Friday 11/17/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Meadowlands

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 13 - Post: 11:20 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 85 - Purse:$12500 - FILLIES & MARES N/W $7,500

CONSORTIUM CHOICES
	# 9 LAURIE LEE 8/1
# 2 TRUE BLUE HANOVER 6/1
# 5 CHEVRONS BYPASS N 12/1

We've got an instinct LAURIE LEE is going to get the win and the potential dividend justifies the long odds. Her 85 average has this mare among the most solid TrackMaster Speed Ratings this time. Certainly did like this mare's last race. Ran a strong 88 TrackMaster Speed Rating. Major contender. TRUE BLUE HANOVER - This filly getting the trip to the winner's circle wouldn't be impossible, a chance. CHEVRONS BYPASS N - This solid standardbred looks strong considering the high class rankings. Don't throw out of any exotics. Bang-up driver-trainer rankings make this standardbred a very promising choice. Most likely will be putting some profits down today.

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Century Mile

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 3 - Post: 7:03 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 64 - Purse:$8900 - FILLIES & MARES NW 2001 LAST 3 STARTS AE: CLAIMING 15,000

CONSORTIUM CHOICES
	# 3 MOONSTRUCK 2/1
# 5 ELECTRIC AMADEUS 4/1
# 2 YOU PROMYST 6/1

MOONSTRUCK is the clear stand out play in the eyes of the handicapping group. The knowledge group knows that speed is King in harness racing. This fine animal will unlock our way to a nice triumph. With a 68 average class rating, this harness racer has one of the most favorable class advantages in the group. This entrant earned a very good TrackMaster speed fig last time out. Looks fit to come right back. ELECTRIC AMADEUS - Could unquestionably defeat this field of horses given the 60 TrackMaster SR recorded in her last contest. Miller and Brooking Lutz have a nice working relationship. Fantastic results from their races. YOU PROMYST - Had one of the most solid speed ratings of the pack in her last race. A good idea to use in your bets. Filly and trainer go together like Sonny and Cher. They finish in the money 85 percent of their races.

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Hoosier Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 14 - Post: 10:48 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 92 - Purse:$16000 - OPEN 3 ****$10,000 GUAR. HOOSIER HIGH 5 POOL**** NO. 10 STARTS FROM 2ND TIER OFF TIME 10:52

CONSORTIUM CHOICES
	# 2 GOLDIE'S LEGACY 8/1
# 5 IM SIR BLAKE A 3/1
# 7 THIS KIT ROCKS 20/1

After thorough analysis by the handicapping group, GOLDIE'S LEGACY comes out as the top selection and the potential dividend justifies the long odds. This nice horse may have some hidden form, a win would be a pleasant surprise. IM SIR BLAKE A - Is a clear-cut win contender given the 96 speed figure from his most recent race. We're not going to pass on this gelding given one of the most compelling driver-conditioner percentages around. THIS KIT ROCKS - Overall statistics look very nice. Can't throw him out of the picture. The 93 average class rating may give this gelding a distinct edge in the bunch.

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by TrackMaster Greg at Yonkers Raceway

P#	PP	HORSE NAME	M/L	DRIVER - WIN%	POINTS
RACE 8
7	7	MCMARKLE SPARKLE	20/1	Bongiorno, Joe - 20	528.72
5	5	GOT THE GOLD	8/1	Holland, Brent - 11	527.32
1	1	TWO PROUD	5/2	Kakaley, Matt - 18	524.44
2	2	MAN DONTFORGET ME	9/2	Di Nozzi, Robert - 0	523.72
4	4	SILENT CROSSING	12/1	Buter, Tyler - 11	514.65
6	6	TWIN B SUNKISSED	7/2	Brennan, George - 17	510.29
3	3	OAXACAN DREAM N	6/1	Marohn, Jim Jr - 11	495.17
8	8	DELITFULCATHERIN N	5/1	Stratton, Jordan - 13	488.26

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BRIAN W. SPENCER'S DAILY PICKS

