Friday 2/16/24 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Jeff Siegel's What You Need to Know - Santa Anita - 2/16/24

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February 16, 2024
Jeff Siegel’s 1/ST Glance: Santa Anita – Friday, February 16, 2024

RACE 1

3-SNEAK A SMILE
Degree of confidence: B+

• Strong runner-up over this course and distance in a similar spot.
• Fast on speed figures, most effective when given a patient ride.
• Late developing four-year-old gelding has room for improvement.

Others to consider: 5-Forty Niner Gold.


RACE 2

3-TIZZY TWISTER
Degree of confidence: B-

• Four time winner over the Santa Anita main track, fits this level.
• Finished in the money in eight of nine career starts at a flat mile.
• One paced grinding type is most effective when close to the pace.

Others to consider: 2-Sand to Sea.


RACE 3

3-STRESSED
Degree of confidence: C+

• Solid second off a layoff in a slightly tougher affair last month.
• Three time winner over the local lawn; appears set for her best.
• Dangerous as the controlling speed, lands a favorable race flow.

Others to consider: 4-Teen Drama.


RACE 4

5-PACE LANE
Degree of confidence: B-

• Bred to win early; shows a healthy work pattern at San Luis Rey Downs.
• One of two for Peter Miller; Avoir is making her first start on a dirt track.
• Attracts Flavien Prat; is facing a modest field and is a dangerous fresh face.

Others to consider: 4-Avoir; 1-Pacific Rose.


RACE 5

1-TOPOLINA
Degree of confidence: C

• Represents dangerous inside speed from a favorable rail draw.
• Has hit the board in three of six starts over the local turf course.
• Always suspect under pressure; will take them as far as she can.

Others to consider: 7-Inner Beauty (Ire); 2-Yolo Calls.


RACE 6

2-MISS COMMNDER
Degree of confidence: C

• Returns to her ($16,000) claim level and switches to the dirt strip.
• Shows the popular blinkers off angle; projects to be a pace stalker.
• Barn has enjoyed a good meet; the switch to Franco is a plus factor.

Others to consider: 8-Yo YO Mama.


RACE 7

5-ALIGATO
Degree of confidence: C+

• Winless in two years but his recent races have earned good figures.
• Lacks tactical speed, always susceptible to traffic and pace issues.
• In the money in his last eight starts; hoping for some help up front.

Others to consider: 11-Maltese Falcon.


RACE 8

4-MIDNIGHT FURY
Degree of confidence: B-

• Significant class drop after a poor run in a starter allowance turf race.
• Much more comfortable on dirt; likely to produce big improvement.
• Best work is on or near the lead; projected pace flow looks favorable.

Others to consider: 1-Elector; 8-Tiz Tok.


RACE 9

3-PRANCINGTHRUPARIS
Degree of confidence: B-

• Route-to-sprint angle; exits a stakes race, gets ideal trip and class level.
• Has displayed good sprint speed; projects to have a strong pace presence.
• One of several entrants with credentials to win in a tough, contentious heat.

Others to consider: 6-Safa; 8-Shamrockin; 7-Quick Kate.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Golden Gate Pick 4 | Friday, Feb. 16

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February 16, 2024 | By Frank Carulli
GOLDEN GATE FIELDS PICK 4
Friday, February 16, 2024

It will be a sprint to the finish of Golden Gate Fields’ Late Pick 4 this Friday, Feb. 16. Solve the three 5-1/2F races in the sequence and you could be on your way to a Pick 4 payout or, better yet, a Jackpot Pick 6 payout that covers races 2 through 7 and features $71,936 carryover. Here’s a closer look:

GG 4th race (5:15 p.m. EST) -- DAWN AT LAST showed a new dimension after she dueled through fast fractions, took back on the turn and re-rallied at this distance to improve her Golden Gate record to 3-for-8. Use her on the class rise. LILA AT THE BEACH has good tactical speed and can top $100,000 in earnings after she just missed in her three-peat attempt last out. TIZ A TIGER overcame those moderate fractions and rallied past ‘Lila’ for her second win in a row.

GG 5th race (5:45 p.m. EST) -- KITTEN’S KID carried her speed to victory for the first time in 16 months two starts back, should face some pressure today and is a risky, short-priced Pick 4 play, so go deep in this leg.

GG 6h race (6:15 p.m. EST) -- RAMATHORN led clear with first-time Lasix but was passed by ROCKET RHYTHM and AUTISM PUZZLE in the stretch at the same level. The outcome could be reversed at 5-1/2F today. THIRSTY BABY rallied to break her maiden going away for a $12,500 tag two starts ago and is a late-running threat for a hot barn in her second start off the claim.

