Tuesday 11/28/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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1/ST BET AI Picks: Zia Park Derby Day | Tuesday

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November 28, 2023 | By 1/ST BET
Back-to-back big stakes cards roll on at New Mexico’s Zia Park. The state-breds were center stage Monday, but Tuesday’s 7 marquee events are for open-company runners. Among the notable shippers is Preakness fourth-place finisher Red Route One to the Race 10 Zia Park Derby.

To assist your handicapping, selections provided by the 1/ST BET app measure each contender against the 10 leading factors for each race. The 1/ST BET app looks at 52 handicapping factors and more than 200,000 past races to determine its AI selections. You can use the automated handicapping factors, or create your own factor filters to incorporate angles you prefer. Full-card selections can be found in the 1/ST BET app.

Race 1
#2 Flying First Class (22% Win Projection) 5-1 ML

Race 2
#5 Mongolian Kingdom (16% Win Projection) 3-1 ML

Race 3
#3 Daddy What If (23% Win Projection) 6-1 ML

Race 4
#2 Bye Bye Bobby (29% Win Projection) 6-5 ML

Race 5
#2 TX Women for Arts (28% Win Projection) 2-1 ML

Race 6
#8 U Can Do It (28% Win Projection) 12-1 ML

Race 7
#5 Flyin Falynn (28% Win Projection) 5-1 ML

Race 8
#2 Diamond Rim (19% Win Projection) 12-1 ML

Race 9
#2 Flying Connection (19% Win Projection) 6-5 ML

Race 10
#6 Two Rivers Over (19% Win Projection) 12-1 ML

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Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

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Mahoning Valley - Race #3

#1 B Sassi	She chased early but couldn't stay in the debut run here last month, but she's really not meeting much in here on paper and might see this one out if she's got any step forward in her. The one to beat -- she looks like the best of the speed and I can't find anyone who should come get her.
#2 Cowgirls Humor	She has finished ahead of just one horse through two starts, and she has never really been close at any point in either race. Not sure there are any real signs she's about to wake up, but the barn actually does OK work with these types, and she won't need to turn into a star overnight to land a small piece of this.
#6 Mobil Dream Star	Briefly considered her on top, as she's almost surely more tactical on the local footing than she showed last time out, and she might be in a decent spot to prompt the rail runner on the turn.
Race Summary	B Sassi is probably a short kind of price in here, but this is not a good group for the local level. She might be able to put these away without a ton of trouble if she finds the top. Get a look at the pair drawn widest on the track...not sure what to do with them.

Mahoning Valley - Race #7

#2 Hartful Hope	She should be in a pretty perfect spot early while spying the speed, but she should always be within range and makes a lot of sense as a multi-race single.
#3 Kitten Calls	Not going to hold the Keeneland starter try against her too much, and I think some of that Golden Gate form on her page establishes a little bit of trust in the recent Mountaineer efforts. Logical alternative.
#6 Gormleyesque	You can typically get a pretty good read on how this guy is going to finish based on where he's at on the turn -- if he's on the engine, he's got a real chance, but you can be pretty confident he'll pack it in if he's already chasing at that point. Think there is just enough pace to keep him honest today.
Race Summary	Hartful Hope should trip out while sitting in just behind a couple more committed forward players, and I'll hope one of them presses Gormleyesque enough so he doesn't get a chance to slip away and end this one early.

Mahoning Valley - Race #9

#8 Whynaughty	The recent sprint form earned her that stretchout chance, and she didn't ever seem to care for the race that day, so she's back around one turn here. Think she lands a dreamy run from behind the pace.
#4 The Miracle Kiut	Spent way too much time trying to figure out what to do with her here. Her best stuff makes her tough, and I think there is a real chance she shrugs off the other pace and lands this. That said, I worry that a couple of the other forward players seem likely to do little but make things tougher for her before fading.
#3 Seeyouinmotown	She's an honest enough finisher who has sometimes shown enough tactical ability to adapt. Wouldn't be shocked to see the race come back to her a bit.
Race Summary	Whynaughty cuts back to her best trip and might find a really great spot in behind some runners who want to get in the mix a bit earlier. Think she needs her A-game to win this, but the price might be fair enough to give her a heavy look.

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Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

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Zia Park - Race #1

#2 FLYING FIRST CLASS (5-1)	Solid debut against all but one first-time starters, time away the concern.
#4 AYE CANDY (7-5)	Turning heads in the morning for high-percentage barn with 2-year-olds.
#6 PRETTYWITTYANDWISE (5-2)	Chased rapid pace, stayed third, goes an extra half-furlong.
Race Summary	FLYING FIRST CLASS ‘menaced in early stretch’ but was out-kicked by a 7-to-5 first-time starter when third in her debut in a division of the Texas Stallion stakes. She hasn’t raced in six months since that race but shows a good gate work at Zia Park in her most recent prep. Bet to win and place.

Zia Park - Race #3

#7 PARTYOFSIXTEEN (15-1)	Longshot stab in possible lead role, has been well-bet all year.
#9 KIRBY DERBY (9-5)	Pair of recent photo-finish victories at this level, one to beat.
#1 WILMAS IRISH ROVER (2-1)	Three winning rallies in last six starts, seeks seventh win at Zia.
Race Summary	In a field void of quality speed, PARTYOFSIXTEEN could seize the moment at a big price on the stretch-out in distance. He has a win at 7F on his resume, met the likes of front-end winner Rocky Bar Six and recent three-peater Feel The Berning (6-25, $94k) at Albuquerque. Play a 1-7-9 exacta box.

Zia Park - Race #5

#8 CURLIN’S MAGIC (5-2)	‘Powered to front’ in early stretch, finished second in longer sprint.
#4 ONLY ONE AMERICA (12-1)	Blasted to the lead and never looked back in first start locally.
#6 GREASE MISSLE (8-1)	Caused traffic jam into turn, recovered too late as odds-on choice.
Race Summary	CURLIN’S MAGIC is progressing steadily, romped at this distance off a similar freshening and finished ahead of morning-line favorite TX WOMEN FOR ARTS in her first stakes try. She draws a favorable post and gets the call with a new pilot at the helm. Bet to win and place.

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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Zia Park

PURCHASE

Zia Park - Race 9	1st Half Late $1 Daily Double / $1 Exacta / .50 Trifecta / .10 Superfecta 2nd Leg Pick 3/ 3rd Leg Pick 4 / 4th Leg Pick 5
Stakes • 1 1/16 Miles • Dirt • Age 3 • CR: 90 • Purse: $300,000 • Post: 3:49P
ZIA PARK OAKS - FOR THREE YEAR OLD FILLIES.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Dominant Stalker. FLYING CONNECTION is the Dominant Stalker of the race. * KEY ANGLES * FLYING CONNECTION: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. Horse has the highest TrackMa ster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
2	FLYING CONNECTION	6/5	5/2

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
9	BANGS	9	20/1	Front-runner	80	86	69.2	69.2	62.2
2	FLYING CONNECTION	2	6/5	Stalker	95	93	101.0	93.2	91.2
7	PEPPER MILL	7	20/1	Stalker	85	85	100.5	64.5	50.0
8	HALOSNHEAVEN	8	6/1	Stalker	83	81	73.0	68.3	56.3
6	CHARLEE MAE	6	10/1	Stalker	90	87	67.8	67.3	54.8
3	TRIPLE L'S CUTTER	3	15/1	Alternator/Stalker	83	86	53.3	73.8	61.8
1	LOVE TANK	1	10/1	Trailer	92	93	88.6	84.2	77.7
5	MAGIC BUBBLES	5	3/1	Trailer	89	80	82.0	78.2	72.2
4	FREEBRITNEY	4	12/1	Trailer	87	84	62.6	55.0	40.0

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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Mountaineer ParkPURCHASE

Mountaineer Park - Race 1	$2 Daily Double (Races 1-2) $2 Exacta $1 Box $1 Trifecta $.50 Box $1 Superfecta $.20 Box $2 Pick 4 (races 1-4) $.50 Wheel
Claiming $4,000 • 1 Mile 70 yards • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 78 • Purse: $8,300 • Post: 7:00P
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON TWO RACES SINCE NOVEMBER 28, 2022 OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE OCTOBER 28 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,000 (W V A BRED RACES NOT CONSIDERED IN ELIGIBILITY).

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Lone Front-runner. PARTY OF NO is the Lone Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * PARADE GRAND: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. PONTI PRIDE: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. BRODYTHEOXMAN: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. TEXTPECTATION: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation.
6	PARTY OF NO	8/1	4/1
5	PARADE GRAND	6/1	7/1
1	PONTI PRIDE	9/2	8/1
9	BRODYTHEOXMAN	5/1	9/1
2	TEXTPECTATION	8/1	10/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
6	PARTY OF NO	6	8/1	Front-runner	80	73	76.2	69.4	63.9
5	PARADE GRAND	5	6/1	Stalker	83	77	53.4	73.8	65.8
1	PONTI PRIDE	1	9/2	Stalker	74	79	53.2	72.4	63.9
9	BRODYTHEOXMAN	9	5/1	Trailer	82	74	47.2	74.2	63.7
3	BACK ALLEY CAT	3	8/1	Trailer	77	70	42.8	68.6	58.1
2	TEXTPECTATION	2	8/1	Alternator/Trailer	82	76	35.8	71.0	61.0
4	PONT DU GARD	4	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	86	77	66.8	64.8	54.3
8	HELLUVA LIFE	8	8/1	Alternator/Non-contender	82	75	51.6	64.4	53.9
7	CAPTAIN RILEY	7	30/1	Alternator/Non-contender	63	61	43.2	57.2	38.7
10	EASY SHOT	10	5/2	Alternator/Non-contender	68	65	36.6	62.8	48.3

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Mountaineer Park

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 1 - Claiming - 8.3f on the Dirt. Purse: $8300 Class Rating: 78

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON TWO RACES SINCE NOVEMBER 28, 2022 OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE OCTOBER 28 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,000

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 1 PONTI PRIDE 9/2
# 5 PARADE GRAND 6/1
# 4 PONT DU GARD 20/1

I've got to go with PONTI PRIDE. Don't overlook this gelding in your propositions - very dangerous with Dasilva aboard. Ran a solid last race. Looks very good for the conditions of this competition today, showing solid figures in dirt route races recently. PARADE GRAND - He has been running very well lately while recording very strong speed figures. Handler boasts strong win figs at this distance and surface. PONT DU GARD - Looks very good to be up near the front end at the first call. He has competitive class ratings, averaging 84, and has to be given consideration in this race.

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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Mahoning Valley Race Course - Race #3 - Post: 1:40pm - Maiden Special - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $31,800 Class Rating: 30

Rating:

#4 HISTORYINTHEMAKING (ML=4/1)


HISTORYINTHEMAKING - With a big class drop in class figure points from her November 13th race at Mahoning Valley Race Cour. Based on that knowledge, I will give this horse the edge. This racer should go right out to the early lead and may never look back. Could wire the field. Trainer, Sweeting, has been deliberate with this filly off the layoff. Look for a solid effort today.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 B SASSI (ML=8/5), #7 DEBBIE'S DREAM (ML=7/2), #8 IMA MOM (ML=6/1),

B SASSI - You should normally gamble against morning-line favorites that haven't raced or show no activity in the morning over the last 3 weeks. DEBBIE'S DREAM - Her sire, Danza, has a win percentage of 3 with first time starters. Not exactly the best. IMA MOM - If she goes off anywhere near the morning line of 6/1, I'll have to pass.

GUEST COMMENTARY: Hal - HISTORYINTHEMAKING - This filly's superior last speed number of 24, against these horses, makes her the overwhelming choice.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#4 HISTORYINTHEMAKING is going to be the play if we are getting 1/1 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	4 with 8
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	None
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None

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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Parx Racing - Race #3 - Post: 12:59pm - Claiming - 8.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $21,000 Class Rating: 61

Rating:

#6 STAFF SERGEANT (ML=8/1)
#1 LOGAN'S RUNNER (ML=9/5)


STAFF SERGEANT - Should do well right here. Weight shift of -10 from November 6th race at Parx Racing. LOGAN'S RUNNER - This gelding registered a good speed rating of 60 in his last race. That figure should be high enough to score this time out. This gelding is most obviously on the improve with speed ratings of 34, 53, 60 last three out.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 BOOK MARKER (ML=5/2), #4 DISTURBED (ML=4/1),

BOOK MARKER - This horse hasn't shown very much in the last couple of affairs. DISTURBED - I'd like to see more conducive recent showings with morning line odds of 4/1. The speed fig last time out doesn't fit very well in this event when I look at the class figure of today's race. Mark this thoroughbred as a questionable contender.

GUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - STAFF SERGEANT - This colt takes a big tumble in the class rating department from a rating of 68 down to 61. Strong contender.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#6 STAFF SERGEANT to win at post-time odds of 3/2 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [1,6]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Zia Park

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 10 - Stakes - 8.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $300000 Class Rating: 103

ZIA PARK DERBY - FOR THREE YEAR OLDS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 5 RED ROUTE ONE 5/2
# 2 HEROIC MOVE 8/1
# 7 ARROWTHEGREAT 6/1

RED ROUTE ONE is the strongest wager in this race. Should definitely be considered for this race if only for the strong speed fig earned in the last affair. He has decent class ratings, averaging 101, and has to be given a chance for this race. Has recorded reliable speed figures in dirt route races in the past. HEROIC MOVE - Could provide positive gains based on strong recent speed figures with an average of 92. May wake up with Lasix change (now going off Lasix) today. ARROWTHEGREAT - Appears to be the type to be helped now going off Lasix here. Ought to be given a shot in this race if only for the solid speed rating earned in the last affair.