Friday 12/15/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-15-2023, 07:28 AM

Al Cimaglia: Cal Expo Pick 4 Analysis

December 15, 2023 | By Al Cimaglia
Cal Expo has a 10-race card with the 0.20 Pick 4 starting in Race 7. The sequence has a $20,000 guaranteed pool with a 16% takeout, and it will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 7 (8:45 PM PST)

8-Body Armor (3-1)-Will need its best to win but this 4-year-old likes taking pictures (33-10-8-4). Has been the beaten chalk in the last 2 races coming 2nd to Mandeville, 2 back broke stride at the start. Has the ability but needs to land in a close-up seat without being used up. Could get amends with a smooth trip.
9-Mandeville (5/2)-Looking for 3 straight and beat this kind from the 9-hole despite working to get the top. The race probably will go through this veteran.

Race 8 (9:05 PM PST)

2-Sherwood (7/5)-Tried to go gate to wire after working to get the top in the 1st race since 4-22. Faded down the lane to finish a well-beaten 2nd. Should be tighter, comes right back versus the same kind at a track he's done good work (24-6-10-2).
8-Cal's Hope (10-1)-Hasn't raced since April 30th and qualified with Svendsen on 12-10. The tune-up was fine, but not sure good enough to win coming off the bench. But is worth a play and could go off at a larger price than the morning line.

Race 9 (9:25 PM PST)

2-Regil Irish (3-1)-Drops and lands at a more competitive level. Starts inside and Svendsen could work a suck-around trip. This 3-year-old filly may have met a beatable field even though she will take on mares.
3-Witch Hunter (8-1)-This mare has only 1 win in 29 starts at CalX but kept coming last time in a race with some quick fractions. Should be a large price and could win with the right set up. Should also be worth using in gimmicks.
4-Biggiessecondshot (9/5)-This is the 3rd start since 6-6. Stayed inside last week, could not gain ground down the lane
and finished 3rd almost 6 lengths back. Not loving the short price but has back class, so will hold my nose and use but hope for others with some value.

Race 10 (9:45 PM PST)

2-Brooklyn Wind Up (6-1)-Comes back against the same kind after winning on 12-10. Not feeling the 6-1 morning line but is a logical player again.
3-Outlawburntpopcorn (5-1)-Here is another that comes right back after a nice effort. Should be a main player but the issue is what type of steer will be coming. Pacheco is a Provisional driver who is aggressive but sometimes forces his hand. Could win with a smooth trip and a patient drive.

0.20 Pick 4

8,9/2,8/2,3,4/2,3
Total Bet=$4.80

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-15-2023, 07:29 AM

Laurel Park Late Pick 4 Ticket | Friday, Dec. 15

December 15, 2023 | By Frank Carulli
LAUREL PARK PICK 4
Friday, Dec. 15

A bookend pair of $20,000 maiden claiming races, a crowded $10,000 route race and a starter allowance that features four six-figure earners totaling more than $1 million, make up the Laurel Park Late Pick 4 when the Fall Meet resumes Friday, Dec. 15. Solve the 50-cent wager and you could go home with a nice Christmas stocking stuffer.

LRL 6th race (2:48 P.M. EST) -- SUSAN’S MULE had a rough debut journey for a $45,000 tag and gets a lively pace to rally into if she avoids a wide trip from post 11. DETERMINED BLUE battled inside the winner, was on even terms between calls in the stretch and just missed on the class drop. She steps up a level off the claim. NO WALK IN THE PARK dueled and ‘dug in’ at 7F but settled for second behind a late-running Parx shipper. PASS THE CASH debuted in a MSW turf sprint at Monmouth before a recent series of fast works on Charles Town’s main track, presumably with blinkers on.

LRL 7th race (3:16 P.M. EST) -- ALOTTACENTS rallied 4-wide on the turn and won through disqualification when drifting favorite FUN LOVIN CRIMINAL bothered him inside the sixteenth pole. He seeks his third consecutive win in a field of mostly nw/3 types. CAVALRY COMMAND set all the pace against the top pair before he, too, drifted in the lane. He can make good use of his speed once again but has to carry it farther. The race time a full second faster than SPONSORED’S near miss in the split division.

