Monday 2/12/24 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 02-12-2024, 06:23 AM

Al Cimaglia: Yonkers Raceway Late Pick 4 Analysis

February 12, 2024 | By Al Cimaglia
Yonkers Raceway has a 12-race card. The 0.50 Pick 5 with a $10,000 guaranteed pool rolls in Race 5. The $1.00 Late Pick 4 starts in Race 9, and it will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 9 (9:40 PM EST)

1-Nandolo N (5/2)-Tuned-up at M1 with 2 qualifiers and the 2nd one was a 151.1 winning effort with a 27.1 last quarter. Should handle this crew if dialed on high in the first start since 12-4.
3-Funatthebeach N (5-1)-If the one above is off his A-game this veteran should be in striking range to pick-up the pieces down the lane. Jordan Stratton knows how to catch a leader with a stalking trip.

Race 10 (10:00 PM PST)

1-Adam Twelve (3-1)-Has raced well since shipping in from Stga. If Covered Bridge is going to falter in his quest for the 4th straight picture, my 2nd choice has Gingras using the rail to his advantage.
5-Covered Bridge (2-1)-With a short field Stratton will probably time the gate perfectly and blast out again. That plan has worked in the last 2 wins, although last time it took a tight photo to seal the deal. Should be bet hard, won't keep winning forever but will respect chances again.

Race 11 (10:20 PM PST)

1-Rock This Way (5/2)-Gingras should know this Stga shipper as it makes its 4th YR start since shipping in. Hasn't been able to put things together yet. Draws the rail for the 1st time here and will look for a top of the stack trip.
2-Alotbettor N (3-1)-Makes the 1st start for the Adamczyk barn after a claim and usual pilot Matt Kakaley will steer. Knows how to win at this level and will look for an aggressive steer. It could be time to get on the point, steal a quarter and take a picture.
8-My Ultimate Star A (5-1) -Wired the field from post 4 and is back in against the same kind. Went off as a 6/5 choice, Siegelman gets the call for Bartlett and the same plan could happen again. Has the gate speed to get the top and should be a healthy price.

Race 12 (10:40 PM PST)

2-Crunch Time A (6-1)-Team Joe B entry drops, gets post relief, and makes only its 7th start since the beginning of 2023. This is a soft spot and could handle this group IF dialed on high.
5-C-Bet Hanover (3-1)-Drops to the level of its last picture back on 11-17. Has an aggressive pilot in Mark MacDonald and has the gate speed to wire the field. This feels like go-time.

$1.00 Late Pick 4

1,3/1,5/1,2,8/2,5
Total Bet=$24

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 02-12-2024, 06:24 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Fair Grounds - Race #5

#2 Very Satisfactory	He's up in class a bit for this one, but I do wonder exactly how much difference there is between a $30k and a $50k on the lawn here right now. He rallied well at first asking and would benefit if a couple of the pace types flashed some speed.
#6 Max Is G Money	Pace wasn't embarrassed when only beaten a few lengths with special weight company last out, and I liked him a bit that day and think he's a good fit today while in for a tag again. Mild worry about a couple other potential pace threats.
#7 Kingscote	He was pretty flat when going long after a couple of decent starts to open his career, but I think the move to the turf gives him a little upside, and the first two running lines might be just a touch better than they look at first asking. Price for a piece?
Race Summary	Very Satisfactory has some upside in the second lifetime start, and I like that he's almost doubling the price off what I'm hoping was a useful debut.

Fair Grounds - Race #6

#8 Velocitor	Liked him a little in the Woodchopper when he spied and flattened late, but almost his entire page is full of stakes running lines, so the class relief here might be enough. Think his better stuff would do.
#4 Bo Cruz	His only local two-turn try was sharp enough to start him on the road to a try in the Iowa Derby, and he's back fresh today after fading late in that July try. Dangerous.
#2 Who Took the Money	Half-million dollar earner qualifies based on his work having been done in Louisiana-bred company, and he's a pretty reliable finisher who figures to get past anyone struggling to stay late.
Race Summary	Velocitor and Bo Cruz both drop for this one, but Velocity landed a stakes score the last time he saw dirt, and he should be in line for a perfect trip just behind Bo Cruz.

