Monday 3/4/24 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-04-2024, 10:13 AM

Jeff Siegel's What You Need to Know - Santa Anita - 3/4/24

March 4, 2024
Jeff Siegel’s 1/ST Glance: Santa Anita – Monday, March 4, 2024

RACE 1

4-MARINAS TINA
Degree of confidence: B

• Makes the all-important drop from maiden to maiden claiming.
• Away for 11 months, steady work tab for return at Los Alamitos.
• High percentage barn has strong stats with the comebacker angle.

Others to consider: none.

RACE 2

3-DREAM PRINCESS
Degree of confidence: C

• Originally claimed for $100,00 by Sadler; huge drop off a layoff.
• Shows a prior win over this track and distance way back in 2022.
• Recent work pattern is spotty by J. Hernandez knows her well.

Others to consider: 5-Flatterwithjewels.

RACE 3

1-ONE TIME MARK
Degree of confidence: B

• Away since November of 2022 but returns protected by Glatt.
• Barn has sensational record (29%) with runners off a layoff.
• Good inside draw, very likely to employ gate-to-wire tactics.

Others to consider: 5-Captain Choochies.

RACE 4

4-PRINCE PRANCEALOT
Degree of confidence: B-

• Led the way into the stretch but weakened late in grass sprint.
• Back on dirt and was beaten a neck facing similar two races back.
• Retains top speed rider E. Maldonado; appears the one to catch.

Others to consider: 3-Refocus.

RACE 5

3-AVOIR
Degree of confidence: C+

• Shows decent form over the local lawn; first time in for a tag.
• Retains top rider Juan Hernandez; has edge in speed figures.
• However, may not be one to trust; is a twice beaten favorite.

Others to consider: 9-Ms McWhinney; 6-Smooth as Butter.

RACE 6

1-DE JORIA
Degree of confidence: B-

• Re-equipped with blinkers, returns to dirt, lands the good rail.
• Will settle in the second flight and enjoy a ground saving trip.
• Has several figures that can win but is winless for a long time.

Others to consider: 3-Yvett’s Surprise.

RACE 7

3-MS. BRIGHTSIDE (Ire)
Degree of confidence: B

• First two local starts were two-turning, shortens to a sprint today.
• Sharp winner in debut going short in Ireland; gets ideal conditions.
• Likely will receive patient tactics and then be cut loose in the lane.

Others to consider: 1-Invincible Molly (GB).

RACE 8

4-COWBOY MIKE
Degree of confidence: B

• Logical class drop into a $32,000 claimer; appears well-spotted.
• Most effective when sent early to gain a favorable pressing position.
• Freshened for almost three months; shows a healthy recent tab.

Others to consider: 3-Giovinazzo.

RACE 9

1-WHEN HEROES FLY
Degree of confidence: C+

• Respectable third in a similar maiden claiming turf miler last start.
• Lands the rail, projects to be in the fray with a good break from gate.
• Making just his third career start, so there is room for improvement.

Others to consider: 6-Potential Spam; 8-Gold Foot.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-04-2024, 10:14 AM

Al Cimaglia: Yonkers Raceway Late Pick 4 Analysis

March 4, 2024 | By Al Cimaglia
Yonkers Raceway begins the week with a 12-race card. The 0.50 Pick 5 with a $10,000 guaranteed pool rolls in Race 5. The $1.00 Late Pick 4 starts in Race 9, and it will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 9 (9:40 PM EST)

2-Idealsomemagic A (5-1) Raced from the back but did close nicely in the first start since 12-18. George Brennan should be more aggressive tonight and certainly could handle this kind if dialed on high.
5-Covered Bridge (5/2)-Left hard from the outside 2 and 3 back and won each time. On Feb 12 took back and then rallied to finish 3rd. Often veterans don’t continually leave hard from the outside week after week. Now the classy 8-yr-old has been off for about 3 weeks and is a main threat if Jordan Stratton has the pedal down off the gate.

Race 10 (10:00 PM EST)

2-Caughtinalandslide (8/5)-Put in a needed start on 2-26, that was the 1st race since the Holiday Break. Drops to soft spot and Jason Bartlett will steer again. If 100% healthy, should be tight enough to down this crew.

Race 11 (10:20 PM EST)

2-Greg The Leg (5/2)-Drops after getting on the point and almost lasted but Nandolo N was too good. Nothing to be ashamed of, and now lands at a better level to seal the deal. Does have good gate speed but can come off cover to win as well.
3-Deetzy (5/2)-Beat this kind 2 back and gets a pilot change with Bartlett taking over for Brent Holland who sticks with the one above. The Paul Stafford entry should be a major threat but will need the right trip.

Race 12 (10:40 PM EST)

1-Just Enuff Stuff (5-1)-Draws the rail and the Jenn and Joe entry may have met a beatable field. The pedal should be down from the word "go" and can take a picture if stands tall down the lane.
2-My Ultimate Star A (4-1)-Left from post 6 and rallied off cover but finished 3rd, a length back. They went to the half in 57.3 last time and my thinking is tonight the fractions will be livelier. Makes the 2nd start after a claim for the Dilloian barn and this race may set-up more favorably.

$1.00 Late Pick 4

2,5/2/2,3/1,2
Total Bet=$8

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-04-2024, 10:14 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Mahoning Valley - Race #3

#7 Mo Snow	Cutback player ran OK in a couple sprint tries with similar recently, and I'm wondering if something like the three-back effort might do the trick here if he can get back to it.
#5 El Bandido	He makes a lot of sense here on the drop with his better stuff, but he has already had some chances at this kind of level before, and I'm not sure it's great to see him plummet in class again after a couple dull tries.
#3 Father of Lies	He's another who is dangerous with his best, but he tends to give away ground late in his races and probably has a little company early again. In the mix.
Race Summary	Mo Snow might be able to spring a mild upset in here with a couple interesting back races, and I'm hoping the presence of the other listed pair will keep the price playable.

Mahoning Valley - Race #7

#1 Shewearsmyring	She hasn't shown much in those first two starts with winners, but she gets back around two turns where she graduated a few starts back, and maybe she wakes up here at a decent price.
#6 Cheru	She's probably tough with anything like that last one when she drilled a cheaper claiming group in her local debut, but she's probably going to get bet again and has at least a tiny bit of proving to do on the rise.
#3 Islandinthestream	She finished behind the top choice when they met here in December, and she came back to graduate in her next local start after an unproductive trip to Turfway and Laurel. One of the ones.
Race Summary	Shewearsmyring hasn't shown up with much since facing winners, but she might get a decent trip from the inside and has some upside while getting back around two turns.

Mahoning Valley - Race #8

#6 Gold Honey	She started putting things together last year, and her overall form seems competitive while stepping back into stakes company. Forgive the two-back route try and her form is pretty solid.
#4 Gunner Gabriel	Forward player is one of the obvious ones today with a solid recent running line with allowance company. Mild worry that an early battle might develop.
#3 Kissing Medals	She got tired late in the debut run, but she's back in a tougher spot with some presumable upside at second asking. Wouldn't be totally shocked to see her step up enough for a small piece of this.
Race Summary	Gold Honey gets a slight call in here off a solid score earlier in the meet, and she should be in line for a great trip pressing the early leaders.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-04-2024, 10:14 AM

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Turf Paradise - Race #4

#2 BAYOU CHROME (5-2)	Arrives in good form for seasonal debut, projects ideal trip.
#6 IMPASSIONED CLAIM (10-1)	Could revert to off-pace tactics that led to 23-1 upset two back.
#3 LOUDMOUTHSOUP (2-1)	Won allowance here as 2yo, ran mostly in stakes since then.
Race Summary	BAYOU CHROME got up to finish second to a repeat winner two back, then overcame a slow pace to earn his top speed figure in a 7-1/2F victory at Delta Downs. He should get a faster pace to rally into and should offer a fair price with class-plunging LOUDMOUTHSOUP drawing a lot of attention. Bet to win and place.

Turf Paradise - Race #5

#3 DELTA DELTA (9-2)	Late foot for second behind loose leader, steps up in class.
#4 STREETLIGHT PEOPLE (5-2)	Came under ride on turn at one mile before fave passed by.
#2 BLUEGRASS RYDER (9-5)	Chased 1-to-9 winner for higher tag in first start locally.
Race Summary	DELTA DELTA adapted well to his new surroundings, rallying 4- to 6-wide and gaining late on the 5-2 winner at 4-1/2F. The added ground and cleaner start could lead to a maiden-breaking victory. Play a 3-ALL exacta.

Turf Paradise - Race #6

#7 CLUBHOUSE DRAMA (7-2)	Exits MSW ranks, can see how speed-laden field unfolds from post 7.
#4 LUPITA (5-1)	Rallied for pair of seconds sprinting, dueled and gave way in lone try at distance.
#2 SAILING AWAY (2-1)	Dueled on outside up backstretch, just missed with Lasix after two months idle.
Race Summary	No lack of speed in this one, with several stretch-out sprinters trying to go one mile. Thinking CLUBHOUSE DRAMA will settle off the pace from her outside post and launch a strong rally on the class drop. Her dam won first-out at 6-1/2F. Bet to win and place.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-04-2024, 10:16 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Equibase Special

PURCHASE

Equibase Special - Race 3	Leg 3 of the Santa Anita All Turf Pick 3
Maiden Claiming $50,000 • 1 Mile • Turf • Age 3 • CR: 98 • Purse: $37,000 • Post: 4:46P
SA - R9 - (RAIL AT 20 FEET). FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 121 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $50,000, IF FOR $45,000, ALLOWED 2 LBS.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Paceless Race. There is no true early speed in this race. * KEY ANGLES * WHEN HEROES FLY: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. POTENTIAL SPAM: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. GOLD FOOT: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface . Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. GORILLA BOY: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surf ace.
1	WHEN HEROES FLY	4/1	9/2
6	POTENTIAL SPAM	6/1	5/1
8	GOLD FOOT	7/2	7/1
7	GORILLA BOY	5/1	8/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	WHEN HEROES FLY	1	4/1	Alternator/Stalker	98	85	83.1	78.8	74.8
8	GOLD FOOT	8	7/2	Alternator/Stalker	94	83	66.3	79.3	71.3
7	GORILLA BOY	7	5/1	Trailer	90	79	75.3	74.0	69.0
4	TRANSCENDENTAL	4	4/1	Alternator/Trailer	0	0	96.7	77.7	66.2
6	POTENTIAL SPAM	6	6/1	Alternator/Trailer	91	88	75.0	84.8	76.8
2	UPLIFT	2	15/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	89.1	61.6	49.6
10	GAZON (GB)	10	15/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	72.6	72.6	65.6
5	GOOD AT BEING BAD	5	15/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	43.6	43.6	31.6
3	TIGER BY THE TAIL	3	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	29.8	29.8	12.8

Unknown Running Style: WRONG DIRECTION (6/1) [Jockey: Laprida Jeremy - Trainer: McCarthy Michael W].

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-04-2024, 10:16 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Will Rogers DownsPURCHASE

Will Rogers Downs - Race 3	$2 Exacta / (.50) Trifecta / $2 Daily Double / (.50) Pick 3 (Races 3-4-5)
Allowance • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 92 • Purse: $30,000 • Post: 2:09P
FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON TWO RACES OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER, OR OKLAHOMA STATE BRED ALLOWANCE SINCE SEPTEMBER 4, 2023 OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF $30,000 IN 2023 - 2024 ALLOWED 3 LBS.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Lone Front-runner. MAMASHAVNAHOTFLASH is the Lone Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * TIFFANY TWIST: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. THE TRUTHISTHETRUTH: Horse had a bullet workout within the last seven days. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. MAMASHAVNAHOTFLASH: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equiba se Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
5	TIFFANY TWIST	6/5	3/1
2	THETRUTHISTHETRUTH	4/5	7/2
3	MAMASHAVNAHOTFLASH	8/1	9/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
3	MAMASHAVNAHOTFLASH	3	8/1	Front-runner	76	64	69.0	51.6	45.1
2	THETRUTHISTHETRUTH	2	4/5	Stalker	91	76	62.5	78.4	74.9
5	TIFFANY TWIST	5	6/5	Alternator/Stalker	92	79	52.8	83.4	80.4
1	WHEN JUDY CALLS	1	12/1	Alternator/Non-contender	73	57	59.4	60.6	53.1
4	PREACH IT GIRL	4	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	67	63	45.8	41.2	31.7

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-04-2024, 10:16 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Mahoning Valley Race Course - Race #5 - Post: 2:46pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $19,500 Class Rating: 57

Rating:

#7 YOU NAME IT (ML=5/1)

YOU NAME IT - Strong return on investment for this jockey and trainer pair. Was in a $10,000 Claiming race at Mahoning Valley Race Cour in the last race. That race had a class figure of 64 and she is moving down in this field. A certain serious competitor.

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 ONE RICH KITTEN (ML=5/2), #1 ANGEL'S DESTINY (ML=3/1), #4 BONNIE'S BEST (ML=4/1),

ONE RICH KITTEN - Hard to wager on at 5/2 odds after the two most recent outings. This filly hasn't had any recent favorable outcomes in short distance races. No picnic to wager on her in this contest. Finished fourth in her most recent effort with a somewhat easily forgotten speed figure. When I look at today's Equibase class figure, it would take an improved performance to win after that in this bunch. ANGEL'S DESTINY - Last speed figure of 48 may not be for real since it was on a sloppy track. BONNIE'S BEST - Don't believe this questionable contender will make an impact in today's race. That last speed fig was disappointing when compared with today's class figure.

GUEST COMMENTARY: The Brain - YOU NAME IT - A pace examination shows this equine should have the pace to wire this field.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Bet on #7 YOU NAME IT to win if we can get at least 1/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	7 with [2,8]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-04-2024, 10:16 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Parx Racing

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 1 - SO - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $28000 Class Rating: 78

FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR $25,000 OR LESS AND WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OR CLAIMING PRICE $25,000 AND WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. WEIGHT, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE FEBRUARY 4 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $25,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 6 FERRARI KID 15/1
# 2 GOODTIMETOBEIRISH 2/1
# 8 TRAFFIC MASTER 6/1

I think FERRARI KID is a quite good choice especially at a long price. There is a quite good chance that this entry's late pace will improve with second time Lasix. Recent figures for the jockey - 16 win percent - make this gelding stand out in this group. GOODTIMETOBEIRISH - As of late Russell has provided wagerers with a solid winning percentage with horses travelling in dirt sprint races. Should go to the front end and should never look back. TRAFFIC MASTER - This field of horses is much less demanding than the last one he faced. Has longshot possibilities and could score at a big price.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-04-2024, 10:16 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Turf Paradise - Race #4 - Post: 2:22pm - Claiming - 6.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $13,500 Class Rating: 78

Rating:

#4 BEAU MISCHIEF (ML=5/1)
#3 LOUDMOUTHSOUP (ML=2/1)
#1 PRINCE OTTO (ML=9/2)
#2 BAYOU CHROME (ML=5/2)

BEAU MISCHIEF - Every now and then I take some time off, when I come back to the track I feel refreshed. I think it's the same with this gelding as he always seems to run well after a layoff. This gelding was sharp enough to post a 'top two' workout recently. I think he's ready for today's event. LOUDMOUTHSOUP - Taking a trip to a lower class rank; has the power to make his presence felt. This horse brings in a lot of cash per race around the track. Utmost in this race. PRINCE OTTO - When this rider and trainer work together you have to take a look. Lull and Esquibel have been wonderful together. I am keen on that most recent effort on February 20th at Turf Paradise where he ran third. BAYOU CHROME - This jock and trainer have a fabulous winning percent when they work together. Horse has improved at least two speed fig points in last two races. I look for that to continue to trend in a positive direction right here.

Vulnerable Contenders: #5 TEAGANS ATM (ML=6/1),

TEAGANS ATM - The move down the stretch drive on January 13th indicated to me that this animal will have a tough go of it versus this group of stiffer competition. Pedestrian speed fig in the last race at Los Alamitos (Quarter Hor at 4 1/2 furlongs. Don't believe this entrant will improve too much in today's event.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Put your money on #4 BEAU MISCHIEF on the nose if you can get odds of 9/2 or more
EXACTA WAGERS:	Pass
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-04-2024, 10:17 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Santa Anita

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 3 - Maiden Special Weight - 8.0f on the Turf. Purse: $65000 Class Rating: 94

FOR MAIDENS, FOUR AND FIVE YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 124 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 5 CAPTAIN CHOOCHIES 9/5
# 3 PALAGIO 7/2
# 1 ONE TIME MARK 5/2

CAPTAIN CHOOCHIES has a very good shot to take this race. Papaprodromou has him trained solidly to break swiftly out of the starting gate. The speed rating of 96 from his last race looks competitive in here. Has to be given a shot against this field displaying decent figs lately and an average Equibase Speed Figure of 93 under similar conditions. PALAGIO - With one of the best jocks in terms of gains at the window, don't count this gelding out. Aguirre has him trained strongly to break swiftly out of the gate. ONE TIME MARK - Glatt has this gelding racing well and is a very strong selection based on the formidable Equibase Speed Figs put up in route races lately. Always good to invest in a conditioner with this kind of very good win percentage - 22 percent - at this distance & surface.