Sunday 12/24/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Jeff Alexander

1* NFL - Lions/Vikings FREE PICK on Lions -2.5 -120

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Black Widow

1* Free Wiseguy Play on Falcons-3 +100

*All picks are based on situations, trends, statistics and injuries among many other factors*

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Sean Murphy

Sunday NFL Free play. My selection is on Atlanta minus the points over Indianapolis at 1 pm et on Sunday.

The Falcons check in off consecutive divisional losses against the Buccaneers and Panthers but I look for them to bounce back as they host the Colts on Sunday. Indianapolis is in a fairly obvious letdown spot off last Saturday's rout of the Steelers. The Falcons have inexplicably rushed for just 90, 96 and 52 yards over their last three games but their offensive line is as healthy as it has been in weeks and the potential is there for them to run all over the Colts inconsistent front line on Sunday. Indy held Pittsburgh to just 74 rushing yards last week but prior to that had given up 111 or more yards on the ground in seven straight contests. Taylor Heinicke will get another shot at quarterback for the Falcons, more or less auditioning for a job with another team next season at this point. He undoubtedly has more upside than struggling sophomore QB Desmond Ridder. Take Atlanta.

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Timothy Black

1* Best Bet on Colts/Falcons over 44.5

No analysis provided.

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Bobby Conn

1* Free Play on Bears-3.5

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Hunter Price

1* Free Pick on Bears-3.5

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Jack Jones

Jack's Free Pick Sunday: Miami Dolphins PK

There has been a lot made about the fact that the Miami Dolphins haven't beaten a team with a winning record this season. But all three of their losses against teams with a winning record came on the road. I think that is keeping this line suppressed, and there's value on the Dolphins, who will most definitely be playing with a chip on their shoulder this week to prove their doubters wrong.

I was impressed with how the Dolphins responded last week from their loss to the Titans on Monday Night Football where they blew a 14-point lead in the final two minutes. Money poured in against them last week against the Jets. They promptly made a statement with a 30-0 victory while holding the Jets to just 103 total yards and forcing four turnovers.

A big reason I'm on the Dolphins is because they have a better defense than the Cowboys. This Miami defense has allowed 21 points or fewer in six of its last seven games and an average of just 13.9 points per game in those seven games. We've seen this Dallas defense exposed in recent weeks allowing 35 points to Seattle and 31 to Buffalo, including 266 rushing yards to the Bills. Their defense will get exposed again this week against the best offense in the NFL.

Miami's high-powered offense gets more attention than the defense, and for good reason. The Dolphins average 31.5 points per game, 414 yards per game and 6.8 yards per play this season. They only allow 293 yards per game and 5.0 yards per play, outgaining opponents by 121 yards per game and 1.8 yards per play. To compare, Dallas is only outgaining opponents by 0.5 yards per play on the season. The Dolphins average 140 rushing yards per game and 5.1 per carry and will take advantage of Dallas' weak run defense that was exposed by the Bills last week.

The Dolphins got good injury news Thursday when WR Tyreke Hill, RB De'Von Achane, T Terron Armstead, C Liam Eichenberg, TE Durham Smythe, CB Xavien Howard, SS DeShon Elliott, LB Andrew Van Ginkel and S Javon Holland all got limited practices in, which is a good sign they are all going to play. Money came in against the Dolphins because of these injuries, but I'm not concerned about it after Thursday's practice report.

The injuries for the Cowboys are more concerning. They could be without both LT Tyron Smith and RG Zach Martin, who both didn't practice on Thursday and have to be more doubtful than probable. DT Jonathan Hankins also missed practice Thursday and is more on the doubtful side of things. The Cowboys are hurting in the trenches, and the Bills exposed them with that being the case last week.

The Cowboys are 1-3 against teams with a winning record with their lone win coming at home against a depleted, tired Eagles team. They are 0-3 against winning teams on the road and have been absolutely blasted 42-10 by the 49ers and 31-10 by the Bills. This is a tough travel week for them having to fly home from Buffalo and then back to Miami. This is a tired Dallas team that won't handle it very well.

I expect Miami to go off as the favorite and the Dolphins are 8-2 ATS as favorites this season. Miami is 8-1 ATS in its last nine home games with a total of 45.5 or higher. Mike McCarthy is 0-6 ATS in road games vs. good teams outscoring opponents by 6-plus points per game as the coach of Dallas. The Cowboys are 1-8 SU & 1-8 ATS in their last nine road games on grass. Bet the Dolphins Sunday.

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Jesse Schule

This is a Free play on DAL+2.5 -111

After the Cowboys got throttled on the road at Buffalo, they are an underdog here in Miami a week later. Fans a jumping at the chance to take the Dolphins as just a slight home favorite after winning 30-0 at home versus New York last week. The problem with that logic is, that Miami hasn't beaten a single team with a winning record in their last 28 games overall. This is a buy low spot on Dallas, and a sell high spot on the Dolphins.

GL,

Jesse Schule

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Steve Janus

1* Free Sharp Play on Cowboys vs Dolphins under 49 -113

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PROVENWINNER

Samaje Perine OVER 13.5 Receiving Yards

ANOTHA one! 3 of our last 4 free picks have cashed for P Dub nation as Gerald Everett easily went over 27.5 yards last night. Today we are locked in on more NFL value in the Sunday Night Christmas Eve matchup between the Broncos and Patriots. This is a niche play in a really good spot. Check out Broncos backup running back Samaje Perine. His lines are O/U 5.5 rushing yards and O/U 13.5 receiving yards. Perine has actually done an excellent job this season contributing and Russell Wilson frequently looks his way on 3rd downs to provide yards after catch. Perine has accumulated 3+ targets in 9 games this year and we feel he’ll have a few catches today. His receiving yards line has hit the over in 11 of 14 games this year, a 78.5% clip. This includes a run of 10 straight games where he had 14+ receiving yards. And he isn’t just barely breaking this line on most occasions. He’s even had games of 60 and 73 receiving yards, too. New England has always been good at taking away big name receivers in the passing game which will allow Perine opportunity as a receiver out of the backfield. The Patriots allow the 9th most receiving yards to opposing running backs at 37.3 per game. Look for Wilson to find Perine on several occasions to clear this line for us, hopefully by halftime! Lock in for this Christmas Eve hammer time - Take Samaje Perine OVER 13.5 Receiving Yards!