Sunday 12/17/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Jack Jones

Jack's Free Pick Sunday: Green Bay Packers -3

I faded the Packers with success last week against the New York Giants. They went from pulling off three outright upsets as underdogs over the Chargers (+3), Lions (+8.5) and Chiefs (+5.5) to being listed as high as 7-point road favorites at New York. This despite the Giants coming off a bye and coming off a pair of upset wins themselves. The Packers were overvalued last week to say the least.

Now the Packers are back to being undervalued this week as only 3-point home favorites over the Tampa Bay Bucs. I don't think the Bucs are that much better than the Giants right now. And if that's the case, this is close to a 10-point adjustment down on the Packers when you factor in home-field advantage. It's way too big of an adjustment.

A big reason I faded the Packers last week is because they were without four of their best players in Aaron Jones, Christian Watson, Quay Walker and Jaire Alexander. Well, Jones, Walker and Alexander all returned to practice this week. The Packers are back to being nearly at full strength with only Watson likely to sit of those four.

It's a good time to 'sell high' on the Bucs. They are coming off consecutive wins over the Panthers and Falcons by a combined 7 points. Now they have to step outside of their putrid division and hit the road for a 2nd consecutive week. Their 29-25 win in Atlanta was very misleading as well as they gave up 434 total yards to the Falcons and were actually outgained by 144 yards. They were very fortunate to win that game.

The Bucs have been struggling defensively in recent weeks due to injuries. They have five starters listed as questionable to play this week in NT Vita Vea, LB Devin White, CB Jamel Dean, SS Ryan Neal and CB Carlton Davis. They are allowing 24.3 points and 382.5 yards per game in their last four games.

I think the Packers are better on both sides of the football. They haven't allowed more than 24 points in nine consecutive games now. They have rushed for at least 100 and thrown for at least 200 yards in six consecutive games as well. Jordan Love is finally getting comfortable in LaFleur's offense.

The Packers are 16-1 SU in their last 17 December games. Green Bay is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 home games in the second half of the season. LaFleur is 12-4 ATS off a road loss as the coach of Green Bay. Todd Bowles is 0-7 ATS after going over the total in three consecutive games as a head coach.

We have a warm weather team in the Bucs traveling North to play a cold weather game at Lambeau Field with temps expected to be in the 30's Sunday. I like fading the warm weather team and backing the cold weather team in this situation. Bet the Packers Sunday.

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Mike Lundin

Chiefs/Patriots NFL Free Pick

**NBA GAME OF THE YEAR GOES TONIGHT**

The Kansas City Chiefs are coming off a heartbreaking 20-17 loss against the Buffalo Bills last week.

I typically like good teams to bounce back with strong efforts, but I think they're asked to cover too many points here against a Patriots team that is looking to save an embarrassing season.

The Pats are holding opponents to a respectable 306.9 yards per game (8th) and Bailey Zappe looked sharp in New England's 21-18 victory over the Pittsburgh Steelers on Dec. 7.

The Chiefs are 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0.

2* FREE PICK ON THE NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS+8.5

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Black Widow

1* Free Wiseguy Play on Panthers+3 -115

*All picks are based on situations, trends, statistics and injuries among many other factors*

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Dave Price

Dave's Sunday Free Play:

1* on New York Jets +9.5

The Key: Zach Wilson returned at QB last week for the Jets to give their offense a spark and prove how big of an upgrade he is over Boyle. He led the Jets to a 30-6 win over the Houston Texans and had the best game of his career, completing 27 of 36 passes for 301 yards and 2 TD. The Jets have a Top 5 defense and now with confidence in Wilson they will go on the road and give the Miami Dolphins a run for their money. The Dolphins are on a short week after blowing a 14-point lead in the final minutes to lose 28-27 to the Tennessee Titans on Monday Night Football. They suffered several key injuries in that game and now Hill and Achane haven't practiced as of Thursday and are questionable to play. The Dolphins are missing several starters on the offensive line and C Connor Williams suffered a season-ending injury in that loss to the Titans. This Jets defense is going to make life very difficult on Tua and the Dolphins, who were gift-wrapped 3 short field TD's against the Titans. There was nothing fluky about their loss, in fact it would have been a fluky win had they held on given the 3 short fields. I expect the Jets to take the Dolphins to the wire in this one. Take New York.

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Sean Murphy

Sunday NFL Free play. My selection is on Tennessee minus the points over Houston at 1 pm et on Sunday.

At 5-8 on the season, the Titans are still probably going nowhere this year but there's reason for optimism with a remaining schedule that includes three home games against Houston, Seattle and Jacksonville and a rematch against the Texans on the road. Houston is extremely banged-up right now and will have to turn to previously ineffective Davis Mills at quarterback. The offense was already depleted before losing breakout rookie QB C.J. Stroud with WR Tank Dell lost for the season. Defensively, the Texans are also missing their best player in edge-rusher Will Anderson. The Titans got a major lift with Monday's incredible come-from-behind victory in Miami. Derrick Henry suddenly looks like the Big Dog again and he's going to get fed against Houston's undermanned defense on Sunday. While the jury is still out on rookie QB Will Levis, I don't think he'll be asked to do too much in this division game played on a short week. The fact that the Titans have only been outscored 58-56 over the last two games despite coughing the football up a whopping five times is encouraging in my opinion. Take Tennessee.

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ASA

ASA free play on Chicago Bears +3 or +3.5 at Cleveland Browns, 1 PM ET - The Bears have won 3 of their last four games and could literally be 4-0 if it weren’t for a late flurry by the Lions a few weeks ago. Chicago clearly continues to be undervalued by the oddsmakers as they are 5-1-1 ATS their last seven games. With Cleveland you are getting a bit of fools-gold with QB Flacco who has played well in two games against bottom third pass defenses the past two weeks. The Browns don’t pose much of a threat to run the football as they rank 20th in yards per rush at 4.1 on the season and have averaged just 3.7YPR in their last three games. Chicago also allows the 2nd fewest rushing yards per game at 83.7 so that is one aspect of the Browns offense that will be non-factor. The Browns have exceptional defensive numbers, especially at home but the Bears QB Fields is great at creating plays when the offense breaks down. Fields leads the Bears in rushing at 458 yards while throwing for over 1,800. The Bears sustain drives with the 7th best 3rd down conversion percentage in the NFL while Cleveland doesn’t ranking 30th. The Chicago defense has averaged 2.7 sacks per game over their last three games and will spend a large portion of the game in the Browns backfield harassing Flacco. We expect this game to go down to the wire and be decided by less than an FG either way.

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Stephen Nover

Free Play: Saints-4.5

Tommy DeVito has been a fun and interesting story. Just as Joshua Dobbs was for a while. Truth be told, though, these are bad quarterbacks. Time and the league catches up to them. It caught up to Dobbs and I'm selling high on DeVito and the Giants, who have won three in a row.

The Saints are no better than an average team. Dennis Allen is a good defensive coach. It's just too bad he's a head coach. But this spot sets up perfectly for the Saints as they catch the Giants traveling on a short week following their thrilling home upset victory against the Packers this past Monday night.

DeVito aka "Tommy Cutlets" is the toast of Broadway right now. Heady stuff that's not going to last given his limited talent and the Giants' low level. Let's not lose sight that the Giants rank second-to-last in scoring at 14.1 points per game, are also second-from-the-bottom total yards and are last in passing. Their defensive numbers aren't much better - 26th in total defense, 29th in run defense and 24th in scoring defense.

The Giants have lost six games by 15 or more points. They are more than capable of being blown out especially when the spot is against them like it is here.

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Rob Vinciletti

Sunday card has the 20-0 Non Divisional Game of the Year going early and our Executive Level TIER 1 in later afternoon. There is also a TOP totals play and Sunday night Football along with Hoops and Hockey. NFL Comp play below

On Sunday the NFL Comp play is on Houston plus the points at 1 eastern. The Titans are in a play against system predicated on their road dog win as a 10+ point road last week in Miami. The Texans were upset in NY by the Jets and should rebound here as they still have covered 6 of their last 8 on the road. The Titans have failed to cover 5 of 6 n Divisional games and are ranked 25th on offense.. Houston ranks 4th in passing and 2nd overall in fewest turnovers so we expect even with Kennum, at Qb for the Texans to at the very least get a cover. On Sunday a loaded card headlines with a TIER 1 Late play and an early Non Divisional Game of the year from a 20-0 system. There is a big total and Sunday night Football. In hoops we have NBA and NCAAB along with NHL. Jump on now as we end the week big. For the NFL Comp play Take the points with the Texans. Rob V-

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Ray Monohan

Cowboys/Bills UNDER 49.5

The Cowboys (10-3, 9-4 ATS, 3-3 AWAY) and Bills (7-6, 5-8 ATS, 5-2 HOME) will face off this Sunday afternoon at Highmark Stadium. The game is set to kick off at 4:25 p.m. ET and will be broadcast on FOX. This total seems quite elevated, especially considering that both teams are entering this matchup fresh off their most significant defensive victories this season. Both defenses are TOP 5 ranked. Just last week, Dallas stifled the Eagles, limiting them to a 13, while Buffalo contained the Chiefs to just 17. Buffalo seems to have hit their stride lately, and their victory over the Chiefs provided a much-needed morale boost. I'm gaining confidence in the Bills' defense as each week passes. They've been stepping up, and I expect them to do so again on Sunday. When playing at home, the Bills are a formidable force, securing 3 wins in their last 4 home games and covering the spread in 5 of their last 7 December games. The Dallas offense has boosted its statistics by facing weak opponents and favorable conditions, and you know it's true, but it has only managed to score more than 23 points in a single away game out of its last 5, with the exception being the Panthers. Hopefully the weather is terrible too! Predicted High 40's 25% chance of rain. Trends, the Under is 5-0 in Bills L5 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game, plus the Under is 5-0 in Bills L5 home games, and the Under is 5-0 in Bills L5 games as a home favorite. For DAL the UNDER has hit in 7 of their L10 on the road, and in 9 of their L12 vs. AFC East teams. You know what to do. Hop ON! Good Luck, Razor Ray.

Sunday FREE 5* NFL O/U Play

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John Martin

1 Unit FREE PLAY on Jacksonville Jaguars +3.5 -120

The Jacksonville Jaguars should be much healthier this week than they were last week when they went into Cleveland and gave the Browns all they could handle in a 31-27 defeat. That's the same Browns team that has given the Ravens fits this season as well, actually winning outright in Baltimore earlier this season. I also like the spot for the Jaguars coming off two consecutive losses. They will put their best foot forward to try and end this skid. I do not think it's a very good spot for the Ravens after needing OT to beat the Rams last week at home. Now the Ravens have the 49ers on deck, which could be a Super Bowl previous. That makes this a sandwich game for the Ravens. There is value on the home underdog Jaguars in this contest. Give me the Jaguars.