GG 7th race (6:45 p.m. EST) -- SAHARA SUE pulled away on the front-end from a dreadful field to an easy score at the bottom level, but she is a threat to repeat in a field that lacks speed. SWEET LAYLA RAY made middle moves for twice this price at one mile, now takes a magnified class drop on the return to a sprint.

Suggested 50-Cent Ticket
GG 4th Race: 1, 3, 4
GG 5th Race: 2, 3, 4, 5, 7
GG 6th Race: 1, 2, 3, 4
GG 7th Race: 3, 4
Cost for 50-cent ticket: $60

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

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Fair Grounds - Race #2

#7 Giant Tude	She woke up when sent long at second asking, and she should be in line for another good tracking trip today. Any reasonable step forward in the third start makes her tough.
#9 Carolina Jacy	She's one of the ones while getting around two turns, and she'll probably find herself close to the splits. Still, I wouldn't be enthused about taking any kind of short price after she was flat late at 50 cents on the dollar last out.
#5 Fist City	There might be enough other forward players to keep her honest up top, but I like the way she stayed on when getting this trip and class level for the first time last out.
Race Summary	Giant Tude loomed before just flattening late in the route debut last time out, but she might have just a tiny bit more upside with that first two-turn run under her belt.

Fair Grounds - Race #7

#5 Committee of One	He obviously classes up well -- he graduated in a $250,000 stakes race and was only two lengths off a super sharp Euro winner in the Breeders' Cup last year. Also, he's one of the only reliable finishers signed on. Probably supposed to handle these.
#3 Classic Power	He was overlooked at 46/1 in his first spin over the local course, but he backed it up with another big effort last out and makes sense on overall form. Race shape could be tricky, but he's a dangerous forward threat all the same.
#1 Gabarra	He got past a few horses here last month in his turf debut, but he's got a couple lengths to turn on Classic Power, and that guy might not be his biggest worry here.
Race Summary	Committee of One is probably going to be overbet, but I think he's tough to get past in here. He's got a major class edge on these and gets back to his best trip today.

Fair Grounds - Race #8

#7 Maylen	Won't be any shock to see someone with better pace land this, but I think some of the logical forward players have some questions to answer, and she proved a really good fit when finishing for second with similar last out. Picks them up?
#9 Wec Keah	She goes right in for a tag after setting the tempo briefly in the debut run with better, and she seems like a danger even though I could also see her getting hooked and caving.
#6 Tootoo Tourist	Take a look at her and the other first-timers, as one of them might be competitive right out of the box at this level while their connections send them out with modest expectations overall.
Race Summary	Maylen gets her best chance if the speed hooks up, and there are a couple of potential forward players to keep the pace honest. If they're toiling late, she might have enough to land it.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

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Laurel Park - Race #1

#7 THE ICE MAN CARLOS (15-1)	Took some play, bothered longshot winner, takes over that role today.
#3 STELLARS IN CHARGE (5-2)	Blew clear lead as debut favorite and was claimed.
#5 WITHOUT PRETENCE (2-1)	Faded chasing fave in 2-turn sprint, in new barn for return.
Race Summary	THE ICE MAN CARLOS worked forwardly for his debut at this level, but he bore in at the start and gave way off a 3-wide stalking trip on a sloppy track. He’s worth a win and place bet for a longshot barn with these types.

Laurel Park - Race #2

#2 SENATE CHAMBER (9-2)	Takes magnified class drop to try and end looooong winless drought.
#4 NICK’S LITTLE BOY (12	Lone winner since August 16 eligibility portion of race conditions.
#7 SHOOT THEMESSENGER (7-2)	Rallied for third at 6F for higher tag, picks up 9 pounds.
Race Summary	The field is a combined 50/2-3-9 since the eligibility cutoff date for this 7F bottom-level claiming race. SENATE CHAMBER has kept the best company and gets the call on the class drop below his claim level. Play a 2-ALL exacta.

