Saturday 12/16/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Dayton Raceway

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 7 - Post: 6:12 - 1 mile. TROT - Class Rating: 85 - Purse:$7000 - N/W $2251

CONSORTIUM CHOICES
	# 2 DONTFORGETLITTLMAN 5/2
# 5 HUSTLENOMICS 9/2
# 3 PRANK ME 7/2

If you want a competitive play in here, feast your eyes on DONTFORGETLITTLMAN. May provide us a trip to the winner's circle based on competitive recent TrackMaster speed figs - earning an average of 84. Has a huge shot in this event, if he can race to his back class. HUSTLENOMICS - Terrific win stat combined with recent very good performances. We think he can handle this group. Have to support a contender coming out of the Dayton Raceway 5 position. The win clip is tremendous, way above normal. PRANK ME - Exhibits the look of a profitable play, averaging a nifty 86 speed rating. He has respectable class numbers, averaging 87. Worth considering for a bet in this contest.

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Handicapped by TrackMaster Greg at Flamboro Downs

P#	PP	HORSE NAME	M/L	DRIVER - WIN%	POINTS
RACE 9
1	1	AUSSIE LOVER	9/5	Ryan, Jason D - 14	470.94
4	4	LION ON LANDON	8/1	Lareau, Stephane - 0	441.13
5	5	CAVIARS TRIUMPH	4/1	Coulter, Scott - 15	432.20
2	2	HEAVY DUDE E	3/1	Desroche, Ryan P - 8	426.95
3	3	TOSCANO GIRL	6/1	Harris, J Bradley - 14	423.20
7	7	FINAL DREAM	5/2	Fillion, Samuel - 9	421.73
6	6	THIRDTIMESTHEDREAM	9/2	Haughan, Anthony P - 11	401.19
8	8	SPICY RED HEAD	10/1	Mackenzie, Paul G - 8	386.51

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Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Century Mile

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 2 - Post: 6:39 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 61 - Purse:$6300 - CLAIMING 10,000

CONSORTIUM CHOICES
	# 7 NEEDABANKLOAN 5/2
# 4 TROPICAL DRAGON 4/1
# 1 HERD IMMUNITY 2/1

The consensus in this one is that NEEDABANKLOAN is the one to beat. The handicapping team knows that speed is King in harness racing. This harness racer will unlock our way to a nice trip to the winner's circle. The panel of smart guys noted a huge outing out of this nice horse last time. Hoping for a duplicate of that to end up in the winner's circle. Talk about a dynamic duo, Campbell and Lambert have some of the best driver/conditioner rankings at the track. TROPICAL DRAGON - This interesting entrant will have to be a wager, based on the excellent driver-trainer win pct. You have to like a horse that wins regularly, very impressive win percentage. HERD IMMUNITY - Amazing in the money rate for Hudon and this nice horse. A really good likelihood to get the score. Worth looking at here based on the rankings in the speed fig department alone.

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Handicapped by TrackMaster Greg at Cumberland Raceway

P#	PP	HORSE NAME	M/L	DRIVER - WIN%	POINTS
RACE 9
4	4	NOVELLA SEELSTER	2/1	Stevenson, Michael - 10	432.89
1	1	CASH VAUGHAN	4/5	O'Dea, Todd - 8	402.74
3	3	PEMBROKE SCORPIO	8/1	Harrington, Andrew - 10	399.54
5	5	JEREMES GENERAL	7/1	Switzer, Kevin Jr - 19	388.22
2	2	AMERICAN FIGHTER	15/1	Deslandes, Dan - 13	378.27
6	6	SUPREME MACH N	18/1	Ranger, Bruce - 20	354.31

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Handicapped by TrackMaster Greg at Freehold Raceway

P#	PP	HORSE NAME	M/L	DRIVER - WIN%	POINTS
RACE 10
2	2	STRENGTHANDHONOR N	2/1	Ginsburg, Vincent - 16	522.20
5	5	PASSA-GRILLE BEACH	9/2	Pelling, Jack - 16	520.00
7	7	THREE IN HEAVEN A	12/1	Smith, Steve - 8	482.56
1	1	MCCLINCHIE N	7/1	Vallee, Shaun - 10	481.98
4	4	JUST PLAIN LOCO	6/1	Miller, Tyler - 14	480.77
3	3	ONTO EL DORADO N	5/2	Ahle, Johnathan - 13	471.06
6	6	DELESTON	20/1	Siegelman, Austin - 18	450.26
8	8	ARQUE HANOVER	20/1	Abbatiello, Eric - 8	420.97

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Handicapped by TrackMaster Greg at Northfield Park

P#	PP	HORSE NAME	M/L	DRIVER - WIN%	POINTS
RACE 13
3	3	THINK OF GALAXIES	5/1	Lems, Chris - 12	543.27
8	8	ALEXA SKYE	5/2	Davis, Billy Jr - 16	529.37
4	4	TREACHEROUS PENNY	3/1	Merriman, Aaron - 24	517.87
2	2	BETTER DAYS AHEAD	20/1	Ebersole, Luke - 9	511.95
5	5	MYSTICAL VIRGIN	25/1	Sugg, Kurt - 10	511.55
6	6	A DELIGHTFUL ACT N	6/1	Myers, Hunter - 13	504.61
9	9	A GIRL THAT TWIRLS	7/1	Deaton, Elliott - 11	500.88
7	7	SMOTHASTENESEWISKY	9/1	Stahl, Ryan - 9	490.29
1	1	MIKI THE CLOWN	25/1	Hanners, Luke - 13	487.32

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Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Flamboro Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 7 - Post: 8:53 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 66 - Purse:$4300 - FILLIES & MARES - CLAIMING $8000.

