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Re: 3-17-09
M@LINSKY
PICK: Wyoming
Offered at: -2.5 Logan's
REASON FOR PICK: 4* #590 WYOMING over NORTHEASTERN
We think the markets got this one wrong in the early morning trading, and now that -2 has become available in a few spots with the host Cowboys it is “go time”. Why did the mistake happen? Let’s go back to an early-season ticket that we cashed on Northeastern to set the stage –
"4* #524 NORTHEASTERN over WILLIAM & MARY
It is conference time, and that means the “real season” in places like the Colonial Athletic Association, where smaller programs know their only chance to be Dancing in March is to win the conference. That means that November/December results can be all about preparing for league play, instead of piling up wins over even weaker sisters, and it also means that the oddsmakers and betting markets can have a difficult time making early evaluations. This is just such a setting. We believe a case can be made that considering the level of the program, no team has done more to be ready for this stage than Bill Coen and his Huskies.
First, Northeastern came out of last season in decent shape, with all five starters returning from a team that exceeded expectations to finish at .500 in CAA play. To build that chemistry even more they took a trip to Canada in late summer, going 6-1 in those seven games, and then came an early schedule that had the Huskies play at places like Memphis, Michigan, Providence, South Florida and Indiana, while also winning a cross-town trip to Harvard, and hosting Rhode Island. It had them well-prepared for their conference opener at James Madison, where they picked up a key win a month ago, and now in their first game at Matthews Arena since December 3rd they are being priced far short here."
Northeastern won that game easily, of course, but note exactly what we were saying above – not necessarily that the Huskies were good, but that they were ahead of their opponent in terms of development. And that continued through the first cycle of C.A.A. play, where they sat in first place at the end of January. But then the other teams began to develop their rhythm, and Northeastern was exposed for being the mediocre squad that heads to Laramie tonight. The Huskies were beaten by the likes of William & Mary (in the rematch of that winning ticket above), Drexel, Georgia State and Towson in an ugly slide to close the campaign, and have suffered the double whammy of not only missing a trip to the Big Dance that they once thought was in their sights, but not making the NIT either. Now a mediocre squad that has only played one game in the month of March, and has not won since February 25th, brings rustiness, a lack of enthusiasm, and also the difficulty of going from sea level to one of college basketball’s highest venues, a court that sits a 7,059 feet. They are in trouble.
Accentuating the difficulties is that Wyoming will come to play. The Cowboys harbored no real tourney expectations this year, so this is a true reward, and while Northeastern has had only a loss to Towson in all of March, heath Shroyer’s squad has been battle-tested by facing Brigham Young, Utah and Mew Mexico twice in that same span. And he is open about this being a reward - “This is only the seventh time in 20 years that this program has been to a postseason tournament, so we’ve made a lot of progress. I’m really proud of our guys. I’m really happy for our seniors (guards Brandon Ewing and Sean Ogirri, and forward Tyson Johnson) that they get to extend their careers and really lay a foundation for where this program is and where we hope to go … There hasn’t been a player in uniform the last six years who’s gone to a postseason tournament, so this is a big deal for them."
It is a particularly big deal for Ewing, one of the best players in the history of the program, and leads to matchup advantages against a slower Northeastern back-court. And the Wyoming floor leader is ready for it, while also acknowledging what the home advantage is worth - “This is big. I’ve never been into postseason play, and that’s one thing I’ve always wanted to do since coming to college … They’re coming from sea level to this high altitude. We want to try to run it down on them a little bit, but I’m sure they’ll try to suck it up.”
Look for Wyoming to not only be the more enthusiastic team early, but also the fresher one in the latter stages, and with guards Ewing (83.4 percent) and Ogirri (86.1) among the nation’s best at the free throw line, they are more than capable of closing it out with a late lead.
M@LINSKY
PICK: Wyoming
Offered at: -2.5 Logan's
REASON FOR PICK: 4* #590 WYOMING over NORTHEASTERN
We think the markets got this one wrong in the early morning trading, and now that -2 has become available in a few spots with the host Cowboys it is “go time”. Why did the mistake happen? Let’s go back to an early-season ticket that we cashed on Northeastern to set the stage –
"4* #524 NORTHEASTERN over WILLIAM & MARY
It is conference time, and that means the “real season” in places like the Colonial Athletic Association, where smaller programs know their only chance to be Dancing in March is to win the conference. That means that November/December results can be all about preparing for league play, instead of piling up wins over even weaker sisters, and it also means that the oddsmakers and betting markets can have a difficult time making early evaluations. This is just such a setting. We believe a case can be made that considering the level of the program, no team has done more to be ready for this stage than Bill Coen and his Huskies.
First, Northeastern came out of last season in decent shape, with all five starters returning from a team that exceeded expectations to finish at .500 in CAA play. To build that chemistry even more they took a trip to Canada in late summer, going 6-1 in those seven games, and then came an early schedule that had the Huskies play at places like Memphis, Michigan, Providence, South Florida and Indiana, while also winning a cross-town trip to Harvard, and hosting Rhode Island. It had them well-prepared for their conference opener at James Madison, where they picked up a key win a month ago, and now in their first game at Matthews Arena since December 3rd they are being priced far short here."
Northeastern won that game easily, of course, but note exactly what we were saying above – not necessarily that the Huskies were good, but that they were ahead of their opponent in terms of development. And that continued through the first cycle of C.A.A. play, where they sat in first place at the end of January. But then the other teams began to develop their rhythm, and Northeastern was exposed for being the mediocre squad that heads to Laramie tonight. The Huskies were beaten by the likes of William & Mary (in the rematch of that winning ticket above), Drexel, Georgia State and Towson in an ugly slide to close the campaign, and have suffered the double whammy of not only missing a trip to the Big Dance that they once thought was in their sights, but not making the NIT either. Now a mediocre squad that has only played one game in the month of March, and has not won since February 25th, brings rustiness, a lack of enthusiasm, and also the difficulty of going from sea level to one of college basketball’s highest venues, a court that sits a 7,059 feet. They are in trouble.
Accentuating the difficulties is that Wyoming will come to play. The Cowboys harbored no real tourney expectations this year, so this is a true reward, and while Northeastern has had only a loss to Towson in all of March, heath Shroyer’s squad has been battle-tested by facing Brigham Young, Utah and Mew Mexico twice in that same span. And he is open about this being a reward - “This is only the seventh time in 20 years that this program has been to a postseason tournament, so we’ve made a lot of progress. I’m really proud of our guys. I’m really happy for our seniors (guards Brandon Ewing and Sean Ogirri, and forward Tyson Johnson) that they get to extend their careers and really lay a foundation for where this program is and where we hope to go … There hasn’t been a player in uniform the last six years who’s gone to a postseason tournament, so this is a big deal for them."
It is a particularly big deal for Ewing, one of the best players in the history of the program, and leads to matchup advantages against a slower Northeastern back-court. And the Wyoming floor leader is ready for it, while also acknowledging what the home advantage is worth - “This is big. I’ve never been into postseason play, and that’s one thing I’ve always wanted to do since coming to college … They’re coming from sea level to this high altitude. We want to try to run it down on them a little bit, but I’m sure they’ll try to suck it up.”
Look for Wyoming to not only be the more enthusiastic team early, but also the fresher one in the latter stages, and with guards Ewing (83.4 percent) and Ogirri (86.1) among the nation’s best at the free throw line, they are more than capable of closing it out with a late lead.
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