Tuesday 11/21/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[ConleyPicks]

Kenny Walker

Free Pick on Cal-Irvine-6.5

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Jack Jones

Jack's Free Pick Tuesday: Blazers/Suns UNDER 225

The Portland Trail Blazers are a dead nuts UNDER team right now playing without their two talented young guards in Scoot Henderson and Anfernee Simons and well as veteran Malcolm Brogdon. To say their offense is broken right now without these guys would be an understatement.

The Blazers have scored 91, 95, 95 and 99 points in their last four games coming in. They rank dead last (30th) on offensive rating and 25th in pace. They take on a Phoenix Suns team that doesn't look to push it either ranking 23rd in pace this season.

I think this total is inflated due to the Suns coming off two straight high-scoring games against the Jazz, who are an OVER team through and through. But the fact that they went to double-OT against the Jazz last time out is also playing into this total with 277 combined points. That game was tied 115-115 at the end of regulation for 230 combined points, which would have gone under the 239-point total.

The UNDER is 4-0-1 in the last five meetings between the Blazers and Suns and would be 5-0 if not for OT. Two of those five games went to OT and all five still saw 224 or fewer combined points, including 214 or fewer at the end of regulation in all five. The Blazers and Suns have averaged just 203.2 combined points at the end of regulation in those five games. Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

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Steve Janus

1* Free Sharp Play on Toledo+3.5

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BRIAN W. SPENCER'S DAILY PICKS

Mahoning Valley - Race #5
PICKS NOTES
#4 Spin Doctor He has to turn the tables out of his last one, but I like that he owns some pretty honest finishing form. One of his baseline efforts keeps him in the frame.
#9 Masterofthehounds Think he's got a claim on this on consistency alone, and he should be in line for a nice trip right near the top. No argument from me here except maybe a short kind of price.
#7 Ol' L B He was a bit more forwardly placed last out than usual, but the fact that he can finish with a little bit of energy works in his favor if a few of the speedier types start to quit.
Race Summary Spin Doctor has run a lot on his page since May, but he has been holding honest form and might be able to kick home best here if Masterofthehounds gets into a battle a bit earlier.

Mahoning Valley - Race #7
PICKS NOTES
#1 Big Java The better tries on her page would keep her in the mix, and I like that she can probably settle a bit further back and try to bring one run today after the speedier types sort things out.
#7 Spring Magic Considered her on top with some pretty decent form in her recent running lines, but I wouldn't want to land here at too short a price while tries the local footing for the first time. One of the obvious ones.
#6 Judy's Ms. Officer She has been facing some tougher company around the midwest in some of those recent races, and her better stuff would make her a player with this group.
Race Summary Big Java has some appeal at what I hope is a midrange price, and she's capable of something better than she showed at Keeneland last time out. Expecting better.

Mahoning Valley - Race #8
PICKS NOTES
#3 Miss Bumbum They definitely figured her out somewhere between the December 2022 try and the late August comeback, and I'll give her a look to rise and land another one right back with winners. Spy and finish run to score?
#6 Dolce Marie Not a whole lot wrong with her form through three starts, and she might be legged up to stay this sprint trip today after the two-turn run last out. Pace might have to work for it early but looks like the one to beat.
#7 Dance Drama Think her typical try makes her worth a look, and her best chance probably comes from trying to attach herself to the outside of Dolce Marie and prompt that one the entire way. Class is still a question.
Race Summary Miss Bumbum might be too slow for these, but I like that she has looked like a new filly since coming back off the break, and I think she's going to trip out from just a bit off the pace. Why not?

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FRANK CARULLI'S DAILY PICKS

Remington Park - Race #1
PICKS NOTES
#2 EURA NORTHERN SKY (12-1) Back with Oklahoma breds, upset possibility on best.
#4 PRINCESS BALL (3-1) Kept mostly allowance company since win, good works since last start.
#5 REALITY CHECK (8-1) Dueled long way for the lead in her last three starts at today’s distance.
Race Summary EURA NORTHERN SKY rode the rail throughout and earned the top speed figure of her career off a brief freshening. The top two finishers in the 5F sprint have finished first or second in 12 of 29 starts between them. Bet to win and place and play a 2-4-5 exacta box.

Remington Park - Race #2
PICKS NOTES
#9 SUMMEROSA (3-1) Plays to a steady beat, ran second twice at this level, distance suits.
#5 ELENA MAE (5-1) Ran away from $7,500 maidens, will lead for as far as she goes on stretch out.
#8 TALKATIVE (4-1) Got the jump on Summerosa but couldn’t sustain bid at one mile.
Race Summary Save for a troubled run as the favorite two starts back, SUMMER0SA has a win, two seconds and a third in four starts on the main track surrounding that race. She rallied 6-wide in a 12-horse field to just miss last out in a route race dominated by deep closers. Bet to win and place.

Remington Park - Race #4
PICKS NOTES
#6 D TWO (2-1) Faced quality rivals since claim, should handle this field as today’s Best Bet.
#7 ROBERT WHO (5-2) Good speed but backed up as the favorite in last two Remington starts.
#2 BREW CREW (9-2) Finished in the money in 15 of 31 starts, changes rider again.
Race Summary D TWO, an eight-race winner facing nw/4 types, is strictly the one to beat. He’s winless this year and was no factor in a pair of fast sprints recently, but he met the likes of three-peat winner Mister Chairman (4-12, $119k) and repeater Rare Stripe (6-28, $143k). Bet to win and place.