Laurel Park - Race #4

#2 LISA’S PALACE (6-1)	Visually impressive off perfect trip in sprint victory, taken to repeat.
#3 SKY VICTORY (7-5)	Dueled and gave way against multiple stakes-placed winner, gets blinkers.
#1 CALL ANOTHER PLAY (8-1)	Improved with Lasix, moves outside in, price attached.
Race Summary	LISA’S PALACE accelerated quickly on the turn to blow past two of the favorites en route to a romp at 6F with second-time Lasix. She laid closer to the pace and can handle the class hike if she handles the added ground. Bet to win and place.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Sunland Park

PURCHASE

Sunland Park - Race 5	.50 Pick 5(Races 5-6-7-8-9)/$1 Exacta/$1 Trifecta/.10 Superfecta
Maiden • 350 Yards • Dirt • Age 3 • CR: 79 • Purse: $27,000 • Post: 2:09P
QUARTER HORSE 350Y, FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 126 LBS.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * JETT RINK: Quarter Horse has a Fast Break Style designation and no horse in a post position next to it gets out of the gate fast. Quarter horse has the highest last race Equibase Speed Ra ting. ONEFAMOUS LITTLELADY: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse has the highest average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. EB DIEGO GO: Horse ranks in the top three in average Eq uibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
9	JETT RINK	10/1	5/1
6	ONEFAMOUS LITTLELADY	15/1	5/1
12	APOLLITICAL WZY	20/1	7/1
7	EB DIEGO GO	10/1	8/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	DISREGARD MY FASHION	1	20/1	Average	0	0	5.3	0.0	0.0
2	EF FACILE DYNASTY	2	7/2	Fast	61	61	3.5	0.0	0.0
3	STAY CALM	3	9/2	Slow/Trouble-prone	0	0	7.2	0.0	0.0
4	IAM OUTTA HERE	4	8/1	Slow	0	0	7.6	0.0	0.0
5	ITS A NEW GENERATION	5	5/2	Average	0	0	5.7	0.0	0.0
6	ONEFAMOUS LITTLELADY	6	15/1	Average	83	68	6.0	0.0	0.0
7	EB DIEGO GO	7	10/1	Average	71	67	4.9	0.0	0.0
8	SIX EAGLES MOON YOU	8	15/1	Average	61	58	4.5	0.0	0.0
9	JETT RINK	9	10/1	Fast	76	67	2.0	0.0	0.0
10	HENOSHESJUMPN	10	20/1	Average	0	0	5.6	0.0	0.0
11	MONARCA SPECIAL	11	20/1	Slow	0	0	7.0	0.0	0.0
12	APOLLITICAL WZY	12	20/1	Average	71	70	4.4	0.0	0.0

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Equibase SpecialPURCHASE

Equibase Special - Race 3	Leg C of the Santa Anita All Turf Pick 3
Optional Claiming $50,000 • 6 Furlongs • Turf • Age 3 • CR: 87 • Purse: $67,000 • Post: 4:29P
SA - R9 - (RAIL AT 20 FEET). FOR CALIFORNIA BRED OR CALIFORNIA SIRED FILLIES THREE YEARS OLD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON $18,000 ONCE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING OR STARTER OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OR CLAIMING PRICE $50,000. WEIGHT, 122 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $50,000.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Dominant Front-runner. THE SHUSHALA is the Dominant Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * THE SHUSHALA: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. Horse has a TrackMaster "+" d esignation or an "L" designation. SOMEONE LIKE YOU: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. RECALCITRANT: Today is a sprint a nd the horse is carrying at least 120 lbs.
5	THE SHUSHALA	4/1	3/1
9	SOMEONE LIKE YOU	8/1	9/1
2	RECALCITRANT	15/1	10/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
5	THE SHUSHALA	5	4/1	Front-runner	88	87	102.4	82.5	75.5
2	RECALCITRANT	2	15/1	Front-runner	84	78	92.5	53.6	38.6
4	BACK ON TRACK	4	15/1	Front-runner	77	69	82.5	52.1	32.1
9	SOMEONE LIKE YOU	9	8/1	Front-runner	79	68	80.2	69.7	62.7
6	SAFA	6	5/1	Front-runner	78	75	79.6	63.5	48.0
10	CLUBHOUSE BRIDE	10	5/1	Front-runner	75	77	74.0	73.5	62.0
1	SATELLITE HEART	1	15/1	Stalker	72	71	84.9	52.8	32.8
3	PRANCINGTHRUPARIS	3	6/1	Stalker	79	69	77.7	72.0	63.5
12	GREASE MISSLE	12	5/1	Stalker	81	82	76.5	77.0	64.5
8	SHAMROCKIN	8	8/1	Trailer	84	82	54.0	77.7	68.7
7	QUICK KATE	7	7/2	Trailer	82	75	37.0	64.5	56.0
11	DORIE MILLER	11	8/1	Alternator/Non-contender	74	73	52.0	69.8	50.8

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Golden Hour Wagers

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 3 - Optional Claiming - 6.0f on the Turf. Purse: $67000 Class Rating: 87