LRL 8th race (3:43 P.M. EST) -- WINNERS’ LAUGH ran away from two next-out winners when he won at 6F on the Aqueduct main track in March. More recently on turf, he was out-kicked by two next-out winners and a runner-up – all with 80-plus Beyers. NOTTOWAY won 4 of his last 6 starts – all as the favorite – now sheds 5 pounds with apprentice Martina Rojas aboard for the first time. HE HATE ME, still going strong at age 8, packs late wallop and should make a run at surpassing $500,000 in earnings.

LRL 9th race (4:12 P.M. EST) -- Trainer Lacey Gaudet sends out two live runners, uncoupled in the wagering. GUN RUNNIN’ GAL held off the 1-to-5 favorite at Parx to finish second but gave chase and couldn’t pass the 12-1 upsetter. She could have stablemate GRACEFUL UNION to catch today as she tries to carry her speed on the class drop and stretch out in distance off a :47.4 work over the track. MUCHO MACHO MYRTLE could awaken for a hot barn after she was outrun sprinting in MSW company.

Suggested 50-Cent Ticket
LRL 6th Race: 2, 3, 4, 11
LRL 7th Race: 3, 5, 7
LRL 8th Race: 1, 3, 6
LRL 9th Race: 2, 3, 4
Cost for 50-cent ticket: $54

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-15-2023, 07:29 AM

Jeremy Plonk: Remington Park All-Stakes Pick 5 | Friday

December 14, 2023 | By Jeremy Plonk
Friday night’s Remington Park card features the $300,000 Springboard Mile among six consecutive stakes races. The final five of those make up an all-stakes pick five that we’ll focus on for handicapping purposes. But players don’t forget: Win bets on any Remington Park race Friday will include a $10 money-back special if those bets finish second or third – only when you play with 1/ST BET and Xpressbet.

Here’s how I see the sequence:

Remington Park // Race 6 // Jim Thorpe Stakes
#6 Bobwhite Bobby
#7 C W Prize
#4 Eakly

Comments: The improving #6 Bobwhite Bobby had everything against him pace-wise last time and still earned the victory and is rising in class while peaking. He loses jockey Richard Eramia to Donnie Von Hemel stablemate #5 Eakly, an established stakes winner, which makes sense. #7 C W Prize is a neck away from perfection and also a regular mount for Eramia – but will wind up with national star Luis Saez aboard, sure to shorten his price.

Remington Park // Race 7 // Trapeze Stakes
#1 West Omaha

Comments: Impressive Brad Cox maiden winner #1 West Omaha is bred to route and should handle the two-turn assignment after a pair of Churchill Downs sprints. She’s got a much higher ceiling than these even if facing stakes winners Tx Women for Arts and Miss Code West, the logical alternatives in the event of a scratch. But this is a clear single for me.

Remington Park // Race 8 // She’s All In Stakes
#7 Blameitonmidnight

Comments: The inside four runners all want to be battling for the front as well as one drawn widest, setting this 1 mile and 70-yard event up for a closer. The race shape flatters #7 Blameitonmidnight, who will be ridden by the meet’s runaway leading jockey Stewart Elliott. This filly has won her last two local starts against fellow distaffers and was a good third against the boys last out. The other closer to consider would be Our Divina, but much prefer this one to her.

Remington Park // Race 9 // Jeffrey Hawk Memorial Stakes
#8 Chrome Baby
#10 Pioneer of Medina
#11 Promise Keeper

Comments: Classy shippers #10 Pioneer of Medina and #11 Promise Keeper obviously have kept stronger company lines than these over the years and will be the wagering focus for the national simulcast audience with Flavien Prat and Luis Saez aboard. Both seem capable here as they settle into barn changes. The pace looks solid and sets up for late-running #8 Chrome Baby, the top choice who should be the value against the big names.

Remington Park // Race 10 // Springboard Mile Stakes
#5 Glengarry
#8 Otto the Conqueror
#3 Gettysburg Address

Comments: The Kentucky crowd looks stout here with #5 Glengarry coming off a win in Keeneland’s Bowman Mill Stakes. He’s trained at Oaklawn this winter and could have opted for several spots locally, but instead was sent here as a strong fit. #8 Otto the Conqueror exits a breakout performance on a wet track at Churchill for trainer Steve Asmussen, who has won this race a record-smashing six times. #3 Gettysburg Address is well-drawn for the always-potent duo of Flavien Prat and Brad Cox. He’s got plenty of pedigree to route, so I wouldn’t expect the same fade late here that he displayed in Churchill’s Street Sense stakes when making his first try around two turns.