CONSORTIUM CHOICES
	# 9 NEVADA ROCK 5/2
# 2 RUNAWAY HEIRESS 9/5
# 3 EARLYBIRD SPECIAL 4/1

NEVADA ROCK sure does look ready to dominate. With a 70 avg class figure, this horse has one of the most solid class edges in the group. Achieved a 63 TrackMaster speed fig last time out. A duplicate effort here should get the victory in this race. Formidable driver/handler, winning 22 percent of the time. Looks like a solid bet. RUNAWAY HEIRESS - If performance in the last contest is any indicator, this nice horse will have a very great shot in this event. High last race speed rating. Looks like a strong choice in this pack and her better than average winning percentage says she has the raw talent to dominate here. EARLYBIRD SPECIAL - She has been competing quite well and the speed figs are among the finest in the field of starters. Seems to have a very good class advantage based on the participants she has faced.

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TALKING HORSES
Saturday December 16, 2023
AQUEDUCT
Sara Elbadwi
Race 1 5 - 3 - 2 - 4
Race 2 7 - 3 - 5 - 8
Race 3 9 - 2 - 1A - 5
Race 4 7 - 1 - 2 - 3
Race 5 5 - 3 - 10 - 4
Race 6 9 - 7 - 6 - 10
Race 7 6 - 5 - 8 - 4
Race 8 1 - 7 - 8 - 9
Race 9 9 - 3 - 6 - 12
Race 10 12 - 2 - 10 - 6

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TimeformUS Race Analysis
Picks & Plays for Saturday, December 16
by David Aragona

AQUEDUCT
Visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.

PICKS

Race 1: 5 - 3 - 4 - 2
Race 2: 8 - 5 - 3 - 2
Race 3: 3 - 1A - 2 - 5
Race 4: 2 - 7 - 8 - 1
Race 5: 4 - 2 - 5 - 10
Race 6: 1 - 6 - 7 - 9
Race 7: 6 - 5 - 4 - 1
Race 8: 2 - 1 - 7 - 8
Race 9: 1 - 12 - 9 - 2
Race 10: 6 - 2 - 10 - 13

FAIR VALUE PLAYS
(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)


RACE 3

Another David Jacobson entry, another frustrating wait for scratches to be released. Typically, Jacobson scratches part of these entries when he names two different riders, but it’s anyone’s guess as to which half will participate. The stronger part of the entry is obviously Thunderian (#1A), who was in great form heading into the fall, reeling off two consecutive victories at the Belmont at the Big A meet. He’s kept a busy schedule since then, wheeling back in a week at Laurel before making another start two weeks later at Penn National. That flurry of activity appeared to catch up with him as he lost as the 2-5 favorite. Yet he still earned a respectable speed figure that day, and faced a better field when fading to fourth last time. He’s capable with his best effort, but I’m not sure we’ll see it as he comes back in just 10 days. Kupp (#2) could also take money, though he could have a difficult task wiring this field from the rail. There’s other speed drawn outside, and he beat a softer field for the level when he won in early November. He’s been in solid form since the Michelle Nevin claim, but doesn’t figure to be much of a price either. My top pick is a horse who finished far behind Kupp last time. Joking Way (#3) was barely ever involved in that $40k claimer, uncharacteristically sluggish away from the gate and ridden conservatively throughout. Something was apparently amiss that day, but I find it encouraging that he’s now back at the same class level with no drop despite the fact that he was only claimed for $14k. The connections aren’t ready to lose him, and he does have back class that would make him competitive against this bunch. The blinkers go on this time, which should help to keep him more engaged during the race, and he appears to have worked decently in the last month.

Fair Value:
#3 JOKING WAY, at 10-1 or greater


RACE 4

Coppa Girl (#7) is obviously the horse to beat as she stretches back out to 9 furlongs after rebounding nicely from a poor effort in her return from a freshening last time. She didn’t break that well on Nov. 26, but advanced into the race willingly and produced a strong kick. She was just unfortunate to meet recent Linda Rice claim Ain’t Broke, who delivered a huge effort win in fast time. That filly returned to win her next start just as impressively, validating Coppa Girl’s last-out 109 TimeformUS Speed Figure. Stretching back out is a bit of a question mark given how poorly she ran going this distance at Saratoga. Yet she had some trouble in the early stages that day and probably didn’t deliver a true effort. I’m not against her, but I just didn’t think she’d offer much value. She’s Mo Bubbly (#8) is the other horse likely to take significant money in this spot as she gets back to dirt. Even though she’s spent half of her career on turf, she’s achieved her best results on dirt. However, she earned her two highest speed figures this summer at Saratoga in off the turf races where she was primarily beating horses meant for grass. She also rode a strong speed bias when she won by over 10 lengths going this distance on Aug. 30. I actually prefer a horse who finished behind She’s Mo Bubbly in that spot. Paris Style (#2)took a while to break through, and was developing the look of a professional maiden after settling for minor awards in a series of races this summer and fall. However, she was compromised by the speed bias when she chased home She’s Mo Bubbly in August, and then was caught wide against a dead rail two back on Oct. 19. She clearly ran the best race that day to just miss despite the disadvantageous trip. She was overdue for that maiden victory last time, and she achieved it quite convincingly. I like her stretching back out to 9 furlongs, and she’s drawn well inside. Ken McPeek is 15 for 90 (17%, $2.68 ROI) with last-out maiden winners in dirt routes over the past 5 years.

Fair Value:
#2 PARIS STYLE, at 7-2 or greater


RACE 5

Linda Rice has entered a pair of new acquisitions in this starter allowance event. Natural Harbor (#5) is the more immediately appealing of the two as he makes his first start since getting purchased at the Keeneland November sale for $80k following his most recent victory. He earned a solid 99 TimeformUS Speed Figure for that performance, and fits here with a similar effort. However, he is a horse who wants to be forwardly placed, and there appears to be plenty of speed in this field, particularly among the two runners drawn alongside him in the starting gate. I’m just as intrigued by Rice’s other entrant Bayou Spirit (#2), who figures to be a more enticing price. The sharp rise in class off his $20k maiden claiming win is notable for a trainer who typically spots her horses realistically and is currently in pursuit of a NYRA training title. Rice is 10 for 36 (28%, $2.87 ROI) first off the claim in dirt allowance races over the past 5 years. This horse is tough to like based on form. He was much the best last time, bulling his way through traffic, but beat a vastly inferior field in slow time. Yet one can only assume better is on the horizon. My top pick is another recent maiden winner. Screaming Uncle (#4) finally broke through in his sixth career start, making his second start off the claim for Chris Englehart. He gamely chased home Vodka Mardini in his first start for the new barn, and improved last time to win quite convincingly with a strong 104 TimeformUS Speed Figure. That effort was validated when runner-up Venge retuned to finish a good fourth at the maiden special weight level with a 103 TimeformUS Speed Figure. He seems to have found his niche going this 7-furlong distance, and figures to perform well here if he maintains his current form.

Fair Value:
#4 SCREAMING UNCLE, at 7-2 or greater


RACE 6

Locke and Key (#7) seems like the horse to beat in this state-bred allowance event after picking up minor awards at this level in each of his last two starts since the trainer switch to James Ryerson. He got a good setup when closing for third two back, but was a little disappointing last time when unable to make up much ground on Be the Boss. He is most effective when he gets a strong pace up front, and it’s possible that this pace could heat up with a few speed runners in here. That situation would also benefit Amedeus Music (#6) as he turns back in distance. He has had more recent success over route distances, but he’s won sprinting in the past. He ran better than it looks two back, making a premature move after a slow start. Then last time he was more engaged early but couldn’t catch the streaking Mama’s Gold. I like this spot for him, and he appears to be in strong form. My top pick at a bigger price is Leo and Royal (#1). He finished 11 lengths behind Amedeus Music when they met this summer, but he’s come a long way since then. He won two races in a row against softer competition at Finger Lakes this fall before fading two back after getting involved in an early duel. He bounced back nicely when returned to the NYRA circuit last time, showing good early speed and battling on gamely for third in a race that otherwise fell apart. That 103 TimeformUS Speed Figure makes him just as fast as the favorites in this spot. He’s primarily gone longer than this, but I don’t mind him turning back and he figures to fly under the radar after going off at a big price last time.

Fair Value:
#1 LEO AND ROYAL, at 6-1 or greater


RACE 8

I’m not trying to beat likely favorite My Shea D Lady (#2), who I’m viewing as a likely winner in an otherwise confusing race. These Stallion Series stakes generally come up much weaker than their New York-bred stakes counterparts due to the exclusion of state-breds by Kentucky sires. My Shea D Lady has simply been facing tougher company in her recent series of stakes attempts, and gets subtle but significant class relief in this spot. I didn’t think she appreciated the sloppy track she encountered two back, and I wasn’t thrilled with the ride she got last time. Jose Ortiz was pretty passive through the opening stages of that race and let her drop out of contention on the turn before finally asking her in the lane. She finished strongly but was given too much to do. She had shown quality prior to that, and I don’t think she’s regressed as much as her form might suggest. I’m just not as convinced by other who figure to take money. Artemis Girl (#10) did meet tougher competition in the Tepin Stakes last time, but both of her starts have come on turf and she’s a total wild card switching to dirt here. Her pedigree does lean a bit more towards grass, and I just wouldn’t want to take any kind of short price on her. Book of Wisdom (#7) fits from a speed figure standpoint, but she’s a maiden who has had chances. I’m not sure that added distance helps her, and others might have more upside. Walk With Me (#8) has a right to improve for a barn that tends to improve horses with experience. However, she had all the best of it on the front end in her debut and beat a field of dubious quality. The interesting lightly raced option might be Miss Lao (#1), who exits a live race from which multiple horses have returned to substantially improve their speed figures. Among those is winner Dolomite, who returned to finish third in the Grade 2 Demoiselle. This filly has more of a turf pedigree, but she does have upside in her second start. I just couldn’t warm up to anyone else enough to go against My Shea D Lady, who just seems very logical as she catches the right field.

Fair Value:
#2 MY SHEA D LADY, at 2-1 or greater


RACE 9

B D Saints (#9) is probably the most talented horse in this Great White Way division of the New York Stallion Series. I’m just not sure that he’s best suited to these conditions. He seems to have a bit more preference for turf, and his only competitive dirt race came over a sloppy, sealed track going a mile. That dirt effort was a very good one, as he closed well for second behind top New York-bred 2-year-old El Grande O. Yet he broke very slowly and lacked any early speed that day, needing every bit of the mile to reach contention. I’m just not convinced that this is a spot that plays to his strengths, though he does figure to be charging late. Brick Ambush (#12) hasn’t yet run as fast as the morning line favorite, but I was encouraged that he showed improved tactical speed when he broke his maiden last time. He forged to the lead in upper stretch and was game to keep finding more to the wire after chasing a fast pace. He needs another step forward here, but he’s drawn well outside and is bred for this kind of spot, as a full-brother to Fifth Avenue division winner Yo Cuz. I just thought these two could dominate the wagering and wanted to keep an open mind regarding at least one other candidate. Antonio of Venice (#1) was ready to fire on debut when he contested the pace and gamely battled the talented Whatchatalkinabout to the wire back in May. This colt was a little disappointing in his next few starts, even when he won his maiden at Saratoga with a mediocre speed figure. Yet he took a step in the right direction last time at Finger Lakes, battling three rivals to the wire, all of which would be major players in this spot. His 101 TimeformUS Speed Figure is the highest number in this race, and he’s unlikely to be a short price off that performance. Now he stretches out to 7 furlongs for the first time with a sprint pedigree, but at least he has plenty of foundation. Unlike others who have been hustled into this race, he’s been pointing to it for a couple of months, showing a steady worktab leading into this.

Fair Value:
#1 ANTONIO OF VENICE, at 4-1 or greater

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Gulfstream Park Hotlist - December 16
Dec. 14, 2023

By Bob Ehalt and Matt Shifman

Hot List Key:

A : A preferred horse to watch B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches in the final 3 minutes and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4th or worse
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.

2nd race – (8) Exchange Day takes a big class drop and should prove best here. (1) Frosted Faith should appreciate a shorter distance. (7) Kingpin won nicely on an all-weather surface last time and should be a factor here. (9) Heals the Soul won his last and cannot be overlooked. Betting strategy: 8 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-7-8-9.

4th race – (2) Enticing Sunset gets back on turf and can respond with a winning effort. (7) Spread the Risk is a firster who can be a factor here. (6) Lady O’Brien seems primed for a big effort in her debut. (3) Lets Go Koko should make a smooth jump to turf. Betting strategy: 2 to win, place. Exacta box: 2-3-6-7.

6th race – (7) Lucy’s Cookie descends into a claimer and can handle this field. (1) Isayso was second in her last two starts and should be the one to fear. (6) Mo Twilight may wake up in a claimer. (8) No Violence is worth a look off the Joseph claim. Betting strategy: 7 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-5-7-8.

8th race – (3) Mitole Magic was third in his two starts and seems set to break her maiden here. (7) St. Susan debuts for Clement and should be a main threat. (5) Agra disappointed last time but can bounce back here. (1) Kalispera makes her U.S. debut and cannot be overlooked. Betting strategy: 3 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-3-5-7.

11th race – (4) F Five has a nice turn of speed and may not look back here. (5) Six Minus could be a stretch threat at this distance. (10) Shawdyshawdyshawdy will be a factor on his best try. (8) McLovin has a win at this distance but faces a tougher field here. Betting strategy: 4 to win, place. Exacta box: 4-5-8-10.

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Aqueduct Hotlist - December 16
Dec. 15, 2023

By Matt Shifman and Bob Ehalt

Hot List Key:
A: A preferred horse to watch B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4th or worst
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.

1st race [Md Sp Wt, 6F] – (3) Livehappy (B) lunged and checked at the break of his second start and finished a distant fourth. (2) Have You Heard had a pair of fourths with one on dirt and one on turf and gets blinkers on. (4) Ridgewood Runner set the pace and finished second two races back and had a wide trip last time. (5) Start Mo Matic will debut with some fast bullet works showing.

8th race [NY, NY Stallion Series, 7F] – (5) Tour Jete (A) got off to an awkward start and steadied and rallied from last to second. (6) My Perfect Mistake was a debut winner as the favorite and opened a clear lead from a stalking position. (8) Walk With Me was a front-end winner of his debut. (11) Soloshot won her first two starts by a combined 10 lengths while racing on the lead in a maiden special weight and a NY-bred stakes race.

9th race [NY, NY Stallion Series, 7F] – (9) B D Saints was a maiden winner on the grass against state-breds and then tried the Pilgrim (G2). Last time he broke at the back and rallied for second in the Sleepy Hollow at Aqueduct which was scheduled for the main track that turned out to be muddy and sealed. (12) Brick Ambush was well bet in both starts and was a maiden winner at the Big A by two lengths going a mile. (1) Antonio of Venice was last seen in September in a state-bred stakes race where he set the pace and then drifted back to fourth. Since then trainer Rudy Rodriguez has had a hot barn. (11) Solo’s Fury gets a pass from a bad effort last time on a muddy track after a second and a maiden win to start his career. In his maiden victory he actually beat Brick Ambush.

10th race [NY, Md 30000, 6F] – (2) Sol Emperatriz (B) set the pace in her debut and ran second but was a voided claim in that Oct. 1 start. (12) No Layups (D) was rank in her initial start in a maiden special weight for Chad Brown at 6-1. (7) Going for Glory (D) had a second-place finish that came between two poor efforts on sloppy tracks. (10) Mangia will get blinkers on after running third in her first race in a maiden special weight for NY-breds.

Best bets: B D Saints (9th); Sol Emperatriz (10th). Best value: Livehappy (1st); Tour Jete (8th).

Saturday Pick 3 Special --
The Saturday Special $1 Pick 3 covers races 8-10 which includes two $500,000 NY Stallion Series stakes

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Keeneland Select Pick of the Day | December 16, 2023
Dec. 15, 2023

Race 8 at Oaklawn | Saturday December 16 | Post Time 4:46 PM Eastern

Allowance / Optional Claiming | Purse $142,000 | Six Furlongs | Three Year Olds and Upward


Analysis and top win contenders:

Count de Monet (2) returns as a fresh horse from seven months off, and that fact as well as some recent, incredibly fast workouts signify he is going to show the same early speed he did in his first three starts, two when as fresh as he will be here. In his career debut in the summer of 2022, Count de Monet began second then quickly took the lead before coasting home in a field of 10. One month later he led from the start and dominated by nearly seven lengths. After a short break, Count de Monet started at Oaklawn in the Advent Stakes for two year olds, winning by three lengths after stalking the pacesetters in third position in the early stages. He went off form after that, running poorly in four straight races. However, since returning to serious training last month at Oaklawn, he’s been working sensationally and given the strong 94 Equibase Speed Figure he earned winning the Advent Stakes 53 weeks ago is good enough to win, and that in this field there are few, if any, horses which might want to lead early, Count de Monet could be very tough to catch, and beat. As if that weren’t enough, trainer Tom Swearingen has won with three of the last four horses he has brought back from a layoff of six months or more, and ALL here at Oaklawn.

Stayed in for Half (8) is the other horse with the bulk of the probability to win. He has a very strong record of 5-4-1 in 16 races so has been first or second in more than half his starts, and he has a win and a runner-up finish from his only two races at Oaklawn. This year, Stayed in for Half has only finished worse than second once in ix races, and if he repeat the effort put forth winning on the dirt on August 24, earning a 101 Equibase Figure in the process, he might earn his sixth career victory.

Then there is a quartet of horses with a chance of completing the exacta if the top two contenders don’t run one-two. Those are Navy Seal (1), Derby Date (3), Nautical Star (4) and Vulcan (10). Three of the four have more second place finishes than wins in their careers and all have recent efforts which if repeated might be good enough to earn a piece of the purse.

Bets:

Win: Both Count de Monet (2) and Stayed in for Half (8) can be considered for win bets at odds of 2 to 1 or higher.

Exactas: Count de Monet (2) and Stayed in for Half (8) over Count de Monet (2) Stayed in for Half (8), Navy Seal (1), Derby Date (3), Nautical Star (4) and Vulcan (10).

Doubles:

Race 8: Count de Monet (2), Stayed in for Half (8) WITH Race 9: Speed Bias (4), Double Crown (5)

Race 9 at Oaklawn | Saturday December 16 | Post Time 5:14 PM Eastern

Tinsel Stakes | Purse $200,000 | One Mile and One Eighth | Three Year Olds and Upward

Analysis and top win contenders:

Speed Bias (4) drops in class off a neck defeat in a three horse photo in the Grade 2 Fayette Stakes at Keeneland at the end of October. He ran about as gamely as a horse can run in that race as he sat in second in the early stages, about a half-length from the leader, for the first six furlongs, then moved up to engage and battled head-and-head for the lead for the entire last quarter mile. That effort was similar to the race he ran in May when he battled nose and nose to the wire in the Grade 3 Pimlico Special, losing by inches on the wire to multiple stakes winner Rattle N’ Roll. Speed Bias has also demonstrated he likes running at Oaklawn, with four first or second place finishes in six races here over the course of his career. In the Pimlico Special, Speed Bias earned a career-best 107 Equibase Speed Figure, which he came very close to last month in the Fayette, where he earned a 104 figure. Repeating either effort here appears likely and that gives this hard-knocking colt slight preference among a pair with the bulk of the probability to win.

Double Crown (5), like Speed Bias, has run some races this year which make him a very strong contender if he can repeat them, and like Speed Bias, one of those was his most recent. Double Crown finished second in a stakes race at Laurel last month, earning a 103 figure, and three before that he won the Polynesian Stakes with a 105 figure. Although he has more second place finishes (10) in his career as compared to wins (8), that’s not much different to Speed Bias, who has two wins and five second place finishes in his career. Stretching out from seven furlongs to nine Is not a concern, and with his off-the-pace sunning style, with a couple of strong need-the-lead type in Strong Quality (2) and Ardanwood (6) likely to insure a fast pace, Double Crown may be passing the tiring pacesetters for the win in this situation.

War Campaign (1) can be considered for second on exacta tickets played. He finished in that position one before last in a highly rated allowance race at Keeneland, and in the same spot this past July in the Hanshin Stakes.

Bets:

Win: Win bet should be considered on both Speed Bias (4) and on Double Crown (5) at odds of 5 to 2 or more.

Exactas: Speed Bias (4) and Double Crown (5) over Speed Bias (4), Double Crown (5) and War Campaign (1).

[ConleyPicks]

Tampa Bay Downs Tip Sheet - December 16
Dec. 15, 2023

Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 69% of the time at this track.

RACE #1 $8,000 CLAIMING
1 1/16 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 1:16 PM ET

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 5-2 5 Katz That Gal J E Morelos
PLACE 6-1 3 Bella Miura H R Diaz Jr.
SHOW 5-1 8 What a Knockout J A Vargas Jr.
WILD CARD 3-1 1 Amazingness A A Gallardo

ALTERNATE 1 9-2 7 Rowdy Daisy R Feliciano
ALTERNATE 2 15-1 10 Explosive Skies A Santos

* EXACTA: 5-3 BOX, 3-8 BOX, 8-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/5/8 BOX, 1/3/8 BOX


RACE #2 $8,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING
5 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 1:45 PM ET

BEST BET: #14 BEER BALI

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 5-2 14 Beer Bali S Camacho
PLACE 7-2 4 Allies Halo S Spanabel
SHOW 9-2 8 Luna Amarilla M R Scaldaferri
WILD CARD 5-1 2 Azteca Girl C Marquez

ALTERNATE 1 20-1 9 Rain of Blessing C E Rojas
ALTERNATE 2 10-1 1 Shes That Girl G Wales

* EXACTA: 14-4 BOX, 4-8 BOX, 8-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4/8/14 BOX, 2/4/8 BOX


RACE #3 $25,000 CLAIMING
6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:13 PM ET

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 3-1 1 A Kiss for Khozan A A Gallardo
PLACE 2-1 3 Tiki Bar M Meneses
SHOW 6-1 7 Burn the Breeze J E Morelos
WILD CARD 12-1 5 Shemightdancesalsa J C Ferrer

ALTERNATE 1 10-1 4 Miss Easy L Sosa
ALTERNATE 2 8-1 8 Bachelorette J Hiraldo

* EXACTA: 1-3 BOX, 3-7 BOX, 7-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/3/7 BOX, 3/5/7 BOX


RACE #4 $20,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING
6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:42 PM ET

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 3-1 2 Magic Hooh J E Morelos
PLACE 5-1 9 The Big Calico J Alicea
SHOW 4-1 1 King Matina S Marin
WILD CARD 12-1 5 Rockys Express L Sosa

ALTERNATE 1 15-1 6 Shady Boy J C Ferrer
ALTERNATE 2 15-1 10 American Day M Fuentes

* EXACTA: 2-9 BOX, 9-1 BOX, 1-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/9 BOX, 1/5/9 BOX


RACE #5 $24,500 STARTER OPTIONAL CLAIMING
1 MILE 40 YARDS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:12 PM ET

BEST BET: #7 TIZ HERSELF

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 9-5 7 Tiz Herself D Centeno
PLACE 5-1 9 Waterworks K Gomez
SHOW 6-1 3 Chem Major A S Arroyo
WILD CARD 5-1 6 Aferdita A Santos

ALTERNATE 1 4-1 5 Our Fantasy J Hiraldo
ALTERNATE 2 12-1 4 Domineering J C Ferrer

* EXACTA: 7-9 BOX, 9-3 BOX, 3-6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/7/9 BOX, 3/6/9 BOX


RACE #6 $6,250 CLAIMING
7 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:45 PM ET

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 3-1 10 Practical Way D Centeno
PLACE 8-1 3 Hop and Scotch C Marquez
SHOW 6-1 2 High Brow A A Gallardo
WILD CARD 7-2 5 Six Whips G Maldonado

ALTERNATE 1 15-1 7 Instigated C Cedeno
ALTERNATE 2 12-1 1 Hail Southern A A Rodriguez

* EXACTA: 10-3 BOX, 3-2 BOX, 2-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/3/10 BOX, 2/3/5 BOX


RACE #7 $24,500 STARTER OPTIONAL CLAIMING
1 1/16 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:15 PM ET

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 3-1 1 Passage of Lines M J Sanchez
PLACE 8-1 10 Just Plain Ornery C Cedeno
SHOW 8-1 11 Exacting A S Arroyo
WILD CARD 30-1 12 Pyron J E Morelos

ALTERNATE 1 7-2 2 Winters Ghost D Centeno
ALTERNATE 2 8-1 7 San Costantino R D Allen Jr.

* EXACTA: 1-10 BOX, 10-11 BOX, 11-12 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/10/11 BOX, 10/11/12 BOX


RACE #8 $53,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING
7 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:45 PM ET

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 6-1 6 Charging Aero J L Castanon
PLACE 3-1 1 Desert Ruler A S Arroyo
SHOW 9-2 9 Just Beat the Odds S Camacho
WILD CARD 5-2 4 Spikezone M J Sanchez

ALTERNATE 1 8-1 7 Wildhunch K Gomez
ALTERNATE 2 12-1 10 Silver Style J A Batista

* EXACTA: 6-1 BOX, 1-9 BOX, 9-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/6/9 BOX, 1/4/9 BOX


RACE #9 $8,000 CLAIMING
5 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 5:15 PM ET

BEST BET: #11 TAYYARA

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 4-1 11 Tayyara M J Sanchez
PLACE 8-1 2 Miss Polo Bar A A Gallardo
SHOW 3-1 7 R Tootsie Glitter J C Ferrer
WILD CARD 20-1 8 Sturdy Girl C Cedeno

ALTERNATE 1 8-1 4 Bingo Star S Camacho
ALTERNATE 2 15-1 5 Luna West J L Alonso

* EXACTA: 11-2 BOX, 2-7 BOX, 7-8 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/7/11 BOX, 2/7/8 BOX

[ConleyPicks]

Oaklawn Park Tip Sheet - December 16
Dec. 15, 2023

Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 68% of the time at this track

RACE #1 $12,500 MAIDEN CLAIMING
1 1/16 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:30 PM ET

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 4-5 1 Fightn Ready F Arrieta
PLACE 3-1 3 Deluca E Esquivel
SHOW 4-1 8 Mo Moves C A Torres
WILD CARD 12-1 7 My Brother Mike R A Vazquez

ALTERNATE 1 30-1 4 Lucky Super Nova C J Hernandez
ALTERNATE 2 20-1 2 Strickland C Landeros

* EXACTA: 1-3 BOX, 3-8 BOX, 8-7 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/3/8 BOX, 3/7/8 BOX


RACE #2 $7,500 CLAIMING
6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:58 PM ET

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 4-1 14 Rare Stripe R A Vazquez
PLACE 7-2 7 Bayron L S Quinonez
SHOW 15-1 5 Campisi W De La Cruz
WILD CARD 5-1 2 Morning Snow F Fuentes

ALTERNATE 1 10-1 8 Trappe Valley K Harr
ALTERNATE 2 6-1 10 Strings C A Torres

* EXACTA: 14-7 BOX, 7-5 BOX, 5-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 5/7/14 BOX, 2/5/7 BOX


RACE #3 $142,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING
6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:26 PM ET

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 8-1 8 Summer Shoes C Bailey
PLACE 2-1 7 Leeloo R Santana Jr.
SHOW 7-2 5 Back to Ohio F Arrieta
WILD CARD 6-1 4 Dealing Justice R A Vazquez

ALTERNATE 1 4-1 2 Chandana C A Torres
ALTERNATE 2 10-1 9 Connie K J R Leparoux

* EXACTA: 8-7 BOX, 7-5 BOX, 5-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 5/7/8 BOX, 4/5/7 BOX


RACE #4 $142,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING
6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:54 PM ET

BEST BET: #4 RUNAWAY JACK

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 3-1 4 Runaway Jack E Gallardo
PLACE 2-1 7 Super Ocho J R Leparoux
SHOW 7-2 6 Classic Car Wash F Geroux
WILD CARD 6-1 5 Life Is Hard R Santana Jr.

ALTERNATE 1 8-1 3 Walkers Win F Arrieta
ALTERNATE 2 20-1 8 Manuelito W De La Cruz

* EXACTA: 4-7 BOX, 7-6 BOX, 6-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4/6/7 BOX, 5/6/7 BOX


RACE #5 $20,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING
6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:22 PM ET

BEST BET: #3 BIG BOLT

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 10-1 3 Big Bolt W De La Cruz
PLACE 5-2 5 Chip Shortage R A Vazquez
SHOW 5-1 11 Babe in the Woods J R Leparoux
WILD CARD 3-1 12 Global Risk C A Torres

ALTERNATE 1 8-1 2 Lil Gin N Class L A Fuentes
ALTERNATE 2 30-1 7 Erumpent N Juarez

* EXACTA: 3-5 BOX, 5-11 BOX, 11-12 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/5/11 BOX, 5/11/12 BOX


RACE #6 $115,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:50 PM ET

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 5-2 9 Cleopatra Selene R Santana Jr.
PLACE 2-1 10 Bang Bang Fury F Arrieta
SHOW 12-1 5 Arijanas Pearl E Gallardo
WILD CARD 4-1 2 Tale of La Bee R Zimmerman

ALTERNATE 1 20-1 4 Catholic Sue K R Jordan
ALTERNATE 2 12-1 8 The Big Calhouna J R Leparoux

* EXACTA: 9-10 BOX, 10-5 BOX, 5-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 5/9/10 BOX, 2/5/10 BOX


RACE #7 $115,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 5:18 PM ET

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 4-1 9 Pineland F Arrieta
PLACE 5-2 7 Mr. Keating R Santana Jr.
SHOW 3-1 3 Raging M Chuan
WILD CARD 9-2 8 Wicked Again K J Asmussen

ALTERNATE 1 12-1 2 Millers Rite J R Leparoux
ALTERNATE 2 20-1 1 Trabrs Creed E Esquivel

* EXACTA: 9-7 BOX, 7-3 BOX, 3-8 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/7/9 BOX, 3/7/8 BOX


RACE #8 $142,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING
6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 5:46 PM ET

BEST BET: #5 SHOOTERS SHOOT

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 3-1 5 Shooters Shoot M Chuan
PLACE 5-2 4 Nautical Star C Landeros
SHOW 4-1 8 Stayed in for Half R A Vazquez
WILD CARD 12-1 3 Derby Date W De La Cruz

ALTERNATE 1 20-1 7 Exxel E Gallardo
ALTERNATE 2 10-1 1 Navy Seal E Esquivel

* EXACTA: 5-4 BOX, 4-8 BOX, 8-3 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4/5/8 BOX, 3/4/8 BOX


RACE #9 $200,000 STAKES
1 1/8 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 6:14 PM ET

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 3-1 4 Speed Bias R A Vazquez
PLACE 5-2 2 Strong Quality F Geroux
SHOW 12-1 6 Ardanwood C Landeros
WILD CARD 9-2 3 Seize the Night F Arrieta

ALTERNATE 1 5-1 7 Denington J R Leparoux
ALTERNATE 2 10-1 5 Double Crown R Santana Jr.

* EXACTA: 4-2 BOX, 2-6 BOX, 6-3 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/4/6 BOX, 2/3/6 BOX


RACE #10 $140,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING
6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 6:40 PM ET

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 12-1 13 Chai Tea W De La Cruz
PLACE 5-1 5 Sassy Lass C Bailey
SHOW 7-2 12 Fly Like the Wind C A Torres
WILD CARD 4-1 8 Hamazing Debate R Zimmerman

ALTERNATE 1 12-1 2 Lassie My Girl C Landeros
ALTERNATE 2 8-1 7 Rivercrest Girl L S Quinonez

* EXACTA: 13-5 BOX, 5-12 BOX, 12-8 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 5/12/13 BOX, 5/8/12 BOX

[ConleyPicks]

Fair Grounds Tip Sheet - December 16
Dec. 15, 2023

Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 64% of the time at this track

RACE #1 $5,000 CLAIMING
6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:45 PM ET

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 7-2 7 Chads Flash M Murrill
PLACE 7-5 4 Reverent E Nieves
SHOW 5-1 5 Problem Child C McMahon
WILD CARD 9-2 3 Ourquickdrawmcgraw S Carmona

ALTERNATE 1 12-1 2 Ole Stud Muffin J L Rodriguez
ALTERNATE 2 8-1 6 Lone Star Max J Riquelme

* EXACTA: 7-4 BOX, 4-5 BOX, 5-3 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4/5/7 BOX, 3/4/5 BOX


RACE #2 $5,000 CLAIMING
1 MILE 70 YARDS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:15 PM ET

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 7-2 1 Bonus Appreciation B Curtis
PLACE 3-1 3 Lions Not Sheep A Green
SHOW 7-2 6 My Bariley D L Parker
WILD CARD 5-1 7 Big Power Red Y Navas

ALTERNATE 1 7-2 4 Mo Them Down J L Rodriguez
ALTERNATE 2 20-1 8 Pharaohs Prophecy S Carmona

* EXACTA: 1-3 BOX, 3-6 BOX, 6-7 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/3/6 BOX, 3/6/7 BOX


RACE #3 $15,000 CLAIMING
6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:45 PM ET

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 7-2 4 Starburst M Murrill
PLACE 7-2 7 Herd Immunity C J Lanerie
SHOW 3-1 1 Lunar Module J A Guerrero
WILD CARD 7-2 6 Mischiefs Machine J L Rodriguez

ALTERNATE 1 8-1 2 Silver Wings J Graham
ALTERNATE 2 10-1 5 Peso in My Pocket E Nieves

* EXACTA: 4-7 BOX, 7-1 BOX, 1-6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/4/7 BOX, 1/6/7 BOX


RACE #4 $52,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:15 PM ET

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 3-1 5 City of Love B J Hernandez Jr.
PLACE 9-2 2 Le Monstre Rapide J A Guerrero
SHOW 8-1 8 Boston Blitz M Murrill
WILD CARD 6-1 4 Contraband Early J Graham

ALTERNATE 1 7-2 7 Sassi D A Green
ALTERNATE 2 20-1 1 Measure of Faith Y Navas

* EXACTA: 5-2 BOX, 2-8 BOX, 8-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/5/8 BOX, 2/4/8 BOX


RACE #5 $53,000 ALLOWANCE
1 1/8 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 4:45 PM ET

BEST BET: #6 SOLID COUNTRY GOLD

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 6-1 6 Solid Country Gold J Loveberry
PLACE 3-1 8 Agent Creed E Morales
SHOW 8-1 2 Summer Lover A Green
WILD CARD 4-1 1 Brigade Commander B J Hernandez Jr.

ALTERNATE 1 12-1 7 Smarty Alex J A Guerrero
ALTERNATE 2 8-1 3 Dapper Dude C J Lanerie

* EXACTA: 6-8 BOX, 8-2 BOX, 2-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/6/8 BOX, 1/2/8 BOX


RACE #6 $20,000 CLAIMING
6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 5:15 PM ET

BEST BET: #8 GIRL AFRAID

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 3-1 8 Girl Afraid B Curtis
PLACE 4-1 2 De Ans Eighty E Morales
SHOW 8-1 7 Mystic Storm M Pedroza Jr.
WILD CARD 5-1 10 Tu Cha J Loveberry

ALTERNATE 1 8-1 3 Hannahs Haven J A Guerrero
ALTERNATE 2 9-2 9 Madelyn Belle D Cohen

* EXACTA: 8-2 BOX, 2-7 BOX, 7-10 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/7/8 BOX, 2/7/10 BOX


RACE #7 $52,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
5 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 5:45 PM ET

BEST BET: #9 REDEPOSIT

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 7-2 9 Redeposit B J Hernandez Jr.
PLACE 3-1 10 Gavel D Cohen
SHOW 6-1 5 Honky Tonk Highway R Gutierrez
WILD CARD 6-1 2 Sharp Strike Y Navas

ALTERNATE 1 12-1 1 Baltimore Heart J Loveberry
ALTERNATE 2 4-1 4 Mighty Message E Morales

* EXACTA: 9-10 BOX, 10-5 BOX, 5-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 5/9/10 BOX, 2/5/10 BOX


RACE #8 $52,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 6:15 PM ET

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 7-2 6 Beelieve Her D L Parker
PLACE 9-2 1 Into Stars J Graham
SHOW 6-1 7 Mt. Masada E Morales
WILD CARD 8-1 10 Plum Tricky B J Hernandez Jr.

ALTERNATE 1 9-2 5 Velvet Kisses J Loveberry
ALTERNATE 2 10-1 2 Remunzel J A Torres

* EXACTA: 6-1 BOX, 1-7 BOX, 7-10 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/6/7 BOX, 1/7/10 BOX


RACE #9 $54,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING
1 1/16 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 6:45 PM ET

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 7-2 11 Musical Score M Pedroza Jr.
PLACE 6-1 5 Elle Est Forte R Gutierrez
SHOW 9-2 3 Academic Honor B J Hernandez Jr.
WILD CARD 9-2 7 Tasweya M Murrill

ALTERNATE 1 15-1 8 Lady Jeopardy E Nieves
ALTERNATE 2 8-1 12 Happy Helen J Loveberry

* EXACTA: 11-5 BOX, 5-3 BOX, 3-7 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/5/11 BOX, 3/5/7 BOX


RACE #10 $5,000 CLAIMING
1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 7:15 PM ET

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 5-1 13 Payday Too M Pedroza Jr.
PLACE 6-1 10 Imindycatbirdseat J Loveberry
SHOW 8-1 9 Northernreflection D L Parker
WILD CARD 12-1 4 Gallant Star C L Marquez

ALTERNATE 1 20-1 2 Unwanted Intruder E Morales
ALTERNATE 2 10-1 5 Juju Nineteen E Nieves

* EXACTA: 13-10 BOX, 10-9 BOX, 9-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 9/10/13 BOX, 4/9/10 BOX