Saturday 2/10/24 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 02-10-2024, 07:30 AM

Jeff Siegel's What You Need to Know - Santa Anita - 2/10/24

February 10, 2024
Jeff Siegel’s 1/ST Glance: Santa Anita

RACE 1

3-MADIHA
Degree of confidence: C+

• First or second in 7 of 11 outings over the Santa Anita lawn.
• Stretching out after a series of sprints; has won at a mile.
• Likely to inherit and ideal stalking trip and have every chance.

Others to consider: 4-Cornelia Fort; 6-Myfavoritedaughter; 8-Irish Patsy.

RACE 2

3-BIG CITY LIGHTS
Degree of confidence: B+

• Strong figs; earned a career top in recent allowance sprint score.
• Three wins and one second in four starts over the local dirt strip.
• Plenty of early zip but can stalk and pounce if race shape demands.

Others to consider: 5-Hopkins.

RACE 3

4-EL REY DORADO
Degree of confidence: B

• Unproven at this mile trip but is bred to handle two turns.
• Sprint figs are fast; likely to employ gate-to-wire tactics.
• Sharp recent half mile breeze (:46.3h) has him on edge.

Others to consider: 7-Speed Grazy.

RACE 4

6-JANE KENDEIGH
Degree of confidence: B

• Tough beat in debut after hitting the front close home.
• Retains F. Prat, seems sure to improve with experience.
• Gets an extra half furlong, will benefit from patient ride.

Others to consider: 1-Runamileinmyshoes.

RACE 5

4-KOPION
Degree of confidence: B+

• Shows the classic two-sprints-and-a-stretch out pattern.
• Both wins were by daylight; was not asked in the final stages.
• Not as quick as main rival Kinza, should inherit a stalking trip.

Others to consider: 3-Kinza.

RACE 6

8-EXULTATION
Degree of confidence: C+

• Thoroughly genuine and consistent and loves the local lawn.
• Class drop to the $32,000 level raises a red flag; is he for sale?
• Regular jockey Juan Hernandez bails; opts for Ge Me the Lute.

Others to consider: 7-Give Me the Lute.

RACE 7

7-BAG’S GOLD
Degree of confidence: B-

• Solid runner-up facing similar state-bred rivals last month.
• Frankie stays aboard; cold barn is overdue for some winners.
• Shorter trip; race shape projects him as a strong pace factor.

Others to consider: 8-Minister Shane; 9-Enjoy It Strait.

RACE 8

5-PLANETARIO (BRZ)
Degree of confidence: B

• Returned to winning form with game Turf Cup score at Del Mar.
• Bullet six furlong drill last month indicates he is spot on right back.
• Probably prefers a marathon trip but has won at this distance.

Others to consider: 3-Balladeer; 1-Missed the Cut.

RACE 9

2-GRAND TIGER
Degree of confidence: B-

• Graduated over bottom rung maiden claimers in his last race.
• Realistically spotted in this nw-2 ($16,000) abbreviated sprint.
• Fits nicely on speed figures and can repeat with his best effort.

Others to consider: 10-Mister Beams; 4-Gold Drama.

RACE 10

6-STAY AND SCAM
Degree of confidence: B

• Sharp third (beaten a head) over this course and distance.
• Fast on speed figures and employs an ideal stalking style.
• First or second in five of eight starts; work tab is healthy.

Others to consider: 1-Ag Bullet; 4-Thumps Dream; 2-Kitty Kitana.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 02-10-2024, 07:31 AM

Al Cimaglia: Cal Expo Pick 4 Analysis

February 10, 2024 | By Al Cimaglia
Cal Expo will race tonight and not on Super Bowl Sunday. The 0.20 Pick 4 starts in Race 9. The sequence has a $25,000 guaranteed pool with a 16% takeout, and it will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 9 (8:25 PM PST)

1-Outlaw Blue By You (5-1)-Raced well in last coming off cover. James Kennedy sticks and will look for a smooth trip at a solid price.
3-Trump Train (7/2)-Hasn't raced since 1-21 and should be a major player if dialed on high. This is a soft spot, and it could be a drop and pop situation.
6-Sneak Peek Hanover (3-1)-Closed with a 57.1 back half but was up against a well-meant winner and finished a beaten 2nd. Luke Plano can provide a sharp steer, the last winner isn't in this field and should be in the hunt at the wire.

