Wednesday 2/21/24 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Jeremy Plonk: Saudi Cup Post Draw Reaction, Betting Info

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February 21, 2024 | By 1/ST BET
Led by Breeders’ Cup Classic / Florida Derby winner White Abarrio and Preakness / Pegasus World Cup champ National Treasure, a field of 14 (with one alternate) entered today for Saturday’s $20 million Saudi Cup, the world’s richest horse race. The sensational lineup also includes Pegasus World Cup runner-up Senor Buscador, Cigar Mile winner Hoist the Gold, Pennsylvania Derby victor Saudi Crown and the expatriated Hollywood Gold Cup winner Defunded.

With such American influence, attention on the Saudi Cup will be high when wagering is offered on the full, 9-race card from Riyadh Saturday, beginning at 7 am ET. Advance wagering on the full card from Saudi Arabia on Saturday will be available on both 1/ST BET and Xpressbet beginning Friday at 4 pm ET.

Horseplayers betting all of Saturday’s races from Saudi Arabia with 1/ST BET and Xpressbet can enjoy up to a $10 money-back special on win bets that finish second or third.

Japan seeks back-to-back Saudi Cup wins after Panthlalassa’s score in the race a year ago, and counters with a lineup that may even be superior to the Americans. Dubai World Cup winner Ushba Tesoro, Breeders’ Cup Classic runner-up Derma Sotogake and Japanese domestic dirt champion horse Lemon Pop are the headline acts. Japan secured 3 of the 6 races for Thoroughbreds on the 2023 Saudi Cup card and 4 of the top 5 placings in the $20 million main event.

The only American horse to win the first four Saudi Cup editions was Maximum Security in the 2020 inaugural when besting countrymate Midnight Bisou. Since, winners have been based in the UK, UAE and Japan.

The 1-1/8 miles distance of the Saudi Cup makes it a more tempo-driven ‘major’ than the 1-1/4 miles dirt showcases that tap stamina, such as the Dubai World Cup and Breeders’ Cup Classic. The track layout at King Abdulaziz Racecourse makes this a one-turn race with a tremendous run into the only turn, nullifying the significance of the post draw in terms of potential ground loss. There’s plenty of time to get position into the bend. Panthalassa won wire-to-wire last year from the rail draw.

The Americans certainly don’t lack for pace with front-running National Treasure, Hoist the Gold and Saudi Crown among the expected early flyers. Defunded comes off an extended layoff and could be fresh early for new connections since moving to the Middle East. He’s drawn just outside Hoist the Gold and National Treasure, who both have top-class speed. Saudi Crown in post 5 is inner-most of those front-runners and could take additional pressure. That group has the potential to hook up and increase the pace tempo. Irad Ortiz Jr. may use a bit more of White Abarrio than usual from a rail draw, but there’s a lot of real estate on the backstretch run.

$20 million Grade 1 Saudi Cup // Saturday // King Abdulaziz Racecourse // Post Time 12:40 pm ET US

** Note ** Betting numbers and post positions do not match. Post positions are listed in parentheses behind the betting numbers for each horse.

1 (14)-Carmel Road (Abdullah Albadah // Camilo Ospina)
2 (6)-Crown Pride (Koichi Shintani // Joao Moreira)
3 (9)-Defunded (Abdulaziz Khalid Mishref // Luis Saez)
4 (13)-Derma Sotogake (Hidetaka Otonashi // Christophe Lemaire)
5 (8)-Hoist the Gold (Dallas Stewart // John Velazquez)
6 (2)-Isolate (Doug Watson // Joel Rosario)
7 (3)-Lemon Pop (Hiroyasu Tanaka // Ryusei Sakai)
8 (12)-Meisho Hario (Inao Okada // Suguru Hamanaka)
9 (7)-National Treasure (Bob Baffert // Flavien Prat)
10 (10)-Power in Numbers (Ahmed Mohamoud // Adel Alfouraidi)
11 (5)-Saudi Crown (Brad Cox // Florent Geroux)
12 (4)-Senor Buscador (Todd Fincher // Junior Alvarado)
13 (11)-Ushba Tesoro (Noboru Takagi // Yuga Kawada)
14 (1)-White Abarrio (Rick Dutrow // Irad Ortiz Jr.)
15 (also-eligible)-Scotland Yard (Mutaeb Almulawah // TBD)