Fair Grounds - Race #7

#9 Calicoco	He has been a revelation on the turf, and he draws well outside of some other potential pace. He's fast enough to get over toward the inside before the first turn, and he is a good fit while trying open company.
#4 Shady McGee	He's a serious finisher who almost always shows up, but he's finding a tougher group here and has been stuck settling for shares over the local course so far this season. Not impossible, but think he's more likely underneath.
#5 Dapper Dude	Think there might still be some upside with this one, and he was in the mix with similar here earlier this season. Midrange price player is another for a share or inclusion on stretch tickets.
Race Summary	Calicoco gets a bit of a test today, but his pace might be dangerous in a spot without a ton of other serious early burn. He seems to have take a liking to the new footing and obviously gets over this turf course nicely.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 02-12-2024, 06:24 AM

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Turf Paradise - Race #2

#5 MR CLUTCH (3-1)	Steady sprinter for high-percentage barn, stands 15/3-2-2 on main track.
#4 BOOMER JUSTICE (5-2)	Well spotted, won his last two races off similar rest.
#1 QUARKY (4-1)	Has speed and rail, eligible for easier spot, tough take off last pair.
Race Summary	MR CLUTCH is a steady sprinter for a high-percentage barn. The lightly-raced 7-year-old stands 15/3-2-2 if you don’t count his turf starts, a good sign in this field. Bet to win and place.

Turf Paradise - Race #3

#3 LT NORM (7-2)	Overland route took its toll in last two starts, can break through in this field.
#2 UNCLE JUJU (6-5)	Showed speed at Del Mar and Santa Anita against $50k Cal breds, wears blinkers.
#1 GRUMPY BAY (3-1)	Worked well for debut despite gap in training, but didn’t fire at 5-1 odds.
Race Summary	LT. NORM, plagued by his second 6-wide trip in a row while chasing the 3-to-5 winner at Sunland Park, is a good value play off his improved form as a gelding. He runs for his cheapest tag yet for a hot barn. Bet to win and place.

Turf Paradise - Race #8

#3 MINDSHARE (2-1)	Good fit in claiming sprints out of town, should go well in seasonal debut.
#4 LITTLE CASINO (9-5)	Has best numbers, returns to sprint with blinkers back on.
#2 R M C HOOK’EM (3-1)	Had loyal following at Golden Gate but finished out of money in six straight.
Race Summary	MINDSHARE starts fresh for his new connections upon arrival from Los Alamitos. He was no factor in allowance company there but he won 3 of his last 6 starts for a claiming tag and won twice locally earlier in his career. Bet to win and place.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 02-12-2024, 06:25 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Fair Grounds

PURCHASE

Fair Grounds - Race 7	Exacta / $0.50 Trifecta / $0.10 Superfecta Daily Double
Allowance • 1 1/16 Miles • Turf • Ages 4 and up • CR: 99 • Purse: $58,000 • Post: 3:45P
(RAIL AT 21 FEET). FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON A RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, WAIVER CLAIMING, STARTER OR STATE BRED ALLOWANCE OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. WEIGHT, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF TWO RACES AT A MILE OR OVER ON THE TURF SINCE DECEMBER 12 ALLOWED 2 LBS. SUCH A RACE SINCE THEN ALLOWED 4 LBS. (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $30,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ALLOWANCES). (IF DEEMED INADVISABLE BY MANAGEMENT TO RUN THIS RACE OVER THE TURF COURSE, IT WILL BE RUN ON THE MAIN TRACK AT ONE MILE AND ONE SIXTEENTH.)

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * BABA VOSS: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. SHADY MCGEE (IRE): Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. HARD RYE GUY: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. MAASAI WARRIOR: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
2	BABA VOSS	7/2	9/2
4	SHADY MCGEE (IRE)	12/1	7/1
11	HARD RYE GUY	12/1	8/1
8	MAASAI WARRIOR	12/1	8/1
16	FROMANOTHAMUTHA	7/2	10/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
9	CALICOCO	9	9/2	Front-runner	88	91	103.2	85.7	65.7
3	MISSIONAIRE	3	4/1	Front-runner	89	84	86.6	78.0	59.0
12	FAITH RUNNER	12	15/1	Front-runner	83	78	64.2	60.0	32.5
10	PIKE PLACE	10	8/1	Stalker	91	87	81.4	84.4	65.9
16	FROMANOTHAMUTHA	16	7/2	Stalker	99	93	49.8	89.4	78.9
14	LUNA VIEJA	14	4/1	Alternator/Stalker	93	86	81.4	85.4	66.4
11	HARD RYE GUY	11	12/1	Trailer	95	96	92.4	88.2	80.2
1	COACHES MEETING	1	12/1	Trailer	84	93	88.2	88.2	64.7
2	BABA VOSS	2	7/2	Trailer	101	101	83.7	93.6	91.1
6	SOLID COUNTRY GOLD	6	8/1	Trailer	96	94	71.4	89.8	75.8
4	SHADY MCGEE (IRE)	4	12/1	Trailer	99	90	69.2	92.8	81.3
13	FREDDY J	13	9/2	Trailer	90	88	63.0	67.5	43.5
5	DAPPER DUDE	5	12/1	Trailer	82	76	61.5	75.8	58.8
15	UNANIMOUSLY	15	6/1	Trailer	91	83	58.8	70.2	51.7
8	MAASAI WARRIOR	8	12/1	Trailer	98	97	56.4	89.2	76.2
7	DAZZLEMESILVER	7	12/1	Alternator/Non-contender	86	89	89.1	71.4	51.4

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 02-12-2024, 06:25 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Mahoning Valley Race CoursePURCHASE

Mahoning Valley Race Course - Race 8	Exacta / 50 cent Trifecta / 10 cent Superfecta
Allowance • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 91 • Purse: $26,400 • Post: 4:02P
FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER, OR OHIO BRED OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JANUARY 12 ALLOWED 2 LBS. (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $15,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN WEIGHT ALLOWANCES) (OHIO REGISTERED FOALS PREFERRED).

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Dominant Front-runner. LADY LOTTIE is the Dominant Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * LADY LOTTIE: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
1	LADY LOTTIE	8/5	2/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	LADY LOTTIE	1	8/5	Front-runner	87	91	85.4	83.0	80.0
5	LOST BIKINI	5	3/1	Front-runner	88	66	66.9	64.2	54.7
7	AUJARA	7	6/1	Trailer	84	78	63.4	75.2	70.7
6	KINGDOM QUEEN	6	5/2	Trailer	87	74	51.0	80.2	75.7
3	KARMA GHIA	3	15/1	Alternator/Non-contender	70	65	61.2	56.6	46.6
2	TIMELY SECRET	2	10/1	Alternator/Non-contender	79	77	60.4	53.2	42.7
4	SUZY Q THE QUEEN	4	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	70	60	56.4	50.8	36.8

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 02-12-2024, 06:25 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Mahoning Valley Race Course

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 4 - Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $12100 Class Rating: 59

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JANUARY 12 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 3 THEODOROPOULOS 8/5
# 6 MISS LINDYSUE 5/1
# 2 LITTLE DOYLE 9/5

THEODOROPOULOS looks to be a formidable contender. Shows evidence of the look of a profitable play, averaging a solid 54 speed figure which is one of the top in this group. Buttigieg has a strong winning percentage with horses racing in dirt sprint races. Have to play this mare with the formidable earnings per start in dirt sprint contests. MISS LINDYSUE - With a +24 return on investment, this jock and trainer combo has produced very good profits lately for investors. Looks competitive versus this group and should be one of the front-runners. LITTLE DOYLE - I would back this filly on the jock and trainer numbers alone. She looks very strong in this slot and I expect will be on the lead or close at the halfway point.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 02-12-2024, 06:25 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Turf Paradise - Race #2 - Post: 1:08pm - Claiming - 5.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $16,000 Class Rating: 88

Rating:

#5 MR. CLUTCH (ML=3/1)

MR. CLUTCH - Stalking speed. My friends and I like this horse. The morning line odds on this gelding are higher than those of the other entrant from the shedrow of trainer Rosales. Often the longer-priced part of a 'split' entry wins.

