class and his connections are too effective to second-guess.
A second runner from the stable is UNQUESTIONABLE, whose rider is Frankie Dettori. The colt missed by only a length last out in a G1. ~MOUNTAIN BEAR^, the third JT
entant from the same stable, lacks the achievements of his stablemates. But his Timeform Ratings have gone up as the season unfolded, and he is not short on seasoning. The G2-
placed juvenile is making his eighth start. MY BOY PRINCE looms the upsetter. His front-running style could play well in a field that seems a bit light on speed. All he has done is
finish one-two all five starts including a G1 runner-up.

Tenth Race
1. Bus Buzz 2. Hejazi 3. Ghost of Midnight
The speed of the field, Cal-bred stakes winner ~BUS BUZZ^ shortens to six furlongs after a fast-pace runner-up finish at six and a half. He can open up, and be gone. G1-placed
~HEJAZI^ returns from a seven-month layoff with a solid work pattern and history of running well fresh. ~GHOST OF MIDNIGHT^ crushed restricted maidens with a big number.
He fits in this N1X.

[ConleyPicks]

SANTA ANITA RACING DUDES PICKS

1	#6 MO FOX GIVIN	6-1	L Powell	F Prat
2	#5 MIRINDA	8-5	G Mandella	M E Smith
3	#12 PLAYLIST	4-1	W A Ward	J R Velazquez
4	#10 LAST CALL LONDON	4-1	P Miller	J J Hernandez
5	#12 COMMITTEE OF ONE	8-1	S M Asmussen	C A Torres
6	#7 TAMARA	4-5	R E Mandella	M E Smith
7	#9 CARLA'S WAY	6-1	S Crisford	J Doyle
8	#4 TIMBERLAKE	4-1	B H Cox	F Geroux
9	#2 RIVER TIBER	3-1	A P O'Brien	R L Moore
10	#3 HEJAZI	7-5	B Baffert	J J Hernandez

[ConleyPicks]

GUARANTEED PICKS SANTA ANITA PICKS

1	4-1	1	Ace of Clubs	PENDING
2	8-5	5	Mirinda	PENDING
3	4-1	12	Playlist	PENDING
4	6-1	11	Magic Spoon	PENDING
5	4-1	1	Crimson Advocate	PENDING
6	4-5	7	Tamara	PENDING
7	8-1	14	Les Pavots	PENDING
8	4-1	10	Muth	PENDING
9	3-1	2	River Tiber	PENDING
10	4-1	2	Ghost of Midnight	PENDING

[ConleyPicks]

Santa Anita Park Friday, November 3, 2023

PG

PP

Horse

WP

Jockey

WP

Trainer

Pace

ML

1	Qatar Golden Mile Stakes; 1 Mile; turf; 8 runners; purse $150000

5	5		Go With Gusto		Rosario		Casse	R	5/2
8	8		Asean		Gaffalione		O'brien	-	4
1	1		Ace Of Clubs		Fresu		O'neill	R	4

2	Golden State Juvenile Fillies Stakes; 7 Furlongs; filles; 11 runners; purse $175000

7	7		Grand Slam Smile		Alvarado		Specht	E	5/2
11	11		Crazy Hot		Velazquez		Bonde	E	5
5	5		Mirinda		Smith		Mandella	F	8/5

3	Senator Ken Maddy Stakes; 6 1/2 Furlongs; turf; fillies and mares; 13 runners; purse $150000

2	2		White Moonlight		Murphy		Bin	-	3
13	13		Rose Maddox		Pereira		Miyadi	R	8
10	10		Brandon'smylawyer		Rosario		Eurton	E	10

4	Golden State Juvenile Stakes; 7 Furlongs; 12 runners; purse $175000

10	10		Last Call London		Hernandez		Miller	M	4
1	1		Dr. No No		Vazquez		Koriner	E	7/2
12	12		Mici's Express		Rosario		Knapp	R	5

5	Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint; 5 Furlongs; turf; filles; 15 runners; purse $1000000

4	4		Big Evs		Marquand		Appleby	-	3
1	1		Crimson Advocate		Velazquez		Weaver	F	4
10	10		Valiant Force		Buick		Murray	-	12

6	Netjets Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies; 1 1/16 Miles; filles; 13 runners; purse $2000000

7	7		Tamara		Smith		Mandella	E	4/5
1	1		Candied		Saez		Pletcher	M	4
6	6		Chatalas		Fresu		Glatt	F	8

7	Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf; 1 Mile; turf; filles; 16 runners; purse $1000000

