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Thursday 12/7/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc
Thursday NFL Free play. My selection is on the 'under' between New England and Pittsburgh at 8:15 pm et on Thursday.
There's obviously a rather slim margin for error when playing 'under' a total this low. However, in this particular matchup, I think there's a good chance that low posted total may appear high by the time halftime rolls around. The Patriots lost the one good thing they had going on offense in RB Rhamondre Stevenson last Sunday. I still think New England does have a shot at extending some drives at the very least, chewing up clock and effectively shortening this game in the process, thanks to some notable injuries on the Steelers defense. On the flip side, Pittsburgh is always more than happy to pin its chances on its ground game and defense and in this critical bounce-back spot following Sunday's 24-10 loss to the Cardinals, it should do the same. I can't help but feel both teams have a vested interest in shortening proceedings and that should lend itself to a low-scoring affair. Take the under.
This week in Las Vegas, the Lakers (13-9, 10-12 ATS, 7-3 L10) will face off against the Pelicans (12-10, 13-8-1 ATS, 6-4 L10) at T-Mobile Arena on Thursday in the semifinals of the In-Season Tournament. New Orleans opened as 3-point underdogs. For those betting on the moneyline, LA is at -115, while NOP stands at +105. The oddsmakers anticipate a close contest with an over/under set at 229.5. (Opened at 230). AND we've waited long enough, and the O/U is now set at 232, so I'm going to pounce. I also have a premium play up this matchup just FYI. LAL are allowing opposing teams to shoot just 45 perfect from the field. New Orleans has looked much different in their road situation, as they have struggled on the road going just 4-6. (I know this is "Neutral" court, but still. NOT HOME, and it'll be heavy LA fans, I'm pretty sure. As a team overall, they have struggled to slow teams down. They rank just 17th in the NBA in total defense and this Lakers side has far too many weapons. The Lakers are playing at a high level right now, while the Pelicans are just trying to find consistency on their end. Trends, (I know its a Neutral court!) New Orleans has seen the total go lower in 6 out of their last 9 games and 15 out of their last 20 on the road. When playing on the road against the Lakers, 5 out of their last 6 games have gone under. Meanwhile, the Lakers have had the total go under in all of their last 6 home games and in 5 out of 6 when playing at home against New Orleans. It's likely to be an LAL crowd in Vegas tonight. I'd like to make the case that the inaugural NBA In Season Tournament has been a resounding success. A big thumbs up to the NBA. Hop on! Good Luck, Razor Ray.
Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. Here in this game the recent history of these two teams is particularly significant.
- The Coyotes are 5-0 in their last 5 games.
- The Coyotes are 4-1 in their last 5 home games.
- The Flyers are 9-10 in their last 19 road games.
We think the undervalued Coyotes are worth the price of admission here. Philly comes in gassed now after B2B extra-time wins over its rival Pittsburgh. Now on the road here on the West Coast and with much more high-profile games at Colorado and Nashville up next, not only does this set up as a letdown spot, but also a look-ahead; consider the Coyotes on Thursday night!
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