Fair Grounds - Race #4
PICKS NOTES
#5 A G's Gem Nothing from her in the Delta debut run earlier this month, but the barn sent a lot of livewires out here last year, especially at the start (more on that below). Maybe better today with a better break?
#9 Jackson D He was in the mix until midstretch with an open maiden claiming group at Churchill in the debut, and he gets a good draw to be the prompting pace from out here.
#10 Ells Get a look at him on the track and tote, but he strikes me as the type who might be ready enough to roll at first asking. Wouldn't be a shock.
Race Summary Opening Day at my favorite meet of the year, and I look forward to tracking some tough trips and potential price players in this space. A couple notes and stats (courtesy of Betmix) that are going to influence some of those decisions: 1.) There is still some work to be done at Churchill Downs, so the earliest weeks of the season tilt toward Louisiana-bred action. The first few weeks last year saw some serious action out of Patricia West's barn, solid strike rates with negative ROIs from Cox, Calhoun and Camejo, and surprisingly slow starts from Asmussen (1-13), Sharp (1-16), and Govea (2-22). 2.) The turf course had a...unique season. Turf racing didn't start until several weeks into the season and was only in limited use through almost the entire meet — very few races, eight horses max, temp rail always out at an extremely wide setting, and the only good part of the course was the very widest part. It led to a lot of races that are wild to watch back, with five or six jocks all angling out to be the lucky one racing in something like the 25 path. I'm going to be patient and forgiving with horses who fired duds on the lawn here last year. 3.) Jareth Loveberry's work over this turf course has been incredible the last few years. The ROI is on a completely different level from everyone else. Keep that in mind, but don't forget another angle I lean on alot here and will continue to consider-- for your betting dollar and mine, the numbers don't lie: nobody rides routes on this turf course better than Brian Hernandez Jr.

Fair Grounds - Race #7
PICKS NOTES
#2 Modern Sound She hasn't stacked up quite as well in those Kentucky follow-up starts after a useful Hawthorne debut, but I am not sure this is going to be the deepest race for the level we're going to see all season. Midrange price upside?
#5 Lola's Light Considered her on top, but I think she's worth a look either way. The pedigree is there to be better than she showed at first asking, and it's not a bad thing to return with Lasix after a stopping effort like that..
#11 Mia Marcela Expected her to stay a bit better in that second career start, but she folded up late in that one. The move to turf gives her some hope to move up, but she seems potentially dicey late either way.
Race Summary Modern Sound and Lola's Light both need much better than they showed in their most recent respective efforts, but I think they'll offer the right kinds of prices to see if that upside exists.

Fair Grounds - Race #9
PICKS NOTES
#13 Accommodate Eva I worry she might be a bit overbet in here after trying Grade I company just a few weeks ago, but her better stuff would make her a real handful today, and there's obviously nothing like Just F Y I lining up against her today.
#5 Diamond Deal I like that she has carried decent form across three different racing surfaces so far as she now tries a fourth, and she has a little bit of ability to rate and finish that should serve her well from just in behind more committed pace.
#3 Lightofmaine She moved forward nicely in that last one, and she can be in the frame right back with these if she has another step up in her. Consider.
Race Summary Accommodate Eva might be the right one in here while getting major class relief, but I think you can make a case for a few of them in here if she gets wildly overbet.

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FRANK CARULLI'S DAILY PICKS

Gulfstream Park - Race #1
PICKS NOTES
#2 COPANELLO BAY (4-1) Blew the turn, burst on the scene late for second, today’s Best Bet.
#5 GABAGOOL (9-2) Monmouth invader drops from MSW ranks, gets blinkers as first-time gelding.
#6 GARY’S FLYING LION (6 Sped off with commanding stretch lead, caught late in five-horse field.
Race Summary COPANELLO BAY was unhurried on the backstretch, dropped out of contention when he blew the turn, then emerged widest in the stretch to finish second to the even-money runaway. He is a strong play if he maintains a straight course today. Bet to win and place.

Gulfstream Park - Race #2
PICKS NOTES
#3 SHE’S SO BEARISH (9-2 Good fit at this level, adds blinkers, could return quick claim dividend.
#7 GREEK MOJO (8-5) Led until stretch despite trouble at 6F, returns on similar rest at 5-1/2F.
#5 MEGAN MAKIN MONEY (9-5) Finally carried her speed to maiden victory, enters new barn.
Race Summary SHE’S SO BEARISH was in a prime stalking spot but was out-kicked by the deep closers as the favorite last out. She bid 5-wide in her prior two starts to finish in the money at this level with Morelos aboard. Play 3-5 and 3-7 exactas.