14	14		Les Pavots		Barzalona		Graffard	-	8
6	6		Porta Fortuna		Murphy		O'brien	-	5
9	9		Carla's Way		Doyle		Crisford	-	6

8	Fanduel Breeders' Cup Juvenile Presented By Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance; 1 1/16 Miles; 11 runners; purse $2000000

4	4		Timberlake		Geroux		Cox	E	4
10	10		Muth		Hernandez		Baffert	E	4
8	8		General Partner		Franco		Brown	F	8

9	Prevagen Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf; 1 Mile; turf; 14 runners; purse $1000000

8	8		Unquestionable		Dettori		O'brien	-	4
2	2		River Tiber		Moore		O'brien	-	3
5	5		My Boy Prince		Rosario		Casse	F	8

10	Optional Claiming $50,000; 6 Furlongs; 7 runners; purse $100000

4	4		Bus Buzz		Maldonado		Knapp	F	9/5
3	3		Hejazi		Hernandez		Baffert	E	7/5
2	2		Ghost Of Midnight		Fresu		Glatt	M	4

[ConleyPicks]

Churchill Downs Tip Sheet - November 3

Nov. 02, 2023

Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 69% of the time at this track

RACE #1 $12,500 CLAIMING 1 1/16 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 1:00 PM ET
BEST BET: #2 MY BARILEY
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	3-1	2	My Bariley	R Gutierrez
PLACE	5-2	1	Randello	A Quinonez
SHOW	5-1	5	Ferryboat	F Peterson
WILD CARD	7-2	6	Khozans Success	E Morales
ALTERNATE 1	9-2	4	Devoted to You	Y L Correa
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	3	Eli	R Bejarano
* EXACTA: 2-1 BOX, 1-5 BOX, 5-6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/5 BOX, 1/5/6 BOX
RACE #2 $30,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 1:31 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	4-1	2	Guadalajara	A Beschizza
PLACE	9-2	3	Pacific States	D Cohen
SHOW	3-1	4	Rate Confirmation	L Machado
WILD CARD	6-1	6	Gabbysonholiday	G Corrales
ALTERNATE 1	9-2	5	Tamashi	M Murrill
ALTERNATE 2	5-1	7	Buehlers Day Off	J D Ramos
* EXACTA: 2-3 BOX, 3-4 BOX, 4-6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/3/4 BOX, 3/4/6 BOX
RACE #3 $20,000 CLAIMING 7 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:02 PM ET
BEST BET: #6 TIGER DAD
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-2	6	Tiger Dad	F Arrieta
PLACE	3-1	4	Soaring Bird	E Morales
SHOW	2-1	7	Wind of Change	G Corrales
WILD CARD	10-1	8	Treasury	A Beschizza
ALTERNATE 1	15-1	2	Tiz of Thee	G Saez
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	1	Senor Jobim	K J Asmussen
* EXACTA: 6-4 BOX, 4-7 BOX, 7-8 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4/6/7 BOX, 4/7/8 BOX
RACE #4 $141,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING 1 1/16 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:37 PM ET
BEST BET: #3 ICE ORCHID
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	9-5	3	Ice Orchid	J R Leparoux
PLACE	5-2	2	Skratch Kat	F Arrieta
SHOW	7-5	6	Distinctlypossible	G Corrales
WILD CARD	12-1	5	Soul of an Angel	G Saez
ALTERNATE 1	10-1	1	Fannie and Freddie	B J Hernandez Jr.
ALTERNATE 2	15-1	4	Jungle Juice	R Gutierrez
* EXACTA: 3-2 BOX, 2-6 BOX, 6-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/3/6 BOX, 2/5/6 BOX