The Ticket
6,7,4 with 1 with 7 with 8,10,11 with 5,8,3 = $13.50 for $.50

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-15-2023, 07:30 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Fair Grounds - Race #5

#7 Monolith	Wonder if he might be just a touch cheap for this group, but he has pretty reliable route form and handled the turf nicely at Louisiana Downs earlier this year. He's got some of the more reliable finishing in here, and the price might be OK.
#8 Active Duty	Not super thrilled about taking him on another drop after the flat run last time out, but the move to turf while cutting the price again might give him enough room to bounce back. Wouldn't surprise.
#10 Solomon Vandy	He just missed last out and might have found his home at this kind of level on the lawn, and I think he should be in line for another decent spying trip.
Race Summary	Monolith might still have a little upside on the grass, and I think his Louisiana Downs try from this summer at least keeps him the frame at the start of the conversation.

Fair Grounds - Race #6

#2 Beaumont Red	Not totally sold on any of these, but I like that this guy showed a touch of tracking pace in the debut run, as something like that might leave him in a good forward spot behind what pace there is.
#5 Cafe Racer	He makes a lot of sense in a short field without a ton of pace, but I don't totally trust him to see out the final yards of a deep local stretch. Race flow makes him a danger either way.
#6 Pyrenees	Wouldn't be any shock to see him get past these late off the bench, and he has already caught a couple of tough winners in his four-race career. Feels tough to trust.
Race Summary	Beaumont Red needs better, but I don't think this is the deepest special weight we'll see, and he might be just tactical enough to find a spot near the top early with this group.

Fair Grounds - Race #7

#2 Roussette	Would want to get a look at her on the track and tote ahead of this, but it feels like she might be ready enough at first asking in this fun group. Midrange price?
#11 Summer in Adriane	Don't think he's going to have to come forward a whole lot to land this off the Aqueduct debut, and I wouldn't argue too hard with anyone who decided to lean heavily on him.
#12 Last Attack	He hasn't offered up much in the lane in either of those first two starts, but I could see him flashing some pace and sticking around for a piece if he's allowed to control things. Some underneath appeal.
Race Summary	Roussette is intriguing enough that I'd start the discussion there until they get into the paddock, but she's going to have to be ready to handle Summer in Adriane, who seems like she can be pretty tough with any step forward off the debut run.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-15-2023, 07:31 AM

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Laurel Park - Race #1

#4 JACKSON’S DIXIE (7-2)	Right set-up, right price on class rise, gets in light-weighted.
#6 GOLDIENESS (1-1)	Won at Laurel, Parx and Aqueduct in her last six starts on a fast track.
#1 BOUND BY DESTINY (12-1)	Yet to recapture 2yo form, pair of fast works for first route try.
Race Summary	JACKSON’S DIXIE tucked in behind the 9-to-5 pace setter, came out to challenge for a good stretch battle but settled for second. She steps up in class but sheds 8 pounds and should sit a perfect stalking trip in a speed-laden field. Bet to win and place and play a 4-6 exacta box.

Laurel Park - Race #2

#5 ZONA DE AMIGOS (12-1)	Showed a pulse with blinkers against MSW-dropping duo, gets in light.
#4 RETURN FIRE (4-1)	Second in pair of two-turn routes, cuts back to one-turn mile.
#9 MINXZLUCKYSTARFYRE (2-1)	Saved ground, traded stretch bumps with winner, worked bullet since.
Race Summary	ZONA DE AMIGOS, far back early at 7F, showed some late interest on the rail against a class-dropping Aqueduct shipper and class-dropping favorite at Parx. Take a win and place price stab on him with second-time blinkers.