Race 10 (8:45 PM PST)

1-Cowboy Dirtyboots (5-1)-Came off cover for an easy win last time and bumps up. Will respect chances to double up with Jacob Cutting steering in a race without a standout.
2-Outlawnothnbutsmrt (5-1)-Put in a no-move mile versus better. Drops to a more comfortable level and Renee Goulet could work a cozy trip. Looks like a suck-around candidate and could roll by down the lane at a nice price.
3-MyartblongstoRock (3-1)-Rallied from the back of the pack and took advantage of a hot pace to take a picture. Steps-up but gets post relief from the 7-hole and could stay good for another. Kennedy has some options and might race near the top of stack this week.

Race 11 (9:05 PM PST)

4-Polar Storm (3-1)-Got an efficient trip from Nick Roland in last and proved the best down the lane. May need to be better this week but it's best to not overlook.
5-Bombay Hanover (5/2)-Should be on the point or in the pocket going into the opening turn. Plano could provide a ground saving trip and may have met a beatable field.

Race 12 (9:25 PM PST)

2-Brooklyn Moonshine (5-1)-This mare is overdue for a picture and a fast track would help. Two of the last three starts have been on a wet surface and hasn't posted a win in 26 tries on an off-track.
4-Witch Hunter (5-1)-Moved up to this TM rating and put in the best effort in a long time. This is another who is probably better when the track is dry. Should offer a square price and will look for the upswing to continue.
5-Biggiessecondshot (5-1)-Was dull in last but raced from the back. Svendsen sticks, comes back in sequence, and will look for a more aggressive steer.

0.20 Pick 4

1,3,6/1,2,3/4,5/2,4,5
Total Bet=$10.80

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 02-10-2024, 07:31 AM

Coast-to-Coast Pick 5 Selections | Nicoletti & Siegel | Sat 2

February 9, 2024 | By 1/ST BET
Saturday’s Coast-to-Coast Pick 5 wager from Gulfstream Park and Santa Anita is back for another run. The $1 minimum wager has a low 15% takeout and we’ve got the selections of veteran local handicappers Ron Nicoletti at GP and Jeff Siegel at SA.

Get 10X Wager Rewards Points when you bet the Coast-to-Coast Pick 5 with 1/ST BET and Xpressbet.

Gulfstream Park Race 9
#7 Carotari
#4 Panther Island
#6 Eamonn

Santa Anita Race 3
#4 El Rey Dorado
#7 Speed Crazy

Gulfstream Park Race 11
#11 Trikari
#5 Runnin Rocket
#3 Gender Ledger

Santa Anita Race 6
#8 Exultation
#7 Give Me the Lute

Santa Anita Race 7
#7 Bag’s Gold
#8 Minister Shane
#9 Enjoy It Strait

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 02-10-2024, 07:33 AM

Race of the Week: San Marcos at Santa Anita | Saturday, Feb. 10

February 8, 2024 | By Jeremy Plonk
The Lead:
A trio of graded stakes races are on the schedule Saturday at Santa Anita as The Great Race Place is slated to return to action. Heavy rains in the area over the past week are forecasted to give way to sunny skies and temps in the mid-60s. The turf course should have plenty of give to it for this mile and one-quarter headliner that goes as Race 8. The undercard includes the Grade 3 Palos Verdes for sprinters and the Grade 3 Las Virgenes on the Kentucky Oaks trail, both on the main track.

Field Depth:
BALLADEER and PLANETARIO are Grade 2 winners, the latter also Grade 1-placed. MISSED THE CUT is a Grade 3 winner and has placed at the Grade 2 level. That trio is pretty equal in class and strength of schedule.

Pace:
BALLADEER is a committed front-runner with the chasers projected to be IRISH PROPHET and EASTERN OCEAN. The pace looks modest and given the field size of 6 it likely won't overheat.

Our Eyes:
Here are my horse-by-horse notes.

1-MISSED THE CUT: Runner-up to the rising star Easter in the San Gabriel, it looks like the connections' repeated attempts at making this British export a dirt horse are coming to the realization that he belongs on turf. The mile and one-quarter trip suits him well and he'll be rallying with a chance to give trainer John Sadler a third victory in the San Marcos.

2-IRISH PROPHET: The legendary trainer Charlie Whittingham owns a record 8 San Marcos wins, but take nothing away from Neil Drysdale's 5 between 1998-2011. He'll get a chance to add a sixth with this class riser exiting a Jan. 6 allowance victory. Leading jockey Juan Hernandez has partnered with Irish Prophet in both of his lifetime wins, but this will be his first stakes test and longest bid of his career.

3-BALLADEER: Consistent front-runner will try to take them as far as he can under 3-time San Marcos-winning jockey Victor Espinoza. Son of Distorted Humor owns a field-best 3 wins on the Santa Anita lawn, including a 6-1 wire job in the Grade 2 John Henry Turf Cup in October. Freshened more than 2 months after a very busy 11-race campaign in 2024 by modern standards.

4-EASTERN OCEAN: Veteran 7-year-old was claimed for $50,000 in late October, following up with off-the-board finishes at long odds in the Hollywood Turf Cup and San Gabriel. The Fresu-Eurton combo has clicked nearly 25% in tandem. Would be the oldest San Marcos winner since fellow 7YO Vagabond Shoes in 2014; note 8-year-olds like The Tin Man and Sandpit have won this race.

5-PLANETARIO: Rallying winner of the Hollywood Turf Cup last out at Del Mar, his inconsistent '23 season also included a blowout win in Santa Anita's San Juan Capistrano. Trainer Richard Mandella has won this race 4 times with the likes of United, Johar, Sandpit and The Tin Man, some of California's top turf runners over the past 30 years.

6-SHORTMAN: California-bred is winless in 9 career starts over the Santa Anita turf and will be a longshot entrant. Late-running miler will be tested for class and stamina as he's primarily been a miler.

Most Certain Exotics Contender:
BALLADEER should be clear up front, and even if he doesn't wire the field, figures to hang on for a trusted share of the exotics.

Best Longshot Exotics Contender:
IRISH PROPHET is in good current form for a barn that knows turf routes as well as any in the game. Should get a good trip just off the front-runner.

Sending it in ($100 bankroll):
$45 exacta part-wheel BALLADEER over MISSED THE CUT, PLANETARIO ($90). $10 exacta BALLADEER over IRISH PROPHET.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 02-10-2024, 07:36 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Cross Country Pick Four

PURCHASE

Cross Country Pick Four - Race 5	Leg E of the Cross Country Pick 5
Stakes • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Age 3 • CR: 100 • Purse: $150,000 • Post: 6:05P
OZARK S. OP - R10 - FOR THREE YEAR OLDS. NO NOMINATION FEE. $750 TO PASS THE ENTRY BOX AND $750 ADDITIONAL TO START. SUPPLEMENTARY NOMINATIONS MAY BE MADE BY THE CLOSING TIME OF ENTRIES AT A FEE OF $2,500 WHICH QUALIFIES TO START. $150,000 GUARANTEED. AFTER PAYING 2.5% OF ORIGINAL PURSE TO THE OWNERS OF HORSES FINISHING 6TH THROUGH LAST, 60% OF THE REMAINING PURSE WILL BE PAID TO OWNER(S) OF THE WINNER, 20% TO SECOND, 10% TO THIRD, 6% TO FOURTH AND 4% TO FIFTH. WEIGHTS: 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF $50,000 TWICE ALLOWED 3 LBS.; $50,000 AT ANY TIME ALLOWED 5 LBS. (MAIDEN AND CLAIMING RACES NOT CONSIDERED IN ALLOWANCES.) IN ALLOWANCE STAKES STARTING PREFERENCE WILL BE GIVEN TO HORSES THAT HAVE ACCUMULATED THE HIGHEST EARNINGS EXCLUDING MONEY WON IN RESTRICTED RACES. STARTERS TO BE NAMED THROUGH THE ENTRY BOX BY THE USUAL TIME OF CLOSING. THE OWNER OF THE WINNER TO RECEIVE A TROPHY. NOMINATIONS CLOSED SATURDAY, JANUARY 27,2024 WITH 34 NOMINATIONS.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Dominant Front-runner. TIME FOR TRUTH is the Dominant Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * TIME FOR TRUTH: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. Horse has the highest Tra ckMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
5	TIME FOR TRUTH	7/2	5/2

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
5	TIME FOR TRUTH	5	7/2	Front-runner	83	102	100.5	96.7	93.2
2	LET'S GO MARK	2	12/1	Front-runner	86	87	93.6	66.2	56.2
6	VITEMENT	6	15/1	Front-runner	85	86	83.6	45.2	35.2
7	VALENTINE CANDY	7	7/5	Stalker	95	96	97.6	85.8	82.3
4	AMERICAN RASCAL	4	3/1	Stalker	89	88	76.3	80.4	74.4
1	THE DONEGAL CLAN	1	8/1	Stalker	79	80	64.2	77.0	65.5
3	GOOGOL JOKE	3	8/1	Trailer	88	86	56.8	78.9	68.9

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 02-10-2024, 07:36 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Delta DownsPURCHASE

Delta Downs - Race 4	Exacta / Trifecta (.50 min) / Superfecta (.10 min.) Daily Double (Races 4-5)($1 min.) /Pick 3 (Races 4-5-6) Pick 5 (.50 min.) (Races 4-8)
Claiming $5,000 • 1 Mile • Dirt • Ages 4 and up • CR: 66 • Purse: $13,000 • Post: 6:43P
FOR FILLIES AND MARES FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. WEIGHT, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE JANUARY 10, 2024 ALLOWED 2 LBS. SUCH A RACE SINCE DECEMBER 10, 2023 ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000 (CONDITION ELIGIBILITY PREFERRED). LOUISIANA BRED CLAIMING PRICE $7,500.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Lone Stalker. INDY LOVER is the Lone Stalker of the race. * KEY ANGLES * MAGNA COLORS: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. INDY LOVER: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. AVENDORE: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Po wer Rating. SASSY SAGEY: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface.
4	MAGNA COLORS	5/2	9/2
3	INDY LOVER	6/1	6/1
10	AVENDORE	6/1	7/1
2	SASSY SAGEY	7/2	7/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
11	ARMS APRIORITY	11	6/1	Front-runner	63	53	52.1	48.3	33.8
2	SASSY SAGEY	2	7/2	Alternator/Front-runner	72	67	48.1	50.9	45.4
3	INDY LOVER	3	6/1	Alternator/Stalker	66	56	54.2	54.4	44.9
10	AVENDORE	10	6/1	Trailer	72	68	51.2	56.4	49.9
9	CAYMAN QUEEN	9	12/1	Trailer	66	60	49.2	46.8	35.8
5	LAKE BALI	5	5/1	Trailer	65	59	46.6	46.6	28.1
4	MAGNA COLORS	4	5/2	Trailer	76	72	44.7	57.7	54.7
6	T R'S FIRST	6	15/1	Alternator/Trailer	67	58	44.1	51.9	38.4
12	VALLEJO	12	10/1	Alternator/Non-contender	67	60	52.2	52.2	38.7
1	MARILYN'S MAGIC	1	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	58	53	38.0	38.0	14.5
8	MYLIES STAR	8	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	72	59	37.0	45.0	28.0
7	KAPPA HILL	7	12/1	Alternator/Non-contender	61	54	32.7	40.4	21.4

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 02-10-2024, 07:37 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Tampa Bay Downs - Race #8 - Post: 4:15pm - Stakes - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $100,000 Class Rating: 112 Pelican S.

Rating:

#7 SIBELIUS (ML=3/1)
#6 LITTLE VIC (ML=6/1)
#5 MISH (ML=10/1)
#8 CARAMEL CHIP (ML=12/1)

SIBELIUS - This rider/handler duo has been producing a very profitable ROI, right at +30. I think the shorter trip will help this gelding stay the distance. You have to consider the solid works of late. This animal likes to win on different ovals. The switch in venue today may be a wake up call. Another way to judge class is earnings per race. This thoroughbred has the highest in the field. I think he'll be close at the finish line. LITTLE VIC - This thoroughbred has shown the form to win on different tracks. Making the move from Monmouth Park for today's event, I have to believe he's ready to run. MISH - Camacho is up for another race today after sitting atop this horse for the first try on December 22nd and ought to know the ropes to this one a little better. Shipped in on December 22nd to win here. Take right back again. CARAMEL CHIP - Horse had the second fastest workout of the day prepping for this. I like to see consistency in a racehorse. Look at this horse's PPs. Almost always in the money. This horse is in good physical condition. Finished first on January 14th. This one has shown the class ability to win on different racing tracks. Making the move from Gulfstream Park for today's event, I have to believe he's ready to run.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 NAKATOMI (ML=9/5), #4 SUPER OCHO (CHI) (ML=5/1), #3 DOCTOR OSCAR (ML=8/1),

