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582) Nuggets vs Bucks (5:00pm)
Pick: Milwaukee Bucks +1.5 (-110)
Risk: $1,100 to win $1,000
Analysis: Precisely two weeks ago, the Nuggets secured a significant win against the Bucks, claiming victory by 6 points. Looking ahead to this upcoming game, I view it as an excellent opportunity to go against them, particularly considering the Bucks' designation as home underdogs. Denver's lackluster track record of 10-17 ATS on the road and 19-25 ATS overall this season adds weight to this decision. Notably, Denver has averaged only 110.4 points per game in their last 5 games, suggesting a potential regression as we approach the All-Star break.
In a highly promising turn of events, D. Lillard made a triumphant return to the lineup against the Hornets, displaying his prowess with an outstanding performance: 9-18 from the field, 8 assists, and 3 steals, all of which contributed to a commanding 120-84 victory. Lillard has averaged 24.3 points, 7.4 assists and 4.2 rebounds in 38 games versus the Nuggets in his career! Reflecting on recent events, the Bucks encountered disappointment in their solitary home underdog appearance this season, falling short against the Timberwolves. It's noteworthy to consider Damian Lillard's unexpected absence, which likely payed a pivotal role in that outcome. As tonight marks only the second instance this season where the Milwaukee Bucks are listed as underdogs at the Fiserv Forum, there's a strong conviction that they will rise to the occasion at home, where they boast an impressive 22-6 record this season. Anticipate them delivering another stellar performance with Lillard back in the lineup.
7 Unit Play - Take Texas Tech (-140) Over Kansas. (9:00p.m, Monday, February 12th)
Texas Tech enters this meeting 17-6 on the season, while Kansas is presently 19-5. Texas Tech defeated UCF 66-59 on Saturday, improving to 6-4 in their previous ten games. Kansas defeated Baylor at home on Saturday, 64-61. Texas Tech has a strong home record of 12-1 this season, yet Kansas has struggled on the road, going 2-4. When it comes to offensive performance, Texas Tech leads the pack, ranking 32nd in offensive ratings, while Kansas ranks 84th. Texas Tech also dominates shooting from the perimeter. Kansas has a very good defense, but I believe the tempo they run will be a concern for them in this matchup because Texas Tech runs at a much slower pace. Because of Texas Tech's outstanding home performance, Kansas's road performance, and the intensity of the Red Raiders' overpowering offense, we cannot ignore these confluences and must ride the understanding.
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