Laurel Park - Race #3

#4 ICE COLD FROSTY (3-1)	Third in triple-key 6F race two back as return winners averaged a 70 Beyer.
#10 PRINS FIRE (2-1)	Hit board in last three starts at this level at various distances.
#7 WIN NO JOKE (12-1)	Decent turf sprint form, also looms a late threat at a big price, use in gimmicks.
Race Summary	ICE COLD FROSTY finished between three next-out winners when third two starts ago, then got up for second behind the pace controlling favorite last out. He gets plenty of speed to stalk today and is a strong play to upgrade to a victory. Bet to win and place and play a 4/7,10/ALL trifecta.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-15-2023, 07:31 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Tampa Bay Downs

PURCHASE

Tampa Bay Downs - Race 2	Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta ($.50 minimum) / Superfecta ($.10 minimum) Pick 3 ($.50 minimum) (Races 2-3-4) / Pick 4 ($.50 minimum) (Races 2-3-4-5) Super High 5
Claiming $5,000 • 1 Mile 40 yards • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 90 • Purse: $18,500 • Post: 1:12P
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON TWO RACES SINCE JUNE 15. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE NOVEMBER 15 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * BARLEEWON: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. ALMASHRIQ: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. ANOTHER DUKE: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. WAR NOVEL: Horse's average winning distance is within half a furlong of today's distance (within 50 yards if a Quarter Horse race).
2	BARLEEWON	8/1	9/2
1	ALMASHRIQ	3/1	5/1
6	ANOTHER DUKE	5/2	8/1
5	WAR NOVEL	6/1	10/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	ALMASHRIQ	1	3/1	Front-runner	87	84	78.5	74.3	63.8
5	WAR NOVEL	5	6/1	Front-runner	86	89	71.2	69.0	59.5
2	BARLEEWON	2	8/1	Alternator/Stalker	85	80	87.2	78.7	76.7
3	GOLDEN TONE	3	12/1	Alternator/Stalker	85	79	57.4	77.4	67.4
7	SEVENTY SEVENTYCAT	7	20/1	Trailer	80	74	63.4	70.4	59.4
6	ANOTHER DUKE	6	5/2	Trailer	86	80	55.2	81.8	73.8
8	PERFORMING ARTS	8	7/2	Alternator/Non-contender	93	87	79.3	63.4	53.9
4	LORD BARNA	4	6/1	Alternator/Non-contender	90	85	72.0	73.8	64.3

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-15-2023, 07:32 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Delta DownsPURCHASE

Delta Downs - Race 9	Exacta / Trifecta (.50 min.) / Superfecta (.10 min)
Maiden Claiming $10,000 • 7 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 84 • Purse: $16,000 • Post: 8:52P
FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $10,000.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Paceless Race. There is no true early speed in this race. * KEY ANGLES * HOLIDAY RUN: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. RED OCTOBER: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Today is a sprint and the horse is carrying at least 120 lbs. R T'S IRON MAN: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. COLE'S SENSATION: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days.
10	HOLIDAY RUN	5/1	6/1
8	RED OCTOBER	12/1	6/1
9	R T'S IRON MAN	7/2	6/1
3	COLE'S SENSATION	8/1	7/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
10	HOLIDAY RUN	10	5/1	Alternator/Stalker	51	47	28.2	43.4	34.4
3	COLE'S SENSATION	3	8/1	Alternator/Stalker	47	43	25.6	39.2	29.7
2	CHIEFS BLANKET	2	2/1	Alternator/Stalker	0	0	0.0	0.0	0.0
8	RED OCTOBER	8	12/1	Trailer	62	54	31.7	27.9	23.9
9	R T'S IRON MAN	9	7/2	Trailer	58	49	13.3	37.5	30.5
1	WILDCATS'S MEOW	1	12/1	Alternator/Trailer	0	0	22.6	36.0	21.5
6	DIXIE'S ASTRO	6	6/1	Alternator/Trailer	0	0	0.0	37.9	27.9
5	CLEARLY A JET	5	15/1	Alternator/Non-contender	39	30	39.4	29.2	14.7
4	UNCLE CHAN	4	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	51	28	34.4	24.0	7.0
7	SMOOTH CUSTOM	7	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	28.6	25.2	6.2

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-15-2023, 07:32 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Oaklawn Park

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 8 - SA - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $35000 Class Rating: 97

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $10,000 OR LESS IN 2022 - 2023. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF TWO RACES SINCE AUGUST 15, 2023 ALLOWED 4 LBS. A RACE SINCE THEN ALLOWED 7 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 6 SHACKLEFORD STRONG 3/1
# 2 BORN FLAWLESS 2/1
# 1 COLONEL VARGO 5/2