NAKATOMI - 9/5 is not worth the risk for any horse in a sprint of 6 furlongs that hasn't hit the board in a short distance event recently. SUPER OCHO (CHI) - The effort last out on December 16th probably won't hold up against tougher competition when they turn for home. If this race shapes up right, all the front runners will force a severe duel early. Too bad this horse is one of those front runners. DOCTOR OSCAR - Hasn't been coming close at all of late.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#7 SIBELIUS is going to be the play if we are getting 7/2 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	7 with [5,6,8]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	7 with [5,6,8] with [5,6,8] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	7 with [5,6,8] with [5,6,8] with [5,6,8] Total Cost: $6
SUPER HIGH 5 WAGERS:	Pass

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 02-10-2024, 07:37 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Equibase Special

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 2 - Stakes - 5.0f on the Turf. Purse: $125000 Class Rating: 110

GULFSTREAM PARK TURF SPRINT S. GP - R9 - FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. FREE NOMINATION BY SUNDAY, JANUARY 28. $1,250 TO ENTER. A SUPPLEMENTAL NOMINATION FEE OF $100 MAY BE MADE PRIOR TO CLOSING TIME OF ENTRIES. AFTER PAYMENT OF 1% TO ALL OWNERS OF HORSES FINISHING SIXTH THROUGH LAST, 62% OF THE REMAINING PURSE SHALL BE PAID TO THE OWNER OF THE WINNER, 20%

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 5 HOPE IN HIM 30/1
# 3 THAT'S RIGHT 12/1
# 1 HEAVEN STREET 6/1

HOPE IN HIM has a solid shot to take this contest especially at a long price. Looks decent to be on or close to the front end at the first call. Make a note that this horse runs now going off Lasix today. THAT'S RIGHT - This horse is highly ranked this group in earnings per start at the distance/surface. HEAVEN STREET - The price might be right on this horse. Has to be given consideration versus this group displaying respectable numbers lately and an average speed rating of 98 under similar conditions.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 02-10-2024, 07:37 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Laurel - Race #6 - Post: 2:53pm - Maiden Claiming - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $23,000 Class Rating: 60

Rating:

#5 KAPADOKYA (ML=8/1)
#7 BREAKING RULES (ML=9/2)

KAPADOKYA - Last race out, finished fifth on the mud at Laurel. Will do better in this event. I have to figure Maldonado is making a good move here. This filly can only be aided by the shorter distance. I look for improvement in this event with the addition of Lasix for the second time. BREAKING RULES - Based on this filly's recent efforts, she should benefit from today's shorter distance. I always like to see a pony getting Lasix for the first time. Trombetta adds it on this one today.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 MADDIE TEN (ML=1/1), #8 G'S FIREBALL (ML=6/1),

MADDIE TEN - Pace makes the race. Hard for this early speedster to be able to manage the early pressure from the rest of this bunch. Just cannot play this runner. Didn't show me anything positive in the last race or on Dec 29th. G'S FIREBALL - In any race of 5 1/2 furlongs, I like to wager on a contender that has been sharp in sprint affairs of late. When checking today's Equibase class figure, she will have to notch a much better speed figure than last out to battle in this dirt sprint.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Bet on #5 KAPADOKYA to win if we can get at least 6/5 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [5,7]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Skip
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPER HIGH 5 WAGERS:	Pass

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 02-10-2024, 07:37 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Sam Houston

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 8 - Optional Claiming - 5.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $34500 Class Rating: 85

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS WHICH HAVE NEVER WON A RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER, OR STATE BRED ALLOWANCE OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OR CLAIMING PRICE $50,000. WEIGHT, 122 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $50,000. TEXAS BRED CLAIMING PRICE $55,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 3 CRAKEN JAX 6/1
# 7 CINCO EL SOVEREIGN 20/1
# 1 STORM CATCHER 6/1

CRAKEN JAX is my choice. This gelding looks strong for this event since Thomas has a very strong win percentage with horses going this distance. Must be given consideration here if only for the very good speed figure put up in the last competition. CINCO EL SOVEREIGN - Well above average win rate at this distance/surface. STORM CATCHER - Should be considered based on the very good Equibase Speed Figure recorded in the last affair. Bettors should feel comfortable with this choice given Gonzalez's recent returns at the window.