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 SPEEDING STYLE (ML=2/1), #4 BOOMER JUSTICE (ML=5/2), #1 QUARKY (ML=4/1),

SPEEDING STYLE - A bit of a less than stellar effort when this gelding finished third. BOOMER JUSTICE - Couldn't close any ground at all on December 17th. Hard to invest in in today's event at the expected odds. Hasn't finished in the money in any short distance events recently. Doubtful to see him doing it in today's event either. Finished eighth in his most recent effort with a common speed fig. When I look at today's class rating, it would take an improved performance to prove victorious after that in this bunch. QUARKY - Tough to support any vulnerable equine in a sprint contest if he hasn't hit the board in a sprint in the last two months. You believe this animal is going to win just because he's always close. Just doesn't win regularly.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#5 MR. CLUTCH is the play if we get odds of 1/1 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	Skip
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Skip
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 02-12-2024, 06:26 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Parx Racing - Race #6 - Post: 2:20pm - Claiming - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $18,000 Class Rating: 82

Rating:

#7 CENTER MID MADDIE (ML=3/1)
#9 SAPONARA (ML=4/1)

CENTER MID MADDIE - You probably want to overlook that last event at Parx Racing on a track listed as good where he finished out of the money. Should do well right here in this race with the benefit of a fast track. Dropped in class last time around the track, running against the same type today. Getting a break of 6 lbs from last race at Parx Racing. He should make the most of this advantage. SAPONARA - Likes to go to the lead and the fact that today is a shorter distance should be favorable. This thoroughbred coming off a sharp effort in the last thirty days is a win candidate in my humble opinion. Took a big class drop last out, and I think he may have needed it. Flores-Coba enters him at a similar class level today. I'd expect an improved performance.

Vulnerable Contenders: #5 AVA K'S BOY (ML=2/1), #8 TACO BEAN (ML=6/1),

AVA K'S BOY - Morning line odds of 2/1 make this animal a pass by my examination. TACO BEAN - This horse likes to land in the top three, but doesn't usually win. Leave out of the top spot. Garnered a most unsatisfactory speed rating last out in a $7,500 Claiming race on January 29th. Doubtful to see an improved performance off of that fig.

GUEST COMMENTARY: The Brain - SAPONARA - Has been racing regularly since a 'vacation'. Based on my data, horses hit their peak cycle in their 3rd or 4th race back. Watch out for this thoroughbred right here.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Put your money on #7 CENTER MID MADDIE on the nose if you can get odds of 2/1 or more
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [7,9]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Skip
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 02-12-2024, 06:26 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Turf Paradise

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 4 - Optional Claiming - 6.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $32500 Class Rating: 98

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER, STATE BRED OR TRIAL OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES OR CLAIMING PRICE $20,000. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JANUARY 12 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $20,000. ARIZONA BRED CLAIMING PRICE $25,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 2 BRADY BOY 9/5
# 4 MR. WHO 2/1
# 3 LESSONS OF AUTISM 5/2

BRADY BOY could be the bet in here. This equine is in the upper half of this group of animals in earnings per start at the distance/surface. He has earned very strong figures under today's conditions and will almost certainly fare well versus this group. He has been running admirably and the speed figures are among the top in this group. MR. WHO - Has been travelling soundly and has among the most competitive speed in the race for today's distance. Will most likely go to the front end and might never look back. LESSONS OF AUTISM - Could best this field based on the speed fig - 86 - of his last affair. Always good to invest in a handler with this kind of very good win percentage - 22 percent - at this distance & surface.