Gulfstream Park - Race #4
PICKS NOTES
#4 HARRY’S ONTHEBEACH (7 Has done best running in Barboza barn in short sprints.
#8 FAST FIXER (3-1) New stablemate of ‘Harry’ won 3 of his last 5 starts, draws favorable post.
#5 THE GREAT CEASAR (6-1) Stablemate of top pair was hard-ridden on turn and caught odds-on fave.
Race Summary Trainer Victory Barboza Jr. has a triple threat in this nw/3 sprint, so box them in a 4-5-8 exacta. The versatile HARRY’S ONTHEBEACH gets the top call after he tested a repeat winner from on and off the pace, settling for second best both times.

[ConleyPicks]

ALKING HORSES
Friday November 17, 2023
AQUEDUCT

Andy Serling
Race 1 7 - 6 - 3 - 2
Race 2 8 - 5 - 6 - 7
Race 3 8 - 1A/1 - 5 - 4
Race 4 4 - 1 - 5 - 7
Race 5 8 - 1 - 6 - 4
Race 6 3 - 7 - 8 - 4
Race 7 2 - 4 - 5 - 6
Race 8 1 - 12 - 8 - 4
Race 9 6 - 7 - 2 - 1/1A

[ConleyPicks]

Picks & Plays for Friday, November 17
by David Aragona

AQUEDUCT

PICKS

Race 1: 7 - 2 - 5 - 3
Race 2: 1 - 8 - 5 - 6
Race 3: 8 - 1A - 3 - 5
Race 4: 7 - 1 - 5 - 9
Race 5: 4 - 5 - 1 - 2
Race 6: 7 - 3 - 8 - 5
Race 7: 3 - 6 - 4 - 5
Race 8: 4 - 8 - 1 - 12
Race 9: 1 - 10 - 7 - 2

FAIR VALUE PLAYS
(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)


RACE 3

It’s pretty obvious that Emaraaty (#1A) is the class of this field, having run many races that should put him in the winner’s circle at this level. It’s just hard to trust him to actually get the job done considering the way he hung last time. He looked like a sure winner approaching the eighth pole, as he ranged up alongside the leaders with momentum. Yet he stalled just as he hit the front, and refused to put those two away, somehow managing to finish behind two rivals. It’s not like he’s a horse with a great deal of upside now as an 8-year-old, so I don’t want to take a short price on him to improve up on that result here. The problem with this race is that it came up fairly weak for the level. I find it difficult to build a case for anyone other than his stablemate. Fortunately, Running Bee (#8) is a suitable alternative. This horse needed his first start as a 2-year-old, but improved quickly when he returned last year. He ran into a very promising rival off the layoff and then impressively won his next start at Saratoga with a respectable speed figure. I won’t hold the Kentucky Downs race against him, since that was a bog (a 4 on the TimeformUS Condition Rating scale is far worse than “good”). He won his seasonal finale at Keeneland in impressive fashion before going to the sidelines. He’s been off for a long time, but Chad Brown has fantastic stats with these types. He’s 14 for 45 (31%, $2.21 ROI) with 4-year-old and up runners off 250 to 500 day layoffs in turf routes over 5 years.

Fair Value:
#8 RUNNING BEE, at 2-1 or greater


RACE 5

I can’t take a short price on Quiet Wisdom (#1), who has burned money in all three of his starts. He ran well on debut, chasing a fast rival around the track. However, he failed to finish off his second race despite having dead aim at the leaders in upper stretch. He then was very disappointing as the heavy favorite in the slop last time, getting outdueled by a seemingly inferior rival. He is a half-brother to dirt router Curlin’s Wisdom, but this colt is by Into Mischief, and I’m not convinced that he’s going to relish the mile distance based on his prior performances. Among his main rivals is intriguing first time starter Judge Rules (#8), a homebred for Barry Schwartz going out for Christophe Clement, who does well with these types. By Tapit out of the Grade 1-winning mare Princess Violet, he’s bred to be a good one. Yet it’s not easy to win going a mile on debut, and I prefer others with experience. Vin Santo (#5) is somewhat interesting getting on dirt for the first time. He really doesn’t have much of a turf pedigree, though we’re still learning about Vino Rosso as a sire. His dam is a half-sister to Kentucky Derby winner Always Dreaming as well as dirt sprinter Hot Dixie Chick. He didn’t run well last time, but he had shown ability in his two prior starts, and now he’s getting a significant rider upgrade to Kendrick Carmouche. My top pick is Prophetic (#4). He just feels like a horse who is supposed to improve with experience and distance. He didn’t take that much money on debut, and had to be hard ridden around the far turn. Yet he kept responding to pressure through the lane and was making up ground on Quiet Wisdom across the wire. He’s bred to appreciate added ground, being by good dirt route sire Lookin at Lucky and a full-brother to G2 Louisiana Derby winner Wells Bayou. I expect a step forward here and he figures to be a square price.

Fair Value:
#4 PROPHETIC, at 4-1 or greater
#5 VIN SANTO, at 7-1 or greater


RACE 7

The two horses drawn in the outside stalls of the starting gate figure to attract the most support in this high-level optional claimer. Gun It (#6) defeated main rival Nova Rags (#5) when they met in a similar race back in June at Belmont. Nova Rags chased uncharacteristically close up to the pace before Gun It overhauled him in the late stages, winning for just the fourth time in 36 lifetime starts. Neither one of these horses has been a win machine, with even Nova Rags settling for minor awards more often than not as he’s ascended the allowance ranks. They both make sense in this spot, and I do somewhat prefer Gun It’s recency. He ran well in his return from the layoff in October, closing strongly up the rail. Yet he still failed to change leads, as is often the case with him. Some might consider Kinetic Sky (#4) to be the main rival as he attempts to get back on track for trainer Richard Dutrow. His form since the claim has been heading in the wrong direction after he ran so well in his first start for the new barn. Yet he faced a strong field in his return from a 3-month layoff two back, and then might not have appreciated a 6-day turnaround. He’s now had more time between starts, and it's a good sign that there’s no drop in for a tag. I want to go in a different direction with Bill Mott’s other horse in the race. Baby Yoda (#3) is another horse who appears to be off form, but I can make some excuses for his recent starts. He’s had some trouble getting out of the gate recently, which caused him to race out of position while wide every step of the way in the Russell Road two back. Then last time he again broke a step slowly and got caught behind a slow pace in a race dominated up front. He actually tried to make a run before flattening out, and might have been more effective over a shorter distances. He’s concentrated on one-mile races for much of the last year, but I actually like this slight turnback for him. I expect Joel Rosario to give him a more aggressive ride if he can get him out of the gate cleanly, and I believe he still has the talent to beat a group like this.

Fair Value:
#3 BABY YODA, at 7-2 or greater


RACE 8

I don’t have major knocks against the likely favorites in this Autumn Days. Danse Macabre (#12) is somewhat disadvantaged by her outside post position, especially for a horse who got such a good trip and pace setup when she won the Glen Cove in her last start. She’s still a contender, but I would give slight preference to Poppy Flower (#8) between the morning line favorites. She’s coming off a minor layoff, but she had been entered and rained off the turf since her last race. I won’t hold her loss to Roses for Debra against her, and she had run well enough to win here when closing to victory in the Intercontinental two back. Six furlongs suits her, and there’s pace in her to set up her late run. All That Magic (#1) is another who deserves to take money given her solid turf record. I won’t be hard on her for losing the Turf Monster two back when she was one of many horses who failed to handle the boggy conditions at Parx. She won as an overlay last time at Keeneland, showing a new dimension to rally from well off the pace. That versatility should serve her well here, especially with a speedball like Lady Milagro drawn just outside of her. My top pick is Loon Cry (#4), who figures to be a slightly better price. She looks a little slow on speed figures and is coming back on relatively short rest. Yet she only had to run for about a furlong last time, quickly running by the entire field once Jose Ortiz asked her for run before swiftly getting reined in before the finish. She made that run into a slow pace, proving far more superior than the half-length margin would suggest. She was also unlucky to lose at the same level two back when given too much ground to make up. She has to avoid getting too far back this time, but she possesses a terrific late burst of speed, and I think her underrated allowance form will translate well to this level.

Fair Value:
#4 LOON CRY, at 9-2 or greater

[ConleyPicks]

Churchill Downs Hotlist - November 17
Nov. 15, 2023

By Bob Ehalt and Matt Shifman

Hot List Key:

A : A preferred horse to watch B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches in the final 3 minutes and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4th or worse
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.

1st race – (3) Mahomebred tired in the slop and may not look back on a dry track. (6) Wiki Leo adds blinkers and drops in class. (1) Markswoman exits a sharp maiden win. Betting strategy: 3 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-3-6. Doubles: 1-3-6 with 1-4-6.

2nd race – (6) April Clover returns to the main track and merits top billing. (1) Fessy will be dangerous from the rail. (4) Too Fast for You may wake up at this level. Betting strategy: 6 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-4-6.