RACE #5 $120,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:14 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	4-1	4	Leaflet	E Morales
PLACE	3-1	7	Take Time to Dream	T Conner
SHOW	10-1	2	Devil Blue Dress	M Chuan
WILD CARD	5-2	5	Happy Charger	C J Lanerie
ALTERNATE 1	12-1	3	Gather	C J Hernandez
ALTERNATE 2	5-1	1	Liffey	G Corrales
* EXACTA: 4-7 BOX, 7-2 BOX, 2-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/4/7 BOX, 2/5/7 BOX
RACE #6 $141,000 ALLOWANCE 5 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 3:54 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	3-1	4	Little Prankster	M Murrill
PLACE	7-2	3	L Js Emma	D Cannon
SHOW	5-2	2	Sassy Nature	R Bejarano
WILD CARD	7-2	5	Stone Silent	G Corrales
ALTERNATE 1	8-1	7	Redifined	J R Leparoux
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	6	Erna	R Gutierrez
* EXACTA: 4-3 BOX, 3-2 BOX, 2-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/3/4 BOX, 2/3/5 BOX
RACE #7 $120,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 7 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:31 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	4-1	5	Lite It Up Louie	J Graham
PLACE	7-2	2	Bang Bang Fury	F Arrieta
SHOW	2-1	3	West Omaha	M Chuan
WILD CARD	10-1	6	Fun Loving	G Corrales
ALTERNATE 1	12-1	4	Viable	B J Hernandez Jr.
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	10	Pula	G Saez
* EXACTA: 5-2 BOX, 2-3 BOX, 3-6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/3/5 BOX, 2/3/6 BOX
RACE #8 $50,000 CLAIMING 7 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 5:15 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	9-2	9	A La Carte	A Quinonez
PLACE	7-2	3	Tim Tal	C J Hernandez
SHOW	10-1	8	Funny Uncle	C J Lanerie
WILD CARD	6-1	2	Seeking Unity	B J Hernandez Jr.
ALTERNATE 1	6-1	1	Work Order	A Beschizza
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	11	Night Effect	J Graham
* EXACTA: 9-3 BOX, 3-8 BOX, 8-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/8/9 BOX, 2/3/8 BOX
RACE #9 $134,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING 1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 5:58 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	4-1	2	Im So Sorry	T Conner
PLACE	10-1	4	Lady Hideaway	C Landeros
SHOW	7-2	6	Perhaps Tonight	E Morales
WILD CARD	3-1	7	Fancy Martini	J Graham
ALTERNATE 1	5-1	1	Howboutdemapples	R Gutierrez
ALTERNATE 2	10-1	8	Excelerina	G Corrales
* EXACTA: 2-4 BOX, 4-6 BOX, 6-7 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/4/6 BOX, 4/6/7 BOX
RACE #10 $56,000 STARTER ALLOWANCE 1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 6:54 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	3-1	9	Pigalle	B J Hernandez Jr.
PLACE	4-1	7	Master Game	J Graham
SHOW	5-2	6	Inexorable	K J Asmussen
WILD CARD	6-1	4	Skate to Heaven	G Corrales
ALTERNATE 1	12-1	2	Trigger Happy	E Morales
ALTERNATE 2	6-1	5	Sant Antimo	C J Lanerie
* EXACTA: 9-7 BOX, 7-6 BOX, 6-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 6/7/9 BOX, 4/6/7 BOX