Wagering Details (with takeout):

All Races: $1 Win (17.5%), $1 Place (17.5%), $1 Exacta (19%), 20-cent Trifecta (25%), 10-cent Superfecta (25%)
Races 4-9: 50-cent Pick 6 (25%)
Races 4-6: 50-cent Pick 3 (25%)
Races 7-9: 50-cent Pick 3 (25%)
Races 5-6: $1 Daily Double (25%)
Races 8-9: $1 Daily Double (25%)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

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Mahoning Valley - Race #1

#4 Redden	He's sure to be a short price here, but I think he's going to be extremely tough to handle in the opener. Will lean here for any early multi-race plays.
#2 Sol of Vaquero	He seems like the most logical one if the top choice can't land this, as he has some occasional finishing form that should serve him well in a pretty modest race for the local level.
#3 Raise You One	He's back off a brief break while cutting back and getting Lasix, so maybe there is a little upside today -- probably a stretch to think it'll be enough to score, though.
Race Summary	Redden should be able to get home in the opener with a last running line that would be pretty tough if he were to repeat it or step forward from it at all. Short-priced chalk to kick off the card.

Mahoning Valley - Race #7

#2 Historyinthemaking	She was in improving form last year before the route dud here earlier this month, but her only other career route try was also terrible, so getting back to her best trip might wake her up in a hurry.
#3 Amy's Star	She's probably supposed to win this with anything like her last, and any improvement from there would make her a romping winner right back. Still, she's stepping up today and will be a short price trying winners.
#5 Spunky One	She's another with a little bounce-back potential while turning back to a sprint trip, but she needs something more like her debut if she's going to hang here. Demand a fair price -- she was up the track with similar at 34/1 earlier this month and now races for the third time in February.
Race Summary	Historyinthemaking should find a good spying spot and should be able to keep an eye on the chalk. Tossing her last and hoping her reliable sprint form shines through today.

Mahoning Valley - Race #8

#4 High Sisu	She was heading in the right direction against $20,000-25,000 maiden types before running up the track at Turfway -- forgiving dull runs in Florence is going to be a theme here for me -- and the addition of blinkers and Lasix might combine to get her back on track.
#8 Outspoken	He didn't seem to care for the synthetic footing at Turfway, but her two-back Churchill try was sharp enough that something similar might land this.
#3 Ava's Storm	Her dirt form has been pretty honest, and the overall page is pretty sharp once you draw a line through the Turfway try. In the mix after the loss at 6/5.
Race Summary	High Sisu is one of many in here with a flat recent trip over the synthetic surface at Turfway, and I think building on the two-back Horseshoe Indianapolis run while getting back on the dirt could make him interesting at a solid price.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

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Penn National - Race #1

#7 SEEKING THE DREAM (2-1)	Failed to sustain bid at quarter pole, hard to look past in this field.
#2 NO EASY ANSWER (4-1)	Lightly-raced 5-year-old has good first gear at proven distance.
#5 TERPEYE (8-1)	Closed ‘full of run’ after slow start to spring upset on sloppy track.
Race Summary	SEEKING THE DREAM, a model of consistency and $148k earner at 6F, returns to her level of claim off a useful return from an eight-month layoff. She meets mostly non-winners of 4 types and her class should prevail. Bet to win and place.

Penn National - Race #2

#5 TAPORICAL (5-1)	Back with own kind for new barn, encouraging gate move after ‘eased’ in latest.
#3 TAPACHILL (10-1)	Dull try in the slop, last-to-first maiden sprint win suggests distance could suit.
#1 MAGICAL MONARCH (3-1)	Demolished weak field at Parx on the class drop to this level.
Race Summary	TAPORICAL, eased in a one mile allowance at Aqueduct a month ago, worked in :48.1 from the Penn National gate recently, presumably for his new connections. He appears a good fit at this level and gets in light-weighted with second-time Lasix. Bet to win and place and play a 3,5/1,3,5/ALL trifecta.

Penn National - Race #4

#1 LORD IT’S CHILLY (8-1	Has ingredients to warrant price shot off pair of 5F gate works for his debut.
#6 NIGHTSCAPE (2-1)	Rallied for third in MSW debut for trainer who just notched his 1,000th win.
#4 TACTICAL HUMOR (4-1)	Chased 3-to-5 fave and ran third in debut, meets mostly first-time starters.
Race Summary	LORD IT’S CHILLY shows a steady work tab at Fair Hill for an 18-percent barn with maiden claimers. His dam finished in the money in 12 of 25 starts and topped $100,000 in earnings. Bet to win and place and play a 1-4-6 exacta box.

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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Charles Town

PURCHASE

Charles Town - Race 3	Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta / Daily Double (Races 3-4) Pick 3 (Races 3-4-5) / Pick 6 (Races 3-4-5-6-7-8)
Maiden Claiming $5,000 • 7 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3-6 • CR: 53 • Purse: $10,800 • Post: 7:57P
FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE, FOUR, FIVE, AND SIX YEARS OLD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000, IF FOR $4,500, ALLOWED 2 LBS.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Dominant Stalker. SELES is the Dominant Stalker of the race. * KEY ANGLES * SELES: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. CAUSETOWIN: Horse is dropping into a race which has an Class Rating at least five points lower than the Class Rating of its last race. Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. DREAM OF GOLD: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days.
8	SELES	5/1	5/2
10	CAUSETOWIN	8/1	9/1
6	DREAM OF GOLD	9/2	10/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
4	WALLAHOLLY	4	5/2	Front-runner	62	58	0.0	0.0	0.0
8	SELES	8	5/1	Alternator/Stalker	64	54	67.1	42.9	37.4
5	BEST WORST IDEA	5	4/1	Alternator/Trailer	61	53	49.0	34.8	27.3
6	DREAM OF GOLD	6	9/2	Alternator/Trailer	54	42	45.4	42.8	35.3
10	CAUSETOWIN	10	8/1	Alternator/Trailer	60	44	14.9	39.9	34.4
3	HEY MACARENA	3	15/1	Alternator/Trailer	47	39	10.2	34.5	20.0
2	HOLD THE NOTE	2	12/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	20.9	26.5	12.0
1	SUPER SNEAKY	1	12/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	14.9	32.7	22.7
9	DAYLIGHT QUEEN	9	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	1.4	4.3	0.0
7	SHEZA GRITTY BITTY	7	15/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	0.0	7.6	0.0

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Turf ParadisePURCHASE

Turf Paradise - Race 7	$1 Exacta / $1 Quinella / $.50 Trifecta / $.10 Superfecta $1 Double (Races 7-8)
Maiden Optional Claiming $30,0 • 5 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Age 3 • CR: 67 • Purse: $30,000 • Post: 3:50P
FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES THREE YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 121 LBS. OPTIONAL CLAIMING PRICE $30,000.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Dominant Class. ETHAN'S GIRL is the Dominant Class of the race. * KEY ANGLES * ETHAN'S GIRL: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse has the hi ghest average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. MUSICAL DIVA: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure a t the distance/surface.
1	ETHAN'S GIRL	5/2	2/1
3	MUSICAL DIVA	7/2	5/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
7	MY QUIET PLACE	7	9/2	Front-runner	0	0	92.9	45.5	38.5
3	MUSICAL DIVA	3	7/2	Front-runner	64	48	80.2	56.3	52.8
1	ETHAN'S GIRL	1	5/2	Trailer	82	77	37.0	66.8	63.8
4	ZACANGO PRIDE	4	10/1	Alternator/Non-contender	58	51	52.9	42.3	32.3
5	CAN'T WANT THAT	5	4/1	Alternator/Non-contender	61	56	49.2	44.4	36.4
6	PRAIRIE MOON	6	6/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	25.6	32.2	22.7

Unknown Running Style: ROCKY BAY RAE (5/1) [Jockey: Radke Kevin - Trainer: Lucarelli Frank].

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Mahoning Valley Race Course - Race #1 - Post: 12:45pm - Maiden Special - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $31,800 Class Rating: 43

Rating:

#5 FORMYBOYS (ML=3/1)


FORMYBOYS - Radosevich will try adding the 'hood' today in hopes of an improved performance.

Vulnerable Contenders: #4 REDDEN (ML=6/5), #2 SOL OF VAQUERO (ML=7/2), #1 RUNAWAY RUSSELL (ML=4/1),

REDDEN - I just don't have a good feeling about this vulnerable equine in this race. SOL OF VAQUERO - When looking at today's Equibase class figure, he will have to record a better speed rating than in the last race to vie in this dirt sprint. RUNAWAY RUSSELL - Most of the time I need a sprinter to have some recent success in short distance events in order to wager on him. This gelding has had a great number of attempts at Mahoning Valley Race Course and still no victories.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Putting our cash on #5 FORMYBOYS to win. Have to have odds of at least 1/1 or better though
EXACTA WAGERS:	Pass
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	None
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Penn National

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 5 - Allowance - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $35000 Class Rating: 70

FOR FILLIES THREE YEARS OLD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON A RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER, OR PENNSYLVANIA BRED. WEIGHT, 122 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JANUARY 21 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE DECEMBER 21 ALLOWED 4 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 2 SISTER COUSIN 5/2
# 4 LAVINIA SPIRIT 9/2
# 1 DAKOTA SPRINGS 3/1

I've got to go with SISTER COUSIN. Hernandez has a win percent of 16 over the last 30 days. Had one of the strongest speed figures of this group of animals in her last contest. Has decent Equibase Class Figures relative to this field - worth a look. LAVINIA SPIRIT - Should best this group here, showing formidable numbers of late. With a sound 63 average Equibase Speed Fig at the distance, seems well suited for today's contest. DAKOTA SPRINGS - The Lasix change (with second time Lasix) may spark a turnaround for this filly. The winning percentage shown by horses entered by Houghton running at this distance are the top in this field.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Tampa Bay Downs - Race #8 - Post: 4:00pm - Claiming - 7.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $20,500 Class Rating: 83

Rating:

#1 BOLD BLUE (ML=8/1)
#3 MAGIC HOOH (ML=6/1)
#4 STAR KANOO (ML=6/1)


BOLD BLUE - Have to give this gelding a good shot. Ran a nice effort in the last race within the last thirty days. I usually like playing sprint horses who are 3-4 races into a return to racing. MAGIC HOOH - Look at this gelding's PP lines. With each race he keeps getting closer. I think Pompay is making a good move here. This gelding can only benefit from the shorter distance. I think that a sprinter coming off a layoff will usually run his best in the 3rd or 4th start back. This horse has increased his speed ratings from a fig of 53 to 73 to 80 in a row. STAR KANOO - Should do well right here in this race. Weight shift of -6 from January 12th race at Tampa Bay Downs. Going on Lasix for the first time. While a general handicapping angle, it's still quite important.

Vulnerable Contenders: #10 SILVER STYLE (ML=3/1), #6 RANSEUR (ML=5/1), #9 MALIBU MIKE (ML=6/1),

SILVER STYLE - Would have to perk up off that fifth place finish last time to make an impact here. RANSEUR - This gelding finished off the board on January 21st and wasn't close to winning last race out either. This gelding hasn't had any recent success in short distance contests. Tough to bet on him in this event. Doubtful that the rating he recorded on Feb 7th will hold up in this race. MALIBU MIKE - The Brain cautions me to keep away from thoroughbreds in sprint races that haven't finished in the money in sprint events lately.

GUEST COMMENTARY: Hal - MAGIC HOOH - Betting the horse with the best last race speed figure is a good angle. None higher than this gelding's last one.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#1 BOLD BLUE to win at post-time odds of 7/2 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [1,3,4]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [1,3,4] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip
SUPER HIGH 5 WAGERS:	None

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Delta Downs

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 7 - Claiming - 7.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $11000 Class Rating: 87

FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT RUN 1ST, 2ND, OR, 3RD AT DELTA DOWNS SINCE OCTOBER 5, 2023. WEIGHT, 123 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,000 LOUISIANA BRED CLAIMING PRICE $5,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 6 STARBURST 8/5
# 5 MINT 12/1
# 1 AFFIRM CHIEF 4/1

I think STARBURST is a quite good choice. He has been racing solidly recently while recording solid speed figures. Has a very strong record at the distance and surface, which makes me have to support this gelding. Has been running soundly lately and should be on or close to the lead early on. MINT - May best this group here, showing very good numbers of late. Should be considered - I like the figures from the last contest. AFFIRM CHIEF - Formidable average Equibase Speed Figures in dirt sprint races make this animal a contender. Displays the look of a money-making play, averaging a solid 81 Equibase Speed Figure which is one of the most favorable in this group.