5th race – (6) Furious Anger (B) had a troubled trip around two turns and should welcome a return to a sprint. (4) Dazzlemesilver ships in from California and looks like the main threat. (5) Perfect Upstart will be well-suited by a sprint. Betting strategy: 6 to win, place. Exacta box: 4-5-6.

7th race – (2) Ghazaaly was second in his last two races in California and looks best here. (3) Cant Be Doin That didn’t fire off a nine-month layoff. Should be more competitive here. (4) Dai Vernon merits attention in his first start for Mott. (5) Tejas should be closing quickly at the end. Betting strategy: 2 to win, place. Exacta box: 2-3-4-5.

9th race – (4) Highland Falls closed nicely for third and can work out a winning trip here. (2) Redeemer looks like the main threat. (8) Just Battle belongs in the exotics. (9) Ten Days Later should respond to a return to dirt. Betting strategy: 4 to win, place. Exacta box: 2-4-8-9.

No. Letter/Last race Today’s race Comment
(6) Furious Anger B, 10/21 5 CD Had a troubled trip last time

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Aqueduct Tip Sheet - November 17

Nov. 16, 2023

Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 69% of the time at this track

RACE #1 $85,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 1:20 PM ET
BEST BET: #2 STOLEN MAGIC
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-2	2	Stolen Magic	J Lezcano
PLACE	3-1	3	Wajda	I Ortiz Jr.
SHOW	5-1	6	Sardis	M Franco
WILD CARD	6-1	4	Corporate Power	J L Ortiz
ALTERNATE 1	8-1	5	Bonus Move	J R Velazquez
ALTERNATE 2	6-1	7	Livehappy	T McCarthy
* EXACTA: 2-3 BOX, 3-6 BOX, 6-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/3/6 BOX, 3/4/6 BOX
RACE #2 $30,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING 1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 1:50 PM ET
BEST BET: #6 WATCH HILL
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	4-1	6	Watch Hill	M Franco
PLACE	5-2	8	Aula	R Silvera
SHOW	4-1	2	Munny for Nuthin	D Davis
WILD CARD	3-1	5	Dudley Dickerson	K Carmouche
ALTERNATE 1	10-1	3	Waflr	T McCarthy
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	1	Silent Running	L R Rivera Jr.
* EXACTA: 6-8 BOX, 8-2 BOX, 2-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/6/8 BOX, 2/5/8 BOX
RACE #3 $95,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING 1 1/16 MILES ON THE OUTER TURF - POST TIME: 2:18 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	4-1	5	Dripping Gold	J Lezcano
PLACE	8-5	1A	Emaraaty	M Franco
SHOW	3-1	8	Running Bee	I Ortiz Jr.
WILD CARD	8-1	3	Carpenters Call	J Alvarado
ALTERNATE 1	8-5	1	Ocala Dream	K Carmouche
ALTERNATE 2	9-2	10	Midnight Trouble	T McCarthy
* EXACTA: 5-1 BOX, 1-8 BOX, 8-3 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/5/8 BOX, 1/3/8 BOX
RACE #4 $16,000 CLAIMING 6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:46 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	4-1	5	Hatch	D Davis
PLACE	5-2	1	Bad Larry	M Franco
SHOW	5-1	7	Legendary Lore	L R Rivera Jr.
WILD CARD	10-1	4	Flash Kiss	J A Gomez
ALTERNATE 1	10-1	2	Built to Last	E Cancel
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	8	Gun Maestro	S Uske
* EXACTA: 5-1 BOX, 1-7 BOX, 7-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/5/7 BOX, 1/4/7 BOX