[ConleyPicks]

Aqueduct Tip Sheet - November 3

Nov. 02, 2023

Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 71% of the time at this track.

RACE #1 $85,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 12:15 PM ET
BEST BET: #5 PARADISE LANE
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	7-2	5	Paradise Lane	J Lezcano
PLACE	8-5	8	Catherine Wheel	K Carmouche
SHOW	4-1	1	Backstretch Rose	T McCarthy
WILD CARD	15-1	4	Public Defender	M J Sanchez
ALTERNATE 1	15-1	6	Philanthropy	J A Gomez
ALTERNATE 2	6-1	10	Helcia	F Lynch
* EXACTA: 5-8 BOX, 8-1 BOX, 1-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/5/8 BOX, 1/4/8 BOX
RACE #2 $32,000 CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS ON THE OUTER TURF - POST TIME: 12:45 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	6-5	1	Mid Day Image	K Carmouche
PLACE	7-2	5	Maxwell Esquire	J Lezcano
SHOW	9-2	6	Ranger Fox	J A Gomez
WILD CARD	6-1	2	King James	A Adorno
ALTERNATE 1	6-5	1A	Chuck Willis	I Castillo
ALTERNATE 2	6-5	1X	Horn of Plenty	Rider TBA
* EXACTA: 1-5 BOX, 5-6 BOX, 6-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/5/6 BOX, 2/5/6 BOX
RACE #3 $150,000 STAKES 1 1/8 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 1:17 PM ET
** BONUS COMMENTARY ** $150,000 TURNBACK THE ALARM
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	2-1	2	Tizzy in the Sky	K Carmouche
PLACE	9-5	3	Interstatedaydream	T McCarthy
SHOW	5-2	1	Bellamore	J Lezcano
WILD CARD	9-2	4	Morning Matcha	M J Sanchez
ALTERNATE 1	8-1	5	Fireline	F Lynch
* EXACTA: 2-3 BOX, 3-1 BOX, 1-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/3 BOX, 1/3/4 BOX
COMMENTS: TIZZY IN THE SKY will go out for the early lead and has a good shot to keep going. INTERSTATEDAYDREAM has the best numbers and will be there at the end. BELLAMORE is dangerous despite not winning a race on the dirt. MORNING MATCHA would benefit from a fast pace.
RACE #4 $25,000 CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 1:45 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-1	3	My Girl Jal	K Carmouche
PLACE	6-1	6	Now Showing	J A Gomez
SHOW	6-1	8	Bustin Hot	E Cancel
WILD CARD	6-1	4	Best Coast	V Cheminaud
ALTERNATE 1	9-2	7	Shasi	J A Vargas Jr.
ALTERNATE 2	6-1	10	Will Be Famous	L R Rivera Jr.
* EXACTA: 3-6 BOX, 6-8 BOX, 8-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/6/8 BOX, 4/6/8 BOX
RACE #5 $75,000 ALLOWANCE 6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:16 PM ET
BEST BET: #4 CLOVER STREET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	4-1	4	Clover Street	J Lezcano
PLACE	4-1	7	Maggie T	K Carmouche
SHOW	5-1	8	Reigning Chick	T McCarthy
WILD CARD	3-1	2	Big Bean Christine	K Davis
ALTERNATE 1	10-1	1	Iced Mocha	M Olver
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	3	Solib	E Ruiz
* EXACTA: 4-7 BOX, 7-8 BOX, 8-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4/7/8 BOX, 2/7/8 BOX
RACE #6 $70,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 1 1/16 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 2:51 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-1	11	Charging Fast	F Lynch
PLACE	6-1	5	The Paddock Pastor	V Cheminaud
SHOW	8-1	4	Dunedin Causeway	L J Luzzi
WILD CARD	8-1	3	Rob the Bank	L R Rivera Jr.
ALTERNATE 1	8-1	7	Hard Par	K Davis
ALTERNATE 2	6-1	10	Frozen Four	T McCarthy
* EXACTA: 11-5 BOX, 5-4 BOX, 4-3 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4/5/11 BOX, 3/4/5 BOX
RACE #7 $20,000 CLAIMING 6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:26 PM ET
BEST BET: #2 BIG ENGINE
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-2	2	Big Engine	R Silvera
PLACE	6-1	3	Allaboutthemoney	I Castillo
SHOW	5-1	7	Pogi	K Carmouche
WILD CARD	4-1	6	Air Show	J Rendon
ALTERNATE 1	10-1	8	F F Rocket	R R Maragh
ALTERNATE 2	10-1	5	Charging Aero	J Lezcano
* EXACTA: 2-3 BOX, 3-7 BOX, 7-6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/3/7 BOX, 3/6/7 BOX
RACE #8 $95,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING 1 1/16 MILES ON THE OUTER TURF - POST TIME: 4:03 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	7-2	6	Duke of Hazzard	K Carmouche
PLACE	6-1	7	Call Me Harry	J Lezcano
SHOW	5-1	5	King Vega	F Boyce
WILD CARD	7-2	2	Me and Mr. C	T McCarthy
ALTERNATE 1	5-2	1	Public Sector	F Lynch
ALTERNATE 2	7-5	9	Kinetic Sky	Rider TBA
* EXACTA: 6-7 BOX, 7-5 BOX, 5-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 5/6/7 BOX, 2/5/7 BOX
RACE #9 $150,000 STAKES 1 1/8 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:40 PM ET
** BONUS COMMENTARY ** $150,000 DISCOVERY STAKES
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-2	1	Army Times	F Lynch
PLACE	7-5	2	Crupi	K Carmouche
SHOW	2-1	6	Tabeguache	J Lezcano
WILD CARD	6-1	3	Winters Lion	V Cheminaud
ALTERNATE 1	6-1	4	Drakes Passage	T McCarthy
ALTERNATE 2	15-1	5	Dats Mr. Mo	X Perez
* EXACTA: 1-2 BOX, 2-6 BOX, 6-3 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/6 BOX, 2/3/6 BOX
COMMENTS: ARMY TIMES has speed from the rail and should get the early lead. CRUPI will be flying late. TABEGUACHE could be dangerous after the small layoff. WINTERS LION could add value to your exotics.
RACE #10 $70,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 1 1/16 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 5:17 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-1	4	Eric From Miami	K Carmouche
PLACE	5-1	2	English Castle	V Cheminaud
SHOW	7-2	1	Ez Roll	T McCarthy
WILD CARD	10-1	7	Jhirsch	F Boyce
ALTERNATE 1	10-1	5	Albedo	J Lezcano
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	10	Patronage	J A Gomez
* EXACTA: 4-2 BOX, 2-1 BOX, 1-7 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/4 BOX, 1/2/7 BOX