SA - R9 - FOR CALIFORNIA BRED OR CALIFORNIA SIRED FILLIES THREE YEARS OLD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON $18,000 ONCE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING OR STARTER OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OR CLAIMING PRICE $50,000. WEIGHT, 122 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $50,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 5 THE SHUSHALA 4/1
# 7 QUICK KATE 7/2
# 8 SHAMROCKIN 8/1

I favor THE SHUSHALA here. Could provide positive dividends based on very strong recent Equibase speed figs with an average of 87. This filly obviously likes the distance, going 1 for 1 in her races recently. Must be given consideration based on the decent speed figure posted in the last contest. SHAMROCKIN - Is hard not to look at given the company run in lately. Has been running soundly and has among the strongest speed in the race for today's distance.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Golden Gate Fields - Race #1 - Post: 1:45pm - Maiden Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $13,000 Class Rating: 71

Rating:

#6 PURPLE MOUNTAIN (ML=9/5)
#3 KEEPYOURPRANCEON (ML=9/2)
#7 CHAMAVILLE (ML=4/1)


PURPLE MOUNTAIN - This thoroughbred coming off a nice performance in the last month is a solid contender in my book. This filly is at the top in EPS (earnings per start). Check out this horse in the paddock. This filly garnered a nice figure of 70 in her last race. That speed rating should be good enough to win this time around. KEEPYOURPRANCEON - Ramirez, the trainer, shows intent by adding Lasix today. A positive sign. CHAMAVILLE - This filly is in nice condition, having run a nice race on January 26th, finishing second. Three consecutive improved Equibase speed figs (58-60-66) make this one a strong contender.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 MISS WILL (ML=9/2), #5 SOCIAL STATUS (ML=6/1), #1 HAPPY CHAPPY (ML=8/1),

MISS WILL - 9/2 is too low of a price to take on this participant. SOCIAL STATUS - If she goes off anywhere near the morning line of 6/1, I'll have to pass. HAPPY CHAPPY - Just don't think she is pegged at the proper price at the likely odds.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Save the win money to bet more in another race
EXACTA WAGERS:	6 with [3,7]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [3,6,7] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPER HIGH FIVE WAGERS:	Pass

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Aqueduct

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 2 - Claiming - 8.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $55000 Class Rating: 96

FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. WEIGHT, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF TWO RACES AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE AUGUST 1 ALLOWED 3 LBS. SUCH A RACE SINCE THEN ALLOWED 5 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $32,000

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 6 BOLD VICTORY 7/2
# 2 MAGNOLIA MIDNIGHT 5/2
# 1 JUST CALL RAY 3/1

BOLD VICTORY is my choice. The winning percentage shown by horses entered by Dutrow running at this distance are the most respectable in this group. This conditioner has the strongest return on investment in this field with entries running at this distance and surface. MAGNOLIA MIDNIGHT - Kantarmaci has this gelding racing well and is a respectable choice based on the competitive Speed Figures put up in route races lately. Looks very strong to be up on the front end at the first call. JUST CALL RAY - Could best this group of animals based on the speed figure - 88 - of his last contest. Has formidable speed figures and has to be considered for a bet here.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Charles Town - Race #5 - Post: 9:02pm - Maiden Special - 6.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $26,500 Class Rating: 74

Rating:

#4 DR JACK FLYER (ML=5/2)


DR JACK FLYER - He finished in the place spot January 27th, but was well clear of the 3rd horse. Bocachica comes to get aboard after getting to know the gelding in the last affair. Carrying 6 pounds less this race. Trainer has him in a good spot. This animal is tops in EPS (earnings per start). He looks solid in today's race. Starting from the inside, this horse should have a distinct edge. His front-running style should serve him well in this short race of 6 1/2 furlongs.

Vulnerable Contenders: #9 LEGENDAIRE (ML=4/1), #6 PROSPECTIVE LOVE (ML=9/2), #8 SHARP STYLE (ML=5/1),

LEGENDAIRE - Just cannot bet on this entrant. Didn't show me anything positive last time around the track or on Oct 8th. Recorded a disappointing speed rating last race out in a $45,000 Maiden Claiming race on Nov 26th. Not probable to see an improved performance off of that fig. PROSPECTIVE LOVE - Trying to beat this entrant in today's event at the reward of 9/2. SHARP STYLE - Generally I need a sprinter to have some success lately in sprint contests in order to back him.

GUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - DR JACK FLYER - I scan the TrackMaster Platinum PPs for this type of horse. Has the top TrackMaster Power Rating by at least 5 points.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Put your money on #4 DR JACK FLYER on the nose if you can get odds of 1/1 or more
EXACTA WAGERS:	4 with [6,8]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass