3-19-09

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 3-19-09

SIXTH SENSE

2% TEXAS A&M/BYU OVER 139.5 No Higher than 139.5

2% RADFORD/N. CAROLINA UNDER 163

3% MICHIGAN/CLEMSON OVER 138 This is a 2% play if the total is higher than 138

2% VILLANOVA -16.5 No Higher than -17

3% BINGHAMTON/DUKE UNDER 137.5

2% MORGAN STATE/OKLAHOMA UNDER 135.5

2% W. KENTUCKY/ILLINOIS UNDER 126

2% UCLA -8

2% OKLAHOMA -16.5 No Higher than -17

2% ILLINOIS -5

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 3-19-09

igz1 sports

Thursday Action !!
CBB
5* Under 131.5 (-110) Northridge vs Memphis
4* Uconn -20.5 (-110)
3* VCU +8 (-110)

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 3-19-09

Dave M@linsky
6* Gonzaga
5* Under Duke
4* Oklahoma

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 3-19-09

Handicapper: Matt FAGRO Sports
Sport: College Basketball
Game: Michigan Wolverines @ Clemson Tigers - Thursday March 19, 2009 7:10 pm
Pick: 3 units ATS: Michigan Wolverines +5 (-110)



Clemson started the season 16-0 and expectations grew once again only to see the Tigers tumble again. They went 7-8 in their last 15 games including a first round loss in the ACC Tournament against lowly Georgia Tech. This is nothing new. Last season, Clemson started the season 10-0 and 12-1 only to finish 12-9 in their final 21 games including a first round NCAA tournament exit against Villanova. Two years ago, Clemson started the season 17-0 only to finish 4-9 in its final 13 regular season games then lost in the first round of the ACC Tournament and had to settle for an NIT invitation. Want more history? Three years ago, it was an 11-0 start and a 7-11 finish along with a first round ACC Tournament loss and another NIT bid. This tells us two things. First, the non-conference schedules have been a joke and those cupcake wins do nothing in preparation for the ACC. This years non-conference schedule was ranked 260th in the nation. Second, the coaching is a real issue. Oliver Purnell has put a good resume together in his six years at Clemson but he has yet to get the Tigers over the hump. Last year was a classic example as he led them to their first NCAA Tournament in nine years only for them to bow out after one game. With the athletes this team has, they should be a lot better. Michigan built a very good resume in the non-conference season as it defeated UCLA and Duke. A 3-1 start in the Big Ten turned some heads but a 2-7 run ensued and it looked as though the 11-year NCAA Tournament drought would continue. The Wolverines finished strong however as they went 4-2 in their final six regular season games before splitting in the Big Ten Tournament. Michigans success or lack thereof comes down to making shots. If the shots are falling, the Wolverines can beat anyone but if they are not going down, victorious becomes more difficult. As with any John Beilein coached team, Michigan takes care of the ball as it has a 1.38 assist/turnover ratio which is ninth best in the nation. It is also shooting 75.5 percent from the charity stripe which is 14th in the country. Those are two of the bigger statistical categories to look at come tournament time and the Wolverines have advantages in both in this matchup. They also have an edge in overall efficiency and that is pretty big considering they are the underdog. Back to the coaching, Beilein is spectacular. He is the 7th head coach all-time to bring four different teams into the NCAA Tournament. I will take him over Purnell with four days to prepare any day of the week. If the perimeter shots are falling at just an average clip, the Wolverines have a great shot at the upset. 3* Michigan Wolverines

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 3-19-09

helmut

3/19/09 CBB Oklahoma Over 134.5 -110 (728)

ANALYSIS: The Sooner’s were a great offensive team in their non-conference portion of the schedule scoring at least 70 points in every game. It’s not like they played all cupcakes either in games against the weaker competition they put up an average offensive efficiency of 1.22 averaging 88 ppg. The Bears have shown a willingness to play up-tempo, as their bracket buster game against Towson was fast pace as well as several non-conference games against up-tempo teams. The Bears did play some tough teams (Mississippi, Washington and Maryland) earlier in the season and they did manage to put up at least 65 points in each of these games. I think this game is going to be played to a pretty good pace and the Sooner’s should have no issues scoring here and Morgan State looks to have enough offense to get this one up and over the total.


3/19/09 CBB Notre Dame Over 146.5 -110 (740)

ANALYSIS: I realize that the Irish have now played 9 out of the last 10 under the total but this one looks much too low. The first thing that stands out to me is that I think we will get a really fast pace to this game. The Lobo’s are just coming off a game against Nebraska that played to 152 total possessions. Most of the Lobo games in the non-conference schedule against up-tempo opponents were really fast paced games and no reason to think this game against the Irish will not be as well considering the teams have very little time to prepare a defensive game plan and are both really solid offensive teams. With a 150+ possession game one of these teams is really going to have an off shooting night for this to stay under the total.


gl

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 3-19-09

Fairway Jay
American +16.5
California -1
Big Drive-- Washington -5.5

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 3-19-09

DOC

3 Unit Play. Take Edmonton -105 over Colorado

The Oilers come into Colorado off a 2-1 shootout win over the Blues Tuesday to put them in eight place in a tight race for the last spot in the western conference. They now face a Colorado team who leads the season series with a 3-2 edge, the Aves are dealing with some injuries with Paul Stastny being questionable and that with Salei, Foote, Tjarnqvist and Sakic out (Been out most of the year). Edmonton has a huge edge in goal with Roloson who has been solid, in betting I don't believe in the term "must win" but this is the type of game the Oilers have to take advantage of and I can't see how Colorado opened a favorite I made the Oilers a thirty cent favorite and I think we have some tremendous value here.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 3-19-09

Stu Feiner

2500 Dime High Roller Double Digit Cover

Mississippi State (149) vs Washington (-6) @ Portland

Mississippi State seems to be a public play, but I love the Pac-10 champion Huskies to cover this number later today in Portland. Washington had won six straight and nine of 10 before being knocked off by a quality Arizona State team last Friday in the conference tournament. That early exit allowed UW to rest up and re-focus for the Big Dance. Meanwhile, the Bulldogs experienced an emotional ride in having to win four games in four days culminating with last Sunday’s SEC Tournament title win over Tennessee in Tampa. Then it was back to Starkville and now all the way out to Portland, where a pro Washington crowd will be on-hand at the Rose Garden. The Dogs went 4-5 ATS in non-conference games and they’ll come crashing down against a balanced Washington club. Look for the Huskies to attack MSU big man Jarvis Varnado inside. If Jon Brockman, Isaiah Thomas, Justin Dentmon and Venoy Overton can keep coming at the MSU big fella and get him in foul trouble,then the Dogs’ chances are toast. Remember, this is a 25-win Washington team that has won and covered six straight as a neutral court favorite of 3 ½ to 6 points. Mississippi State had a magical run last weekend, but this is just too difficult a turnaround spot for MSU as a better rested and more balanced Washington team pulls away and wins this by at least a dozen points.

WASHINGTON (-6) 2500 Dime High Roller


2500 Dime High Roller Double Digit Cover

Minnesota (+4) vs Texas (127') @ Greensboro, NC

Minnesota is the better defensive club in this match-up and I love the Golden Gophers to use their defensive prowess to upend this Texas team that has really never pulled it altogether in a season after the club lost point guard D.J. Augustin early to the NBA draft. The Longhorns went just 7-7 SU in its final 14 games and went 7-8 SU and 5-9 ATS down the stretch versus teams with winning records. Texas, 1-5-1 ATS last seven games, also failed to win or cover in both games this year when installed as a neutral court chalk of 3 ½ to 6 points. Furthermore, this team has failed to cover in seven of its last eight outside of Austin and has negative spread marks both overall and when laying points. Minnesota went 12-0 SU and 5-2 ATS in non-conference games and this Minnesota team is glad to be in this spot. They believe in Tubby Smith, a championship winning coach who knows what to do this time of year. Look for the Gophers with Jamal Abu-Shamala and Klawrence Westbrook leading the defensive charge to frustrate the Horns and steal this outright win tonight.

MINNESOTA (+4) 2500 Dime High Roller


2500 Dime High Roller Double Digit Cover

Michigan (+5') vs Clemson (137') @ Kansas City

Clemson’s press is not working and the slumping Tigers will give up loads of dunks and layups tonight as Michigan wins this one outright. The Wolverines have committed fewer than 10 turnovers in four of their last five games as Jim Beilein’s club had been on runs of 5-2 SU and 6-1 ATS before falling to Illinois in the Big Ten tournament. This team believes in its second-year coach with his quirky offense and unorthodox 1-3-1 zone defense. Clemson finished the year on a 1-4 SU/ATS slide with the lone victory coming over lowly Virginia at home. They have negative spread marks overall, as a chalk, in non-conference games as well as being 1-3 ATS this year in neutral court affairs. Meanwhile, Michigan has beaten both Duke and UCLA this season and this solid outside shooting team should be able drain treys against a Tiger team that finished last in three-point shooting defense.. The Wolverines went 10-3 SU and 6-1 ATS in non-conference games and 4-0 SU and 2-0 ATS playing on five or six days rest. Clemson is struggling while DeShawn Sims, Manny Harris and the Wolverines are not as Michigan wins outright..

MICHIGAN (+5') 2500 Dime High Roller


2500 Dime High Roller Double Digit Cover

#4American (+17) vs Villanova (130) @ Philadelphia

This is a confident American team that will easily stay inside this bloated price tonight in Philly. The Patriot League champs easily stayed inside the number in last year’s respectable first round loss to Tennessee in a game the Eagles felt they should’ve won. Now with essentially the same returning cast back and riding a 13-game win streak (19-1 SU last 20), American will give the Wildcats all they can handle. Villanova has failed to cover in six of its last nine overall and is on further negative spread skids of 1-4 in neutral court games and 1-3 when laying more than 12 ½ points in neutral court contests. American starts five seniors and has an effective inside-outside combo of guard Garrison Carr and forward Brian Gilmore. They’ve already faced the likes of Oklahoma, Maryland and Georgetown this year and have covered five of their last eight neutral court games. Yes this game is in Philly, but look for the crowd to be rooting for the underdog as Scottie Reynolds and Villanova will be in for a fight and American easily scores this ATS win.

AMERICAN (+17) 2500 Dime High Roller


2500 Dime High Roller Double Digit Cover

Morgan State (+16) vs Oklahoma (136) @ Kansas City

Morgan State, the MEAC champs coached by former Cal coach Todd Bozeman, will no doubt stay inside this large spread tonight in Kansas City. The Bears won at Maryland this season as well as DePaul and Marshall and were competitive in losses at Ole Miss, Washington, Saint Mary’s and La Salle. Meanwhile, the Sooners finished on a 2-4 SU and 1-5 ATS swoon as the Sooners don’t have a deep bench and appear to be wearing down. They’ve also failed to cover in all three games this year playing on five or six days rest. Yes Blake Griffin will have a big game, but the Bears have a big man in Kevin Thompson who can take up room in the paint. The three-guard lineup that Bozeman relies on can make plays from the outside and it must be noted that MEAC teams have covered nine straight first-round Big Dance games (not including play-in games). The Bears are a solid defensive club (62 ppg, 40% shooting) and they’ll sag back on Griffin and force the cold-shooting Sooner guards to make shots from the outside. Morgan State point guard Jermaine Bolden is quick enough to handle the OU press and the Bears will stay inside the number tonight.

MORGAN STATE (+16) 2500 Dime High Roller

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 3-19-09

Tom Stryker
4 Wash-
3 BYU- Lost
3 UCLA-
3 IL-

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 3-19-09

Maddux Sports

Hockey
#13 - NHL - 3 units on St. Louis +165

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 3-19-09

Kelso 3/19
25 unit Gonzaga
10 unit ND
10 unit Vill
4 unit Morgan St
3 unit Illinois

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 3-19-09

ATS

5 Cal
5 Morgan St
4 VCU
4 Texas
4 Miss St

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 3-19-09

Paul Leiner: FADE AWAY

500* CBB Gonzaga -13

50* NBA Over 196.5 Atl/Dal

50* CBB Texas -4

50* CBB Western Kentucky +5

50* CBB Over 127 Butler/LSU

25* CBB Memphis -20

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 3-19-09

Billy Coleman

Postseason GOY

Notre Dame

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 3-19-09

purelock

penn st