Saturday 11/18/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by TrackMaster Greg at Saratoga Harness

P#	PP	HORSE NAME	M/L	DRIVER - WIN%	POINTS
RACE 4
3	3	HERRICKROOSEVELT N	7/2	Gray, Shawn T - 20	489.81
2	2	MENLO PARK	9/2	Cushing, Mitchell - 11	489.01
1	1	BUNGALOW BILL N	7/5	Randall, Jay - 17	487.49
7	7	EVERYTHING Z TAM	15/1	Devaux, Jim - 20	477.93
4	4	THISISHOWWEDOIT	8/1	Beckwith, Brett - 16	447.15
6	6	SQUADRON SEELSTER	6/1	Dobson, Billy - 14	430.94
5	5	JOVIAN	12/1	Long, Chris - 10	427.94
8	8	DRAWING DRAGONS	25/1	Sowers, Mcgwire - 6	413.77

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by TrackMaster Greg at Dayton Raceway

P#	PP	HORSE NAME	M/L	DRIVER - WIN%	POINTS
RACE 12
1	1	BELLA BUTTON N	3/1	Noble, Dan - 16	523.59
7	7	SKYWAY KON MAN	9/2	Smith, Jeremy - 23	511.58
5	5	SHAKE IT MARY	7/1	Smith, Tyler - 12	510.63
6	6	MAGICAL MUSCLE MAN	5/2	Miller, Brett - 13	499.00
3	3	MASCULINE HILL	10/1	Hanners, Luke - 8	475.36
4	4	BEAST OF DELAWARE	10/1	Smith, Trevor - 6	461.37
2	2	KIWI PRES	7/1	Melloy, Pat Jr - 12	459.65
10	10	KENOGAMI COCO	15/1	Kauffman, Kayne - 7	457.56
8	8	ROBIN BANKS	15/1	Hanners, Austin - 6	453.53
9	9	DG'S CAVIAR	12/1	Widger, Sam - 11	368.77

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by TrackMaster Greg at Flamboro Downs

P#	PP	HORSE NAME	M/L	DRIVER - WIN%	POINTS
RACE 9
4	4	HALO ITS HEAVEN	6/1	Byron, Stephen R - 7	472.13
3	3	ESQUIRE	5/2	Kelly, Colin - 20	470.74
1	1	PRINCE OF SUSSEX	2/1	Henry, Travis J - 19	465.28
5	5	BASTIANO	3/1	Desroche, Ryan P - 8	434.81
6	6	PETRO ANGEL	10/1	Fillion, Samuel - 9	413.66
7	7	BEGUIN DUGOUTIER F	8/1	Lareau, Stephane - 0	412.78
2	2	RANGER ROB	4/1	Harris, J Bradley - 14	410.61

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[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Saratoga Harness

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 4 - Post: 6:00 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 80 - Purse:$9000 - $12,500 CLAIMING ALLOWANCE SARATOGA

CONSORTIUM CHOICES
	# 1 BUNGALOW BILL N 7/5
# 3 HERRICKROOSEVELT N 7/2
# 2 MENLO PARK 9/2

BUNGALOW BILL N will have you running to the cashier's window in this event. His 81 average has this gelding among the best TrackMaster Speed Ratings for this race. Loved this gelding's last race. Ran a strong 78 speed rating. Major contender. More wins than you would expect have been earned by interesting entrants lining up behind the 1 position at Saratoga Harness. HERRICKROOSEVELT N - Can't pass over based on speed figures which have been outstanding (82 avg) lately. It's sometimes tricky to consider on class alone, but this gelding has among the best class figures of the field. MENLO PARK - Starters win from this position at Saratoga Harness with better than average regularity, suggesting this excellent wager. If performance in the last contest is any indication, this harness racer will have a very formidable shot for this one. High last race speed fig.

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[ConleyPicks]

TALKING HORSES
AQUEDUCT
Saturday November 18, 2023

Andy Serling
Race 1 7 - 6 - 9 - 2
Race 2 2 - 1 - 4 - 3
Race 3 4 - 5 - 6 - 3
Race 4 4 - 3 - 6 - 2
Race 5 3 - 4 - 1 - 9
Race 6 4 - 11 - 3 - 10
Race 7 1 - 5 - 3 - 7
Race 8 9 - 2 - 8 - 4
Race 9 2 - 6 - 4 - 11
Race 10 5 - 4 - 1 - 9

Sara Elbadwi
Race 1 9 - 4 - 6 - 7
Race 2 4 - 2 - 1 - 6
Race 3 5 - 1A - 4 - 6
Race 4 6 - 3 - 2 - 1
Race 5 8 - 3 - 4 - 1
Race 6 9 - 7 - 11 - 4
Race 7 5 - 3 - 1 - 6
Race 8 8 - 7 - 3 - 9
Race 9 10 - 2 - 11 - 4
Race 10 9 - 4 - 5 - 2

[ConleyPicks]

Picks & Plays for Saturday, November 18
by David Aragona

AQUEDUCT

Visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.

PICKS

Race 1: 7 - 9 - 6 - 3
Race 2: 2 - 1 - 4 - 6
Race 3: 6 - 5 - 1A - 7
Race 4: 3 - 6 - 2 - 7
Race 5: 1 - 3 - 9 - 4
Race 6: 4 - 10 - 11 - 5
Race 7: 1 - 5 - 3 - 2
Race 8: 2 - 8 - 9 - 5
Race 9: 2 - 6 - 4 - 11
Race 10: 8 - 4 - 9 - 5

FAIR VALUE PLAYS
(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)


RACE 3

Dot’s Dollar (#5) is clearly the horse to beat he continues to slide down the class ladder. He was a voided claim last time after being involved in a spill, having to basically jump over a fallen horse in front of him. He was eased after that, so I won’t hold the result against him. However, there are still questions to be answered as his form was falling apart even prior to that race. Linda Rice is quick to cut ties with a horse who is very likely to get claimed in this spot. He’s dangerous, but is hard to trust at a short price. I’m less thrilled with Mr Phil (#4), could also attract support here as he makes his first start off the claim for Rudy Rodriguez. At least he took a step in the right direction last time, but he was easily beaten by a horse who was coming out of cheaper races. There’s other speed signed on, so he’s unlikely to get his preferred trip, especially given the presence of Chateau (#7), who is also now in the Rudy Rodriguez barn. I think there are a couple of interesting alternatives. My top pick is Pogi (#6), who makes his first start off the claim for Pat Reynolds. He had been in good form for his prior connections, running his only poor race when stretched out to two turns coming back on short rest. He was pretty game to contest the pace and continue battling on last time in a race that otherwise fell apart and went to closers. I also liked his previous dirt sprint back in August at Monmouth, where he was second to the classy Speaking. This apprentice has to work out a trip, but at least he’s drawn towards the outside.

Fair Value:
#6 POGI, at 3-1 or greater


RACE 5

I’m not strongly against Integration (#3), who has looked like a turf horse with serious talent through his first couple of starts. He drew away from the field with steady, powerful strides on debut, and was unfazed by the big step up in class in the Virginia Derby last time, overhauling heavy favorite Program Trading. A repeat of that performance, for which he earned a field-best 121 TimeformUS Speed Figure, makes him awfully tough to beat. Yet he does have to take his show on the road, and he’s returning from a minor layoff. Chad Brown has entered three alternatives, and they all have something to prove. The most intriguing of that trio might be Equitize (#4), who was visually impressive on debut at Tampa Bay Downs all the way back in March. He’s now trying a similar class hike to the one the favorite pulled off at Colonial, but he’s attempting to do it off an 8-month layoff. This $606k Tattersalls purchase has a regal pedigree, by Kingman out of a three-quarter sister to Arc de Triomphe winner Waldgeist. Brown is obviously expecting a big effort for him to place him so ambitiously, but I would still demand a bigger price than we’re likely to get. Classic Catch (#9) is a horse that I’ve been waiting to see get on the turf after he trained so well over the grass this summer at Saratoga. He really doesn’t have an abundance of turf pedigree, but Todd Pletcher has been anxious to get him on this surface. He fits here from a class standpoint, but it’s still a tall order to try a new surface in such an ambitious spot. If I’m going to take a shot against the favorite, I want to do it with a price, and Freedom Trail (#1) figures to offer some value at anything close to his 8-1 morning line. He was no match for the best 3-year-olds in the division earlier this year, but he’s been subtly improving through recent starts. He didn’t seem to appreciate a marathon distance over the Delaware turf two back, but he really appreciated cutting back and taking the blinkers off last time. He also may have appreciated a return to the Aqueduct turf course, where he had so much success in the fall of his 2-year-old season. He traveled much more kindly, while still in the bridle, in that last race, and really produced a nice kick once Jose Ortiz set him down in the stretch. He almost caught Exact Estimate, who returned to finish a good second against a tough field in the Artie Schiller last weekend. I like the rail draw, and he might fly under the radar for John Terranova.

Fair Value:
#1 FREEDOM TRAIL, at 4-1 or greater


RACE 6

It’s hard to know exactly how the public will approach this seemingly wide open N1X allowance event. Among those who figure to be short prices, the one that I don’t want is So High (#7), who towers over the field on speed figures. However, he earned those numbers in graded stakes races over marathon distances where he was able to use his early speed as a weapon. That same strategy isn’t going to work here going shorter, and he’s just not as effective coming from off the pace. I think the horse to beat is Barrage (#10), who held his own against some tough rivals in the Ashley T. Cole last time. He was never really in the hunt to win the race, but he was finishing with good interest in a race that was dominated by horses with forward position. He had only faced New York-breds prior to that, but he has steadily been improving under Ray Handal’s care, and will be tough here if able to repeat the 117 TimeformUS Speed Figure he earned two back. I’m not sure what to do with Cyber Ninja (#11), who clearly has the most upside of the main contenders. This 3-year-old has been improving since getting back on turf in his last couple of starts. He just lacks any early speed, and Jose Ortiz rides him in a way that requires the horse to make up a ton of ground in the stretch. He wasn’t able to do that last time against a tougher field going 1 3/8 miles, and I’m not confident that less distance necessarily benefits him. The good news is that he might get some more pace ahead of him. My top pick is Danzigwiththestars (#4). He’s obviously had plenty of chances at this level, but now he’s switching into the barn of Richard Dutrow, who has been a horseplayer’s friend since returning to training this year. This situation won’t last forever but his horses have been consistently running well and going off at overlaid prices in recent months. This horse hasn’t yet finished on the board this year, but he ran deceptively well on June 17 after a wide trip and then caught a tough field at Saratoga in August. He seemingly took a step backwards last time, but he got the wrong trip, always out of position in a race dominated up front. Now he picks up Irad Ortiz off the short layoff.

Fair Value:
#4 DANZIGWITHTHESTARS, at 5-2 or greater


RACE 7

I’ll be interested to see how the public approaches Cara’s Time (#3), who stands out on speed figures after finishing first and second in her last two attempts at this New York-bred stakes level. However, she’s gotten very favorable setups in both of those races, and now cuts back in a race that is likely to feature a much more taxing pace scenario. She also goes out for lower-profile connections, who don’t typically take this much money. I’m similarly skeptical of Soloshot (#6), who has enjoyed moderate paces in both of her wins, and now has to tangle with Cara’s Time on the front end. Among the likely speeds, I actually prefer Ashburn Alley (#7), who was heavily touted on debut and won despite failing to change leads in the stretch. She’s drawn well outside as she switches into the Tom Morley barn. Yet I think the horse that they all have to beat is Tricky Temper (#5). She ran deceptively well in the Matron two back behind Jody’s Pride, who returned to finish a strong second in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies. Tricky Temper was pinned against the rail coming around the far turn that day, sustaining multiple bumps from a rival before kicking on late. She has the right running style for this race, and gets a rider upgrade to Irad Ortiz. My top pick is My Shea D Lady (#1), who I’m hoping is just a better price. I think her chances of winning are similar to those of the Englehart runner, and her form is a little less obvious. She ran quite well on debut, closing past a few rivals before drawing away with authority. She was hardly disgraced when beaten by two talented rivals in the Seeking the Ante, and then might have been too aggressive with the blinkers added last time. She also may not have appreciated a sloppy track that day, just going up and down in the late stages. Now the blinkers come off, and she figures to rally from just off the pace under Jose Ortiz.

Fair Value:
#1 MY SHEA D LADY, at 5-2 or greater


RACE 8

The only horse in here with turf route experience is Positive Carry (#4), so I suppose she merits a long look on that basis alone. Yet I don’t love the race she participated in on debut at Saratoga, which just hasn’t produced runbacks suggesting it was as strong as it appeared at the time. She did have to alter course in the stretch of the Selima last time, but I still would have liked to see her finish off the race better. Between the Chad Brown duo, I prefer first time starter Spendalot (#8). This full-sister to multiple turf stakes winner Consumer Spending was training well in Saratoga and is one of many who has been entered for turf and scratched before. She picks up Irad for the debut and looks live. Though, these types do tend to get overbet for Chad Brown, as his ROI with debuting turf runners don’t justify the short prices they routinely go off at. Another first time starter with a great pedigree for turf is Spinning Class (#12), but she’s stuck in the far outside post position with an apprentice aboard. I could use her if she’s a big price. Many runners in this field are switching to turf for the first time. Magic Eight Ball (#5) doesn’t have much pedigree, but her connections have wanted to get her on grass, and she looks like one that should take to it in her replays. Yet I’m most interested in Bill Mott’s pair of fillies switching surfaces. Waskesiu (#9) has run fine on the dirt, but her pedigree does lean more towards grass. Her dam was a turf winner, and she’s a half-sister to turf stakes-placed Collective Force. American Pharoah is a solid turf sire, and she looks like a lot of his progeny that should have the versatility to transition to grass. Yet my top pick is the bigger price of the two Motts. Dancing Dean (#2) made her debut on dirt at Saratoga for Horacio De Paz and was never seriously involved. She lacked early speed and just stayed on at one pace. She now switches to Bill Mott, who obviously wants to get her on the turf. He even scratched her out off the turf race on multiple occasions this fall. The dam was more of a dirt horse, but she has produced two turf winners from three foals to try it, and the one who didn’t win on turf earned a career-best 92 Beyer on it. Watching her debut, she has a loping stride with a higher stepping action, suggesting that she’s a horse who will take to the grass. She also seems like a horse that really wants this distance, and she figures to get pace ahead of her.

Fair Value:
#2 DANCING DEAN, at 8-1 or greater


RACE 9

I don’t have a major knock against likely favorite Our Shot (#4), who has run well in all of his turf sprint efforts. He’s been in great form this season, winning a highly competitive allowance race at Saratoga this summer before just missing in the Harvey Pack. He then put in another strong effort in defeat last time at Keeneland, closing well behind Arzak in a fast race. He has the versatility to adapt to any kind of race flow, and he drew well in this large field. The only drawback is that his merits are so obvious and he’s likely to be a short price, especially with Irad Ortiz aboard. Thin White Duke (#11) finished just ahead of the favorite in the Harvey Pack, also beating eventual Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint runner-up Big Invasion. He is another who has been in fantastic form recently, appearing to thrive on a busy schedule since the summertime. He just didn’t draw as well and may have to overcome a wide trip from this post position. Nothing Better (#6) won this race last year and merits strong consideration once again. He was running some of the fastest speed figures in this field through the end of last season into the first half of 2023. He was just a little overmatched in the Grade 1 Jaipur and then was the victim of a torrid duel in the Wolf Hill at Monmouth. His last race was a step in the right direction, and he figures to get another aggressive ride here. Though there is other pace in the race, drawn on both sides of him. My top pick is Alogon (#2). He looks a little inconsistent at first glance, but he had a valid excuse in the Parx Dash, where he didn’t get a great trip over a turf course that some horses don’t appreciate. He bounced back in a big way in the Da Hoss, just barely losing to eventual Breeders’ Cup winner Nobals. He stayed in the Belmont Turf Sprint last time even when it was rained off the turf, and actually ran very well considering that he previously was unable to produce his best form on the dirt. That effort just confirms that he’s thriving right now, and he gets back into an ideal spot here. He drew a perfect post position and has the tactical speed to work out the right trip from just off the pace. I also don’t mind the rider upgrade to a local jockey in Manny Franco.

Fair Value:
#2 ALOGON, at 7-2 or greater


RACE 10

This finale looks totally wide open. I suppose She’s Awesome (#5) will be a clear favorite off her recent victory, since she’s at least coming off a victory on dirt in a race where a few others appear to be off their best form. Yet she’s first off the claim for Linda Rice in a complicated race, so I’m just concerned that she’s going to be an underlay as the obvious choice. Even though she’s not really a winning type, I actually think Icy Reply (#4) might be the horse to beat. She’s run plenty of competitive races at this level and appears to be back in top form after finishing second in each of her last two starts. She closed well two back on a day that was favoring speed, and last time she battled the superior Mursal all the way to the wire in a tougher spot than this. Proud Foot (#9) is just a trainer switch play, as she makes her first start off the claim for Richard Dutrow. She’s gone off form recently, but she was racing on a dead rail two back, so the outlook isn’t as dismal as it may seem. Yet this is a race where I want to do some price shopping for my top pick. Meraviglioso (#8) may get somewhat ignored after getting claimed by low-profile connections. Yet she’s run plenty of races this year that give her a real chance at this level. Most of those came prior to the summer, but she had excuses through the middle of the season. She caught a very tough field in an allowance race two back at Saratoga, and was glued to the rail in a race that featured more of an outside flow. I though she took a step in the right direction last time, and I like the confident move up in class for the new barn. She’s also shown the ability to rally from behind in a race that is almost assured to feature an honest pace.

Fair Value:
#8 MERAVIGLIOSO, at 7-1 or greater

[ConleyPicks]

JOE KRISTUFEK
EXPERT SELECTIONS

CHURCHILL DOWNS

Churchill Downs, Fair Grounds and Twin Spires racing analyst Joe Kristufek began his career in his native Chicago, climbing the ladder at the local racing venues. The 1989 rivalry between Kentucky Derby winner Sunday Silence and his nemesis Easy Goer got Joe hooked on horse racing. A self-proclaimed 'horse racing ambassador', Joe's industry experience spans from Dubai to Hong Kong to more than 35 tracks across North America.



Saturday, November 18, 2023
Double-check listed numbers against program numbers before wagering. Selections subject to change on race day due to scratches, off the turf, etc. For the most up to the minute information, tune in to 'Churchill Downs Today' presented by twinspires.com one hour before first post every racing day, watch the pre-race paddock shows and follow Joe on Twitter @JoeyDaKRacing.



RACE 1
1:00 PM
Selections: 7-6/1-4-3-2
7 TAP ANCHOR Wide trip may have cost him in narrow defeat in last
6 WHO'S SNOW TROUBLE 3rd in what turned out to be a tough maiden $30K claimer last out
1 PERSUADE Half to Edgemont Road could be a sneaky first timer

RACE 2
1:30 PM
Selections: 6-1-4/7-2
6 HOPE OVER FEAR On a roll of late; hopeful form converts to fast dirt
1 JUMP INTO THE FIRE Has wired tougher; can put them to sleep on the front end
4 KEEN CONTENDER Lost 22 in a row before winning last three

RACE 3
2:00 PM
Selections: 6-9-7-4
6 BARNABY Half to Big Bad Diva; solid works & logical placement
9 STUNNEM Good as any on paper, but won't offer much value
7 EXTRA HALO Cuts back turf to dirt; tactical speed

RACE 4
2:30 PM
Selections: 7-3-10-8-11/12-2-4
7 LAUGHINALLTHEWAY Breeder bought him back & gets aggressive on debut
3 LOBO SALVAJE Very respectable 3rd on debut; likely flies under the radar
10 DELTA DELTA Newly turned gelding drops in with blinkers on off the bench

RACE 5
3:01 PM
Selections: 8-2-/14
8 TALKIN' CASH Speed is well drawn vs. a field he should be able to handle
2 DOUBLE CLUTCH Trains well on dirt & may have found his niche sprinting
14 IMMORTALIZATION Returns from a long layoff; has run some decent races on dirt

RACE 6
3:31 PM
Selections: 7-1-2-4-5-6-3
7 PUCKERED Broke maiden in a public workout last out; claim earned class hike
1 ANNA'S WISH Won for fun with blinkers on, but takes them back off for this
2 ABOVE THE SUN Won quite nicely around two turns on dirt last out; others may have upside

RACE 7
4:01 PM
Selections: 12-10-9/2-5-3-1
12 HOPE MISSION Walsh lures Tyler to ride well-bred filly with forward works
10 TRIAL Works are better than they look; watch tote clues
9 FAMTOMAH Has displayed finishing punch in works; must respect the team

RACE 8
4:33 PM
Selections: 2/4-9-6/3
2 SHERIFF RONNIE Held his own against solid company in Maryland dirt sprints
4 CONCEPT Waiver claiming provision; Steve tabs Luis
9 MAGNIFICENT MILE Repeat of last two efforts would make him a contender here

RACE 9 — ABSTAIN (Joe has Johny's Fireball with Brilliant Racing)
5:05 PM
Selections:

RACE 10
5:35 PM
Selections: 2/4-9-6/3

RACE 11
6:05 PM
Selections: 2/4-9-6/3

[ConleyPicks]

SCOTT SHAPIRO
EXPERT SELECTIONS

CHURCHILL DOWNS

Scott Shapiro is the Senior Racing Analyst for Churchill Downs and the Kentucky Derby. He fell in love with thoroughbred racing when his father took him to Garden State Park in 1985 to see Kentucky Derby winner Spend A Buck race in the Jersey Derby instead of the Preakness Stakes. Scott graduated from the University of Wisconsin in 1996 and is an avid NFL and PGA fan. His favorite horses are A.P. Indy, Fly So Free, Captain Bodgit, Victory Gallop, and Ghostzapper.



November 18, 2023
Double-check listed numbers against program numbers before wagering. Selections subject to change on race day due to scratches, off the turf, etc. For the most up to the minute information follow Scott on Twitter @ScottShap34.



RACE 1
1:00 PM
Selections: 4-6-3-7-5
4 MR BIG STUFF Spotted realistically on debut; attracts Gaffalione
6 WHO'S SNOW TROUBLE Holds experience edge vs this group, but has lacked excuses thus far
3 PLEASANT DESTINY Debuts for barn that has won w/ 3 of last 9 at CD

RACE 2
1:30 PM
Selections: 2-6-1-4-7
2 LA TOURISTA Moves from low % barn to North America's all-time leading trainer
6 HOPE OVER FEAR Ships in from Mid-Atlantic in search of 4th consecutive win
1 JUMP INTO THE FIRE Has races that crush these, but drop in for $20K off bench concerns

RACE 3
2:00 PM
Selections: 8-9/7-1
8 GREAT RICHIE M Drops into MCL ranks for barn on a great roll in 2023
9 STUNNEM Moves up slightly in class in 1st start off claim for Cano
7 EXTRA HALO Cuts back & tries dirt for first time for Granitz

RACE 4
2:30 PM
Selections: 2-8-12-7-11-4
2 MY UNCLE FRANK Cuts back to sprint for initial time; gets favorable setup
8 CHITWOOD Was put away by 23-1 shot in last, but should get another favorable trip
12 PACIFIC STATES Shook off rust in last; benefits from move to outside post

RACE 5
3:01 PM
Selections: 8-14-9-4
8 TALKIN' CASH Was down on inside on 10/15 when outside was place to be
14 IMMORTALIZATION Draws in off AE list; makes 1st start since last September
9 ZARTOWNIS Moves back to dirt for 1st time since runner-up effort on 7/15

RACE 6
3:31 PM
Selections: 2-7-6-5-4
2 ABOVE THE SUN Ran down speed in maiden score; gets better setup today
7 PUCKERED Takes on winners for initial time in 1st try off claim for Joseph
6 ROCK STAR DOCTOR Attracts hot riding Saez in first start vs winners

RACE 7
4:01 PM
Selections: 10-2-3-5-9-12
10 TRIAL Out of strong female family; has been working great leading up to debut
2 HOW SOON IS NOW Got off to poor start & swung wide vs live MSW group on 9/27
3 BEDAZZLE 'EM Pricey daughter of American Pharoah makes 2nd start for Engler

RACE 8
4:33 PM
Selections: 4-9-10-6
4 CONCEPT Makes 1st start since mid-April; gate-to-wire under Saez
9 MAGNIFICENT MILE Has had tons of chances & lone victory came vs very soft bunch
10 LIBERTANGO Drops to lowest level of career; moves back to dirt for 'Cat Man'

RACE 9
5:05 PM
Selections: 2-6-13-5
2 JOHNY'S FIREBALL Has done little wrong since being claimed by Casse in June
6 STRONG QUALITY Has speed to control tempo & proven form over dirt in past
13 THE REDS Got beat a head by runner that came back to win nicely on Wed

RACE 10
5:35 PM
Selections: 9-3-7-1-6
9 HOT AND SULTRY Took on some of best in division before break; stalks & pounces
3 HIDDEN CONNECTION Merits favoritism based on class/recent efforts, but 0 for 7 in '23
7 FALCONET Toss last where she failed to get involved early; cuts back for TAP

RACE 11
6:05 PM
Selections: 11-2-7/6-8
11 SONHADOR Debuts for barn that has positive ROI w/ 2YO FTS MSW runners
2 THE J FACTOR Out of mare that earned $245K & won her first two starts
7 PRETTY SONG Has reportedly been working lights out leading into debut

[ConleyPicks]

By Brad Free
BEST BET: Neon Lights (3rd race)

Del mar

First Race
1. Princess Midnight 2. Adelie 3. Inventing Anna
Three-time runner-up PRINCESS MIDNIGHT looks tough in this maiden-50 turf mile; both her starts since returning from a layoff were
strong. She finished behind a next-out winner over the Del Mar turf in her comeback, then did the dirty work setting the pace next out at
Santa Anita only to get nailed by a deep closer. In a field with less speed, 'MIDNIGHT can win with a front-running/pressing trip.
ADELIE is an 11-start maiden whose DMR maiden-claiming starts in summer produced a pair of closing thirds. Overmatched last out in a
maiden special-weight, ADELIE returns to maiden-claiming and will roll late under new rider Juan Hernandez. He and trainer Phil
D'Amato teamed to win 4 of their last 8 maiden turf routes. INVENTING ANNA makes her California debut while dropping into a
maiden-claiming race for the first time in her ninth start. The uncertainty is distance; two turns is a long way for the sprinter.

Second Race
1. Royal Slipper 2. Nothing Like You 3. Tambo
A dominating maiden by ROYAL SLIPPER at Keeneland, and sharp work over the DMR surface, stamps the second-start 2yo filly a
possible odds-on favorite in this sprint stakes. Full sibling to G1 winner Bast, ROYAL SLIPPER won her debut by nearly five lengths and
trained super since including a sharp five-furlong work here last weekend. Fast filly on her game, speed of the field, likely winner, low
odds. The improving NOTHING LIKE YOU shortens to seven furlongs off a maiden romp at a mile. Though she faced only four rivals,
the win was flattered when the two-three finishers won maiden races next out. 'LIKE YOU will roll late, a style that would only be
advantageous if the top choice gets unexpected pace pressure. TAMBO, runner-up in a similar sprint stake at SA, fired all three dirt starts.
Her numbers are creeping up, she finished more than three lengths clear of third last out. HALONE, maiden stablemate to NOTHING
LIKE YOU, was a late supplement. This seems an ambitious spot for a second-start maiden who lost her debut by more than 14 lengths,
but she did not have a fair shot after getting banged around and losing position at the start. Upset chance second time out.

Third Race
1. Neon Lights 2. Johnny Drama 3. Anniversaire d'Or
NEON LIGHTS stands out off a solid third in a similar maiden turf sprint during the DMR summer meet and runner-up finish last out in
which he was best. He was shuffled early, saved ground, was blocked into the lane, angled outside, finished fast and missed by only a
length. He would have won with a clean trip. He finished in front of four of his six rivals in this race, and gets a rider switch to Flavien
Prat. JOHNNY DRAMA merits an upset chance based on his better-than-looked tough-trip fifth on the DMR turf in summer and pacecompromised last-place finish his most recent start at SA. He pressed a blazing pace, the fractions took their toll on all the front-runners,
the race was dominated by closers. JOHNNY DRAMA looms an upset candidate; he could start at double digits even in this small field.
ANNIVERSAIRE D'OR is a well-bred first-time starter with a solid work pattern. Sired by Bolt d'Oro, his dam was a multiple turf stakes
winner who produced turf stakes winner Master Merion. PETCOFF will rally from behind, first-time Umberto Rispoli.

Fourth Race
1. Super Enticing 2. Asian Matriarch 3. She's My Niece
Fourth against winners last out, SUPER ENTICING returns to maiden-claiming and to the DMR track on which she finished a creditable
second in summer. Bred to run two turns, rider switch to Prat, likely winner if she can handle stablemate ASIAN MATRIARCH. The
latter was on her way to victory last out in a maiden-32, but she ducked out in the stretch and unseated her rider. 'MATRIARCH was
reclaimed by Peter Miller, she can stay two turns, and she ran well over the DMR track in summer. SHE'S MY NIECE, runner-up both
previous routes, drops in for a claim tag for the first time in the eighth start of her career.

Fifth Race
1. Kid Azteca 2. For A Laugh 3. Low Expectations
KID AZTECA is the fastest and best horse in this claiming turf mile for 3yos; the first-time gelding should be tough at a short price. He
ran okay while overmatched in a pair of graded races during the DMR summer meet, he was overmatched again last out in a N2X vs. older,
and now drops to age-restricted claiming. His speed figures tower over the field. FOR A LAUGH also drops, first-time claim tag, after
okay midpack N1X finishes in summer. He has no speed whatsoever, but will rally late. LOW EXPECTATIONS figures for a share off
his okay fourth two back on turf, while TOM AND JAZZY is speed, stretching out from sprints. He has an upset chance if he can avoid a
duel with front-runner MARKS HIP.

Sixth Race
1. Jarama 2. Billy Joe Shaver 3. Stay On the Fence
The runner-up debut by JARAMA was validated when winner Magic Spoon returned to win a stakes race. JARAMA pressed/set a fast
pace in his debut, put away his pace rivals, opened up and got collared. He ran a winning race. He can be long gone second out with a
front-running or pace-pressing trip. BILLY JOE SHAVER looms an upset candidate despite finishing last by more than 37 lengths in his
debut. He broke slow, raced greenly and was eased. But he worked fast since, looked good in a team gate drill Nov. 6 (viewed online), and
is likely to move forward second time out. STAY ON THE FENCE was in too tough vs. Cal-bred stakes rivals last out; he hit the board
his three previous starts in maiden races.

Seventh Race
1. Double Jab 2. Gypsy Tears 3. Book Smart
Lightly raced DOUBLE JAB gets the call in this Cal-bred turf sprint, his first since a dominating maiden win on this course in summer. He
won by more than three with a pressing trip, he figures for the same trip here. He was scheduled to run Sept. 30 in an allowance turf sprint
at Santa Anita, but the turf race was moved to dirt and he scratched. This is the first start in three months for 'JAB, who runs well fresh and
has upside in just the fourth start of his career. GYPSY TEARS missed by a neck last out to Grazed, who came right back to win a highly
N1X against open company (not restricted to Cal-breds). BOOK SMART would crush if this race was dirt. He trounced Cal-breds on the
main track six days ago with a career-high 94 Beyer. The challenge is to repeat the performance wheeling back in six days and switching
surfaces.

Eighth Race
1. The Chosen Vron 2. Big City Lights 3. Fast Draw Munnings
THE CHOSEN VRON returns to state-bred stakes after meeting his match in the Breeders' Cup Sprint two weeks ago. He finished fifth.
'VRON previously won eight consecutive stakes including this seven-furlong Cal-bred stakes a year ago. Unless he regresses wheeling
back on short notice, he should be tough. 'VRON must catch comeback stakes-winning speedster BIG CITY LIGHTS, who has trained
well for his first start since January. A front-runner who runs fresh (debut winner, comeback stakes winner in 2020), 'LIGHTS has more
tactical speed than the favorite and looms a potential upsetter. On the other hand, 'LIGHTS finished second to 'VRON all three times they
met. FAST DRAW MUNNINGS shortens in distance following a runner-up finish in a two-turn Cal-bred stakes at Los Alamitos. This
field has pace to flatter his closing kick; look for 'MUNNINGS late. NONE ABOVE THE LAW is a stakes winner on the DMR dirt; he
won a seven-furlong stakes for Cal-bred 3yos two summers ago. Flavien Prat worked 'LAW Sunday morning, and will ride him.

Ninth Race
1. Give Me the Lute 2. Hot Box 3. Silardi
Veteran stakes winner GIVE ME THE LUTE seeks his third straight turf-sprint claiming win after a pair of wins at SA. The 8-for-27
'LUTE has speed but also is effective from slightly off the pace. That could be the trip he gets in this speed-filled lineup. Trainer George
Papaprodromou is 10-for-19 with turf-sprint favorites the past five years according to Formulator, including both recent wins by 'LUTE.
HOT BOX has an upset chance first start since a pair of excusable fifths during the summer meet. He broke through the gate and was wide
Aug. 6; he was overmatched and had trouble Sept. 10. He drops to $25k claiming for his first start in two months, and should be a pace
factor. SILARDI returns from the East Coast in sharp form. A six-time winner, he wired a N1X turf sprint at DMR in autumn 2021 and
adds more speed to the field. WESTWARD LOOK dueled and cracked both recent starts, but now moves to an outside post with a rider
switch that suggests he might take back off the pace. PERFECTIONISTIC is rounding back into form and will be rolling late in a race
likely to unfold at a fast pace

[ConleyPicks]

Keeneland Select Pick of the Day | November 18, 2023
Nov. 16, 2023

Race 10 at Churchill Downs | Saturday November 18 | Post Time 5:35 PM Eastern

Chilukki Stakes – Grade 3 | Purse $300,000 | One Mile |Fillies and Mares, Three Year Olds and Upward


The 5 to 2 morning line favorite is Hidden Connection (3) and the 7 to 2 second choice in starting odds is Hot and Sultry (9), and perhaps they will be lower odds than the other seven near post time, but NEITHER are standouts by any means and they might just be a bit vulnerable as favorites. Hidden Connection has NO WINS this year in seven races, and four second place finishes. I can understand why she might be the favorite, as she lost to recent Breeders’ Cup Distaff winner Idiomatic in June, but she was fifth in that race and never threatened. She was second behind Search Results when last seen in September, here at Churchill Downs in the Locust Grove stakes, but the Search Results ran poorly in the Breeders’ Cup. The last time Hidden Connection won a race was last December, and it was an allowance race at that. She certainly could be part of the exacta or trifecta but she’s not as probable a win contender as others.

Similarly, Hot and Sultry (9) has won just once in four races this year, and that win came at six furlongs. She was last seen finishing fourth in May behind Matareya, Wicked Halo (who won a stakes last weekend) and recent Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint winner Goodnight Olive, but that’s hardly a reason she is a strong win contender here.

Instead, I’m starting with a horse who LOVES TO WIN, Oeuvre (4), who has won 13 of 16 races this year and last, on turf, on dirt, and at four different tracks. Her most recent effort was at a mile on turf around two-turns at Keeneland so this one turn mile on dirt is no problem, and she can win on the lead from the start or from off the pace. Trainer Block has an excellent record when switching surfaces, 20 for 71 over the lasts three years, and the 104 Equibase Speed Figure Oeuvre earned winning the last time she ran on dirt, in July, stacks up well with horses at lower odds than her 5 to 1 morning line. Jockey Loveberry has been aboard for six of her last eight wins, including three on dirt, and comparing her desire to win, and her physical condition, to many in here, Oeuvre has to be considered more strongly than many.

Nostalgic (1) is the other horse with the bulk of the probability to win. She won the Gazelle Stakes in New York in the spring of last year to qualify for the Kentucky Oaks but managed only a 10th place effort. She preceded to lose five in a row over the rest of 2022 but one of those efforts, in November of 2022, was notable as she missed by a neck in the Turnback the Alarm Stakes in a then career-best effort. Rested EIGHT months until this past July, Nostalgic missed by a neck with a career-best 104 Equibase speed Figure, then repeated that figure and won one month later, flattered by the runner-up winning her next start. That second effort also earned a 104 figure and it must be noted BOTH were at the same one mile trip as the Chilukki Stakes. Off the win, Nostalgic ran in the mile and one-eighth (two-turn) Beldame stakes, finishing third behind two horses at the top of the division. Winner Randomized finished second behind Idiomatic in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff two weeks ago and runner-up A Mo Reay was going to run in that race until an injury put her on the sidelines. Cutting back from two-turns to what appears to be her best distance, if Nostalgic repeats either of her efforts from July or August, she has a strong chance to win this race.

Another contender, but not as strong as the top two, is Falconet (7), who beat Hidden Connection in the Groupie Doll stakes at this distance in August, before a poor seventh of nine finish in the Locust Grove. The Groupie Doll effort came off a layoff similar to the one she’s returning from today, and she gets top jockey Saez riding for Pletcher. With nine first or second place finishes in 11 races excluding the Locust Grove, this filly may have what it takes to compete with her best effort.

Additionally, She Can’t Sing (5) can be used on some exacta tickets in the second position. She won this race last year at 7 to 2 odds when leading from start to finish. Two months prior she finished third on turf in a stakes and having been off three months following a fourth place effort on turf, her pattern is a bit similar, except it must be noted last year’s Chilukki field only had six horses and this has nine and that She Can’t Sing has failed to win, or to come close to winning, in five races since her victory one year ago.

Bets:

Win: Both Oeuvre (4) and Nostalgic (1) should be considered for win bets at odds of 5 to 2 or more.

Exactas:

Oeuvre (4) and Nostalgic (1) over Oeuvre (4) and Nostalgic (1), Hidden Connection (3), She Can’t Sing (5), Falconet (7), Hot and Sultry (9)

Trifectas:

Oeuvre (4) and Nostalgic (1) over Oeuvre (4) and Nostalgic (1), Hidden Connection (3), She Can’t Sing (5), Falconet (7), Hot and Sultry (9) over Oeuvre (4) and Nostalgic (1), Hidden Connection (3), She Can’t Sing (5), Falconet (7), Hot and Sultry (9)

[ConleyPicks]

Aqueduct Tip Sheet - November 18
Nov. 17, 2023

Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 70% of the time at this track.

RACE #1 $70,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 12:50 PM ET

BEST BET: #9 SIX FORTYFIVE

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 6-1 9 Six Fortyfive M Franco
PLACE 5-2 6 Big Prankster J Rosario
SHOW 5-1 5 Nano Man K Davis
WILD CARD 30-1 10 Bali Amour R Mitchell

ALTERNATE 1 6-1 7 V Lo J Alvarado
ALTERNATE 2 10-1 4 Elysian Meadows J Lezcano

* EXACTA: 9-6 BOX, 6-5 BOX, 5-10 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 5/6/9 BOX, 5/6/10 BOX


RACE #2 $75,000 ALLOWANCE
1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 1:20 PM ET

BEST BET: #4 KID BILLY

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 3-1 4 Kid Billy J Alvarado
PLACE 5-2 1 Engineer Empire M Franco
SHOW 2-1 2 Quick to Accuse K Carmouche
WILD CARD 12-1 7 Leo and Royal J L Ortiz

ALTERNATE 1 8-1 6 Boys Code J A Davis
ALTERNATE 2 15-1 5 Supreme Being D Haddock

* EXACTA: 4-1 BOX, 1-2 BOX, 2-7 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/4 BOX, 1/2/7 BOX


RACE #3 $25,000 CLAIMING
6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 1:50 PM ET

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 5-1 1A Cajun Casanova I Castillo
PLACE 8-1 8 Mi Tres Por Ciento D Davis
SHOW 5-1 6 Pogi E Ruiz
WILD CARD 2-1 5 Dots Dollar J L Ortiz

ALTERNATE 1 5-1 1 Horn of Plenty I Ortiz Jr.
ALTERNATE 2 4-1 4 Mr Phil J A Gomez

* EXACTA: 1-8 BOX, 8-6 BOX, 6-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/6/8 BOX, 5/6/8 BOX


RACE #4 $100,000 STAKES
6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:19 PM ET

** BONUS COMMENTARY ** $100,000 NOTEBOOK STAKES

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 5-2 6 Works for Me I Ortiz Jr.
PLACE 2-1 3 Aggelos the Great M Franco
SHOW 10-1 7 Perliano J Rosario
WILD CARD 12-1 1 Ice the Kicker J Alvarado

ALTERNATE 1 6-1 5 Wine Responsibly J Lezcano
ALTERNATE 2 6-1 2 Bonne Chance K Carmouche

* EXACTA: 6-3 BOX, 3-7 BOX, 7-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/6/7 BOX, 1/3/7 BOX

COMMENTS: WORKS FOR ME ran the top last race speed figure with improved pace from start to finish. AGGELOS THE GREAT could benefit from cutting back in distance. PERLIANO ran faster fractions despite going a little longer in his last. ICE THE KICKER improved a ton in his second start and the same move forward today would be more than enough.



RACE #5 $250,000 STAKES
1 1/8 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 2:48 PM ET

** BONUS COMMENTARY ** $100,000 HILL PRINCE STAKES GRADE II

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 1-1 3 Integration K Carmouche
PLACE 6-1 8 Im Very Busy M Franco
SHOW 9-5 10 Crupi K Carmouche
WILD CARD 15-1 7 Quality Chic I Castillo

ALTERNATE 1 8-1 9 Classic Catch J Alvarado
ALTERNATE 2 10-1 5 Faraday J Castellano

* EXACTA: 3-8 BOX, 8-10 BOX, 10-7 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/8/10 BOX, 7/8/10 BOX

COMMENTS: INTEGRATION is undefeated in two and has shown top level early and late pace. He will be really hard to beat when he puts them together. IM VERY BUSY is a closer with some strong works between races. CRUPI is the top pick if the race is moved off the grass. QUALITY CHIC is a longshot with a chance as he should be close to the front all the way around the track.



RACE #6 $90,000 ALLOWANCE
1 1/8 MILES ON THE OUTER TURF - POST TIME: 3:17 PM ET

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 9-2 4 Danzigwiththestars I Ortiz Jr.
PLACE 5-1 7 So High J Castellano
SHOW 8-1 5 Harry Hood J Rosario
WILD CARD 20-1 12 Kingfish Stevens R Silvera

ALTERNATE 1 20-1 9 Front Man E Cancel
ALTERNATE 2 9-5 15 Leading Contender J Castellano

* EXACTA: 4-7 BOX, 7-5 BOX, 5-12 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4/5/7 BOX, 5/7/12 BOX


RACE #7 $100,000 STAKES
6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:45 PM ET

** BONUS COMMENTARY ** $100,000 KEY CENTS STAKES

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 4-1 7 Ashburn Alley J Castellano
PLACE 5-2 3 Caras Time D Davis
SHOW 12-1 2 Alleys Song J Rosario
WILD CARD 4-1 5 Tricky Temper I Ortiz Jr.

ALTERNATE 1 5-1 1 My Shea D Lady J L Ortiz
ALTERNATE 2 7-2 6 Soloshot M Franco

* EXACTA: 7-3 BOX, 3-2 BOX, 2-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/3/7 BOX, 2/3/5 BOX

COMMENTS: ASHBURN ALLEY won her debut with ease on the front. CARAS TIME should be on the gas from go. ALLEYS SONG won his debut with a wide trip and any improvement should be enough. TRICKY TEMPER ran much better on dirt than turf in his last. Returning to dirt should help him.



RACE #8 $85,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
1 1/16 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 4:15 PM ET

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 6-1 9 Waskesiu J Alvarado
PLACE 4-1 4 Positive Carry M Franco
SHOW 6-1 1 Before You Go Go J L Ortiz
WILD CARD 7-2 8 Spendalot I Ortiz Jr.

ALTERNATE 1 10-1 16 By the Glass J A Gomez
ALTERNATE 2 6-1 15 Wynning Touch J L Ortiz

* EXACTA: 9-4 BOX, 4-1 BOX, 1-8 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/4/9 BOX, 1/4/8 BOX


RACE #9 $150,000 STAKES
6 FURLONGS ON THE OUTER TURF - POST TIME: 4:43 PM ET

** BONUS COMMENTARY ** $150,000 TURF SPRINT CHAMPIONSHIP

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 6-1 2 Alogon M Franco
PLACE 5-2 4 Our Shot I Ortiz Jr.
SHOW 5-1 1 Wit J L Ortiz
WILD CARD 6-1 6 Nothing Better D Davis

ALTERNATE 1 9-5 15 Durante M Franco
ALTERNATE 2 5-1 16 Sheriff Bianco J L Ortiz

* EXACTA: 2-4 BOX, 4-1 BOX, 1-6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/4 BOX, 1/4/6 BOX

COMMENTS: ALOGON hit the board in seven of eight on grass. OUR SHOT is a consistent high end performer that ran much faster fractions last out. WIT should be fit in his third start after a layoff. NOTHING BETTER tends to run well fresh off the bench like today.



RACE #10 $55,000 STARTER ALLOWANCE
6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 5:10 PM ET

BEST BET: #5 SHES AWESOME

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 7-2 5 Shes Awesome J L Ortiz
PLACE 6-1 4 Icy Reply L R Rivera Jr.
SHOW 10-1 1 Boss Lady Kim M Franco
WILD CARD 15-1 11 My Girl Jal K Carmouche

ALTERNATE 1 15-1 8 Meraviglioso R Silvera
ALTERNATE 2 9-2 6 Shaman Princess J Lezcano

* EXACTA: 5-4 BOX, 4-1 BOX, 1-11 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/4/5 BOX, 1/4/11 BOX

[ConleyPicks]

Churchill Downs Tip Sheet - November 18
Nov. 17, 2023

Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 69% of the time at this track.

RACE #1 $20,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING
5 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:00 PM ET

BEST BET: #6 WHOS SNOW TROUBLE

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 2-1 6 Whos Snow Trouble L Saez
PLACE 9-5 7 Tap Anchor K J Asmussen
SHOW 10-1 5 Flashover F Peterson
WILD CARD 7-2 4 Mr Big Stuff T Gaffalione

ALTERNATE 1 12-1 1 Persuade A Lezcano
ALTERNATE 2 8-1 3 Pleasant Destiny D Cannon

* EXACTA: 6-7 BOX, 7-5 BOX, 5-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 5/6/7 BOX, 4/5/7 BOX


RACE #2 $20,000 CLAIMING
1 1/16 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:30 PM ET

BEST BET: #1 JUMP INTO THE FIRE

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 5-2 1 Jump Into the Fire L Machado
PLACE 15-1 3 Miss Moon Pie A Achard
SHOW 3-1 6 Hope Over Fear T Gaffalione
WILD CARD 4-1 4 Keen Contender F Geroux

ALTERNATE 1 6-1 7 Baby Gundin J Talamo
ALTERNATE 2 4-1 5 Fireside Kitten E Morales

* EXACTA: 1-3 BOX, 3-6 BOX, 6-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/3/6 BOX, 3/4/6 BOX


RACE #3 $30,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING
7 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:00 PM ET

BEST BET: #9 STUNNEM

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 7-2 9 Stunnem A Beschizza
PLACE 3-1 2 Bear River B J Hernandez Jr.
SHOW 12-1 1 Quencio C J Hernandez
WILD CARD 10-1 7 Extra Halo G Corrales

ALTERNATE 1 9-2 4 All the Rage T Gaffalione
ALTERNATE 2 8-1 11 Mirage F Geroux

* EXACTA: 9-2 BOX, 2-1 BOX, 1-7 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/9 BOX, 1/2/7 BOX


RACE #4 $20,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING
6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:30 PM ET

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 7-2 12 Pacific States B J Hernandez Jr.
PLACE 4-1 11 Solevo K J Asmussen
SHOW 8-1 10 Delta Delta J Elliott
WILD CARD 8-1 4 Silver Bull F Geroux

ALTERNATE 1 10-1 2 My Uncle Frank L Saez
ALTERNATE 2 9-2 8 Chitwood T Gaffalione

* EXACTA: 12-11 BOX, 11-10 BOX, 10-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 10/11/12 BOX, 4/10/11 BOX


RACE #5 $127,000 ALLOWANCE
5 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 4:01 PM ET

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 8-5 15 Halmstad L Saez
PLACE 7-2 8 Talkin Cash T Gaffalione
SHOW 8-1 5 Straight and Level J Loveberry
WILD CARD 5-2 2 Double Clutch J R Leparoux

ALTERNATE 1 6-1 3 Cigarette Boat R Santana Jr.
ALTERNATE 2 10-1 1 Town Barber A Achard

* EXACTA: 15-8 BOX, 8-5 BOX, 5-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 5/8/15 BOX, 2/5/8 BOX


RACE #6 $72,000 STARTER ALLOWANCE
1 1/16 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:31 PM ET

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 7-2 4 Cats Cave J Rocco Jr.
PLACE 4-1 5 Hush It Honey M Garcia
SHOW 3-1 7 Puckered T Gaffalione
WILD CARD 6-1 3 Bold Baby F Arrieta

ALTERNATE 1 9-2 6 Rock Star Doctor L Saez
ALTERNATE 2 8-1 1 Annas Wish E Morales

* EXACTA: 4-5 BOX, 5-7 BOX, 7-3 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4/5/7 BOX, 3/5/7 BOX


RACE #7 $120,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 5:01 PM ET

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 9-2 5 Beautiful Mischief L Saez
PLACE 7-2 3 Bedazzle Em L Machado
SHOW 8-1 12 Hope Mission T Gaffalione
WILD CARD 12-1 11 Wonder of You M Garcia

ALTERNATE 1 6-1 1 Lady Driller R Santana Jr.
ALTERNATE 2 12-1 10 Trial E Morales

* EXACTA: 5-3 BOX, 3-12 BOX, 12-11 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/5/12 BOX, 3/11/12 BOX


RACE #8 $30,000 CLAIMING
6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 5:33 PM ET

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 3-1 9 Magnificent Mile E Esquivel
PLACE 5-2 1 Fan the Fire T Gaffalione
SHOW 5-1 4 Concept L Saez
WILD CARD 10-1 10 Libertango J Loveberry

ALTERNATE 1 6-1 6 Forever Cool R Bejarano
ALTERNATE 2 15-1 7 Rewire R Santana Jr.

* EXACTA: 9-1 BOX, 1-4 BOX, 4-10 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/4/9 BOX, 1/4/10 BOX


RACE #9 $141,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING
1 1/16 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 6:05 PM ET

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 5-2 6 Strong Quality F Geroux
PLACE 9-2 2 Johnys Fireball L Saez
SHOW 7-2 7 English Tavern C J Hernandez
WILD CARD 12-1 10 Good Governance J McKee

ALTERNATE 1 5-2 14 Brigadier General T Gaffalione
ALTERNATE 2 15-1 5 Underdressed F Peterson

* EXACTA: 6-2 BOX, 2-7 BOX, 7-10 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/6/7 BOX, 2/7/10 BOX


RACE #10 $300,000 STAKES
1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 6:35 PM ET

** BONUS COMMENTARY ** $300,000 CHILUKKI STAKES GRADE III

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 5-2 3 Hidden Connection T Gaffalione
PLACE 7-2 9 Hot and Sultry R Santana Jr.
SHOW 9-2 1 Nostalgic F Geroux
WILD CARD 4-1 7 Falconet L Saez

ALTERNATE 1 5-1 4 Oeuvre J Loveberry
ALTERNATE 2 30-1 2 Raindrops On Roses J Talamo

* EXACTA: 3-9 BOX, 9-1 BOX, 1-7 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/3/9 BOX, 1/7/9 BOX

COMMENTS: HIDDEN CONNECTION ran the top last race speed figure and has a bunch of works since. HOT AND SULTRY has been off since May but has some of her best works getting prepped for today. NOSTALGIC probably has the most back class and should improve in the second up off the break. FALCONET has two wins and a third in three at the distance.



RACE #11 $120,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 7:05 PM ET

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 3-1 6 Copperdrop R Santana Jr.
PLACE 10-1 1 All Out of Grace F Arrieta
SHOW 20-1 2 The J Factor J Loveberry
WILD CARD 7-2 8 Caberneigh T Canuto

ALTERNATE 1 8-1 5 Velvet Kisses L Saez
ALTERNATE 2 10-1 7 Pretty Song M Garcia

* EXACTA: 6-1 BOX, 1-2 BOX, 2-8 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/6 BOX, 1/2/8 BOX

[ConleyPicks]

Del Mar Tip Sheet - November 18
Nov. 17, 2023

Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 65% of the time at this track.

RACE #1 $40,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING
1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 4:30 PM ET

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 2-1 7 Princess Midnight K Frey
PLACE 4-1 6 Viewers Discretion U Rispoli
SHOW 3-1 2 Adelie J J Hernandez
WILD CARD 5-1 1 Happyasaclam D A Herrera

ALTERNATE 1 10-1 4 Monique V Espinoza
ALTERNATE 2 20-1 5 Storming Gray E Payeras

* EXACTA: 7-6 BOX, 6-2 BOX, 2-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/6/7 BOX, 1/2/6 BOX


RACE #2 $100,000 STAKES
7 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 5:00 PM ET

** BONUS COMMENTARY ** $100,000 DESI ARNAZ STAKES

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 4-5 4 Royal Slipper J R Velazquez
PLACE 7-2 2 Tambo A Fresu
SHOW 5-2 1 Nothing Like You J J Hernandez
WILD CARD 12-1 3 Dont Bring Crazy U Rispoli

ALTERNATE 1 6-1 5 Halone F Prat

* EXACTA: 4-2 BOX, 2-1 BOX, 1-3 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/4 BOX, 1/2/3 BOX

COMMENTS: ROYAL SLIPPER won her debut with ease with the top last race speed figure. TAMBO showed more stamina in her last and should be fit today. NOTHING LIKE YOU went wire to wire at a mile in her last and cutting back to 7 furlongs should help here. DONT BRING CRAZY will be closing and getting extra runway today could be a difference maker.



RACE #3 $61,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
5 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 5:29 PM ET

BEST BET: #6 NEON LIGHTS

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 9-5 6 Neon Lights F Prat
PLACE 4-1 7 Petcoff U Rispoli
SHOW 5-2 1 Vegas Burner J R Velazquez
WILD CARD 6-1 4 Johnny Drama A Fresu

ALTERNATE 1 4-1 5 Anniversaire dOr J J Hernandez
ALTERNATE 2 20-1 3 Mobe Town T Baze

* EXACTA: 6-7 BOX, 7-1 BOX, 1-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/6/7 BOX, 1/4/7 BOX


RACE #4 $40,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING
1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 5:58 PM ET

BEST BET: #2 SUPER ENTICING

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 6-5 2 Super Enticing F Prat
PLACE 4-1 1 Bossy Bruin Gal J Torrealba
SHOW 5-2 3 Asian Matriarch A Fresu
WILD CARD 7-2 5 Shes My Niece E A Maldonado

ALTERNATE 1 8-1 4 High Flying Gracie A Aguilar

* EXACTA: 2-1 BOX, 1-3 BOX, 3-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/3 BOX, 1/3/5 BOX


RACE #5 $45,000 CLAIMING
1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 6:28 PM ET

BEST BET: #6 KID AZTECA

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 2-1 6 Kid Azteca J J Hernandez
PLACE 5-2 1 For A Laugh A Fresu
SHOW 5-2 5 Low Expectations M Gutierrez
WILD CARD 6-1 3 Marks Hip K Frey

ALTERNATE 1 8-1 4 Syntactic U Rispoli
ALTERNATE 2 6-1 2 Tom and Jazzy D A Herrera

* EXACTA: 6-1 BOX, 1-5 BOX, 5-3 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/5/6 BOX, 1/3/5 BOX


RACE #6 $61,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 6:58 PM ET

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 8-5 8 Jarama R A Vazquez
PLACE 5-1 7 Stolen Treasure G Franco
SHOW 5-2 2 Stay On the Fence M Gutierrez
WILD CARD 8-1 5 Thirsty Thursday R Gonzalez

ALTERNATE 1 6-1 4 J Dutton K Frey
ALTERNATE 2 12-1 6 Bear Coast A Aguilar

* EXACTA: 8-7 BOX, 7-2 BOX, 2-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/7/8 BOX, 2/5/7 BOX


RACE #7 $63,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING
5 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 7:28 PM ET

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 5-2 8 Double Jab F Prat
PLACE 3-1 5 Book Smart E A Maldonado
SHOW 5-1 1 Gypsy Tears K Frey
WILD CARD 6-1 4 Geezer T J Pereira

ALTERNATE 1 6-1 9 Barely Funtional M Gutierrez
ALTERNATE 2 10-1 6 Cribbage Board J J Hernandez

* EXACTA: 8-5 BOX, 5-1 BOX, 1-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/5/8 BOX, 1/4/5 BOX


RACE #8 $100,000 STAKES
7 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 7:58 PM ET

** BONUS COMMENTARY ** $100,000 CARY GRANT STAKES

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 4-5 7 The Chosen Vron H I Berrios
PLACE 5-2 6 Big City Lights J J Hernandez
SHOW 12-1 8 Moose Mitchell M Gutierrez
WILD CARD 15-1 1 Principe Carlo K Frey

ALTERNATE 1 12-1 4 Lovesick Blues U Rispoli
ALTERNATE 2 20-1 2 Trip to Spain G Franco

* EXACTA: 7-6 BOX, 6-8 BOX, 8-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 6/7/8 BOX, 1/6/8 BOX

COMMENTS: THE CHOSEN VRON ran the top last race speed figure and will likely be better in the second up. BIG CITY LIGHTS has three wins and three close seconds in six races. MOOSE MITCHELL ran faster times despite going a little longer in his last. PRINCIPE CARLO has some good workouts getting ready for his first race since late August.



RACE #9 $22,500 CLAIMING
5 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 8:28 PM ET

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 4-1 6 Silardi U Rispoli
PLACE 5-1 2 Hot Box R A Vazquez
SHOW 5-2 4 Give Me the Lute J J Hernandez
WILD CARD 10-1 11 Code Charlie G Franco

ALTERNATE 1 5-1 7 Perfectionistic A Fresu
ALTERNATE 2 15-1 3 Stormy Samurai A Aguilar

* EXACTA: 6-2 BOX, 2-4 BOX, 4-11 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/4/6 BOX, 2/4/11 BOX

[ConleyPicks]

Free play from Mike Wynn

Free Pick: Coastal Carolina -3 over Army

[ConleyPicks]

Free play from Totals4U

Early Saturday Free Selection: Utah Utes/Arizona Wildcats under 45 1/2