SHACKLEFORD STRONG has a solid shot to take this race. Could best this group based on the Equibase speed fig - 95 - of his last race. This equine has a excellent win percentage in dirt sprints. This gelding has been constatntly racing well in his latest outings. BORN FLAWLESS - Is a solid choice - given the 97 speed figure from his most recent race. Has been consistently racing well lately. COLONEL VARGO - Is a definite contender - given the 93 Equibase Speed Fig from his most recent race. Reliable average Equibase Speed Figures in dirt sprint races make this animal a key contender.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-15-2023, 07:32 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Turfway Park - Race #6 - Post: 8:25pm - Maiden Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $13,000 Class Rating: 71

Rating:

#8 LEAD ACTOR (ML=4/1)
#2 TEXCOCO (ML=6/1)
#7 NORBERT (ML=7/2)

LEAD ACTOR - Pauly rode this entrant for the initial time last race out and comes right back this time around. This gelding is in first-rate physical condition right now. Finished third last out and comes back quickly. Three consecutive improved speed ratings (49-55-74) make this one a dominant contender. TEXCOCO - Achard and Foster perform well when they team up. It's hard to beat a +75 return on investment for a rider and handler. Dropped in class last time out, and keeps in that lower level in this race. A good sign this horse is comfortable and ready to go. NORBERT - Horse has improved at least two speed figure points in last two races. I look for that positive trend to continue in today's race. Dropping 6 pounds from last race. Could be a deciding factor today. Has a decent chance to break maiden moving over to the dirt in this race.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 GENERATION (ML=5/2), #5 MATLOCK (ML=8/1),

GENERATION - Don't figure that this mount has what it takes to be victorious this time around. MATLOCK - Earned a quite unimpressive speed rating in the last race in a $5,000 Maiden Claiming race on Nov 30th. Doubtful to see an improved performance off of that number.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Put your money on #8 LEAD ACTOR on the nose if you can get odds of 4/1 or more
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [2,7,8]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [2,7,8] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-15-2023, 07:32 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Penn National

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 4 - Maiden Special Weight - 8.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $27100 Class Rating: 70

FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 123 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 6 INVEST WISELY 3/2
# 4 BACK ON STAGE 3/1
# 2 NANCY SPAIN 9/5

I think INVEST WISELY is a very strong choice. Must be carefully examined - I like the numbers from the last contest. Is hard not to consider given the company run in recently. No strangers to the winner's circle, Russell and Toledo will probably have this filly breaking away from the field. BACK ON STAGE - Has to be carefully examined based on the competitive Equibase Speed Figure earned in the last competition. NANCY SPAIN - Has competitive speed figures and has to be considered for a wager here. Looks very good to be up near the lead at the first call.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-15-2023, 07:32 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Woodbine - Race #1 - Post: 1:05pm - Maiden Claiming - 6.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $36,300 Class Rating: 77

Rating:

#7 TREBUCHET (ML=8/1)
#4 MAGIC TOMAHAWK (ML=10/1)
#3 MIAH SAID (ML=10/1)
#8 CELENTANO (ML=4/1)

TREBUCHET - That 70 fig this gelding registered in his last race tells me he's a major player this time out. MAGIC TOMAHAWK - That last effort must not have been too hard on this horse for him to be able to race again so quickly. MIAH SAID - That last race must not have been too hard on this colt for him to be able to race again so quickly. Classic handicapping theory - 3rd or 4th start after a vacation generally leads to a big effort. Going to run a good one. CELENTANO - You always have to be on the prowl for bankroll building jock/conditioner teams; we have an instance right here. Based on this gelding's recent efforts, he should profit from this shorter distance. This gelding should be at the fitness peak, this far into his form cycle.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 CADFAEL (ML=3/1), #2 FIGHTING IRISH (ML=7/2), #5 ABSOLUTE CHAIRMAN (ML=6/1),

CADFAEL - Once you've got at least ten races at the venue and still have no victories, its tough to break through for a victory. FIGHTING IRISH - Hard to play a horse that lays up for a long time then doesn't hit the board off the extended rest time. When looking at today's class rating, he will have to record a much better speed figure than last time around the track to vie in this dirt sprint. ABSOLUTE CHAIRMAN - Doubtful for this one to make an impact with no success lately in a short distance race.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Bet on #7 TREBUCHET to win if you can get at least 6/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [3,4,7]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass