Thursday 2/22/24 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

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Fair Grounds - Race #6

#6 Tap Galore	Wonder if she has a small chance at a decent price today while getting what feels like a friendly race flow on paper. She got past a few horses in stakes company last year, so maybe she can settle and rally late.
#5 Freeburn	She's supposed to handle these on overall form after facing a group of older horses last time out and finishing in front of horses like Olivia G, a multiple stakes-placed runner. That said, there are a couple other fairly sharp forward players lined up, and I could see her having to work for it. Likely short price led me elsewhere.
#1 Lil Chilly	She moved up nicely on the main with that turf debut under her belt, and while I think the talent is there to score at this kind of level, I worry she's going to take the worst of it from the fence.
Race Summary	Tap Galore has a little appeal from off the pace, as I'm hoping a couple of the other forward players will make things tough enough on threats like Freeburn and Lil Chilly.

Fair Grounds - Race #7

#1 Hogslayers R I P	He makes enough sense that I don't think there is any way he's offering the 20/1 morning-line price while dropping in for a tag for the first time. He took a step forward last time out, and his two best career races came going long on this turf course. Love the class move in the very first start with Pessin as the owner/trainer after keeping this one in the barn out of the Lothenbach dispersal.
#3 Athens Moon	He has enough pace to find a good spot near the front early, but he has been giving away ground in the stretch call in recent races and might have some company from the stall outside him.
#8 Papa Jojo	I honestly expected better from him last time out when getting back on the grass, but he's worth at least another small look while dropping in for a tag with the locals. The Gulfstream turf tries from earlier this year might stack up OK if he can get back to them.
Race Summary	Hogslayers R I P might be able to find a cozy spot from the fence while tucked in behind the speed, and he's stretching out off what feels like a useful sprint run last out. I'll take my chances.

Fair Grounds - Race #8

#2 Empire's Best	His stablemate debuting on the fence looks like the main danger in a race that does not have a lot of pace, leaving this guy in line for a great run of things right up on the splits.
#1 Blood Brother	He'll go first out for a really capable team that tends to dominate these kinds of races locally at short prices, connecting at something like 50% over the last couple years here with similar runners. Expect one of these two to land it.
#4 Cathy's Boy	The debut was solid enough in that high-end claimer, but he turned in a total dud when getting over the local footing for the first time. He might run on with something better today, but a piece is probably the ceiling.
Race Summary	Empire's Best is typically a risky bet late, but he was a good fit at this level on the rise last time out and should be able to either control the tempo or sit right off his stablemate from the fence if that one wants to go early. Unless you've got a strong price opinion somewhere else in the sequence and you just absolutely have to get through this leg, I think you have to pick one of the two from the Cox barn and roll the dice.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

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Gulfstream Park - Race #1

#5 CHANNEL LOOP (6-1)	Gets pace to rally into, has good all-weather track route race to summon.
#2 BONMATI (7-2)	Set pace, finished on wrong end of photo finishes in 3 of last 4 starts.
#1 WHO LADY WHO (9-2)	True colors showed with alert start in second go-round, ran second.
Race Summary	CHANNEL LOOP followed the move of the winning favorite when third on the all-weather track two starts ago. She took money six weeks later in a turf route, lacked stretch kick, but earned her top speed figure. She projects an ideal trip and is worth a win and place bet.

Gulfstream Park - Race #2

#2 TIZ ERIN (4-1)	Seeks duplicate of one-mile grass race in the fall, had trouble in 5-1/2F return.
#3 KITTEN’S WAR (8-1)	Dam ran 1-2 in MSW company to start her career for the same barn.
#1 NAA DUDETTE (2-1)	Piled up the checks on turf for higher tags, returns to level of claim.
Race Summary	TIZ ERIN’S lone route attempt – and only start last year as a 3-year-old – was a good one as she rallied to finish second to Goodbetterbest (13/2-5-3, $73k), a runaway winner in a $12,500 claiming race recently. Bet to win and place.

Gulfstream Park - Race #4

#2 TAPIT’S DIRECTION (7-	Changes riders again, breezed in :35-3/5, trouble-free run the key.
#4 TIZADUKE (4-1)	Second in 3 of last 9 starts, gets in light-weighted.
#6 BATTALION BOUND (9-2)	Moved into slow pace, flattened out in first long-distance test.
Race Summary	TAPIT’S DIRECTION can’t seem to avoid trouble lines and has never gone a route of ground, but she ‘stayed on’ well from post 9 to finish second in a long sprint to begin her 4-year-old season and could work out an ideal stalking trip with an alert start in her third start of a cycle. Bet to win and place.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Turfway Park

PURCHASE

Turfway Park - Race 6	Exacta / 50 cent Trifecta / 10 cent Superfecta / Double 50 cent Pick 3 (Races 6-7-8) / 50 cent Pick 4 (Races 6-7-8-9)
Maiden Claiming $15,000 • 1 Mile • All-Weather • Ages 3 and up • CR: 77 • Purse: $24,000 • Post: 8:25P
FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $15,000, FOR EACH $2,500 TO $10,000 1 LB.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Lone Stalker. GIRL GOODBYE is the Lone Stalker of the race. * KEY ANGLES * GIRL GOODBYE: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. RESILIENT BEAUTY: Horse ranks in t he top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. PITTORE D'ORO: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. TRES CHIC (ARG): Horse ran ks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse has a 4F workout since its last race, and the workout time is faster than its own half-mile time in its last race.
3	GIRL GOODBYE	5/2	5/2
5	RESILIENT BEAUTY	3/1	7/1
7	PITTORE D'ORO	5/1	10/1
4	TRES CHIC (ARG)	6/1	10/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
2	PEEPING	2	12/1	Front-runner	0	0	82.5	42.7	32.2
5	RESILIENT BEAUTY	5	3/1	Front-runner	0	0	78.3	67.3	61.3
3	GIRL GOODBYE	3	5/2	Alternator/Stalker	76	80	71.8	65.0	60.5
4	TRES CHIC (ARG)	4	6/1	Trailer	70	59	49.3	55.9	49.4
7	PITTORE D'ORO	7	5/1	Alternator/Trailer	76	77	69.4	50.1	40.1
6	LITERARY	6	7/2	Alternator/Non-contender	61	62	75.0	55.6	49.1
1	MISS DIAMOND RICH	1	6/1	Alternator/Non-contender	61	45	53.6	54.8	43.8

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Penn NationalPURCHASE

Penn National - Race 3	W-P-S/ Exacta / $0.50 Trifecta / $0.10 Superfecta / Daily Double Pick 3 (Races 3-4-5) / Hollywood Hi 5
Claiming $16,000 • 1 Mile • Dirt • Ages 4 and up • CR: 87 • Purse: $23,000 • Post: 6:58P
(PLUS UP TO 40% PABF) FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE SINCE AUGUST 22 OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES. WEIGHT, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE JANUARY 22 ALLOWED 2 LBS. SUCH A RACE SINCE DECEMBER 22 ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $16,000, IF FOR $14,000, ALLOWED 2 LBS. (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $12,500 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ELIGIBILITY).

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * DREAMING OF GERRY: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has the high est TrackMaster Power Rating. GRAB THE GOLD: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. EVENT PARTY: Horse racing off a layoff of 90+ days and trainer's win percentage with horses c oming off a layoff is at least 25. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. P JS SILVER DUKE: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. Horse's average winn ing distance is within half a furlong of today's distance (within 50 yards if a Quarter Horse race).
10	DREAMING OF GERRY	5/2	5/1
3	GRAB THE GOLD	3/1	5/1
6	EVENT PARTY	8/1	8/1
5	P JS SILVER DUKE	12/1	10/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
3	GRAB THE GOLD	3	3/1	Front-runner	88	85	77.4	81.7	75.7
1	HERE'S WALDO	1	6/1	Front-runner	90	91	44.8	65.0	55.0
9	JUST GOT STARTED	9	6/1	Stalker	80	81	75.4	68.7	54.2
5	P JS SILVER DUKE	5	12/1	Alternator/Stalker	92	87	60.0	74.8	65.3
6	EVENT PARTY	6	8/1	Alternator/Stalker	90	76	54.4	80.0	67.0
10	DREAMING OF GERRY	10	5/2	Trailer	95	90	72.2	83.6	81.6
7	PRATT	7	10/1	Trailer	82	75	48.8	73.6	59.6
4	STRAWBERRY TREAT	4	12/1	Alternator/Trailer	95	83	57.6	77.8	67.8
8	REDEEM EDDIE	8	12/1	Alternator/Trailer	84	77	45.5	75.0	64.0
2	PRINCE KHOZAN	2	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	83	76	60.1	52.9	34.4

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Charles Town - Race #8 - Post: 10:17pm - Maiden Claiming - 4.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $16,600 Class Rating: 61

Rating:

#8 Z MYSTIQUE (ML=9/2)
#1 MOONSET (ML=7/5)
#10 ROBBEDINTHEBAHAMAS (ML=9/2)


Z MYSTIQUE - Nunez was aboard this gelding last out and was impressed enough to take the equine right back. This rider and handler have a favorable return on investment when they combine forces. The February 10th affair at Charles Town was at a class level of (66). Dropping down in class ranks considerably, so he should be in a good place. Trainer, Viands, has been deliberate with this gelding off the layoff. Look for a solid effort today. MOONSET - Have to like this gelding today. If you take a look at his PP lines you see a definite trend, getting closer with each and every race. After the event aboard this horse on February 10th, the jockey is going to be in tune with the gelding much better. Trainer Frock moves this horse down the class scale to face a weaker class today. Look for a nice performance in this race. A campaigner coming back this soon after a nice contest is a good sign. The 61 last race speed fig looks strong in the TrackMaster PPs. ROBBEDINTHEBAHAMAS - I really like that recent effort on Feb 3rd at Charles Town where he ended up third. This gelding is rounding his way back into shape. Should run well today.

Vulnerable Contenders: #12 WHISKEY AND WINE (ML=4/1), #3 TIZAFASTBULLET (ML=5/1), #6 COOLKID (ML=6/1),

WHISKEY AND WINE - Unlikely for this one to make an impact with no recent success in a sprint event. TIZAFASTBULLET - The Brain tells me to stay away from ponies in short distance contests that haven't hit the board in sprint affairs of late. This colt recorded a speed figure in his last affair which probably isn't good enough today. COOLKID - Hasn't hit the board in any short distance contests of late. Doubtful to see him doing it today either. Didn't finish in the money on Feb 1st at Charles Town. Followed it up with another lackluster outing.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Play #8 Z MYSTIQUE to win if you can get odds of 4/1 or more
EXACTA WAGERS:	None
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [1,8,10] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Gulfstream Park

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 1 - Maiden Claiming - 8.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $35000 Class Rating: 81

FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES THREE YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 118 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $35,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 2 BONMATI 7/2
# 6 LOOKS LUCKY TO ME 6/1
# 5 CHANNEL LOOP 6/1

BONMATI is my choice. Should be carefully examined based on the competitive speed figure garnered in the last affair. Demonstrates the look of a lucrative play, averaging a solid 71 speed figure which is one of the top in this group of horses in this race. Earnings per start in dirt route races is sound for this racer. LOOKS LUCKY TO ME - Displays solid speed figs on average overall when compared with the rest of this group. Hard to pass on this filly with Ortiz in the saddle. CHANNEL LOOP - Change in Lasix (with second time Lasix) may be the recipe to a turnaround. Ran a strong last race.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Turf Paradise - Race #6 - Post: 3:19pm - SO - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $18,000 Class Rating: 86

Rating:

#7 LATER DAYS (ML=5/1)
#5 THREAD COUNT (ML=5/2)


LATER DAYS - I really like sprinters that make a quick turnaround. I took a look at this mare's finishes. She's almost always in the top three. Silva has an 'uncoupled' entry here. Best to be wary of the longer priced half. THREAD COUNT - You have to like that last race speed figure, 78, which is the highest most recent race speed rating of this field. Look at this pattern of improvement. 59/64/78 are the last 3 Equibase speed figs.

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 COME CORRECT (ML=3/1), #4 MARY WALKER (ML=4/1), #2 CRIMINAL RECORD (ML=5/1),

COME CORRECT - Notched a mediocre speed fig last race out in an $8,000 Claiming race on Feb 6th. Not probable to see an improved performance off of that figure. MARY WALKER - Will be hard for this thoroughbred to beat this field off of that last speed rating. Doubtful to improve enough to run a figure anywhere near today's class rating, so put her on the possibly overvalued equines list. CRIMINAL RECORD - Difficult to wager on this pony today. Make her show you something in a sprint contest before you invest in her in a race of 5 1/2 furlongs. 78/57/36, are the deteriorating speed figures for this horse. Improbable that the fig she notched on November 11th will be enough in this race.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Have to go with #7 LATER DAYS on the win end if we get at least 7/5 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [5,7]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	None
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Delta Downs

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 3 - Maiden Claiming - 5.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $12000 Class Rating: 57

FOR ACCREDITED LA BRED MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 120 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 2 MALADJUSTED MISFIT 3/1
# 11 KNIGHT'S GOLD 15/1
# 1 MAGNOLIA SPEED 5/1

My choice in here is MALADJUSTED MISFIT. KNIGHT'S GOLD - With a formidable 54 average speed figure at the distance, seems well suited for today's race. MAGNOLIA SPEED - Will more than likely be one of the early speedsters of the pack going into the halfway point of the contest.