RACE #5 $70,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:15 PM ET
BEST BET: #1 QUIET WISDOM
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	2-1	1	Quiet Wisdom	I Ortiz Jr.
PLACE	6-1	4	Prophetic	D Davis
SHOW	9-2	2	Brick Ambush	J Alvarado
WILD CARD	3-1	8	Judge Rules	J Rosario
ALTERNATE 1	8-1	5	Vin Santo	K Carmouche
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	7	Mamas Middie	M Franco
* EXACTA: 1-4 BOX, 4-2 BOX, 2-8 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/4 BOX, 2/4/8 BOX
RACE #6 $120,000 STAKES 1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 3:44 PM ET
** BONUS COMMENTARY ** $120,000 TEPIN STAKES
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-1	5	Brocknardini	I Ortiz Jr.
PLACE	5-2	3	Memorialize	M Franco
SHOW	9-2	7	Voter Registration	J L Ortiz
WILD CARD	7-2	8	Gold Lightning	J Castellano
ALTERNATE 1	2-1	10	Most of All	J Alvarado
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	4	Awesome Czech	K Carmouche
* EXACTA: 5-3 BOX, 3-7 BOX, 7-8 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/5/7 BOX, 3/7/8 BOX
COMMENTS: BROCKNARDINI has been impressive throw that middle start out where everything went wrong. MEMORIALIZE comes out of a graded race and will be coming late. VOTER REGISTRATION on debut will be a player pay attention to the tote. GOLD LIGHTNING needs to be played in your exotics.
RACE #7 $95,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING 7 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:14 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-2	6	Gun It	J L Ortiz
PLACE	7-2	4	Kinetic Sky	I Ortiz Jr.
SHOW	9-5	5	Nova Rags	J Alvarado
WILD CARD	9-2	3	Baby Yoda	J Rosario
ALTERNATE 1	6-1	1A	Synthesis	I Castillo
ALTERNATE 2	6-1	1	Chewing Gum	M Franco
* EXACTA: 6-4 BOX, 4-5 BOX, 5-3 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4/5/6 BOX, 3/4/5 BOX
RACE #8 $150,000 STAKES 6 FURLONGS ON THE OUTER TURF - POST TIME: 4:42 PM ET
** BONUS COMMENTARY ** $150,000 AUTUMN DAYS STAKES
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	7-2	12	Danse Macabre	A Beschizza
PLACE	9-2	1	All That Magic	K Carmouche
SHOW	6-1	4	Loon Cry	I Ortiz Jr.
WILD CARD	3-1	8	Poppy Flower	J L Ortiz
ALTERNATE 1	6-1	3	Sterling Silver	J Castellano
ALTERNATE 2	4-1	14	Hot Fudge	J Lezcano
* EXACTA: 12-1 BOX, 1-4 BOX, 4-8 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/4/12 BOX, 1/4/8 BOX
COMMENTS: DANSE MACABRE has been in the exacta in eight of nine starts. ALL THAT MAGIC has all that speed from the rail. LOON CRY will be coming late and has hit the board in all nine career starts. POPPY FLOWER another consistent horse that will be around at the end.
RACE #9 $70,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 1 1/16 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 5:10 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	4-1	2	Starts Now	E Cancel
PLACE	5-1	5	Voleuse	J Rosario
SHOW	7-2	7	Shelly	M Franco
WILD CARD	10-1	3	Sainte Chapelle	D Davis
ALTERNATE 1	8-1	6	North End Lady	J Alvarado
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	10	Lady Laoban	J R Velazquez
* EXACTA: 2-5 BOX, 5-7 BOX, 7-3 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/5/7 BOX, 3/5/7 BOX

[ConleyPicks]

Churchill Downs Tip Sheet - November 17

Nov. 16, 2023

Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 69% of the time at this track.

RACE #1 $16,000 CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:00 PM ET
BEST BET: #6 WIKI LIO
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-2	6	Wiki Lio	G Corrales
PLACE	3-1	3	Mahomebred	F Arrieta
SHOW	2-1	1	Markswoman	T Gaffalione
WILD CARD	7-2	2	Insightful Miss	D Cannon
ALTERNATE 1	10-1	5	Long Black Veil	L Machado
ALTERNATE 2	15-1	4	Zero Click	R Bejarano
* EXACTA: 6-3 BOX, 3-1 BOX, 1-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/3/6 BOX, 1/2/3 BOX
RACE #2 $25,000 CLAIMING 7 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:30 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	3-1	4	Too Fast for You	L Saez
PLACE	9-2	3	Baytown Angel	E Morales
SHOW	5-2	6	April Clover	R Santana Jr.
WILD CARD	4-1	5	Wisco Disco	G Ashton
ALTERNATE 1	7-2	1	Fessy	F Geroux
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	2	Lucky Lesson	A Lezcano
* EXACTA: 4-3 BOX, 3-6 BOX, 6-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/4/6 BOX, 3/5/6 BOX
RACE #3 $40,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING 7 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:00 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	4-1	4	Adiva	L Saez
PLACE	3-1	3	Nursekringledances	J R Leparoux
SHOW	4-1	1	Shes So Malice	T Gaffalione
WILD CARD	7-2	5	Perceptive	R Bejarano
ALTERNATE 1	8-1	2	Wild Acclaim	E Morales
ALTERNATE 2	9-2	7	Dont Cross Boudica	J McKee
* EXACTA: 4-3 BOX, 3-1 BOX, 1-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/3/4 BOX, 1/3/5 BOX
RACE #4 $12,500 CLAIMING 7 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:30 PM ET
BEST BET: #1 SENOR JOBIM
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-2	1	Senor Jobim	K J Asmussen
PLACE	5-1	4	Boise	G Saez
SHOW	3-1	7	Populist	T Gaffalione
WILD CARD	8-1	2	Commander Carl	L Machado
ALTERNATE 1	10-1	3	Improbable Story	D Cannon
ALTERNATE 2	9-2	5	Cathedral Beach	F Arrieta
* EXACTA: 1-4 BOX, 4-7 BOX, 7-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/4/7 BOX, 2/4/7 BOX
RACE #5 $120,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:01 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	6-5	6	Furious Anger	M Garcia
PLACE	7-5	4	Dazzlemesilver	B J Hernandez Jr.
SHOW	6-1	5	Perfect Upstart	J Elliott
WILD CARD	10-1	2	Added Mischief	D Cannon
ALTERNATE 1	8-1	3	Accident	E Morales
ALTERNATE 2	15-1	1	Naughtyson	A Calleja
* EXACTA: 6-4 BOX, 4-5 BOX, 5-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4/5/6 BOX, 2/4/5 BOX
RACE #6 $30,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING 7 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:31 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	4-1	6	Isa Lei	L Saez
PLACE	5-1	5	Queen Lexi	L Machado
SHOW	7-2	4	Noto	F Geroux
WILD CARD	10-1	3	Lindsey	B J Hernandez Jr.
ALTERNATE 1	6-1	1	Shes Splendid	C J Hernandez
ALTERNATE 2	9-2	7	Miwoman	K J Asmussen
* EXACTA: 6-5 BOX, 5-4 BOX, 4-3 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4/5/6 BOX, 3/4/5 BOX
RACE #7 $127,000 ALLOWANCE 1 1/16 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 5:01 PM ET
BEST BET: #4 DAI VERNON
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	4-1	4	Dai Vernon	L Saez
PLACE	4-1	1	You Aint Poppn	R Santana Jr.
SHOW	3-1	2	Ghazaaly	T Gaffalione
WILD CARD	7-2	6	Single Dot Yaht	E Morales
ALTERNATE 1	10-1	5	Tejas	L Machado
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	7	Redemption Time	F Arrieta
* EXACTA: 4-1 BOX, 1-2 BOX, 2-6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/4 BOX, 1/2/6 BOX
RACE #8 $134,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING 5 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 5:33 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	6-1	1	Zoombie	L Machado
PLACE	6-5	4	Outadore	G Corrales
SHOW	5-1	6	Just Say When	T Gaffalione
WILD CARD	8-1	3	Go West	F Arrieta
ALTERNATE 1	9-2	7	Excess Magic	L Saez
ALTERNATE 2	6-1	12	Artemus Citylimits	T Gaffalione
* EXACTA: 1-4 BOX, 4-6 BOX, 6-3 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/4/6 BOX, 3/4/6 BOX
RACE #9 $127,000 ALLOWANCE 1 1/16 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 6:05 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-2	2	Redeemer	T Gaffalione
PLACE	5-1	3	Smile Mon	M Chuan
SHOW	2-1	4	Highland Falls	F Geroux
WILD CARD	6-1	8	Just Battle	L Saez
ALTERNATE 1	9-2	9	Ten Days Later	B J Hernandez Jr.
ALTERNATE 2	15-1	5	J Js Joker	F Arrieta
* EXACTA: 2-3 BOX, 3-4 BOX, 4-8 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/3/4 BOX, 3/4/8 BOX

[ConleyPicks]

Del Mar Tip Sheet - November 17

Nov. 16, 2023

Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 65% of the time at this track.

RACE #1 $20,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING 1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:30 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	2-5	2	Vulin	T Baze
PLACE	6-5	4	Exclusive Joni	E A Maldonado
SHOW	5-1	3	Fast Investment	A Alsagoor
WILD CARD	3-1	5	Boginskaya	K Frey
ALTERNATE 1	15-1	6	Best Year Ever	G Franco
ALTERNATE 2	15-1	1	Round in Circles	A Escobedo
* EXACTA: 2-4 BOX, 4-3 BOX, 3-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/3/4 BOX, 3/4/5 BOX
RACE #2 $61,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 5 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 4:58 PM ET
BEST BET: #3 ANTONSEN
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-2	3	Antonsen	J J Hernandez
PLACE	6-5	4	Man O Rose	E A Maldonado
SHOW	6-1	5	Rhythem On Stage	A Fresu
WILD CARD	3-1	2	Grand Tiger	J Valdivia Jr.
ALTERNATE 1	6-1	1	More Try	M Gutierrez
* EXACTA: 3-4 BOX, 4-5 BOX, 5-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/4/5 BOX, 2/4/5 BOX
RACE #3 $32,000 CLAIMING 7 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 5:28 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	1-1	4	La Paloma Blanca	F Prat
PLACE	4-1	5	Yolo Calls	E A Maldonado
SHOW	5-2	3	Sweet Mother Mary	A Fresu
WILD CARD	5-1	2	American Heights	A Aguilar
ALTERNATE 1	8-1	1	Blonde Bombshell	K Frey
* EXACTA: 4-5 BOX, 5-3 BOX, 3-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/4/5 BOX, 2/3/5 BOX
RACE #4 $22,500 CLAIMING 1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 5:58 PM ET
BEST BET: #2 KATERINI
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	3-1	2	Katerini	F Prat
PLACE	4-1	3	Issa Court	U Rispoli
SHOW	5-2	1	Quaria Thunder	A Fresu
WILD CARD	3-1	5	Rose Barton	E A Maldonado
ALTERNATE 1	5-1	4	Unfaithful Ways	J Torrealba
ALTERNATE 2	6-1	6	On Purpose	T J Pereira
* EXACTA: 2-3 BOX, 3-1 BOX, 1-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/3 BOX, 1/3/5 BOX
RACE #5 $61,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 6:28 PM ET
BEST BET: #1 EXCEL CALCULATOR
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-2	1	Excel Calculator	J J Hernandez
PLACE	4-1	2	Mixto	A Fresu
SHOW	8-5	4	Bad Sneakers	F Prat
WILD CARD	4-1	5	Pioneer Prince	M E Smith
ALTERNATE 1	8-1	3	Ship and Scam	M Gutierrez
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	6	Mauna Kea Bound	E A Maldonado
* EXACTA: 1-2 BOX, 2-4 BOX, 4-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/4 BOX, 2/4/5 BOX
RACE #6 $61,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 5 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 6:58 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	3-1	3	Clements Ride	F Prat
PLACE	3-1	2	Shady Tiger	J J Hernandez
SHOW	8-1	6	Monsieur	E Garcia
WILD CARD	5-2	8	Immelmann	K Frey
ALTERNATE 1	4-1	9	Stagger Lee	T J Pereira
ALTERNATE 2	3-1	10	Smiling Jojo	R A Vazquez
* EXACTA: 3-2 BOX, 2-6 BOX, 6-8 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/3/6 BOX, 2/6/8 BOX
RACE #7 $65,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING 6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 7:28 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-2	1	Sir Atticus	M E Smith
PLACE	3-1	2	Positivity	A Fresu
SHOW	9-5	4	Fort Bragg	J J Hernandez
WILD CARD	5-1	3	C Z Rocket	F Prat
ALTERNATE 1	4-1	6	Classic Car Wash	U Rispoli
ALTERNATE 2	20-1	5	Radical Right	R A Vazquez
* EXACTA: 1-2 BOX, 2-4 BOX, 4-3 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/4 BOX, 2/3/4 BOX
RACE #8 $63,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING 1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 7:58 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-1	8	Talklessworkmore	K Frey
PLACE	3-1	5	Bigofromfresno	U Rispoli
SHOW	5-1	3	Fore Flag	T J Pereira
WILD CARD	6-1	10	Big Coupe	D A Herrera
ALTERNATE 1	7-2	11	Luka Grazie	F Prat
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	1	Silent Heat	F Prat
* EXACTA: 8-5 BOX, 5-3 BOX, 3-10 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/5/8 BOX, 3/5/10 BOX

[ConleyPicks]

Free play from Mike Wynn

Free Pick: Illinois -28 over Valparaiso

[ConleyPicks]

Free play from Totals4U

Friday Free Selection: New York Knicks/Washington Wizards over 227 1/2

[ConleyPicks]

Free play from #1 Sports

Friday's Free Play: Penn State Nittany Lions - 13 1/2