3-12-09

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 3-12-09

Larry Ness Full Card


Larry Ness' 7* TV Game of the Week

San Antonio Spurs


Larry's PERFECT STORM (7-2 s/Jan 31)-Day

UNLV


Larry's Las Vegas Insider (76.9% run!)-Day

Michigan


Larry's 7* Revenge Rout

NMST


Larry's 7* Daytime Dominator

Texas


Larry's 7* Tourney Bailout

UC Santa Barbara

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 3-12-09

Larry Ness
REASON FOR PICK: Gary Williams is in his 20th season coaching his alma mater. He led the Terps to the Final 4 in 2001 (lost to Duke) and returned in 2002, this time winning the national championship by beating Indiana, 64-52. However, those "glory years' seem decades ago. That's what three NIT appearances in a four-year stretch will do. Some people argue that Maryland's a "bubble team" this year but I'm not one of them. The Terps are just 18-12 overall, including a losing record in the ACC (7-9). They did upset North Carolina at College Park on Feb 21 but the Terps lost the first meeting to the Tar Heels 108-91 in Chapel Hill, went 0-2 vs Duke plus lost to both Wake and Clemson. The Terps capped their regular season with a 68-63 loss at 10-17 Virginia (4-12 in the ACC). Just what about that record spells "at-large?" The Terps did beat tonight's opponent (NC State) in Raleigh 71-60, but don't expect 6-6 swingman Vazquez (17.2-5.4-4.8) to go for 33 points like he did in that game. In fact, NC State's lineup should be a tough one for Maryland to handle. Head coach Sidney Lowe is now going with a "big" lineup and Maryland's best two inside players are a pair of 6-7 forwards, Milbourne (12.2-4.2) and Neal (8.2-4.3). NC State's 6-6 swingman Fells (11.6-3.5) missed the team's finale with a groin injury but he's listed as probable for this game. PG Gonzalez (6.7-3.3 APG) joins him in the backcourt and as previously stated, Lowe starts the 6-9 Costner (13.6-6.1), the 6-9 McCauley (12.4-7.8) and the 6-8 Smith (10.2-4.5) across his frontline. The 6-9 Horner (6.2-3.9) is also getting more time, as he's averaged 9.7 PPG over NC St's last seven games. By game's end, Milbourne and Neal will really be missing the graduated Gist (15.9-7.9) and Osby (11.5-6.5), both around 6-8 or 6-9, from LY's team. Whatever hopes the Terps had of grabbing an at-large bid will disappear here, as the Wolfpack do what Lowe's former coach Jimmy V made famous. That is, "survive and advance!" Tourney Underdog Shocker on NC State (7*).

Larry Ness
REASON FOR PICK: It's hard to argue against the job first-year head coach Din Verlin has done at Idaho. The Vandals had won a total of 24 games the previous four years but this season, Verlin has led them to a winning conference mark (9-7), as well as a 16-14 overall record. I guess a coach learns a thing or two sitting beside Stew Morrill for 15 years (first at Colorado St and then at Utah State). The team's best player is 6-2 Washington State transfer Mac Hopson, who has averaged 16.6 PPG, 5.0 RPG and 5.8 APG. Former CC player Watson (10.5-3.6) plus two returning seniors, Morris (6.2) and Brown (4.8), round out the team's backcourt. Up front is the 6-10 Jefferson (9.1-4.4) at center, surrounded by 6-7 Brazilian-import de Souza (8.6) and the 6-6 Wiley (8.4-5.6). What's NOT to like about this 'story?' The answer is NOTHING but the Vandals drew a bad opponent in this game. La Tech went just 14-17 overall (6-10 in the WAC) but the Bulldogs have really played well down the stretch. The team lost 6-10 Cooper (11.7-7.10 in mid-January but instead of that hurting the team, the team's gotten better. Kyle Gibson (13.0-3.4) and Guyton (11.9-3.3) are a solid backcourt duo, with Ashaolu (5.0-4.0) and Loe (4.6) adding depth. The 6-10 Rolle (12.0-7.3) has picked up the slack after Cooper's loss, while the 6-5 Brandon Gibson (6.2) and the 6-8 Jackson (5.2-3.7) complete the main group of contributors. The Bulldogs won at Nevada on Feb 5, 78-75 (as 13.5-point underdogs) and then "hung tough" at Utah State on Feb 7, losing by just eight points (as a 17-point underdog). Those two ATS wins began a seven-game ATS winning streak over an eight-game stretch, with the Bulldogs going 6-2 SU (included a non-lined win). That ATS winning streak came to an end in the team's last regular season game, a 66-58 loss at Idaho. The LAST team Idaho wants to see again is La Tech (other than Utah St, of course) and I expect the Bulldogs to end Don Verlin's very successful first-season at Idaho, tonight in Reno (on a bad note!). Las Vegas Insider on La Tech (8*).

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 3-12-09

Dr. Bob
Thursday College Opinion
Tcu (+10) over Utah
Rotation #771 – 6 pm Pacific
TCU applies to a very strong 50-9 ATS conference tournament situation that plays on slumping teams, but my ratings favor Utah by 11 points in this game and I’m not willing to give up that much line value to make TCU a Best Bet. I’ll lean with TCU at +10 or more, but I’d take TCU in a 2-Star Best Bet at +11 or more.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 3-12-09

Dr. Bob 3 Star Rhode Island, 2 Star BC

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 3-12-09

Dr. Bob 3 Star Rhode Island, 2 Star BC. Confirmed.

3 Star Selection
Rhode Island (-3 ½) over Duquesne
12-Mar-09 03:30 PM Pacific Time
Rhode Island had won 6 consecutive games and 10 of 11 before losing straight up as an 11 point home favorite to U Mass on senior night, but the Rams should bounce-back tonight. Rhode Island applies to a very good 153-49-6 ATS conference tournament situation and my ratings favor the Rams by 4 points. I’ll take Rhode Island in a 3-Star Best Bet at -4 or less and for 2-Stars at -4 ½ points.
3-Stars at -4 or less, 2-Stars at -4 1/2.


2 Star Selection
Boston College (-4 ½) over Virginia
12-Mar-09 06:20 PM Pacific Time
Virginia lost by 5 points or more in 10 of their 16 conference games this season, including a 10 point home loss to Boston College, who built a 20 point half time lead in that game and let up in the 2nd half. My ratings only favor BC by 4 points, but the Eagles apply to a very strong 209-85-6 ATS situation and I’m willing to give up a little line value to play that angle. I’ll tke Boston College in a 2-Star Best Bet at -5 points or less and for 3-Stars at -4 or less.
2-Stars at -5 or less, 3-Stars at -4 or less.